Second deadliest tornado of 2010 kills 5 in Ohio; oil spill update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:00 PM GMT on June 07, 2010

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The second deadliest tornado of 2010 hit Millbury, Ohio, about 10 miles southeast of Toledo, on Saturday night, killing five. The deaths brought this year's tornado death toll to 23, which is, fortunately, well below the approximately 70 deaths we expect to see by mid-June, based on averages from the past three tornado seasons. The deadliest tornado of 2010 was the EF-4 Yazoo City, Mississippi tornado in April, which killed ten. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 55 tornado reports on Saturday, plus 104 reports of damaging winds and 16 of large hail. The tornadoes hit Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. Ohio's killer tornado was preliminarily rated a high-end EF-3 with 165 mph winds, but has now been upgraded to an EF-4 with 175 mph winds. An EF-3 tornado also hit Indiana near Grissom Air Force Base on Saturday, and two EF-3 tornadoes were reported in Illinois, one near St. Anne, and one in Livingston County. Here in Michigan, I found myself making some very late night calls at 12:30 am on Sunday to warn relatives about the Doppler radar signatures of rotating supercells bearing down on them. Hardest hit was the town of Dundee, south of Ann Arbor. An EF-2 tornado swept through the town, damaging Michigan's most visited tourist attraction, Cabela's sporting goods store on US-23. An EF-1 tornado also damaged a building at the Fermi II Nuclear Power Plant on Lake Erie, forcing an automatic shutdown of the nuclear reactor.


Figure 1. Severe weather reports for Saturday, June 5, 2010. Image credit: NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Oil spill update
Light winds of 5 - 10 knots today will turn to southeasterly Tuesday through Wednesday, then southerly on Thursday through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that the ocean currents that have carried oil eastward along the Florida Panhandle coast will weaken this week, making it unlikely that oil will penetrate farther eastwards than Panama City, Florida. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a return to a southeastery wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.


Figure 2. The oil spill on June 5, 2010 at 11:49pm EDT, as seen by Sythetic Aperature Radar (SAR) imagery from the European Space Agency's ENVISAT satellite. Image credit: University of Miami Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters
I'll have a new post on Tuesday. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. Also on Tuesday, I'll be continuing our experiment with my live Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays during hurricane season. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology last month

Tomorrow's show, which will probably be just 1/2 hour, will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast, as last week's show was.

Jeff Masters

Massive Thunderhead! (utjazzfan)
Mike shot only the top quarter of this storm cell... Quite a sight!
Massive Thunderhead!
()
June 5th Tornado (MsWickedWitch)
Near Peoria IL
June 5th Tornado
Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage (weatherwatcher24)
More damage, but other areas were much worse.
Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage

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PensacolaDoug and CycloneOz (with a bull red) that was caught off of Dewberry's dock in Warrington, FL. Mrs. Mary Dewberry (deceased 2009) took the photo.



This fish was actually prepped by me and was served to the Dewberry's that night for dinner.

This picture was in the Dewberry's home when Hurricane Ivan destroyed it. The picture was found some weeks later in a vast debris field and is now a hurricane souvenir.
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Quoting MrstormX:


Nothing much at this point.
i looked on rainblo0w satellite imagery and I couldn't help but notice the profound deep convection over the eastern Pacific, Panama, and Costa Rica. I can't do much analysis now (I'm in the slow computer in my grandparents' house, lol) but when I get home I'll do more analysis on it and have a blog post later in the evening.


There's decent 850 MB vortcity around the convection, but it lacks organization and looks quite cluttered.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Jeff9641:


It has rained here in Longwood (north Orlando) for 9 out of the last 10 days totaling 4.40" with 31.70" for the year. Now that is amazing for early June. I have never seen this much for the first 6 months of the year.


