The hurricane season of 2010 arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2010

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The hurricane season of 2010 is upon us. With unprecedented sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, El Niño gone and possibly transitioning to La Niña, a massive oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico, a million earthquake refugees in Haiti at the mercy of a hurricane strike, and an ever-increasing number of people living on our coasts, the arrival of this year's hurricane season comes with an unusually ominous tone. NOAA is forecasting a very active and possibly hyperactive season, and Dr. Bill Gray has said he expects "a hell of a year." However, our ability to forecast hurricane activity months in advance is limited, and we don't yet know how the large scale weather patterns like the Bermuda High will set up during the peak part of hurricane season. In particular, I very much doubt that we are in for a repeat of the unprecedented violence of the Hurricane Season of 2005, with its 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes. While sea surface temperatures are currently warmer this year than in 2005, that year featured some very unusual atmospheric circulation patterns, with a very strong ridge of high pressure over the eastern U.S., record drought in the Amazon, and very low surface pressures over the Atlantic. A repeat of 2005's weather patterns is unlikely, though I am expecting we will get at least four major hurricanes this year. An average year sees just two major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Tracks of all June tropical storms and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, 1995 - 2009. Allison was a subtropical storm (coded blue). Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

The latest long-range computer model guidance suggests there's no reason to suspect that the first two weeks of this year's hurricane season will bring any unusual activity. Climatologically, June is typically the quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season. On average, we see only one named storm every two years in June. Only one major hurricane has made landfall in June--Category 4 Hurricane Audrey of 1957, which struck the Texas/Louisiana border area on June 27 of that year, killing 550. The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. In the fifteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been eleven June named storms (if we include 2008's Tropical Storm Arthur, which really formed on May 31). Five tropical storms have formed in the first half of June in that 14-year period, giving a historical 36% chance of a first-half-of-June named storm. Five June storms in the past 14 years have passed close enough to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill location to have caused significant transport had there been an oil slick on the surface.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are at record high levels over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America this year (Figure 2). As I discussed in my May 15 post, the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Central America (20°W - 80°W), is called the Main Development Region (MDR) because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were an eye-opening 1.46°C above average during April. This is the third straight record warm month, and the warmest anomaly measured for any month--by a remarkable 0.2°C. The previous record warmest anomalies for the Atlantic MDR were set in June 2005 and March 2010, at 1.26°C. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs. The AO and NAO are climate patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean related to fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores-Bermuda High. If the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), this creates a weak Azores-Bermuda High, which reduces the trade winds circulating around the High. During December - February, we had the most negative AO/NAO since records began in 1950, and this caused trade winds between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the hurricane Main Development Region to slow to 1 - 2 m/s (2.2 - 4.5 mph) below average. Slower trade winds mean less mixing of the surface waters with cooler waters down deep, plus less evaporational cooling of the surface water. As a result, the ocean heated up significantly, relative to normal, over the winter and Spring.

However, over the past two weeks, the AO/NAO has trended close to average, and trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to near normal speeds as the Bermuda-Azores High has strengthened. SST anomalies have been falling in recent weeks, and will continue to fall in the coming two weeks, based on the latest forecast from the GFS model. While I expect that record SSTs will continue into mid-June, current trends suggest that by July, SST anomalies will be close to what they were in 2005. SST anomalies in the MDR could fall below the record 2005 levels by the peak part of hurricane season, August - October. Even so, SSTs in the Caribbean this year will be plenty warm to cause an abnormal number of major hurricanes. These warm SSTs may also cause extensive damage to the coral reefs, which suffered huge die-offs from the record SSTs of 2005.

