Second deadliest tornado of 2010 kills 5 in Ohio; oil spill update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:00 PM GMT on June 07, 2010

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The second deadliest tornado of 2010 hit Millbury, Ohio, about 10 miles southeast of Toledo, on Saturday night, killing five. The deaths brought this year's tornado death toll to 23, which is, fortunately, well below the approximately 70 deaths we expect to see by mid-June, based on averages from the past three tornado seasons. The deadliest tornado of 2010 was the EF-4 Yazoo City, Mississippi tornado in April, which killed ten. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 55 tornado reports on Saturday, plus 104 reports of damaging winds and 16 of large hail. The tornadoes hit Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. Ohio's killer tornado was preliminarily rated a high-end EF-3 with 165 mph winds, but has now been upgraded to an EF-4 with 175 mph winds. An EF-3 tornado also hit Indiana near Grissom Air Force Base on Saturday, and two EF-3 tornadoes were reported in Illinois, one near St. Anne, and one in Livingston County. Here in Michigan, I found myself making some very late night calls at 12:30 am on Sunday to warn relatives about the Doppler radar signatures of rotating supercells bearing down on them. Hardest hit was the town of Dundee, south of Ann Arbor. An EF-2 tornado swept through the town, damaging Michigan's most visited tourist attraction, Cabela's sporting goods store on US-23. An EF-1 tornado also damaged a building at the Fermi II Nuclear Power Plant on Lake Erie, forcing an automatic shutdown of the nuclear reactor.


Figure 1. Severe weather reports for Saturday, June 5, 2010. Image credit: NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Oil spill update
Light winds of 5 - 10 knots today will turn to southeasterly Tuesday through Wednesday, then southerly on Thursday through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that the ocean currents that have carried oil eastward along the Florida Panhandle coast will weaken this week, making it unlikely that oil will penetrate farther eastwards than Panama City, Florida. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a return to a southeastery wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.


Figure 2. The oil spill on June 5, 2010 at 11:49pm EDT, as seen by Sythetic Aperature Radar (SAR) imagery from the European Space Agency's ENVISAT satellite. Image credit: University of Miami Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters
I'll have a new post on Tuesday. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. Also on Tuesday, I'll be continuing our experiment with my live Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays during hurricane season. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology last month

Tomorrow's show, which will probably be just 1/2 hour, will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast, as last week's show was.

Jeff Masters

Massive Thunderhead! (utjazzfan)
Mike shot only the top quarter of this storm cell... Quite a sight!
Massive Thunderhead!
()
June 5th Tornado (MsWickedWitch)
Near Peoria IL
June 5th Tornado
Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage (weatherwatcher24)
More damage, but other areas were much worse.
Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage

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Quoting TampaSpin:
You all are trying so hard to see something that just is not there. It will come in time but, nothing is out there ready yet.
I agree wait till the end of june or early july but it is fun to track blobs though!
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531. DDR
Post 452
Welcome to the blog.
It wont develop but you'll get some decent rain from it.
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Quoting weathersp:


Open wave.
Kinda strong impressive wave , held together good too, an early Emily? I still think the best bet is the SW Caribbean for the first named storm tho.
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You all are trying so hard to see something that just is not there. It will come in time but, nothing is out there ready yet.
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Quoting MrsOsa:


As long as you're not filling them while they're loaded on your vehicle, which I doubt you are since they're on top, you should be fine. No different than riding them around while they're in the bed of a truck.


Other than it violates Federal and depending on the state, state law...

I would have to look it up, but I BELIEVE that you can legally carry 2 - 5 Gallon jugs. Now in an emergency situation I HIGHLY doubt you will get a ticket -- but that doesn't mean it is "safe" or "legal".
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 10282
527. DDR
Good evening
520---welcome back,looks like the islands north of here (Trinidad) will get a taste of the rainy season on thursday,locally we've have scattered showers today,tomorrow will be a wash out.
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Oz...mail.

Don't know if I did it right or not, let me know if you got it.
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Quoting germemiguel:


Oh! Oh!


