The hurricane season of 2010 arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2010

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The hurricane season of 2010 is upon us. With unprecedented sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, El Niño gone and possibly transitioning to La Niña, a massive oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico, a million earthquake refugees in Haiti at the mercy of a hurricane strike, and an ever-increasing number of people living on our coasts, the arrival of this year's hurricane season comes with an unusually ominous tone. NOAA is forecasting a very active and possibly hyperactive season, and Dr. Bill Gray has said he expects "a hell of a year." However, our ability to forecast hurricane activity months in advance is limited, and we don't yet know how the large scale weather patterns like the Bermuda High will set up during the peak part of hurricane season. In particular, I very much doubt that we are in for a repeat of the unprecedented violence of the Hurricane Season of 2005, with its 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes. While sea surface temperatures are currently warmer this year than in 2005, that year featured some very unusual atmospheric circulation patterns, with a very strong ridge of high pressure over the eastern U.S., record drought in the Amazon, and very low surface pressures over the Atlantic. A repeat of 2005's weather patterns is unlikely, though I am expecting we will get at least four major hurricanes this year. An average year sees just two major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Tracks of all June tropical storms and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, 1995 - 2009. Allison was a subtropical storm (coded blue). Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

The latest long-range computer model guidance suggests there's no reason to suspect that the first two weeks of this year's hurricane season will bring any unusual activity. Climatologically, June is typically the quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season. On average, we see only one named storm every two years in June. Only one major hurricane has made landfall in June--Category 4 Hurricane Audrey of 1957, which struck the Texas/Louisiana border area on June 27 of that year, killing 550. The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. In the fifteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been eleven June named storms (if we include 2008's Tropical Storm Arthur, which really formed on May 31). Five tropical storms have formed in the first half of June in that 14-year period, giving a historical 36% chance of a first-half-of-June named storm. Five June storms in the past 14 years have passed close enough to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill location to have caused significant transport had there been an oil slick on the surface.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are at record high levels over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America this year (Figure 2). As I discussed in my May 15 post, the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Central America (20°W - 80°W), is called the Main Development Region (MDR) because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were an eye-opening 1.46°C above average during April. This is the third straight record warm month, and the warmest anomaly measured for any month--by a remarkable 0.2°C. The previous record warmest anomalies for the Atlantic MDR were set in June 2005 and March 2010, at 1.26°C. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs. The AO and NAO are climate patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean related to fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores-Bermuda High. If the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), this creates a weak Azores-Bermuda High, which reduces the trade winds circulating around the High. During December - February, we had the most negative AO/NAO since records began in 1950, and this caused trade winds between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the hurricane Main Development Region to slow to 1 - 2 m/s (2.2 - 4.5 mph) below average. Slower trade winds mean less mixing of the surface waters with cooler waters down deep, plus less evaporational cooling of the surface water. As a result, the ocean heated up significantly, relative to normal, over the winter and Spring.

However, over the past two weeks, the AO/NAO has trended close to average, and trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to near normal speeds as the Bermuda-Azores High has strengthened. SST anomalies have been falling in recent weeks, and will continue to fall in the coming two weeks, based on the latest forecast from the GFS model. While I expect that record SSTs will continue into mid-June, current trends suggest that by July, SST anomalies will be close to what they were in 2005. SST anomalies in the MDR could fall below the record 2005 levels by the peak part of hurricane season, August - October. Even so, SSTs in the Caribbean this year will be plenty warm to cause an abnormal number of major hurricanes. These warm SSTs may also cause extensive damage to the coral reefs, which suffered huge die-offs from the record SSTs of 2005.

Typically, June storms only form over the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Gulf Stream waters just offshore Florida, where water temperatures are warmest. SSTs are 28 - 30°C in these regions, which is about 0.5 - 1.5°C above average for this time of year. June storms typically form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance. African tropical waves, which serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes, are usually too far south in June to trigger tropical storm formation. Every so often, a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa moves far enough north to act as a seed for a June tropical storm. This was the case for Arthur of 2008 (which also had major help from the spinning remnants of the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Alma). Another way to get Atlantic June storms is for a disturbed weather area in the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to push north into the Western Caribbean and spawn a storm there. This was the case for Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006 (which may have also had help from an African wave). SSTs are too cold in June to allow storms to develop between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands--there has only been once such development in the historical record--Ana of 1979.


Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for May 31, 2010. SSTs averaged more that 1°C above average over the entire tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Note the large region of below average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, signaling the possible start of an La Niña episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream's band of strong high-altitude winds is the main source of wind shear in June over the Atlantic hurricane breeding grounds, since the jet is very active and located quite far south this time of year.

The jet stream over the past few weeks has been locked into a pattern where a southern branch (the subtropical jet stream) brings high wind shear over the Caribbean, and a northern branch (the polar jet stream) brings high wind shear offshore of New England. This leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches off the coast of North Carolina, which is where Invest 90L formed.

The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming ten days (Figure 3.) This means that the waters offshore of North Carolina is the most likely place for a tropical storm to form during this period, though the southwestern Caribbean will at times have shear low enough to allow tropical storm formation. The Gulf of Mexico is forecast to have wind shear too high to support a tropical storm during the first half of June. None of our reliable forecast models call for tropical storm formation over the coming 7 days, though the NOGAPS model indicates the possibility of a tropical disturbance forming off the coast of Nicaragua on Friday.


Figure 3. Wind shear forecast from the 00Z GMT June 1, 2010 run of the GFS model for June 7. Currently, the polar jet stream is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore New England, and the subtropical jet is bringing high wind shear to the northern Caribbean. This leaves the waters off the coast of North Carolina and southern Caribbean under low shear, making these areas the most favored region for tropical storm formation over the next 7 - 10 days. Wind speeds are given in m/s; multiply by two to get a rough conversion to knots. Thus, the red regions of low shear range from 0 - 16 knots.

Dry air and African dust
It's too early to concern ourselves with dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, since these dust outbreaks don't make it all the way to the June tropical cyclone breeding grounds in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Developing storms do have to contend with dry air from Canada moving off the U.S. coast; this was a key reason why our first "Invest" of the year, 90L off the coast of South Carolina, never became a subtropical storm.

Dust expert Professor Amato Evan of the University of Virginia has posted his forecast for African dust for the 2010 hurricane season. Dr. Evan is predicting that due to plentiful rains during last year's rainy season over the Sahel region of Africa, and near average amounts of African dust observed in May 2010 and during the 2009 hurricane season, we can expect near average or moderately below average levels of dust over the tropical Atlantic during the 2010 hurricane season.

Steering currents
The forecast steering current pattern over the next two weeks is a typical one for June, with an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs will be frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2009 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, that steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary
Wind shear over the main breeding grounds for June tropical cyclones, the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean, is expected to be high enough over the next two weeks to give us an average chance of a June named storm. I give a 30% chance of a named storm between now and June 15, and a 60% chance for the entire month of June. There is approximately a 30% chance of a June storm passing close enough to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill to cause significant transport of the oil. See my post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, for more information on this.

Agatha the 6th deadliest Eastern Pacific storm on record
Central America's Tropical Storm Agatha is now the 6th deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones on record. Agatha was a tropical storm for just 12 hours, making landfall Saturday on the Pacific coast of Guatemala as a 45 mph tropical storm. However, the storm brought huge amounts of rain--as much as 36 inches--to the high mountains of Guatemala. So far, flooding and landslides have killed at least 123 people in Guatemala, with 59 others missing. The storm also killed 9 in neighboring El Salvador, and 14 in Honduras.


Figure 4. Journey to the center of the Earth: a massive sinkhole 200 feet (60 meters) deep opened up in the capital, Guatemala City, after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. How are they going to fix this hole? Wow! It doesn't even look real.

Guatemala's worst flooding disaster in recent history was due to Hurricane Stan of 2005, which killed 1,513. The deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record for Guatemala was Hurricane Paul of 1982, which made landfall in Guatemala as a tropical depression. Flooding from Paul's rains killed 620 people in Guatemala.

Oil spill update
Light onshore winds out of the south to southwest are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico all week, resulting increased threats of oil to the Alabama and Mississippi barrier islands, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These persistent southwesterly winds will likely bring oil very close to the Florida Panhandle by Saturday.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Today, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays during hurricane season. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season

I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Portlight receives a major grant to fund U.S. disaster relief work
The Christopher and Dana Reeve Foundation has announced today that it is awarding a Quality of Life Grant in the amount of $21,500 to Portlight Strategies, Inc. The grant will fund a ready-to-deploy container specifically outfitted to serve the immediate needs of people with disabilities in the aftermath of hurricanes and other domestic natural disasters. To read more about this award, check out the Portlight blog. Congratulations, Portlight team!

