Asia records its hottest temperature in history; Category 4 Phet threatens Oman

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:47 PM GMT on June 02, 2010

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A hellish heat wave hit Pakistan last week, sending the mercury to an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at the town of MohenjuDaro on Wednesday May 26, reported the Pakistani Meteorological Department. While this temperature reading must be reviewed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for authenticity, not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia. This information comes to me courtesy of Chris Burt, the author of Extreme Weather, who is probably the world's foremost expert on extreme weather records. In a collaborative effort with weather record researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford, Mr. Burt has painstakingly researched the extreme weather records for every country on Earth. They list the previous reliable record high for Asia as the 52.7°C (127°F) temperature measured on June 12, 1919, in the Sindh province of Pakistan. Temperatures exceed 120°F in this region of Pakistan nearly every year, in the late May/early June time frame before the monsoon arrives. Last week's heat wave killed at least 18 Pakistanis, and temperatures in excess of 50°C (122°F) were recorded at nine Pakistani cities on May 26, including 53°C (127.4°F) at Sibi.

All-time hottest temperature for Southeast Asia this month
Record heat also hit Southeast Asia in May. According to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Mr. Burt, the 47°C (116.6°F) measured on May 12 this year is the hottest temperature measured in Southeast Asia in recorded history.

Bogus extreme temperature records
I'm pleased to say that Chris Burt will be joining wunderground.com as a featured blogger later this year to discuss his work. He's working on a great new website that features weather records for each country of the world, complete with footnotes on disputed records. For example, many record books list Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature. Mr. Burt comments: "54°C (129.2°F) has widely been quoted as the highest temperature ever recorded in Israel (and Asia) but there exist serious issues with this record. The temperature was recorded on a thermograph at Tirat Zvi on 21 June 1942. Examination of a copy of this trace (see Bio-Climatic Atlas of Israel by Dr. D. Ashbel, Central Press, Jerusalem, 1950, p.125, Figure 1) actually shows a maximum temperature of 53°C (127.4°F). No explanation is known for this 1°C discrepancy. In comparison with surrounding stations, it is likely that the actual temperature recorded at Tirat Zvi on this data was probably no higher than 52°C (125.6°F), which would be a record high temperature for Israel. Temperatures have reached or exceeded 50°C (122°F) in Israel only during this one episode in 1942.


Figure 1. Temperature trace from Bio-Climatic Atlas of Israel by Dr. D. Ashbel, Central Press, Jerusalem, 1950, p.125 for Tirat Zvi, Israel, the week of June 21, 1942.


Figure 2. Zoom of temperature trace from Bio-Climatic Atlas of Israel by Dr. D. Ashbel, Central Press, Jerusalem, 1950, p.125, for Tirat Zvi, Israel, the week of June 21, 1942. The temperature clearly only reached 53°C, if one reads the graph properly. Thus the 54°C temperature labeled on the graph is not correct.

Mr. Burt comments in his Extreme Weather book that every temperature record for the planet in excess of 129°F can be disputed. All of these records, except for the 134°F recorded at Greenland Ranch in Death Valley, California, were made by French colonial era instruments which were found to be irregular as far as the exposure of the screens used to house the temperature instruments. In some cases, the temperature instrument was housed closer to the ground than it should have been. Mr. Burt will have an in-depth analysis of the evidence later this summer when he begins blogging for us.


Figure 3. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Wednesday, June 2, 2010.

Tropical Cyclone Phet the 2nd strongest Arabian Sea storm on record
The record heat over southern Asia in May has helped heat up the Arabian Sea to 2°C above normal. The exceptionally warm SSTs have helped fuel a rare major hurricane in the Arabian Sea today, as Tropical Cyclone Phet underwent an impressive bout of rapid intensification this morning to become a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Phet is a Thai word pronounced as Pet, meaning "Diamond". Intense hurricanes are rare in the Arabian Sea, due to the basin's small size, the interference of the summer monsoon, and the frequent presence of dry air and dust from the Arabian Peninsula. Phet is now the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, behind Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman. Third place is held by the 2001 India Cyclone 01A and Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ARB 01 (02A), which were Category 3 storms with 125 mph winds.

