Second deadliest tornado of 2010 kills 5 in Ohio; oil spill update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:00 PM GMT on June 07, 2010

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The second deadliest tornado of 2010 hit Millbury, Ohio, about 10 miles southeast of Toledo, on Saturday night, killing five. The deaths brought this year's tornado death toll to 23, which is, fortunately, well below the approximately 70 deaths we expect to see by mid-June, based on averages from the past three tornado seasons. The deadliest tornado of 2010 was the EF-4 Yazoo City, Mississippi tornado in April, which killed ten. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 55 tornado reports on Saturday, plus 104 reports of damaging winds and 16 of large hail. The tornadoes hit Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. Ohio's killer tornado was preliminarily rated a high-end EF-3 with 165 mph winds, but has now been upgraded to an EF-4 with 175 mph winds. An EF-3 tornado also hit Indiana near Grissom Air Force Base on Saturday, and two EF-3 tornadoes were reported in Illinois, one near St. Anne, and one in Livingston County. Here in Michigan, I found myself making some very late night calls at 12:30 am on Sunday to warn relatives about the Doppler radar signatures of rotating supercells bearing down on them. Hardest hit was the town of Dundee, south of Ann Arbor. An EF-2 tornado swept through the town, damaging Michigan's most visited tourist attraction, Cabela's sporting goods store on US-23. An EF-1 tornado also damaged a building at the Fermi II Nuclear Power Plant on Lake Erie, forcing an automatic shutdown of the nuclear reactor.


Figure 1. Severe weather reports for Saturday, June 5, 2010. Image credit: NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Oil spill update
Light winds of 5 - 10 knots today will turn to southeasterly Tuesday through Wednesday, then southerly on Thursday through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that the ocean currents that have carried oil eastward along the Florida Panhandle coast will weaken this week, making it unlikely that oil will penetrate farther eastwards than Panama City, Florida. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a return to a southeastery wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.


Figure 2. The oil spill on June 5, 2010 at 11:49pm EDT, as seen by Sythetic Aperature Radar (SAR) imagery from the European Space Agency's ENVISAT satellite. Image credit: University of Miami Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters
I'll have a new post on Tuesday. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. Also on Tuesday, I'll be continuing our experiment with my live Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays during hurricane season. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology last month

Tomorrow's show, which will probably be just 1/2 hour, will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast, as last week's show was.

Jeff Masters

Massive Thunderhead! (utjazzfan)
Mike shot only the top quarter of this storm cell... Quite a sight!
Massive Thunderhead!
()
June 5th Tornado (MsWickedWitch)
Near Peoria IL
June 5th Tornado
Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage (weatherwatcher24)
More damage, but other areas were much worse.
Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage

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Quoting Weather456:


That diagram shows the inter-tropical front over Africa....it is unrelated to where AEWs develop and propagate. It is the AEJ axis which determines this not the ITF. Also notice the ITF is well north of any wave we've seen thus far.


Soo.. where is the AEJ axis in relation to climatology?
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Quoting Weather456:


That diagram shows the inter-tropical front over Africa....it is unrelated to where AEWs develop and propagate. It is the AEJ axis which determines this not the ITF. Also notice the ITF is well north of any wave we've seen thus far.


Yes, but my understanding (correct me if I am wrong) is that the AEJ tends to be limited in the latitude in which it can gain over the continent of africa in early season by the ITF. Obviously the ITF is not the mean propogation for waves, as seen in the graph above, waves don't reach 20°N :P..
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Quoting spathy:
Thanks 456
Not even the reduced solar heating?
Or increased clouds is negligible?


there is some level of reduce solar heating by clouds but you have to understand this is small compared to the incoming heat as summer progresses. The result is net heating. Also clouds don't develop offshore Africa everyday. Most of the time, maximum cloudiness occurs during the passage of waves which is every 3-5 days.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hey 456, how do you like this very very nice wave emerging off of Africa?



I thought that was emerging yesterday. Time warp?
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Quoting Weather456:


That diagram shows the inter-tropical front over Africa....it is unrelated to where AEWs develop and propagate. It is the AEJ axis which determines this not the ITF. Also notice the ITF is well north of any wave we've seen thus far.
I was wondering if you could set up a blog post defining all these terms you use such as AEW and ITF?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That's pretty interesting.


