Long range oil spill forecast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:02 PM GMT on June 04, 2010

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Onshore winds out of the south, southwest, or west are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over through Tuesday, resulting in a continued threat of landfalling oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that these winds will generate a 0.5 mph current flowing from west to east along the Florida Panhandle coast Sunday through Tuesday. If this current develops as predicted, it will be capable of bringing light amounts of oil as far east as Panama City, Florida, by Wednesday. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now predict a return to a southeasterly wind regime, which would bring the oil back over Louisiana by mid-June. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.

Long range oil spill outlook
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) issued a press release yesterday showing 4-month model runs (Figure 1) of where the Deepwater Horizon oil spill might go. The model runs show that given typical ocean currents in the Gulf of Mexico, we can expect the oil to eventually affect most of the Florida Panhandle, Keys, and Florida East Coast, as well as coastal areas of South Carolina and North Carolina. Very little oil makes it to the West Florida "Forbidden Zone", where offshore-moving surface currents dominate. The oil may eventually affect three foreign countries: Mexico along the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba near Havana, and the Bahamas in the Bimini Islands and along the western side of Grand Bahama Island. Once oil does get into the Loop Current, it will probably reach the coasts of France, Spain, and Portugal in about a year. The oil will be too dilute by then to be noticeable, though.

The present ocean current configuration in the Gulf features a newly formed Loop Current Eddy (dubbed "Franklin"), which will tend to capture the majority of oil that flows southwards from the Deepwater Horizon spill site. A plot of drifting buoys (drifters) launched into the Gulf May 19 - 24 (Figure 2) reveals how this clockwise-rotating eddy has been capturing southward-moving surface water. Eddy Franklin will move slowly west-southwest at 2 - 3 mph in the coming weeks. By August or September, the eddy will have moved far enough west that the Loop Current will be able to push northwards towards the spill location again, increasing the chances of oil getting into the Loop Current and being advected through the Florida Straits and up the U.S. Southeast Coast. Between now and mid-August, I doubt that a significant amount of oil will get into the Loop Current, unless a hurricane or tropical storm goes through the Gulf of Mexico. I put the odds of this happening by mid-August at 50%. The odds of a named storm in the Gulf of Mexico will increase sharply after mid-August, when the peak portion of hurricane season arrives. Past history shows a 95% chance of getting two or more named storms in the Gulf of Mexico during hurricane seasons with above-normal activity.


Figure 1. Animation from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) showing one scenario of how oil released at the location of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on April 20 in the Gulf of Mexico may move in the upper 65 feet of the ocean.


Figure 2. During the R/V Bellows 19-24 May 2010 Cruise into the Loop Current, drifters were dropped on the eastern edge of the Loop Current. These drifters have all been caught in Loop Current Eddy "Franklin", and are orbiting the central Gulf of Mexico in clockwise loops. Additional drifters deployed by the Coast Guard over the past few weeks (orange colors) are also shown. The colored balloons show the starting location of the drifters. Image credit: University of South Florida.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Friday, June 4, 2010.

Tropical Cyclone Phet unleashes heavy rains on Oman
Tropical Cyclone Phet hit the northern tip of Oman yesterday as a Category 2 storm, bringing torrential rains and killing at least two people. Masirah, Oman recorded sustained winds of 74 mph yesterday, and Sur, Oman on the northeast coast has received 3.25 inches of rain so far. Phet was the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was stronger. Phet has emerged from the coast of Oman this morning, but is likely to weaken over the next day due to increased wind shear. Phet should hit Pakistan as a tropical storm on Saturday, bringing heavy rain and serious flooding.

Next update
I'll probably have one update over the weekend. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

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1905. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting TropicalWave:


It needs to move a little bit more to the west, ^_^.
i kinda like it where it is
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54239
See ya later people...
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1902. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54239
Quoting MrstormX:
New Orleans Area tornado!:



870
WFUS54 KLIX 051913
TORLIX
LAC063-091-105-051945-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0022.100605T1913Z-100605T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
213 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. HELENA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...

30 miles to my NW
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1898. 4Gaia
Back from the beach. This is unbearable.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
.


all so i see flying cows

LOL
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Quoting hydrus:
I believe the Lesser Antilles have a high risk of a strike this year. And with all that warm water, it most likely will be a major hurricane.jmo
Not just the -lesser- antilles... all of them have a great chance of being affected this year.
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1893. scott39
Quoting pottery:

Kind of puts it in Perspective, does'nt it?
"no one really knows"
that's the saddest part....
Its unfortunate that I had to answer my son like that, Because he's looking to me and other people in authority positions to fix it. He just got a big spoonful of reality. Hopefully our young generation of people will do a better job!
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1892. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number FORTY-ONE
CYCLONIC STORM PHET (ARB02-2010)
20:30 PM IST June 5 2010
=======================================

At 15:00 PM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Phet over northwest Arabian Sea off Makaran coast moved further eastwards and lays centered near 24.5N 62.0E, or 80 kms south southeast of Jiwani, Pakistan, 500 kms west southwest of Karachi, Pakistan, and 700 kms west northwest of Naliya, Gujarat.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 35 knots with a central pressure of 996 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the system's center.

