Asia records its hottest temperature in history; Category 4 Phet threatens Oman

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:47 PM GMT on June 02, 2010

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A hellish heat wave hit Pakistan last week, sending the mercury to an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at the town of MohenjuDaro on Wednesday May 26, reported the Pakistani Meteorological Department. While this temperature reading must be reviewed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for authenticity, not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia. This information comes to me courtesy of Chris Burt, the author of Extreme Weather, who is probably the world's foremost expert on extreme weather records. In a collaborative effort with weather record researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford, Mr. Burt has painstakingly researched the extreme weather records for every country on Earth. They list the previous reliable record high for Asia as the 52.7°C (127°F) temperature measured on June 12, 1919, in the Sindh province of Pakistan. Temperatures exceed 120°F in this region of Pakistan nearly every year, in the late May/early June time frame before the monsoon arrives. Last week's heat wave killed at least 18 Pakistanis, and temperatures in excess of 50°C (122°F) were recorded at nine Pakistani cities on May 26, including 53°C (127.4°F) at Sibi.

All-time hottest temperature for Southeast Asia this month
Record heat also hit Southeast Asia in May. According to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Mr. Burt, the 47°C (116.6°F) measured on May 12 this year is the hottest temperature measured in Southeast Asia in recorded history.

Bogus extreme temperature records
I'm pleased to say that Chris Burt will be joining wunderground.com as a featured blogger later this year to discuss his work. He's working on a great new website that features weather records for each country of the world, complete with footnotes on disputed records. For example, many record books list Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature. Mr. Burt comments: "54°C (129.2°F) has widely been quoted as the highest temperature ever recorded in Israel (and Asia) but there exist serious issues with this record. The temperature was recorded on a thermograph at Tirat Zvi on 21 June 1942. Examination of a copy of this trace (see Bio-Climatic Atlas of Israel by Dr. D. Ashbel, Central Press, Jerusalem, 1950, p.125, Figure 1) actually shows a maximum temperature of 53°C (127.4°F). No explanation is known for this 1°C discrepancy. In comparison with surrounding stations, it is likely that the actual temperature recorded at Tirat Zvi on this data was probably no higher than 52°C (125.6°F), which would be a record high temperature for Israel. Temperatures have reached or exceeded 50°C (122°F) in Israel only during this one episode in 1942.


Figure 1. Temperature trace from Bio-Climatic Atlas of Israel by Dr. D. Ashbel, Central Press, Jerusalem, 1950, p.125 for Tirat Zvi, Israel, the week of June 21, 1942.


Figure 2. Zoom of temperature trace from Bio-Climatic Atlas of Israel by Dr. D. Ashbel, Central Press, Jerusalem, 1950, p.125, for Tirat Zvi, Israel, the week of June 21, 1942. The temperature clearly only reached 53°C, if one reads the graph properly. Thus the 54°C temperature labeled on the graph is not correct.

Mr. Burt comments in his Extreme Weather book that every temperature record for the planet in excess of 129°F can be disputed. All of these records, except for the 134°F recorded at Greenland Ranch in Death Valley, California, were made by French colonial era instruments which were found to be irregular as far as the exposure of the screens used to house the temperature instruments. In some cases, the temperature instrument was housed closer to the ground than it should have been. Mr. Burt will have an in-depth analysis of the evidence later this summer when he begins blogging for us.


Figure 3. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Wednesday, June 2, 2010.

Tropical Cyclone Phet the 2nd strongest Arabian Sea storm on record
The record heat over southern Asia in May has helped heat up the Arabian Sea to 2°C above normal. The exceptionally warm SSTs have helped fuel a rare major hurricane in the Arabian Sea today, as Tropical Cyclone Phet underwent an impressive bout of rapid intensification this morning to become a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Phet is a Thai word pronounced as Pet, meaning "Diamond". Intense hurricanes are rare in the Arabian Sea, due to the basin's small size, the interference of the summer monsoon, and the frequent presence of dry air and dust from the Arabian Peninsula. Phet is now the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, behind Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman. Third place is held by the 2001 India Cyclone 01A and Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ARB 01 (02A), which were Category 3 storms with 125 mph winds.

