Second deadliest tornado of 2010 kills 5 in Ohio; oil spill update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:00 PM GMT on June 07, 2010

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The second deadliest tornado of 2010 hit Millbury, Ohio, about 10 miles southeast of Toledo, on Saturday night, killing five. The deaths brought this year's tornado death toll to 23, which is, fortunately, well below the approximately 70 deaths we expect to see by mid-June, based on averages from the past three tornado seasons. The deadliest tornado of 2010 was the EF-4 Yazoo City, Mississippi tornado in April, which killed ten. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center recorded 55 tornado reports on Saturday, plus 104 reports of damaging winds and 16 of large hail. The tornadoes hit Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. Ohio's killer tornado was preliminarily rated a high-end EF-3 with 165 mph winds, but has now been upgraded to an EF-4 with 175 mph winds. An EF-3 tornado also hit Indiana near Grissom Air Force Base on Saturday, and two EF-3 tornadoes were reported in Illinois, one near St. Anne, and one in Livingston County. Here in Michigan, I found myself making some very late night calls at 12:30 am on Sunday to warn relatives about the Doppler radar signatures of rotating supercells bearing down on them. Hardest hit was the town of Dundee, south of Ann Arbor. An EF-2 tornado swept through the town, damaging Michigan's most visited tourist attraction, Cabela's sporting goods store on US-23. An EF-1 tornado also damaged a building at the Fermi II Nuclear Power Plant on Lake Erie, forcing an automatic shutdown of the nuclear reactor.


Figure 1. Severe weather reports for Saturday, June 5, 2010. Image credit: NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.

Oil spill update
Light winds of 5 - 10 knots today will turn to southeasterly Tuesday through Wednesday, then southerly on Thursday through Friday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. These winds will keep oil near the beaches of Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that the ocean currents that have carried oil eastward along the Florida Panhandle coast will weaken this week, making it unlikely that oil will penetrate farther eastwards than Panama City, Florida. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now show a return to a southeastery wind regime, which would prevent any further progress of the oil eastwards along the Florida Panhandle, and would tend to bring significant amounts of oil back to the shores of eastern Louisiana next week. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.


Figure 2. The oil spill on June 5, 2010 at 11:49pm EDT, as seen by Sythetic Aperature Radar (SAR) imagery from the European Space Agency's ENVISAT satellite. Image credit: University of Miami Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters
I'll have a new post on Tuesday. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days. Also on Tuesday, I'll be continuing our experiment with my live Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays during hurricane season. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology last month

Tomorrow's show, which will probably be just 1/2 hour, will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast, as last week's show was.

Jeff Masters

Massive Thunderhead! (utjazzfan)
Mike shot only the top quarter of this storm cell... Quite a sight!
Massive Thunderhead!
()
June 5th Tornado (MsWickedWitch)
Near Peoria IL
June 5th Tornado
Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage (weatherwatcher24)
More damage, but other areas were much worse.
Dundee, Michigan Tornado Damage

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Quoting weatherbro:
The world's highest dew point was recorded at a stifling 95 degrees in Saudi Arabia. Though humidity is not commonly associated with the desert, in particular Saudi Arabia, it was indeed very humid in that locale because it was on the coast of the Persian Gulf and there was an onshore flow. Thus creating torrid dew points and a horrible heat index when combined with the actual temperature of 108F. That day the heat index soared to a World Record Shattering 174F.

Apparently, this station and other around it near the Persian Gulf have recorded similar dewpoints for the Summer time since their inception.

I sure would not like to live there! Talk about stifling and juicy!


Woah... That is a little too hot... Talk about being able to fry and egg on the sidewalk. I could cook my ham, eggs, steak, make coffee...Almost make hard boiled eggs...
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 11536
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Rush Limbaugh got married again! He paid Elton John $1 million dollars to sing. I can't figure out who is the hypocrite?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11745
Weather forecasting is all in the math, lol.

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So reading back I see first I was cursed for saying there is a law about how much fuel you can carry and then vindacted when someone was nice enough to look up the FEDERAL law on it.


