The hurricane season of 2010 arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2010

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The hurricane season of 2010 is upon us. With unprecedented sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, El Niño gone and possibly transitioning to La Niña, a massive oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico, a million earthquake refugees in Haiti at the mercy of a hurricane strike, and an ever-increasing number of people living on our coasts, the arrival of this year's hurricane season comes with an unusually ominous tone. NOAA is forecasting a very active and possibly hyperactive season, and Dr. Bill Gray has said he expects "a hell of a year." However, our ability to forecast hurricane activity months in advance is limited, and we don't yet know how the large scale weather patterns like the Bermuda High will set up during the peak part of hurricane season. In particular, I very much doubt that we are in for a repeat of the unprecedented violence of the Hurricane Season of 2005, with its 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes. While sea surface temperatures are currently warmer this year than in 2005, that year featured some very unusual atmospheric circulation patterns, with a very strong ridge of high pressure over the eastern U.S., record drought in the Amazon, and very low surface pressures over the Atlantic. A repeat of 2005's weather patterns is unlikely, though I am expecting we will get at least four major hurricanes this year. An average year sees just two major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Tracks of all June tropical storms and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, 1995 - 2009. Allison was a subtropical storm (coded blue). Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

The latest long-range computer model guidance suggests there's no reason to suspect that the first two weeks of this year's hurricane season will bring any unusual activity. Climatologically, June is typically the quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season. On average, we see only one named storm every two years in June. Only one major hurricane has made landfall in June--Category 4 Hurricane Audrey of 1957, which struck the Texas/Louisiana border area on June 27 of that year, killing 550. The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. In the fifteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been eleven June named storms (if we include 2008's Tropical Storm Arthur, which really formed on May 31). Five tropical storms have formed in the first half of June in that 14-year period, giving a historical 36% chance of a first-half-of-June named storm. Five June storms in the past 14 years have passed close enough to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill location to have caused significant transport had there been an oil slick on the surface.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are at record high levels over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America this year (Figure 2). As I discussed in my May 15 post, the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Central America (20°W - 80°W), is called the Main Development Region (MDR) because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were an eye-opening 1.46°C above average during April. This is the third straight record warm month, and the warmest anomaly measured for any month--by a remarkable 0.2°C. The previous record warmest anomalies for the Atlantic MDR were set in June 2005 and March 2010, at 1.26°C. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs. The AO and NAO are climate patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean related to fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores-Bermuda High. If the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), this creates a weak Azores-Bermuda High, which reduces the trade winds circulating around the High. During December - February, we had the most negative AO/NAO since records began in 1950, and this caused trade winds between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the hurricane Main Development Region to slow to 1 - 2 m/s (2.2 - 4.5 mph) below average. Slower trade winds mean less mixing of the surface waters with cooler waters down deep, plus less evaporational cooling of the surface water. As a result, the ocean heated up significantly, relative to normal, over the winter and Spring.

However, over the past two weeks, the AO/NAO has trended close to average, and trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to near normal speeds as the Bermuda-Azores High has strengthened. SST anomalies have been falling in recent weeks, and will continue to fall in the coming two weeks, based on the latest forecast from the GFS model. While I expect that record SSTs will continue into mid-June, current trends suggest that by July, SST anomalies will be close to what they were in 2005. SST anomalies in the MDR could fall below the record 2005 levels by the peak part of hurricane season, August - October. Even so, SSTs in the Caribbean this year will be plenty warm to cause an abnormal number of major hurricanes. These warm SSTs may also cause extensive damage to the coral reefs, which suffered huge die-offs from the record SSTs of 2005.

