The hurricane season of 2010 arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2010

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The hurricane season of 2010 is upon us. With unprecedented sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, El Niño gone and possibly transitioning to La Niña, a massive oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico, a million earthquake refugees in Haiti at the mercy of a hurricane strike, and an ever-increasing number of people living on our coasts, the arrival of this year's hurricane season comes with an unusually ominous tone. NOAA is forecasting a very active and possibly hyperactive season, and Dr. Bill Gray has said he expects "a hell of a year." However, our ability to forecast hurricane activity months in advance is limited, and we don't yet know how the large scale weather patterns like the Bermuda High will set up during the peak part of hurricane season. In particular, I very much doubt that we are in for a repeat of the unprecedented violence of the Hurricane Season of 2005, with its 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes. While sea surface temperatures are currently warmer this year than in 2005, that year featured some very unusual atmospheric circulation patterns, with a very strong ridge of high pressure over the eastern U.S., record drought in the Amazon, and very low surface pressures over the Atlantic. A repeat of 2005's weather patterns is unlikely, though I am expecting we will get at least four major hurricanes this year. An average year sees just two major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Tracks of all June tropical storms and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, 1995 - 2009. Allison was a subtropical storm (coded blue). Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

The latest long-range computer model guidance suggests there's no reason to suspect that the first two weeks of this year's hurricane season will bring any unusual activity. Climatologically, June is typically the quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season. On average, we see only one named storm every two years in June. Only one major hurricane has made landfall in June--Category 4 Hurricane Audrey of 1957, which struck the Texas/Louisiana border area on June 27 of that year, killing 550. The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. In the fifteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been eleven June named storms (if we include 2008's Tropical Storm Arthur, which really formed on May 31). Five tropical storms have formed in the first half of June in that 14-year period, giving a historical 36% chance of a first-half-of-June named storm. Five June storms in the past 14 years have passed close enough to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill location to have caused significant transport had there been an oil slick on the surface.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are at record high levels over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America this year (Figure 2). As I discussed in my May 15 post, the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Central America (20°W - 80°W), is called the Main Development Region (MDR) because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were an eye-opening 1.46°C above average during April. This is the third straight record warm month, and the warmest anomaly measured for any month--by a remarkable 0.2°C. The previous record warmest anomalies for the Atlantic MDR were set in June 2005 and March 2010, at 1.26°C. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs. The AO and NAO are climate patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean related to fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores-Bermuda High. If the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), this creates a weak Azores-Bermuda High, which reduces the trade winds circulating around the High. During December - February, we had the most negative AO/NAO since records began in 1950, and this caused trade winds between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the hurricane Main Development Region to slow to 1 - 2 m/s (2.2 - 4.5 mph) below average. Slower trade winds mean less mixing of the surface waters with cooler waters down deep, plus less evaporational cooling of the surface water. As a result, the ocean heated up significantly, relative to normal, over the winter and Spring.

However, over the past two weeks, the AO/NAO has trended close to average, and trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to near normal speeds as the Bermuda-Azores High has strengthened. SST anomalies have been falling in recent weeks, and will continue to fall in the coming two weeks, based on the latest forecast from the GFS model. While I expect that record SSTs will continue into mid-June, current trends suggest that by July, SST anomalies will be close to what they were in 2005. SST anomalies in the MDR could fall below the record 2005 levels by the peak part of hurricane season, August - October. Even so, SSTs in the Caribbean this year will be plenty warm to cause an abnormal number of major hurricanes. These warm SSTs may also cause extensive damage to the coral reefs, which suffered huge die-offs from the record SSTs of 2005.