BTW - BP is violating FSS 376.16 - Discharging of Gas, Diesel, or other Pollutant. Fines are fairly high and each day counts as another separate offense.
Member Since: March 10, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 11536
Quoting atmoaggie:

Good. This link is PG-13, for language...but relevant "news" from the Onion: http://www.theonion.com/articles/massive-flow-of-bull[snip]-continues-to-gush-from-bp,17564/


Oh that is sweet. Thanks. I reiterate the PG caution.
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This is an image of Eastern Africa. Abundant moisture moving in.


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The world's highest dew point was recorded at a stifling 95 degrees in Saudi Arabia. Though humidity is not commonly associated with the desert, in particular Saudi Arabia, it was indeed very humid in that locale because it was on the coast of the Persian Gulf and there was an onshore flow. Thus creating torrid dew points and a horrible heat index when combined with the actual temperature of 108F. That day the heat index soared to a World Record Shattering 174F.

Apparently, this station and other around it near the Persian Gulf have recorded similar dewpoints for the Summer time since their inception.

I sure would not like to live there! Talk about stifling and juicy!
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AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam only counting african waves just to see how many and how frequent they are during the season and out of the total how many actually dev they say for every 100 waves 8 of them will dev into a cane


Here is a good link for you KEEPER. It won't be active until June 10th, but good link to have.

Link
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770. SLU
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam only counting african waves just to see how many and how frequent they are during the season and out of the total how many actually dev they say for every 100 waves 8 of them will dev into a cane


Yeh true ... only about 7 - 10% of waves actually develop. That precentage would normally be higher in big Cape Verde seasons. Although last year the precentage was around 15% and that's primarly because only about 50 waves emerged last year which is well below the 70 - 100 the experts say. Only one (Grace) out of the 9 tropical cyclones last year did not form off a tropical wave so the ratio is higher for that reason.
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769. beell
Dang, I don't know how to count. I'm only up to two-that looked like TW's.
(only slightly kidding)
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Ya I agree that definitely could be a tornadic cell, oddly no warning active yet.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam only counting african waves just to see how many and how frequent they are during the season and out of the total how many actually dev they say for every 100 waves 8 of them will dev into a cane


Have you seen this data. Don't know if it has changed due to the active period we are in, and the definition of depression must have been different back then.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Naturally. Step one is for it to not be raining, of course.


It can start and end at step 1. Suppose we have a dry year with a negative NAO (centralized high) and weak waves, then all that suspended dust remains locked over the Saharan. Of course there will be periods when the dust would leave and the events will be intense but the frequency in such a year would be low.
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From Wiki: Thought this was interesting. See you are both right

A tropical wave normally follows an area of sinking, intensely dry air, blowing northeast. After passing the trough line, the wind veers southeast, the humidity abruptly rises, and the atmosphere destabilizes. This yields widespread showers and thunderstorms, sometimes severe. As the wave moves westward, the showers gradually diminish.

An exception to this rain is in the Atlantic. Sometimes, a surge of dry air called the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) follows a tropical wave, leaving cloudless skies, as convection is capped by the dry layer inversion. Also, any dust in the SAL reflects sunlight, cooling the air below it.

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Quoting Bordonaro:

They are mesocyclone. No Tornado Vortex signatures..


Then for right now it is a powerful thunderstorms. Memory serves they commonly have gusts in excess of 70mph.

Luckily there are not to many of these were I live.
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Quoting ElConando:


Then what would be the average for TD's or TS's?
not sure this wave thing is new still
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 189 Comments: 59031
Quoting Weather456:


African rainfall is one factor controlling SAL. Remember we have the stage of SAL of suspended dust particles (African rainfall) and now we need the mechanism for this dust to travel west which would be responsibility of Waves and the eastern flank of the Azores high. Any combination of these factors can reduce or enhance SAL not over Africa where it is of little concern for cyclogenesis but over the Atlantic.

Naturally. Step one is for it to not be raining, of course.
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Quoting MrstormX:
Does anybody else see possible tornadic rotation near Torrington or am I going mad. Also, what are we talking about in terms of shear over the future Panama AOI.


Why, yes, says the SRV.

