Long range oil spill forecast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:02 PM GMT on June 04, 2010

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Onshore winds out of the south, southwest, or west are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over through Tuesday, resulting in a continued threat of landfalling oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that these winds will generate a 0.5 mph current flowing from west to east along the Florida Panhandle coast Sunday through Tuesday. If this current develops as predicted, it will be capable of bringing light amounts of oil as far east as Panama City, Florida, by Wednesday. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now predict a return to a southeasterly wind regime, which would bring the oil back over Louisiana by mid-June. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.

Long range oil spill outlook
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) issued a press release yesterday showing 4-month model runs (Figure 1) of where the Deepwater Horizon oil spill might go. The model runs show that given typical ocean currents in the Gulf of Mexico, we can expect the oil to eventually affect most of the Florida Panhandle, Keys, and Florida East Coast, as well as coastal areas of South Carolina and North Carolina. Very little oil makes it to the West Florida "Forbidden Zone", where offshore-moving surface currents dominate. The oil may eventually affect three foreign countries: Mexico along the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba near Havana, and the Bahamas in the Bimini Islands and along the western side of Grand Bahama Island. Once oil does get into the Loop Current, it will probably reach the coasts of France, Spain, and Portugal in about a year. The oil will be too dilute by then to be noticeable, though.

The present ocean current configuration in the Gulf features a newly formed Loop Current Eddy (dubbed "Franklin"), which will tend to capture the majority of oil that flows southwards from the Deepwater Horizon spill site. A plot of drifting buoys (drifters) launched into the Gulf May 19 - 24 (Figure 2) reveals how this clockwise-rotating eddy has been capturing southward-moving surface water. Eddy Franklin will move slowly west-southwest at 2 - 3 mph in the coming weeks. By August or September, the eddy will have moved far enough west that the Loop Current will be able to push northwards towards the spill location again, increasing the chances of oil getting into the Loop Current and being advected through the Florida Straits and up the U.S. Southeast Coast. Between now and mid-August, I doubt that a significant amount of oil will get into the Loop Current, unless a hurricane or tropical storm goes through the Gulf of Mexico. I put the odds of this happening by mid-August at 50%. The odds of a named storm in the Gulf of Mexico will increase sharply after mid-August, when the peak portion of hurricane season arrives. Past history shows a 95% chance of getting two or more named storms in the Gulf of Mexico during hurricane seasons with above-normal activity.


Figure 1. Animation from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) showing one scenario of how oil released at the location of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on April 20 in the Gulf of Mexico may move in the upper 65 feet of the ocean.


Figure 2. During the R/V Bellows 19-24 May 2010 Cruise into the Loop Current, drifters were dropped on the eastern edge of the Loop Current. These drifters have all been caught in Loop Current Eddy "Franklin", and are orbiting the central Gulf of Mexico in clockwise loops. Additional drifters deployed by the Coast Guard over the past few weeks (orange colors) are also shown. The colored balloons show the starting location of the drifters. Image credit: University of South Florida.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Friday, June 4, 2010.

Tropical Cyclone Phet unleashes heavy rains on Oman
Tropical Cyclone Phet hit the northern tip of Oman yesterday as a Category 2 storm, bringing torrential rains and killing at least two people. Masirah, Oman recorded sustained winds of 74 mph yesterday, and Sur, Oman on the northeast coast has received 3.25 inches of rain so far. Phet was the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was stronger. Phet has emerged from the coast of Oman this morning, but is likely to weaken over the next day due to increased wind shear. Phet should hit Pakistan as a tropical storm on Saturday, bringing heavy rain and serious flooding.

