Asia records its hottest temperature in history; Category 4 Phet threatens Oman

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:47 PM GMT on June 02, 2010

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A hellish heat wave hit Pakistan last week, sending the mercury to an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at the town of MohenjuDaro on Wednesday May 26, reported the Pakistani Meteorological Department. While this temperature reading must be reviewed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for authenticity, not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia. This information comes to me courtesy of Chris Burt, the author of Extreme Weather, who is probably the world's foremost expert on extreme weather records. In a collaborative effort with weather record researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford, Mr. Burt has painstakingly researched the extreme weather records for every country on Earth. They list the previous reliable record high for Asia as the 52.7°C (127°F) temperature measured on June 12, 1919, in the Sindh province of Pakistan. Temperatures exceed 120°F in this region of Pakistan nearly every year, in the late May/early June time frame before the monsoon arrives. Last week's heat wave killed at least 18 Pakistanis, and temperatures in excess of 50°C (122°F) were recorded at nine Pakistani cities on May 26, including 53°C (127.4°F) at Sibi.

All-time hottest temperature for Southeast Asia this month
Record heat also hit Southeast Asia in May. According to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Mr. Burt, the 47°C (116.6°F) measured on May 12 this year is the hottest temperature measured in Southeast Asia in recorded history.

Bogus extreme temperature records
I'm pleased to say that Chris Burt will be joining wunderground.com as a featured blogger later this year to discuss his work. He's working on a great new website that features weather records for each country of the world, complete with footnotes on disputed records. For example, many record books list Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature. Mr. Burt comments: "54°C (129.2°F) has widely been quoted as the highest temperature ever recorded in Israel (and Asia) but there exist serious issues with this record. The temperature was recorded on a thermograph at Tirat Zvi on 21 June 1942. Examination of a copy of this trace (see Bio-Climatic Atlas of Israel by Dr. D. Ashbel, Central Press, Jerusalem, 1950, p.125, Figure 1) actually shows a maximum temperature of 53°C (127.4°F). No explanation is known for this 1°C discrepancy. In comparison with surrounding stations, it is likely that the actual temperature recorded at Tirat Zvi on this data was probably no higher than 52°C (125.6°F), which would be a record high temperature for Israel. Temperatures have reached or exceeded 50°C (122°F) in Israel only during this one episode in 1942.


Figure 1. Temperature trace from Bio-Climatic Atlas of Israel by Dr. D. Ashbel, Central Press, Jerusalem, 1950, p.125 for Tirat Zvi, Israel, the week of June 21, 1942.


Figure 2. Zoom of temperature trace from Bio-Climatic Atlas of Israel by Dr. D. Ashbel, Central Press, Jerusalem, 1950, p.125, for Tirat Zvi, Israel, the week of June 21, 1942. The temperature clearly only reached 53°C, if one reads the graph properly. Thus the 54°C temperature labeled on the graph is not correct.

Mr. Burt comments in his Extreme Weather book that every temperature record for the planet in excess of 129°F can be disputed. All of these records, except for the 134°F recorded at Greenland Ranch in Death Valley, California, were made by French colonial era instruments which were found to be irregular as far as the exposure of the screens used to house the temperature instruments. In some cases, the temperature instrument was housed closer to the ground than it should have been. Mr. Burt will have an in-depth analysis of the evidence later this summer when he begins blogging for us.


Figure 3. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Wednesday, June 2, 2010.

Tropical Cyclone Phet the 2nd strongest Arabian Sea storm on record
The record heat over southern Asia in May has helped heat up the Arabian Sea to 2°C above normal. The exceptionally warm SSTs have helped fuel a rare major hurricane in the Arabian Sea today, as Tropical Cyclone Phet underwent an impressive bout of rapid intensification this morning to become a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Phet is a Thai word pronounced as Pet, meaning "Diamond". Intense hurricanes are rare in the Arabian Sea, due to the basin's small size, the interference of the summer monsoon, and the frequent presence of dry air and dust from the Arabian Peninsula. Phet is now the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, behind Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman. Third place is held by the 2001 India Cyclone 01A and Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ARB 01 (02A), which were Category 3 storms with 125 mph winds.

