Long range oil spill forecast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:02 PM GMT on June 04, 2010

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Onshore winds out of the south, southwest, or west are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over through Tuesday, resulting in a continued threat of landfalling oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that these winds will generate a 0.5 mph current flowing from west to east along the Florida Panhandle coast Sunday through Tuesday. If this current develops as predicted, it will be capable of bringing light amounts of oil as far east as Panama City, Florida, by Wednesday. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now predict a return to a southeasterly wind regime, which would bring the oil back over Louisiana by mid-June. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.

Long range oil spill outlook
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) issued a press release yesterday showing 4-month model runs (Figure 1) of where the Deepwater Horizon oil spill might go. The model runs show that given typical ocean currents in the Gulf of Mexico, we can expect the oil to eventually affect most of the Florida Panhandle, Keys, and Florida East Coast, as well as coastal areas of South Carolina and North Carolina. Very little oil makes it to the West Florida "Forbidden Zone", where offshore-moving surface currents dominate. The oil may eventually affect three foreign countries: Mexico along the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba near Havana, and the Bahamas in the Bimini Islands and along the western side of Grand Bahama Island. Once oil does get into the Loop Current, it will probably reach the coasts of France, Spain, and Portugal in about a year. The oil will be too dilute by then to be noticeable, though.

The present ocean current configuration in the Gulf features a newly formed Loop Current Eddy (dubbed "Franklin"), which will tend to capture the majority of oil that flows southwards from the Deepwater Horizon spill site. A plot of drifting buoys (drifters) launched into the Gulf May 19 - 24 (Figure 2) reveals how this clockwise-rotating eddy has been capturing southward-moving surface water. Eddy Franklin will move slowly west-southwest at 2 - 3 mph in the coming weeks. By August or September, the eddy will have moved far enough west that the Loop Current will be able to push northwards towards the spill location again, increasing the chances of oil getting into the Loop Current and being advected through the Florida Straits and up the U.S. Southeast Coast. Between now and mid-August, I doubt that a significant amount of oil will get into the Loop Current, unless a hurricane or tropical storm goes through the Gulf of Mexico. I put the odds of this happening by mid-August at 50%. The odds of a named storm in the Gulf of Mexico will increase sharply after mid-August, when the peak portion of hurricane season arrives. Past history shows a 95% chance of getting two or more named storms in the Gulf of Mexico during hurricane seasons with above-normal activity.


Figure 1. Animation from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) showing one scenario of how oil released at the location of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on April 20 in the Gulf of Mexico may move in the upper 65 feet of the ocean.


Figure 2. During the R/V Bellows 19-24 May 2010 Cruise into the Loop Current, drifters were dropped on the eastern edge of the Loop Current. These drifters have all been caught in Loop Current Eddy "Franklin", and are orbiting the central Gulf of Mexico in clockwise loops. Additional drifters deployed by the Coast Guard over the past few weeks (orange colors) are also shown. The colored balloons show the starting location of the drifters. Image credit: University of South Florida.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Friday, June 4, 2010.

Tropical Cyclone Phet unleashes heavy rains on Oman
Tropical Cyclone Phet hit the northern tip of Oman yesterday as a Category 2 storm, bringing torrential rains and killing at least two people. Masirah, Oman recorded sustained winds of 74 mph yesterday, and Sur, Oman on the northeast coast has received 3.25 inches of rain so far. Phet was the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was stronger. Phet has emerged from the coast of Oman this morning, but is likely to weaken over the next day due to increased wind shear. Phet should hit Pakistan as a tropical storm on Saturday, bringing heavy rain and serious flooding.

Next update
I'll probably have one update over the weekend. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Patrap:
An alert blogger noted that BP's Net feed has been HACKED/HIJACKED.


Check it out..
I assume it is either an Iraqi man or a very angry man.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Patrap:



audubon.org


Thanks Pat.
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854. IKE
BP chief Tony Hayward sold shares weeks before oil spill

From the article....

"Tony Hayward cashed in about a third of his holding in the company one month before a well on the Deepwater Horizon rig burst, causing an environmental disaster.

Mr Hayward, whose pay package is £4 million a year, then paid off the mortgage on his family’s mansion in Kent, which is estimated to be valued at more than £1.2 million."
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NOGAPS 18z 144 Hours
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
?

