The hurricane season of 2010 arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2010

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The hurricane season of 2010 is upon us. With unprecedented sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, El Niño gone and possibly transitioning to La Niña, a massive oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico, a million earthquake refugees in Haiti at the mercy of a hurricane strike, and an ever-increasing number of people living on our coasts, the arrival of this year's hurricane season comes with an unusually ominous tone. NOAA is forecasting a very active and possibly hyperactive season, and Dr. Bill Gray has said he expects "a hell of a year." However, our ability to forecast hurricane activity months in advance is limited, and we don't yet know how the large scale weather patterns like the Bermuda High will set up during the peak part of hurricane season. In particular, I very much doubt that we are in for a repeat of the unprecedented violence of the Hurricane Season of 2005, with its 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes. While sea surface temperatures are currently warmer this year than in 2005, that year featured some very unusual atmospheric circulation patterns, with a very strong ridge of high pressure over the eastern U.S., record drought in the Amazon, and very low surface pressures over the Atlantic. A repeat of 2005's weather patterns is unlikely, though I am expecting we will get at least four major hurricanes this year. An average year sees just two major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Tracks of all June tropical storms and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, 1995 - 2009. Allison was a subtropical storm (coded blue). Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

The latest long-range computer model guidance suggests there's no reason to suspect that the first two weeks of this year's hurricane season will bring any unusual activity. Climatologically, June is typically the quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season. On average, we see only one named storm every two years in June. Only one major hurricane has made landfall in June--Category 4 Hurricane Audrey of 1957, which struck the Texas/Louisiana border area on June 27 of that year, killing 550. The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. In the fifteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been eleven June named storms (if we include 2008's Tropical Storm Arthur, which really formed on May 31). Five tropical storms have formed in the first half of June in that 14-year period, giving a historical 36% chance of a first-half-of-June named storm. Five June storms in the past 14 years have passed close enough to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill location to have caused significant transport had there been an oil slick on the surface.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are at record high levels over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America this year (Figure 2). As I discussed in my May 15 post, the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Central America (20°W - 80°W), is called the Main Development Region (MDR) because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were an eye-opening 1.46°C above average during April. This is the third straight record warm month, and the warmest anomaly measured for any month--by a remarkable 0.2°C. The previous record warmest anomalies for the Atlantic MDR were set in June 2005 and March 2010, at 1.26°C. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs. The AO and NAO are climate patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean related to fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores-Bermuda High. If the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), this creates a weak Azores-Bermuda High, which reduces the trade winds circulating around the High. During December - February, we had the most negative AO/NAO since records began in 1950, and this caused trade winds between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the hurricane Main Development Region to slow to 1 - 2 m/s (2.2 - 4.5 mph) below average. Slower trade winds mean less mixing of the surface waters with cooler waters down deep, plus less evaporational cooling of the surface water. As a result, the ocean heated up significantly, relative to normal, over the winter and Spring.

However, over the past two weeks, the AO/NAO has trended close to average, and trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to near normal speeds as the Bermuda-Azores High has strengthened. SST anomalies have been falling in recent weeks, and will continue to fall in the coming two weeks, based on the latest forecast from the GFS model. While I expect that record SSTs will continue into mid-June, current trends suggest that by July, SST anomalies will be close to what they were in 2005. SST anomalies in the MDR could fall below the record 2005 levels by the peak part of hurricane season, August - October. Even so, SSTs in the Caribbean this year will be plenty warm to cause an abnormal number of major hurricanes. These warm SSTs may also cause extensive damage to the coral reefs, which suffered huge die-offs from the record SSTs of 2005.

Typically, June storms only form over the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Gulf Stream waters just offshore Florida, where water temperatures are warmest. SSTs are 28 - 30°C in these regions, which is about 0.5 - 1.5°C above average for this time of year. June storms typically form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance. African tropical waves, which serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes, are usually too far south in June to trigger tropical storm formation. Every so often, a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa moves far enough north to act as a seed for a June tropical storm. This was the case for Arthur of 2008 (which also had major help from the spinning remnants of the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Alma). Another way to get Atlantic June storms is for a disturbed weather area in the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to push north into the Western Caribbean and spawn a storm there. This was the case for Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006 (which may have also had help from an African wave). SSTs are too cold in June to allow storms to develop between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands--there has only been once such development in the historical record--Ana of 1979.


Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for May 31, 2010. SSTs averaged more that 1°C above average over the entire tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Note the large region of below average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, signaling the possible start of an La Niña episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream's band of strong high-altitude winds is the main source of wind shear in June over the Atlantic hurricane breeding grounds, since the jet is very active and located quite far south this time of year.

The jet stream over the past few weeks has been locked into a pattern where a southern branch (the subtropical jet stream) brings high wind shear over the Caribbean, and a northern branch (the polar jet stream) brings high wind shear offshore of New England. This leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches off the coast of North Carolina, which is where Invest 90L formed.

The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming ten days (Figure 3.) This means that the waters offshore of North Carolina is the most likely place for a tropical storm to form during this period, though the southwestern Caribbean will at times have shear low enough to allow tropical storm formation. The Gulf of Mexico is forecast to have wind shear too high to support a tropical storm during the first half of June. None of our reliable forecast models call for tropical storm formation over the coming 7 days, though the NOGAPS model indicates the possibility of a tropical disturbance forming off the coast of Nicaragua on Friday.


Figure 3. Wind shear forecast from the 00Z GMT June 1, 2010 run of the GFS model for June 7. Currently, the polar jet stream is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore New England, and the subtropical jet is bringing high wind shear to the northern Caribbean. This leaves the waters off the coast of North Carolina and southern Caribbean under low shear, making these areas the most favored region for tropical storm formation over the next 7 - 10 days. Wind speeds are given in m/s; multiply by two to get a rough conversion to knots. Thus, the red regions of low shear range from 0 - 16 knots.

Dry air and African dust
It's too early to concern ourselves with dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, since these dust outbreaks don't make it all the way to the June tropical cyclone breeding grounds in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Developing storms do have to contend with dry air from Canada moving off the U.S. coast; this was a key reason why our first "Invest" of the year, 90L off the coast of South Carolina, never became a subtropical storm.

Dust expert Professor Amato Evan of the University of Virginia has posted his forecast for African dust for the 2010 hurricane season. Dr. Evan is predicting that due to plentiful rains during last year's rainy season over the Sahel region of Africa, and near average amounts of African dust observed in May 2010 and during the 2009 hurricane season, we can expect near average or moderately below average levels of dust over the tropical Atlantic during the 2010 hurricane season.

Steering currents
The forecast steering current pattern over the next two weeks is a typical one for June, with an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs will be frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2009 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, that steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary
Wind shear over the main breeding grounds for June tropical cyclones, the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean, is expected to be high enough over the next two weeks to give us an average chance of a June named storm. I give a 30% chance of a named storm between now and June 15, and a 60% chance for the entire month of June. There is approximately a 30% chance of a June storm passing close enough to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill to cause significant transport of the oil. See my post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, for more information on this.

Agatha the 6th deadliest Eastern Pacific storm on record
Central America's Tropical Storm Agatha is now the 6th deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones on record. Agatha was a tropical storm for just 12 hours, making landfall Saturday on the Pacific coast of Guatemala as a 45 mph tropical storm. However, the storm brought huge amounts of rain--as much as 36 inches--to the high mountains of Guatemala. So far, flooding and landslides have killed at least 123 people in Guatemala, with 59 others missing. The storm also killed 9 in neighboring El Salvador, and 14 in Honduras.


Figure 4. Journey to the center of the Earth: a massive sinkhole 200 feet (60 meters) deep opened up in the capital, Guatemala City, after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. How are they going to fix this hole? Wow! It doesn't even look real.

Guatemala's worst flooding disaster in recent history was due to Hurricane Stan of 2005, which killed 1,513. The deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record for Guatemala was Hurricane Paul of 1982, which made landfall in Guatemala as a tropical depression. Flooding from Paul's rains killed 620 people in Guatemala.

Oil spill update
Light onshore winds out of the south to southwest are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico all week, resulting increased threats of oil to the Alabama and Mississippi barrier islands, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These persistent southwesterly winds will likely bring oil very close to the Florida Panhandle by Saturday.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Today, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays during hurricane season. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season

I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Portlight receives a major grant to fund U.S. disaster relief work
The Christopher and Dana Reeve Foundation has announced today that it is awarding a Quality of Life Grant in the amount of $21,500 to Portlight Strategies, Inc. The grant will fund a ready-to-deploy container specifically outfitted to serve the immediate needs of people with disabilities in the aftermath of hurricanes and other domestic natural disasters. To read more about this award, check out the Portlight blog. Congratulations, Portlight team!

