Asia records its hottest temperature in history; Category 4 Phet threatens Oman

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:47 PM GMT on June 02, 2010

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A hellish heat wave hit Pakistan last week, sending the mercury to an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at the town of MohenjuDaro on Wednesday May 26, reported the Pakistani Meteorological Department. While this temperature reading must be reviewed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for authenticity, not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia. This information comes to me courtesy of Chris Burt, the author of Extreme Weather, who is probably the world's foremost expert on extreme weather records. In a collaborative effort with weather record researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford, Mr. Burt has painstakingly researched the extreme weather records for every country on Earth. They list the previous reliable record high for Asia as the 52.7°C (127°F) temperature measured on June 12, 1919, in the Sindh province of Pakistan. Temperatures exceed 120°F in this region of Pakistan nearly every year, in the late May/early June time frame before the monsoon arrives. Last week's heat wave killed at least 18 Pakistanis, and temperatures in excess of 50°C (122°F) were recorded at nine Pakistani cities on May 26, including 53°C (127.4°F) at Sibi.

All-time hottest temperature for Southeast Asia this month
Record heat also hit Southeast Asia in May. According to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Mr. Burt, the 47°C (116.6°F) measured on May 12 this year is the hottest temperature measured in Southeast Asia in recorded history.

Bogus extreme temperature records
I'm pleased to say that Chris Burt will be joining wunderground.com as a featured blogger later this year to discuss his work. He's working on a great new website that features weather records for each country of the world, complete with footnotes on disputed records. For example, many record books list Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature. Mr. Burt comments: "54°C (129.2°F) has widely been quoted as the highest temperature ever recorded in Israel (and Asia) but there exist serious issues with this record. The temperature was recorded on a thermograph at Tirat Zvi on 21 June 1942. Examination of a copy of this trace (see Bio-Climatic Atlas of Israel by Dr. D. Ashbel, Central Press, Jerusalem, 1950, p.125, Figure 1) actually shows a maximum temperature of 53°C (127.4°F). No explanation is known for this 1°C discrepancy. In comparison with surrounding stations, it is likely that the actual temperature recorded at Tirat Zvi on this data was probably no higher than 52°C (125.6°F), which would be a record high temperature for Israel. Temperatures have reached or exceeded 50°C (122°F) in Israel only during this one episode in 1942.


Figure 1. Temperature trace from Bio-Climatic Atlas of Israel by Dr. D. Ashbel, Central Press, Jerusalem, 1950, p.125 for Tirat Zvi, Israel, the week of June 21, 1942.


Figure 2. Zoom of temperature trace from Bio-Climatic Atlas of Israel by Dr. D. Ashbel, Central Press, Jerusalem, 1950, p.125, for Tirat Zvi, Israel, the week of June 21, 1942. The temperature clearly only reached 53°C, if one reads the graph properly. Thus the 54°C temperature labeled on the graph is not correct.

Mr. Burt comments in his Extreme Weather book that every temperature record for the planet in excess of 129°F can be disputed. All of these records, except for the 134°F recorded at Greenland Ranch in Death Valley, California, were made by French colonial era instruments which were found to be irregular as far as the exposure of the screens used to house the temperature instruments. In some cases, the temperature instrument was housed closer to the ground than it should have been. Mr. Burt will have an in-depth analysis of the evidence later this summer when he begins blogging for us.


Figure 3. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Wednesday, June 2, 2010.

Tropical Cyclone Phet the 2nd strongest Arabian Sea storm on record
The record heat over southern Asia in May has helped heat up the Arabian Sea to 2°C above normal. The exceptionally warm SSTs have helped fuel a rare major hurricane in the Arabian Sea today, as Tropical Cyclone Phet underwent an impressive bout of rapid intensification this morning to become a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Phet is a Thai word pronounced as Pet, meaning "Diamond". Intense hurricanes are rare in the Arabian Sea, due to the basin's small size, the interference of the summer monsoon, and the frequent presence of dry air and dust from the Arabian Peninsula. Phet is now the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, behind Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman. Third place is held by the 2001 India Cyclone 01A and Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ARB 01 (02A), which were Category 3 storms with 125 mph winds.