Phet is over some of the warmest ocean waters on the planet, 30 - 31°C (86 - 88°F), and warm waters in excess of 26.5°C (80°F) extend to a depth of at least 50 meters (165 feet), resulting in a Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential high enough to allow Phet to attain Category 5 status. Phet is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is forecasting Phet to become a Category 5 storm later today. The storm is moving slowly north-northwest towards Oman, and could ingest dry air from the Arabian Peninsula on Thursday, resulting in weakening. It now appears likely that Phet will make landfall in Oman before recurving to the northeast and hitting Pakistan. The region of Oman likely to get hit is sparsely populated, so wind and storm surge damage will not be the main concerns. Phet will spread heavy rains over the heavily populated northern regions of Oman, which will likely cause extreme flooding. Phet has the potential to be worse for Oman than Tropical Cyclone Gonu, which did $4.2 billion in damage and killed 50 people in June 2007.

Impact on Pakistan
Phet is on track to make landfall in Pakistan or Iran after hitting Oman. Phet will be much weakened by passage over Oman, and may only be a tropical storm after crossing the Gulf of Oman and arriving at the Iran/Pakistan coast. Still, Phet's rains could easily cause destructive floods in Iran and Pakistan.

The strongest tropical cyclone on record to hit Pakistan was Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ARB 01 (02A), which hit near Karachi on May 20, 1999, as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. According to Wikipedia, 02A killed 700 people did $6 million in damage (1999 USD). I've also found references to a December 15, 1965 cyclone that killed 10,000 near Karachi, Pakistan.

Oil spill update
Moderate onshore winds of 10 - 20 knots out of the southeast to southwest are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over most of the next week, resulting increased threats of oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These persistent southwesterly winds will likely bring oil as far east as Fort Walton Beach, Florida, by Monday.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll be back Thursday with more on Phet and an analysis of the new Colorado State University hurricane forecast issued by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray issued today.

Jeff Masters

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1434. gator23
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Oh boy i was not about to copy what i am saying OH BOY about!!!!! OH BOY!
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Quoting Ossqss:
Wow, I just paid my single digit renewal fee for this site. Yup, been here a longer time than most realize.

Doc, should this blog be one for those who pay to be here?

Just sayin, things would certainly get down to business in a much cleaner way if that was the case.

Something to think about?


Maybe the current members can stay here free. Force people signing up to get a $$$ membership if you want to use the Doc's blog. Keep the rest of the blogs free.
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1431. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127541
1430. beell


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0782
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1009 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 249...

VALID 030309Z - 030415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 249
CONTINUES.

DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS AS TWO
FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS
...1/ TOWARD THE SSE AT 40 KT AND 2/ TOWARD
THE E AT 40 KT AFFECT S TX EWD TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TX COAST.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 30-45 KT WILL MAINTAIN STORM ORGANIZATION...
WHILE A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXTENDING FROM S TX INTO THE WRN GULF
OF MEXICO SUPPORTS THIS ACTIVITY POSING A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO
THE COAST. CURRENT REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST BOTH LINES OF
STORMS SHOULD REACH THE SRN HALF OF THE TX GULF COAST AROUND 05Z.
GIVEN THE EWD PROPAGATION OF THE SRN COMPLEX...THE SRN TIER OF TX
COUNTIES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SHOULD NOT HAVE TO BE ADDED
TO WW 249.

ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND N OF THE NWRN EXTENT OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CENTRAL-SOUTH CENTRAL TX STORM COMPLEX. REGIONAL RADARS HAVE
INDICATED A FEW STRONGER STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS WEAK WAA
REGIME FROM EDWARDS COUNTY TO FRIO COUNTY TX. AIR MASS ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR REMAINS VERY UNSTABLE AND THUS SUPPORTIVE FOR A SEVERE
STORMS.

..PETERS.. 06/03/2010


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Quoting Katrina2NOLA2010:
1410:

All others go to hell.

"He who believeth not is condemned already." - Jesus.


Thank God that there won't be any Muslims or Buddhists or Zeus worshippers in heaven. 'Cause heaven is an absolute monarchy ruled by the "King of Kings and Lord of Lords", and "He ruled them with a rod of iron..."