Next update
I'll probably have one update over the weekend. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

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Viewing: 2006 - 1956

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2006. IKE
Quoting 850Realtor:


Pensacola


That heavy rain is edging closer to Ft. Walton and Niceville. Hope it goes somewhere else but here.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
336 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010

FLC033-113-052230-
/O.NEW.KMOB.FA.Y.0027.100605T2036Z-100605T2230Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ESCAMBIA FL-SANTA ROSA FL-
336 PM CDT SAT JUN 5 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR FLOODING OF POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS IN...
SOUTHERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PENSACOLA...
SOUTHERN SANTA ROSA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NAVARRE...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 330 PM CDT...RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF ONE TO TWO AND A
HALF INCHES HAVE FALLEN RECENTLY...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
ESCAMBIA AND SANTA ROSA COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

TO REPORT FLOODING TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...CALL TOLL FREE
AT 1 8 7 7 6 3 3 6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3036 8741 3036 8742 3052 8734 3054 8719
3052 8714 3042 8716 3038 8725 3034 8726
3034 8721 3039 8718 3046 8693 3051 8703
3055 8701 3045 8709 3055 8714 3055 8713
3062 8678 3040 8680 3028 8753
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2005. bassis
Off subject but the NWS issued a tornado watch for the entire stat of New Hampshire. I don't believe since I moved here in 82 that i have ever seen this
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1989

Nice song, never had much use for music but that one is pretty cool. I thought he sang about tropical drinks and beaches? Now I got to go google him!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2002. divdog
Quoting pottery:
I see that BP is saying that they have captured about 250,000 gals of oil since they put the cap on. And they still have relief valves to close.
Well, thats the most optimistic news I have heard in 46 days of this.
Now, when do we get our life back?
(on behalf of the Affected ones)
A guy was just saying if they can find the right combination of valve closure, pressure and avoid ice crystals they believe they can capture up to 90% of the flow. Man would that be welcome news or what. He also said if the area is threatened by a storm they will have to stop pumping completely until is passes. Lets hope for no storms and the cap to continue to work better. We could use some good news.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1999. xcool
TropicalWave: i have HTC HD2..
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Quoting 850Realtor:


Pensacola

???
Not all that much...yet.

Unless you are in a valley, or something...

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1997. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting lavinia:


True enough. I live near the Grand River and it's gettig back to a good depth. Good for the fishing. :)

good soaker coming
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53611
Thanks everyone :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


What city?


Pensacola
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1992. lavinia
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we need the rain its been dry


True enough. I live near the Grand River and it's gettig back to a good depth. Good for the fishing. :)
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Hi Storm W

Thanks For the updates all winter long.
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1990. IKE
Quoting TropicalWave:
By the way, Ike. I can always blog through my IPhone, after the impact of a cane, ^_^. I'll never seperate myself from this lovable website.


:)
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1989. IKE
Jimmy Buffett laments the fouling of his paradise

One of his best songs....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1988. xcool
pottery bye sir
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1986. pottery
Quoting xcool:
pottery :0



28.go on 29

Same age as my youngest daughter.
Good to meet you.
And Yes, nice Kid.
I'm out>>>>>>>>
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24264
Quoting 850Realtor:
Where would I be able to find out how much rain we are getting out of this thunderstorm? My yard is flooded and it's still pouring.

Near an official ob site, rain total report should be available and updated hourly, 3-hourly, or 6-hourly.

Otherwise, radar storm total and hourly rainfall estimate can be used.

Mine looks like this:


Click the "advanced" tab on the left of the WU radar and click "Storm total"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1984. IKE
Quoting 850Realtor:
Where would I be able to find out how much rain we are getting out of this thunderstorm? My yard is flooded and it's still pouring.


What city?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1983. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting lavinia:
#1966

Hi KOG...I'm getting really tired of these thunderstorms. My garden is floating. LOL
we need the rain its been dry
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53611
1982. GBguy88
Quoting 850Realtor:
Where would I be able to find out how much rain we are getting out of this thunderstorm? My yard is flooded and it's still pouring.
Quoting IKE:
Heavy rains in and around Pensacola......



