Second deadliest tornado of 2010 kills 5 in Ohio; oil spill update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:00 PM GMT on June 07, 2010

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The second deadliest tornado of 2010 hit Millbury, Ohio, about 10 miles southeast of Toledo, on Saturday night, killing five. The deaths brought this year's tornado death toll to 23, which is, fortunately, well below the approximately 70 deaths we expect to see by mid-June, based on averages from the past three tornado seasons. The deadliest tornado of 2010 was the EF-4 Yazoo City, Mississippi tornado in April, which killed ten. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 55 tornado reports on Saturday, plus 104 reports of damaging winds and 16 of large hail. The tornadoes hit Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. Ohio's killer tornado was preliminarily rated a high-end EF-3 with 165 mph winds, but has now been upgraded to an EF-4 with 175 mph winds. An EF-3 tornado also hit Indiana near Grissom Air Force Base on Saturday, and two EF-3 tornadoes were reported in Illinois, one near St. Anne, and one in Livingston County. Here in Michigan, I found myself making some very late night calls at 12:30 am on Sunday to warn relatives about the Doppler radar signatures of rotating supercells bearing down on them. Hardest hit was the town of Dundee, south of Ann Arbor. An EF-2 tornado swept through the town, damaging Michigan's most visited tourist attraction, Cabela's sporting goods store on US-23. An EF-1 tornado also damaged a building at the Fermi II Nuclear Power Plant on Lake Erie, forcing an automatic shutdown of the nuclear reactor.


Figure 1. Severe weather reports for Saturday, June 5, 2010. Image credit: NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Oil spill update
Light winds of 5 - 10 knots today will turn to southeasterly Tuesday through Wednesday, then southerly on Thursday through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that the ocean currents that have carried oil eastward along the Florida Panhandle coast will weaken this week, making it unlikely that oil will penetrate farther eastwards than Panama City, Florida. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a return to a southeastery wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.


Figure 2. The oil spill on June 5, 2010 at 11:49pm EDT, as seen by Sythetic Aperature Radar (SAR) imagery from the European Space Agency's ENVISAT satellite. Image credit: University of Miami Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters
I'll have a new post on Tuesday. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. Also on Tuesday, I'll be continuing our experiment with my live Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays during hurricane season. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology last month

Tomorrow's show, which will probably be just 1/2 hour, will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast, as last week's show was.

Jeff Masters

Massive Thunderhead! (utjazzfan)
Mike shot only the top quarter of this storm cell... Quite a sight!
Massive Thunderhead!
()
June 5th Tornado (MsWickedWitch)
Near Peoria IL
June 5th Tornado
Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage (weatherwatcher24)
More damage, but other areas were much worse.
Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage

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Quoting extreme236:


It might. It wouldn't effect PR for another few days so a lot could still change.


True, things are always changing. Weather can be surprising sometimes
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6455
Quoting SouthALWX:

you gotta smack it around a bit and make sure it knows to make sandwiches ... oh wait that's women I really dont know what this "stove" is is you speak of ... 0.o


At least it wasn't someone from MS who said that. We need all the help we can get sometimes lol
Member Since: May 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 84
680. JLPR2
Quoting extreme236:
The wave in the Central Atlantic is forecasted to gain some latitude and perhaps be a strong tropical wave as it moves towards PR.


Well that would be unexpected, strong tropical waves dont usually come around here till July
:\
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Expect another wave to emerge later this weekend. This one will take first place as the strongest wave of the season with a vigorous mid-low level circulation along the axis near 10N. Convection is not expected to sustain along this wave as the other two over the EATL but like the wave near 40W, it will gather steam further west. Notice a pattern in these three waves, each progressively stronger than the next.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting CaribBoy:


You think it will get as far north as PR? Based on the latest models i see it remaining a little south of the NE carib islands. Time will tell.


It might. It wouldn't effect PR for another few days so a lot could still change.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
677. IKE
I see nothing in the Atlantic on the 18Z GFS run.


18Z NOGAPS

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:
The wave in the Central Atlantic is forecasted to gain some latitude and perhaps be a strong tropical wave as it moves towards PR.


You think it will get as far north as PR? Based on the latest models i see it remaining a little south of the NE carib islands. Time will tell.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6455
675. JRRP
Quoting extreme236:
The wave in the Central Atlantic is forecasted to gain some latitude and perhaps be a strong tropical wave as it moves towards PR.

that is true
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:


"WOW! Are we sure this is only June?"
Enough of the JFV stuff.

Quoting extreme236:
The wave in the Central Atlantic is forecasted to gain some latitude and perhaps be a strong tropical wave as it moves towards PR.
Yes I heard about that, should be interesting to watch none the less.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This wave is probably the furthest north I've seen so far this season.



You are right.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6455
The wave in the Central Atlantic is forecasted to gain some latitude and perhaps be a strong tropical wave as it moves towards PR.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We could have a yellow circle for the CATL wave by tomorrow... just my opinion :)
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6455
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
This wave is probably the furthest north I've seen so far this season.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting pottery:

Now, Now Keeper, have some respect for the Seniors around here.
LOL

out
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56140
665. JRRP
big wave 9n 43w
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:
I need to go and speak to the stove!
I set the timer, pressed 'start', about 2 hours ago.
It has not cooked anything at all.
Am I supposed to put something in the oven, or what?
This Bachelor stuff sux....