Gonna be a great place to be if you're a Christian, not so great if you're anything else, 'cause your next stop is the lake of fire with your buddy the devil.

Jesus saves.

Repent sinners, especially you murdering hate mongering women oppressing muslims.


Say's the person I'm going to hell and be cast into pain and suffering (even though I'm already dead) for all eternity. Brilliant. ;)

Gone in 5...4...3...2...1...
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1428. gator23
.


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Quoting Ossqss:
Wow, I just paid my single digit renewal fee for this site. Yup, been here a longer time than most realize.

Doc, should this blog be one for those who pay to be here?

Just sayin, things would certainly get down to business in a much cleaner way if that was the case.

Something to think about?


Less Traffic less Ad Dollars......but, he could make it visible to everyone but, could allow for those that pay be the ones that play only.
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Quoting Ossqss:
Wow, I just paid my single digit renewal fee for this site. Yup, been here a longer time than most realize.

Doc, should this blog be one for those who pay to be here?

Just sayin, things would certainly get down to business in a much cleaner way if that was the case.

Something to think about?


Well I honestly wouldn't like to pay to use this, but I would if I had too.
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Quoting MrstormX:
Ahh thanks, thats what I heard they are really up and coming. May I ask where you chose?


Millersville University, I will be attending my freshman year there starting this fall. I even got to visit Oklahoma University in Norman,OK and got accepted there but I declined beacuse I wanted a more undergrad focused program.
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1424. Ossqss
Like I said !
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
1422. Ossqss
Wow, I just paid my single digit renewal fee for this site. Yup, been here a longer time than most realize.

Doc, should this blog be one for those who pay to be here?

Just sayin, things would certainly get down to business in a much cleaner way if that was the case.

Something to think about?
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
Ahh thanks, thats what I heard they are really up and coming. May I ask where you chose?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Wait, so is this guy some kind of notorious troll or something?


Not sure its the same guy but someone was posting identical comments yesterday. Certainly wouldn't surprise me if it was the same person.
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Quoting MrstormX:
Im currently shopping for met schools, I personally would like to go to Purdue but Valpo is within commuting distance of my house. Can anybody tell me if this program looks acceptable.


As someone who just shoped around for my MET undergad college, Valparaso has a VERY good program, new and upcoming also.
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Quoting xcool:







Isn't 200mb a little high to look at Shear......if we get something up there.....WE ARE IN BIG TIME TROUBLE.......LOL
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Quoting WPBHurricane05:


He was even able to stick a political statement into that one, too. Pretty sure he was around yesterday but under a different name.

People love WU and Dr. Masters so much....always circumventing bans.


Wait, so is this guy some kind of notorious troll or something?
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Quoting 850Realtor:


Thanks :)


They don't even show any real convection, either:

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Quoting KoritheMan:


Because only Christians have the right to freely express and practice their religion, right?


He was even able to stick a political statement into that one, too. Pretty sure he was around yesterday but under a different name.

People love WU and Dr. Masters so much....always circumventing bans.
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1413. scott39
All of E texas has a massive storm over it, and its moving E!
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1412. xcool





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Quoting KoritheMan:


SPC doesn't foresee an organized severe weather event for that area.


Thanks :)
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Quoting Katrina2NOLA2010:
1359:

We should name exoplanets after the person who discovers them, instead of pagan gods.

Plus there's other things you can name an object too. Like "Charity" or "Faith" or "Impeach Obama", "cat", "dog", "gem", "clair", "amy", etc, etc.

Why don't any of these bozos name something after their wife or their mom?


But if I ever found an exoplanet, I'd name it "JESUS IS LORD".


So sick of paganism.


Because only Christians have the right to freely express and practice their religion, right?
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Im currently shopping for met schools, I personally would like to go to Purdue but Valpo is within commuting distance of my house. Can anybody tell me if this program looks acceptable.
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AOI JUST NW OF PUERTO RICO

We need to watch the tail in the trough into the Bahamas. This was also what caused 91L
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good evening everyone. crazy weather here in northern california, june 2 and it looks like rain:

Tonight: Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. Northwest wind between 3 and 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 72. North northwest wind between 5 and 9 mph.

