The hurricane season of 2010 arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2010

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The hurricane season of 2010 is upon us. With unprecedented sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, El Niño gone and possibly transitioning to La Niña, a massive oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico, a million earthquake refugees in Haiti at the mercy of a hurricane strike, and an ever-increasing number of people living on our coasts, the arrival of this year's hurricane season comes with an unusually ominous tone. NOAA is forecasting a very active and possibly hyperactive season, and Dr. Bill Gray has said he expects "a hell of a year." However, our ability to forecast hurricane activity months in advance is limited, and we don't yet know how the large scale weather patterns like the Bermuda High will set up during the peak part of hurricane season. In particular, I very much doubt that we are in for a repeat of the unprecedented violence of the Hurricane Season of 2005, with its 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes. While sea surface temperatures are currently warmer this year than in 2005, that year featured some very unusual atmospheric circulation patterns, with a very strong ridge of high pressure over the eastern U.S., record drought in the Amazon, and very low surface pressures over the Atlantic. A repeat of 2005's weather patterns is unlikely, though I am expecting we will get at least four major hurricanes this year. An average year sees just two major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Tracks of all June tropical storms and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, 1995 - 2009. Allison was a subtropical storm (coded blue). Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

The latest long-range computer model guidance suggests there's no reason to suspect that the first two weeks of this year's hurricane season will bring any unusual activity. Climatologically, June is typically the quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season. On average, we see only one named storm every two years in June. Only one major hurricane has made landfall in June--Category 4 Hurricane Audrey of 1957, which struck the Texas/Louisiana border area on June 27 of that year, killing 550. The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. In the fifteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been eleven June named storms (if we include 2008's Tropical Storm Arthur, which really formed on May 31). Five tropical storms have formed in the first half of June in that 14-year period, giving a historical 36% chance of a first-half-of-June named storm. Five June storms in the past 14 years have passed close enough to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill location to have caused significant transport had there been an oil slick on the surface.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are at record high levels over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America this year (Figure 2). As I discussed in my May 15 post, the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Central America (20°W - 80°W), is called the Main Development Region (MDR) because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were an eye-opening 1.46°C above average during April. This is the third straight record warm month, and the warmest anomaly measured for any month--by a remarkable 0.2°C. The previous record warmest anomalies for the Atlantic MDR were set in June 2005 and March 2010, at 1.26°C. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs. The AO and NAO are climate patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean related to fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores-Bermuda High. If the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), this creates a weak Azores-Bermuda High, which reduces the trade winds circulating around the High. During December - February, we had the most negative AO/NAO since records began in 1950, and this caused trade winds between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the hurricane Main Development Region to slow to 1 - 2 m/s (2.2 - 4.5 mph) below average. Slower trade winds mean less mixing of the surface waters with cooler waters down deep, plus less evaporational cooling of the surface water. As a result, the ocean heated up significantly, relative to normal, over the winter and Spring.

However, over the past two weeks, the AO/NAO has trended close to average, and trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to near normal speeds as the Bermuda-Azores High has strengthened. SST anomalies have been falling in recent weeks, and will continue to fall in the coming two weeks, based on the latest forecast from the GFS model. While I expect that record SSTs will continue into mid-June, current trends suggest that by July, SST anomalies will be close to what they were in 2005. SST anomalies in the MDR could fall below the record 2005 levels by the peak part of hurricane season, August - October. Even so, SSTs in the Caribbean this year will be plenty warm to cause an abnormal number of major hurricanes. These warm SSTs may also cause extensive damage to the coral reefs, which suffered huge die-offs from the record SSTs of 2005.

Typically, June storms only form over the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Gulf Stream waters just offshore Florida, where water temperatures are warmest. SSTs are 28 - 30°C in these regions, which is about 0.5 - 1.5°C above average for this time of year. June storms typically form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance. African tropical waves, which serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes, are usually too far south in June to trigger tropical storm formation. Every so often, a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa moves far enough north to act as a seed for a June tropical storm. This was the case for Arthur of 2008 (which also had major help from the spinning remnants of the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Alma). Another way to get Atlantic June storms is for a disturbed weather area in the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to push north into the Western Caribbean and spawn a storm there. This was the case for Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006 (which may have also had help from an African wave). SSTs are too cold in June to allow storms to develop between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands--there has only been once such development in the historical record--Ana of 1979.


Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for May 31, 2010. SSTs averaged more that 1°C above average over the entire tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Note the large region of below average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, signaling the possible start of an La Niña episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream's band of strong high-altitude winds is the main source of wind shear in June over the Atlantic hurricane breeding grounds, since the jet is very active and located quite far south this time of year.

The jet stream over the past few weeks has been locked into a pattern where a southern branch (the subtropical jet stream) brings high wind shear over the Caribbean, and a northern branch (the polar jet stream) brings high wind shear offshore of New England. This leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches off the coast of North Carolina, which is where Invest 90L formed.

The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming ten days (Figure 3.) This means that the waters offshore of North Carolina is the most likely place for a tropical storm to form during this period, though the southwestern Caribbean will at times have shear low enough to allow tropical storm formation. The Gulf of Mexico is forecast to have wind shear too high to support a tropical storm during the first half of June. None of our reliable forecast models call for tropical storm formation over the coming 7 days, though the NOGAPS model indicates the possibility of a tropical disturbance forming off the coast of Nicaragua on Friday.


Figure 3. Wind shear forecast from the 00Z GMT June 1, 2010 run of the GFS model for June 7. Currently, the polar jet stream is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore New England, and the subtropical jet is bringing high wind shear to the northern Caribbean. This leaves the waters off the coast of North Carolina and southern Caribbean under low shear, making these areas the most favored region for tropical storm formation over the next 7 - 10 days. Wind speeds are given in m/s; multiply by two to get a rough conversion to knots. Thus, the red regions of low shear range from 0 - 16 knots.

Dry air and African dust
It's too early to concern ourselves with dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, since these dust outbreaks don't make it all the way to the June tropical cyclone breeding grounds in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Developing storms do have to contend with dry air from Canada moving off the U.S. coast; this was a key reason why our first "Invest" of the year, 90L off the coast of South Carolina, never became a subtropical storm.

Dust expert Professor Amato Evan of the University of Virginia has posted his forecast for African dust for the 2010 hurricane season. Dr. Evan is predicting that due to plentiful rains during last year's rainy season over the Sahel region of Africa, and near average amounts of African dust observed in May 2010 and during the 2009 hurricane season, we can expect near average or moderately below average levels of dust over the tropical Atlantic during the 2010 hurricane season.

Steering currents
The forecast steering current pattern over the next two weeks is a typical one for June, with an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs will be frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2009 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, that steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary
Wind shear over the main breeding grounds for June tropical cyclones, the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean, is expected to be high enough over the next two weeks to give us an average chance of a June named storm. I give a 30% chance of a named storm between now and June 15, and a 60% chance for the entire month of June. There is approximately a 30% chance of a June storm passing close enough to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill to cause significant transport of the oil. See my post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, for more information on this.

Agatha the 6th deadliest Eastern Pacific storm on record
Central America's Tropical Storm Agatha is now the 6th deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones on record. Agatha was a tropical storm for just 12 hours, making landfall Saturday on the Pacific coast of Guatemala as a 45 mph tropical storm. However, the storm brought huge amounts of rain--as much as 36 inches--to the high mountains of Guatemala. So far, flooding and landslides have killed at least 123 people in Guatemala, with 59 others missing. The storm also killed 9 in neighboring El Salvador, and 14 in Honduras.


Figure 4. Journey to the center of the Earth: a massive sinkhole 200 feet (60 meters) deep opened up in the capital, Guatemala City, after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. How are they going to fix this hole? Wow! It doesn't even look real.

Guatemala's worst flooding disaster in recent history was due to Hurricane Stan of 2005, which killed 1,513. The deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record for Guatemala was Hurricane Paul of 1982, which made landfall in Guatemala as a tropical depression. Flooding from Paul's rains killed 620 people in Guatemala.

Oil spill update
Light onshore winds out of the south to southwest are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico all week, resulting increased threats of oil to the Alabama and Mississippi barrier islands, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These persistent southwesterly winds will likely bring oil very close to the Florida Panhandle by Saturday.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Today, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays during hurricane season. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season

I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Portlight receives a major grant to fund U.S. disaster relief work
The Christopher and Dana Reeve Foundation has announced today that it is awarding a Quality of Life Grant in the amount of $21,500 to Portlight Strategies, Inc. The grant will fund a ready-to-deploy container specifically outfitted to serve the immediate needs of people with disabilities in the aftermath of hurricanes and other domestic natural disasters. To read more about this award, check out the Portlight blog. Congratulations, Portlight team!

