The hurricane season of 2010 arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2010

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The hurricane season of 2010 is upon us. With unprecedented sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, El Niño gone and possibly transitioning to La Niña, a massive oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico, a million earthquake refugees in Haiti at the mercy of a hurricane strike, and an ever-increasing number of people living on our coasts, the arrival of this year's hurricane season comes with an unusually ominous tone. NOAA is forecasting a very active and possibly hyperactive season, and Dr. Bill Gray has said he expects "a hell of a year." However, our ability to forecast hurricane activity months in advance is limited, and we don't yet know how the large scale weather patterns like the Bermuda High will set up during the peak part of hurricane season. In particular, I very much doubt that we are in for a repeat of the unprecedented violence of the Hurricane Season of 2005, with its 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes. While sea surface temperatures are currently warmer this year than in 2005, that year featured some very unusual atmospheric circulation patterns, with a very strong ridge of high pressure over the eastern U.S., record drought in the Amazon, and very low surface pressures over the Atlantic. A repeat of 2005's weather patterns is unlikely, though I am expecting we will get at least four major hurricanes this year. An average year sees just two major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Tracks of all June tropical storms and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, 1995 - 2009. Allison was a subtropical storm (coded blue). Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

The latest long-range computer model guidance suggests there's no reason to suspect that the first two weeks of this year's hurricane season will bring any unusual activity. Climatologically, June is typically the quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season. On average, we see only one named storm every two years in June. Only one major hurricane has made landfall in June--Category 4 Hurricane Audrey of 1957, which struck the Texas/Louisiana border area on June 27 of that year, killing 550. The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. In the fifteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been eleven June named storms (if we include 2008's Tropical Storm Arthur, which really formed on May 31). Five tropical storms have formed in the first half of June in that 14-year period, giving a historical 36% chance of a first-half-of-June named storm. Five June storms in the past 14 years have passed close enough to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill location to have caused significant transport had there been an oil slick on the surface.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are at record high levels over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America this year (Figure 2). As I discussed in my May 15 post, the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Central America (20°W - 80°W), is called the Main Development Region (MDR) because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were an eye-opening 1.46°C above average during April. This is the third straight record warm month, and the warmest anomaly measured for any month--by a remarkable 0.2°C. The previous record warmest anomalies for the Atlantic MDR were set in June 2005 and March 2010, at 1.26°C. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs. The AO and NAO are climate patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean related to fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores-Bermuda High. If the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), this creates a weak Azores-Bermuda High, which reduces the trade winds circulating around the High. During December - February, we had the most negative AO/NAO since records began in 1950, and this caused trade winds between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the hurricane Main Development Region to slow to 1 - 2 m/s (2.2 - 4.5 mph) below average. Slower trade winds mean less mixing of the surface waters with cooler waters down deep, plus less evaporational cooling of the surface water. As a result, the ocean heated up significantly, relative to normal, over the winter and Spring.

However, over the past two weeks, the AO/NAO has trended close to average, and trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to near normal speeds as the Bermuda-Azores High has strengthened. SST anomalies have been falling in recent weeks, and will continue to fall in the coming two weeks, based on the latest forecast from the GFS model. While I expect that record SSTs will continue into mid-June, current trends suggest that by July, SST anomalies will be close to what they were in 2005. SST anomalies in the MDR could fall below the record 2005 levels by the peak part of hurricane season, August - October. Even so, SSTs in the Caribbean this year will be plenty warm to cause an abnormal number of major hurricanes. These warm SSTs may also cause extensive damage to the coral reefs, which suffered huge die-offs from the record SSTs of 2005.