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam only counting african waves just to see how many and how frequent they are during the season and out of the total how many actually dev they say for every 100 waves 8 of them will dev into a cane


Then what would be the average for TD's or TS's?
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Quoting ElConando:


possibly put on storm tracks it may tell you if it is a Tornado or a mesoscale cyclone.

They are mesocyclone. No Tornado Vortex signatures..
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Quoting MrstormX:
Does anybody else see possible tornadic rotation near Torrington or am I going mad. Also, what are we talking about in terms of shear over the future Panama AOI.



possibly put on storm tracks it may tell you if it is a Tornado or a mesoscale cyclone.
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Quoting MrstormX:
Does anybody else see possible tornadic rotation near Torrington or am I going mad. Also, what are we talking about in terms of shear over the future Panama AOI.


No Tornado Warning on that cell. However, both cells near Torrington look like they may be tornadic!!
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Quoting atmoaggie:

(not really considering it as relevant to your blog...just discussing the implications of what it shows)
Looks like it approached climo, then fell below in latitude. Might be an indication of not-quite-the-reduced SAL we feared. Might be a normal to slightly above normal SAL season...if the lower latitude than normal part persists.

Could have implications for next season even, if the rainfall stays at a lower lat than normal, if the connection over multiple years holds true.


African rainfall is one factor controlling SAL. Remember we have the stage of SAL of suspended dust particles (African rainfall) and now we need the mechanism for this dust to travel west which would be responsibility of Waves and the eastern flank of the Azores high. Any combination of these factors can reduce or enhance SAL not over Africa where it is of little concern for cyclogenesis but over the Atlantic.
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Quoting SLU:


lol .. Trust me ... counting tropical waves can be a very tedious task because some waves lose their identity over the Atlantic Ocean only to reappear sometime later in the Caribbean. Others get relocated forwards or backwards based on satellite trends. Others get designated as waves in the middle of nowhere after very little evidence of the emergence off Africa. And others get taken off the analysis completely. So it can be very tough.
iam only counting african waves just to see how many and how frequent they are during the season and out of the total how many actually dev they say for every 100 waves 8 of them will dev into a cane
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 189 Comments: 59031
Quoting Weather456:


Remember you said "average latitude of waves"

Other than that....
the AEJ lies south of the Saharan High and the Saharan High is above the ITF, then effectively that statement is true.


Gotcha, thanks.
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
Quoting IKE:
I see nothing in the Atlantic on the 18Z GFS run.


18Z NOGAPS

Look at the model you posted, look just north of Venezuela.
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Does anybody else see possible tornadic rotation near Torrington or am I going mad. Also, what are we talking about in terms of shear over the future Panama AOI.

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Quoting weathersp:


Yes, but my understanding (correct me if I am wrong) is that the AEJ tends to be limited in the latitude in which it can gain over the continent of africa in early season by the ITF. Obviously the ITF is not the mean propogation for waves, as seen in the graph above, waves don't reach 20N :P..


Remember you said "average latitude of waves"

Other than that....
the AEJ lies south of the Saharan High and the Saharan High is above the ITF, so effectively that statement is true.
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It's all about the game and how you play it, I just read a book by Paul McKenna-I can make you thin-I hear voices in my head, they come to me, they understand, they talk to me. This tropical season will be Sussenered this yr. The other day's coming in after the wave.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Soo.. where is the AEJ axis in relation to climatology?


Climo of the AEJ in May (5N) and June (10N)

The AEJ is currently at 9N which is line with climo...





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456 can you reply to my post on 731. I want to get this right so not to confuse me or anyone else. Thanks in advance.

Aggie, yes the longer the ITF stays down, the longer we have the dust, which in considering all the other factors this season, we need all get all the help we can get on our side that we can.
Member Since: January 14, 2007 Posts: 17 Comments: 4140
746. SLU
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
either i missed one or added wrong first wave was may 5 with 5 that week then another group of five mid month with final group then 1 on 2nd jun one yesterday ya your right iam one too many wave 17 is on africa with wave 18 over cen africa


lol .. Trust me ... counting tropical waves can be a very tedious task because some waves lose their identity over the Atlantic Ocean only to reappear sometime later in the Caribbean. Others get relocated forwards or backwards based on satellite trends. Others get designated as waves in the middle of nowhere after very little evidence of their emergence off Africa. And others get taken off the analysis completely. So it can be very tough.
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Quoting spathy:
Becca.
Yes I think many of us are trying to make the most of the Gulf while we can.