Portlight continues its Haiti response
Ready or not, the rainy season is here for Haiti. Portlight has done a tremendous amount to help the Haitians get ready for the upcoming hurricane season, as detailed in the Haitian Relief Recap blog post made last week. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to Portlight's efforts in Haiti.


Figure 5. A portion of the 30,000 pounds of rice donated to Haitian earthquake victims by Portlight earlier this month, shipped via the schooner Halie and Mathew.

I'll be back Wednesday afternoon with an analysis of the new Colorado State University hurricane forecast issued by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, due out on June 2.

Jeff Masters

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924. MiamiHurricanes09
11:39 PM GMT on June 01, 2010
Quoting hurricane07:
No need to go overboard.WHAT HAVE I DONE TO DESERVE THIS.NEVER MIND IM ALREADY SICK OF YOU ALL.THIS IS A WEATHER BLOG, MORE LIKE A BULLIES BLOG.I AM A FEMALE I AM INTERESTED IN WEATHER AND I AM NOT HIM.I SWEAR IF YOU COULD SEE ME IN REAL LIFE YOU WOULD KNOW.STOP STOP STOP.I ALWAYS ADMIRED THIS BLOG.BUT NOW IT SEEMS THAT IF YOU ARE NEW YOU WILL GET RIPPED APART LIKE PRAY.THE BLOG IS JUST NOT THE BLOG.ITS MORE OF THE JFV BLOG.YUP MMM HMM.SEEMS LIKE THE ONLY WAY TO FIT IN IS TO MAKE FUN OF THE GUY WHICH IS JUST REAL SAD ON YOU ALL.SHAME ON YOU ALL.THIS IS AWFULL.WHERE IS SOMEONE THAT BELIVES ME.YOU KNOW WHAT... WHATEVER IM WASTING MY YOUTH.IM 14 FOR PETE SAKE.BY THE TIME THIS HURRICANE SEASON IS OVER ILL PROBALLY HAVE MULTIPLE GRAY HATRS.
Post a profile pic of you and then I'll see if you are or are not JFV.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
922. charley11
11:38 PM GMT on June 01, 2010
Uh, hurricane 07? If you weren't JFV you wouldn't be freaking out so much and screaming your a female. You'd react like JLPR in post 846.

You're JFV.
921. MiamiHurricanes09
11:38 PM GMT on June 01, 2010
Quoting hurricane07:
No need to go overboard.WHAT HAVE I DONE TO DESERVE THIS.NEVER MIND IM ALREADY SICK OF YOU ALL.THIS IS A WEATHER BLOG, MORE LIKE A BULLIES BLOG.I AM A FEMALE I AM INTERESTED IN WEATHER AND I AM NOT HIM.I SWEAR IF YOU COULD SEE ME IN REAL LIFE YOU WOULD KNOW.STOP STOP STOP.I ALWAYS ADMIRED THIS BLOG.BUT NOW IT SEEMS THAT IF YOU ARE NEW YOU WILL GET RIPPED APART LIKE PRAY.THE BLOG IS JUST NOT THE BLOG.ITS MORE OF THE JFV BLOG.YUP MMM HMM.SEEMS LIKE THE ONLY WAY TO FIT IN IS TO MAKE FUN OF THE GUY WHICH IS JUST REAL SAD ON YOU ALL.SHAME ON YOU ALL.THIS IS AWFULL.WHERE IS SOMEONE THAT BELIVES ME.YOU KNOW WHAT... WHATEVER IM WASTING MY YOUTH.IM 14 FOR PETE SAKE.BY THE TIME THIS HURRICANE SEASON IS OVER ILL PROBALLY HAVE MULTIPLE GRAY HATRS.
LOL, Ok, you can calm down JFV.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
920. MississippiWx
11:38 PM GMT on June 01, 2010
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


Shear over the Gulf and NW Caribbean will be weakening some, especially over the NW Caribbean:



SAL is a little high, but we needn't worry about that now. It will likely not be a huge issue this season:



Not going to lie...it's a little terrifying how favorable shear is for the majority of the Tropical Atlantic.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
918. GeoffreyWPB
11:37 PM GMT on June 01, 2010
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE JUN 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS OF PACIFIC TROPICAL
STORM AGATHA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