Typically, June storms only form over the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Gulf Stream waters just offshore Florida, where water temperatures are warmest. SSTs are 28 - 30°C in these regions, which is about 0.5 - 1.5°C above average for this time of year. June storms typically form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance. African tropical waves, which serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes, are usually too far south in June to trigger tropical storm formation. Every so often, a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa moves far enough north to act as a seed for a June tropical storm. This was the case for Arthur of 2008 (which also had major help from the spinning remnants of the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Alma). Another way to get Atlantic June storms is for a disturbed weather area in the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to push north into the Western Caribbean and spawn a storm there. This was the case for Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006 (which may have also had help from an African wave). SSTs are too cold in June to allow storms to develop between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands--there has only been once such development in the historical record--Ana of 1979.


Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for May 31, 2010. SSTs averaged more that 1°C above average over the entire tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Note the large region of below average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, signaling the possible start of an La Niña episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream's band of strong high-altitude winds is the main source of wind shear in June over the Atlantic hurricane breeding grounds, since the jet is very active and located quite far south this time of year.

The jet stream over the past few weeks has been locked into a pattern where a southern branch (the subtropical jet stream) brings high wind shear over the Caribbean, and a northern branch (the polar jet stream) brings high wind shear offshore of New England. This leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches off the coast of North Carolina, which is where Invest 90L formed.

The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming ten days (Figure 3.) This means that the waters offshore of North Carolina is the most likely place for a tropical storm to form during this period, though the southwestern Caribbean will at times have shear low enough to allow tropical storm formation. The Gulf of Mexico is forecast to have wind shear too high to support a tropical storm during the first half of June. None of our reliable forecast models call for tropical storm formation over the coming 7 days, though the NOGAPS model indicates the possibility of a tropical disturbance forming off the coast of Nicaragua on Friday.


Figure 3. Wind shear forecast from the 00Z GMT June 1, 2010 run of the GFS model for June 7. Currently, the polar jet stream is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore New England, and the subtropical jet is bringing high wind shear to the northern Caribbean. This leaves the waters off the coast of North Carolina and southern Caribbean under low shear, making these areas the most favored region for tropical storm formation over the next 7 - 10 days. Wind speeds are given in m/s; multiply by two to get a rough conversion to knots. Thus, the red regions of low shear range from 0 - 16 knots.

Dry air and African dust
It's too early to concern ourselves with dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, since these dust outbreaks don't make it all the way to the June tropical cyclone breeding grounds in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Developing storms do have to contend with dry air from Canada moving off the U.S. coast; this was a key reason why our first "Invest" of the year, 90L off the coast of South Carolina, never became a subtropical storm.

Dust expert Professor Amato Evan of the University of Virginia has posted his forecast for African dust for the 2010 hurricane season. Dr. Evan is predicting that due to plentiful rains during last year's rainy season over the Sahel region of Africa, and near average amounts of African dust observed in May 2010 and during the 2009 hurricane season, we can expect near average or moderately below average levels of dust over the tropical Atlantic during the 2010 hurricane season.

Steering currents
The forecast steering current pattern over the next two weeks is a typical one for June, with an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs will be frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2009 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, that steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary
Wind shear over the main breeding grounds for June tropical cyclones, the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean, is expected to be high enough over the next two weeks to give us an average chance of a June named storm. I give a 30% chance of a named storm between now and June 15, and a 60% chance for the entire month of June. There is approximately a 30% chance of a June storm passing close enough to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill to cause significant transport of the oil. See my post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, for more information on this.

Agatha the 6th deadliest Eastern Pacific storm on record
Central America's Tropical Storm Agatha is now the 6th deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones on record. Agatha was a tropical storm for just 12 hours, making landfall Saturday on the Pacific coast of Guatemala as a 45 mph tropical storm. However, the storm brought huge amounts of rain--as much as 36 inches--to the high mountains of Guatemala. So far, flooding and landslides have killed at least 123 people in Guatemala, with 59 others missing. The storm also killed 9 in neighboring El Salvador, and 14 in Honduras.


Figure 4. Journey to the center of the Earth: a massive sinkhole 200 feet (60 meters) deep opened up in the capital, Guatemala City, after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. How are they going to fix this hole? Wow! It doesn't even look real.