Typically, June storms only form over the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Gulf Stream waters just offshore Florida, where water temperatures are warmest. SSTs are 28 - 30°C in these regions, which is about 0.5 - 1.5°C above average for this time of year. June storms typically form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance. African tropical waves, which serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes, are usually too far south in June to trigger tropical storm formation. Every so often, a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa moves far enough north to act as a seed for a June tropical storm. This was the case for Arthur of 2008 (which also had major help from the spinning remnants of the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Alma). Another way to get Atlantic June storms is for a disturbed weather area in the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to push north into the Western Caribbean and spawn a storm there. This was the case for Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006 (which may have also had help from an African wave). SSTs are too cold in June to allow storms to develop between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands--there has only been once such development in the historical record--Ana of 1979.


Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for May 31, 2010. SSTs averaged more that 1°C above average over the entire tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Note the large region of below average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, signaling the possible start of an La Niña episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream's band of strong high-altitude winds is the main source of wind shear in June over the Atlantic hurricane breeding grounds, since the jet is very active and located quite far south this time of year.

The jet stream over the past few weeks has been locked into a pattern where a southern branch (the subtropical jet stream) brings high wind shear over the Caribbean, and a northern branch (the polar jet stream) brings high wind shear offshore of New England. This leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches off the coast of North Carolina, which is where Invest 90L formed.

The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming ten days (Figure 3.) This means that the waters offshore of North Carolina is the most likely place for a tropical storm to form during this period, though the southwestern Caribbean will at times have shear low enough to allow tropical storm formation. The Gulf of Mexico is forecast to have wind shear too high to support a tropical storm during the first half of June. None of our reliable forecast models call for tropical storm formation over the coming 7 days, though the NOGAPS model indicates the possibility of a tropical disturbance forming off the coast of Nicaragua on Friday.


Figure 3. Wind shear forecast from the 00Z GMT June 1, 2010 run of the GFS model for June 7. Currently, the polar jet stream is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore New England, and the subtropical jet is bringing high wind shear to the northern Caribbean. This leaves the waters off the coast of North Carolina and southern Caribbean under low shear, making these areas the most favored region for tropical storm formation over the next 7 - 10 days. Wind speeds are given in m/s; multiply by two to get a rough conversion to knots. Thus, the red regions of low shear range from 0 - 16 knots.

Dry air and African dust
It's too early to concern ourselves with dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, since these dust outbreaks don't make it all the way to the June tropical cyclone breeding grounds in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Developing storms do have to contend with dry air from Canada moving off the U.S. coast; this was a key reason why our first "Invest" of the year, 90L off the coast of South Carolina, never became a subtropical storm.

Dust expert Professor Amato Evan of the University of Virginia has posted his forecast for African dust for the 2010 hurricane season. Dr. Evan is predicting that due to plentiful rains during last year's rainy season over the Sahel region of Africa, and near average amounts of African dust observed in May 2010 and during the 2009 hurricane season, we can expect near average or moderately below average levels of dust over the tropical Atlantic during the 2010 hurricane season.

Steering currents
The forecast steering current pattern over the next two weeks is a typical one for June, with an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs will be frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2009 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, that steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary
Wind shear over the main breeding grounds for June tropical cyclones, the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean, is expected to be high enough over the next two weeks to give us an average chance of a June named storm. I give a 30% chance of a named storm between now and June 15, and a 60% chance for the entire month of June. There is approximately a 30% chance of a June storm passing close enough to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill to cause significant transport of the oil. See my post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, for more information on this.

Agatha the 6th deadliest Eastern Pacific storm on record
Central America's Tropical Storm Agatha is now the 6th deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones on record. Agatha was a tropical storm for just 12 hours, making landfall Saturday on the Pacific coast of Guatemala as a 45 mph tropical storm. However, the storm brought huge amounts of rain--as much as 36 inches--to the high mountains of Guatemala. So far, flooding and landslides have killed at least 123 people in Guatemala, with 59 others missing. The storm also killed 9 in neighboring El Salvador, and 14 in Honduras.


Figure 4. Journey to the center of the Earth: a massive sinkhole 200 feet (60 meters) deep opened up in the capital, Guatemala City, after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. How are they going to fix this hole? Wow! It doesn't even look real.