Typically, June storms only form over the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Gulf Stream waters just offshore Florida, where water temperatures are warmest. SSTs are 28 - 30°C in these regions, which is about 0.5 - 1.5°C above average for this time of year. June storms typically form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance. African tropical waves, which serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes, are usually too far south in June to trigger tropical storm formation. Every so often, a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa moves far enough north to act as a seed for a June tropical storm. This was the case for Arthur of 2008 (which also had major help from the spinning remnants of the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Alma). Another way to get Atlantic June storms is for a disturbed weather area in the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to push north into the Western Caribbean and spawn a storm there. This was the case for Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006 (which may have also had help from an African wave). SSTs are too cold in June to allow storms to develop between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands--there has only been once such development in the historical record--Ana of 1979.


Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for May 31, 2010. SSTs averaged more that 1°C above average over the entire tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Note the large region of below average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, signaling the possible start of an La Niña episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream's band of strong high-altitude winds is the main source of wind shear in June over the Atlantic hurricane breeding grounds, since the jet is very active and located quite far south this time of year.

The jet stream over the past few weeks has been locked into a pattern where a southern branch (the subtropical jet stream) brings high wind shear over the Caribbean, and a northern branch (the polar jet stream) brings high wind shear offshore of New England. This leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches off the coast of North Carolina, which is where Invest 90L formed.

The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming ten days (Figure 3.) This means that the waters offshore of North Carolina is the most likely place for a tropical storm to form during this period, though the southwestern Caribbean will at times have shear low enough to allow tropical storm formation. The Gulf of Mexico is forecast to have wind shear too high to support a tropical storm during the first half of June. None of our reliable forecast models call for tropical storm formation over the coming 7 days, though the NOGAPS model indicates the possibility of a tropical disturbance forming off the coast of Nicaragua on Friday.


Figure 3. Wind shear forecast from the 00Z GMT June 1, 2010 run of the GFS model for June 7. Currently, the polar jet stream is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore New England, and the subtropical jet is bringing high wind shear to the northern Caribbean. This leaves the waters off the coast of North Carolina and southern Caribbean under low shear, making these areas the most favored region for tropical storm formation over the next 7 - 10 days. Wind speeds are given in m/s; multiply by two to get a rough conversion to knots. Thus, the red regions of low shear range from 0 - 16 knots.

Dry air and African dust
It's too early to concern ourselves with dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, since these dust outbreaks don't make it all the way to the June tropical cyclone breeding grounds in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Developing storms do have to contend with dry air from Canada moving off the U.S. coast; this was a key reason why our first "Invest" of the year, 90L off the coast of South Carolina, never became a subtropical storm.

Dust expert Professor Amato Evan of the University of Virginia has posted his forecast for African dust for the 2010 hurricane season. Dr. Evan is predicting that due to plentiful rains during last year's rainy season over the Sahel region of Africa, and near average amounts of African dust observed in May 2010 and during the 2009 hurricane season, we can expect near average or moderately below average levels of dust over the tropical Atlantic during the 2010 hurricane season.

Steering currents
The forecast steering current pattern over the next two weeks is a typical one for June, with an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs will be frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2009 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, that steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary
Wind shear over the main breeding grounds for June tropical cyclones, the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean, is expected to be high enough over the next two weeks to give us an average chance of a June named storm. I give a 30% chance of a named storm between now and June 15, and a 60% chance for the entire month of June. There is approximately a 30% chance of a June storm passing close enough to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill to cause significant transport of the oil. See my post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, for more information on this.

Agatha the 6th deadliest Eastern Pacific storm on record
Central America's Tropical Storm Agatha is now the 6th deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones on record. Agatha was a tropical storm for just 12 hours, making landfall Saturday on the Pacific coast of Guatemala as a 45 mph tropical storm. However, the storm brought huge amounts of rain--as much as 36 inches--to the high mountains of Guatemala. So far, flooding and landslides have killed at least 123 people in Guatemala, with 59 others missing. The storm also killed 9 in neighboring El Salvador, and 14 in Honduras.


