The hurricane season of 2010 arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2010

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The hurricane season of 2010 is upon us. With unprecedented sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, El Niño gone and possibly transitioning to La Niña, a massive oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico, a million earthquake refugees in Haiti at the mercy of a hurricane strike, and an ever-increasing number of people living on our coasts, the arrival of this year's hurricane season comes with an unusually ominous tone. NOAA is forecasting a very active and possibly hyperactive season, and Dr. Bill Gray has said he expects "a hell of a year." However, our ability to forecast hurricane activity months in advance is limited, and we don't yet know how the large scale weather patterns like the Bermuda High will set up during the peak part of hurricane season. In particular, I very much doubt that we are in for a repeat of the unprecedented violence of the Hurricane Season of 2005, with its 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes. While sea surface temperatures are currently warmer this year than in 2005, that year featured some very unusual atmospheric circulation patterns, with a very strong ridge of high pressure over the eastern U.S., record drought in the Amazon, and very low surface pressures over the Atlantic. A repeat of 2005's weather patterns is unlikely, though I am expecting we will get at least four major hurricanes this year. An average year sees just two major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Tracks of all June tropical storms and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, 1995 - 2009. Allison was a subtropical storm (coded blue). Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

The latest long-range computer model guidance suggests there's no reason to suspect that the first two weeks of this year's hurricane season will bring any unusual activity. Climatologically, June is typically the quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season. On average, we see only one named storm every two years in June. Only one major hurricane has made landfall in June--Category 4 Hurricane Audrey of 1957, which struck the Texas/Louisiana border area on June 27 of that year, killing 550. The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. In the fifteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been eleven June named storms (if we include 2008's Tropical Storm Arthur, which really formed on May 31). Five tropical storms have formed in the first half of June in that 14-year period, giving a historical 36% chance of a first-half-of-June named storm. Five June storms in the past 14 years have passed close enough to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill location to have caused significant transport had there been an oil slick on the surface.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are at record high levels over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America this year (Figure 2). As I discussed in my May 15 post, the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Central America (20°W - 80°W), is called the Main Development Region (MDR) because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were an eye-opening 1.46°C above average during April. This is the third straight record warm month, and the warmest anomaly measured for any month--by a remarkable 0.2°C. The previous record warmest anomalies for the Atlantic MDR were set in June 2005 and March 2010, at 1.26°C. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs. The AO and NAO are climate patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean related to fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores-Bermuda High. If the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), this creates a weak Azores-Bermuda High, which reduces the trade winds circulating around the High. During December - February, we had the most negative AO/NAO since records began in 1950, and this caused trade winds between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the hurricane Main Development Region to slow to 1 - 2 m/s (2.2 - 4.5 mph) below average. Slower trade winds mean less mixing of the surface waters with cooler waters down deep, plus less evaporational cooling of the surface water. As a result, the ocean heated up significantly, relative to normal, over the winter and Spring.

However, over the past two weeks, the AO/NAO has trended close to average, and trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to near normal speeds as the Bermuda-Azores High has strengthened. SST anomalies have been falling in recent weeks, and will continue to fall in the coming two weeks, based on the latest forecast from the GFS model. While I expect that record SSTs will continue into mid-June, current trends suggest that by July, SST anomalies will be close to what they were in 2005. SST anomalies in the MDR could fall below the record 2005 levels by the peak part of hurricane season, August - October. Even so, SSTs in the Caribbean this year will be plenty warm to cause an abnormal number of major hurricanes. These warm SSTs may also cause extensive damage to the coral reefs, which suffered huge die-offs from the record SSTs of 2005.

Typically, June storms only form over the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Gulf Stream waters just offshore Florida, where water temperatures are warmest. SSTs are 28 - 30°C in these regions, which is about 0.5 - 1.5°C above average for this time of year. June storms typically form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance. African tropical waves, which serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes, are usually too far south in June to trigger tropical storm formation. Every so often, a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa moves far enough north to act as a seed for a June tropical storm. This was the case for Arthur of 2008 (which also had major help from the spinning remnants of the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Alma). Another way to get Atlantic June storms is for a disturbed weather area in the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to push north into the Western Caribbean and spawn a storm there. This was the case for Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006 (which may have also had help from an African wave). SSTs are too cold in June to allow storms to develop between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands--there has only been once such development in the historical record--Ana of 1979.


Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for May 31, 2010. SSTs averaged more that 1°C above average over the entire tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Note the large region of below average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, signaling the possible start of an La Niña episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream's band of strong high-altitude winds is the main source of wind shear in June over the Atlantic hurricane breeding grounds, since the jet is very active and located quite far south this time of year.

