The hurricane season of 2010 arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2010

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The hurricane season of 2010 is upon us. With unprecedented sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, El Niño gone and possibly transitioning to La Niña, a massive oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico, a million earthquake refugees in Haiti at the mercy of a hurricane strike, and an ever-increasing number of people living on our coasts, the arrival of this year's hurricane season comes with an unusually ominous tone. NOAA is forecasting a very active and possibly hyperactive season, and Dr. Bill Gray has said he expects "a hell of a year." However, our ability to forecast hurricane activity months in advance is limited, and we don't yet know how the large scale weather patterns like the Bermuda High will set up during the peak part of hurricane season. In particular, I very much doubt that we are in for a repeat of the unprecedented violence of the Hurricane Season of 2005, with its 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes. While sea surface temperatures are currently warmer this year than in 2005, that year featured some very unusual atmospheric circulation patterns, with a very strong ridge of high pressure over the eastern U.S., record drought in the Amazon, and very low surface pressures over the Atlantic. A repeat of 2005's weather patterns is unlikely, though I am expecting we will get at least four major hurricanes this year. An average year sees just two major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Tracks of all June tropical storms and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, 1995 - 2009. Allison was a subtropical storm (coded blue). Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

The latest long-range computer model guidance suggests there's no reason to suspect that the first two weeks of this year's hurricane season will bring any unusual activity. Climatologically, June is typically the quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season. On average, we see only one named storm every two years in June. Only one major hurricane has made landfall in June--Category 4 Hurricane Audrey of 1957, which struck the Texas/Louisiana border area on June 27 of that year, killing 550. The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. In the fifteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been eleven June named storms (if we include 2008's Tropical Storm Arthur, which really formed on May 31). Five tropical storms have formed in the first half of June in that 14-year period, giving a historical 36% chance of a first-half-of-June named storm. Five June storms in the past 14 years have passed close enough to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill location to have caused significant transport had there been an oil slick on the surface.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are at record high levels over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America this year (Figure 2). As I discussed in my May 15 post, the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Central America (20°W - 80°W), is called the Main Development Region (MDR) because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were an eye-opening 1.46°C above average during April. This is the third straight record warm month, and the warmest anomaly measured for any month--by a remarkable 0.2°C. The previous record warmest anomalies for the Atlantic MDR were set in June 2005 and March 2010, at 1.26°C. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs. The AO and NAO are climate patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean related to fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores-Bermuda High. If the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), this creates a weak Azores-Bermuda High, which reduces the trade winds circulating around the High. During December - February, we had the most negative AO/NAO since records began in 1950, and this caused trade winds between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the hurricane Main Development Region to slow to 1 - 2 m/s (2.2 - 4.5 mph) below average. Slower trade winds mean less mixing of the surface waters with cooler waters down deep, plus less evaporational cooling of the surface water. As a result, the ocean heated up significantly, relative to normal, over the winter and Spring.

However, over the past two weeks, the AO/NAO has trended close to average, and trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to near normal speeds as the Bermuda-Azores High has strengthened. SST anomalies have been falling in recent weeks, and will continue to fall in the coming two weeks, based on the latest forecast from the GFS model. While I expect that record SSTs will continue into mid-June, current trends suggest that by July, SST anomalies will be close to what they were in 2005. SST anomalies in the MDR could fall below the record 2005 levels by the peak part of hurricane season, August - October. Even so, SSTs in the Caribbean this year will be plenty warm to cause an abnormal number of major hurricanes. These warm SSTs may also cause extensive damage to the coral reefs, which suffered huge die-offs from the record SSTs of 2005.

