The hurricane season of 2010 arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2010

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The hurricane season of 2010 is upon us. With unprecedented sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, El Niño gone and possibly transitioning to La Niña, a massive oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico, a million earthquake refugees in Haiti at the mercy of a hurricane strike, and an ever-increasing number of people living on our coasts, the arrival of this year's hurricane season comes with an unusually ominous tone. NOAA is forecasting a very active and possibly hyperactive season, and Dr. Bill Gray has said he expects "a hell of a year." However, our ability to forecast hurricane activity months in advance is limited, and we don't yet know how the large scale weather patterns like the Bermuda High will set up during the peak part of hurricane season. In particular, I very much doubt that we are in for a repeat of the unprecedented violence of the Hurricane Season of 2005, with its 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes. While sea surface temperatures are currently warmer this year than in 2005, that year featured some very unusual atmospheric circulation patterns, with a very strong ridge of high pressure over the eastern U.S., record drought in the Amazon, and very low surface pressures over the Atlantic. A repeat of 2005's weather patterns is unlikely, though I am expecting we will get at least four major hurricanes this year. An average year sees just two major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Tracks of all June tropical storms and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, 1995 - 2009. Allison was a subtropical storm (coded blue). Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

The latest long-range computer model guidance suggests there's no reason to suspect that the first two weeks of this year's hurricane season will bring any unusual activity. Climatologically, June is typically the quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season. On average, we see only one named storm every two years in June. Only one major hurricane has made landfall in June--Category 4 Hurricane Audrey of 1957, which struck the Texas/Louisiana border area on June 27 of that year, killing 550. The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. In the fifteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been eleven June named storms (if we include 2008's Tropical Storm Arthur, which really formed on May 31). Five tropical storms have formed in the first half of June in that 14-year period, giving a historical 36% chance of a first-half-of-June named storm. Five June storms in the past 14 years have passed close enough to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill location to have caused significant transport had there been an oil slick on the surface.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are at record high levels over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America this year (Figure 2). As I discussed in my May 15 post, the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Central America (20°W - 80°W), is called the Main Development Region (MDR) because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were an eye-opening 1.46°C above average during April. This is the third straight record warm month, and the warmest anomaly measured for any month--by a remarkable 0.2°C. The previous record warmest anomalies for the Atlantic MDR were set in June 2005 and March 2010, at 1.26°C. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs. The AO and NAO are climate patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean related to fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores-Bermuda High. If the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), this creates a weak Azores-Bermuda High, which reduces the trade winds circulating around the High. During December - February, we had the most negative AO/NAO since records began in 1950, and this caused trade winds between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the hurricane Main Development Region to slow to 1 - 2 m/s (2.2 - 4.5 mph) below average. Slower trade winds mean less mixing of the surface waters with cooler waters down deep, plus less evaporational cooling of the surface water. As a result, the ocean heated up significantly, relative to normal, over the winter and Spring.

However, over the past two weeks, the AO/NAO has trended close to average, and trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to near normal speeds as the Bermuda-Azores High has strengthened. SST anomalies have been falling in recent weeks, and will continue to fall in the coming two weeks, based on the latest forecast from the GFS model. While I expect that record SSTs will continue into mid-June, current trends suggest that by July, SST anomalies will be close to what they were in 2005. SST anomalies in the MDR could fall below the record 2005 levels by the peak part of hurricane season, August - October. Even so, SSTs in the Caribbean this year will be plenty warm to cause an abnormal number of major hurricanes. These warm SSTs may also cause extensive damage to the coral reefs, which suffered huge die-offs from the record SSTs of 2005.

Typically, June storms only form over the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Gulf Stream waters just offshore Florida, where water temperatures are warmest. SSTs are 28 - 30°C in these regions, which is about 0.5 - 1.5°C above average for this time of year. June storms typically form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance. African tropical waves, which serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes, are usually too far south in June to trigger tropical storm formation. Every so often, a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa moves far enough north to act as a seed for a June tropical storm. This was the case for Arthur of 2008 (which also had major help from the spinning remnants of the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Alma). Another way to get Atlantic June storms is for a disturbed weather area in the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to push north into the Western Caribbean and spawn a storm there. This was the case for Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006 (which may have also had help from an African wave). SSTs are too cold in June to allow storms to develop between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands--there has only been once such development in the historical record--Ana of 1979.


Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for May 31, 2010. SSTs averaged more that 1°C above average over the entire tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Note the large region of below average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, signaling the possible start of an La Niña episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream's band of strong high-altitude winds is the main source of wind shear in June over the Atlantic hurricane breeding grounds, since the jet is very active and located quite far south this time of year.

The jet stream over the past few weeks has been locked into a pattern where a southern branch (the subtropical jet stream) brings high wind shear over the Caribbean, and a northern branch (the polar jet stream) brings high wind shear offshore of New England. This leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches off the coast of North Carolina, which is where Invest 90L formed.

The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming ten days (Figure 3.) This means that the waters offshore of North Carolina is the most likely place for a tropical storm to form during this period, though the southwestern Caribbean will at times have shear low enough to allow tropical storm formation. The Gulf of Mexico is forecast to have wind shear too high to support a tropical storm during the first half of June. None of our reliable forecast models call for tropical storm formation over the coming 7 days, though the NOGAPS model indicates the possibility of a tropical disturbance forming off the coast of Nicaragua on Friday.


Figure 3. Wind shear forecast from the 00Z GMT June 1, 2010 run of the GFS model for June 7. Currently, the polar jet stream is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore New England, and the subtropical jet is bringing high wind shear to the northern Caribbean. This leaves the waters off the coast of North Carolina and southern Caribbean under low shear, making these areas the most favored region for tropical storm formation over the next 7 - 10 days. Wind speeds are given in m/s; multiply by two to get a rough conversion to knots. Thus, the red regions of low shear range from 0 - 16 knots.

Dry air and African dust
It's too early to concern ourselves with dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, since these dust outbreaks don't make it all the way to the June tropical cyclone breeding grounds in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Developing storms do have to contend with dry air from Canada moving off the U.S. coast; this was a key reason why our first "Invest" of the year, 90L off the coast of South Carolina, never became a subtropical storm.

Dust expert Professor Amato Evan of the University of Virginia has posted his forecast for African dust for the 2010 hurricane season. Dr. Evan is predicting that due to plentiful rains during last year's rainy season over the Sahel region of Africa, and near average amounts of African dust observed in May 2010 and during the 2009 hurricane season, we can expect near average or moderately below average levels of dust over the tropical Atlantic during the 2010 hurricane season.

Steering currents
The forecast steering current pattern over the next two weeks is a typical one for June, with an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs will be frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2009 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, that steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary
Wind shear over the main breeding grounds for June tropical cyclones, the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean, is expected to be high enough over the next two weeks to give us an average chance of a June named storm. I give a 30% chance of a named storm between now and June 15, and a 60% chance for the entire month of June. There is approximately a 30% chance of a June storm passing close enough to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill to cause significant transport of the oil. See my post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, for more information on this.

Agatha the 6th deadliest Eastern Pacific storm on record
Central America's Tropical Storm Agatha is now the 6th deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones on record. Agatha was a tropical storm for just 12 hours, making landfall Saturday on the Pacific coast of Guatemala as a 45 mph tropical storm. However, the storm brought huge amounts of rain--as much as 36 inches--to the high mountains of Guatemala. So far, flooding and landslides have killed at least 123 people in Guatemala, with 59 others missing. The storm also killed 9 in neighboring El Salvador, and 14 in Honduras.


Figure 4. Journey to the center of the Earth: a massive sinkhole 200 feet (60 meters) deep opened up in the capital, Guatemala City, after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. How are they going to fix this hole? Wow! It doesn't even look real.

Guatemala's worst flooding disaster in recent history was due to Hurricane Stan of 2005, which killed 1,513. The deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record for Guatemala was Hurricane Paul of 1982, which made landfall in Guatemala as a tropical depression. Flooding from Paul's rains killed 620 people in Guatemala.

Oil spill update
Light onshore winds out of the south to southwest are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico all week, resulting increased threats of oil to the Alabama and Mississippi barrier islands, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These persistent southwesterly winds will likely bring oil very close to the Florida Panhandle by Saturday.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Today, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays during hurricane season. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season

I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Portlight receives a major grant to fund U.S. disaster relief work
The Christopher and Dana Reeve Foundation has announced today that it is awarding a Quality of Life Grant in the amount of $21,500 to Portlight Strategies, Inc. The grant will fund a ready-to-deploy container specifically outfitted to serve the immediate needs of people with disabilities in the aftermath of hurricanes and other domestic natural disasters. To read more about this award, check out the Portlight blog. Congratulations, Portlight team!