Open wave.
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140


Oh! Oh!
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Quoting scott39:
Shouldnt the build up of heat and moisture, stir something up in the W Carribean this weekend?
Maybe too early but its possible.
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Shouldnt the build up of heat and moisture, stir something up in the W Carribean this weekend?
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well MiamiHurricanes09 if it is then why is Columbia not under it. It look like a SW Caribbean low or a panama or costa rican low to me LOL
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Hello Everyone, Got back from my Belize/Mexico trip one day late, We landed at Mia Int"l last Thursday in a thunderstorm, flight behind our plane had to be diverted to Orlando, got to our gate to Grand Cayman only to learn it was cancelled due to the weather iddn't mind the overnite in Miami tho needed the rest, overall a good trip. Was out of touch with the weather as I was out most of the time, see an impressive Tropical wave around 40W and some weather drifting N from the Panama area other than that the Caribbean/Atlantic appears "benign" for now , of course things can flare up quite fast.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes.
Good afternoon i see we could have some mischief next week in the caribbean but need more model consistency and a disturbance to watch but im leaning for the end of june early july period for alex if this scenario doesnt matierialize.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:
On Saturday night during the tornado outbreak I sent an e-mail to TWC complaining about their non-coverage of a significant weather event (they were showing re-runs of tornado chasers).

I never heard back from them..........
Good! Send them more and more.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Yes there is the Columbian Low always is in that area.....have fun!
Yes.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well guys that low has been moving w-wnw from this morning just look

00Z


06Z


12Z


18Z
That proves that that area of low pressure is the Columbian heat low. That low is always there.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I have to agree with that.Oh my bad, I missed the time stamp.There isn't a low pressure area associated with the convection so steering is useless (I think). But it's all good, lol.


Yes there is the Columbian Low always is in that area.....have fun!
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Quoting 850Realtor:
By the way, what's up with PensacolaDoug? Has he been in here recently, haven't seen him.


He's been busy producing new music, actually.

His band's latest song was downloaded to the server just yesterday. It really kicks serious butt! :)

I guess I'll link to it. It really is a great song and you should hear it.

This new song is from Pensacola, Florida's very own "Crossfire" and is entitled "Same ______, Different Day."
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well guys that low has been moving w-wnw from this morning just look

00Z


06Z


12Z


18Z
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


or how mapping technology has greatly improved in detail in the last 41 years...


I know, that was a joke.
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Quoting IKE:


True.

Earlier GFS had it on the east-PAC side. Maybe the next run will switch back to the Caribbean.
Yeah, the GFS will probably switch basins on each run, but if other models jump aboard is when we really have to pay attention to it. The GFS alone isn't too reliable, imo.
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18Z GFS coming out. Link
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Quoting extreme236:


Development somewhere next week seems likely. Whether its on the EPAC side or our side.
I have to agree with that.
Quoting extreme236:


Thats for development next week though. GFS shows a lot of moisture in that entire "2" zone, so any development wouldn't surprise me.
Oh my bad, I missed the time stamp.
Quoting TampaSpin:


There is always a low pressure area there.....





Steering as i said would suggest you are wrong so i would have to disagree with you but, its all good.
There isn't a low pressure area associated with the convection so steering is useless (I think). But it's all good, lol.
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Quoting IKE:


True.

Earlier GFS had it on the east-PAC side. Maybe the next run will switch back to the Caribbean.


I imagine the GFS will probably flip back and forth on this for a while.
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506. IKE
Quoting extreme236:


Development somewhere next week seems likely. Whether its on the EPAC side or our side.


True.

Earlier GFS had it on the east-PAC side. Maybe the next run will switch back to the Caribbean.
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Quoting CycloneOz:
PensacolaDoug and CycloneOz (with a bull red) that was caught off of Dewberry's dock in Warrington, FL. Mrs. Mary Dewberry (deceased 2009) took the photo.



This fish was actually prepped by me and was served to the Dewberry's that night for dinner.

This picture was in the Dewberry's home when Hurricane Ivan destroyed it. The picture was found some weeks later in a vast debris field and is now a hurricane souvenir.