The jet stream over the past few weeks has been locked into a pattern where a southern branch (the subtropical jet stream) brings high wind shear over the Caribbean, and a northern branch (the polar jet stream) brings high wind shear offshore of New England. This leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches off the coast of North Carolina, which is where Invest 90L formed.

The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming ten days (Figure 3.) This means that the waters offshore of North Carolina is the most likely place for a tropical storm to form during this period, though the southwestern Caribbean will at times have shear low enough to allow tropical storm formation. The Gulf of Mexico is forecast to have wind shear too high to support a tropical storm during the first half of June. None of our reliable forecast models call for tropical storm formation over the coming 7 days, though the NOGAPS model indicates the possibility of a tropical disturbance forming off the coast of Nicaragua on Friday.


Figure 3. Wind shear forecast from the 00Z GMT June 1, 2010 run of the GFS model for June 7. Currently, the polar jet stream is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore New England, and the subtropical jet is bringing high wind shear to the northern Caribbean. This leaves the waters off the coast of North Carolina and southern Caribbean under low shear, making these areas the most favored region for tropical storm formation over the next 7 - 10 days. Wind speeds are given in m/s; multiply by two to get a rough conversion to knots. Thus, the red regions of low shear range from 0 - 16 knots.

Dry air and African dust
It's too early to concern ourselves with dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, since these dust outbreaks don't make it all the way to the June tropical cyclone breeding grounds in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Developing storms do have to contend with dry air from Canada moving off the U.S. coast; this was a key reason why our first "Invest" of the year, 90L off the coast of South Carolina, never became a subtropical storm.

Dust expert Professor Amato Evan of the University of Virginia has posted his forecast for African dust for the 2010 hurricane season. Dr. Evan is predicting that due to plentiful rains during last year's rainy season over the Sahel region of Africa, and near average amounts of African dust observed in May 2010 and during the 2009 hurricane season, we can expect near average or moderately below average levels of dust over the tropical Atlantic during the 2010 hurricane season.

Steering currents
The forecast steering current pattern over the next two weeks is a typical one for June, with an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs will be frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2009 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, that steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary
Wind shear over the main breeding grounds for June tropical cyclones, the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean, is expected to be high enough over the next two weeks to give us an average chance of a June named storm. I give a 30% chance of a named storm between now and June 15, and a 60% chance for the entire month of June. There is approximately a 30% chance of a June storm passing close enough to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill to cause significant transport of the oil. See my post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, for more information on this.

Agatha the 6th deadliest Eastern Pacific storm on record
Central America's Tropical Storm Agatha is now the 6th deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones on record. Agatha was a tropical storm for just 12 hours, making landfall Saturday on the Pacific coast of Guatemala as a 45 mph tropical storm. However, the storm brought huge amounts of rain--as much as 36 inches--to the high mountains of Guatemala. So far, flooding and landslides have killed at least 123 people in Guatemala, with 59 others missing. The storm also killed 9 in neighboring El Salvador, and 14 in Honduras.


Figure 4. Journey to the center of the Earth: a massive sinkhole 200 feet (60 meters) deep opened up in the capital, Guatemala City, after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. How are they going to fix this hole? Wow! It doesn't even look real.

Guatemala's worst flooding disaster in recent history was due to Hurricane Stan of 2005, which killed 1,513. The deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record for Guatemala was Hurricane Paul of 1982, which made landfall in Guatemala as a tropical depression. Flooding from Paul's rains killed 620 people in Guatemala.

Oil spill update
Light onshore winds out of the south to southwest are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico all week, resulting increased threats of oil to the Alabama and Mississippi barrier islands, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These persistent southwesterly winds will likely bring oil very close to the Florida Panhandle by Saturday.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Today, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays during hurricane season. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season

I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Portlight receives a major grant to fund U.S. disaster relief work
The Christopher and Dana Reeve Foundation has announced today that it is awarding a Quality of Life Grant in the amount of $21,500 to Portlight Strategies, Inc. The grant will fund a ready-to-deploy container specifically outfitted to serve the immediate needs of people with disabilities in the aftermath of hurricanes and other domestic natural disasters. To read more about this award, check out the Portlight blog. Congratulations, Portlight team!

Portlight continues its Haiti response
Ready or not, the rainy season is here for Haiti. Portlight has done a tremendous amount to help the Haitians get ready for the upcoming hurricane season, as detailed in the Haitian Relief Recap blog post made last week. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to Portlight's efforts in Haiti.