Another View..

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Quoting weathersp:
We're actually a bit south of of Average for latitude of waves across africa.



That diagram shows the inter-tropical front over Africa....it is unrelated to where AEWs develop and propagate. It is the AEJ axis which determines this not the ITF. Also notice the ITF is well north of any wave we've seen thus far.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting MrsOsa:


Lol have a little pride! While the state sure gets a lot of things backwards, I hail from the coast which I tend to think is a little more progressive and "with it" than the rest of the state.


Yeah, I have to admit a little "smuggery" about being from the modern, smarter Coast than inland, too! I left for good in 1990, before the casinos and all their problems came to pass.
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Quoting weathersp:
We're actually a bit south of of Average for latitude of waves across africa.

That's pretty interesting.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Weather456:


This question should be answered with another question. Did it happen in 2008? The answer would be no. Most tropical waves have less than 15 knots of surface wind, with most of their circulation in the mid-low levels aloft. Convection may absorbed some of the heat from the ocean but this is more than offset by the seasonal march of the sun.
furthest point north in 14 days from now then the long trek south begins
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting Weather456:


This question should be answered with another question. Did it happen in 2008? The answer would be no. Most tropical waves have less than 15 knots of surface wind, with most of their circulation in the mid-low levels aloft. Convection may absorbed some of the heat from the ocean but this is more than offset by the seasonal march of the sun.
Did you see the WINDSAT from earlier that showed the wave around 40%u02DAN with winds of up to 30 knots. No signs of a closed surface circulation though.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
We're actually a bit south of of Average for latitude of waves across africa.

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Quoting spathy:
Question

Could the active wave pattern off Africa act to cool the water and delay waves from sustained convergence till the norm development season?


This question should be answered with another question. Did it happen in 2008? The answer would be no. Most tropical waves have less than 15 knots of surface wind, with most of their circulation in the mid-low levels aloft. Convection may absorbed some of the heat from the ocean but this is more than offset by the seasonal march of the sun.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting JLPR2:


Well that would be unexpected, strong tropical waves dont usually come around here till July
:\


Thats true a stong T wave is very unlikely here in PR in June... But this seems to be a special year.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
no i mean wave 18 thats on africa now getting ready to come off yesterdays wave was 17 and the one near 40 is 16 iam counting waves since may ist today marks the 18 wave gettin ready to come off with 19 in front of it over central africa
Got it, thanks!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194


Geez, all key places for things to develop and get started are under lower than normal shear.. La Nina definitely coming.

I remember someone saying earlier that Nino 3.4 is at -0.4 now.
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Quoting Weather456:


I don't think thats a wave. That's convection ahead of a wave

Upper air obs revealed the axis near Niamey, Niger. This is consistent with other observations.



Hmmm, I see. I would like to know what that second figure shows, I have no clue.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Torgen:


I was born in Mississippi. Mississippi is a great place to be from.

The further away from, the better! :D


Lol have a little pride! While the state sure gets a lot of things backwards, I hail from the coast which I tend to think is a little more progressive and "with it" than the rest of the state.
Member Since: May 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 84
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wave 18? Where is that? Do you mean 18˚N?
no i mean wave 18 thats on africa now getting ready to come off yesterdays wave was 17 and the one near 40 is 16 iam counting waves since may ist today marks the 18 wave gettin ready to come off with 19 in front of it over central africa
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


We're sure to get some gigantic Cape Verde hurricanes this season, kind of like Bill, Ike and Dean which we've had for the past three years.
Definitely. The good thing about those large Cape Verde systems is that they take a long time to come together, but once they get going, all hell breaks loose.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This wave is probably the furthest north I've seen so far this season.



I don't think thats a wave. That's convection ahead of a wave

Upper air obs revealed the axis near Niamey, Niger. This is consistent with other observations.



Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
By the way, that wave over by eastern Africa looks vigorous.


I think is the one to which Weather456 was referring. Each one is bigger. Would that be wave 19?
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting Jeff9641:


Very far north for early June. Begs the question if we will see a Cape Verde storm over the next few weeks develop. I am personally very interested in the NW Caribbean next week.
Very north. Yeah me too, the Caribbean should be watched, that's pretty much the only place Alex could develop.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting CaneWarning:


That one ban apparently took care of several people it seems. :)


Wait a minute, I apologize if I'm bringing back anything about you-know-who, I had to read a few pages back to catch up... but.. does this mean that he was finally IP banned?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This wave is probably the furthest north I've seen so far this season.