May God rest her soul! The things that Ivan took and the things that it left still amaze me. After the destruction caused by it, who would have ever thought that picture would have survived. By the way, what's up with PensacolaDoug? Has he been in here recently, haven't seen him.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It's been stationary for the past 30 hours and steering currents aren't strong enough to influence where it should go. It should just drift around, I think the GFS has that area developing in the Caribbean and then the GOM. By the way, the only time that steering should really influence it's movement is when it gets to about 18N.


There is always a low pressure area there.....





Steering as i said would suggest you are wrong so i would have to disagree with you but, its all good.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys check the 18Z surface map SW Caribbean



The low over Panama I think is the Colombian heat low, I don't think it's associated with the convection though.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I remember Dr. Masters posting back sometime ago that he thought our first storm would not come until mid/late June. He cited the residual effects of El Nino. Here we are on June 7th and no storm and nothing imminent. Looks like mid/late June before Alex arrives.
Yeah it could stay that way, but should be an area to be watched none the less.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


I remember Dr. Masters posting back sometime ago that he thought our first storm would not come until mid/late June. He cited the residual effects of El Nino. Here we are on June 7th and no storm and nothing imminent. Looks like mid/late June before Alex arrives.


I agree. But there will be a day (and days after that) where collectively, we all say the same thing I said when that transformer blew up near me during Hurricane Dolly.

Remember what I said? "Whoa! Holy ______!"
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You see number 2, that backs up everyting I'm saying. Conditions are really favorable for development in the SW Caribbean, that area should be watched imo.


Thats for development next week though. GFS shows a lot of moisture in that entire "2" zone, so any development wouldn't surprise me.
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ENSO's down to -0.4C, threshold for La Nina is about to be breached. I believe that by the 22nd this will be a weak La Nina.
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Quoting IKE:


Development somewhere next week seems likely. Whether its on the EPAC side or our side.
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hey guys check the 18Z surface map SW Caribbean



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Quoting IKE:
You see number 2, that backs up everyting I'm saying. Conditions are really favorable for development in the SW Caribbean, that area should be watched imo.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


I gotta disagree with you! Where does that go....into land is where steering forces it...guess we might have the first land Storm then.
It's been stationary for the past 30 hours and steering currents aren't strong enough to influence where it should go. It should just drift around, I think the GFS has that area developing in the Caribbean and then the GOM. By the way, the only time that steering should really influence it's movement is when it gets to about 18N.
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I think the EPAC Moisture is definitely tightly embedded within the ITCZ, which is why im not expecting anything yet. But we all know how quickly that can change, so it is still something to monitor.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
493. IKE
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Today's CPC update of ENSO has Nino 3.4 down from -0.2 last week to -0.4 today.

Link
I think that when it reaches a temperature of less than 0.5C it is called Nina 3.4. Do you know if that is ture?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Disagree. The area over Central America seems more probable for development. I will continue to monitor it, and I'll have a blog up later in the evening.


I gotta disagree with you! Where does that go....into land is where steering forces it...guess we might have the first land Storm then.
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Today's CPC update of ENSO has Nino 3.4 down from -0.2 last week to -0.4 today.

Link
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Quoting TampaSpin:


27N 60W is about the only thing in the tropics worth truly watching and it has little chance of developing as its in fairly cool waters.
Disagree. The area over Central America seems more probable for development. I will continue to monitor it, and I'll have a blog up later in the evening.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


I believe it closed about 2 years ago. You won't even recognize this place anymore as everything is developed. Serious traffic around here in the morning and afternoon.


Shame. Did you ever eat there? Only thing I didn't like was the skeleton they had in the middle of the place. Sort of took your appetite away on the "all you can eat" nights.

The food was awsome. Bet the place has changed. I was there the week the first 50 million dollar lotto winner won in Longwood.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26124
Quoting CycloneOz:
Some of you folks need to go the Mythbusters web site and search for "gasoline."

Gas is actually hard to ignite. Even if you somehow manage to ignite it at the mouth of a gas can, the can doesn't explode. It just flames away at the opening. You'll have plenty of time to get away before the plastic is compromised.