Typically, June storms only form over the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Gulf Stream waters just offshore Florida, where water temperatures are warmest. SSTs are 28 - 30°C in these regions, which is about 0.5 - 1.5°C above average for this time of year. June storms typically form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance. African tropical waves, which serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes, are usually too far south in June to trigger tropical storm formation. Every so often, a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa moves far enough north to act as a seed for a June tropical storm. This was the case for Arthur of 2008 (which also had major help from the spinning remnants of the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Alma). Another way to get Atlantic June storms is for a disturbed weather area in the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to push north into the Western Caribbean and spawn a storm there. This was the case for Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006 (which may have also had help from an African wave). SSTs are too cold in June to allow storms to develop between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands--there has only been once such development in the historical record--Ana of 1979.


Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for May 31, 2010. SSTs averaged more that 1°C above average over the entire tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Note the large region of below average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, signaling the possible start of an La Niña episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream's band of strong high-altitude winds is the main source of wind shear in June over the Atlantic hurricane breeding grounds, since the jet is very active and located quite far south this time of year.

The jet stream over the past few weeks has been locked into a pattern where a southern branch (the subtropical jet stream) brings high wind shear over the Caribbean, and a northern branch (the polar jet stream) brings high wind shear offshore of New England. This leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches off the coast of North Carolina, which is where Invest 90L formed.

The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming ten days (Figure 3.) This means that the waters offshore of North Carolina is the most likely place for a tropical storm to form during this period, though the southwestern Caribbean will at times have shear low enough to allow tropical storm formation. The Gulf of Mexico is forecast to have wind shear too high to support a tropical storm during the first half of June. None of our reliable forecast models call for tropical storm formation over the coming 7 days, though the NOGAPS model indicates the possibility of a tropical disturbance forming off the coast of Nicaragua on Friday.


Figure 3. Wind shear forecast from the 00Z GMT June 1, 2010 run of the GFS model for June 7. Currently, the polar jet stream is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore New England, and the subtropical jet is bringing high wind shear to the northern Caribbean. This leaves the waters off the coast of North Carolina and southern Caribbean under low shear, making these areas the most favored region for tropical storm formation over the next 7 - 10 days. Wind speeds are given in m/s; multiply by two to get a rough conversion to knots. Thus, the red regions of low shear range from 0 - 16 knots.

Dry air and African dust
It's too early to concern ourselves with dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, since these dust outbreaks don't make it all the way to the June tropical cyclone breeding grounds in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Developing storms do have to contend with dry air from Canada moving off the U.S. coast; this was a key reason why our first "Invest" of the year, 90L off the coast of South Carolina, never became a subtropical storm.

Dust expert Professor Amato Evan of the University of Virginia has posted his forecast for African dust for the 2010 hurricane season. Dr. Evan is predicting that due to plentiful rains during last year's rainy season over the Sahel region of Africa, and near average amounts of African dust observed in May 2010 and during the 2009 hurricane season, we can expect near average or moderately below average levels of dust over the tropical Atlantic during the 2010 hurricane season.

Steering currents
The forecast steering current pattern over the next two weeks is a typical one for June, with an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs will be frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2009 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, that steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary
Wind shear over the main breeding grounds for June tropical cyclones, the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean, is expected to be high enough over the next two weeks to give us an average chance of a June named storm. I give a 30% chance of a named storm between now and June 15, and a 60% chance for the entire month of June. There is approximately a 30% chance of a June storm passing close enough to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill to cause significant transport of the oil. See my post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, for more information on this.

Agatha the 6th deadliest Eastern Pacific storm on record
Central America's Tropical Storm Agatha is now the 6th deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones on record. Agatha was a tropical storm for just 12 hours, making landfall Saturday on the Pacific coast of Guatemala as a 45 mph tropical storm. However, the storm brought huge amounts of rain--as much as 36 inches--to the high mountains of Guatemala. So far, flooding and landslides have killed at least 123 people in Guatemala, with 59 others missing. The storm also killed 9 in neighboring El Salvador, and 14 in Honduras.


Figure 4. Journey to the center of the Earth: a massive sinkhole 200 feet (60 meters) deep opened up in the capital, Guatemala City, after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. How are they going to fix this hole? Wow! It doesn't even look real.