Portlight continues its Haiti response
Ready or not, the rainy season is here for Haiti. Portlight has done a tremendous amount to help the Haitians get ready for the upcoming hurricane season, as detailed in the Haitian Relief Recap blog post made last week. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to Portlight's efforts in Haiti.


Figure 5. A portion of the 30,000 pounds of rice donated to Haitian earthquake victims by Portlight earlier this month, shipped via the schooner Halie and Mathew.

I'll be back Wednesday afternoon with an analysis of the new Colorado State University hurricane forecast issued by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, due out on June 2.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting twhcracker:


oh wow i was just noticing the love bugs are almost nonexistent this year! and the hummingbirds, where the heck are they??

I also agree we have had very few this year too. I mean I have always had to wash my truck 3 times aweek because of them and there was none to wash..... WOW

Taco :o)
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58. catastropheadjuster

Positive anomalies indicate unfavorable conditions for precipitation
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Quoting masonsnana:
I figured thats why you asked, lol
Sorry, no Want to know what the folklore really is. And I have only gotten 1 hummingbird here and she only stayed for 2 days.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting msgambler:
I have a question for everyone. Had a discussion about this with friends and want everyones opinion. What is the folklore on lovebugs and hurricane season? I keep hearing the less bugs the more active and then someone thell me the other way around.


I would like to know that answer to. It's about like the ants come winter time if there mound is real big you know it's gonna be a cold winter. It's a old wise saying but I think it's true. But does anyone know about the love bugs. I know after Hurricane Ivan they where Horrible.
sheri
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Quoting reedzone:
"this was a key reason why our first "Invest" of the year, 90L off the coast of South Carolina, never became a subtropical storm."

With all do respect Dr. Masters, this was 91L, no 90L.



??? What are you talking about? 90L is the only invest we have had so far
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Quoting twhcracker:


oh wow i was just noticing the love bugs are almost nonexistent this year! and the hummingbirds, where the heck are they??


They dont show up to Later in the Season,..Aug-Sept...,least here anyway.

Dem Lub bugs

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Quoting twhcracker:
i think that hole is gonna work out great for the guatamala city. from now on when people develop they can just have the stormwater designed to go toward the giant hole and no one will have to worry about engineering for stormwater retention again. gosh that would be every citys dream! The city of marianna fl has one of those, but small. there is a hole in the middle of town where all the stormwater goes and no one knows where it ends up. they have put dye in it several times and the dye never surfaces. so all the stormwater probably goes rigt into the floridan aquifer :)

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Quoting msgambler:
I have a question for everyone. Had a discussion about this with friends and want everyones opinion. What is the folklore on lovebugs and hurricane season? I keep hearing the less bugs the more active and then someone thell me the other way around.


oh wow i was just noticing the love bugs are almost nonexistent this year! and the hummingbirds, where the heck are they??
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Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, June 1st
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Quoting msgambler:
LOL I know that mosonsmom....Thanks
I figured thats why you asked, lol
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My bad.. Thought he was talking about 2009, carry on..

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LOL I know that mosonsmom....Thanks
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
i think that hole is gonna work out great for the guatamala city. from now on when people develop they can just have the stormwater designed to go toward the giant hole and no one will have to worry about engineering for stormwater retention again. gosh that would be every citys dream! The city of marianna fl has one of those, but small. there is a hole in the middle of town where all the stormwater goes and no one knows where it ends up. they have put dye in it several times and the dye never surfaces. so all the stormwater probably goes rigt into the floridan aquifer :)
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Quoting msgambler:
I have a question for everyone. Had a discussion about this with friends and want everyones opinion. What is the folklore on lovebugs and hurricane season? I keep hearing the less bugs the more active and then someone thell me the other way around.
No lovebugs this year!
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I just talked to my son he's in Grand Isle,LA( I think I spelled that right) working and help building The floating hotels and stuff for the workers and clean up crews. He said he help with the thing I think he called it the Top Hat he was breaking up. What ever that thing is there gonna use after they cut the pipe. He said he's working from 4am til 11pm then driving a hour and half back to the bunk house. He said it's very hot and tired not getting much sleep. Of course I'm his mom and I am worried about him. But he's young. i just thought i would let you all know what he was doing over there.

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
International group from HPC is forecasting MJO to be positive (supressed convection) for most of June in the Carribean.