Figure 5. A portion of the 30,000 pounds of rice donated to Haitian earthquake victims by Portlight earlier this month, shipped via the schooner Halie and Mathew.

I'll be back Wednesday afternoon with an analysis of the new Colorado State University hurricane forecast issued by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, due out on June 2.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Right date, wrong coordinates. Will someone like to explain?

AL, 81, 2010060112, , BEST, 0, 250N, 600W, 25, 1007, TD, 34,


Hi Miami...Could you please post the link to that site? Thanks!
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CycloneOz "YOU MUST LEARN TO POST LIKE THIS. ALL GOOD
METS ABV. WELL AND TYPE IN CAPS AND IN LITTLE
COLUMNS."

Thanks for the explanation.
I'd assumed that NWS and NHC was just full of introverts who only wanted to be ignored.
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The GOM blob looks more likely than 91L to me

Link
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Thanks you guys.Thank you all very much.I trully do appreciate it really.Thanks.Can someone tell me how to upload a picture as your avatar?.
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Right date, wrong coordinates. Will someone like to explain?

AL, 81, 2010060112, , BEST, 0, 250N, 600W, 25, 1007, TD, 34,
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Quoting BaltOCane:


...and why are they all US hits? haha!


She is hoping they all hit the US because when they hit here he leaves for a few days.
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James Cameron meeting with EPA officials on how to stop oil leak.He built submersibles for 1989 film the Abyss.
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Quoting pottery:

Er, OZ, is your wife JFV?? Miami twice??


...and why are they all US hits? haha!
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Oh thanks Pottery.I will follow your advice as much as I can.
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764. xcool








NEW 18Z NGP
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


There was a M6.1 earthquake in Costa Rica today:



Wow. Looks like I just missed everything. That was very close to where we were in Play Hermosa.
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762. IKE
Quoting ElConando:


From Wikipedia.

A wake low, or wake depression, is a mesoscale low-pressure area which trails the mesoscale high following a squall line.[1] Due to the subsiding warm air associated with the systems formation, clearing skies are associated with the wake low. Once difficult to detect in surface weather observations due to their broad spacing, the formation of mesoscale weather station networks, or mesonets, has increased their detection.[2] Severe weather, in the form of high winds, can be generated by the wake low when the pressure difference between the mesohigh preceding it and the wake low is intense enough.[3] When the squall line is in the process of decay, heat bursts can be generated near the wake low. Once new thunderstorm activity along the squall line ends, the wake low associated with it weakens in tandem...

click the link for rest of article


Interesting. Thanks!
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From the Miami NWS Discussion:

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...DEEP LAYER SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO FUNNEL TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN CARIB
(INCLUDING FROM AGATHA'S REMNANTS) ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH A FEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND LOCAL SEA/LAKE
BREEZES TO RESULT IN SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. Link
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Quoting hurricane07:
What???.woah hold the phone.First of all I.m a 14yr old Female and I live in D.C.2 I fisrt knew about this blog only 2 weeks ago.And 3 you all are comparing me to a reaken guy.what the hell is this all about.I'm trying to make friends here and all ready you all are saying I'm this jfv who every guy.What's you all's problom.Please don't compare me to someone I have no association with.I love weather and that's why I came to this blog.

sorr y to say but you will have to get used to these people. they just can't wait to find someone to pick on, or report. i see it every day on here. if you don't agree with these high school bullies on here they will report you, and tease you all day. i welcome you and look forward to reading your post, and just ignore ignorance. thats the only way i can remain active on this site. just some advice- they can talk politics but you can't unless you agree with them. otherwise they will try to get you banned. good luck and hope your hurricane season is safe.
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Quoting opsman27N82W:


DANGER WILL ROBINSON!!!
What do you mean?.Pleas do not pick with me.I have nothing aginst you.By the way who is this jfv dude.And how come people are saying i'm him.I'm a totally different human being.You know what i'm not going to argue with you people anymore.Belive what you belive.
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Quoting IKE:


Not sure if that's not a misprint.

No..not 91L...

This....the blob in the GOM....



From Wikipedia.