BBL

you gotta smack it around a bit and make sure it knows to make sandwiches ... oh wait that's women I really dont know what this "stove" is is you speak of ... 0.o
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
"If CycloneOzuses 5-gallon cans to carry extra gas on his roof, but is limited to 440 pounds of gas he can carry, how many gas cans does CycloneOz need to buy to have as much gas as possible, yet stay under the Federal Law quoted above?"

Buying 4/7ths of a container might present some problems. But the hard part is carrying that 4/7ths without having the 20pounds inside slosh all over your car.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Notice the difference of the SSTs along the equatorial Pacific.

June 7, 2005


June 7, 2010


slightly stronger la nina signal but thats as close as it gets pattern-wise
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Now, Now Keeper, have some respect for the Seniors around here.
LOL

out
LOL!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
STJ looks to be moving further north soon ... Could get active in a week or two.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


LOL!
Oh by the way, very nice synopsis you posted this afternoon.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Now, Now Keeper, have some respect for the Seniors around here.
LOL

out
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24903
Quoting atmoaggie:

Good. This link is PG-13, for language...but relevant "news" from the Onion: http://www.theonion.com/articles/massive-flow-of-bull[snip]-continues-to-gush-from-bp,17564/
LMAO, It's a very relevant title I have to say.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
I need to go and speak to the stove!
I set the timer, pressed 'start', about 2 hours ago.
It has not cooked anything at all.
Am I supposed to put something in the oven, or what?
This Bachelor stuff sux....

BBL
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24903
Notice the difference of the SSTs along the equatorial Pacific.

June 7, 2005


June 7, 2010

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm 13. LOL...

Good. This link is PG-13, for language...but relevant "news" from the Onion: http://www.theonion.com/articles/massive-flow-of-bull[snip]-continues-to-gush-from-bp,17564/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

For you, my friend, it's gets a whole lot Better. For many years.
LIVE them.

and actually "it gets worse" was a joke. It does not!
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56140
651. CaribBoy
11:15 PM GMT on June 07, 2010
Since the 12z run, GFS has greatly diminished the impact of our CATL wave over the Leeward islands. I now think we won't get VERY ACTIVE WEATHER at all (maybe a quick shower and I'm generous).. unlike the Windwards where more activity will likely occur.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6455
649. CaneWarning
11:12 PM GMT on June 07, 2010
I will say the blog has been much nicer without the troll and his many user names.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
648. MiamiHurricanes09
11:11 PM GMT on June 07, 2010
Quoting pottery:

For you, my friend, it's gets a whole lot Better. For many years.
LIVE them.

and actually "it gets worse" was a joke. It does not!
LOL!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
647. MiamiHurricanes09
11:11 PM GMT on June 07, 2010
Quoting pottery:

For you, my friend, it's gets a whole lot Better. For many years.
LIVE them.
I will.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
646. Grothar
11:10 PM GMT on June 07, 2010
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


It's only a matter of time.


You sound just like Kevin Moore.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
645. pottery
11:09 PM GMT on June 07, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm 13. LOL...

For you, my friend, it's gets a whole lot Better. For many years.
LIVE them.

and actually "it gets worse" was a joke. It does not!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24903
644. TampaSpin
11:09 PM GMT on June 07, 2010
I'm out! Draft time....everyone have a good day!
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
643. MiamiHurricanes09
11:08 PM GMT on June 07, 2010
Quoting pottery:

Well, cheer up. 50?
I am 61.
It gets worse....
heheheheh
I'm 13. LOL...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
642. MiamiHurricanes09
11:07 PM GMT on June 07, 2010
Quoting StormW:


Word!
Lol, I don't think a man named Thomas speaks like that. LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
641. CaribBoy
11:07 PM GMT on June 07, 2010
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER IS A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ALONG
42W THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PREDICTING VERY
ACTIVE WEATHER FOR PR/USVI ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

Hope we get at least a little drop here.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6455
640. pottery
11:07 PM GMT on June 07, 2010
Quoting clwstmchasr:


That's my 12 year old. For me it that I'm about to turn the big 50 that is getting me.

Well, cheer up. 50?
I am 61.
It gets worse....
heheheheh
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24903
639. xcool
11:06 PM GMT on June 07, 2010
wave at 45w good.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
638. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:06 PM GMT on June 07, 2010
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


It's only a matter of time.
i know
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56140
637. wunderkidcayman
11:06 PM GMT on June 07, 2010
North of Panama
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
635. GeoffreyWPB
11:05 PM GMT on June 07, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
admin handed out one ban to a multi screenname user


It's only a matter of time.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11557
634. Cavin Rawlins
11:05 PM GMT on June 07, 2010
12Z GFS continues to hint a weak disturbance in the SW Caribbean this weekend....possible

Tropical wave near 40W bringing showers to the islands...possible




Strong tropical wave over Africa tries to develop over the Eastern Atlantic this weekend but remains a highly amplified wave as it treks across the Atlantic....possible



Broad area of low pressure over the S Gulf late next week....very difficult to validate but not impossible


Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
633. xcool
11:05 PM GMT on June 07, 2010
CaneWarning .yeah may daysaway
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
632. MrstormX
11:05 PM GMT on June 07, 2010
Quoting xcool:






new 18z


Thanks xcool, I notice there is definitely some disturbed weather predicted there.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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