Figure 4. Journey to the center of the Earth: a massive sinkhole 200 feet (60 meters) deep opened up in the capital, Guatemala City, after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. How are they going to fix this hole? Wow! It doesn't even look real.

Guatemala's worst flooding disaster in recent history was due to Hurricane Stan of 2005, which killed 1,513. The deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record for Guatemala was Hurricane Paul of 1982, which made landfall in Guatemala as a tropical depression. Flooding from Paul's rains killed 620 people in Guatemala.

Oil spill update
Light onshore winds out of the south to southwest are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico all week, resulting increased threats of oil to the Alabama and Mississippi barrier islands, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These persistent southwesterly winds will likely bring oil very close to the Florida Panhandle by Saturday.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Today, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays during hurricane season. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season

I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Portlight receives a major grant to fund U.S. disaster relief work
The Christopher and Dana Reeve Foundation has announced today that it is awarding a Quality of Life Grant in the amount of $21,500 to Portlight Strategies, Inc. The grant will fund a ready-to-deploy container specifically outfitted to serve the immediate needs of people with disabilities in the aftermath of hurricanes and other domestic natural disasters. To read more about this award, check out the Portlight blog. Congratulations, Portlight team!

Portlight continues its Haiti response
Ready or not, the rainy season is here for Haiti. Portlight has done a tremendous amount to help the Haitians get ready for the upcoming hurricane season, as detailed in the Haitian Relief Recap blog post made last week. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to Portlight's efforts in Haiti.


Figure 5. A portion of the 30,000 pounds of rice donated to Haitian earthquake victims by Portlight earlier this month, shipped via the schooner Halie and Mathew.

I'll be back Wednesday afternoon with an analysis of the new Colorado State University hurricane forecast issued by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, due out on June 2.

Jeff Masters

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Okay I just got off work and I remember last night that they were talking about how this thing is dead. Can you tell me why it is that we are now talking about a system that has some or little potential?
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972. beell
Quoting Levi32:


It's also an adiabatic thing. Saturated low-level air will rise at the moist adiabatic rate (cools slower as it rises) in the moist layer, and then cool at the dry adiabatic rate (faster) once it rises into the mid-level dry layer. Over time this increases the lapse rate, and thus the instability.

However, this is usually only a conducive setup for explosive severe weather over the United States, for example, and is not favorable for tropical cyclones, because tropical cyclones rely on a completely moist air column and almost no downdrafts. Tropical cyclones require a big core to sustain them. Supercell thunderstorms do not, they are individual entities with large areas of sinking air in between them. This is different for MCSs(mesoscale convective systems) and MCCs, though, which do commonly have an entirely moist air column, similar to a tropical cyclone.


Backwards
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Quoting hurricane07:
Sice everyone is saying im this jfv dude.I will never post on this blog ever not unless I have to.I tried to come on here thinking about discussing weather but oh well.I guess.I'm not going to argue with you people trying to prove myself.I'm wasting my energy.It was nice getting to know a few of you though.FYI elconando I was trying to have people get to know me.Thanks alexhurricanes and w456 and ogssess,and pottery.This blog is like a class full of bullies.


What type of shower curtain do you have?
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970. xcool
OH MAN OH MAN..
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Quoting Levi32:


Weaker...is the word. It starts weakening a lot in June but will not disappear. If you notice 456 also implies it being a major moderator of tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico during the entire month.
Yeah I saw that.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Levi32:


Because clouds only exist in the troposphere, which is capped by the tropopause, the boundary between the troposphere and the stratosphere. The lower stratosphere is a massive inversion, which prevents air from rising and keeps all of the earth's weather contained in the troposphere (the lower atmosphere).
Dont super cell thunderstorms occasionally reach into the stratosphere?
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Quoting NOVArules:
Ok guys, This JFV thing is getting out of hand, you guys need to stop making fun of him, no matter how annoying he may be to you all
Yeah! back to weather.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah it's still there but there is definitely a quite rapid decrease in strength in 72 hours. Weather456 and I have agreed that it should be really weak by June 15th.