A wake low, or wake depression, is a mesoscale low-pressure area which trails the mesoscale high following a squall line.[1] Due to the subsiding warm air associated with the systems formation, clearing skies are associated with the wake low. Once difficult to detect in surface weather observations due to their broad spacing, the formation of mesoscale weather station networks, or mesonets, has increased their detection.[2] Severe weather, in the form of high winds, can be generated by the wake low when the pressure difference between the mesohigh preceding it and the wake low is intense enough.[3] When the squall line is in the process of decay, heat bursts can be generated near the wake low. Once new thunderstorm activity along the squall line ends, the wake low associated with it weakens in tandem...

click the link for rest of article
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Quoting hurricane07:
What???.woah hold the phone.First of all I.m a 14yr old Female and I live in D.C.2 I fisrt knew about this blog only 2 weeks ago.And 3 you all are comparing me to a reaken guy.what the hell is this all about.I'm trying to make friends here and all ready you all are saying I'm this jfv who every guy.What's you all's problom.Please don't compare me to someone I have no association with.I love weather and that's why I came to this blog.

Dont take it on, 07.
There is a strange Viral Malady, affecting loads of people here.
Welcome to the place. It's Crazy, fun, heartbreaking.
Keep Strong...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24369
755. IKE
From the Mobile,AL. discussion....

"THE GFS AND NAM BOTH DEVELOP A MCS SOUTH OF
LOUISIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH THEN SPREADS NORTHEAST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. UNABLE TO TELL AT THIS
POINT IF THIS IS A RELIABLE SOLUTION AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN
UPCOMING SHIFTS."
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Quoting CycloneOz:
Apparently, Mrs. CycloneOz has been following along with our exploits this PM...and has created her very own "Hurricane Prediction - 2010" list. I'm still chuckling from reading it, and I thought you folks might like to see it, too.

Please remember...before you go assailing it, Mrs. CycloneOz is new to all this. And she's lurking, too! :)

Alex (TS) TAMPA
Bonnie (3) MIAMI
Colin (2) Corpus Christi
Danielle (1) Corpus Christi
Earl (3) Mississippi
Fiona (TS) North Carolina
Gaston (2) Pensacola
Hermine (TS) New Orleans
Igor (4) Houston
Julia (3) Pensacola
Karl (3) Panama City
Lisa (TS) South Carolina
Matthew (5) Pensacola (RIGHT INTO IT)
Nicole (4) Galveston
Otto (3) Houston
Paula (4) North Carolina
Richard (3) Galveston
Shary (4) Miami
Tomas (TS) Galveston
Virginie (1) Corpus Christ
Walter (1) Jacksonville

Notice that it's U.S. heavy, with absolutely no

Do you think she'd like to see me gone all summer?

Er, OZ, is your wife JFV?? Miami twice??
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24369
753. BDAwx
So the BWS forecast:
"High pressure will remain the prevalent weather feature for the next few days. Light to moderate southerly winds continue over the next few days as strong high pressure remains to the east. Tides have been averaging nearly a foot below predicted due to cooler than normal water temperatures. "

Interesting - compared to the record warmth farther south of us...
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Why do you all assume that Hurricane07 is JFV? Heck, I was called JFV on time for pedicting a Florida landfall last year.. not cool guys..Thanks for having my back.I really do respect you and your forecast.
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No real organization



Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
750. IKE
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Ike..A "wake depression"? or are they forecasting 91L to form into a "weak" depression and move into the Gulf?


Not sure if that's not a misprint.

No..not 91L...

This....the blob in the GOM....

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Ike..A "wake depression"? or are they forecasting 91L to form into a "weak" depression and move into the Gulf?
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Quoting hurricane07:
What???.woah hold the phone.First of all I.m a 14yr old Female and I live in D.C.2 I fisrt knew about this blog only 2 weeks ago.And 3 you all are comparing me to a reaken guy.what the hell is this all about.I'm trying to make friends here and all ready you all are saying I'm this jfv who every guy.What's you all's problom.Please don't compare me to someone I have no association with.I love weather and that's why I came to this blog.


DANGER WILL ROBINSON!!!
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Quoting skepticall2:


Well it got washed away by a different storm maybe Allison or something like that and they rebuilt it once. The only pier I know of that they are going to rebuild is 61st street pier.


I'm the only chaser that actually captured one of the Galveston piers taking "the deep six" during Hurricane Ike.

I'm actually surprised that only 2,000 people have seen it since September 2008. It's not everyday you see a pier go down in the Gulf during a land-falling night hurricane.
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745. IKE
Pressures falling off in the western GOM...

Buoy 42019...60 NM south of Freeport,Texas....

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 120 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 11.7 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 1.6 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 5 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 3.6 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): S ( 184 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.88 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.4 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.5 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 76.1 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 90.1 °F
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Does anyone know where I can go to find the lat/lon combination of the storms in June?