Hear ya. Is that old Plantation Restaurant still open near there. Think it was an old doctor's house originally. Best fried chicken, I ever had.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26522
Quoting CycloneOz:
There was one instance though I'd like to share.
Back when we were kids, I caught a whole bunch of croakers near Dewberry's dock. I filled up a Styrofoam ice chest with them.
When I got home, I put the fish at the end of a concrete pad that extended away from the utility room.
Seven days later, I was getting into a car when I smelled something awful. As I looked around to see where the smell was coming from, I spotted the Stryofoam ice chest still sitting where I had put it a week earlier full of fish.
OMG, I thought. I went over and carefully ticked off the lid.
Inside the chest was one of the most horrible things I have ever seen.
Thousands of maggots moved up from the edges of the ice chest and then down to the center. It was relentless. It was fast-paced. And the sights and smells made me gag.
I ran to the utility room and grabbed a can of gasoline. It wasn't a minute later and I was pouring the stuff right into the chest.
Life lessons quickly followed.
1) Did you know that gasoline eats through Styrofoam?
I did not, not until that gob of goo exploded out onto the concrete pad, all over my shoes.
After puking from "the reveal," and with my brothers laughing their heads off, I torched the sickening mess.
There was a "whupping" involved later when Dad saw it after smelling it, too.


ROFLMFAO!!!! That was quite possibly one of the funniest yet nastiest things I've heard in quite a while. Holy cow that must have sucked...
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Some of you folks need to go the Mythbusters web site and search for "gasoline."

Gas is actually hard to ignite. Even if you somehow manage to ignite it at the mouth of a gas can, the can doesn't explode. It just flames away at the opening. You'll have plenty of time to get away before the plastic is compromised.

Plastic is non-conductive, which means as long as you're not banging the nozzle around, there is zero possibility of static discharge when filling, whether on the roof or not.

In all my years "handling gasoline," I've never had a "serious accident."

There was one instance though I'd like to share.

Back when we were kids, I caught a whole bunch of croakers near Dewberry's dock. I filled up a Styrofoam ice chest with them.

When I got home, I put the fish at the end of a concrete pad that extended away from the utility room.

Seven days later, I was getting into a car when I smelled something awful. As I looked around to see where the smell was coming from, I spotted the Stryofoam ice chest still sitting where I had put it a week earlier full of fish.

OMG, I thought. I went over and carefully ticked off the lid.

Inside the chest was one of the most horrible things I have ever seen.

Thousands of maggots moved up from the edges of the ice chest and then down to the center. It was relentless. It was fast-paced. And the sights and smells made me gag.

I ran to the utility room and grabbed a can of gasoline. It wasn't a minute later and I was pouring the stuff right into the chest.

Life lessons quickly followed.

1) Did you know that gasoline eats through Styrofoam?

I did not, not until that gob of goo exploded out onto the concrete pad, all over my shoes.

After puking from "the reveal," and with my brothers laughing their heads off, I torched the sickening mess.

There was a "whupping" involved later when Dad saw it after smelling it, too.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
So what's the latest on these waves we've been following?


Nothing much at this point.
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Quoting CycloneOz:


That's a lot of work.

I prefer using the "cone of uncertainty" in conjunction with intensity forecasts.

As long as I'm in the ball park, I can find "center" field.


Good plan :) I just need to learn the definitions to the main vocabulary words and am interested in the formation of storms. Why one in particular will or will not form, what causes it to go where they go, etc.

When it comes to getting smacked, I got that covered!

Defcon 1: Go find your helmet
Defcon 2: Put on your helmet
Defcon 3: Put on your swim floaties
Defcon 4: Tie self to mattress (they float)
Defcon 5: I need a camera and...(not appropriate for this blog)

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So what's the latest on these waves we've been following?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
474. 900MB
Not a bad wave out by 40W for early June, but not too organized. Good thing nothing brewing in NW Carib at this point, coast would be clear for a system to enter/develop in the Gulf.

On the gas pipeline explosion- apparently just a mile or two from a nuke plant. Ay yi yi!
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Quoting IKE:


Three dead...10 missing.