Guatemala's worst flooding disaster in recent history was due to Hurricane Stan of 2005, which killed 1,513. The deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record for Guatemala was Hurricane Paul of 1982, which made landfall in Guatemala as a tropical depression. Flooding from Paul's rains killed 620 people in Guatemala.

Oil spill update
Light onshore winds out of the south to southwest are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico all week, resulting increased threats of oil to the Alabama and Mississippi barrier islands, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These persistent southwesterly winds will likely bring oil very close to the Florida Panhandle by Saturday.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Today, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays during hurricane season. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season

I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Portlight receives a major grant to fund U.S. disaster relief work
The Christopher and Dana Reeve Foundation has announced today that it is awarding a Quality of Life Grant in the amount of $21,500 to Portlight Strategies, Inc. The grant will fund a ready-to-deploy container specifically outfitted to serve the immediate needs of people with disabilities in the aftermath of hurricanes and other domestic natural disasters. To read more about this award, check out the Portlight blog. Congratulations, Portlight team!

Portlight continues its Haiti response
Ready or not, the rainy season is here for Haiti. Portlight has done a tremendous amount to help the Haitians get ready for the upcoming hurricane season, as detailed in the Haitian Relief Recap blog post made last week. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to Portlight's efforts in Haiti.


Figure 5. A portion of the 30,000 pounds of rice donated to Haitian earthquake victims by Portlight earlier this month, shipped via the schooner Halie and Mathew.

I'll be back Wednesday afternoon with an analysis of the new Colorado State University hurricane forecast issued by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, due out on June 2.

Jeff Masters

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1424. pottery
Quoting atmoaggie:

Aha, but that was just funded by Costner...real scientists are into the design and function. Not just actors that play scientists on TV.

I dont know. There is something about Hollywood.
Reagan, Arnold in Calif., you know...
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1423. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1411. WinterAnalystwx13 2:49 AM GMT on June 02, 2010
Everyone made their June outlooks yet? For me, I think we will see:

Alex, as a 40 - 60 m/h storm

Bonnie, as a 40-70 m/h storm

Colin, as a 50-70 m/h storm

Danielle, as a 40-60 m/h storm

These are just guesses, but its June. Are we really expecting anything over 70 m/h?


all hurricanes? if the measurement you are using is meters per second.. :0
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1422. Ossqss
Quoting Patrap:


Kevin Costner does have those Gill things,..and that Oil separator..

I tink I may have a screenplay in works on nuther tab ,,somewhere here..

Lemme check


200 gallons of oil per minute in testing removed, why not put them in the water?
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1421. Patrap
They even getting cranky on yer side da Lake now atmo...

Slidell residents jam meeting to vent about Gulf oil spill
By Kia Hall Hayes, The Times-Picayune
June 01, 2010, 9:35PM


Addressing concerned residents who packed into a Slidell cafeteria to ask local, state and federal representatives about the Gulf oil spill on Tuesday, BP spokesman Hugh Depland encouraged them not to hold back.

"If you're angry, be angry. That's OK," he said, "I would probably be angry as well."

Confronting a BP representative minutes later, New Orleans resident Elizabeth Cook did just that. "I want to know why you're using dispersants!" she demanded.

Blown-up photos of polluted water and workers cleaning an egret rested on easels along a nearby wall.

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Quoting Patrap:


Kevin Costner does have those Gill things,..and that Oil separator..

I tink I may have a screenplay in works on nuther tab ,,somewhere here..

Lemme check

Aha, but that was just funded by Costner...real scientists are into the design and function. Not just actors that play scientists on TV.
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1419. Patrap


Upset Nungesser walks out on Coast Guard meeting

An upset Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser walked out of a Coast Guard meeting on sand berms calling it a “Dog and Pony Show.”
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1418. pottery
Quoting atmoaggie:

And Hollywood directors, too...

Feds meet with 'Titanic' director James Cameron on oil spill
"Federal officials are hoping film director James Cameron can help them come up with ideas on how to stop the disastrous oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico."