Like this one...
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What???.woah hold the phone.First of all I.m a 14yr old Female and I live in D.C.2 I fisrt knew about this blog only 2 weeks ago.And 3 you all are comparing me to a reaken guy.what the hell is this all about.I'm trying to make friends here and all ready you all are saying I'm this jfv who every guy.What's you all's problom.Please don't compare me to someone I have no association with.I love weather and that's why I came to this blog.
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Never one to pass up a straight line...
"God will wipe us out personally."
...What do you mean 'we', paleface?

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Greetings all. Choctawhatchee Bay is under sunny skies, light SW breeze, and another beautiful sunset in order. Oil's come'n but not yet...it's a great Tuesday here now. Come on down and spend money before my taxes go up...
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737. IKE
Uh...oh...from the New Orleans weather office...

MARINE...
A FEW SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE MARINE FORECAST THIS PACKAGE.
STILL EXPECTING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTING A LOW PRESSURE
FEATURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
RESULTS IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION...WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS.
THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ARRIVE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FEATURE AS
A WAKE DEPRESSION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS
TO NEAR 15 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS FOR THE THURSDAY
TIME PERIOD. DUE TO AN EXPECTED SWELL TRAIN AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
TOWARD AND THROUGH THE AREA...SEA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST A FOOT OR TWO
HIGHER THAN WHAT WOULD USUALLY BE SUPPORTED BY THE FORECAST WINDS.
THIS GENERALLY RESULTS IN A MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHT OF ABOUT 5 FEET FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE LOW RESULTING IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS...BUT A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE ELEVATED
WINDS AND SEAS.
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Quoting skepticall2:


Nope had a buddy fish the remanants of it this past weekend. It's sad always went to that pier to fish.


Was one of my favorites fishing spots in TX. I sure caught some beautiful trouts back in 99 there.
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Quoting CycloneOz:


Reed...even though you saw your posts as "mocked" by others, you should take some solace in that you were compared to very identifiable names. And those two names don't always have a negative connotation attached to them.

You know who? Smile erupts every time without trying.
Joe B? He's one of my "go to" guys this time of year!


He really impressed me this winter, nailed it! :)
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Do the islands like Cayman and Jamaica have to worry about the oil spill (not a spill - a gush)?
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hey TampaSpin,

you might appreciate this: June 2nd 1990 tornado outbreak-

June 2, 1990 Tornado Outbreak



On June 2, 1990, a large and widespread tornado outbreak occurred across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Through the early morning of June 3, there were a total of 65 tornadoes, 37 of which occurred across Indiana.

The most heavily damaged area was from Southeast Illinois through Southern Indiana and into Southwestern Ohio. There were several strong to violent tornadoes across this corridor including seven that were determined to be F4 in intensity on the Fujita scale.



Link

NWS Indy
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Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


didn't you see these 2 chasing tornados? Just leave her the credit cards and have every Dollar Store in her GPS and she is set!! LOL


OMG, that was the scariest 30 minutes of my life.

When I told her to go into that store for shelter and she asked for my credit card, the only thing that came to mind was that I wish I had her sense of humor at that moment.
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730. IKE
More bad news....18Z GFS shows a southerly flow developing over the northern GOM by the end of this week into the weekend. Pushing more oil into coastal sections.

You hear that Mr. President?
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Definitely not SST. They are running 29-30 degrees C in the NW Caribbean.


The reason convection isn't staying as strong as earlier has more to do with diurnal processes and the fact that 91L simply doesn't have a low level circulation underneath. The mid level circulation can keep doing this for days, but until it establishes a surface circulation it can forget about developing tropically.
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Quoting reedzone:


I was also called Joe Bastardi Jr. for predicting Hurricane Bill to move more west then what the models showed. I NEVER had Bill on coarse to hit NYC, but I had that one possibility it could weaken the front and push more west.


Reed...even though you saw your posts as "mocked" by others, you should take some solace in that you were compared to very identifiable names. And those two names don't always have a negative connotation attached to them.

You know who? Smile erupts every time without trying.
Joe B? He's one of my "go to" guys this time of year!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


has nothing to do with the SSTs


Definitely not SST. They are running 29-30 degrees C in the NW Caribbean.
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Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


wow bad enough reports are tar balls are washing up on Dauphin Island today, along with Petit Bois Island in Jackson County, Ms


And the worst part is that I'll be dead and gone for decades...and they'll still be washing up on the beach, with people stepping on them.

Strolling barefoot along the Gulf Coast Miracle Strip could easily be a thing of the past for more than a century.
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It all depends on what your definition of intact is. Sort of.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.