Asia records its hottest temperature in history; Category 4 Phet threatens Oman

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:47 PM GMT on June 02, 2010

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A hellish heat wave hit Pakistan last week, sending the mercury to an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at the town of MohenjuDaro on Wednesday May 26, reported the Pakistani Meteorological Department. While this temperature reading must be reviewed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for authenticity, not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia. This information comes to me courtesy of Chris Burt, the author of Extreme Weather, who is probably the world's foremost expert on extreme weather records. In a collaborative effort with weather record researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford, Mr. Burt has painstakingly researched the extreme weather records for every country on Earth. They list the previous reliable record high for Asia as the 52.7°C (127°F) temperature measured on June 12, 1919, in the Sindh province of Pakistan. Temperatures exceed 120°F in this region of Pakistan nearly every year, in the late May/early June time frame before the monsoon arrives. Last week's heat wave killed at least 18 Pakistanis, and temperatures in excess of 50°C (122°F) were recorded at nine Pakistani cities on May 26, including 53°C (127.4°F) at Sibi.

All-time hottest temperature for Southeast Asia this month
Record heat also hit Southeast Asia in May. According to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Mr. Burt, the 47°C (116.6°F) measured on May 12 this year is the hottest temperature measured in Southeast Asia in recorded history.

Bogus extreme temperature records
I'm pleased to say that Chris Burt will be joining wunderground.com as a featured blogger later this year to discuss his work. He's working on a great new website that features weather records for each country of the world, complete with footnotes on disputed records. For example, many record books list Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature. Mr. Burt comments: "54°C (129.2°F) has widely been quoted as the highest temperature ever recorded in Israel (and Asia) but there exist serious issues with this record. The temperature was recorded on a thermograph at Tirat Zvi on 21 June 1942. Examination of a copy of this trace (see Bio-Climatic Atlas of Israel by Dr. D. Ashbel, Central Press, Jerusalem, 1950, p.125, Figure 1) actually shows a maximum temperature of 53°C (127.4°F). No explanation is known for this 1°C discrepancy. In comparison with surrounding stations, it is likely that the actual temperature recorded at Tirat Zvi on this data was probably no higher than 52°C (125.6°F), which would be a record high temperature for Israel. Temperatures have reached or exceeded 50°C (122°F) in Israel only during this one episode in 1942.


Figure 1. Temperature trace from Bio-Climatic Atlas of Israel by Dr. D. Ashbel, Central Press, Jerusalem, 1950, p.125 for Tirat Zvi, Israel, the week of June 21, 1942.


Figure 2. Zoom of temperature trace from Bio-Climatic Atlas of Israel by Dr. D. Ashbel, Central Press, Jerusalem, 1950, p.125, for Tirat Zvi, Israel, the week of June 21, 1942. The temperature clearly only reached 53°C, if one reads the graph properly. Thus the 54°C temperature labeled on the graph is not correct.

Mr. Burt comments in his Extreme Weather book that every temperature record for the planet in excess of 129°F can be disputed. All of these records, except for the 134°F recorded at Greenland Ranch in Death Valley, California, were made by French colonial era instruments which were found to be irregular as far as the exposure of the screens used to house the temperature instruments. In some cases, the temperature instrument was housed closer to the ground than it should have been. Mr. Burt will have an in-depth analysis of the evidence later this summer when he begins blogging for us.


Figure 3. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Wednesday, June 2, 2010.

Tropical Cyclone Phet the 2nd strongest Arabian Sea storm on record
The record heat over southern Asia in May has helped heat up the Arabian Sea to 2°C above normal. The exceptionally warm SSTs have helped fuel a rare major hurricane in the Arabian Sea today, as Tropical Cyclone Phet underwent an impressive bout of rapid intensification this morning to become a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Phet is a Thai word pronounced as Pet, meaning "Diamond". Intense hurricanes are rare in the Arabian Sea, due to the basin's small size, the interference of the summer monsoon, and the frequent presence of dry air and dust from the Arabian Peninsula. Phet is now the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, behind Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman. Third place is held by the 2001 India Cyclone 01A and Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ARB 01 (02A), which were Category 3 storms with 125 mph winds.