Typically, June storms only form over the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Gulf Stream waters just offshore Florida, where water temperatures are warmest. SSTs are 28 - 30°C in these regions, which is about 0.5 - 1.5°C above average for this time of year. June storms typically form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance. African tropical waves, which serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes, are usually too far south in June to trigger tropical storm formation. Every so often, a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa moves far enough north to act as a seed for a June tropical storm. This was the case for Arthur of 2008 (which also had major help from the spinning remnants of the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Alma). Another way to get Atlantic June storms is for a disturbed weather area in the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to push north into the Western Caribbean and spawn a storm there. This was the case for Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006 (which may have also had help from an African wave). SSTs are too cold in June to allow storms to develop between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands--there has only been once such development in the historical record--Ana of 1979.


Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for May 31, 2010. SSTs averaged more that 1°C above average over the entire tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Note the large region of below average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, signaling the possible start of an La Niña episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream's band of strong high-altitude winds is the main source of wind shear in June over the Atlantic hurricane breeding grounds, since the jet is very active and located quite far south this time of year.

The jet stream over the past few weeks has been locked into a pattern where a southern branch (the subtropical jet stream) brings high wind shear over the Caribbean, and a northern branch (the polar jet stream) brings high wind shear offshore of New England. This leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches off the coast of North Carolina, which is where Invest 90L formed.

The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming ten days (Figure 3.) This means that the waters offshore of North Carolina is the most likely place for a tropical storm to form during this period, though the southwestern Caribbean will at times have shear low enough to allow tropical storm formation. The Gulf of Mexico is forecast to have wind shear too high to support a tropical storm during the first half of June. None of our reliable forecast models call for tropical storm formation over the coming 7 days, though the NOGAPS model indicates the possibility of a tropical disturbance forming off the coast of Nicaragua on Friday.


Figure 3. Wind shear forecast from the 00Z GMT June 1, 2010 run of the GFS model for June 7. Currently, the polar jet stream is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore New England, and the subtropical jet is bringing high wind shear to the northern Caribbean. This leaves the waters off the coast of North Carolina and southern Caribbean under low shear, making these areas the most favored region for tropical storm formation over the next 7 - 10 days. Wind speeds are given in m/s; multiply by two to get a rough conversion to knots. Thus, the red regions of low shear range from 0 - 16 knots.

Dry air and African dust
It's too early to concern ourselves with dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, since these dust outbreaks don't make it all the way to the June tropical cyclone breeding grounds in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Developing storms do have to contend with dry air from Canada moving off the U.S. coast; this was a key reason why our first "Invest" of the year, 90L off the coast of South Carolina, never became a subtropical storm.

Dust expert Professor Amato Evan of the University of Virginia has posted his forecast for African dust for the 2010 hurricane season. Dr. Evan is predicting that due to plentiful rains during last year's rainy season over the Sahel region of Africa, and near average amounts of African dust observed in May 2010 and during the 2009 hurricane season, we can expect near average or moderately below average levels of dust over the tropical Atlantic during the 2010 hurricane season.

Steering currents
The forecast steering current pattern over the next two weeks is a typical one for June, with an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs will be frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2009 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, that steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary
Wind shear over the main breeding grounds for June tropical cyclones, the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean, is expected to be high enough over the next two weeks to give us an average chance of a June named storm. I give a 30% chance of a named storm between now and June 15, and a 60% chance for the entire month of June. There is approximately a 30% chance of a June storm passing close enough to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill to cause significant transport of the oil. See my post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, for more information on this.

Agatha the 6th deadliest Eastern Pacific storm on record
Central America's Tropical Storm Agatha is now the 6th deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones on record. Agatha was a tropical storm for just 12 hours, making landfall Saturday on the Pacific coast of Guatemala as a 45 mph tropical storm. However, the storm brought huge amounts of rain--as much as 36 inches--to the high mountains of Guatemala. So far, flooding and landslides have killed at least 123 people in Guatemala, with 59 others missing. The storm also killed 9 in neighboring El Salvador, and 14 in Honduras.


Figure 4. Journey to the center of the Earth: a massive sinkhole 200 feet (60 meters) deep opened up in the capital, Guatemala City, after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. How are they going to fix this hole? Wow! It doesn't even look real.