Plastic is non-conductive, which means as long as you're not banging the nozzle around, there is zero possibility of static discharge when filling, whether on the roof or not.

In all my years "handling gasoline," I've never had a "serious accident."

There was one instance though I'd like to share.

Back when we were kids, I caught a whole bunch of croakers near Dewberry's dock. I filled up a Styrofoam ice chest with them.

When I got home, I put the fish at the end of a concrete pad that extended away from the utility room.

Seven days later, I was getting into a car when I smelled something awful. As I looked around to see where the smell was coming from, I spotted the Stryofoam ice chest still sitting where I had put it a week earlier full of fish.

OMG, I thought. I went over and carefully ticked off the lid.

Inside the chest was one of the most horrible things I have ever seen.

Thousands of maggots moved up from the edges of the ice chest and then down to the center. It was relentless. It was fast-paced. And the sights and smells made me gag.

I ran to the utility room and grabbed a can of gasoline. It wasn't a minute later and I was pouring the stuff right into the chest.

Life lessons quickly followed.

1) Did you know that gasoline eats through Styrofoam?

I did not, not until that gob of goo exploded out onto the concrete pad, all over my shoes.

After puking from "the reveal," and with my brothers laughing their heads off, I torched the sickening mess.

There was a "whupping" involved later when Dad saw it after smelling it, too.
ROFLMAO!!!!!! The combination of decomposing animals, vomit, gasoline, and the sight of animals being eatten by animals must of been discousting! Ughh, I get chills thinking about it, lol.
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Quoting CycloneOz:
Some of you folks need to go the Mythbusters web site and search for "gasoline."

Gas is actually hard to ignite. Even if you somehow manage to ignite it at the mouth of a gas can, the can doesn't explode. It just flames away at the opening. You'll have plenty of time to get away before the plastic is compromised.

Plastic is non-conductive, which means as long as you're not banging the nozzle around, there is zero possibility of static discharge when filling, whether on the roof or not.

In all my years "handling gasoline," I've never had a "serious accident."

There was one instance though I'd like to share.

Back when we were kids, I caught a whole bunch of croakers near Dewberry's dock. I filled up a Styrofoam ice chest with them.

When I got home, I put the fish at the end of a concrete pad that extended away from the utility room.

Seven days later, I was getting into a car when I smelled something awful. As I looked around to see where the smell was coming from, I spotted the Stryofoam ice chest still sitting where I had put it a week earlier full of fish.

OMG, I thought. I went over and carefully ticked off the lid.

Inside the chest was one of the most horrible things I have ever seen.

Thousands of maggots moved up from the edges of the ice chest and then down to the center. It was relentless. It was fast-paced. And the sights and smells made me gag.

I ran to the utility room and grabbed a can of gasoline. It wasn't a minute later and I was pouring the stuff right into the chest.

Life lessons quickly followed.

1) Did you know that gasoline eats through Styrofoam?

I did not, not until that gob of goo exploded out onto the concrete pad, all over my shoes.

After puking from "the reveal," and with my brothers laughing their heads off, I torched the sickening mess.

There was a "whupping" involved later when Dad saw it after smelling it, too.


Agreed. It is the fumes that ignite easily, not the liquid. We've used gasoline that has been airing out for a while at my dad's shop for years. Gas is a surprisingly great cleaner for grease, oil, and adhiesives.
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27N 60W is about the only thing in the tropics worth truly watching and it has little chance of developing as its in fairly cool waters.
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TO: CYCLONEOZ

I guess some of us are lucky is all. Lucky that none of us lived in your neighborhood. LOL

I still pull my head back when I turn on the electric stove. One never knows.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26124
PensacolaDoug and CycloneOz (with a bull red) that was caught off of Dewberry's dock in Warrington, FL. Mrs. Mary Dewberry (deceased 2009) took the photo.



This fish was actually prepped by me and was served to the Dewberry's that night for dinner.

This picture was in the Dewberry's home when Hurricane Ivan destroyed it. The picture was found some weeks later in a vast debris field and is now a hurricane souvenir.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.