The hurricane season of 2010 arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2010

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The hurricane season of 2010 is upon us. With unprecedented sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, El Niño gone and possibly transitioning to La Niña, a massive oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico, a million earthquake refugees in Haiti at the mercy of a hurricane strike, and an ever-increasing number of people living on our coasts, the arrival of this year's hurricane season comes with an unusually ominous tone. NOAA is forecasting a very active and possibly hyperactive season, and Dr. Bill Gray has said he expects "a hell of a year." However, our ability to forecast hurricane activity months in advance is limited, and we don't yet know how the large scale weather patterns like the Bermuda High will set up during the peak part of hurricane season. In particular, I very much doubt that we are in for a repeat of the unprecedented violence of the Hurricane Season of 2005, with its 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes. While sea surface temperatures are currently warmer this year than in 2005, that year featured some very unusual atmospheric circulation patterns, with a very strong ridge of high pressure over the eastern U.S., record drought in the Amazon, and very low surface pressures over the Atlantic. A repeat of 2005's weather patterns is unlikely, though I am expecting we will get at least four major hurricanes this year. An average year sees just two major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Tracks of all June tropical storms and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, 1995 - 2009. Allison was a subtropical storm (coded blue). Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

The latest long-range computer model guidance suggests there's no reason to suspect that the first two weeks of this year's hurricane season will bring any unusual activity. Climatologically, June is typically the quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season. On average, we see only one named storm every two years in June. Only one major hurricane has made landfall in June--Category 4 Hurricane Audrey of 1957, which struck the Texas/Louisiana border area on June 27 of that year, killing 550. The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. In the fifteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been eleven June named storms (if we include 2008's Tropical Storm Arthur, which really formed on May 31). Five tropical storms have formed in the first half of June in that 14-year period, giving a historical 36% chance of a first-half-of-June named storm. Five June storms in the past 14 years have passed close enough to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill location to have caused significant transport had there been an oil slick on the surface.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are at record high levels over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America this year (Figure 2). As I discussed in my May 15 post, the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Central America (20°W - 80°W), is called the Main Development Region (MDR) because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were an eye-opening 1.46°C above average during April. This is the third straight record warm month, and the warmest anomaly measured for any month--by a remarkable 0.2°C. The previous record warmest anomalies for the Atlantic MDR were set in June 2005 and March 2010, at 1.26°C. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs. The AO and NAO are climate patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean related to fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores-Bermuda High. If the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), this creates a weak Azores-Bermuda High, which reduces the trade winds circulating around the High. During December - February, we had the most negative AO/NAO since records began in 1950, and this caused trade winds between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the hurricane Main Development Region to slow to 1 - 2 m/s (2.2 - 4.5 mph) below average. Slower trade winds mean less mixing of the surface waters with cooler waters down deep, plus less evaporational cooling of the surface water. As a result, the ocean heated up significantly, relative to normal, over the winter and Spring.

However, over the past two weeks, the AO/NAO has trended close to average, and trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to near normal speeds as the Bermuda-Azores High has strengthened. SST anomalies have been falling in recent weeks, and will continue to fall in the coming two weeks, based on the latest forecast from the GFS model. While I expect that record SSTs will continue into mid-June, current trends suggest that by July, SST anomalies will be close to what they were in 2005. SST anomalies in the MDR could fall below the record 2005 levels by the peak part of hurricane season, August - October. Even so, SSTs in the Caribbean this year will be plenty warm to cause an abnormal number of major hurricanes. These warm SSTs may also cause extensive damage to the coral reefs, which suffered huge die-offs from the record SSTs of 2005.

Typically, June storms only form over the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Gulf Stream waters just offshore Florida, where water temperatures are warmest. SSTs are 28 - 30°C in these regions, which is about 0.5 - 1.5°C above average for this time of year. June storms typically form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance. African tropical waves, which serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes, are usually too far south in June to trigger tropical storm formation. Every so often, a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa moves far enough north to act as a seed for a June tropical storm. This was the case for Arthur of 2008 (which also had major help from the spinning remnants of the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Alma). Another way to get Atlantic June storms is for a disturbed weather area in the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to push north into the Western Caribbean and spawn a storm there. This was the case for Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006 (which may have also had help from an African wave). SSTs are too cold in June to allow storms to develop between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands--there has only been once such development in the historical record--Ana of 1979.


Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for May 31, 2010. SSTs averaged more that 1°C above average over the entire tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Note the large region of below average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, signaling the possible start of an La Niña episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream's band of strong high-altitude winds is the main source of wind shear in June over the Atlantic hurricane breeding grounds, since the jet is very active and located quite far south this time of year.

The jet stream over the past few weeks has been locked into a pattern where a southern branch (the subtropical jet stream) brings high wind shear over the Caribbean, and a northern branch (the polar jet stream) brings high wind shear offshore of New England. This leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches off the coast of North Carolina, which is where Invest 90L formed.

The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming ten days (Figure 3.) This means that the waters offshore of North Carolina is the most likely place for a tropical storm to form during this period, though the southwestern Caribbean will at times have shear low enough to allow tropical storm formation. The Gulf of Mexico is forecast to have wind shear too high to support a tropical storm during the first half of June. None of our reliable forecast models call for tropical storm formation over the coming 7 days, though the NOGAPS model indicates the possibility of a tropical disturbance forming off the coast of Nicaragua on Friday.


Figure 3. Wind shear forecast from the 00Z GMT June 1, 2010 run of the GFS model for June 7. Currently, the polar jet stream is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore New England, and the subtropical jet is bringing high wind shear to the northern Caribbean. This leaves the waters off the coast of North Carolina and southern Caribbean under low shear, making these areas the most favored region for tropical storm formation over the next 7 - 10 days. Wind speeds are given in m/s; multiply by two to get a rough conversion to knots. Thus, the red regions of low shear range from 0 - 16 knots.

Dry air and African dust
It's too early to concern ourselves with dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, since these dust outbreaks don't make it all the way to the June tropical cyclone breeding grounds in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Developing storms do have to contend with dry air from Canada moving off the U.S. coast; this was a key reason why our first "Invest" of the year, 90L off the coast of South Carolina, never became a subtropical storm.

Dust expert Professor Amato Evan of the University of Virginia has posted his forecast for African dust for the 2010 hurricane season. Dr. Evan is predicting that due to plentiful rains during last year's rainy season over the Sahel region of Africa, and near average amounts of African dust observed in May 2010 and during the 2009 hurricane season, we can expect near average or moderately below average levels of dust over the tropical Atlantic during the 2010 hurricane season.

Steering currents
The forecast steering current pattern over the next two weeks is a typical one for June, with an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs will be frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2009 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, that steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary
Wind shear over the main breeding grounds for June tropical cyclones, the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean, is expected to be high enough over the next two weeks to give us an average chance of a June named storm. I give a 30% chance of a named storm between now and June 15, and a 60% chance for the entire month of June. There is approximately a 30% chance of a June storm passing close enough to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill to cause significant transport of the oil. See my post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, for more information on this.

Agatha the 6th deadliest Eastern Pacific storm on record
Central America's Tropical Storm Agatha is now the 6th deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones on record. Agatha was a tropical storm for just 12 hours, making landfall Saturday on the Pacific coast of Guatemala as a 45 mph tropical storm. However, the storm brought huge amounts of rain--as much as 36 inches--to the high mountains of Guatemala. So far, flooding and landslides have killed at least 123 people in Guatemala, with 59 others missing. The storm also killed 9 in neighboring El Salvador, and 14 in Honduras.


Figure 4. Journey to the center of the Earth: a massive sinkhole 200 feet (60 meters) deep opened up in the capital, Guatemala City, after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. How are they going to fix this hole? Wow! It doesn't even look real.

Guatemala's worst flooding disaster in recent history was due to Hurricane Stan of 2005, which killed 1,513. The deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record for Guatemala was Hurricane Paul of 1982, which made landfall in Guatemala as a tropical depression. Flooding from Paul's rains killed 620 people in Guatemala.