Live Video
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In the West Caribbean there is low shear warm waters and moist air if something were to work it's way there it could form almost without hindrance
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Quoting Samantha550:


Just popping in to catch up and thought I would say hello. There a quite a few people in Beaumont, who ask me what my weather blog is saying about a particular storm or situation. For anyone on the TX/LA boarder this site should be a daily visit during hurricane season.


Hi Samantha! Good to see you again. :) I've been mostly lurking sometimes posting. My family and friends ask me what's going on on "My blog " too. Lol. I agree that anyone in this area should ( or any other )should check in with this site. Going to be a long possibly bad season. Hopefully everyone will be prepared.
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Quoting IKE:


Three dead...10 missing.


Thats no good, do you have a link I can't seem to find one.
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Quoting Greyelf:


Last I knew, the roof of a car, minivan, SUV, or truck was still metal. I didn't think the U.S. had cheaped out on vehicles that much yet.
cars are made of
recycle pop cans now
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54449
From the HPC Caribbean Discussion:

AT 500 HPA A RIDGE IS TO
BUILD FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH 54-60 HRS...AND SETTLE OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BY 90-96 HRS (LATE THURSDAY). THIS WILL FAVOR A WEAK
SUBSIDENCE CAP OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS BY MID
WEEK...FORECAST TO QUICKLY ERODE LATER THIS WEEK AS A STRONG
PERTURBATION IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
(SEE BELOW).
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
467. IKE
Quoting MrstormX:


Ohh okay


Three dead...10 missing.
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Quoting MrstormX:
HPC isn't showing much for Tampa Bay today, looks like Fort Myers through Naples will be hogging the rain on the Gulf Side.


I wish! I haven't seen a drop here in Ft. Myers although the clouds look promising...
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Quoting IKE:


NW of Dallas,TX.


Ohh okay
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464. IKE
Quoting MrstormX:


In the Gulf, or on land?


NW of Dallas,TX.
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Quoting errantlythought:


Hate to break it to you, that's not metal. :P


Last I knew, the roof of a car, minivan, SUV, or truck was still metal. I didn't think the U.S. had cheaped out on vehicles that much yet.
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Quoting MrstormX:
HPC isn't showing much for Tampa Bay today, looks like Fort Myers through Naples will be hogging the rain on the Gulf Side.
No rain in Ft Myers/Cape Coral, still dry
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Quoting 850Realtor:
Does anyone know if there is a blog on WU that is about Hurricanes 101? Looking for all the basic info starting from the beginning...understanding MJO, SAL, ITCZ, reading the maps/satellites, etc. If there's not one, is there a website that has all that info in one place?



You can use Jetstream as a starter.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


or how mapping technology has greatly improved in detail in the last 41 years...

I thought he was bieng funny, now that I read it again maybe not
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Quoting Floodman:


If you're not tied down you will BE debris. Ever tried standing up in 100mph + winds?


we lived in one of those 0ld fla houses up on piers years ago. a hurricane with 110 mph winds came, i dont remember the name, and there was a gallon jug full of flea dip for my dog under the house. omg that thing thumped and bumped all nite long. it sounded like it was gonna tear out the floor boards :)
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Quoting gator23:

sounds like my love life, BADA BING


Haha...now that's funny!
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Quoting CaneWarning:


Wow, it's amazing how land areas have really changed shape since then...


or how mapping technology has greatly improved in detail in the last 41 years...
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Look for radar to light up over Texas City, as a low based black cloud is building overhead, should see echos on radar shortly
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Quoting CycloneOz:




.

As long as I'm in the ball park, I can find "center" field.

sounds like my love life, BADA BING
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Quoting IKE:


Correction from CNN...."natural gas well explodes".


In the Gulf, or on land?
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452. IKE
Quoting RitaEvac:
Was it a BP oil well??


Correction from CNN...."natural gas well explodes".
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Quoting Greyelf:


Uh, gas cans on the roof of your METAL vehicle that will likely be rain soaked? Heh...you ARE brave...and yeah, in that case they probably should evacuate. :)


Hate to break it to you, that's not metal. :P
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Was it a BP oil well??
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Quoting Snowlover123:


I don't see any "eye like feature."