Weaker...is the word. It starts weakening a lot in June but will not completely disappear. That starts happening in July. If you notice 456 also implies it being a major moderator of tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico during the entire month.
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Quoting weather42009:


Thanks! Sorry to be such a bug but I have two final questions - why is dry air heavier than moist air and what do you mean by stagnant? I looked up the word stagnant but it tells me "without flowing or current". Is not the atmosphere always in motion.


It is no problem. I like to share what I know.

The answer to your first question has to do with chemistry. Air is comprised of oxygen, nitrogen, water vapor and other trace elements. It contains roughly (by molar content/volume) 78.08% nitrogen, 20.95% oxygen, 0.93% argon, 0.038% carbon dioxide, trace amounts of other gases, and a variable amount (average around 1%) of water vapor. Water vapor varies from 0-4%.

Water vapor is a light compound and oxygen and nitrogen are heavier elements. So if an air parcel has a greater number of heavier elements compared to water vapor (dry air) it will be heavier relative to an air parcel that has a greater number of water vapor molecules (moist air)

That is,

an air parcel with 1% of water vapor is lighter than an air parcel with 3% of water vapor because the ratio of heavier elements will vary with the ratio of water vapor molecules. This is air at the same temperature.

The answer to your second question is that yes the atmosphere is never ending turbulence but there are periods where air cannot move or I should airmass due to external influences. The airmass over texas in summer is actually a blocking ridge by which air flows around it, keeping the airmass undisturbed for weeks.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Ok guys, This JFV thing is getting out of hand, you guys need to stop making fun of him, no matter how annoying he may be to you all
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This is fun, I get severe weather ahead of the Iowa disturbance.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4436
Quoting Levi32:


I don't really see it disappearing. There will be periodic breaks in it across the Atlantic which is normal, but it is still quite present over the gulf and eastern Atlantic by 72 hours in that image. The subtropical jet won't start really disappearing in the SW Atlantic Basin until July.
Yeah it's still there but there is definitely a quite rapid decrease in strength in 72 hours. Weather456 and I have agreed that it should be really weak by June 15th.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
957. centralflaman 11:48 PM GMT on June 01, 2010
All of you people picking on JFV waste more space on this blog than he could ever do! It is ridiculous to watch grown ups pick on a learning disabled young adult!


lmao wait a minute a learning adult?? wow you must be new to the blog...
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All of you people picking on JFV waste more space on this blog than he could ever do! It is ridiculous to watch grown ups pick on a learning disabled young adult!
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Quoting CapnJak:


The JFV reponse is: F USTEDES PAZ.
ROFLMAO!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ILC197-020000-
/O.NEW.KLOT.SV.W.0020.100601T2335Z-100602T0000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
635 PM CDT TUE JUN 1 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 631 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
CRETE...OR NEAR STEGER...AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CRETE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES PER
HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR
YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

&&

LAT...LON 4139 8753 4139 8769 4145 8770 4147 8766
4147 8753 4141 8753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 250DEG 10KT 4143 8761
WIND...HAIL 60MPH 1.00IN

$$

RATZER
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4436
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Levi32, Did you notice the GFS destroying the subtropical jet so soon. Do you agree with this?


I don't really see it disappearing. There will be periodic breaks in it across the Atlantic which is normal, but it is still quite present over the gulf and eastern Atlantic by 72 hours in that image. The subtropical jet won't start really disappearing in the SW Atlantic Basin until July.
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JFV...the Where's Waldo of WU!!!!!!

:)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
952. xcool
WHAT'S GO ON NOW ??? LET ME GUESS drama
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Quoting hurricane07:
f YOU ALL PEACE.