Guatemala's worst flooding disaster in recent history was due to Hurricane Stan of 2005, which killed 1,513. The deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record for Guatemala was Hurricane Paul of 1982, which made landfall in Guatemala as a tropical depression. Flooding from Paul's rains killed 620 people in Guatemala.

Oil spill update
Light onshore winds out of the south to southwest are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico all week, resulting increased threats of oil to the Alabama and Mississippi barrier islands, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These persistent southwesterly winds will likely bring oil very close to the Florida Panhandle by Saturday.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Today, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays during hurricane season. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season

I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Portlight receives a major grant to fund U.S. disaster relief work
The Christopher and Dana Reeve Foundation has announced today that it is awarding a Quality of Life Grant in the amount of $21,500 to Portlight Strategies, Inc. The grant will fund a ready-to-deploy container specifically outfitted to serve the immediate needs of people with disabilities in the aftermath of hurricanes and other domestic natural disasters. To read more about this award, check out the Portlight blog. Congratulations, Portlight team!

Portlight continues its Haiti response
Ready or not, the rainy season is here for Haiti. Portlight has done a tremendous amount to help the Haitians get ready for the upcoming hurricane season, as detailed in the Haitian Relief Recap blog post made last week. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to Portlight's efforts in Haiti.


Figure 5. A portion of the 30,000 pounds of rice donated to Haitian earthquake victims by Portlight earlier this month, shipped via the schooner Halie and Mathew.

I'll be back Wednesday afternoon with an analysis of the new Colorado State University hurricane forecast issued by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, due out on June 2.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Weather456:


In yesterday's tropical update, I hinted to moisture reaching the islands. But today, I saw less than previously anticipated heading your way. Let me know if you guys get rain.
OK..I'll hold off on the sprinklers for a while :+]
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1073. cg2916
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Just a quick question. If in fact 91L is moving east what would be the chance for development then ? TIA


Slightly higher than NE, but still pretty low.

I mean, you have to remember, this thing is not organized at all. It doesn't even have an LLC. Even if it kept east, it would have a lot of work to do, and then it would run into Cuba, which would definitely kill it.

It is actually being sheared slightly. Even heading east would raise the shear a little.
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1072. bappit
Quoting Levi32:


So a parcel can't become unsaturated after becoming saturated? If the air in the mid-levels is dry enough then yes it can.


Not really an arguable issue. Just confuses things.
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1071. Levi32
Quoting Weather456:


yes it can...but
Its complicated....it can rise and cool further at DALR but it can also sink and warm at DALR once it becomes unsaturated. It depends on upward forces in the atmosphere.


This is exactly why a severe thunderstorm outbreak usually requires dynamic lifting. Mid-level dry air over low-level moist air is convectively unstable but only when the air is forced to rise.
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Quoting Levi32:


So a parcel can't become unsaturated after becoming saturated? If the air in the mid-levels is dry enough then yes it can.


yes it can...but
Its complicated....it can rise and cool further at DALR but it can also sink and warm at DALR once it becomes unsaturated. It depends on upward forces in the atmosphere.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1067. gator23
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Just a quick question. If in fact 91L is moving east what would be the chance for development then ? TIA


I just dont see it moving east frankly it is just getting wacked to pieces.
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1066. Becca36
Quoting Weather456:


The troposphere is capped by an inversion not in the stratosphere but rather in the tropopause.

The tropopause is a region between the troposphere and stratosphere where temperature increases with height. Air trying to rise within this layer will sink back down because it remains colder than the surrounding environment. Under intense conditions as in super cells and intense hurricanes, air can force through this seal.

The stratosphere as the name suggest has roughly the same temperature with height. It is isothermal.

The tropopause gives tropical cyclone their cirrus canopy. Imagine air forcing upwards, hitting the ceiling and spreading out but Coriolis turns these winds clockwise.

