Long range oil spill forecast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:02 PM GMT on June 04, 2010

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Onshore winds out of the south, southwest, or west are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over through Tuesday, resulting in a continued threat of landfalling oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that these winds will generate a 0.5 mph current flowing from west to east along the Florida Panhandle coast Sunday through Tuesday. If this current develops as predicted, it will be capable of bringing light amounts of oil as far east as Panama City, Florida, by Wednesday. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now predict a return to a southeasterly wind regime, which would bring the oil back over Louisiana by mid-June. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.

Long range oil spill outlook
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) issued a press release yesterday showing 4-month model runs (Figure 1) of where the Deepwater Horizon oil spill might go. The model runs show that given typical ocean currents in the Gulf of Mexico, we can expect the oil to eventually affect most of the Florida Panhandle, Keys, and Florida East Coast, as well as coastal areas of South Carolina and North Carolina. Very little oil makes it to the West Florida "Forbidden Zone", where offshore-moving surface currents dominate. The oil may eventually affect three foreign countries: Mexico along the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba near Havana, and the Bahamas in the Bimini Islands and along the western side of Grand Bahama Island. Once oil does get into the Loop Current, it will probably reach the coasts of France, Spain, and Portugal in about a year. The oil will be too dilute by then to be noticeable, though.

The present ocean current configuration in the Gulf features a newly formed Loop Current Eddy (dubbed "Franklin"), which will tend to capture the majority of oil that flows southwards from the Deepwater Horizon spill site. A plot of drifting buoys (drifters) launched into the Gulf May 19 - 24 (Figure 2) reveals how this clockwise-rotating eddy has been capturing southward-moving surface water. Eddy Franklin will move slowly west-southwest at 2 - 3 mph in the coming weeks. By August or September, the eddy will have moved far enough west that the Loop Current will be able to push northwards towards the spill location again, increasing the chances of oil getting into the Loop Current and being advected through the Florida Straits and up the U.S. Southeast Coast. Between now and mid-August, I doubt that a significant amount of oil will get into the Loop Current, unless a hurricane or tropical storm goes through the Gulf of Mexico. I put the odds of this happening by mid-August at 50%. The odds of a named storm in the Gulf of Mexico will increase sharply after mid-August, when the peak portion of hurricane season arrives. Past history shows a 95% chance of getting two or more named storms in the Gulf of Mexico during hurricane seasons with above-normal activity.


Figure 1. Animation from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) showing one scenario of how oil released at the location of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on April 20 in the Gulf of Mexico may move in the upper 65 feet of the ocean.


Figure 2. During the R/V Bellows 19-24 May 2010 Cruise into the Loop Current, drifters were dropped on the eastern edge of the Loop Current. These drifters have all been caught in Loop Current Eddy "Franklin", and are orbiting the central Gulf of Mexico in clockwise loops. Additional drifters deployed by the Coast Guard over the past few weeks (orange colors) are also shown. The colored balloons show the starting location of the drifters. Image credit: University of South Florida.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Friday, June 4, 2010.

Tropical Cyclone Phet unleashes heavy rains on Oman
Tropical Cyclone Phet hit the northern tip of Oman yesterday as a Category 2 storm, bringing torrential rains and killing at least two people. Masirah, Oman recorded sustained winds of 74 mph yesterday, and Sur, Oman on the northeast coast has received 3.25 inches of rain so far. Phet was the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was stronger. Phet has emerged from the coast of Oman this morning, but is likely to weaken over the next day due to increased wind shear. Phet should hit Pakistan as a tropical storm on Saturday, bringing heavy rain and serious flooding.

Next update
I'll probably have one update over the weekend. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

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1355. xcool
yeal alot . you What's Going To Happen Next
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624
1353. xcool
:)!!
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624
1350. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624
1349. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number THIRTY-SEVEN
CYCLONIC STORM PHET (ARB02-2010)
8:30 AM IST June 5 2010
=======================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Phet over northwest Arabian Sea moved further northeastwards and lays centered over northwest Arabian Sea off Makaran coast near 24.5N 61.0E, about 120 km southwest of Jiwani, Pakistan, 600 km west-southwest of Karachi, Pakistan, 300 km northeast of Sur, Oman and 800 km west-northwest of Naliya, Gujarat.

Available observations and numerical weather prediction models guidance suggest that the system would weaken further and move east-northeastwards and cross Pakistan coast near 63.0ºE by tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:

i know the shear is there lol just saying it needs to be watched if it can get though it


Agreed completely. The models are indicating a significant relaxation of the shear across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico in just about two days.

Though, that's assuming that the system doesn't run into Mexico first.
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1346. xcool
MOVE TO N
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624
1345. Makoto1
That BOC blob seems to be about to meet its nemesis dry air. That isn't going to help it trying to get going but stranger things have happened I guess.
Sydney hit by twister and flash flooding


Emergency crews say they have responded to more than 400 calls for help as wild weather continues to lash parts of Sydney.

Flash flooding closed roads across the city, while a three-car accident on Roseville Bridge caused long delays.

Sydney was also hit by its own mini tornado, which damaged 11 homes in the city's eastern suburbs after it came ashore just before midday AEST.

Homes in Garrett Street, Maroubra, have mostly minor damage such as holes in roofs and tiles being blown off.

The wet weather is expected to continue well into the night. SES crews are on standby for more flooding.

The Sydney twister comes a day after more than 30 homes were damaged in the north coast town of Lennox Head when a waterspout crossed the coast and became a tornado.