Guatemala's worst flooding disaster in recent history was due to Hurricane Stan of 2005, which killed 1,513. The deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record for Guatemala was Hurricane Paul of 1982, which made landfall in Guatemala as a tropical depression. Flooding from Paul's rains killed 620 people in Guatemala.

Oil spill update
Light onshore winds out of the south to southwest are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico all week, resulting increased threats of oil to the Alabama and Mississippi barrier islands, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These persistent southwesterly winds will likely bring oil very close to the Florida Panhandle by Saturday.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Today, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays during hurricane season. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season

I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Portlight receives a major grant to fund U.S. disaster relief work
The Christopher and Dana Reeve Foundation has announced today that it is awarding a Quality of Life Grant in the amount of $21,500 to Portlight Strategies, Inc. The grant will fund a ready-to-deploy container specifically outfitted to serve the immediate needs of people with disabilities in the aftermath of hurricanes and other domestic natural disasters. To read more about this award, check out the Portlight blog. Congratulations, Portlight team!

Portlight continues its Haiti response
Ready or not, the rainy season is here for Haiti. Portlight has done a tremendous amount to help the Haitians get ready for the upcoming hurricane season, as detailed in the Haitian Relief Recap blog post made last week. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to Portlight's efforts in Haiti.


Figure 5. A portion of the 30,000 pounds of rice donated to Haitian earthquake victims by Portlight earlier this month, shipped via the schooner Halie and Mathew.

I'll be back Wednesday afternoon with an analysis of the new Colorado State University hurricane forecast issued by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, due out on June 2.

Jeff Masters

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Just curious about what Joe B w/accu weather is saying about this years hurricane season? For some reason there is not any detailed video online.
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WARNING WARNING WARNING WARNING
NEWS UPDATE FROM CAYMAN HURRICANE CENTER
WE HAVE INVEST 91L!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

DATA AS FOLLOWS

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al912010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201006011653
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 91, 2010, DB, O, 2010060112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL912010
AL, 91, 2010053118, , BEST, 0, 185N, 865W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010060100, , BEST, 0, 187N, 863W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010060106, , BEST, 0, 189N, 862W, 25, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 91, 2010060112, , BEST, 0, 190N, 860W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

ALSO VERY NEW WE ALSO HAVE ANOTHER INVEST
INVEST 81L

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al812010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201006011537
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
NONAME, AL, L, , , , , 81, 2010, TD, O, 2010060112, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL812010
AL, 81, 2010060100, , BEST, 0, 229N, 587W, 25, 1009, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 81, 2010060106, , BEST, 0, 240N, 594W, 25, 1009, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 81, 2010060112, , BEST, 0, 250N, 600W, 25, 1007, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NONAME, D,


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171. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 91 2010060112 BEST 0 190N 860W 25 1009 DB


91L!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
It looks like they are having some trouble shearing off that riser.
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168. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting mikatnight:
From the Good Doctor's Blog (August 17, 2008) no less:

Fay strengthening south of Cuba; and, the sea turtle forecast for Fay

Have to get Dr. M to post his Turtle Forecast...


With the oil in the path of the turtles this year, I'd say the turtle forecast needs to be thrown out the window...

Jeff Masters


INV/91/XL
MARK
19.1N/86.2W
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 91 2010060112 BEST 0 190N 860W 25 1009 DB


Really?

I guess we have 91L.
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Quoting mikatnight:


Rule of Thumb: If ya think ya gotta use a bomb to fix it, then you might not be thinking the situation all the way through.


One to live by!
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06/01/2010 04:53PM invest_al912010.invest
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Quoting BradentonBrew:


English pls?
we may have a disturbance tropical
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 91 2010060112 BEST 0 190N 860W 25 1009 DB


English pls?
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It's a nice looking blob, that's for sure.
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Perhaps a brief window of opportunity...