Guatemala's worst flooding disaster in recent history was due to Hurricane Stan of 2005, which killed 1,513. The deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record for Guatemala was Hurricane Paul of 1982, which made landfall in Guatemala as a tropical depression. Flooding from Paul's rains killed 620 people in Guatemala.

Oil spill update
Light onshore winds out of the south to southwest are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico all week, resulting increased threats of oil to the Alabama and Mississippi barrier islands, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These persistent southwesterly winds will likely bring oil very close to the Florida Panhandle by Saturday.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Today, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays during hurricane season. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season

I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Portlight receives a major grant to fund U.S. disaster relief work
The Christopher and Dana Reeve Foundation has announced today that it is awarding a Quality of Life Grant in the amount of $21,500 to Portlight Strategies, Inc. The grant will fund a ready-to-deploy container specifically outfitted to serve the immediate needs of people with disabilities in the aftermath of hurricanes and other domestic natural disasters. To read more about this award, check out the Portlight blog. Congratulations, Portlight team!

Portlight continues its Haiti response
Ready or not, the rainy season is here for Haiti. Portlight has done a tremendous amount to help the Haitians get ready for the upcoming hurricane season, as detailed in the Haitian Relief Recap blog post made last week. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to Portlight's efforts in Haiti.


Figure 5. A portion of the 30,000 pounds of rice donated to Haitian earthquake victims by Portlight earlier this month, shipped via the schooner Halie and Mathew.

I'll be back Wednesday afternoon with an analysis of the new Colorado State University hurricane forecast issued by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, due out on June 2.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Dont be nervous you will fit in just fine.
sure he'll will
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Sometimes, we all get too caught up in the drama of our lives, instead of sitting back and enjoying a little humor like this:



Enjoy the quiet in the tropics while it lasts!

iam going to enjoy the quiet

but iam disturb by that quick death leap
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At the end of the hurricane season im gonna be back on here saying I told you so once again. This hurricane season will not be half as active as forecast. At most 15 storms and most of these wil be steered out to sea. Dont panic because once again the season was hyped for nothing.
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Sorry, my PC studdereddd :)
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
783. Weather456 3:42 PM PDT on June 01, 2010
Quoting ElConando:


This won't last too much longer.


The system or the environment around the system?



neither....JFV's new name....
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It takes a little finesse to Maneuver that shear dangling from a 5000' cable in current and attached to a ship.
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818. JLPR2
Quoting Weather456:
Every blow up of convection around this system has been diffluent related. There isn't even any surface convergence associated with this feature to indicate it was self-sustaining.


yep, at the start it had plenty, so it seems it lost it, well... that's good right? :D
Who would want 91L to develop anyways ^^
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Quoting pottery:

LOL Indeed!
But Reagan came from there. He did ok, no?
heheheheh

well, i was just a kid when he was in office. from what i hear he did ok, but i know i would have laughed at the thought.
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Quoting Grothar:


Most are too young to remember that line. LOL


I don't remember it :)

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Quoting hurricane07:
Thanks w456 and alexhurricanes.Being on this blog for me is really going to be something.I'm a little star struck as they say and nervous.
Dont be nervous you will fit in just fine.
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456,

At which level is the dry air being entrained?
Quoting Weather456:


Convective cycle....last night this feature had surface convergence and now it does not. This indicates to me instead of a developing convective cycle, each cycle is getting less progressive.
and we may get one more but not for another 12 hrs from now
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Quoting Weather456:


I would like to laugh or chuckle but I love animals.


Oh I love animals, mainly dogs! Yet, that still doesn't keep me from laughing when I see this because I've thought to myself many many times that my dog might do that same thing.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Sometimes, we all get too caught up in the drama of our lives, instead of sitting back and enjoying a little humor like this:



Enjoy the quiet in the tropics while it lasts!