If my local Met. forecast a 10% chance of rain, I would leave the umbrella at home.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11014
917. MississippiWx
11:37 PM GMT on June 01, 2010
Quoting hurricane07:
No need to go overboard.WHAT HAVE I DONE TO DESERVE THIS.NEVER MIND IM ALREADY SICK OF YOU ALL.THIS IS A WEATHER BLOG, MORE LIKE A BULLIES BLOG.I AM A FEMALE I AM INTERESTED IN WEATHER AND I AM NOT HIM.I SWEAR IF YOU COULD SEE ME IN REAL LIFE YOU WOULD KNOW.STOP STOP STOP.I ALWAYS ADMIRED THIS BLOG.BUT NOW IT SEEMS THAT IF YOU ARE NEW YOU WILL GET RIPPED APART LIKE PRAY.THE BLOG IS JUST NOT THE BLOG.ITS MORE OF THE JFV BLOG.YUP MMM HMM.SEEMS LIKE THE ONLY WAY TO FIT IN IS TO MAKE FUN OF THE GUY WHICH IS JUST REAL SAD ON YOU ALL.SHAME ON YOU ALL.THIS IS AWFULL.WHERE IS SOMEONE THAT BELIVES ME.YOU KNOW WHAT... WHATEVER IM WASTING MY YOUTH.IM 14 FOR PETE SAKE.BY THE TIME THIS HURRICANE SEASON IS OVER ILL PROBALLY HAVE MULTIPLE GRAY HATRS.


LMAO...Settle down, JFV. It's all in good fun.

Anyway, sorry guys. I don't usually get off topic, but the weather is a little boring, to be honest.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
915. stormhank
11:36 PM GMT on June 01, 2010
Not sayin no one wants to get a hit this year from a bad storm, but if we have the type season where u get 15 named or more storms I hate to say Im afraid someone will prob get a landfall unless we have a dominant trough set up off east coast.. but from what ive read nuetral///La Nina yrs tend to have fewer storms curving out to sea right????
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1385
914. MiamiHurricanes09
11:35 PM GMT on June 01, 2010
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


Shear over the Gulf and NW Caribbean will be weakening some, especially over the NW Caribbean:



SAL is a little high, but we needn't worry about that now. It will likely not be a huge issue this season:

WOW, the subtropical jet is almost gone (well will be gone soon).
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
911. Cavin Rawlins
11:33 PM GMT on June 01, 2010
Quoting weather42009:


I asked a question and you gave me three charts, lol. You sure know how to validate your answers. Appreciate it.

One thing I do not understand is that you said, dry air above moist air is unstable. Why? Does this occur in developing tropical cyclones as well and if not, why?


Why do I feel I'm being tested, lol.

Dry air is heavier than moist air thus moist air will continue to rise upward in dry air since it is lighter. However, moisture air will not rise very far in too much dry air because it can lead to evaporation. If moist air keeps rising and evaporating in the dry air then eventually that dry air becomes moister and moister until it is sufficiently moist to allow air to rise without evaporation.

This occurs in stagnant dry air. It is very difficult to moisten a dry airmass if it keeps getting a steady supply of dry air as with 91L.

You can see this with the passage of tropical waves in the tropical Atlantic during the peak of the hurricane season, when dry air becomes moister with each passage of a tropical wave, making the airmass more moist for the tropical waves behind. The dry air over the Trop Atl is often stagnant and thus is easier to modify.

In developing tropical cyclones the release of latent heat from condensation (not evaporation) causes the instability. The heat generated from condensation warms the air aloft and cause it to rise further. In this case you need a deep layer of moisture typically between 850 mb and 400 mb to keep this positive feedback loop.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
910. MrstormX
11:33 PM GMT on June 01, 2010
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
610 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

ILZ014-022-INZ001-020115-
COOK-WILL-LAKE IN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHICAGO...JOLIET...GARY
610 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

AT 609 PM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OVER EASTERN WILL COUNTY BETWEEN PEOTONE AND
MONEE...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE INTO THE PARK FOREST...STEEGER AND CRETE
AREAS BY AROUND 645 PM CDT...AND WILL BE NEAR CHICAGO HEIGHTS BY
AROUND 7 PM CDT. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH...PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL...AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
SUBURBS EARLY THIS EVENING.

$$

RATZER
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4436
909. Chucktown
11:33 PM GMT on June 01, 2010
130
abnt20 knhc 012330
twoat

tropical weather outlook
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl 800 pm edt tue jun 1 2010

for the north atlantic...caribbean sea and the gulf of mexico...

showers and thunderstorms have decreased in the northwestern caribbean sea in association with the remnants of pacific tropical storm agatha. upper-level winds are not conducive for development and there is a low chance...10 percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. this system is expected to move little over the next day or so.

elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1729
908. MississippiWx
11:33 PM GMT on June 01, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:



So you raised your forecast in 5 days?