Satellite imagery shows broken intense convection over southwest Pakistan adjoining Iran and Arabian Sea north of 23.0N and east of 64.5E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is -65C in association with the system.

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is moderate to high as the system is under the influence of mid latitude westerlies. The system lies to north of upper tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 23.0N over the region.

The system would weaken gradually and move east northeastward and cross Pakistan coast near 66.0E between 15:00 - 18:00 PM UTC, tomorrow.

Gale winds of 35-40 knots with gusts of 45 knots would occur along and off Makaran coast during the next 12 hours and reduce to 30-35 knots thereafter. Sea conditions will be high along and off this coast during the next 12 hours and very rough thereafter.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
3 HRS: 24.5N 62.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
27 HRS: 25.5N 66.5E - 20 knots (Low Pressure Area)
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1891. xcool
MrstormX lol
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1890. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128609
Quoting xcool:
June 07, or 17 first names storms .


Hahah thats pretty random...
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1888. xcool
June 07, or 17 first names storms .
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1887. hercj
Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS JUNE 05, 2010 ISSUED 8:20 A.M. PHTFC

hey storm you up for a question
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i be carefull on what you wish for you may get it if you like it or not


all so i see flying cows
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Quoting MrstormX:


Seems to me the news media is giving BP to much credit for this, the flow increased when they cut the pipe so even if they are collecting some oil, there is still tons pouring out maybe as bad as always.


This particular approach has in all likelihood been a lost cause since the saw blade stopped sawing.Success was predicated on achieving a very tidy saw cut over which they could lower a pipe with, in essence, an inverted funnel (the "LMRP cap"). What they actually lowered is a top hat, probably the one that has been sitting on the seabed since the "suck it with a straw" approach was adopted as a better alternative.
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New Orleans Area tornado!:



870
WFUS54 KLIX 051913
TORLIX
LAC063-091-105-051945-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0022.100605T1913Z-100605T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
213 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL LIVINGSTON PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEASTERN ST. HELENA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN TANGIPAHOA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF AMITE...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 211 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
MONTPELIER...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AMITE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ROSELAND AND AMITE BY 235 PM CDT...
7 MILES SOUTH OF KENTWOOD BY 245 PM CDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1883. pottery
Going to make some more noise with the Mower.
Need to sweat this feeling of doom out of the system.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24369
1882. xcool
lmao
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
881
WUUS51 KGYX 051908
SVRGYX
NHC007-051945-
/O.NEW.KGYX.SV.W.0014.100605T1908Z-100605T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
308 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY MAINE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN COOS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 306 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES WEST OF
LANCASTER...OR 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF ST. JOHNSBURY...AND MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
GUILDHALL...LANCASTER...PINKHAM NOTCH...MOUNT WASHINGTON AND
BERLIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE.
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in a week or two you be wishing for the off season
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1879. pottery
Quoting scott39:
Wind was strong and water was muddy, but we still had a good time. My 13 year old son, which ive taken there since he was 3, asked me "Dad am i going to be able to bring my kids here"? I was speechless,and all i could say was,"buddy no one really knows"!

Kind of puts it in Perspective, does'nt it?
"no one really knows"
that's the saddest part....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24369
Hey StormW
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1877. leo305
waiting for those storms to go BOOM over dade
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
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1874. IKE
12Z ECMWF shows no threats through June 15th...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1873. pottery
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


"people are crazy and times have changed" - same poet years later

Ah! Those Days!
How times have changed, what would SnoopDog or Lady Gaga have to say, I wonder?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24369
Quoting TropicalWave:
It feels like the off season, Mr. X. LOL.


Lol I know right...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1870. scott39
Quoting asgolfr999:


I fish there 50 times a year, the white trout were nibbling pretty good last week. As long as the oil stays on the gulf side of the island, the pier should be fine.
Wind was strong and water was muddy, but we still had a good time. My 13 year old son, which ive taken there since he was 3, asked me "Dad am i going to be able to bring my kids here"? I was speechless,and all i could say was,"buddy no one really knows"!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Afternoon,

Dunno if anyone posted this, but here is a local report from yesterday from severe storms in Dade County.
6/04/2010 0550 PM

Miami Beach, Miami-Dade County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e63.00 mph, reported by broadcast media.


Media reported wind gust of 63 mph near Alton Rd and 195.





06/04/2010 0554 PM

Miami Beach, Miami-Dade County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e58.00 mph, reported by broadcast media.


Media reported wind gust of 58 mph at the Miami Beach
fire Rescue.




06/04/2010 0555 PM

Miami Beach, Miami-Dade County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e74.00 mph, reported by broadcast media.


Media reported 74 mph wind gust near near Alton Rd and
195.




06/04/2010 0600 PM

Miami Beach, Miami-Dade County.

Flood, reported by NWS employee.