Portlight continues its Haiti response
Ready or not, the rainy season is here for Haiti. Portlight has done a tremendous amount to help the Haitians get ready for the upcoming hurricane season, as detailed in the Haitian Relief Recap blog post made last week. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to Portlight's efforts in Haiti.


Figure 5. A portion of the 30,000 pounds of rice donated to Haitian earthquake victims by Portlight earlier this month, shipped via the schooner Halie and Mathew.

I'll be back Wednesday afternoon with an analysis of the new Colorado State University hurricane forecast issued by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, due out on June 2.

Jeff Masters

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1124. JamesSA
Ok guys, make the other cut and put the lid on it. There's an awful lot of oil coming out now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting msgambler:
That cutter is just like a cutter that the Fir Dept. uses with the Jaws of Life. It only cuts and has a sharp edge on one side that goes through a groove on the other.


I've never seen the Jaws of Life, but are they so sharp they start cutting before going through the groove. If so, dulling would solve that problem. I'm real good at dulling knives, saw blades, exacto... :)
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Quoting Levi32:


I don't see more than a low chance of development. It has now bursted twice. If it stays out of the Gulf of Mexico, it may have a chance to burst again. With each subsequent burst it has a greater chance of forming and holding onto a surface circulation, but IF it bursts again tomorrow morning is the question.


In my opinion, none of these bursts have been progressive. The system has less convergence now than at 24 hrs ago.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
new runs



000

WHXX01 KWBC 020036

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0036 UTC WED JUN 2 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912010) 20100602 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100602 0000 100602 1200 100603 0000 100603 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.3N 85.7W 20.2N 86.5W 21.5N 87.0W 23.2N 87.2W
BAMD 19.3N 85.7W 21.0N 83.9W 22.7N 80.8W 23.8N 76.8W
BAMM 19.3N 85.7W 20.4N 85.0W 21.9N 83.6W 23.3N 81.7W
LBAR 19.3N 85.7W 20.1N 85.4W 21.8N 84.9W 23.7N 84.1W
SHIP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 21KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 25KTS 23KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100604 0000 100605 0000 100606 0000 100607 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.3N 86.3W 29.1N 82.1W 31.0N 73.2W 34.1N 65.7W
BAMD 24.1N 73.0W 22.7N 68.5W 20.4N 68.1W 17.9N 68.8W
BAMM 24.8N 79.5W 25.5N 74.0W 23.6N 70.1W 21.3N 68.2W
LBAR 25.8N 82.6W 28.7N 77.0W 29.2N 70.3W 29.3N 65.1W
SHIP 16KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 19KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.3N LONCUR = 85.7W DIRCUR = 45DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 19.0N LONM12 = 86.0W DIRM12 = 43DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 18.7N LONM24 = 86.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN



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wunderkidcayman,trust me its dead i pulled the plug on it a couple of hours ago.
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1119. Makoto1
Quoting serialteg:
evenin ... i lost all my last year's hard earned links :( anyone have a handy all-inclusive links page? tia


Nope but what I do have is a "go Packers" for you, even though I dreamt last night that they lost to the Cowboys by 74 ._.

And 456, basically what we're seeing is it getting sheared apart, or at least the beginnings of it, right?
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1118. Patrap
Quoting serialteg:
evenin ... i lost all my last year's hard earned links :( anyone have a handy all-inclusive links page? tia


www.canefever.com 2010 Tropical Links dujour'
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Quoting MZV:
Arrghhh

Blog Stretch! :-{

Who did it? HyDrO420 with that long URL? TinyUrl that stuff...


what did i do?
I quoted is all
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Okay, call me stoooopid, but I would think that a cutter that cuts by pinching the pipe, could also stop just short of cutting it so that the pipe is squeezed together, thus restricting flow. (quizzical look)


I thought of that too, but that long pipe is above the leak and the pipe below the leak is too short. Clean cut is the best shot.
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1115. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


T3.5 "Severe Cyclonic Storm" Phet
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1114. pottery
Quoting txjac:


My thought exactly!

Mine too. I really thought it was a crimping tool....
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before you guys pull th plug on 91L let us see what happens for the next 24 hours then you guys can pull the plug
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Okay, call me stoooopid, but I would think that a cutter that cuts by pinching the pipe, could also stop just short of cutting it so that the pipe is squeezed together, thus restricting flow. (quizzical look)
That cutter is just like a cutter that the Fir Dept. uses with the Jaws of Life. It only cuts and has a sharp edge on one side that goes through a groove on the other.
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1111. Levi32
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thank you. Now, any chance for anything to come of it if it is moving east ?