Thank you. Great post!
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That was impressive... Now for the diamond cable band saw.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
1064. bappit
And that there is just 5,000 barrels a day.
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1063. cg2916
Quoting P451:
SSD, Rainbow, Fronts enabled.



91L is REALLY losing its convection now, I think tonight might finish it, or at least get close We'll have to see when it's DMAX time.
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1062. Becca36
Quoting Weather456:


The troposphere is capped by an inversion not in the stratosphere but rather in the tropopause.

The tropopause is a region between the troposphere and stratosphere where temperature increases with height. Air trying to rise within this layer will sink back down because it remains colder than the surrounding environment. Under intense conditions as in super cells and intense hurricanes, air can force through this seal.

The stratosphere as the name suggest has roughly the same temperature with height. It is isothermal.

The tropopause gives tropical cyclone their cirrus canopy. Imagine air forcing upwards, hitting the ceiling and spreading out but Coriolis turns these winds clockwise.
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Quoting Weather456:


I causes alot of scrolling to find valid information.
Just a quick question. If in fact 91L is moving east what would be the chance for development then ? TIA
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
they made it through that distal riser section, which just fell away, leaving a short length of riser leading up to the kink, where where will make the next cut for the containment pipe.
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1058. Levi32
Quoting bappit:


That "would cause the mid-levels to cool faster than the low levels" is odd sounding. Not expecting the lower level to cool particularly. Surrounding warm air can replace rising air. Heat is being transported upwards, though.


Referring to the lapse rates as the air in each layer rises. It will cool slower as it rises in the moist lower layer than it will as it rises in the drier mid-level layer.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Its actually quite sad how many times it shows up if you have the page set to 200 comments. People really need to get over him. He's obviously much smarter than they perceive him to be since he's obviously doing this for attention.

The whole thing seems pretty childish and foolish.


I causes alot of scrolling to find valid information.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1056. Patrap
Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo canceled


by WWLTV.com

wwltv.com

Posted on June 1, 2010 at 4:09 PM

Updated today at 4:19 PM

GRAND ISLE, La. -- The Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo has been canceled because of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, but rodeo organizers are planning a fundraising concert in its place.

The Island Aid Concert will be held July 23, 24 and 25 in Grand Isle. All benefits from the event will go to the Grand Isle Alive Promotion Fund to aid in rebuilding the fishing and tourism industry of Grand Isle.

Concert organizers have yet to announce the musician lineup.

Officials said the rodeo was canceled because of the "overwhelming" focus on the oil spill containment efforts.

Established in 1928, the Grand Isle Tarpon Rodeo is the oldest competitive fishing rodeo in the country.

Head to the Tarpon Rodeo website for more.
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1054. Levi32
Quoting beell:
A parcel is not saturated until it reaches its LCL. Lifted Condensation Level. Then it follows the Moist Adiabatic Lapse Rate. A slower rate of cooling due to latent heat release.

Maybe if the parcel was saturated at the surface-then the moist lapse rate all the way up.

Really not an arguable issue. Check it out.



So a parcel can't become unsaturated after becoming saturated? If the air in the mid-levels is dry enough then yes it can.
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1053. bappit
Quoting Levi32:
This is an example of a convectively unstable situation, with a moist lower layer with mid-level dry air advecting over the top. Dynamic lifting forcing this air to rise would cause the mid-levels to cool faster than the low levels, increasing the atmospheric lapse rate, and thus, instability.



That "would cause the mid-levels to cool faster than the low levels" is odd sounding. Not expecting the lower level to cool particularly. Surrounding warm air can replace rising air. Heat is being transported upwards, though.
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Quoting Weather456:


The troposphere is capped by an inversion not in the stratosphere but rather in the tropopause.

The tropopause is a region between the troposphere and stratosphere where temperature increases with height. Air trying to rise within this layer will sink back down because it remains colder than the surrounding environment. Under intense conditions as in super cells and intense hurricanes, air can force through this seal.