Phet is over some of the warmest ocean waters on the planet, 30 - 31°C (86 - 88°F), and warm waters in excess of 26.5°C (80°F) extend to a depth of at least 50 meters (165 feet), resulting in a Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential high enough to allow Phet to attain Category 5 status. Phet is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is forecasting Phet to become a Category 5 storm later today. The storm is moving slowly north-northwest towards Oman, and could ingest dry air from the Arabian Peninsula on Thursday, resulting in weakening. It now appears likely that Phet will make landfall in Oman before recurving to the northeast and hitting Pakistan. The region of Oman likely to get hit is sparsely populated, so wind and storm surge damage will not be the main concerns. Phet will spread heavy rains over the heavily populated northern regions of Oman, which will likely cause extreme flooding. Phet has the potential to be worse for Oman than Tropical Cyclone Gonu, which did $4.2 billion in damage and killed 50 people in June 2007.

Impact on Pakistan
Phet is on track to make landfall in Pakistan or Iran after hitting Oman. Phet will be much weakened by passage over Oman, and may only be a tropical storm after crossing the Gulf of Oman and arriving at the Iran/Pakistan coast. Still, Phet's rains could easily cause destructive floods in Iran and Pakistan.

The strongest tropical cyclone on record to hit Pakistan was Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ARB 01 (02A), which hit near Karachi on May 20, 1999, as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. According to Wikipedia, 02A killed 700 people did $6 million in damage (1999 USD). I've also found references to a December 15, 1965 cyclone that killed 10,000 near Karachi, Pakistan.

Oil spill update
Moderate onshore winds of 10 - 20 knots out of the southeast to southwest are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over most of the next week, resulting increased threats of oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These persistent southwesterly winds will likely bring oil as far east as Fort Walton Beach, Florida, by Monday.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll be back Thursday with more on Phet and an analysis of the new Colorado State University hurricane forecast issued by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray issued today.

Jeff Masters

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POLO!!!!!!!

:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting smarterthanyou:
smart people have
been leaving Florida
for years

expect that
to
accelerate
dramatically
Really?? So you think your smarter than the rest of us because you left Florida? Shame on you
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
I don't mean go all GB on everybody, but our seemingly new blogger knows that injecting the name "JFV" into the discussion will cause some amount of turmoil .... if he is new, how can that be so?

"It is a question worth asking, America."

Hey Guys,
I did not mean to start any turmoil by bringing up JFV. I have been a reader and a rare participant of this blog for the last couple of years and that is why I know what kind of comments JFV makes and how he is praying for every storm to hit his area. As I mentioned earlier, I just retired last month and I now have the time to sit here and chat with all of you and hopefully learn something in the process. If CycloneOZ is not JFV then I apologize for the mistake.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dry air has severely disrupted the eyewall.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
I'd rather eliminate the need for oil completely. That would be nice. I don't care how much oil costs. I think it needs to go up dramatically so we will really start to focus on an alternative.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
I don't mean go all GB on everybody, but our seemingly new blogger knows that injecting the name "JFV" into the discussion will cause some amount of turmoil .... if he is new, how can that be so?

"It is a question worth asking, America."

You know you make a very valid point there. Great observation there. We need not bring his name back up or quotes from him.
Sheri
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning everyone. I am at work but couldn't resist signing in for two seconds. Is anyone familiar with TropicalWave ? Reading back over his/her posts sounds a lot like the infamous JFV.
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Quoting CaneWarning:
316. An American company would be just as bad. I say send all the oil companies out of the gulf.


The USA will become a 3rd world country without its oil.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I agree Canewarning. Let's buy all our oil from overseas and pay $15.00 a gallon. That just makes no sense.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaneWarning:
316. An American company would be just as bad. I say send all the oil companies out of the gulf.


Then folks can bicycle to the Fla Beaches..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting DestinJeff:
I don't mean go all GB on everybody, but our seemingly new blogger knows that injecting the name "JFV" into the discussion will cause some amount of turmoil .... if he is new, how can that be so?

"It is a question worth asking, America."


Yo, Jeff, who is the new blogger? I hate it when I miss a good early afternoon turmoil.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
316. An American company would be just as bad. I say send all the oil companies out of the gulf.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oz is cool! we love Oz!