I don't see more than a low chance of development. It has now bursted twice. If it stays out of the Gulf of Mexico, it may have a chance to burst again. With each subsequent burst it has a greater chance of forming and holding onto a surface circulation, but IF it bursts again tomorrow morning is the question.
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1110. MZV
Arrghhh

Blog Stretch! :-{

Who did it? HyDrO420 with that long URL? TinyUrl that stuff...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
evenin ... i lost all my last year's hard earned links :( anyone have a handy all-inclusive links page? tia
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1108. txjac
Quoting PcolaDan:


Okay, call me stoooopid, but I would think that a cutter that cuts by pinching the pipe, could also stop just short of cutting it so that the pipe is squeezed together, thus restricting flow. (quizzical look)


My thought exactly!
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1107. pottery
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:





# The installation procedure first involves removing the damaged riser from the top of the BOP.
# A remote operated hydraulic shear will be used to make two initial cuts and then that section will be removed by crane. A diamond wire saw will then be placed to cut the pipe close to the LMRP and the final damaged piece of riser will be removed.
# The LMRP Cap is designed to seal on top of the riser stub. The seal will decrease the potential of inflow of seawater as well as improve the efficiency of oil recovery. Lines carrying methanol also are connected to the device to help stop hydrate formation.
# The device will be connected to a riser extending from the Discoverer Enterprise drillship.
# The LMRP Cap is on site, and it is anticipated that this option would be available for deployment by the end of May.


Showing the diamond wire saw in place now on the ROV video

Nice! Thanks. Seeing the Saw in place..
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1106. Levi32
Quoting beell:


It reaches it's equilibrium level. A TEMPERATURE thing. A parcel rises at the moist lapse rate until it is no longer warmer than the environment. Then it sinks. Mixing ratio is conserved.


All true unless there is a dry capping layer in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Then water droplets start evaporating and the rising air becomes unsaturated and rises at the dry adiabatic lapse rate again. It is not a once saturated, always saturated thing 100% of the time. Mid-level dry air messes that up.
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Quoting Levi32:
"HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO
SHIFT ACCORDINGLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS."


It appears they are assuming that the mid-level circulation, or whatever is left of it, is at least slowly following the direction of the MCS (the blob), off to the east, though likely not as fast due to wind shear blowing the thunderstorms off to the east at a greater pace.
Thank you. Now, any chance for anything to come of it if it is moving east ?
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Quoting Ossqss:


Reminds me of my first date :)

For those who don't have a link to the ROV stuff, here ya go. If anyone has better ones, please share.

http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/homepage/STAGING /local_assets /bp_homepage/html/rov_stream.html


thats the only one i know of if any one has a diff. one please share.
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1103. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


AEW
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Latest surface obs in the last hour with the TPC 18Z location and current analysis of the 00Z location with the area of convection in dashed lines.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting pottery:

I truly thought that the "pincher" was a 'grab' not a cutter. I never saw any sharp edges or off-center shears or anything.
Incredible stuuf, man.


Okay, call me stoooopid, but I would think that a cutter that cuts by pinching the pipe, could also stop just short of cutting it so that the pipe is squeezed together, thus restricting flow. (quizzical look)

edit: That being said, there may not be enough of the pipe left to do this and still attach the LMRP CAP.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:





# The installation procedure first involves removing the damaged riser from the top of the BOP.
# A remote operated hydraulic shear will be used to make two initial cuts and then that section will be removed by crane. A diamond wire saw will then be placed to cut the pipe close to the LMRP and the final damaged piece of riser will be removed.
# The LMRP Cap is designed to seal on top of the riser stub. The seal will decrease the potential of inflow of seawater as well as improve the efficiency of oil recovery. Lines carrying methanol also are connected to the device to help stop hydrate formation.
# The device will be connected to a riser extending from the Discoverer Enterprise drillship.
# The LMRP Cap is on site, and it is anticipated that this option would be available for deployment by the end of May.


Showing the diamond wire saw in place now on the ROV video
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1099. pottery
Quoting Ossqss:


Reminds me of my first date :)

For those who don't have a link to the ROV stuff, here ya go. If anyone has better ones, please share.

http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/homepage/STAGING/local_assets /bp_homepage/html/rov_stream.html

CNN webpage has a couple of live feeds all the time too....
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1098. Patrap
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1097. Levi32
"HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO
SHIFT ACCORDINGLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS."