NWS employee reported water level increasing rapidly on
roads and capable of reaching buildings lobby area near
Washington and 12th street.




06/04/2010 0600 PM

Miami Beach, Miami-Dade County.

Hail e0.25 inch, reported by broadcast media.


Media reported pea size hail near Bay Rd and 10th street.





06/04/2010 0628 PM

Miami Beach, Miami-Dade County.

Flash flood, reported by broadcast media.


Media reported 4.04 inches of rain near 12th street and
Washington.





06/04/2010 0555 PM

Miami Beach, Miami-Dade County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e74 mph, reported by broadcast media.


Media reported 74 mph wind gust near near Alton Rd and
195.





06/04/2010 0600 PM

Miami Beach, Miami-Dade County.

Hail e0.25 inch, reported by broadcast media.


Media reported pea size hail near Bay Rd and 10th street.





06/04/2010 0628 PM

Miami Beach, Miami-Dade County.

Flash flood, reported by broadcast media.


Media reported 4.04 inches of rain near 12th street and
Washington.





06/04/2010 0554 PM

Miami Beach, Miami-Dade County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e58 mph, reported by broadcast media.


Media reported wind gust of 58 mph at the Miami Beach
fire Rescue.





06/04/2010 0600 PM

Miami Beach, Miami-Dade County.

Flood, reported by NWS employee.


NWS employee reported water level increasing rapidly on
roads and capable of reaching buildings lobby area near
Washington and 12th street.





06/04/2010 0550 PM

Miami Beach, Miami-Dade County.

Thunderstorm wind gust e63 mph, reported by broadcast media.


Media reported wind gust of 63 mph near Alton Rd and 195.



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1866. pottery
Quoting stoormfury:
just got back from the beach at pidgeon point on ST Lucia northwest coast and the SST was 86 deg.

Sounds pretty idyllic to me. I could sit in that all day long and not get 'quailey-fingers'.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24369
This place dies quickly...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Beyond a Shadow of a doubt.
I have noticed, however, that the Mango's here are not very nice this season. Plentiful and Bad.
Another 'sign & portent'?
" For the times
they are a'changing"


"people are crazy and times have changed" - same poet years later
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just got back from the beach at pidgeon point on ST Lucia northwest coast and the SST was 86 deg.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sheesh here comes another new one, this thing is poping quick.

547
WFUS51 KCLE 051852
TORCLE
OHC083-051930-
/O.NEW.KCLE.TO.W.0022.100605T1852Z-100605T1930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
252 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN KNOX COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 246 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GAMBIER...OR NEAR MOUNT VERNON...AND MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARTINSBURG...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. IF NO
BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR CLOSET.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Fresh One:

978
WFUS51 KPBZ 051851
TORPBZ
OHC019-067-157-051930-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.TO.W.0006.100605T1851Z-100605T1930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
251 PM EDT SAT JUN 5 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL HARRISON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OHIO...
NORTHERN TUSCARAWAS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OHIO...
SOUTHERN CARROLL COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OHIO...

* UNTIL 330 PM EDT

* AT 248 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
SUGARCREEK...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
SUGARCREEK... STRASBURG... DOVER...
NEW PHILADELPHIA... UHRICHSVILLE... DENNISON...
SHERRODSVILLE... DELLROY...
LEESVILLE LAKE PARK... BOWERSTON...
TAPPAN... SCIO...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE. 1-877-633-6772. WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.
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1860. pottery
Quoting aspectre:
Considering that pottery's calabash has maintained a 20year record of infallibility in predicting the beginning of rainy season, maybe the mangos also know more than we think.

Beyond a Shadow of a doubt.
I have noticed, however, that the Mango's here are not very nice this season. Plentiful and Bad.
Another 'sign & portent'?
" For the times
they are a'changing"
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24369
Quoting scott39:
My son and I went fishing at Cedar Point pier last night at Dauphin Island . Thankfully, the oil hasnt gotten on that side yet. The fish werent biting that well,but it was a relief we still are able to go fishing there for now!


I fish there 50 times a year, the white trout were nibbling pretty good last week. As long as the oil stays on the gulf side of the island, the pier should be fine.
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Quoting MrstormX:


Im trying to keep people prepared, to expect the unexpected. What im saying is that the GFS has been hinting for days that a potential disturbance in the BOC could quickly show strong vorticity. That doesn't mean its going to be a Tropical System, but it means the potential for something (tropical or non) is there.
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Quoting leo305:


so you are telling me it's going to go from a weak mid level swirl to a chaotic potentially Tropical storm strength surface circulation in 12-18 hours?


Im trying to keep people prepared, to expect the unexpected. What im saying is that the GFS has been hinting for days that a potential disturbance in the BOC could quickly show strong vorticity. That doesn't mean its going to be a Tropical System, but it means the potential for something is there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1856. scott39
My son and I went fishing at Cedar Point pier last night at Dauphin Island . Thankfully, the oil hasnt gotten on that side yet. The fish werent biting that well,but it was a relief we still are able to go fishing there for now!
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.