Caribbean disturbance still unimpressive

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:12 PM GMT on September 27, 2005

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The tropical disturbance in the central Caribbean sea, south of Jamiaca, is still small and disorganized, and will not become a tropical depression today. The reconnaissance airplane scheduled to visit the area today will probably be cancelled. The disturbance has no surface circulation, surface pressures are not falling significantly, and there is about 10 knots of shear over it--which is marginal for tropical storm development. However, the largest burst of deep convection we've seen yet with this system began at about 4am EDT this morning, and the disturbance now has an expanding area of thunderstorms with cold tops that may signify the beginnings of an attempt to organize into a tropical depression. The disturbance has slowed its forward motion to about 10 mph to the west-northwest. This motion is forecast to slow down even further over the next three days, which will keep the system in the western Caribbean through Friday, and favor development.

I expect that we won't see a depression until late Wednesday, when the upper-level wind shear is forecast to relax significantly. I still give this disturbance a 70% chance of becoming a tropical storm by Friday, when it should be in the western Caribbean near Cuba or the Yucatan Peninsula. The global computer models do not develop this system into a tropical storm, and are not much help in forecasting what will happen. The GFS model predicts that the system will cross the Yucatan Peninsula into the southwest Gulf of Mexico early next week, but this forecast is too far in the future to give much credence to.


Figure 1. Early run of the BAMM model takes the Caribbean disturbance into the Yucatan Peninsula. It appears that the BAMM model got initialized with the disturbance too far to the south, so the projected track shown here is probably too far to the south.

Africa westward
The ITCZ is active in the region extending from the African coast westwards for 1000 miles. Some of the global computer models are forecasting that a tropical storm will develop along this area later this week.

Gulf of Mexico
A cluster of thunderstorms accosiated with the tail end of the cold front that pulled Rita northeast across the U.S. is over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Strong upper levels winds are producing 30 knots of shear over this region and should prevent any development for at least the next two days.

Alaska and Hawaii
We don't talk much about these states in my tropical blog, but Nome, Alaska had a huge mid-latitude cyclone hit them Friday. The storm brought sustained tropical storm force winds gusting to 52 mph, a 10-foot storm surge, and a pressure of 972 mb! This was in essence a Category 1 hurricane, as far as the storm surge and pressure go. Thanks to wunderphotographer Destiny, who brought this newspaper article to my attention.

Hawaii has its second tropical system of the season to be concerned with. Hawaii dodged major Hurricane Jova last week, andTropical Storm Kenneth is expected to pass within 100 miles of the Islands by the end of the week. Kenneth should only be a tropical depression by then, and bring a few extra rain showers to the islands.

Jeff Masters

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71. Pensacola21
5:53 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
Cute poem ..
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
70. Pensacola21
5:52 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
Hey Stormy, Jeff has a new blog, everyone moved there =)
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
69. stormydee
5:51 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
Little Stan has a plan
To hold together if he can
He wants to be 19 for us
But he needs some stronger gusts!
Yet the wind, it interferes
It tells Stan where to steer
But he says no, he's gonna slow...
No wind's gonna tell him where to go
So maybe by the end of tonight,
Stans plan will work out right.




Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
68. WillJax
5:36 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
Stan Blob Jr. looks to have an anticyclone very close to his center of convection, helping create some excellent outflow. His upper level divergence has greatly increased compared with6 hours ago. He is much more presentable than he was yesterday, that's for sure!

If this keeps up I would think that he could become TD18 by 11am tomorrow.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
67. IKE
5:30 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
A new BLOG for Dr. Masters.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
66. IKE
5:28 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
This from the 2:05 pm EDT Atlantic tropical weather discussion...."Special feature...
Central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75w/76w S of Cuba with
a 1010 mb low along the wave near 14n. Observations from buoy
42058 suggest there is a weak low associated with the wave with
wly winds recently reported...though those winds are likely
enhanced by downdrafts and outflow boundaries. Visible
satellite pictures show banding features developing on the N
side of the wave with symmetric outflow. This area has the
potential to become a tropical cyclone within the next 36
hours. A slow movement to the WNW is likely... placing the
system in the W Caribbean late Wed/early Thu."