Phet is over some of the warmest ocean waters on the planet, 30 - 31°C (86 - 88°F), and warm waters in excess of 26.5°C (80°F) extend to a depth of at least 50 meters (165 feet), resulting in a Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential high enough to allow Phet to attain Category 5 status. Phet is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is forecasting Phet to become a Category 5 storm later today. The storm is moving slowly north-northwest towards Oman, and could ingest dry air from the Arabian Peninsula on Thursday, resulting in weakening. It now appears likely that Phet will make landfall in Oman before recurving to the northeast and hitting Pakistan. The region of Oman likely to get hit is sparsely populated, so wind and storm surge damage will not be the main concerns. Phet will spread heavy rains over the heavily populated northern regions of Oman, which will likely cause extreme flooding. Phet has the potential to be worse for Oman than Tropical Cyclone Gonu, which did $4.2 billion in damage and killed 50 people in June 2007.

Impact on Pakistan
Phet is on track to make landfall in Pakistan or Iran after hitting Oman. Phet will be much weakened by passage over Oman, and may only be a tropical storm after crossing the Gulf of Oman and arriving at the Iran/Pakistan coast. Still, Phet's rains could easily cause destructive floods in Iran and Pakistan.

The strongest tropical cyclone on record to hit Pakistan was Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ARB 01 (02A), which hit near Karachi on May 20, 1999, as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. According to Wikipedia, 02A killed 700 people did $6 million in damage (1999 USD). I've also found references to a December 15, 1965 cyclone that killed 10,000 near Karachi, Pakistan.

Oil spill update
Moderate onshore winds of 10 - 20 knots out of the southeast to southwest are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over most of the next week, resulting increased threats of oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These persistent southwesterly winds will likely bring oil as far east as Fort Walton Beach, Florida, by Monday.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll be back Thursday with more on Phet and an analysis of the new Colorado State University hurricane forecast issued by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray issued today.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting fuzzy3456:
hey guys, does anybody know how strong the shear is in the area north of the Dominican? never mind, its about 40 knots, unless it weakens, nothings going form.


As of 06Z:



35-40 kts
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hey guys, does anybody know how strong the shear is in the area north of the Dominican? never mind, its about 40 knots, unless it weakens, nothings going form.
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Quoting cg2916:
Morning, guys!

Let's take a look:



Areas that caught my eye:

1. East of Georgia and South Carolina.

2. North of Puerto Rico

3. Blob in the NW GOM

4. SE of Lesser Antilles



Areas that caught my eye:

1. SW of the picture

2. Wave just off of Africa

Now, I'm not saying any of these will/will not form, I'm just pointing out areas to watch.


BLOBORAMA!
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1629. Makoto1
Morning, looks like just minor things to watch in the tropics.

Outside my house... Well that's another story, another thunderstorm coming in. I knew it felt way too humid for Ohio this morning...
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1628. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Looks to me shearhands is trying to shear off the riser still???

Link


A lot more ROVs to choose from:

Link


I see what you're saying. I was looking at the top-hat w/another ROV.

That is one hell of a job.

Sen. Bill Nelson just on CNN, said he thought this would go on until August. He said he had no faith in BP with what they're attempting now.
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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
333 AM EDT THU JUN 3 2010

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. MAIN DISTURBANCE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN IS A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EAST TEXAS...WHICH TRIGGERED THE SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE VERY SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS KEEPING THE TRI-STATE AREA UNDER A MOIST AND DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE LIFT AS WELL AS GENERATE A WEAK SFC TROUGH/LOW
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A WET COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE REGION.


The Northern Gulf rain event......Not good in terms of the Oil Slick however which will be pushed towards the shores of LA/MS/AL/Fl Panhandle over the next few days....
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scott39 "Do you know how mny storms were named in june of 2005??"

Two. TSArlene almost became a hurricane before a Florida landfall near the Alabama border. The second TropicalStorm spun up near end of the month, and is memorable only for being short and wimpy.
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Quoting IKE:
They're trying to put top-hat on the top of the riser...now.


Looks to me shearhands is trying to shear off the riser still???

Link


A lot more ROVs to choose from:

Link
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Good Morning.......Only current pockets of relatively low sheer in the MDR around ares of interest this morning are around the wave approaching South America, off-the MidAtlantic States and just off-shore of the frontal boundry about the emerge in the NW corner of the Gulf. However, I don't think any of the models have developed these features and the front entering the Gulf is not forecast to stall out in the Gulf, but, keep sweeping towards the East; basically a rain event for the Northern Gulf States.......Climatologically speaking, the first storm of the Atlantic season does not occur until around July 11th.
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1623. SLU




Looks like the warm waters are on the rebound now.

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4889
1622. WxLogic
Good Morning...
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1621. scott39
Quoting cg2916:


Shouldn't be quite that bad.
I hope not, what makes you say that?
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1620. barbamz
http://www.troutbugs.com/rovs.html
Watch Scandi Rov 2. Giant shear is moved in position.
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1619. cg2916
Quoting scott39:
I hope 2010 isnt the same as 2005 in landfalls of Hurricanes, because the Gulf Coast is in for a very long season if it is!