Andrew Haigh from the Bureau of Meteorology says the Sydney storm was not as bad.

"The one in Lennox Head yesterday - we call it a full-scale tornado," he said.

"That was clearly more intense than what we have in Sydney today.

"The clouds are a lot lower, there isn't as much instability but nevertheless it is always possible in these situations that with the updraught of a shower cloud you can get a rotation of the air underneath...and the formation of what we would call a waterspout or a very small tornado."

Mr Haigh says the tornado was too small to be picked up on radar screens, and would have even been hard to see with the naked eye.

"The fact that not many people have spotted this is probably due to it being hidden amongst a lot of heavy rain, so it wouldn't have been all that visible," he explained.

"But it does appear there has been a significant whirlwind type feature which we'll call a water spout if it's coming in off the water, and that has caused some damage."

The bureau issued a flood warning for Sydney's east as heavy rain continued to lash suburbs.

Paul Johnson from the New South Wales Fire Brigade says crews have had a busy day.

"From about 1.30pm we had hundreds of firefighters out attending various incidents such as flooding, trees down, we were pumping out flooding basements, houses were about to flood," he said.Send us your pics

© ABC 2010
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1343. docrod
Quoting rossclick:
Know its not weather related... but as a fellow Hoosier.. RIP Coach Wooden, greatest of all time


Best ever - will be missed
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1342. xcool
fresh winds from the SSE
(37 km/h at 160
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624
Quoting btwntx08:
i was actually impress the way it look and how huge it will get...the next step is how will it do in water and though some shear that is yet to be determined


A large cirrus spike is currently being advected SW to NE to the north of the main convective activity, indicating strong southwesterly upper-level flow (shear).

Water vapor imagery also confirm this, and indeed, shows the aforementioned southwest flow quite well:

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1338. xcool
rob that a big Question
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624
Quoting TampaSpin:



You seen the live Feeds! It is ugly and looks just like it did when they put the CAP on the second they did......i believe the PIPE IS FROZEN and little is making to the top.....do you all think they wanna tell us its not working at this point.....they know we can't tell if it is or not.....JUST SAYIN


You have a right to be suspicious of BP. I am too, actually. I'm just hoping, is all. :/
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Well, it's to be expected that they won't be able to siphon all the oil. But if they can manage to reduce the flow rate by even a little, it will help immensely.



You seen the live Feeds! It is ugly and looks just like it did when they put the CAP on the second they did......i believe the PIPE IS FROZEN and little is making to the top.....do you all think they wanna tell us its not working at this point.....they know we can't tell if it is or not.....JUST SAYIN
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1334. xcool
Link


new ecmwf
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624
1333. xcool



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624
Quoting Levi32:


I'll be impressed when it actually IS in the BOC. Right now it's still over land and the thunderstorms were generated by the land, so I'd like to see thunderstorms with it tomorrow over water too before thinking much of it.


Yep it was just good Divergence caused by the heating of the land and causing Lift......will be interesting as you put it to see if anything can get to the surface in a couple of days......it will take at least 36hrs for anything to get to the surface as nothing was really at the 850mb Vorticity........NITE ALL!
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Gang i am hitting the sack......i don't know who the hell BP is trying fool.....they might be sucking up 1 gallon an hour but, that appears to be it when looking at the Live Feeds. And no Adminstrator i did not post my link! LMAO


Well, it's to be expected that they won't be able to siphon all the oil. But if they can manage to reduce the flow rate by even a little, it will help immensely.
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Quoting Levi32:


I'll be impressed when it actually IS in the BOC. Right now it's still over land and the thunderstorms were generated by the land, so I'd like to see thunderstorms with it tomorrow over water too before thinking much of it.


This too.
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Gang i am hitting the sack......i don't know who the hell BP is trying fool.....they might be sucking up 1 gallon an hour but, that appears to be it when looking at the Live Feeds. And no Adminstrator i did not post my link! LMAO
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Quoting btwntx08:
im a little impress with the aoi in boc and back a page or so stormw made a good point


It has to get through the strong vertical shear in the immediate vicinity first. If it survives that, I'll reconsider.

There's also the fact that low-level vorticity is terribly weak. The strongest vorticity is noted at the mid levels, indicating that this is not currently a particularly healthy system.
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1327. Levi32
Quoting btwntx08:
im a little impress with the aoi in boc and back a page or so stormw made a good point


I'll be impressed when it actually IS in the BOC. Right now it's still over land and the thunderstorms were generated by the land, so I'd like to see thunderstorms with it tomorrow over water too before thinking much of it.
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1326. xcool
boc look good
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624
Quoting xcool:
our first tropical system in the Caribbean or GOM .june 07 or june17.imo..


Most likely the latter. Not impressed with the BoC area.
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1323. xcool
our first tropical system in the Caribbean or GOM .june 07 or june17.imo..
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624
1322. xcool
intense convective boc
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1321. xcool


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1320. xcool
lmao haha
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1317. xcool
im wait on ecwmf
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1316. xcool
na
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1313. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624
Quoting btwntx08:
and there is that thing that kills the blog again lol


Many in Florida turn into pumpkins after 2am.......LOL
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1311. xcool
:)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15624
Quoting Jeff9641:


Did you get banned?


Ya i got banned for posting my website feed of the OIL SPILL LIVE FEEDS I posted ....i was just doing everyone a favor that they was wanting.....
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Sorry Jeff i was chatting on my site with another blogger...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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