Oil spill update
Light onshore winds out of the south to southwest are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico all week, resulting increased threats of oil to the Alabama and Mississippi barrier islands, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These persistent southwesterly winds will likely bring oil very close to the Florida Panhandle by Saturday.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Today, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays during hurricane season. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season

I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Portlight receives a major grant to fund U.S. disaster relief work
The Christopher and Dana Reeve Foundation has announced today that it is awarding a Quality of Life Grant in the amount of $21,500 to Portlight Strategies, Inc. The grant will fund a ready-to-deploy container specifically outfitted to serve the immediate needs of people with disabilities in the aftermath of hurricanes and other domestic natural disasters. To read more about this award, check out the Portlight blog. Congratulations, Portlight team!

Portlight continues its Haiti response
Ready or not, the rainy season is here for Haiti. Portlight has done a tremendous amount to help the Haitians get ready for the upcoming hurricane season, as detailed in the Haitian Relief Recap blog post made last week. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to Portlight's efforts in Haiti.


Figure 5. A portion of the 30,000 pounds of rice donated to Haitian earthquake victims by Portlight earlier this month, shipped via the schooner Halie and Mathew.

I'll be back Wednesday afternoon with an analysis of the new Colorado State University hurricane forecast issued by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, due out on June 2.

Jeff Masters

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1674. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 007
WTIO31 PGTW 020900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 17.7N 60.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 60.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.3N 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.0N 59.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.0N 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 21.0N 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 22.7N 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 25.3N 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 28.6N 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 60.5E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN
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----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 JUN 2010 Time : 080000 UTC
Lat : 17:55:40 N Lon : 60:34:31 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 932.6mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.0 6.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -46.6C Cloud Region Temp : -74.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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1672. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
The advisory is in the text tab at FMNOC.
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
oh ya. The JTWC 0900 AM advisory is showing 140 kts in the outlook forecast.


Is there an advisory at 0900? I don't see it in the web
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The eye of PHET is bigger and bigger.
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1669. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
oh ya. The JTWC 0900 AM advisory is showing 140 kts in the outlook forecast.
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Quoting torreoviedo:
PHET, by FNMOC. PHET is a Cat. 3

03A.PHET.110kts.941mb.17.7N.60.6E


Hello, yes it is and forecast say CAT4 in the next 24hours, looking maps of emmanuel max winds potencial around 140-150kts, expected to get around 115-130kts.
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PHET, by FNMOC. PHET is a Cat. 3

03A.PHET.110kts.941mb.17.7N.60.6E
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1665. xcool
i'm going bed
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Cyclone PHET CAT2
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1663. xcool
lmao
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1661. xcool
cmc show 000
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LAST BULLETIN RMSC



ARB 02/2010/13 Dated: 02.06.2010

Time of issue: 1100 hours IST



Sub: Severe cyclonic storm, ‘PHET’ over westcentral Arabian Sea.



The severe cyclonic storm, “PHET” over westcentral & adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea moved west-northwestward and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, 02nd June 2010 over westcentral Arabian sea near latitude 17.50N and long. 61.00E, about 1200 km west-southwest of Mumbai, 1060 km southwest of Naliya (Kutch, Gujarat), 1100 km southwest of Karachi (Pakistan) and 600 km south-southeast of Sur (Oman).



The current environmental condition and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system would intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm and move slowly in a north-northwesterly/northerly direction for next 24 hours close to Oman coast and then recurve northeastwards towards Pakistan & adjoining Gujarat coast, skirting Oman coast.



Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given below:



Date/Time(IST)
Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)

02-06-2010/0830
17.5/61.0
110-120 gusting to 130

02-06-2010/1130
18.0/60.5
120-130 gusting to 140

02-06-2010/1730
18.5/60.0
130-140 gusting to 150

02-06-2010/2330
19.0/59.5
140-150 gusting to 165

03-06-2010/0530
19.5/59.5
150-160 gusting to 175

03-06-2010/1730
20.5/59.5
170-190 gusting to 205

04-06-2010/0530
22.5/60.5
210-220 gusting to 235

04-06-.2010/1730
23.5/63.5
210-220 gusting to 235

05-06-.2010/0530
24.5/66.5
200-210 gusting to 225


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1655. xcool
weak low
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1650. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
hmm 115 knots is Category 4 according to my 10min/3min/1min intensity charts.