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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 91 2010060112 BEST 0 190N 860W 25 1009 DB


Seriously?
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 91 2010060112 BEST 0 190N 860W 25 1009 DB


Wow
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AL 91 2010060112 BEST 0 190N 860W 25 1009 DB
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Always remember that this well in the gulf is a tapered string...meaning that the pipe starts at 36 inches and tapers down to to 7 inches at 18300 ft. all diameters of pipe come all the way back to the surface..so you end up with at least 14 pices of pipe that are inside one another..average pipe thickness is 1 inch. I worked on these rigs for over 6 years, They are taking a gambel cutting the lower pakage.If the BOP is to far damaged it is possible for it to loose what little containment it has and the full force of the well will then be unleashed.
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Rotating Globe Movie
Updated every three hours.



These MPEG movies show weather systems over a rotating globe. They are created by combining data from 5 geostationary orbiting satellites (GOES-East, GOES-West, Meteosat at 0, Meteosat at 63E, and MTSAT), polar orbiting satellites and a topographic map of the Earth. Get more information about playing MPEG movies.
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Short horror film

Queue the background music - shark music from Jaws.. dawn up, dawn up... then screeching sounds from an Alfred Hitchcock movie...

Suddenly LARGE letters start flashing...

HURRICANE SEASON HAS BEGUN!!!!

Queue deranged laughter.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Want to see sink hole heaven, if you have google earth, put in Avon Park , Florida.
This is what you will see.

They are all water filled sink holes.


Definitely. All of Central Florida really. I was coming back from Gainesville one time, and a huge sinkhole opened up right along the highway. Its not a lake now, but there are plenty of trees.

Heck, the whole drive from Orlando to Ocala on the Turnpike is very pretty (minus the traffic).

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149. 900MB
Quoting twhcracker:


i still believe they are trying to save the oil, not the gulf, and nothing can convince me otherwise.

No doubt! This whole "clean-up effort" is a sham and totally geared to saving the oil. You are 100% right!
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KOTG, I don't see much sheer with that blob down there.
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http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com/go/site/2931/
Latest Information

National Incident Commander to provide Deepwater BP oil spill response operational update

Who: Adm. Thad Allen, National Incident Commander for Deepwater BP oil spill response

What: Media briefing to provide update on ongoing Deepwater BP oil spill response efforts

When: Today, June 1, 2010 at 1 p.m. EDT (noon CDT)


===================


Rear Adm. Landry to Resume Her Role as Coast Guard Eighth District Commander to Focus on Hurricane Readiness

ROBERT, La. - Rear Admiral Mary Landry, Federal On-Scene Coordinator for the BP oil spill response, will rotate back to her role as Commander of the Eighth Coast Guard District, June 1, to ensure continuity of leadership during the 2010 Hurricane Season.

Rear Admiral James Watson, who has been her deputy since April 23, will assume the role of Federal On-Scene Coordinator. Rear Admiral Ray Nash will assume duties as Deputy Federal On-Scene Coordinator.

“The plan for Rear Adm. Landry to return to her command of the Eighth District at the beginning of the hurricane season has been the strategy since the beginning of this response," said Admiral Robert Papp, commandant, U.S. Coast Guard. “It is critically important that she make sure the Eighth Coast Guard District forces are ready for a potentially busy hurricane season in the midst of this environmental disaster.”

...
The Eighth Coast Guard District, headquartered in New Orleans, covers all or part of 26 states throughout the Gulf Coast and Heartland of America. It stretches from the Appalachian Mountains and Chattahoochee River in the east, to the Rocky Mountains in the west, and from the U.S./Mexico border and the Gulf of Mexico to the Canadian border in North Dakota.
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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
441 AM EDT TUE JUN 1 2010

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-021100-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
441 AM EDT TUE JUN 1 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE.