Shouldn't be quite that bad.
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1618. cg2916
Morning, guys!

Let's take a look:



Areas that caught my eye:

1. East of Georgia and South Carolina.

2. North of Puerto Rico

3. Blob in the NW GOM

4. SE of Lesser Antilles



Areas that caught my eye:

1. SW of the picture

2. Wave just off of Africa

Now, I'm not saying any of these will/will not form, I'm just pointing out areas to watch.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1617. scott39
I hope 2010 isnt the same as 2005 in landfalls of Hurricanes, because the Gulf Coast is in for a very long season if it is!
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1616. guygee
Quoting xcool:

...Not surprisingly Dr. Gray's team upped their number of named storms in their June update today. They now say 18 storms will form with 10 becoming hurricanes and 5 of those reaching Cat. 3 or stronger. One of the things I like about these Hurricane "Forecasts" is that we can verify them in 6 months, unlike the Global Warming Alarmist's predictions of 50-100 years out. [...]
So where do you draw the line between our host, Dr. Masters, who believes man-made global warming has a real scientific basis, and your "Global Warming Alarmists"? You should really clarify that, as Dr. Masters has suggested that people read the IPCC reports that do have long-term predictions
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TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA ALONG 83W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES WLY FLOW IN THE E PACIFIC WHICH WILL BEGIN TO PREVENT IT FROM PROPAGATING WWD. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE E PACIFIC. SCATTERED MODERATE /ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 79W-85W.
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1597 IKE "6Z GFS is BP's worst nightmare."

Aw c'mon... a Pacific crosser trashes the eastern Gulf of Mexico? That's jes plain cheatin', that is.
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G'morning.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 48W-51W.
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1612. IKE
2005 season.
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1611. SLU
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N21W TO 3N23W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY. A RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS
NOTED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS (6n 25w to be exact). WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 20W-22W.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4889
1610. scott39
Quoting IKE:


Yup...first storm was June 8th...quiet til the end of June and then it started, big-time.
Thanks
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1609. scott39
Quoting Weather456:


the earliest waves are like 1 week away so we cannot make any accurate speculations....

If you believe the long range GFS, one develops in the SW Caribbean. I do not pay attention to the GFS pass 1 week for operational forecasting.

Do you have the breakdown of each month of the 2005 season of how many storms each month had and where they went? Thanks
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1608. shakaka
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
NOAA forecasted an ACE of 155% - 270% this year in 2005 the total ACE was 248.1%. Not good, if we have 18 storms most of them will likely be very intense, why? Because in 2005 the ACE was 248% and they had 27 storms.


You are making way too many assumptions here.
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1607. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Do you know how mny storms were named in june of 2005?


Yup...first storm was June 8th...quiet til the end of June and then it started, big-time.
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1606. IKE
They're trying to put top-hat on the top of the riser...now.
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1605. scott39
Quoting Weather456:


the earliest waves are like 1 week away so we cannot make any accurate speculations....

If you believe the long range GFS, one develops in the SW Caribbean. I do not pay attention to the GFS pass 1 week for operational forecasting.

Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
Thanks 456, Is it too early to say where these potiential TCs may track after they reach the Carrribean?


the earliest waves are like 1 week away so we cannot make any accurate speculations....

If you believe the long range GFS, one develops in the SW Caribbean. I do not pay attention to the GFS pass 1 week for operational forecasting.

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1603. scott39
Quoting IKE:


I'll still say...there will be a named storm in the GOM by July 1st.

And...if there's going to be 18-23 named storms....then...the season needs to start...this month. Otherwise...18-23 named storms in 5 months? That's 4-5 a month!(July to Dec. 1st).
Do you know how mny storms were named in june of 2005?
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1602. scott39
Quoting IKE:


I'll still say...there will be a named storm in the GOM by July 1st.
Unfourtunately it is inevitable! Our beaches and inland areas our toast this year!
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1601. IKE
I had 2.18 yesterday.
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Storms in Houston over night dropped 1.63 in in my yard in Katy,,,,needed the rain!
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1599. IKE
Quoting scott39:
I hope that doesnt come true!


I'll still say...there will be a named storm in the GOM by July 1st.

And...if there's going to be 18-23 named storms....then...the season needs to start...this month. Otherwise...18-23 named storms in 5 months? That's 4-5 a month!(July to Dec. 1st).
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1598. scott39
Quoting IKE:


Just my personal opinion...I'm tired of seeing storm chasers chasing tornadoes. I've seen it enough. The Weather Channel runs it into the ground in the evenings.