I'm encouraged that we can send a DiCaprio stunt double down there to fix it...

Well Hollywood has a long history of producing fine Leaders and men of Substance.
Presidents, Governors, Batman.... Long list.
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1417. xcool


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1416. Patrap
Quoting atmoaggie:

And Hollywood directors, too...

Feds meet with 'Titanic' director James Cameron on oil spill
"Federal officials are hoping film director James Cameron can help them come up with ideas on how to stop the disastrous oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico."

I'm encouraged that we can send a DiCaprio stunt double down there to fix it...


Kevin Costner does have those Gill things,..and that Oil separator..

I tink I may have a screenplay in works on nuther tab ,,somewhere here..

Lemme check
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1415. txjac
Does anyone know how long, after the cut through the pipes, that it will take to place the "containment" thingie?
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1414. pottery
Quoting spathy:
Ausie lets hope they can suck more than 80%

There's a witty response to that, somewhere.
Wrong blog, maybe...
heheheh
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Quoting Patrap:
I just Link um...

But folks said the same about Einstein..I believe

And Hollywood directors, too...

Feds meet with 'Titanic' director James Cameron on oil spill
"Federal officials are hoping film director James Cameron can help them come up with ideas on how to stop the disastrous oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico."

I'm encouraged that we can send a DiCaprio stunt double down there to fix it...
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1410. Makoto1
I really don't like this forecast track at all... 110 knots right at Karachi.
Link
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1409. pottery
Quoting Patrap:
I just Link um...

But folks said the same about Einstein..I believe

I know. And yeah, 'bout Albert.
It was his haircut they didnt like.
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Quoting mikatnight:
It's going to work.

And BP doesn't suck.



They blow...

no, they still suck
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1407. Patrap
Matthew Simmons

Matthew Simmons, chair and CEO of Simmons & Company International, is a prominent oil-industry insider and one of the world's leading experts on the topic of peak oil. Simmons was motivated by the 1973 energy crisis to create an investment banking firm catering to oil companies. In his previous capacity, he served as energy adviser to U.S. President George W. Bush.

Matthew Simmons believes the Club of Rome predictions are more accurate than usually acknowledged [1]. Simmons is an advisor to the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre. He is a member of the National Petroleum Council and the Council on Foreign Relations. He believes a careful assessment of Saudi Arabian oil reserves is the most significant issue shaping petroleum politics.

Simmons is the author of the book Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy. His examination of oil reserve decline rates helped raise awareness of the unreliability of Middle East oil reserves as the published reports have never been verified.



Yeah,,took 30 secs to see who he was..

He aint no dummy.

LOL
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1406. pottery
Quoting RTLSNK:


Hey Pottery, Murphy is always around.
I know there are pipes inside of the large pipe, what are the chances that once the large pipe has been cut through completely, the smaller pipes can come shooting up out of that hole with the oil like shot from a cannon?

Not going to happen that way.
It's "like an arrow from a cross-bow" you mean!
Well, the guys on the ship directly above should stand with thier legs tightly clamped shut....
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Quoting Patrap:


9000 days or 24 years


I'm sure the generalistic species will evolve to live with oil but most life in the gulf and in other areas of the world could be wiped out.
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1404. Patrap
I just Link um...

But folks said the same about Einstein..I believe
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1403. pottery
Quoting Patrap:
Oil Guru Matthew Simmons: It Could Be 24 Years Before The Deepwater Gusher Ends

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/matthew-simmons-dylan-ratigan-deepwater-2010-5#ixzz0pehUejxu


By far the most pessimistic take on the oil spill comes from oil guru Matthew Simmons, who was on The Dylan Ratigan Show this afternoon. His warning: There may be no way to stop the leak, and it could take 9000 days (over 24 years) for the gusher to end, while we wait for the well to simply run out. Simmons comes in around the 7 minute mark.