Phet is over some of the warmest ocean waters on the planet, 30 - 31°C (86 - 88°F), and warm waters in excess of 26.5°C (80°F) extend to a depth of at least 50 meters (165 feet), resulting in a Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential high enough to allow Phet to attain Category 5 status. Phet is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is forecasting Phet to become a Category 5 storm later today. The storm is moving slowly north-northwest towards Oman, and could ingest dry air from the Arabian Peninsula on Thursday, resulting in weakening. It now appears likely that Phet will make landfall in Oman before recurving to the northeast and hitting Pakistan. The region of Oman likely to get hit is sparsely populated, so wind and storm surge damage will not be the main concerns. Phet will spread heavy rains over the heavily populated northern regions of Oman, which will likely cause extreme flooding. Phet has the potential to be worse for Oman than Tropical Cyclone Gonu, which did $4.2 billion in damage and killed 50 people in June 2007.

Impact on Pakistan
Phet is on track to make landfall in Pakistan or Iran after hitting Oman. Phet will be much weakened by passage over Oman, and may only be a tropical storm after crossing the Gulf of Oman and arriving at the Iran/Pakistan coast. Still, Phet's rains could easily cause destructive floods in Iran and Pakistan.

The strongest tropical cyclone on record to hit Pakistan was Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ARB 01 (02A), which hit near Karachi on May 20, 1999, as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. According to Wikipedia, 02A killed 700 people did $6 million in damage (1999 USD). I've also found references to a December 15, 1965 cyclone that killed 10,000 near Karachi, Pakistan.

Oil spill update
Moderate onshore winds of 10 - 20 knots out of the southeast to southwest are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over most of the next week, resulting increased threats of oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These persistent southwesterly winds will likely bring oil as far east as Fort Walton Beach, Florida, by Monday.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll be back Thursday with more on Phet and an analysis of the new Colorado State University hurricane forecast issued by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray issued today.

Jeff Masters

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1533. centex
Quoting atmoaggie:

Classic UT fan/student/grad.

The word you are looking for is "sense". As typing sentences that "make sense".

Now, the point was that the very warm SST anomaly near the end of April isn't nearly as much of a warm anomaly anymore, and the change was interestingly quick.

If that is incoherent to you, maybe there is block or clogged filter somewhere...
It's very simple if you believe in science. All good sources are on my side, your on side of quack science. Do they teach that at A&M? I here FOX teaches it and they are peer reviewed. Ha Ha
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What happens when all this rain moves out into the Gulf for a few days? :-(

Quoting Patrap:
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Quoting centex:
Only if cooled below normal would that make since. Science and this data shows warm. Why are you the main cool guy, is it a course at A&M? I only crap on your song because I%u2019m all too tired of your crap, give it up to real science and I will stop bugging you. This is prime example of your quack science. Block this and you%u2019re blocking reason.

Classic UT fan/student/grad.

The word you are looking for is "sense". As typing sentences that "make sense".

Now, the point was that the very warm SST anomaly near the end of April isn't nearly as much of a warm anomaly anymore, and the change was interestingly quick.

If that is incoherent to you, maybe there is block or clogged filter somewhere...
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1529. xcool
atmoaggie LMAO...
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Aww, dang, the inbox produced something to share...



Hmmm, not nearly as good as the one in my blog, though
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1527. xcool
IF HAVE 18Z ECMWF I WAS GOING TRY registration FOR...
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Its possible. I wish it was run more frequently though with more products available to the public. Dont think that'll happen anytime soon though.


Anyways, goodnight everyone.


Good Night Mike.
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Quoting SevereHurricane:


Wouldn't you think the fact that it doesn't run 6z and 18z runs just might make it more accurate?


Its possible. I wish it was run more frequently though with more products available to the public. Dont think that'll happen anytime soon though.


Anyways, goodnight everyone.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Obviously I'm talking to you, else I wouldn't have quoted you. >_>

Thanks, though. I was under the impression that all models had publicly available 18z runs. I guess not, though.

Those Europeans are a little funny about whom's tax dollars are used for their products. Lots of weather data from Europe are restricted. Somewhat surprised we can get the 0 and 12 Z ECMWF, honestly. Can you imagine if we shared nothing outside our borders?