I would like to laugh or chuckle but I love animals.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Thanks w456 and alexhurricanes.Being on this blog for me is really going to be something.I'm a little star struck as they say and nervous.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its in a waning phase there may still be one more convective cycle left


Convective cycle....last night this feature had surface convergence and now it does not. This indicates to me instead of a developing convective cycle, each cycle is getting less progressive.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Sometimes, we all get too caught up in the drama of our lives, instead of sitting back and enjoying a little humor like this:



Enjoy the quiet in the tropics while it lasts!

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They are getting ready to try cutting the riser pipe again with that giant shear in case anyone is interested in watching.
Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 579
Quoting CycloneOz:
"Methinks the person has protested too much."


He doth, he thertainly doth.
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Quoting sarahjola:
lol!!! its a damn shame when we start looking to hollywood elitist to solve our problems

Hey, I hear Sean Connery is on his way over right now in Red October to seal it fir us with a nuke. :-)
Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 579
Quoting MrstormX:
91L will probably fizzle within the next 2 hours, just as it did last night. Im not expecting anything.
its in a waning phase there may still be one more convective cycle left
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Quoting opsman27N82W:


DANGER WILL ROBINSON!!!


Most are too young to remember that line. LOL
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


storm-number = 01 - 30 "numbered storms with forecasts issued and numbers are *not* recycled
until the next season."

90 - 99 "Invest, areas of interest watched by forecasters for possible development and these numbers are re-used periodically throughout the season"

80 - 89 "Internal training storm numbers which are to always be ignored"
Got it, thanks.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Every blow up of convection around this system has been diffluent related. There isn't even any surface convergence associated with this feature to indicate it was self-sustaining.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
ossgss thanks.If I'm typing a little wierd its becuase my baby sister tore off a few keys.Anyway back on subject for me I think 91L has a small window of development.However if it continues to go north it will be torn apart.
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Quoting hurricane07:
Hello Weather456.How are things for you.All is good?.And I hope you have a safe hurricane season.
Hurricane07 you have mail look up top and it will say new mail highlighted in red click on it and you will see the message this is were you can personally message people you can respond to thier message our create a new message. hope you have a good time on the blog as this is the best blog out there when it comes to tropical cyclones.
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Well they have cut away all of the smaller pipes around the riser, and are now bring back the huge hydraulic jaws.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6049
Quoting hurricane07:
Hello Weather456.How are things for you.All is good?.And I hope you have a safe hurricane season.


I'm doing fine, thanks. Hope you and all have a safe 2010, also.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Right date, wrong coordinates. Will someone like to explain?

AL, 81, 2010060112, , BEST, 0, 250N, 600W, 25, 1007, TD, 34,


storm-number = 01 - 30 "numbered storms with forecasts issued and numbers are *not* recycled
until the next season."

90 - 99 "Invest, areas of interest watched by forecasters for possible development and these numbers are re-used periodically throughout the season"

80 - 89 "Internal training storm numbers which are to always be ignored"
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah that's what I was thinking, plus the coordinates match a desert in Afghanistan so not much tropical activity going on there.

The coordinates match about 550 miles north of Antigua. In the middle of the ocean.

EDIT: Or did you mean in terms of SAL
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Quoting sarahjola:
lol!!! its a damn shame when we start looking to hollywood elitist to solve our problems

LOL Indeed!
But Reagan came from there. He did ok, no?
heheheheh
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the convection in the gom don't look like anything but storms. is this what people are talking about developing? its looks to me that the storm in the gom might just come to louisiana as rain. what say you?
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Quoting Weather456:
The system is taking in some dry air from the shortwave over the Gulf as indicated by the arc clouds racing out under the thunderstorms. The overall appearance looks anemic and ragged.

You can also see the old LLC racing into the Yucatan.