I listened to what he said last week too.
I dont know who called him a Guru, but he makes no sense at all, to me.
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1402. RTLSNK
Quoting pottery:

The remarkable thing is we dont see more of this...
The systems are generally very good, and safety is a huge consideration.
But, crap happens. And when Mr. Murphy is around, well.....


Hey Pottery, Murphy is always around.
I know there are pipes inside of the large pipe, what are the chances that once the large pipe has been cut through completely, the smaller pipes can come shooting up out of that hole with the oil like shot from a cannon?
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1401. pottery
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
if that was the case the oil would not come out in the first place pressure coming out is greater than the water pressure pushing down thats why its coming out

Year, I know. I was quoting some other fool!!
If it was that "pressure" was exerted downwards only, then nothing would float, once you put it under water. (think a piece of wood)
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Quoting pottery:

I read somewhere that the pressure of the water above, would hold the cap down.
I hope that is not BP's thinking LOLOL



A second generation LMRP CAP has been built and will be arriving on site 31May. This new LMRP CAP is a more robust design with additional weight (20,000 pounds of lead) added to help hold the LMRP CAP on to the riser



Link
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1399. SLU
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


not good at all nope

nice write up thanks


Thanks. Based on the conditions it's almost certain to happen this year ....
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1398. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number TWELVE
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHET (ARB02-2010)
5:30 AM IST June 2 2010
=======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm over west central and adjoining east central Arabian Sea intensified into a severe cyclonic storm. Severe Cyclonic Storm Phet moved northwesterly and now lays centered near 17.5N 61.5E or 1200 kms west southwest of Mumbai, 1000 kms southwest of Naliya, and 1000 kms south southwest of Karachi, Pakistan.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 55 knots with a central pressure of 985 hPa. The state of the sea is high to very high around the system's center.

Satellite imagery indicates central dense overcast pattern. The Dvorak intensity of the system is T3.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection observed over the area between 13.0N to 19.0N and 56.0 to 64.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -70 to -85C in association with the system.

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is between 5-15 knots. The system lies to the south of tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 20.0N over the region. The relatively vorticity at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence are favorable for intensification.

The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system would intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm and move slowly in a north northwesterly/northerly direction for the next 24 hours and then recurve northeastward towards Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast under the influence of the approaching trough in mid latitude westerlies at 500 HPA level. Squally winds with speed reaching 30-35 knots gusting to 35 knots would commence along and off Oman coast as a peripheral affect of the system from Wednesday afternoon.

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
12 HRS: 18.5N 61.0E - 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 20.0N 62.0E - 65 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 22.0N 66.0E - 70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 24.0N 70.0E - 50 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
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1397. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:
I'm out for tonight folks. I never thought we would ever see something like this. I guess it was just a matter of time.

The remarkable thing is we dont see more of this...
The systems are generally very good, and safety is a huge consideration.
But, crap happens. And when Mr. Murphy is around, well.....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's going to work.

And BP doesn't suck.



They blow...
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1395. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
later kman
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53536
1394. MahFL
All oil is pretty toxic, it does eventually break down in 50 to 100 years ?
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1393. Patrap
Oil Guru Matthew Simmons: It Could Be 24 Years Before The Deepwater Gusher Ends

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/matthew-simmons-dylan-ratigan-deepwater-2010-5#ixzz0pehUejxu


By far the most pessimistic take on the oil spill comes from oil guru Matthew Simmons, who was on The Dylan Ratigan Show this afternoon. His warning: There may be no way to stop the leak, and it could take 9000 days (over 24 years) for the gusher to end, while we wait for the well to simply run out. Simmons comes in around the 7 minute mark.


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1392. xcool


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I'm out for tonight folks. I never thought we would ever see something like this. I guess it was just a matter of time.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15800
1390. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting pottery:

I read somewhere that the pressure of the water above, would hold the cap down.
I hope that is not BP's thinking LOLOL
if that was the case the oil would not come out in the first place pressure coming out is greater than the water pressure pushing down thats why its coming out
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53536
1389. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:
Do we know what the reserves in this field are ?. How long would this flow last if every attempt failed ?.