The stratosphere as the name suggest has roughly the same temperature with height. It is isothermal.

The tropopause gives tropical cyclone their cirrus canopy. Imagine air forcing upwards, hitting the ceiling and spreading out but Coriolis turns these winds clockwise.


Thanks!
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1051. JamesSA
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
I don't think the riser pipe...
will survive
the SHEAR...

heh heh
I think it is cut. Lots of oil!
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Another Repost:

Quoting weather42009:
456,

At which level is the dry air being entrained?


Mid levels based on the water vapor flow, rgb images, GFS soundings and upper air obs.

Mid Level flow suggest where the greatest dry air flow is.


GFS sounding at 18N-85W revealed mid-level dry air exists above a moist column.



Upper air time cross section of Belize, upwind of 91L showing mid-level dry air intrusion above a moist column.




I suspect that the blow up in convection was due to lower level moist air being forced to rise in a layer of dry air which is an unstable situation. This type of instability is called convective instability. Eventually too much evaporation in the dry air layer leads to subsidence and outflow boundaries in the form of arc clouds and thunderstorms collapse.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:


In yesterday's tropical update, I hinted to moisture reaching the islands. But today, I saw less than previously anticipated heading your way. Let me know if you guys get rain.
Well, according to the latest NHC information it is moving slowly to the east so hopefully it will bring some rain our way.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
1048. bappit
Quoting beell:
A parcel is not saturated until it reaches its LCL. Lifted Condensation Level. Then it follows the Moist Adiabatic Lapse Rate. A slower rate of cooling due to latent heat release.

Maybe if the parcel was saturated at the surface-then the moist lapse rate all the way up.

Really not an arguable issue. Check it out.



Would have been best not to mention dry and moist adiabatic, but if the cooling effect is going to occur then we are talking moist adiabatic initially.

Edit: well, not initial initially. Oooooops. Unless there's fog. Mr. Kimble anyone?
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1047. Levi32
Quoting bappit:


Eh? I actually liked the explanation--though he could just say updrafts can cool the air above them when liquid water in the updrafts evaporates. What am I missing?

Of course if the air cools too much it sinks. Saw some outflows from gust fronts with 91L this afternoon, too. That dry air 456 was talking about.


We had already addressed evaporational cooling in 456's post. I was only adding to his explanation.
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I don't think the riser pipe...
will survive
the SHEAR...

heh heh
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
Quoting superpete:
W456-Post 1012: Looks like we may get a grazing pass from 91L here in Cayman? Can certainly do with the rain at the moment..


In yesterday's tropical update, I hinted to moisture reaching the islands. But today, I saw less than previously anticipated heading your way. Let me know if you guys get rain.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1044. scott39
Quoting JFLORIDA:


The off Texas - towards the oil according to the GFS.

Will it be severe
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1043. cg2916
Hey guys, we forgot this:

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE JUN 1 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE BECOME DISORGANIZED...AND TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
NNNN

0%.
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1042. Ossqss
Oh boy, where did the Exosphere is go? :)

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8188
1041. gator23
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Its actually quite sad how many times it shows up if you have the page set to 200 comments. People really need to get over him. He's obviously much smarter than they perceive him to be since he's obviously doing this for attention.


Its not about making fun of him or calling him dumb. Here is the problem with JFV

1.He asks that where just answered. Example: GATOR23: The NHC just upgraded this to a Hurricane
JFV: So that would mean we have a hurricane right sir?

2. He always ALWAYS asks if south florida is in the crosshairs

3. He frustrates the blog by not having leanred a single thing about weather in his 3 plus years on this blog

4.Finally, he has been banned SO MANY times and keeps coming back but instead of acting different or lying low he keeps doing the same trollish things

all of this ads up to a frustrated blog that has come to anticipate his antics and reappearances as well as distracting from the weather.

so no I will NOT stop making fun of him as he has earned my ire for taking away and ruining this blog.
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1040. bappit
Quoting beell:


Backwards


Eh? I actually liked the explanation--though he could just say updrafts can cool the air above them when liquid water in the updrafts evaporates. What am I missing?