The JFV reponse is: F USTEDES PAZ.
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Anyway, it has been fun. I'm out until later, guys! Keep JFV on a leash, will ya? LOL
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
949. JLPR2
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


Shear over the Gulf and NW Caribbean will be weakening some, especially over the NW Caribbean:



SAL is a little high, but we needn't worry about that now. It will likely not be a huge issue this season:



Come SAL!
I want a dry weekend and I'm willing to sacrifice my nose to allergies as long as it stays dry and sunny lol XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8514
Quoting ElConando:


You can always place he/she/it? on ignore.


2 problems... First its hard to know who JFV is given his constant switching, Two the blog is so obssesed with figuring out who JFV is that it takes away from the weather aspects. Even if I ignore they wont. IMO just IP ban him or report abuse to his server and be done with it.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4436
said from hurricane 07 i mean
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1385
JFV....the wonder blogger of the world...master of the names....but pure lack of knowledge....
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Quoting Murko:


How come clouds don't float away then? :/


Because clouds only exist in the troposphere, which is capped by the tropopause, the boundary between the troposphere and the stratosphere. The lower stratosphere is a massive inversion, which prevents air from rising and keeps all of the earth's weather contained in the troposphere (the lower atmosphere).
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Im assumin the "F" YOU ALL PEACE that the F dont stand for family or fun right? lol
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1385
Levi32, Did you notice the GFS destroying the subtropical jet so soon. Do you agree with this?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
942. Murko
Quoting Weather456:


Dry air is heavier than moist air


How come clouds don't float away then? :/
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Quoting MrstormX:
Isn't there a way to permanenetly IP block JFV from this blog, such as the system Wikipedia uses with IP block ranges.


You can always place he/she/it? on ignore.
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New Huricane season began today like I said numbers of times, if you want to learn and keep informed about weather this is the place to be.

We have here guys that knows what they are talking. I be looking foward to read Weather 456, Strom W, KOTG and other veterans of this blog the forrescast of the disturbace that could be the "next storm". This year have the potencial to be a one to remember based on what I read. Just hope that 2005 scenario doesn't repeat this year.
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Quoting hurricane07:
f YOU ALL PEACE.
ROFLMAO, bye JFV.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting NRAamy:
I ALWAYS ADMIRED THIS BLOG


and you just found out about this blog 2 weeks ago...yeah....uh huh....

back to the outhouse with you, sir....


LOL. The hints just keep on spewing out, don't they? I hope he never commits a crime. He'll get all of his aliases mixed up and they'll all point back to his actual identity and actual location.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
Isn't there a way to permanenetly IP block JFV from this blog, such as the system Wikipedia uses with IP block ranges.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4436
933. xcool
WOW SAL
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Quoting hurricane07:
Sorry but this is my first time posting and people on here are assuming im a damn coward that hides behind multiple sreen name.
Post a profile pic of you and then we'll believe you (female).
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Weather456:


Why do I feel I'm being tested, lol.

Dry air is heavier than moist air thus moist air will continue to rise upward in dry air since it is lighter. However, moisture air will not rise very far in too much dry air because it can lead to evaporation. If moist air keeps rising and evaporating in the dry air then eventually that dry air becomes moister and moister until it is sufficiently moist to allow air to rise without evaporation.

This occurs in stagnant dry air. It is very difficult to moisten a dry airmass if it keeps getting a steady supply of dry air as with 91L.

You can see this with the passage of tropical waves in the tropical Atlantic during the peak of the hurricane season, when dry air becomes moister with each passage of a tropical wave, making the airmass more moist for the tropical waves behind. The dry air over the Trop Atl is often stagnant and thus is easier to modify.

In developing tropical cyclones the release of latent heat from condensation (not evaporation) causes the instability. The heat generated from condensation warms the air aloft and cause it to rise further. In this case you need a deep layer of moisture typically between 850 mb and 400 mb to keep this positive feedback loop.