It appears they are assuming that the mid-level circulation, or whatever is left of it, is at least slowly following the direction of the MCS (the blob), off to the east, though likely not as fast due to wind shear blowing the thunderstorms off to the east at a greater pace.
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1096. Ossqss
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
ACCESS FORBIDDEN


Reminds me of my first date :)

For those who don't have a link to the ROV stuff, here ya go. If anyone has better ones, please share.

http://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/globalbp/globalbp_uk_english/homepage/STAGING/local_assets /bp_homepage/html/rov_stream.html
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I still don't see 91L affecting Florida. It should get caught up in the sub-tropical jet and just scoot off to the east.


Agreed. It's gonna pass either over Cuba or skirt the sourthern coast
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1094. beell
Quoting Levi32:


Yes it is an arguable issue. Just because an air parcel hits the LCL doesn't mean it can't become unsaturated farther up as it enters a very dry air layer with humidities under 50%, at which point moisture within the parcel evaporates.


It reaches it's equilibrium level. A TEMPERATURE thing. A parcel rises at the moist lapse rate until it is no longer warmer than the environment. Then it sinks. Mixing ratio is conserved.
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Quoting Patrap:
AL 91 Track Guidance 1800

ACCESS FORBIDDEN
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I have a feeling that you all will be surprised tomrrow morn when it blows up so much you can't even guess on how it will look as it moves between NNE-E
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i do believe that it is just about dead.
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1090. Levi32
Quoting cg2916:


I'm already confused. Can someone please explain what a parcel is?


When teaching Meteorology, it is often useful to imagine a "parcel" of air that is separated from the surrounding air by an invisible boundary, not allowing the air inside to mix with the air around it, and is isolated. Imagine this as a bubble of air wrapped in an elastic wrap, cut off from the environment. The wrap is flexible, and the air parcel may expand or contract freely, due to changes in air pressure/temperature.
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1089. Patrap
AL 91 Track Guidance 1800

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1088. pottery
Quoting JamesSA:
Well, they got their riser pipe cut off... but I am not so sure that was a good thing. There is an INCREDIBLE amount of oil coming out now!

I truly thought that the "pincher" was a 'grab' not a cutter. I never saw any sharp edges or off-center shears or anything.
Incredible stuuf, man.
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1086. bappit
Quoting cg2916:


I'm already confused. Can someone please explain what a parcel is?


A hypothetical volume of air.

Edit: about the size of a hypothetical package you get in the mail or smaller. A parcel.
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1085. gator23
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO
SHIFT ACCORDINGLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
This is per the NHC.


even so the BAMM Models are so spread out which is a indicator of shear.
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1084. MZV
I shy away from declaring anything dead in the late evening. Storms usually look crummy when the blog is most active on a weekday. Then you log in the next morning, to see the late-nighters saying "Whoa! That's really blowing up..."
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1083. Patrap
GOM IR Loop


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RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO
SHIFT ACCORDINGLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
This is per the NHC.
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Quoting P451:
SSD, Rainbow, Fronts enabled.


That other blob in the GOM is starting to look more impressive. Anyone have thoughts on it's future development/non-development?
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Quoting Levi32:


This is exactly why a severe thunderstorm outbreak usually requires dynamic lifting. Mid-level dry air over low-level moist air is convectively unstable but only when the air is forced to rise.


And it can be forced to rise by diffluent flow aloft in the right exit region of the associated upper trof.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1079. JamesSA
Well, they got their riser pipe cut off... but I am not so sure that was a good thing. There is an INCREDIBLE amount of oil coming out now!
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
That was impressive... Now for the diamond cable band saw.


Absolutely amazing. Must see tv.
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1077. cg2916
Quoting bappit:


Not really an arguable issue. Just confuses things.


I'm already confused. Can someone please explain what a parcel is?
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1076. Levi32
Quoting bappit:


Not really an arguable issue. Just confuses things.


Yes it is an arguable issue. Just because an air parcel hits the LCL doesn't mean it can't become unsaturated farther up as it enters a very dry air layer with humidities under 50%, at which point moisture within the parcel evaporates.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Just a quick question. If in fact 91L is moving east what would be the chance for development then ? TIA


I do not think the mid-level energy is moving east, rather the convection and if the convection is moving east and the mid-low level energy is near the Yucatan then that is decoupling and the environment is not conducive for development.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:


In yesterday's tropical update, I hinted to moisture reaching the islands. But today, I saw less than previously anticipated heading your way. Let me know if you guys get rain.
OK..I'll hold off on the sprinklers for a while :+]
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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