Of course if the air cools too much it sinks. Saw some outflows from gust fronts with 91L this afternoon, too. That dry air 456 was talking about.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
MiamiHurricanes09 - 18z - Forecast Cone

Although this track is based on 18z models it can be completely wrong.

***I do not expect this to become anything tropical but should bring gusty winds and beneficial rain to central and south Florida in 3 days or so.



I have to do for a while. Be back later.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN NEAR
18N84W. THIS LOW IS A REMNANT OF AGATHA THAT MADE LANDFALL ALONG
THE PACIFIC OCEAN COAST NEAR THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER A FEW
DAYS AGO. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 17N
TO 20N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. COMPUTER MODELS ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY INDICATING THE FUTURE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO
SHIFT ACCORDINGLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
1038. will45
On the BP live feed they cut a pipe and oil is now flowing where they cut it into
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1036. Levi32
Quoting beell:
Parcel lapse rate- Rate of cooling of a parcel of air as it ascends, first at the dry adiabatic lapse rate to the LCL then at the wet adiabatic lapse rate afterwards


Link


Not when the parcel is already saturated at the surface. Then it starts rising immediately at the MALR and then the DALR in the mid-level dry air.
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1034. Patrap
Rotating Globe Movie
Updated every three hours.


These MPEG movies show weather systems over a rotating globe. They are created by combining data from 5 geostationary orbiting satellites (GOES-East, GOES-West, Meteosat at 0, Meteosat at 63E, and MTSAT), polar orbiting satellites and a topographic map of the Earth. Get more information about playing MPEG movies.
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1033. cg2916
Quoting scott39:
Wheres the blob in the GOM going?


I think East.
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I still don't see 91L affecting Florida. It should get caught up in the sub-tropical jet and just scoot off to the east.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11520
1030. cg2916
Quoting superpete:
W456-Post 1012: Looks like we may get a grazing pass from 91L here in Cayman? Can certainly do with the rain at the moment..


Possibly, yes.
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1029. scott39
Quoting Weather456:
If you press control+F and type JFV, you would find over 15 instances on this blog. I believe this guy has surpassed Stormtop as the most infamous blogger. You know, people are only as famous as we make them.
Wheres the blob in the GOM going?
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Quoting LowerCal:
Actually in the atmosphere all 3 are molecules:

H20
O2
N2

Listed that way its obvious which molecules are the lightest and why humid air is lighter.


These are all molecules as you said but I stated the difference between compounds and elements.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
W456-Post 1012: Looks like we may get a grazing pass from 91L here in Cayman? Can certainly do with the rain at the moment..
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The large shear has bitten the riser pipe enough that the oil is coming out at the shear point. Now we "see" how long before the view is completely obscured.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6069
Quoting weather42009:


Ok. I want to study the science of tropical meteorology because it's so fascinating and you are a big help. Levi mentioned that the area of most weather is "capped". I don't understand since I always thought the atmosphere is free.


The troposphere is capped by an inversion not in the stratosphere but rather in the tropopause.

The tropopause is a region between the troposphere and stratosphere where temperature increases with height. Air trying to rise within this layer will sink back down because it remains colder than the surrounding environment. Under intense conditions as in super cells and intense hurricanes, air can force through this seal.

The stratosphere as the name suggest has roughly the same temperature with height. It is isothermal.

The tropopause gives tropical cyclone their cirrus canopy. Imagine air forcing upwards, hitting the ceiling and spreading out but Coriolis turns these winds clockwise.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:


Remember to always add "at the same temperature". Also don't use the term element too loosely since water vapor is a compound (H2O) and nitrogen and oxygen are elements.
Actually in the atmosphere all 3 are molecules:

H20
O2
N2

Listed that way its obvious which molecules are the lightest and why humid air is lighter.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.