The arc clouds 456 is referring to are outflow boundaries, caused by dry air entrainment and the collapsing of thunderstorms due to the dry air.
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91L will probably fizzle within the next 2 hours, just as it did last night. Im not expecting anything.
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Quoting Weather456:


The system or the environment around the system?


I don't see a LLC; I don't think it will amount to much- just a rainmaker.
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Quoting hurricane07:
Thanks you guys.Thank you all very much.I trully do appreciate it really.Thanks.Can someone tell me how to upload a picture as your avatar?.


Try this page. It should help, and welcome to the zoo :)

http://wiki.wunderground.com/index.php/WunderBlogs
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
It doesn't look our new 91L is up to much... No hurt in naming it an invest, though. It's on its way to being torn to shreds in the gulf anyway. 91E isn't looking too good either.

But at least there is something to track... Tropical Cyclone Phet's to hurricane strength according to the JTWC, not sure on the IMD at the moment.
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"Methinks the person has protested too much."
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Hello Weather456.How are things for you.All is good?.And I hope you have a safe hurricane season.
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Quoting IKE:
Pressures falling off in the western GOM...

Buoy 42019...60 NM south of Freeport,Texas....

Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 120 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 11.7 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 1.6 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 5 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 3.6 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): S ( 184 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.88 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.06 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.4 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.5 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 76.1 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 90.1 °F
Conditions at 42056 as of
(4:50 pm CDT)
2150 GMT on 06/01/2010:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SW ( 220 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 5.8 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 9.7 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 3.3 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 5 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.4 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): S ( 169 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.89 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.8 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.0 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 77.9 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 88.0 °F

In the western Caribbean also.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8392
Quoting ElConando:


This won't last too much longer.


The system or the environment around the system?
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting nocaneindy:


Someone earlier said the invests that are numbered in the 80's are testing invests.
Quoting sirmaelstrom:
№ 770



That's not an actual invest...Note the number (81)
Yeah that's what I was thinking, plus the coordinates match a desert in Afghanistan so not much tropical activity going on there.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting skepticall2:
Great video OZ. Did you see the destruction to the flagstaff hotel while you were viewing the aftermath?

Also how many people are usually with you for chasing hurricanes?


My departure (or should I say escape) from Galveston Island precluded me from seeing much of the damage. I'm sure I missed the Flagstaff, along with much of the west-side and north / east side of the island.

The escape part of the story is still enthralling to remember.

I was the 1st one out.

And to date...only three people have ever chased with me....in order, hurricanejunky, PensacolaDoug, and Mrs. CycloneOz.
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Quoting Weather456:
The system is taking in some dry air from the shortwave over the Gulf as indicated by the arc clouds racing out under the thunderstorms. The overall appearance looks anemic and ragged.

You can also see the old LLC racing into the Yucatan.





This won't last too much longer.
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hiya guys! i see somethin's stirrin in da pot
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The system is taking in some dry air from the shortwave over the Gulf as indicated by the arc clouds racing out under the thunderstorms. The overall appearance looks anemic and ragged.

You can also see the old LLC racing into the Yucatan.



Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
№ 770

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Right date, wrong coordinates. Will someone like to explain?

AL, 81, 2010060112, , BEST, 0, 250N, 600W, 25, 1007, TD, 34,


That's not an actual invest...Note the number (81)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Right date, wrong coordinates. Will someone like to explain?

AL, 81, 2010060112, , BEST, 0, 250N, 600W, 25, 1007, TD, 34,


Someone earlier said the invests that are numbered in the 80's are testing invests.
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Quoting help4u:
James Cameron meeting with EPA officials on how to stop oil leak.He built submersibles for 1989 film the Abyss.
lol!!! its a damn shame when we start looking to hollywood elitist to solve our problems
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Right date, wrong coordinates. Will someone like to explain?

AL, 81, 2010060112, , BEST, 0, 250N, 600W, 25, 1007, TD, 34,


Hi Miami...Could you please post the link to that site? Thanks!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11275

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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