Phet is over some of the warmest ocean waters on the planet, 30 - 31°C (86 - 88°F), and warm waters in excess of 26.5°C (80°F) extend to a depth of at least 50 meters (165 feet), resulting in a Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential high enough to allow Phet to attain Category 5 status. Phet is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is forecasting Phet to become a Category 5 storm later today. The storm is moving slowly north-northwest towards Oman, and could ingest dry air from the Arabian Peninsula on Thursday, resulting in weakening. It now appears likely that Phet will make landfall in Oman before recurving to the northeast and hitting Pakistan. The region of Oman likely to get hit is sparsely populated, so wind and storm surge damage will not be the main concerns. Phet will spread heavy rains over the heavily populated northern regions of Oman, which will likely cause extreme flooding. Phet has the potential to be worse for Oman than Tropical Cyclone Gonu, which did $4.2 billion in damage and killed 50 people in June 2007.

Impact on Pakistan
Phet is on track to make landfall in Pakistan or Iran after hitting Oman. Phet will be much weakened by passage over Oman, and may only be a tropical storm after crossing the Gulf of Oman and arriving at the Iran/Pakistan coast. Still, Phet's rains could easily cause destructive floods in Iran and Pakistan.

The strongest tropical cyclone on record to hit Pakistan was Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ARB 01 (02A), which hit near Karachi on May 20, 1999, as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. According to Wikipedia, 02A killed 700 people did $6 million in damage (1999 USD). I've also found references to a December 15, 1965 cyclone that killed 10,000 near Karachi, Pakistan.

Oil spill update
Moderate onshore winds of 10 - 20 knots out of the southeast to southwest are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over most of the next week, resulting increased threats of oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These persistent southwesterly winds will likely bring oil as far east as Fort Walton Beach, Florida, by Monday.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll be back Thursday with more on Phet and an analysis of the new Colorado State University hurricane forecast issued by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray issued today.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


StormW was noting that the area should move WNW to NW


Yep...WNW to NW...jumping up in latitude.

Push is towards the Caribbean. Favorable conditions should it get in there...

Further NW until it gets west of Cuba...and then it's pushed ENE.

Is anyone seeing anything different?
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Mrs. Oz has an awesome name!

:)
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


StormW was noting that the area should move WNW to NW


The ITCZ over the central-eastern ATL is shifting northward a little, so yes some WNW movement is possible, but even then, this dry Saharan air layer to the north will likely be a problem.

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Quoting NRAamy:
So do I :)

love you Oz!

:)


Amy Amy...

I get to say your name everday! (As Mrs. CycloneOz is an Amy, also!)

We all love you, too...ya know! :)
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Quoting Levi32:


These waves, however, can cause mischief if they get into the Caribbean at this time of year.


Let's hope it doesn't make it to that area.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
So do I :)

love you Oz!

:)
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Quoting Levi32:


We can forget the date completely. It is just a number, and it shall only and ever be, just a number. The conditions typically associated with this number, are what people are thinking of. True to climatology, this wave is likely too close to the equator for now to pose a threat for development.

Conditions would support development earlier than usual this year in the eastern Atlantic though, if a tropical wave were to come off far enough north.


These waves, however, can cause mischief if they get into the Caribbean at this time of year.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


but it cant develop or anything it is only June 2nd :P


its the season
if something would to come this early
this would be the season for it to happen
there are conditions that can support tropical cyclone formation
it is june second
we are in
the north atlantic
it is hurricane season
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Levi32:


We can forget the date completely. It is just a number, and it shall only and ever be, just a number. The conditions typically associated with this number, are what people are thinking of. True to climatology, this wave is likely too close to the equator for now to pose a threat for development.

Conditions would support development earlier than usual this year in the eastern Atlantic though, if a tropical wave were to come off far enough north.


StormW was noting that the area should move WNW to NW
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Quoting WINDSMURF:

Wow I feel the LOVE


So do I :)
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


but it cant develop or anything it is only June 2nd :P


We can forget the date completely. It is just a number, and it shall only and ever be, just a number. The conditions typically associated with this number, are what people are thinking of. True to climatology, this wave is likely too close to the equator for now to pose a threat for development.

Conditions would support development earlier than usual this year in the eastern Atlantic though, if a tropical wave were to come off far enough north.
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a test everyone should take before commenting on our "issues" with oil.

one thing leads to another

350. Ossqss 4:49 PM GMT on June 02, 2010
Here is a test for ya if you like.

Look around you and find something that you have that has not been impacted by oil or fossil fuels.

I did it the other day and was amazed at the influence of that stuff on every aspect of our lives.