748. hurricanelover236 4:58 PM EDT on May 27, 2010


LOL...buuuurnnn.

Anyone who thinks this season isn't going to be active and devastating just isn't realistic. Let's just hope storms impact sparsely populated areas when they do have to impact somewhere.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
907. MrstormX
11:32 PM GMT on June 01, 2010
Storm just appeared outside my house literally out of nowhere!
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4436
906. JamesSA
11:32 PM GMT on June 01, 2010
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Yeah looks like they cut the choke/kill lines to give what I came to think of last night as "the claw" (I was tired) more of a chance on the riser itself. There remains the difficult issue of the drill pipe inside the riser, especially if they hit a connection between sections.

I hope it works this time.
I like to call it 'The Jaws of Death'.
Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 579
905. nrtiwlnvragn
11:31 PM GMT on June 01, 2010
Quoting hurricanelover236:
At the end of the hurricane season im gonna be back on here saying I told you so once again. This hurricane season will not be half as active as forecast. At most 15 storms and most of these wil be steered out to sea. Dont panic because once again the season was hyped for nothing.



So you raised your forecast in 5 days?


748. hurricanelover236 4:58 PM EDT on May 27, 2010
Quoting hurricanelover236:
I have to say its really funny to see NOAA once again make a fool of themselves and overyhype the forecast. Im telling you people wind shear is not gonna weaken. 10 storms at the max
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10961
904. WatchingThisOne
11:30 PM GMT on June 01, 2010
Quoting pottery:

Looks like they are at it again, too...


Yeah looks like they cut the choke/kill lines to give what I came to think of last night as "the claw" (I was tired) more of a chance on the riser itself. There remains the difficult issue of the drill pipe inside the riser, especially if they hit a connection between sections.

I hope it works this time.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1262
903. MiamiHurricanes09
11:30 PM GMT on June 01, 2010
Quoting pottery:

Was that the one where she had to go out and buy smokes for her Pop, while the surge was coming in?
AH! The memories...
Even those Bad ones.
ROFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
902. MississippiWx
11:29 PM GMT on June 01, 2010
Quoting sirmaelstrom:


LOL. What if it's just everybody but you? [Play Twilight Zone music]


AHHHHH! Get me out! LOL...that dog that I posted in the GIF image above had the right idea if that's the case...
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
901. MrstormX
11:29 PM GMT on June 01, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It's just a cloud under some other clouds, but I'm sure it is.


I know lol, at first I thought I was seeing a funnel but then noticed there was no rotation visible.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4436
Oss...too funny. My last dramallama was named Charley. That's why I'm here.

Grothar - guess my snowy white hair is showing with the Will Robinson comment.

Seriously, I am looking for expert advice on whether this system will bring me rain. Looks to be moving more eastward following the "high line?"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MrstormX:
Anyways back to the weather... I took a picture of what I believe to be a scud cloud yesterday from the storm that Rained out Obama's Memorial day cemetery visit. Is that unique enough to be a wunderphoto?
It's just a cloud under some other clouds, but I'm sure it is.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Or maybe I'm watching too much CSi: Miami? LOL.


LOL...I think that helped you pick up on some clues, such as: ^^ -- XP XD...maybe I'm the only one who noticed the "facial expressions."
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
I am going to clear this whole JFV thing up right now. JFV is really...wait a minute, I got my elbow caught in my ear again. Be back shortly.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11014
891. MississippiWx 4:25 PM PDT on June 01, 2010

Maybe everyone on this blog is JFV. Maybe he's just one huge schizophrenic and this entire blog is ran by JFV!


sounds like a jacked-up Matrix....
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, I knew it was JFV. JFV always makes up stories, remember about 16 year old Tammy that survived a hurricanes (I believe).

Was that the one where she had to go out and buy smokes for her Pop, while the surge was coming in?
AH! The memories...
Even those Bad ones.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Maybe everyone on this blog is JFV. Maybe he's just one huge schizophrenic and this entire blog is ran by JFV!