I don't know first hand, but I would expect most anyone on the planet can access everything NOAA produces.

Really leaving now. L8R.
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1522. xcool





NEWWWW
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Sorry, the quote button has been acting up today so I didnt know if you meant to quote me.

To my knowledge, the ECMWF only has the 00z and 12z runs distributed to the public. Atmo or NRT may know more about this.

I wouldnt want 6z and 18z data anyway...


Wouldn't you think the fact that it doesn't run 6z and 18z runs just might make it more accurate?
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1520. xcool
atmoaggie .GUESS ONE DAY HAVE 18Z ECMWF
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Quoting xcool:
I'M READ IT ALL WRONG HAHA YEAH IAM DUCK .




The 18 ECMWF Member States listed in the ECMWF Overview are allocated a proportion of ECMWF's supercomputing resources and have access to its data archives

I was wondering. I don't know of any 18 Z ECMWF sources.

Pretty sure that if it were available, one of these links would have it: http://supercellweather-models-ecmwf.blogspot.com/
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Obviously I'm talking to you, else I wouldn't have quoted you. >_>

Thanks, though. I was under the impression that all models had publicly available 18z runs. I guess not, though.


Sorry, the quote button has been acting up today so I didnt know if you meant to quote me.

To my knowledge, the ECMWF only has the 00z and 12z runs distributed to the public. Atmo or NRT may know more about this.

I wouldnt want 6z and 18z data anyway...
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1517. xcool
I'M READ IT ALL WRONG HAHA YEAH IAM DUCK .




The 18 ECMWF Member States listed in the ECMWF Overview are allocated a proportion of ECMWF's supercomputing resources and have access to its data archives
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1516. xcool
ON FREESITE . register to use ECMWF
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Quoting KoritheMan:


The Gulf and Caribbean still look dangerously warm, however.

And generally warming, still, as compared to climatology. The winds in the GoM have been nonexistent for more than a month, except for a day or 2.

good and bad...
Good thing for trying to keep oil out of marshes. Bad thing for available heat once a TC comes through.

G'nite.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:

If your talking to me...

I've never heard of one.


Obviously I'm talking to you, else I wouldn't have quoted you. >_>

Thanks, though. I was under the impression that all models had publicly available 18z runs. I guess not, though.
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1513. xcool
NHC USED CURR SHEAR MAP ..
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Do you mean permanently, or just tonight?

If your talking to me...

I've never heard of one.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Neat graphic showing how much the Atlantic cooled, relative to climatology (right column), in one month.



Thank you, trades! (Pass it on to the Bermuda high)


The Gulf and Caribbean still look dangerously warm, however.
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Quoting xcool:
stormchaser2007 .cost to much.meann alot..


Where'd you see it?
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Pretty sure there isnt an 18z ECMWF run available to the public.


Do you mean permanently, or just tonight?
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1469. Too bad i'm Jewish
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1507. xcool
stormchaser2007 .cost to much.meann alot..
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Shear is really starting to drop......GET READY!
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Neat graphic showing how much the Atlantic cooled, relative to climatology (right column), in one month.



Thank you, trades! (Pass it on to the Bermuda high)
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1503. Ossqss
Just so ya know, that is not Tampa's number,,, It is a song from many moons ago. :P L8R

Be well all !

Don't forget to check you picks and summary of such on my blog... You did ask for it and nearly 60 of you participated.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
Quoting RitaEvac:
I haven't seen a wall of rain like this over TX in a loooong time. Even rare to have this during June.



Tim Robins thinks so.
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Quoting xcool:
The 18 ECMWF


wow dnot know


Pretty sure there isnt an 18z ECMWF run available to the public.
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Ed jump on the Web.......have you seen the Instant Messanger yet
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1499. Levi32
Quoting atmoaggie:

Yep. Little chance for any East Atl development.

And, outside of the basin-wide shear maps showing low shear, this is showing a band of prohibitive shear curving across the MDR (blue). How long it will persist? Prolly for a week, possibly longer.