Yes, it's been pouring here for a good long while now. Lots of thunder/lightning. Mildly surprised there isn't a flash flood advisory. Maybe it seems heavier than it is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1981. pottery
OK, I am out.
Stopped sweating from my Mowing escapade.
Going to have a shower and head for the City Lights.
Feels like a good night to Misbehave a little........
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24264
1980. lavinia
#1966

Hi KOG...I'm getting really tired of these thunderstorms. My garden is floating. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Where would I be able to find out how much rain we are getting out of this thunderstorm? My yard is flooded and it's still pouring.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Tested the generator, check
Spare shingles and tarps in shed, check
Can goods, bottled water, check
Aluminum panels for windows in shed, check
All important papers and photos in fire proof box, check
All trees trimmed, check
Empty gas cans in shed for generator if necessary check
Money in ATM in case we need to evacuate, Darn 4 months unemployed and 3 months as a temp, and they paid our ceo 300 million just so they could fire him! Still don’t understand
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1976. IKE
Heavy rains in and around Pensacola......

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1975. xcool
pottery :0



28.go on 29
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting masonsnana:
I think he was just here

Aha! Was in here an hour ago.
And posted a radar loop (not likely from a mobile device).
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1973. pottery
Quoting atmoaggie:
I hope Patrap isn't out where he was going. They are getting pounded, repeatedly...

(They were going to do something outside in Manchac)

They were going to salvage a 300 lb buoy. Hope it does not get away from them and fly away...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24264
Quoting atmoaggie:
I hope Patrap isn't out where he was going. They are getting pounded, repeatedly...

(They were going to do something outside in Manchac)
I think he was just here
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
thanks atmoaggie .He's my life..
Who old are you?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21162
Quoting xcool:
thanks atmoaggie .He's my life..

And he should be.

Never understand those that seem to not enjoy spending time with their kids.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Inre 30degeesWest, I see more rotation north of the CapeVerdes than in the wave south of it.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1967. IKE
Just a little humid outside....

Windmaster Farms, DeFuniak Springs, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago
Thunderstorm
84.2 °F
Thunderstorm
Humidity: 84%
Dew Point: 79 °F
Wind: 5.7 mph from the SE
Wind Gust: 8.1 mph
Pressure: 29.92 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 96 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 2100 ft
Mostly Cloudy 2900 ft
Overcast 5500 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 237 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1966. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)



we got a special statement flying


Special weather statement issued for..
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington.

..Significant rainfall on the way for most regions - and the
additional threat for severe thunderstorms for extreme southwestern
Ontario..

A low pressure system over Iowa this afternoon will track eastward
across Lake Erie tonight then south of Lake Ontario Sunday.
Rain ahead of the low will reach areas near Lake Huron early this
evening and the Golden Horseshoe area near midnight. A general
rainfall of 20 to 40 mm is expected. The rain will taper off Sunday
morning.

Extreme Southwestern Ontario and Lake Erie will lie near the track of
the low and can expect extensive thunderstorm activity this evening
and overnight. Localized very heavy rainfall amounts in excess of
50 mm will be possible from these storms. The extreme southwest and
Lake Erie will also need to monitored for the threat of severe
thunderstorms with damaging winds this evening and into the overnight
period.

Listen for further statements and possible watches or warnings.

END/OSPC
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53611
1965. pottery
Quoting xcool:
thanks atmoaggie .He's my life..

LOL
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24264
I hope Patrap isn't outside where he was going. They are getting pounded, repeatedly...

(They were going to do something outside in Manchac)

Might be on the way back or given up.
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1963. xcool
thanks atmoaggie .He's my life..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
<<< get old here..lmao

cute kid.
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1961. xcool
<<< get old here..lmao
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Quoting atmoaggie:

No nado threat, just the typical T-storms...*can* push some winds, not like of the severe variety, atm.

soon as I say that, the last 2 frames show a little rotation right about where errantlythought lives...



Beau Chene and a little NE...
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1959. pottery
Quoting xcool:
pottery.HEY

Good Afternoon, Young Man.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24264
1957. xcool
pottery.HEY
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:

Enough for marine warnings...wouldn't surprise if the Causeway were closed, atm, too.

No nado threat, just the typical T-storms...*can* push some winds, not likely of the severe variety, atm.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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