Thanks! Sorry to be such a bug but I have two final questions - why is dry air heavier than moist air and what do you mean by stagnant? I looked up the word stagnant but it tells me "without flowing or current". Is not the atmosphere always in motion.
Quoting NRAamy:
I ALWAYS ADMIRED THIS BLOG


and you just found out about this blog 2 weeks ago...yeah....uh huh....

back to the outhouse with you, sir....
LMAO
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
JFV is a transgender blogger?
ROFLMAO!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Weather456:


Why do I feel I'm being tested, lol.

Dry air is heavier than moist air thus moist air will continue to rise upward in dry air since it is lighter. However, moisture air will not rise very far in too much dry air because it can lead to evaporation. If moist air keeps rising and evaporating in the dry air then eventually that dry air becomes moister and moister until it is sufficiently moist to allow air to rise without evaporation.

This occurs in stagnant dry air. It is very difficult to moisten a dry airmass if it keeps getting a steady supply of dry air as with 91L.

You can see this with the passage of tropical waves in the tropical Atlantic during the peak of the hurricane season, when dry air becomes moister with each passage of a tropical wave, making the airmass more moist for the tropical waves behind.

In developing tropical cyclones the release of latent heat from condensation (not evaporation) causes the instability. The heat generated from condensation warms the air aloft and cause it to rise further. In this case you need a deep layer of moisture typically between 850 mb and 400 mb to keep this positive feedback loop.


It's also an adiabatic thing. Saturated low-level air will rise at the moist adiabatic rate (cools slower as it rises) in the moist layer, and then cool at the dry adiabatic rate (faster) once it rises into the mid-level dry layer. Over time this increases the lapse rate, and thus the instability.

However, this is usually only a conducive setup for explosive severe weather over the United States, for example, and is not favorable for tropical cyclones, because tropical cyclones rely on a completely moist air column and almost no downdrafts. Tropical cyclones require a big core to sustain them. Supercell thunderstorms do not, they are individual entities with large areas of sinking air in between them. This is different for MCSs(mesoscale convective systems) and MCCs, though, which do commonly have an entirely moist air column, similar to a tropical cyclone.
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Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


Calm Down...
Sorry but this is my first time posting and people on here are assuming im a damn coward that hides behind multiple sreen name.
All of the Usernames JFV has used this season so far:

1.FIU2010
2.Ocean24
3.FIUstudent
4.hurricane07

WOW. Well back to weather. I guess.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
I ALWAYS ADMIRED THIS BLOG


and you just found out about this blog 2 weeks ago...yeah....uh huh....

back to the outhouse with you, sir....
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
JFV is a transgender blogger?
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11002
Quoting hurricane07:
No need to go overboard.WHAT HAVE I DONE TO DESERVE THIS.NEVER MIND IM ALREADY SICK OF YOU ALL.THIS IS A WEATHER BLOG, MORE LIKE A BULLIES BLOG.I AM A FEMALE I AM INTERESTED IN WEATHER AND I AM NOT HIM.I SWEAR IF YOU COULD SEE ME IN REAL LIFE YOU WOULD KNOW.STOP STOP STOP.I ALWAYS ADMIRED THIS BLOG.BUT NOW IT SEEMS THAT IF YOU ARE NEW YOU WILL GET RIPPED APART LIKE PRAY.THE BLOG IS JUST NOT THE BLOG.ITS MORE OF THE JFV BLOG.YUP MMM HMM.SEEMS LIKE THE ONLY WAY TO FIT IN IS TO MAKE FUN OF THE GUY WHICH IS JUST REAL SAD ON YOU ALL.SHAME ON YOU ALL.THIS IS AWFULL.WHERE IS SOMEONE THAT BELIVES ME.YOU KNOW WHAT... WHATEVER IM WASTING MY YOUTH.IM 14 FOR PETE SAKE.BY THE TIME THIS HURRICANE SEASON IS OVER ILL PROBALLY HAVE MULTIPLE GRAY HATRS.
Post a profile pic of you and then I'll see if you are or are not JFV.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.