Thursday Night: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 55. West wind between 5 and 8 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

i swear it feels as though i'm in the south, it was 80 degrees today
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Good Evening Wundermates, pretty quiet night eh?
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Weird...the oil spill cam on CNN just went black.
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Quoting Ossqss:
Interesting stuff on noctilucent clouds (NLCs) after a century class solar minimum. Thought I would share prior to departure :)

BTW, many links in the article text!


http://spaceweather.com/


Here is the site i use all the time......

http://www.solarcycle24.com/
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I should probably introduce myself...

I've been lurking since late, late '05 (wilma) and have ben hooked ever since.

I am a very science oriented person, with an extreme curiosity for weather, especially hurricanes, tornadoes, blizzards, anything huge and impacting on us as people.

Stuff we can't control, but can "predict".

My #'s for this season:
17-20 named storms
13-9 hurricanes
5-8 majors

this from someone who is (finally) coming out of the perverbial WU closet... be kind :)

oh, and my name is Andrew (2nd reason not to post)

I am more than willing to learn!! Please keep teaching me, EVERYBODY!
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Quoting 850Realtor:
Someone mentioned last night about the rainy weather that will be around the Florida Panhandle tomorrow. Can someone tell me what we should be expecting? Just rain...severe weather?


SPC doesn't foresee an organized severe weather event for that area.
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1400. Ossqss
Interesting stuff on noctilucent clouds (NLCs) after a century class solar minimum. Thought I would share prior to departure :)

BTW, many links in the article text!


http://spaceweather.com/
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
1399. SLU
Quoting ryang:
SLU, how was the weather there Monday morning? I heard there was some heavy thunderstorms....



Yeh we got some very heavy showers and thunderstorms which started shortly after midnight on June 1st. What a fitting way to start the 2010 season. The bad weather woke me put of bed at least twice.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


i would not say safe we get them here as well mostly rain events flooding the left overs as you would say

by the way ontario is not my place of birth was borned and raised in newfoundland and well when it comes to storms thats the graveyard of the atlantic


That's the graveyard for tropical entities (and of course, subtropical as well, since the cold waters prevent them from ever attaining a deep warm core), but it can still generate intense extratropical cyclones due to frequent baroclinic support.
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1396. SLU
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


i would not say safe we get them here as well mostly rain events flooding the left overs as you would say

by the way ontario is not my place of birth was borned and raised in newfoundland and well when it comes to storms thats the graveyard of the atlantic


Sometimes the cost of the damage in the "graveyard" can rival that of the landfalling countries.


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Someone mentioned last night about the rainy weather that will be around the Florida Panhandle tomorrow. Can someone tell me what we should be expecting? Just rain...severe weather?
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I was away at college during Isabel, and Ernesto went right through us as a TS, and mom was in Ocean City during Agnes... but never have I ever come to anything quite like some people on here have gone through.

Baltimore has been very lucky. We are tucked away from tornadoes, hurricanes, and earthquakes. This last winter did tear us a new one, I suppose...
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1393. SLU
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Not quite...Hazel 1954 did some damage here. Link

Except I wasn't born then. But we do get the remnants of hurricanes almost every year.


Well that's true. I've always heard about the flooding etc. the decaying systems cause well after they make landfall
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Quoting xcool:
Weather456:

Possible development ???


Well not expected but not impossible. I'll see how everything looks in the am.
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Have a good night all.....
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
So your saying w456 that the chances of having a june storm are going to get higher in the coming weeks.That is if those waves can hold togather.


the chances a tropical storm this month are already slightly above mean.
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Quoting pottery:

Wha???


I'm asking the same question!
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
1388. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Baltimorebirds:
Well nighty night.Got to get some rest by-bye.
see you tomorrow who ever you will be
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Makoto1:


That's a scary thought... Really scary. And to think... It's only June 2.

I agree CA looks like we were already in late July! Scary for sure.
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1385. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting SLU:


Safe from all the hurricanes!


i would not say safe we get them here as well mostly rain events flooding the left overs as you would say

by the way ontario is not my place of birth was borned and raised in newfoundland and well when it comes to storms thats the graveyard of the atlantic
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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