LOL. What if it's just everybody but you? [Play Twilight Zone music]
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
Maybe everyone on this blog is JFV. Maybe he's just one huge schizophrenic and this entire blog is ran by JFV!
LOL Medicine probably would help!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyways back to the weather... I took a picture of what I believe to be a scud cloud yesterday from the storm that Rained out Obama's Memorial day cemetery visit. Is that unique enough to be a wunderphoto?
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4436
Maybe everyone on this blog is JFV. Maybe he's just one huge schizophrenic and this entire blog is ran by JFV!
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
Evening all...I know that all the experts in the field are predicting a very busy season based on all the elements coming together.but I have a couple ?'s.....When is the current shear over gulf northern carribean expected to ease and will the SAL be a big player this year??? Thanks as usual for all your responses.
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1385
Quoting MrstormX:


Huh, I don't think Miami was talking to you.... now im really confused
lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
nvr mind
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4436
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Well we were assuming that you are JFV because of multiple reasons, no need to go overboard.
i meant ok to the other post.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Miami, you may be on to something about the imposter thing...
Or maybe I'm watching too much CSi: Miami? LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Weather456:


Mid levels based on the water vapor flow, rgb images, GFS soundings and upper air obs.

Mid Level flow suggest where the greatest dry air flow is.


GFS sounding at 18N-85W revealed mid-level dry air exists above a moist column.



Upper air time cross section of Belize, upwind of 91L showing mid-level dry air intrusion above a moist column.




I suspect that the blow up in convection was due to lower level moist air being forced to rise in a layer of dry air which is an unstable situation. This type of instability is called convective instability. Eventually too much evaporation in the dry air layer leads to subsidence and outflow boundaries in the form of arc clouds and thunderstorms collapse.


I asked a question and you gave me three charts, lol. You sure know how to validate your answers. Appreciate it.

One thing I do not understand is that you said, dry air above moist air is unstable. Why? Does this occur in developing tropical cyclones as well and if not, why?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Well we were assuming that you are JFV because of multiple reasons, no need to go overboard.
ok
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

LOL I was thinking last night "Boy, I would'nt want to get my finger caught in that shear/grabber/squasher thingy"

Looks like they are at it again, too...
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Miami, you may be on to something about the imposter thing...
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
Quoting Makoto1:
I find it amusing that you remember all of JFV's exploits and the only one the sticks out to me from watching was the little tropicalamanda thing he did... And that's only because the remnants of Ike moved up here and caused 75 mph winds so there really was a teenage girl into meteorology that was in Ike... sort of.

Okay now back to the tropics... I hope.
LMAO! I remember tropicalamanda!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Weather456:


Mid levels based on the water vapor flow, rgb images, GFS soundings

Mid Level flow suggest where the greatest dry air flow is.


GFS sounding at 18N-85W revealed mid-level dry air exists above a moist column.



Upper air time cross section of Belize, upwind of 91L showing mid-level dry air intrusion above a moist column.




I suspect that the blow up in convection was due to lower level moist air being forced to rise in a layer of dry air which is an unstable situation. This type of instability is called convective instability. Eventually too much evaporation in the dry air layer leads to subsidence and outflow boundaries in the form of arc clouds and thunderstorms collapse.
At least we get classes out of these blob/TC wannabees. Thanks 456
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Quoting WatchingThisOne:


You should have seen what they were up to in the middle of the night. It was like watching brain surgery on a rolling ship. It is amazing what they can do with those robot arms, particularly with things tossing to and fro in the currents.

LOL I was thinking last night "Boy, I would'nt want to get my finger caught in that shear/grabber/squasher thingy"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane07:
Sice everyone is saying im this jfv dude.I will never post on this blog ever not unless I have to.I tried to come on here thinking about discussing weather but oh well.I guess.I'm not going to argue with you people trying to prove myself.I'm wasting my energy.It was nice getting to know a few of you though.FYI elconando I was trying to have people get to know me.Thanks alexhurricanes and w456 and ogssess,and pottery.This blog is like a class full of bullies.
Well we were assuming that you are JFV because of multiple reasons, no need to go overboard.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting JLPR2:


I believe it was on Sunday I think, he got banned, no idea if it was permanent or just 24hrs


Didn't he get on last night? Or was I dreaming? Or a JFV imposter perhaps?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11014
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
drama lama land


I just could not resist :)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I find it amusing that you remember all of JFV's exploits and the only one the sticks out to me from watching was the little tropicalamanda thing he did... And that's only because the remnants of Ike moved up here and caused 75 mph winds so there really was a teenage girl into meteorology that was in Ike... sort of.

Okay now back to the tropics... I hope.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sice everyone is saying im this jfv dude.I will never post on this blog ever not unless I have to.I tried to come on here thinking about discussing weather but oh well.I guess.I'm not going to argue with you people trying to prove myself.I'm wasting my energy.It was nice getting to know a few of you though.FYI elconando I was trying to have people get to know me.Thanks alexhurricanes and w456 and ogssess,and pottery.This blog is like a class full of bullies.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.