We're sure to get some gigantic Cape Verde hurricanes this season, kind of like Bill, Ike and Dean which we've had for the past three years.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2836
Quoting Grothar:


I use Paintbrush.
Very nice.
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


No Keeper is keeping track of all the waves that roll off of Africa, and this is the 18th one haha
Oh! LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Thank you much! I would recommend them to just about anyone. They're wonderful dogs even for apartment dwellers.
Member Since: May 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 84
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wave 18? Where is that? Do you mean 18˚N?


No Keeper is keeping track of all the waves that roll off of Africa, and this is the 18th one haha
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ok, ok Grothar you beat me on the pics now, that has to be one of the nicest satellite color schemes I've seen in a long time.


I use Paintbrush.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting Grothar:
They are looking stronger.


By the way, that wave over by eastern Africa looks vigorous.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MrsOsa:


At least it wasn't someone from MS who said that. We need all the help we can get sometimes lol


I was born in Mississippi. Mississippi is a great place to be from.

The further away from, the better! :D
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Quoting Grothar:
They are looking stronger.


Ok, ok Grothar you beat me on the pics now, that has to be one of the nicest satellite color schemes I've seen in a long time.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MrsOsa:


My Great Dane girl as a puppy. She is now 100lbs (skinny) and 36" tall at her shoulders. They're only that small for a couple weeks!


I thought it was a Great Dane, but wasn't sure. She is beautiful!
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I'm off, see you later guys
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
667. MiamiHurricanes09 11:24 PM GMT on June 07, 2010
This wave is probably the furthest north I've seen so far this season.

actually wave 18 is at the perfect height for possible further future dev
Wave 18? Where is that? Do you mean 18˚N?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
690. IKE

Tropics Quiet in the Atlantic Basin
Jun 7, 2010 5:06 PM

As of Monday evening, EDT, a series of tropical waves were found over the open North Atlantic Ocean. None of these waves are forecast to show any significant development for at least the next 48 hours due to moderate wind shear. The rest of the Atlantic remains very quiet.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologists Justin Povick and Andy Mussoline
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Quoting 850Realtor:


MrsOsa, your avatar...that is the cutest dog...what breed?


My Great Dane girl as a puppy. She is now 100lbs (skinny) and 36" tall at her shoulders. They're only that small for a couple weeks!
Member Since: May 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 84
They are looking stronger.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27210
Quoting IKE:
I see nothing in the Atlantic on the 18Z GFS run.


18Z NOGAPS

Yeah, both the NOGAPS and GFS show development in the EPAC.

Quoting Weather456:
Expect another wave to emerge later this weekend. This one will take first place as the strongest wave of the season with a vigorous mid-low level circulation along the axis near 10N. Convection is not expected to sustain along this wave as the other two over the EATL but like the wave near 40W, it will gather steam further west. Notice a pattern in these three waves, each progressively stronger than the next.
It's not good to see them getting stronger, they should be beasts by late June if they keep getting stronger.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Weather456:
Expect another wave to emerge later this weekend. This one will take first place as the strongest wave of the season with a vigorous mid-low level circulation along the axis near 10N. Convection is not expected to sustain along this wave as the other two over the EATL but like the wave near 40W, it will gather steam further west. Notice a pattern in these three waves, each progressively stronger than the next.


Imagine if this trend continues till... the heart of the season.
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667. MiamiHurricanes09 11:24 PM GMT on June 07, 2010
This wave is probably the furthest north I've seen so far this season.

actually wave 18 is at the perfect height for possible further future dev
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
If we don't see Alex in the next two weeks...I think we will have to wait till July.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11557
Quoting MrsOsa:


At least it wasn't someone from MS who said that. We need all the help we can get sometimes lol


MrsOsa, your avatar...that is the cutest dog...what breed?
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Quoting extreme236:


It might. It wouldn't effect PR for another few days so a lot could still change.


True, things are always changing. Weather can be surprising sometimes
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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