What are they pointing out there?
I don't anything interesting near where the blues are.
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Quoting CaneWarning:


That's awful. Do you know of any charities in the area that are working with wildlife? I'd like to donate a few bucks to them.



audubon.org
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
NOGAPS 18z favoring the Fujiwhara effect on two systems, one in the southern Caribbean and the other in the northeastern Pacific. This happens at around 144 hours. Looks like our next system will be in the EPAC right around the same place as Agatha.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
?


Whats the purple deal in the BOC?
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Well I meant the strongest June, July, August, September, October, and November landfalls in the USA.

And, actually this is the 1501st blog entry by Dr. Masters. There is a blog zero. Unfortunately, the first comment has been deleted, which may have been portentous.

Dr. Master's first blog entry.

I wonder who wrote the first comment, and what it said.
Oh I didn't know that. Thanks.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Atlantic remains quite. I do not expect any development through June 6, 2010.

I do not expect any development through June 10, 2010.
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An alert blogger noted that BP's Net feed has been HACKED/HIJACKED.


Check it out..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Quoting Patrap:

Biologists retrieve 35 oiled brown pelicans
By Cathy Hughes, The Times-Picayune
June 04, 2010, 6:28PM


Biologists retrieved 35 oiled brown pelicans and 15 oiled gulls Thursday in and around Grand Isle, the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries reported.

One pelican, dubbed "the governor's bird," was discovered by Gov. Bobby Jindal's staff as he toured the area.

Other rescue teams retrieved 10 oiled birds Thursday, including pelicans and a tern. All of the birds were collected from areas affected by the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

Wildlife and Fisheries Department Secretary Robert Barham said: "I am pleased that we were able to rescue so many birds, including our state bird, the brown pelican. But I'm afraid that our work has just started."

The wildlife rehabilitation triage center at Fort Jackson in Buras has processed 324 oiled birds since the Gulf of Mexico oil spill began. Nearly 200 birds were dead before their arrival at the center. Twenty-four birds have been treated and released.

Oil-spill responders have discovered 278 sea turtles in the five-state impact area, 68 of which were found in Louisiana. Three of the Louisiana turtles were observed covered in oil and brought to the Louisiana Marine Mammal and Sea Turtle Rescue Program facility in New Orleans.

Of 31 dolphins reported dead in the impact area, 20 were discovered in Louisiana. The cause of death is still pending in all cases.

For more information related to the oil spill, visit www.emergency.louisiana.gov. View photos from the state's response efforts at www.flickr.com/photos/lagohsep .


That's awful. Do you know of any charities in the area that are working with wildlife? I'd like to donate a few bucks to them.
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How rude of me.Good evening bloggers.
843. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Finally... some good news!

Tony Hayward To Step Down From Oil Spill Management In Surprise Move


Where did you see this? I'm looking on several new websites and don't see it.
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841. xcool





Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Excuse me but can someone post the impact weather forecast.I tried to watch the video on their website but it wouldn't work.
President Barack Obama dines on shrimp, tells Grand Isle business owners he understands their concerns
By Paul Rioux, The Times-Picayune
June 04, 2010, 5:45PM


President Barack Obama arrived on Grand Isle to a warm welcome from island residents. Accompanied by Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen, the national incident commander for response to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, Obama briefly visited Camardelle's Seafood, an island restaurant.

Back outside the restaurant he mingled with residents and crossed the street to go inside Camardelle's Live Bait, which advertises live shrimp and live croakers for sale. A large American flag is flapping outside the bait shop.

The bait store is owned by Chris Camardelle, the cousin of Grand Isle Mayor David Camardelle. Several members of the Camardelle family are on hand to meet the president.

"We've got to get a family picture before we leave,'' Obama joked.

With the president inside the bait store are Mayor Camardelle, Chris Camardelle, marina owner Dudley Gaspard, convenience store owner Patti Rigaud, shrimper Terry Vegas and Floyd Lasseigne, a oyster harvester.

Inside the shop, crawfish and grilled shrimp were spread on a table. Obama, eating shrimp, said it was important to hear the stories of small business owners affected by the spill.

"There are small companies like this across the Gulf and we need to make sure their voices are heard,'' Obama said. "You've got Thad Allen, but I want you to know that behind Thad Allen is the president of the United States.''

Mayor Camardelle said he requested barges to block five different passes between the Gulf and Caminada Bay. A productive estuary sits behind Caminada Bay, he said.