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
TODAY. CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO THE STATE.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL... HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED STORM MAY BECOME SEVERE... PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. HOWEVER...MOST STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. LOCALLY-HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN ALREADY SATURATED GROUND
COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING ALONG FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

.DISCUSSION...
DAYTIME HEATING AND AN INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE MODERATE
INSTABILITIES ACROSS THE STATE AGAIN TODAY...WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES
OF 1500 TO 2500 AND LIFTED INDICES OF MINUS 2 TO MINUS 4 EXPECTED. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL COLLIDE AND HELP TRIGGER ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WEAK WIND
SHEAR PROFILES CONTINUE TO FAVOR PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
MOVEMENTS GENERALLY TO THE NORTHEAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
DUE TO THE ISOLATED AND PULSE NATURE OF POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB
BY GOING TO WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

$$


It feels like Florida here in central GA! Starting Sunday, afternoon thunderstorms (we already had a severe one with 60 mph winds and 1 inch hail) have been popping up each afternoon, and it looks like it's gonna keep going all week!
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Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS JUNE 01, 2010 ISSUED 12:20 P.M. PHTFC
Thank you StormW for update
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Hydraulic shear is doing its thing on the riser right now.
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Hello everyone,,,,

Just wanted to say hello and its that time again..... good luck!
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Many thanks to all of you!!!!!!!
Link
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Hey, they are starting to shear off the riser pipe.
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Quoting catastropheadjuster:


sorry about that, I was reading something else and it says turtle lay about every 2 yrs in TX they said right know there nest are everywhere. But haven't found nothing on Florida's turtles. I just thought it was kinds interesting. Not saying i am basing Hurricane season on it or nothing. But the turtles may know something we don't.
Sheri


Don't apologize. Sounds like you nailed it.
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love bugs, eh... just took the wiki crash course on em, sheesh! i shall thank the good graces of this northern climate such that we have none in MN!!
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Quoting mikatnight:
Oops! #115 beat me to it!


sorry about that, I was reading something else and it says turtle lay about every 2 yrs in TX they said right know there nest are everywhere. But haven't found nothing on Florida's turtles. I just thought it was kinds interesting. Not saying i am basing Hurricane season on it or nothing. But the turtles may know something we don't.
Sheri
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In 2005 our sea turtles moved their nests much higher up the beach... we didn't have the hits of 2004, but obviously the sea turtles learned...
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Link


We posted at the same time; you may be right there.......Thanks...... :)
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I know! We can ask him ourselves what the turtles are doing this afternoon on his first LIVE radio show! I've got my alarm set. Don't want to miss it.
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Here Ya Go Aussie:

Avon Park Air Force Range

Avon Park Air Force Range is a 106,000-acre bombing and gunnery range located in Polk and Highlands Counties, Florida. The Avon Park Air Force Range (APAFR), Operating Location Alpha (OL-A), is located approximately 100 miles east-southeast of MacDill AFB, FL.

Between 1946 and 1983, a total of 112,771.61 acres was disposed. The land excessed included a land skip bombing target, four practice bombing targets, two position firing courses, a formation bombing target and a practice and skip bombing target.


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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
89. AussieStorm 12:00 PM EDT on June 01, 2010

Avon Park is also the location of one of the US Air Force bombing practice ranges; just saying....Make sure we're looking at actual sinkholes, vs. former parts of the Air Force range (now developed) and that we're not looking at impact craters frm the bombs....... :)

Link
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yeah, they should have joined the army not the air force. We are a dapper bunch.
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The sea turtles that nest in Brevard County FL didn't get the word. There were a lot of nests in 2004 and we got initimate with Francis and Jeanne...
In 2008 the sea turtles in SE FL took a heavy hit from the nearby transit of Gustav...
Some years they luck out, some years they don't... but I wouldn't trust my life or belongings to them...
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Re-name Alex.


Supossedly, the name would be kept only if the low level circulation remain intact after crossing to another basin
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.