Excerpt:
THIS COINCIDES WITH ARRIVAL OF POSITIVE MJO ANOMALIES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA LATER THIS WEEK...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO DOMINATE DURING MOST OF THE MONTH OF JUNE.

Link



I have forgot what does a positive MJO mean?
TIA,
Sheri
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Spinning Globe Composite

Rotating Globe Movie
Updated every three hours.

These MPEG movies show weather systems over a rotating globe. They are created by combining data from 5 geostationary orbiting satellites (GOES-East, GOES-West, Meteosat at 0, Meteosat at 63E, and MTSAT), polar orbiting satellites and a topographic map of the Earth. Get more information about playing MPEG movies.
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Quoting mikatnight:


So too it seems would be your original statement. As far as what to expect this year? The usual: The Unexpected.

LOL
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I have a question for everyone. Had a discussion about this with friends and want everyones opinion. What is the folklore on lovebugs and hurricane season? I keep hearing the less bugs the more active and then someone thell me the other way around.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Thanks NRT.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

That would be correct.


So too it seems would be your original statement. As far as what to expect this year? The usual: The Unexpected.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting wadedanielsmith:
24:

It's called insurance scams 101...

Welcome to America.

Welcome to capitalism.


Homeowners insurance only covers homes damaged for no reason whatsoever, whereas if there was an actual disaster, you must have a seperate policy for each possible disaster or OF COURSE the specific one that actually happened doesn't cover it... "I see no evidence of wind damage here. This was caused by a flood..." (camera pans to rooftop in tree tops).


You're speaking in generalizations...Hurricanes are generally covered under "Wind Event"; the language that excludes storm surge as flooding is quite specific. Those that have the biggest problems and try to "lawyer up" after a sotrm are genertally those that:

A. Live in a flood prone area (coastal regions, river bottom areas)

B. Have no flood insurance, despite "A" being true

Thye issue here is that no bank will give a loan on a house in an "A" flood zone without having flood coverage so those that don't have coverage are those that own their homes and wanted to save a ew dollars on INS premium...

Then there are those like the folks in coastal MS and were told by their agents that they didn't need flood coverage...I can think of half a dozen or so agents that mis-advised their clients prior to Katrina. One guy had dropped his flood insurance on the 20th of August, 2005 at the direction of his agent
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A great article on the GOM "Mother of all gushers"
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guys lets talk about soon to be 91 L
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1386
Quoting CycloneOz:


Yeah...and it gives VerizonWireless a year to get some of these areas lit up with 3G Broadband.

This "NationalAccess" baloney doesn't cut it for streaming video!

Luckily, the entire U.S. coastline is lit up with 3G Broadband, and since hurricanes do their thing along the coast, we'll be okay for my leg of this journey "into hell!" (paraphrasing Dr. Gray.)


Just want you to remember that if you need a place to crash for a nite or too, hit me up...

Taco :o)
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Quoting Floodman:


I don't know about Mississippi (though the additional rider sounds about right) but in Louisiana after Rita there were properties in Cameron Parish that were sealed by the EPA due to chemical waste deposition during the storm; the carrier covered all the expenses with the exception of the waste removal and site clean up which was handled by the company whose waste it was
Thanks Flood, I'm gonna talk to my agent and see if she tries to sell me a policy...I'll get back to ya let ya know her spiel.
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46. CJ5
Quoting wadedanielsmith:
24:

It's called insurance scams 101...

Welcome to America.

Welcome to capitalism.


blah..blah..blah.


I wouldn't call it a scam. You don't have to buy the product and if you do, you should be educated enough to read what is covered. Insurance is like gambling, you purchase the product as a hedge against future loss. Simple as that.
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We need one of these to spring up very close the the GOM oil well.
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Quoting fireflymom:
Will that sink hole fill with water eventually? It does not look like a natural occurrence, it looks so symmetrical it appears to be a man made hole, very well like.


When I first saw it last night posted on the blog, I thought it was photoshopped. Thought it was some sort of joke, but knew the poster wouldn't do that. Still had to look it up to prove it to myself. A real mindblower considering everything else.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Quoting mikatnight:




Andrew and Betsy formed in August. I believe Aussie was refering to time not names.

That would be correct.
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Quoting tkeith:
Just heard something interesting on the radio. The announcer said Mississippi Insurance commisioner stated yesterday that, If the oil in the Gulf was dispersed over land during a Hurricane you would need a seperate ryder for that (pollution ryder) on your policy...