"If we can block these five passes we can save 2 million acres of oyster leases,'' Camardelle said. "If we lose the estuaries in the back we're finished.''

Obama said he understands the struggles of residents and business owners.

"These are folks who are used to hardship and know how to deal with it,'' he said. "But what they're concerned about is that this will have a lasting impact that they can't deal with.''

This marks the second week in a row that the president has visited Grand Isle. Obama toured a beach in Port Fourchon and sat in on a lengthy meeting with local and regional officials last Friday in Grand Isle.

Today's visit is to meet with residents who have been impacted by the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Grand Isle, a resort and fishing community with 1,200 full-time residents, relies heavily on tourism.

But the island's oil-fouled beaches have been closed and much of the area's fishing fleet is idle because of closed fishing grounds. Also, many area residents and business leaders worry that the Obama Administration's six-month moratorium on deepwater exploratory drilling will deal the local economy a devastating blow.

Speaking earlier today at Louis Armstrong International Airport in Kenner, the president said he would rely on the findings of his independent commission as to how drilling could resume safely.

"When I made the decision to issue the moratorium, we knew that that would have an economic impact,'' he said. "But what I also knew is that there was no way that we can go about business as usual when we discovered that companies like BP, who had provided assurances that they had fail-safe backup, redundant systems, in fact, not only didn't have fail-safe systems, but had no idea what to do when those fail-safe systems broke down.''

But Obama said he has told the commission chairs that that if those findings could be hastened, they need not wait for six months -- the duration of the commission -- to report back.

"If they can front-load some of the analysis of what went wrong and can do that more quickly than six months, let me know. Don't hold the results," the president said.

Obama also criticized BP for spending $50 million on television advertising to manage their image and planning to pay out $10 billion in dividends this quarter. "That's billion with a B,'' he said for emphasis.

Obama said he does not fault BP for making good on obligations to its shareholders. "But I want BP to be very clear, they've got moral and legal obligations here in the Gulf for the damage that has been done,'' he said.

With the kind of money BP is spending on advertising and shareholders, the president said he does not want BP "nickel and diming fishermen or small businesses here in the Gulf who are having a hard time.''

Meeting the president at the airport was a who's who of local and regional elected officials, including Gov. Bobby Jindal, Alabama Gov. Bob Riley, Florida Gov. Charlie Crist, U.S. Sen. David Vitter, R-La., U.S. Rep. Charlie Melancon, D-La,, U.S. Rep. Anh "Joseph" Cao, R-La., EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson, New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, Terrebonne Parish President Michel Claudet, Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser, Lafourche Parish President Charlotte Randolph, Jefferson Parish President Steve Theriot, Lafitte Mayor Tim Kerner, and Tracy Wareing, counselor to Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano for FEMA.





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Yep, I'm surprised he didn't choke on his on foot - every time he opened his mouth he stuck his foot in.... Glad he's off duty & back to his life. I fear it will take much longer for the coast to get "life back". : (
Quoting IKE:


Well...I guess he gets his life back.
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Biologists retrieve 35 oiled brown pelicans
By Cathy Hughes, The Times-Picayune
June 04, 2010, 6:28PM


Biologists retrieved 35 oiled brown pelicans and 15 oiled gulls Thursday in and around Grand Isle, the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries reported.

One pelican, dubbed "the governor's bird," was discovered by Gov. Bobby Jindal's staff as he toured the area.

Other rescue teams retrieved 10 oiled birds Thursday, including pelicans and a tern. All of the birds were collected from areas affected by the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

Wildlife and Fisheries Department Secretary Robert Barham said: "I am pleased that we were able to rescue so many birds, including our state bird, the brown pelican. But I'm afraid that our work has just started."

The wildlife rehabilitation triage center at Fort Jackson in Buras has processed 324 oiled birds since the Gulf of Mexico oil spill began. Nearly 200 birds were dead before their arrival at the center. Twenty-four birds have been treated and released.

Oil-spill responders have discovered 278 sea turtles in the five-state impact area, 68 of which were found in Louisiana. Three of the Louisiana turtles were observed covered in oil and brought to the Louisiana Marine Mammal and Sea Turtle Rescue Program facility in New Orleans.

Of 31 dolphins reported dead in the impact area, 20 were discovered in Louisiana. The cause of death is still pending in all cases.