Funny how it shows up on CIMSS but not SSD:





That's why I always use CIMSS shear maps, because they are more accurate, since they average several levels of the atmosphere before calculating the shear, whereas SSD only takes 850mb and 200mb levels, which more often than not appears to cause discrepancies.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
1498. xcool
The 18 ECMWF


wow dnot know
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Quoting Ossqss:


Tampa, um, I have the same for you :)

LoL........Is it 867-5309

Some stuff just sticks in the head. Prolly not heard that for some time :)


That is truly messed up......ROFLMAO
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I haven't seen a wall of rain like this over TX in a loooong time. Even rare to have this during June.

Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Well define Atlantic Tripole; also I am astounded by how warm the Gulf has gotten.
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Quoting Levi32:


Well I'm not on a computer that has my gwaphic toys on it so I'll have to disappoint you there lol.

As for the east Atlantic wave, it is behaving as I expected, with most of the convection becoming thoroughly part of the ITCZ, and I don't expect anything significant development-wise with this wave outside of the Caribbean. The next couple waves may emerge quite strong, perhaps surpassing the latest wave. They will also be coming off a bit farther north, so the potential down the road for them to get into the Caribbean and cause mischief is higher. Odds are that we will see nothing particularly threatening from any of these waves yet out in the middle of the Atlantic, but down the road they could cause trouble in the Caribbean.

Yep. Little chance for any East Atl development.

And, outside of the basin-wide shear maps showing low shear, this is showing a band of prohibitive shear curving across the MDR (blue). How long it will persist? Prolly for a week, possibly longer.



Get a decent wave over towards the middle and west end of the MDR or western Caribb...could happen.
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1493. Skyepony (Mod)
94W looks weaker than earlier. Noticed it yesterday looking destructive stepping off South China. Turns out it's killed over 30, rained 12+ inches in less than a day, $102 million+ in damages, 4,226 houses and 117,280 hectares of crops destroyed..
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Quoting Levi32:


Well I'm not on a computer that has my gwaphic toys on it so I'll have to disappoint you there lol.

As for the east Atlantic wave, it is behaving as I expected, with most of the convection becoming thoroughly part of the ITCZ, and I don't expect anything with this wave outside of the Caribbean. The next couple waves may emerge quite strong, perhaps surpassing the latest wave. They will also be coming off a bit farther north, so the potential down the road for them to get into the Caribbean and cause mischief is higher. Odds are that we will see nothing particularly threatening from any of these waves yet out in the middle of the Atlantic, but down the road they could cause trouble in the Caribbean.


Ok no problem about no graphics. Let's see what will occur as the train of waves increase their potential slowly as time goes on and of course,for one who lives in the Caribbean will be watching.
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1491. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Katrina2NOLA2010 you shall be replaced with empty space just like whats in your head
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Like to see how this MCS does when it pushes a lot of these storms and convection into the gulf tomm morning
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9628
1489. xcool
Ossqss oh my
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1487. Ossqss
Quoting TampaSpin:


Don't make me post your Cell# which i do have ......LOL!!!..ROFLMAO J/K


Tampa, um, I have the same for you :)

LoL........Is it 867-5309

Some stuff just sticks in the head. Prolly not heard that for some time :)
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
Quoting MrstormX:


You guys are offering me a very interesting perspective, I might want to look for programs that give a more hands on approach rather than straight class/bookwork.


Meteorology is still an observation and applied based science, sure the equation for calculating the buoyancy for a particle is important but if you can't tell what a rear flank downdraft looks like in the field, how are you going to know what it looks like on radar and what it means. Then conveying your skill of knowing what that means and telling people "a tornado may be coming!"
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Goodnight guys, don't let the trolls bite

And thanks for the help
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1484. Levi32
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Levi,what is the latest that you are seeing on the wave off Africa? Also,talk about the ones that are inside the continent as I like how you analize with the graphics.


Well I'm not on a computer that has my gwaphic toys on it so I'll have to disappoint you there lol.

As for the east Atlantic wave, it is behaving as I expected, with most of the convection becoming thoroughly part of the ITCZ, and I don't expect anything significant development-wise with this wave outside of the Caribbean. The next couple waves may emerge quite strong, perhaps surpassing the latest wave. They will also be coming off a bit farther north, so the potential down the road for them to get into the Caribbean and cause mischief is higher. Odds are that we will see nothing particularly threatening from any of these waves yet out in the middle of the Atlantic, but down the road they could cause trouble in the Caribbean.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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