Can you say Stan?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
65. stormydee
5:26 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
I see Rita isn't having a comeback...Stan will be here soon...but what about the other blobs out there? One NE of the Virgin Islands and one SE of the Lesser Antilles?
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
64. weatherspirit
5:26 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
thanks Doc, i always like using the RGB satellite. it brings greater resolution than even a regular VIS sat pic. Would be interesting to see the Obs for Jamaica later on.
63. stormydee
5:21 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
Destiny, Jeff put u in his blog...u r special!!! :-)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
62. DocNDswamp
5:20 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
weatherspirit, thanks..nice link. Dang it...might have to retract my earlier retraction!

Low level circulation apparent and centered near 15N 76W w/ healthy convection. The slowed forward motion from about 15mph yesterday to near 10mph today, as Dr. Masters mentioned, is aiding development.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
61. willdd1979
5:18 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
Why does Steve say something different about the blob then what jeff is saying? Who do I listen to I'm confused(LOL)
59. pearlandtx
5:11 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
Damn, I just got through taking down the plywood and putting the lawn furniture back out by the pool.
58. IKE
5:04 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
Agree. I don't want any storms....tired of running from them! They are fun to track, but NOT to experience.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
57. Pensacola21
5:02 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
I remember when Dennis hit us, there was a high pressure over the eatern US and Atlantic and one over the SW GULF and Texas...
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
56. Pensacola21
4:59 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
Ike, good for us, bad for them
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
55. IKE
4:58 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
It does look like it's starting to rotate.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
54. IKE
4:55 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
The latest GFS has strong high pressure building in over the eastern US and Atlantic for the next week and a half. Might force Stan westward.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
53. weatherspirit
4:54 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
Close-up RGB Loop of tropical disturbance - starting to rotate more... Go Stan!!!

Link
52. Pensacola21
4:48 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
Hey Stormy, Destiny... =)
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
51. Destiny
4:45 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
Makes you wonder sometimes doesn't it TPaul. Yea that science seemed a bit far fetched, but look at the "SCIENCE" in the Gulf these days.
Member Since: September 1, 2002 Posts: 10 Comments: 1
50. IKE
4:43 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
I think it's about where Steve Gregory said it was in his blog...14.5N/75.1W...with and without my glasses on.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
49. stormydee
4:42 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
going to lunch, will be back shortly. :-)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
48. TPaul
4:39 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
Begining to think that the Day after Tommorow was not such fiction even though I know the science in it was a bit of a stretch. Hate to see what this winter brings.
Member Since: May 2, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 111
47. IKE
4:38 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
okay...only names from now on. Stan is something to keep an eye on with this weather pattern.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
46. stormydee
4:38 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
I zoomed in on the water vapor loop Link, I think Im seeing our circulation. Go Stan!!!!!
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
45. CoconutCreekFLA
4:37 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
Hi All!

You got to admit it was fun to call it the virgin blob :)
44. stormydee
4:36 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
IKE - how bout Stan and Rita? that way no one confuses blobbies. :-)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
43. stormydee
4:34 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
This should have been for yesterday when wannabe was being such a pain to lefty, especially the last sentence in the paragraph.
September 27, 2005 Today's Outlook: It's a relatively quiet day on the celestial highway with no major aspects occurring. We may feel somewhat sluggish as energetic Mars slows down, preparing to begin his 8-week retrograde phase on October 1. The Moon does, however, enter lively Leo at 10:02 am EDT, encouraging us to put our thoughts and feelings out into the open, but the downside of this is that we can attract more attention than we really need. Most of us could benefit by shining the spotlight on others and appreciating them for what they add to our lives.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
42. IKE
4:32 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
My bad...i've been calling the system south of jamaica blobby jr. Rita was blobby to me.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
41. IKE
4:30 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
I chased Opal too...AWAY from her. She was a 150 mph buzzsaw in the gulf. I live in Defuniak Spgs...and jumped in my car and headed east to AVOID her. Fortunately she weakened before landfall, but she was still a beast. Kind of like Rita's strength when she made landfall. I remember seeing boats across highway 98 in Fort Walton. An unbelievable sight!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
40. DocNDswamp
4:27 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
from Mon. 9-26-05 aftn. post: I expect TD19 to be recognized by NHC by noon tomorrow, certainly by the 5pm advisory and probably TS Stan (50mph) on Wed. with continued WNW (285) movement @ 15 to 17 mph.

heh, heh, heh,...so much for my earlier prediction. Confucius say: don't base trop cyclone predictions on 6 hour run of 6 hour old image. lol.