For more information related to the oil spill, visit www.emergency.louisiana.gov. View photos from the state's response efforts at www.flickr.com/photos/lagohsep .
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
835. IKE
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Finally... some good news!

Tony Hayward To Step Down From Oil Spill Management In Surprise Move


Well...I guess he gets his life back.
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Quoting Beachfoxx:
Finally... some good news!

Tony Hayward To Step Down From Oil Spill Management In Surprise Move


Good, I had been hoping he would get his life back.
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WEATHER 456 a very interesting and strong tropical wave to exit the african coast tomorrow. the GFS and the ECMWF are hinting of a disturbance or depression in the vicinity of the islands the next ten days. should this happen it would be the first cape verde june storm. this wave will break away from the ITCZ and get into conditions which will be favourable for tropical storm development.
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Finally... some good news!

Tony Hayward To Step Down From Oil Spill Management In Surprise Move
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Quoting CaneWarning:


This is a stupid question, but what does the oil do to the birds? I imagine it could suffocate them not to mention fill them with toxins.


You pretty much answered it yourself, anything else to add?
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Quoting Patrap:
.."For the Love of everything Holy and with a Soul"..

Help Us..




Time is of the essence as race to save birds escalates


This is a stupid question, but what does the oil do to the birds? I imagine it could suffocate them not to mention fill them with toxins.
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Quoting frostynugs:
i can't get to any of the oil spill feeds, the main pbs one is dead, and when i click the live stream link on the deepwaterhorizonresponse.com page, nothing happens. any ideas?


EMP from the nuke?
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Quoting Weather456:
Good evening all


hey 456, doing some Hurricane Trivia in my blog if you are interested in looking in on it and maybe throwing a question or two out there
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Good evening all
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
even the link dental pain posted is dead. what is going on? do they not want us to see their latest attempt fail?
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.."For the Love of everything Holy and with a Soul"..

Help Us..




Time is of the essence as race to save birds escalates
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Daily update, anyone care to give advise would be nice!

Atlantic is sound asleep, Tropical Update 6/4/10
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
?


A tropical wave over on the EPAC side has a chance to develop, however it is forecasted to be drawn northward into the Gulf

It is possible that the tropical moisture helps create some development along the upper trough in the Gulf
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822. IKE
Quoting frostynugs:
i can't get to any of the oil spill feeds, the main pbs one is dead, and when i click the live stream link on the deepwaterhorizonresponse.com page, nothing happens. any ideas?


None working for me either.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Did anyone know that this is Jeff Masters' 1500th blog?


Wow, he's been logging lots of blogging!
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we do now!
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Did anyone know that this is Jeff Masters' 1500th blog?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
someone said that the atlantic is quiet, explain then the ends of what appears to be a trough that is located off the carolina coast. Could that be an arena for development or not?
Very low. I doubt we'll see development from it.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting frostynugs:
i can't get to any of the oil spill feeds, the main pbs one is dead, and when i click the live stream link on the deepwaterhorizonresponse.com page, nothing happens. any ideas?


try here
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someone said that the atlantic is quiet, explain then the ends of what appears to be a trough that is located off the carolina coast. Could that be an arena for development or not?
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I must be confused with being someone else here im here for wether and tropical systems! :)
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WOW, take a look at this. Subtropical jet might break away completely within 100 hours.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Dakster:


I am just a realist -- And it was said in jest.

Hopefully, 2010 does not end up making that list.
There's a saying about many a true word being said in jest. The potential is certainly there, at any rate.

And I think 2005 has to tie for that record if Cindy was upgraded at landfall....
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Even though you said it in jest there is a possibility of it becoming true, let's hope it doesn't.


I hear what you are saying and agree...
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If anyone wants to partake in the Hurricane Trivia while the season is quiet, head over to my blog; we are there now
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i can't get to any of the oil spill feeds, the main pbs one is dead, and when i click the live stream link on the deepwaterhorizonresponse.com page, nothing happens. any ideas?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


No he is just saying using the database from 1851 on
Oh. My bad.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Dakster:


I am just a realist -- And it was said in jest.

Hopefully, 2010 does not end up making that list.
Even though you said it in jest there is a possibility of it becoming true, let's hope it doesn't.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
But he said starting at 1851. If you do the math there could be 5 months of hurricanes.

1851 - 2010 = 159

159 * 5 = 795

So the answer would consist of 795 hurricane names.


No he is just saying using the database from 1851 on
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.