It disappears near the beginning of the loop.
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Quoting 850Realtor:


Thanks. I read these posts day in and day out, but some of it is still way over my head. Thinking maybe I should go back and start from the beginning to become more knowledgeable.


That's a lot of work.

I prefer using the "cone of uncertainty" in conjunction with intensity forecasts.

As long as I'm in the ball park, I can find "center" field.
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Quoting MrstormX:


Im not sure, but I would check out Wikipedia they have a great Tropical Cyclone project there, really make some great articles.


Thanks. I read these posts day in and day out, but some of it is still way over my head. Thinking maybe I should go back and start from the beginning to become more knowledgeable.
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Quoting gator23:

Welcome! Been here since 2007 happy to answer any questions you may have.
Sup Hydrus?
Sup GatorDude.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21429
445. IKE
Oil well explodes in Hood County,Texas, that's south of the Oklahoma border...at least 6 people hurt...per CNN.
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Quoting 850Realtor:
Does anyone know if there is a blog on WU that is about Hurricanes 101? Looking for all the basic info starting from the beginning...understanding MJO, SAL, ITCZ, reading the maps/satellites, etc. If there's not one, is there a website that has all that info in one place?



Start hereLink

it should help
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Quoting 850Realtor:
Does anyone know if there is a blog on WU that is about Hurricanes 101? Looking for all the basic info starting from the beginning...understanding MJO, SAL, ITCZ, reading the maps/satellites, etc. If there's not one, is there a website that has all that info in one place?



Im not sure, but I would check out Wikipedia they have a great Tropical Cyclone project there, really make some great articles.
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Are there prospects about a Tropical System forming and coming up the East Coast? Because on Accuweather.com forums, the storm near the South Carribean, would be developed by models, and then be dragged into the Eastern Seaboard. Does anyone else see this?

-Snowy
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Quoting IKE:
This should take care of the tourists for the summer of 2010 along the Alabama coast.....

"Signs warning against swimming go up along Alabama coast......"....from here



I saw video from that area on Sunday and people were swimming even with signs like that posted.
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Quoting Torgen:


I think we have small children who are in school now who were born under this same drought warning :P


Hahah I wouldn't be surprised I recall it being dry the past 3-4 years I've been visiting that area. A weak Tropical Cyclone could actually do more help then harm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Does anyone know if there is a blog on WU that is about Hurricanes 101? Looking for all the basic info starting from the beginning...understanding MJO, SAL, ITCZ, reading the maps/satellites, etc. If there's not one, is there a website that has all that info in one place?

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Quoting AstroHurricane001:
The low pressure system center over SW Missouri briefly had an eye-like feature and a mesocyclone.



81 people total have been killed by Cyclone Phet in Oman, Pakistan and India.


I don't see any "eye like feature."
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The blob coming up from Panama might prove to be a little interesting as it drifts NW if it stays of coast conditions don't look to hostile. NW wind 7 mph in Panama now 29.89 steady. Just talk nothing to get excited about.
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HPC isn't showing much for Tampa Bay today, looks like Fort Myers through Naples will be hogging the rain on the Gulf Side.
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435. IKE
This should take care of the tourists for the summer of 2010 along the Alabama coast.....

"Signs warning against swimming go up along Alabama coast......"....from here

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Quoting MrstormX:


Wow its still bad there? I was last in your region in January, and everything was bone dry and the grass a dead mixture of yellow and browns. Are you guys in a drought?


Everything was dead because of the cold, not really because of drought. We could use rain though.
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Quoting MrstormX:


Wow its still bad there? I was last in your region in January, and everything was bone dry and the grass a dead mixture of yellow and browns. Are you guys in a drought?


I think we have small children who are in school now who were born under this same drought warning :P
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Quoting MrstormX:


Poor Miami, I swear you guys have storms popping up everyday. Ironically 90 miles away in the Bahamas they have sun almost every day.


You know what they say about Miami? If you dont like the weather, wait 5 minutes.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.