Portlight continues its Haiti response
Ready or not, the rainy season is here for Haiti. Portlight has done a tremendous amount to help the Haitians get ready for the upcoming hurricane season, as detailed in the Haitian Relief Recap blog post made last week. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to Portlight's efforts in Haiti.


Figure 5. A portion of the 30,000 pounds of rice donated to Haitian earthquake victims by Portlight earlier this month, shipped via the schooner Halie and Mathew.

I'll be back Wednesday afternoon with an analysis of the new Colorado State University hurricane forecast issued by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, due out on June 2.

Jeff Masters

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Morning KOTG
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
1723. IKE
Quoting msgambler:
LOL I meant weather wise IKE


Zero...none...nada.

Cut and cap in the GOM.
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1722. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
good morning all another day
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 182 Comments: 57006
The good news: Phet has now shrunk to 7 deg lat, 8 deg lon diameter, only slightly larger than Hurricane Katrina, but now it is poised to make a direct landfall on Karachi on Friday as a 160 mph (260 km/h) cyclone. I expect a 45-ft (14-metre) storm surge on the Indus Delta. So Pakistan will likely have a triple catastrophe before the week is out: possible destruction of its major city and port, flooding of its most fertile land, and a landslide lake that could unleash an 18-metre high downstream tsunami--YIKES.



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morning all
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Shear is still below average in the tropical atlantic

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LOL I meant weather wise IKE
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
1714. IKE
Quoting CycloneOz:


What a shame...and I defrosted crow overnight just in case.

Oh well...still plenty more crow in the freezer.

Atticus Finch done put down another dog! :)

(RIP 91L! :)



0-0-0.:)
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1712. IKE



Workers collect washed-up oil along the coastline of Dauphin Island, Ala. Tuesday, June 1, 2010, as oil leaking from the Deepwater Horizon wellhead continues to spread in the Gulf of Mexico. Since the explosion and sinking of the Deepwater Horizon rig, a disaster scenario has emerged with millions of gallons of crude oil spewing unchecked into the Gulf.
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Good morning Ike, Storm, P451. Hope all are well this morning. Beautiful morning on the Alabama Coast this morning but the sounds in the distance may change all that.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
1710. IKE
Quoting mikatnight:


What books have you written?


Actually none.

Change novelist to tropical fanatic.

***reaches for coffee***


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/CANGIALOSI
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Quoting IKE:
Last Update: 2-JUN-2010 04:51am EDT

The Atlantic looks quiet through at least the middle of June, to me. But...I'm not a rocket scientist or a met. Just a novelist.



What books have you written?
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
Interesting/sad commentary on Weather Channel's format change (Fri night movies with weather in them...), attempt to hike fees, Dish almost canceling them. Dish & Weather channel not doing local forecast "on the 8's".

Looks like Dr. Steve Lyons got another forecast right.

http://www.tvsquad.com/2010/05/25/weather-channel-vs-dish-network-storm-warning-for-viewers/?icid=m ain|main|dl2|link3|http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tvsquad.com%2F2010%2F05%2F25%2Fweather-channel-vs-dish-network-s torm-warning-for-viewers%2F
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COAPS model predicts for the 2010 Hurricane Season.

17 Named Storms
10 Hurricanes

Link

The COAPS model did well last year.

8 Named Storms
4 Hurricanes
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Phet continues to strengthen and should become a category 5 cyclone later today.



91L completely gone. I'm surprised the NHC hasn't deactivated it, they should do that later today.
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Phet getting a bit close for comfort

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Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Blog Update

Tropical Update; Phet to become a category 5 storm



Love the post. I didn't even know about the thing N of Puerto Rico. We may have to watch that


Thanks, it was also in yesterday's update....make sure you try to read the updates each day since everything will be monitored this season. its too risky to let things sneak up on us...

Yesterday



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1701. cg2916
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Blog Update

Tropical Update; Phet to become a category 5 storm



Love the post. I didn't even know about the thing N of Puerto Rico. We may have to watch that.

As for 91L, unless it pulls a fast one like it did yesterday, I think it's dead.