Jamie and I went to Sanibel lighthouse to fish the other evening.
We were there till 3AM.
The Phosphorescence was amazing!
Up to our chests in water.
The flow across our legs was glowing like galaxy's ten fold washing over us.
To see the glow and the tiny creatures that created the show flowing around us was the most spectacular connection to Ma Earth.
It makes you realize that its not just the larger animals that will suffer.

That must have been amazing to experience! The whole issue is very dismaying.
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either i missed one or added wrong first wave was may 5 with 5 that week then another group of five mid month with final group then 1 on 2nd jun one yesterday ya your right iam one too many wave 17 is on africa with wave 18 over cen africa
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 189 Comments: 59031
Quoting Weather456:


That is true but my post was related to AEWs not SAL.

(not really considering it as relevant to your blog...just discussing the implications of what it shows)
Looks like it approached climo, then fell below in latitude. Might be an indication of not-quite-the-reduced SAL we feared. Might be a normal to slightly above normal SAL season...if the lower latitude than normal part persists.

Could have implications for next season even, if the rainfall stays at a lower lat than normal, if the connection over multiple years holds true.
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Quoting SLU:


Actually the 40W wave is number 15. It was the 1st tropical wave to emerge in June (June 2nd to be exact) after we had a record 14 in May. So therefore the wave which came off yesterday with that nice looking circulation is #16.
No it's 18. Don't mess up our numbers, lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
740. SLU
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
no i mean wave 18 thats on africa now getting ready to come off yesterdays wave was 17 and the one near 40 is 16 iam counting waves since may ist today marks the 18 wave gettin ready to come off with 19 in front of it over central africa


Actually the 40W wave is number 15. It was the 1st tropical wave to emerge in June (June 2nd to be exact) after we had a record 14 in May. So therefore the wave which came off yesterday with that nice looking circulation is #16.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

But isn't it a way to gauge the location of the rains that tamp down the SAL? (outside of previous years' moisture, anyway)


That is true but my post was related to AEWs not SAL.
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Quoting Weather456:


all that will be included in the second half next weekend.

The ITF or inter-tropical front is a discontinuity between the dry hot Saharan winds called Hamattans and the cool, moist onshore flow of the monsoon south-westerlies. The ITF is the same as the monsoon trough and often well north of the AEJ where the waves are found. The term front would apply to the pressure, temperature and moisture gradients over Africa.
Thanks man!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I was wondering if you could set up a blog post defining all these terms you use such as AEW and ITF?


all that will be included in the second half next weekend.

The ITF or inter-tropical front is a discontinuity between the dry hot Saharan winds called Hamattans and the cool, moist onshore flow of the monsoon south-westerlies. The ITF is the same as the monsoon trough and often well north of the AEJ where the waves are found. The term front would apply to the pressure, temperature and moisture gradients over Africa.
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Quoting Weather456:


That diagram shows the inter-tropical front over Africa....it is unrelated to where AEWs develop and propagate. It is the AEJ axis which determines this not the ITF. Also notice the ITF is well north of any wave we've seen thus far.

But isn't it a way to gauge the location of the rains that tamp down the SAL? (outside of previous years' moisture, anyway)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I was wondering if you could set up a blog post defining all these terms you use such as AEW and ITF?


Yeah that would help a lot.

Actually yesterday when I first heard you use "AEJ" I thought it through before looking it up and I individually came up with random tropically related terms that might fit together and I came up with African Easterly Jet. Turns out such a thing does exist XD
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Sssshhhhh don't speaketh his name.
its ok aussie its on ice for now anyway
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Quoting Tazmanian:
JFV HERE JFV THERE JFV EVERE WHERE LOL

Sssshhhhh don't speaketh his name.
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Quoting Weather456:


That diagram shows the inter-tropical front over Africa....it is unrelated to where AEWs develop and propagate. It is the AEJ axis which determines this not the ITF. Also notice the ITF is well north of any wave we've seen thus far.


Soo.. where is the AEJ axis in relation to climatology?
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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