:)
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
This water vapor image shows the upper trough that is trying to recurve Cyclone Phet, as well as the big ridge moving in from Saudi Arabia that may prevent Phet from being completely recurved by the trough in time to avoid hitting Oman in a direct way. Massive subsidence associated with this ridge right over the Arabian Desert shows up well on the water vapor image as very black, dry, desert air that is attacking Phet's northwest quadrant. You can see the outflow channel to the north getting cut-off and sheared to the northeast as the dry NW flow on the eastern flank of the Arabian ridge punches into the storm. In this kind of a situation I highly doubt Phet will attain Category 5 status.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
312. Exactly.
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LATEST MOVE TO CONTAIN GULF OIL SPILL STALLS
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
I hope he did get banned for ever. after the nasty emails he sent me.

I got your back, girl.....

:)
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Another one makes the ignore list.
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big picture latest up till 1212 pm edt
wave off africa has waned convection some turning is evident next image just after 3 pm


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Quoting Grothar:


You can trust us Wind, CycloneOZ is definitely not JFV. He may be a little strange, and his jaw may crack when eating, and he may have noticeable troubling digesting raw vegetables, but he is a good blogger!!!!!! He is OK.

Wow I feel the LOVE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NRAamy:
Oz is NOT JFV


Hey Amy, Oz is Oz not JFV, JFV is a jerk and Oz isn't, he's a good guy and we all love him and what he does, I like his video's. At least he brings something to the table.
So what ur opinion of the Hurricane Season? I hope u been doing fine.
Sheri
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Quoting Ossqss:
Florida population growth from here

http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=uspopulation&met=population&idim=state:12000&dl=en& amp;hl=en&q=flor ida+current+population



the logic
of your post
escapes me

I clearly said
'smart'
people
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Quoting Ossqss:
Florida population growth from here

http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=uspopulation&met=population&idim=state:1200 0&dl=en&hl=en&q=flor ida+current+population



Wow, that is a fun little link. I didn't realize that the whole state of Mississippi has about the same number of people as the Tampa Bay area. Interesting stuff.
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Quoting catastropheadjuster:

I hope he did get banned for ever. after the nasty emails he sent me. Anyone that would pick on a 2yr old is just pitiful. He made fun of my grandsons picture and said some very rude things to me. So I really hope he's gone for good this time. I use to think he was nice but he fooled me.
Sheri


We have seen the last of that individual and his dynamic IP.

And if he pops up again,..that IP will be treated like the wack a mole it iz.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
WINDSmurf...you need an appropriate avatar...

:)
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Florida population growth from here

http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=uspopulation&met=population&idim=state:12000&dl=en&hl=en&q=flor ida+current+population

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
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Quoting catastropheadjuster:

I hope he did get banned for ever. after the nasty emails he sent me. Anyone that would pick on a 2yr old is just pitiful. He made fun of my grandsons picture and said some very rude things to me. So I really hope he's gone for good this time. I use to think he was nice but he fooled me.
Sheri


He was here last night using the name hurricane07...or at least I think that was the name.
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Quoting WINDSMURF:

Hey,
My memory is a little rusty, but please don't tell me that this CycloneOz is the same JFV/weatherstudent/showerstudent dude. Please tell me is not him. I just retired last month and looking forward to a good season here on the blog without the weird comments


You can trust us Wind, CycloneOZ is definitely not JFV. He may be a little strange, and his jaw may crack when eating, and he may have noticeable troubling digesting raw vegetables, but he is a good blogger!!!!!! He is OK.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Melancon calls for BP CEO to step down


by WWL-TV.com

wwltv.com

Posted on June 2, 2010 at 11:12 AM

Updated today at 11:16 AM

Rep. Charlie Melancon, D-Napoleonville, has had enough of BP CEO Tony Hayward.

The representative told ABC’s “Good Morning America” that he thinks Hayward should be relieved of his duties after his company has failed time and again to stop the oil gushing out of the floor of the Gulf of Mexico from where the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded in late April.

“If I had performed the way this company has performed and, of course, look at the stocks and what have happened to them because of this incident, usually the buck stops there,” Melancon said on the morning news show.