I thought I found a few, like a wooden sculpture, but it was probably cut by a chain saw, and I had some vegetables growing in the garden, but they came from seed in a package and were fertilized with compost made from stuff that was impacted by the same.

Quite amazing the dependence you have on things that maintain your lifestyle that come from things like oil. Electronics, clothing, and on and on.

Think about it, kinda scary!


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Quoting Levi32:


Whenever you see high clouds expanding outward and curving clockwise away from thunderstorms in the northern hemisphere like that, then you are looking at outflow. Outflow will often even show up as "wind shear" on wind shear maps, but it does not inhibit a tropical system because it is generated by the system itself.

The subtropical jet is just north of this wave causing high shear, but wind shear is only about 10 knots over the main convective area.



but it cant develop or anything it is only June 2nd :P
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Phet's movement has slowed to a westward crawl over the past 6 hours. This is the key moment when the trough will either be able to recurve Phet or the ridge to the west will catch him and bring him onshore into Oman. Steering currents on the edge of a ridge as a trough passes by to the north are very weak, and Phet is feeling that right now which is why he's slowing down.

IR floater loop
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Quoting drg0dOwnCountry


your back

safe to stay on topic

or your stay will be safe to say short
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
№ 364

What does it mean when it says "Carbon-adjusted" costs?

Edit: Never mind. Just looked at the link. This is referring to including the cost of carbon capture and storage into the overall cost.
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Quoting Patrap:
Hopefully Phet has peaked..as its Lost it's Eye,and is Bi-lobing a new center seems.





taking a little hit its to pull away head to open water regain itself once more
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Nope, just your imagination...
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Quoting TropicalWave:
levi, is the EATL wave exhibiting outflow or is that just wind shear? lol.


Whenever you see high clouds expanding outward and curving clockwise away from thunderstorms in the northern hemisphere like that, then you are looking at outflow. Outflow will often even show up as "wind shear" on wind shear maps, but it does not inhibit a tropical system because it is generated by the system itself.

The subtropical jet is just north of this wave causing high shear, but wind shear is only about 10 knots over the main convective area.

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The Cost Effectiveness of Concentrating Solar Power


Concentrating solar power is on a roll. Innovation is happening rapidly. Investment is flowing in. Linchpin commercial deployments are coming on line. More are planned.
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101 AussieStorm "Question: How many people on this blog right now have put there hand in their skyrocket(pocket) and are paid members?"
109 Minnemike "...I don't know if that phrase carries well in the States..."

Skyrockets in flight
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Quoting GOLSUTIGERS:

There is a bunch of us from LA we just don't yell "it's coming" everytime something is brewing.


There is a bunch of us from FLA that do the same, we just choose to look the other way instead of complaining about it.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
I don't mean go all GB on everybody, but our seemingly new blogger knows that injecting the name "JFV" into the discussion will cause some amount of turmoil .... if he is new, how can that be so?

"It is a question worth asking, America."


Because not all "NEW" Bloggers are "NEW" alot are lurkers that have been watching the blogs for years. Know the drama. Pay our $10 but never post.
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Do I remember correctly that the overwhelming majority of our roads come from oil -- as in ASPHALT??????
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Quoting Katrina2NOLA2010:
328:

At current solar panel efficiency and prices, it'd take an initial investment of about $55 trillion dollars for the solar panels alone which would be needed to do away with nuclear, coal, and oil power for all forms of industry, residential, and transportation needs.

This number, $55 trillion


Half a Trillion Dollars to Build Huge Desertec Plan

climate change prevention. It is the ambitous plan to power Europe, the Middle East and Africa off renewable power strung along a giant new supergrid of High-Voltage Direct Current transmission lines connecting the two continents.

http://cleantechnica.com/2009/06/22/half-a-trillion-dollars-to-build-huge-desertec-plan/
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Upper-level convergence on the eastern flank of the ridge over Saudi Arabia is showing up well on CIMSS products. The shorter arrows represent a slower air flow which causes air to pile up in the upper atmosphere. Air piling up here has nowhere to go but downward, and sinks, which is called subsidence. Subsidence causes the air to warm by compression, which also dries it out by lowering its relative humidity. This is why the satellite images show so much black, dry (and very hot) air over Saudi Arabia, which is beginning to significantly impair Cyclone Phet. This is very good news for the people of Oman.