6Z GFS is BP's worst nightmare.
I hope that doesnt come true!
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1597. IKE
Quoting Autistic2:




well said and "nuff" said


Just my personal opinion...I'm tired of seeing storm chasers chasing tornadoes. I've seen it enough. The Weather Channel runs it into the ground in the evenings.


6Z GFS is BP's worst nightmare.
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1596. barbamz
Good morning over there from Germany.
Composition of different ROV-Cams (link from The Oil Drum Blog). Hope the best for the Gulf!
http://www.troutbugs.com/rovs.html
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off to work hopeflly slow weather day in atlantic basin check in latter
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1594. scott39
Quoting scott39:
Thanks 456, Is it too far out to say where these potential TCs will go after they enter the Carribean?
Sorry about double post! It wasnt working at first.
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1593. scott39
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Watching East of the Bahamas; Tropical Waves A'Comin
Thanks 456, Is it too early to say where these potiential TCs may track after they reach the Carrribean?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1592. scott39
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Watching East of the Bahamas; Tropical Waves A'Comin
Thanks 456, Is it too far out to say where these potential TCs will go after they enter the Carribean?
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Quoting KRL:
COMMENTARY . . . .

Growing up 5 decades ago, life and the world seemed so much more stable because everyone just watched one of the 3 major TV networks to get 30 minutes worth of the top news stories which would last us till 6:30pm the following day. Weather reports were quick and brief. Nothing like today where you see storm chasers filming tornados from 50 yds away or horrendous floods and hurricanes in other parts of the world on live streaming cams.

Now we are innundated with real time news and weather information streams from the entire planet and I think that is why everything seems so much more chaotic and frightening at times.
It doesn't stop anymore and we can't catch our breath from it all. It seems like one bad event after another.

I think most all of us born in the 50's truly miss those simpler days . . . .




well said and "nuff" said
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Good Morning

Watching East of the Bahamas; Tropical Waves A'Comin
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Good morning all! I missed Dr. Master's and Hurricane Haven cause I couldn't get it on my iPhone. Is there "an app for that"? Is there a podcast somewhere? Any help would be much appreciated!
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atmoaggie "Neat graphic showing how much the Atlantic cooled, relative to climatology..."
1525 centex "Only if cooled below normal would that make sense. Science and this data shows warm. [vituperation deleted]"

Don't act obtuse jes cuz ya don't like a guy's politics. It's way too petty ifn' ya actually like science.

Yes it is still warm. The point is that in April2010, things were frying compared to Aprils of the past. Heck I was freakin' out in midApril cuz tropical NorthAtlantic and Caribbean temperatures were nearly looking like those in June2005.

So here it is, the beginning of June2010... and it looks pretty much*like the beginning of June2005.

The point is that when comparing the same times of year, instead of frying like April2010 as compared to April2005, June2010 looks about the^same as June2005.
Hence things look relatively cooler now than they did in April.

* Yes the Gulf of Mexico has gotten considerably warmer since the cold April start, and it now looks like the beginning of June2005.
^ Maybe somewhat warmer in spots, but there are other areas north of the Bahamas-to-PuertoRico line that are somewhat cooler.
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I hope accuweather is wrong. In the 15 day forecast on day 15 it shows this.

Thursday

high 113/low 85
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1585. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Oman Meteorological Department

Date: 03/06/2010
Time: 07:00 LST.

The Weather System over Arabian Sea
Warning no. 4

Heavy rainfall has started to fall over some parts of Al-Sharqiya region. Latest Satellite images and numerical weather prediction charts indicate the tropical cyclone PHET over west Arabian Sea has moved further towards North West direction.

It's centre is currently located near latitude 18.5N 59.4E. PHET is around 180 km away from Masirah Island. Maximum sustained wind speed around the centre is estimated to be around 100 knots and by which it is classified as Category 3. PHET is expected to continue its movement into a Northwesterly direction towards A'Sharqiya and AlWasta coastal areas in the next 24 hours with 4 knots associated with heavy thunder shower accompany with strong winds. Regions of, AlDhakhlia and AlBhatinah and Muscat Governate are expected to be affected by the convective cloud between Thursday afternoon until Saturday.


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Quoting Halyn:
1552. tornadodude: "rain anyone" ..

No thanks, tornadodude .. we have had plenty so I'm sending some your way .. :)Courtesy of the St. Louis area .. :)


and boy is it ever raining!! sheeesh! lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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