I did hear it. But cant remember. Enormous, from the seismic tests done.
But seismic is sometimes wrong too.
BP drilled a deep well here a couple years ago, "guaranteed" to make everyone rich.
3 Aluminium smelters were planned for the gas.
Well ! Dry Hole.
BP lost 100,000 million on that one!
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Quoting Patrap:


9000 days or 24 years


Beyond contemplation.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15800
Quoting Patrap:


9000 days or 24 years

The Gulf of Mexico would be renames the Gulf oil BP.
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1386. Ossqss
I don't remember much from this issue.

http://news.discovery.com/earth/gulf-oil-spill-ixtoc.html
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Quoting pottery:

I read somewhere that the pressure of the water above, would hold the cap down.
I hope that is not BP's thinking LOLOL

I see they have cut enough through the pipe for the oil to start to come out of the cut.
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1384. Levi32
Quoting beell:
Dynamic Lifting

And I think Haby meant a lapse rate that was closer to 10C/km because of cooler mid level temps. The rate. Not an unsaturated parcel. Because it is "saturated".

Maybe not.


What is now confusing me is how a parcel is supposed to work. The definition of a parcel doesn't allow it to mix with surrounding air, and thus once saturated, will remain saturated as it cools because its moisture content does not change.

However, this is not how it happens in the real world. Rising, saturated air can mix with a dry middle layer and become unsaturated. I have never seen in any of my Met books where air will rise at the moist adiabatic rate indefinitely after hitting the LCL.

Convective instability results from the dry middle layer being lifted and cooled at the dry adiabatic rate, and any convection trying to penetrate the dry layer will further enhance the cooling of the layer by evaporational cooling, and is why dry air in the mid-levels chokes off convection. However, in a severe weather situation, this process eventually results in a much greater lapse rate as the dry middle cools faster than the saturated low levels. Once the dry cap is broken, everything breaks loose and you get severe t-storms.
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1383. Patrap
Quoting kmanislander:
Do we know what the reserves in this field are ?. How long would this flow last if every attempt failed ?.


9000 days or 24 years
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Did anyone in the Florida Panhandle see all the rays in the Gulf near the beach this weekend? I've never seen that many at one time and I've been here my whole life. We had all those sharks in the Gulf back in 2004. Just an observation...
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1381. pottery
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
with that pressure ya i hope they have enough counter weight to hold the cap down on it thats alot of upward force

I read somewhere that the pressure of the water above, would hold the cap down.
I hope that is not BP's thinking LOLOL
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
with that pressure ya i hope they have enough counter weight to hold the cap down on it thats alot of upward force


I hope it works... but I have my doubts.
This is going to make FUBAR look like an goal to try and achieve to make things better then they are right now.
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Quoting beell:
At least they don't have to worry about lubricating the saw.


I was wondering if the oil would cause the pulleys to lose their grip on the wire... slippage from the spewage
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Do we know what the reserves in this field are ?. How long would this flow last if every attempt failed ?.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15800
Quoting pottery:

That's what I thought.
So. Where is the oil that has been exiting the riser at 12000 to 20000 BARRELS a day?
This is a long-term thing as you rightly say.

And even if it is breaking down, to some degree, the process consumes oxygen out of the water.
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1376. Makoto1
Quoting serialteg:


lets see if this year brings us a more consistent defense.


Well I doubt they'll give up 12 touchdowns in a game like that so that's something?

(yeah I guess I'm just waiting for more data on that storm in the Indian Ocean, is it obvious? lol)
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1375. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:
We best be careful we dont get a Cat WD-40 Storm in the Gulf soon


thats not going to be a pretty sight pat
only good point there
no oil on the shoreline
it will be all inland
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53536
Quoting Patrap:
We best be careful we dont get a Cat WD-40 Storm in the Gulf soon


Oil Vey!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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