He added, “I was watching this week as the CEO of BP was talking about he wants his life back. I’m to the point where I wish the board would call him back and give us somebody that really wants to make sure the people of this state, the people of this Gulf Coast region have what they need when they want to try and fight this oil spill.”

More than 19 million barrels of oil have leaked into the Gulf during the past six weeks and BP’s latest try at slowing down the flow hit a snag Wednesday when the saw cutting down pipes became stuck during cutting.

BP, though, isn’t the only group receiving the ire of Melancon, who is challenging Sen. David Vitter, R- La., in this fall’s elections.

Melancon called for anyone involved in waiving National Environmental Policy Act laws to face criminal charges.

“I think anyone that had a hand in what transpired from the beginning of the application for the permit all the way through the negligence on the rig, we ought to be looking at any aspect of it,” Melancon said.

Meanwhile, also on Wednesday, Vitter sent a letter to Hayward, imploring BP to pay for the barrier islands the federal government already has approved to help stop the oil before it reaches the wetlands.

The email reads, “Last week, after weeks of delay, the federal government finally issued permits for approximately 40 percent of the state of Louisiana’s emergency dredging barrier island plan (six of roughly 40 segments), but only agreed to move forward and have BP pay for approximately two percent of the plan (one small segment). This is completely unacceptable and displays the lack of urgency and can-do attitude that has plagued the federal and BP response from the beginning.

“In keeping with BP’s clear commitment to pay for all response measures and damages associated with this disaster, I request that BP confirm in writing that it will fund all other permitted segments of the above plan now so that the state can contract for and commence all of that work immediately.”
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128344
Quoting smarterthanyou:
smart people have
been leaving Florida
for years

expect that
to
accelerate
dramatically


And I think it's not a matter of smarts, just a matter of people leaving Florida because they are scared of Hurricanes. I gave up my snow shovel years ago and am scared of Tornado's, that's why I left the North.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:


I was just going to ask if anyone has figured out his new handle ... assuming he has one, and assuming FIU2010 got 86d.

I may be in the minority, but his presence doesn't bother me. Although, I don't play the ignore game with anybody.

I hope he did get banned for ever. after the nasty emails he sent me. Anyone that would pick on a 2yr old is just pitiful. He made fun of my grandsons picture and said some very rude things to me. So I really hope he's gone for good this time. I use to think he was nice but he fooled me.
Sheri
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Well, if everyone leaves who will take care of all these pristine beaches vacationers come to play on. Who will serve the slurpies?


or who will work at the many theme parks that we have down here?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oz is NOT JFV
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting smarterthanyou:
smart people have
been leaving Florida
for years

expect that
to
accelerate
dramatically


Well, if everyone leaves who will take care of all these pristine beaches vacationers come to play on. Who will serve the slurpies?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting smarterthanyou:
smart people have
been leaving Florida
for years

expect that
to
accelerate
dramatically


wow way to take a shot at people who live in Florida
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CycloneOz:


What's your problem?

No problem here buddy. If you are JFV, then we always need you around here to make us fell smart. If you are not JFV then don't listen to him so people will not think that your him LOL
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Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Long way from being Jealous. Just made a very simple comment. And someone nice gave me a link so I could look, so don't start no garbage, just talking that's all. I was born and raised in Tampa,Fla and moved to Alabama in 1977, and glad I did. Florida does get hit to much.
Sheri
Sheri


yea we do get hit too much
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Where's Waldo?
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Quoting Patrap:
Fla.does have the Highest wunderground Impact cheerleading section..

Hands down,..or up depending on yer view..



Well, go round up some fellow fans from your area. Even the playing field if you will :-/
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
sounds like someone is jealous that Florida gets more attention during hurricane season lol

I guess if you look at history you would see why.


Long way from being Jealous. Just made a very simple comment. And someone nice gave me a link so I could look, so don't start no garbage, just talking that's all. I was born and raised in Tampa,Fla and moved to Alabama in 1977, and glad I did. Florida does get hit to much.
Sheri
Sheri
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CycloneOz:


I guess so. I've become so much of a fan of his, I guess it's rubbed off now! :)


JFV needs an official fan club. You could be the President!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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