Anyone know anything about this?


Here is one article.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Wow. that's a lot of change in a few weeks.
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Will that sink hole fill with water eventually? It does not look like a natural occurrence, it looks so symmetrical it appears to be a man made hole, very well like.
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It looks like that is the second massive sinkhole in Guatemala City. One formed in 2007 that was caused by a leaky sewer pipe where the wastewater interacted chemically with the soil dissolving it. So, since it happened before, I'm sure the storm was not main trigger of that enormous hole....
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Quoting tkeith:
Just heard something interesting on the radio. The announcer said Mississippi Insurance commisioner stated yesterday that, If the oil in the Gulf was dispersed over land during a Hurricane you would need a seperate ryder for that (pollution ryder) on your policy...

Anyone know anything about this?


I don't know about Mississippi (though the additional rider sounds about right) but in Louisiana after Rita there were properties in Cameron Parish that were sealed by the EPA due to chemical waste deposition during the storm; the carrier covered all the expenses with the exception of the waste removal and site clean up which was handled by the company whose waste it was
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I wasn't trying to start an argument wade. Just trying to make sure you knew Camille was in August.....LOL
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting AussieStorm:
From previous blog.
2009. mikatnight 12:53 AM EST on June 02, 2010 Hide this comment.
Mornin'...er, Evening...ah, G'day Aussie!

G'day Mate!!!, How's things in your part of the tiny blue planet.


Would I be right in saying that early season storms don't pack as much punch/strength. What factors this year ,if any, could make a difference?


Quoting wadedanielsmith:
AussieStorm:


NOpe, you would not be right.

Several "A" storms are retired for the atlantic basin. Most notably Audrey and Andrew.

And then there's this...


Betsy (first billion + storm)
Camille


So obviously being "early" in the season is no indicator.


Andrew and Betsy formed in August. I believe Aussie was refering to time not names.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Some people up north look at woolly caterpillars and predict severity of winter. I count the # of migrating ducklings I see around here to give me a feel for hurricane season. Last year I saw one duckling, this season 12! Let's see what that means!!!
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Quoting CycloneOz:


Yeah...we were early birds into that part of the country....pity.

They got a nice one! :)

Hope everything is nominal. And thanks for the "man-hug!" :D


It's all good.... I'm glad to be home was a long trip. But I have to say I had a chance to chase a storm in Houston TX when I was there and just could not get close enough to see because of all the trees.... That was on Friday afternoon.... which had a lot of hail and wind but just to many trees if you know what I mean....

I did want to tell you though, "You made a big Hit on the Boss"..... Very well organized and she told me that we will be better next year. With out AT&T if you know what I mean....

Taco :o)
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Quoting tkeith:
Just heard something interesting on the radio. The announcer said Mississippi Insurance commisioner stated yesterday that, If the oil in the Gulf was dispersed over land during a Hurricane you would need a seperate ryder for that (pollution ryder) on your policy...

Anyone know anything about this?

That wouldn't surprise me. Your insurance is way more complicated than ours here. Comprehensive/all inclusive, Not basic plus extra's.
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Quoting wadedanielsmith:
AussieStorm:


NOpe, you would not be right.

Several "A" storms are retired for the atlantic basin. Most notably Audrey and Andrew.

And then there's this...


Betsy (first billion + storm)
Camille


So obviously being "early" in the season is no indicator.
Camille was not an early season storm.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Quoting wadedanielsmith:
AussieStorm:


NOpe, you would not be right.

Several "A" storms are retired for the atlantic basin. Most notably Audrey and Andrew.

And then there's this...


Betsy (first billion + storm)
Camille


So obviously being "early" in the season is no indicator.

Sorry, I was going by the above graph in the Dr's Blog post.
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It has gotten VERY DARK down there since the cut!
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Quoting jojotown:
Any thoughts about effect of volcanic ash on hurricanes?


Ash in sufficient quantities and high enough in the atmosphere would cause cooling of the atmosphere, essentially limiting the fuel necessary for creating and maintaining hurricanes; the eruptions that are occurring and the eruption in Iceland wouldn't qualify for the cooling effect as the ash clouds were not copious enough nor were they high enough to initiate the cooling
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Just heard something interesting on the radio. The announcer said Mississippi Insurance commisioner stated yesterday that, If the oil in the Gulf was dispersed over land during a Hurricane you would need a seperate ryder for that (pollution ryder) on your policy...

Anyone know anything about this?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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