That area in the SW Carib. has lost convection, but I'll still watch it in the EPAC.

That wave does look pretty impressive, I have to admit. And all it has to deal with it dry air and shear. Too far south, though, but still bears watching.
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1700. IKE
Robots in action in the GOM
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Quoting WatchingThisOne:
Anyone watching the ROV video? I've been staring at more or less the same thing for hours now. In the occasional moments of more visual clarity, it appears that there is no cutting going on ... the wire/band is stationary on the guiding pulley.

Pottery earlier mentioned that the cutting rig was taking a bit of a beating from the oil and mentioned vibration.

My speculation is that they were doing fine with the 21 ID riser pipe that they were securely fastened to via the skid at the flange below the cut. And then they hit the drill pipe ... which is free to move around inside the riser (to the extent that is possible with those flow rates) ... and started to experience "chatter" as the cutter started in on that. That could lead to all manner of problems - breakage of the cutting wire, pulling what is supposed to be a clean horizontal cut up or down, and probably other things I haven't thought of.

Again, speculation - only what I think I am seeing; not necessarily what is happening on the seabed.

Let's hope they get this done. Next step would be the second BOP and I sense that would be much more difficult.


I've been watching too. Oil drum comments suggest the cutting wire is stuck - frozen in methane ice.

Link
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1697. cg2916
Phet.

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1696. IKE
Last Update: 2-JUN-2010 04:51am EDT

June 1st marked the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and the Atlantic Basin has no developing tropical systems at this time.

We continue to watch a large thunderstorm complex just east of the Yucatan Peninsula which once was part of Tropical Storm Agatha from the East Pacific. Low-level wind analysis shows a weak cyclonic circulation under the thunderstorm complex. However, mid- and upper levels are being sheared by strong west-southwest to east-northeast oriented upper-level winds. This shear is more pronounced farther north. Current thinking is that the system will move very little and slowly fall apart during the next day or two near or along the eastern Yucatan coast, mostly south of Cozumel and Cancun, Mexico. High-level moisture from this remnant feature continues to spread east-northeast influencing the development of showers and thunderstorms over Cuba, the Florida Straits and over southern-most Florida. The enhancement of showers and thunderstorms over this same area is expected to last through Wednesday and perhaps even on Thursday before the remnant feature falls apart.

We are tracking five tropical waves that are moving across the southern North Atlantic and into the southern Caribbean. All waves remain weak and there are no signs of support for development.

By AccuWeather Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski and Senior Meteorologist Jack Boston
..............................................


The Atlantic looks quiet through at least the middle of June, to me. But...I'm not a rocket scientist or a met. Just a novelist.

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Anyone watching the ROV video? I've been staring at more or less the same thing for hours now. In the occasional moments of more visual clarity, it appears that there is no cutting going on ... the wire/band is stationary on the guiding pulley.

Pottery earlier mentioned that the cutting rig was taking a bit of a beating from the oil and mentioned vibration.

My speculation is that they were doing fine with the 21 ID riser pipe that they were securely fastened to via the skid at the flange below the cut. And then they hit the drill pipe ... which is free to move around inside the riser (to the extent that is possible with those flow rates) ... and started to experience "chatter" as the cutter started in on that. That could lead to all manner of problems - breakage of the cutting wire, pulling what is supposed to be a clean horizontal cut up or down, and probably other things I haven't thought of.

Again, speculation - only what I think I am seeing; not necessarily what is happening on the seabed.

Let's hope they get this done. Next step would be the second BOP and I sense that would be much more difficult.
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1694. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
KALPANA-1 satellite makes the eye very small looking.
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1693. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
T4.5 reading on the radar IMD uses to classify a system for the 8:00 AM UTC hour.

T4.5 is around 80-85 knots..
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10 miles eye PHET
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Quoting lunabaas2:
Check http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ for Phet. Will grow to cat 5 and forecasting direct hit on Karachi as Cat 3. This is a huge disaster in the making. The National Disaster management Authority disaster planning for Karachi (read it at http://www.ndma.gov.pk/Docs/AnnualReport/KarachiPlan.doc) recommends evacuation of hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, of people. This requires early warnings for the population. These warnings are not happening. Given the size of Karachi (15 million people) and surrounding areas - much of it below sea level - they need to begin evacuations now.
The planning, incidentally, is very poor. Doesn't even mention previous, smaller, cyclones to hit Karachi. Such as 1965, which killed 10,000+ people. Karachi was also much smaller then. There was also a storm surge devastated the city, of just over 100,000 as was then, in 1902.
I dread to think what's about to happen.