^^CIMSS upper-level divergence. Negative numbers and dashed lines represent negative divergence, or convergence.
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355. myway
Quoting CaneWarning:


I agree, but the vast majority goes into our gas tanks. It's unfortunate.


Less than half of a 42 gal. barrel is refined into gas.
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349. We can't rely on solar alone obviously.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting Grothar:


We're just fooling with you. If any of us were really mad, you would have known it by now. Many of us here have developed a very protective stance for each other.......Why I even defend NRAmy. LOL Don't worry about. It was all in fun.

GROTHAR!

(Hey, check out a painful truth in my blog...I think you would enjoy.)
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Here is a test for ya if you like.

Look around you and find something that you have that has not been impacted by oil or fossil fuels.

I did it the other day and was amazed at the influence of that stuff on every aspect of our lives.

I thought I found a few, like a wooden sculpture, but it was probably cut by a chain saw, and I had some vegetables growing in the garden, but they came from seed in a package and were fertilized with compost made from stuff that was impacted by the same.

Quite amazing the dependence you have on things that maintain your lifestyle that come from things like oil. Electronics, clothing, and on and on.

Think about it, kinda scary!
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8185
348. srada
Was on AOL this morning and saw this article about the TWC..how its no longer the WEATHER channel anymore..and sadly its true..

Link
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Hopefully Phet has peaked..as its Lost it's Eye,and is Bi-lobing a new center seems.





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127633
Quoting Patrap:


Best look at what comes from oil..Like that puter, the keyboard, the paint, the Medical Plastics..your gonna need to replace it with what?

Easy to say..hard to get off a Global addiction.





I agree, but the vast majority goes into our gas tanks. It's unfortunate.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting Katrina2NOLA2010:
PHET:

-90C to -110C cloud tops. Insane!



Those cloud tops are -80C to -90C, which is not surprising since Phet is over the warmest waters in the world right now, which are greater than 31C in places. Many intense tropical cyclones will attain cloud tops that high. Wilma did it, which is actually rare for an Atlantic hurricane.
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Quoting msgambler:
Canewarning, I need gas to do my job. You plan on supporting my family and myself. And everyone else who owns their own buisness in the transportation field?


I'd rather the oil companies not be involved at all, but I'd be behind anybody that finds a solution.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Quoting WINDSMURF:

Hey Guys,
I did not mean to start any turmoil by bringing up JFV. I have been a reader and a rare participant of this blog for the last couple of years and that is why I know what kind of comments JFV makes and how he is praying for every storm to hit his area. As I mentioned earlier, I just retired last month and I now have the time to sit here and chat with all of you and hopefully learn something in the process. If CycloneOZ is not JFV then I apologize for the mistake.


We're just fooling with you. If any of us were really mad, you would have known it by now. Many of us here have developed a very protective stance for each other.......Why I even defend NRAmy. LOL Don't worry about. It was all in fun.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25395
Quoting CaneWarning:
I'd rather eliminate the need for oil completely. That would be nice. I don't care how much oil costs. I think it needs to go up dramatically so we will really start to focus on an alternative.


Best look at what comes from oil..Like that puter, the keyboard, the paint, the Medical Plastics..your gonna need to replace it with what?

Easy to say..hard to get off a Global addiction.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127633
Quoting WINDSMURF:

Hey Guys,
I did not mean to start any turmoil by bringing up JFV. I have been a reader and a rare participant of this blog for the last couple of years and that is why I know what kind of comments JFV makes and how he is praying for every storm to hit his area. As I mentioned earlier, I just retired last month and I now have the time to sit here and chat with all of you and hopefully learn something in the process. If CycloneOZ is not JFV then I apologize for the mistake.


I don't think you are JFV. You can spell and speak English correctly. JFV can't do that.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
Canewarning, I need gas to do my job. You plan on supporting my family and myself. And everyone else who owns their own buisness in the transportation field?
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Quoting CaneWarning:
I'd rather eliminate the need for oil completely. That would be nice. I don't care how much oil costs. I think it needs to go up dramatically so we will really start to focus on an alternative.


Now that makes more sense. Perhaps a doubling of the price will get the oil companies enough money to finance R&D on alternatives and making it happen.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Well, go round up some fellow fans from your area. Even the playing field if you will :-/

There is a bunch of us from LA we just don't yell "it's coming" everytime something is brewing.
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POLO!!!!!!!

:)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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