Dvorak: T6.0
IMD Intensity: 115
NHC Intensity: 115-130 kt
SSHS Intensity: Category 4
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1649. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number THIRTEEN
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHET (ARB02-2010)
8:30 AM IST June 2 2010
=======================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Cyclonic Storm Phet over west central and adjoining east central Arabian Sea moved west northwest and lays centered near 17.5N 61.0E, or about 1200 kms west southwest of Mumbai, 1060 kms southwest of Naliya, 1100 kms southwest of Karachi, Pakistan, and 600 kms south southeast of Sur, Oman.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 60 knots with a central pressure of 985 hPa. The state of the sea is very high to phenomenal around the system's center.

Satellite imagery indicates ragged eye of the system. The diameter of the eye of the system is about 20 km. The eye temperature is -59C. The intensity of the system is T3.5. Associated broken/solid intense to very intense convection observed over the area is 14.0N to 20.0N and 56.0E to 63.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -80C in association with the system.

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is between 5-15 knots. The system lies to the south of tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 20.0N over the region. The relatively vorticity at 850 HPA level and upper level divergence are favorable for intensification.

The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system would intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm and move slowly north northwesterly/northerly direction for next 24 hours close to Oman coast and then recurve northeastward towards Pakistan and adjoining Gujarat coast under the influence of the approaching trough in mid-latitude westerlies to 500 HPA level.

Gale wind with speed of 35-40 knots gusting to 45 knots would commence along and off Oman coast by this evening. It is likely to increase gradually becoming 90-105 knots by Thurday and 115-120 knots by Friday morning. Sea surface conditions will be very high to phenomenal along and off Oman coast.

Forecast and Intensity
==========================
9 HRS: 18.5N 60.0E - 70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS: 19.5N 59.5E - 80 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
45 HRS: 22.5N 60.5E - 115 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
69 HRS: 24.5N 66.5E - 110 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)

---
they really changed the forecast outlook
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Quoting WxTracker15:
12z ecmwf looks like it have something at the end coming off of africa


No, thats upper level... if there was something coming off of africa, I would look for ripples in the isobars, which there are none here.
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1647. xcool
btwntx08 YEAH GFS TOO AND NGP
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1644. kingy
lol
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1643. xcool
ALOT ROB
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1642. kingy
Quoting btwntx08:
ok what i miss lol


nothing to lol about bro, the riser is coming off and you took your eye off the ball.
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1641. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
LOL you're not going to like my next post then Claudette.

here comes the big difference from JTWC and RSMC advisory at the same time period.
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Quoting kingy:
riser will be chopped off soon.....


I can't tell, wish they would zoom back out.
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


T4.0 Dvorak intensity (at least they see an eye now) =)

VERY Severe Cyclonic Storm Phet from the RSMC estimated intensity 65-70 knots.

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Still waiting for the 3:00 AM UTC advisory.. It's almost 7:00 AM UTC now. =P




RSMC when was CAT1 say 35kts and is at least 90kts say 65knts, this is not 65kts cyclone. Is a CAT2 increasing to a major.
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1636. kingy
Quoting jscs:


Hey means 'hey' (hello). Everywhere, including my entire of living in the US.


yeah but what do you know about anything OUTSIDE of US, thats my point
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1635. kingy
riser will be chopped off soon.....
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well im out for the night
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1633. xcool



NEW .SHOW
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12z ecmwf looks like it have something at the end coming off of africa
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1631. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


T4.0 Dvorak intensity (at least they see an eye now) =)

VERY Severe Cyclonic Storm Phet from the RSMC estimated intensity 65-70 knots.

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Still waiting for the 3:00 AM UTC advisory.. It's almost 7:00 AM UTC now. =P
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Anyone home?
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1627. xcool
i'm justing wait for ECMWF,models
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Quoting TropicalWave:
hello

hellooooo
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1624. xcool
TropicalWave heyyy
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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