Environment becoming more favorable today.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4794
39. Pensacola21
4:27 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
Ike you got that right UGH... Are you located here in FL?
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
38. stormydee
4:27 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
ah, so everyone is calling blobby (by caribbean)and blobby jr (in the gulf)...I can tell windshears are pretty strong out there from i.r. sat.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
37. IKE
4:25 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
I found this in the Fort Worth, Texas discussion this morning. I was just looking at the forecast for different areas in the southeast for the coming week...."An aside: I wonder if the
climatologically late Southern Plains sth "teleconnects" to the
upper level pattern in the tropical Atlantic Ocean that has made for
such a devastating hurricane season? Some similar patterns were seen
in 1995's hurricane season."....

UGH...the 95 hurricane season was when Opal formed.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
36. weatherboyfsu
4:24 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
Opal hit in october.....me and my friend chased her....we ended up under an overpass on I-10 because the winds were so bad......that area in the caribbean is still looking good....it looks to be developing a depression to me....
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
35. Pensacola21
4:13 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
Wow, Opal did have a weird track... Good comparison... I didn't remember her track being as I was only 11 when she hit, lol... I remember when she tore up our beaches though..
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
34. napleswx
4:12 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
Pensacola.

Opal
33. Pensacola21
4:10 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
I'm gonna go look up Opal's track, just for comparison...
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
32. Pensacola21
4:08 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
Oh I see... =)
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
31. IKE
4:07 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
I'm just saying it goes into the Yucatan and is forced northward. Nothing more than that...Im no meteorologist...just that type scenario.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
30. Pensacola21
4:05 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
What do you mean Ike, like where Opal hit or strength?
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
29. IKE
4:01 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
You could be right about the upper low causing a SSW wind...but it sure looks like a circulation is trying to develop south of Jamaica.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
27. weatherboyfsu
3:55 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
NO recon flights today...or tomorrow at least on the NHC site.....that seems unusual to me but oh well.....its maintained convection for quite sometime......the surface winds look like their shifting some......coming around....and the SSW wind at jamaica is not unusual....there is a big upper level low north of cuba possibly influencing the winds there......
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
26. hmfynn
3:54 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
putin, where did you see it hitting LA?

and if it's that grey site with all the pull-down menus, can you please tell me which one to look at cause I get really confused on there.
25. IKE
3:52 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
The latest NAM model has blobby jr. hitting the Yucatan and possibly emerging into the gulf..a northward motion after hitting them. Looks like a strong high is going to build across Florida. I can't see this one going into the western gulf/hitting there. It's October on Saturday...something may force it northward. This looks like an Opal scenario. Not saying it will be that strong,but this is the time of year Opal developed.

The new GFS is running.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
24. Pensacola21
3:42 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
It's too early to tell..
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
23. Pensacola21
3:42 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
Alot of the models have it hitting Mexico..
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
22. Buhdog
3:38 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
Hate-

Sanibel got busted up pretty good....remember the road onto the island that had trees acting like a canopy (always cool to drive under anywhere you are)...well it is gone.....mostly tree damage/window damage...The island I believe saved my ass from destrucution...Charley was heading right for cape coral and bounced off Sanibel....went up 15 miles followed the peace river instead of the Calusa River...Have you noticed how the past couple of years some of the bigger storms seem to "eye" the warm open water...Charley bounced right around cuba and found the smallest point to cross...Katrina found the shortest path...so did Rita ..right through the staights.....both went into Lakes as well.......Jeane Went right to Lake Okechobee....wild stuff....also as for the gators on sanibel....they will always be around...(millions of years) my suggestion....dont swim in canals or retention ponds!
Member Since: July 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 960
21. Pensacola21
3:38 PM GMT on September 27, 2005
Ya'll sure don't need it Putin
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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