How awful. We should all hope that Phet swerves one way or another. The major disasters are beginning to add up.
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1690. Makoto1
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Hopefully Oman will get a Gonu and not a Nargis, it all really depends on how they prepare


And partially on if it curves sharply or not. I guess we'll find out in the next few days.
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Hopefully Oman will get a Gonu and not a Nargis, it all really depends on how they prepare
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----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 JUN 2010 Time : 093000 UTC
Lat : 18:04:18 N Lon : 60:19:31 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 924.4mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.3 6.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : -17.3C Cloud Region Temp : -72.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


114kts its CAT4 so next report of JTWC will be CAT4
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Check http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ for Phet. Will grow to cat 5 and forecasting direct hit on Karachi as Cat 3. This is a huge disaster in the making. The National Disaster management Authority disaster planning for Karachi (read it at http://www.ndma.gov.pk/Docs/AnnualReport/KarachiPlan.doc) recommends evacuation of hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, of people. This requires early warnings for the population. These warnings are not happening. Given the size of Karachi (15 million people) and surrounding areas - much of it below sea level - they need to begin evacuations now.
The planning, incidentally, is very poor. Doesn't even mention previous, smaller, cyclones to hit Karachi. Such as 1965, which killed 10,000+ people. Karachi was also much smaller then. There was also a storm surge devastated the city, of just over 100,000 as was then, in 1902.
I dread to think what's about to happen.
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Good Morning

Blog Update

Tropical Update; Phet to become a category 5 storm

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1685. Makoto1
Quoting all4hurricanes:

I think the eye is too jagged and the tail makes the storm lopsided, I just don't see this storm as a 5 at least not soon. Is Oman prepared for any cyclone? are they at least warning people?


Maybe it won't be quite a 5, but that's the forecast I saw... Either way it's going to be extremely powerful, and I don't think Oman can handle anything like this. I'm not sure of the details if they're warning anyone but I remember Gonu caused 4 billion dollars in damage there.
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Also the structure is donut shaped like most cat 5s it looks more like a cruller
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Quoting all4hurricanes:

I think the eye is too jagged and the tail makes the storm lopsided, I just don't see this storm as a 5 at least not soon. Is Oman prepared for any cyclone? are they at least warning people?


Yeah, At least no city in the south coast of oman. The only city can touch is SUR in the south-east coast.
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I think the eye is too jagged and the tail makes the storm lopsided, I just don't see this storm as a 5 at least not soon. Is Oman prepared for any cyclone? are they at least warning people?
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Quoting Makoto1:
The discussion on Phet also mentioned the distinct possibility that this moves farther west and hits Oman straight on, which for something that is forecast to become a category 5 is a scary thought. Either way they'll get pretty badly flooded there, though this means Karachi gets a somewhat "weaker" system.


Maybe youre right now is near CAT4 could get CAT5 in the next 24hours.
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1680. Makoto1
The discussion on Phet also mentioned the distinct possibility that this moves farther west and hits Oman straight on, which for something that is forecast to become a category 5 is a scary thought. Either way they'll get pretty badly flooded there, though this means Karachi gets a somewhat "weaker" system.
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Waid, waid, waid, waid, waid.....



Hmm... didn't realize it had held together in that area for so long....
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
coastal region of Oman is going to get very, very gusty winds.


Some model puts Phet to land in the city of Karachi with at least CAT2 will be catastrophic if land in a big city like that, i dont think there buldings are prepare for than kind of storm.
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Morning everyone. We had some rain yesterday evening, but I believe I'm correct in thinking Agatha remnants won't get here until the weekend?
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1676. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
coastal region of Oman is going to get very, very gusty winds.
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
The advisory is in the text tab at FMNOC.


Do'h! lol

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1674. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 007
WTIO31 PGTW 020900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (PHET) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 17.7N 60.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 60.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 18.3N 60.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 19.0N 59.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.0N 59.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 21.0N 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 22.7N 62.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 25.3N 68.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 28.6N 74.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
020900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 60.5E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 22 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z, 030300Z AND 030900Z.
//
BT
#0001
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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