The hurricane season of 2010 arrives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:56 PM GMT on June 01, 2010

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The hurricane season of 2010 is upon us. With unprecedented sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, El Niño gone and possibly transitioning to La Niña, a massive oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico, a million earthquake refugees in Haiti at the mercy of a hurricane strike, and an ever-increasing number of people living on our coasts, the arrival of this year's hurricane season comes with an unusually ominous tone. NOAA is forecasting a very active and possibly hyperactive season, and Dr. Bill Gray has said he expects "a hell of a year." However, our ability to forecast hurricane activity months in advance is limited, and we don't yet know how the large scale weather patterns like the Bermuda High will set up during the peak part of hurricane season. In particular, I very much doubt that we are in for a repeat of the unprecedented violence of the Hurricane Season of 2005, with its 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes. While sea surface temperatures are currently warmer this year than in 2005, that year featured some very unusual atmospheric circulation patterns, with a very strong ridge of high pressure over the eastern U.S., record drought in the Amazon, and very low surface pressures over the Atlantic. A repeat of 2005's weather patterns is unlikely, though I am expecting we will get at least four major hurricanes this year. An average year sees just two major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Tracks of all June tropical storms and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico, 1995 - 2009. Allison was a subtropical storm (coded blue). Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

The latest long-range computer model guidance suggests there's no reason to suspect that the first two weeks of this year's hurricane season will bring any unusual activity. Climatologically, June is typically the quietest month of the Atlantic hurricane season. On average, we see only one named storm every two years in June. Only one major hurricane has made landfall in June--Category 4 Hurricane Audrey of 1957, which struck the Texas/Louisiana border area on June 27 of that year, killing 550. The highest number of named storms for the month is three, which occurred in 1936 and 1968. In the fifteen years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, there have been eleven June named storms (if we include 2008's Tropical Storm Arthur, which really formed on May 31). Five tropical storms have formed in the first half of June in that 14-year period, giving a historical 36% chance of a first-half-of-June named storm. Five June storms in the past 14 years have passed close enough to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill location to have caused significant transport had there been an oil slick on the surface.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are at record high levels over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America this year (Figure 2). As I discussed in my May 15 post, the area between 10°N and 20°N, between the coast of Africa and Central America (20°W - 80°W), is called the Main Development Region (MDR) because virtually all African waves originate in this region. These African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 80°W) were an eye-opening 1.46°C above average during April. This is the third straight record warm month, and the warmest anomaly measured for any month--by a remarkable 0.2°C. The previous record warmest anomalies for the Atlantic MDR were set in June 2005 and March 2010, at 1.26°C. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and its close cousin, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), are largely to blame for the record SSTs. The AO and NAO are climate patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean related to fluctuations in the difference of sea-level pressure between the Icelandic Low and the Azores-Bermuda High. If the difference in sea-level pressure between Iceland and the Azores is small (negative NAO), this creates a weak Azores-Bermuda High, which reduces the trade winds circulating around the High. During December - February, we had the most negative AO/NAO since records began in 1950, and this caused trade winds between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands in the hurricane Main Development Region to slow to 1 - 2 m/s (2.2 - 4.5 mph) below average. Slower trade winds mean less mixing of the surface waters with cooler waters down deep, plus less evaporational cooling of the surface water. As a result, the ocean heated up significantly, relative to normal, over the winter and Spring.

However, over the past two weeks, the AO/NAO has trended close to average, and trade winds over the tropical Atlantic have increased to near normal speeds as the Bermuda-Azores High has strengthened. SST anomalies have been falling in recent weeks, and will continue to fall in the coming two weeks, based on the latest forecast from the GFS model. While I expect that record SSTs will continue into mid-June, current trends suggest that by July, SST anomalies will be close to what they were in 2005. SST anomalies in the MDR could fall below the record 2005 levels by the peak part of hurricane season, August - October. Even so, SSTs in the Caribbean this year will be plenty warm to cause an abnormal number of major hurricanes. These warm SSTs may also cause extensive damage to the coral reefs, which suffered huge die-offs from the record SSTs of 2005.

Typically, June storms only form over the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Gulf Stream waters just offshore Florida, where water temperatures are warmest. SSTs are 28 - 30°C in these regions, which is about 0.5 - 1.5°C above average for this time of year. June storms typically form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance. African tropical waves, which serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes, are usually too far south in June to trigger tropical storm formation. Every so often, a tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa moves far enough north to act as a seed for a June tropical storm. This was the case for Arthur of 2008 (which also had major help from the spinning remnants of the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Storm Alma). Another way to get Atlantic June storms is for a disturbed weather area in the Eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to push north into the Western Caribbean and spawn a storm there. This was the case for Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006 (which may have also had help from an African wave). SSTs are too cold in June to allow storms to develop between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands--there has only been once such development in the historical record--Ana of 1979.


Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for May 31, 2010. SSTs averaged more that 1°C above average over the entire tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Note the large region of below average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, signaling the possible start of an La Niña episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream's band of strong high-altitude winds is the main source of wind shear in June over the Atlantic hurricane breeding grounds, since the jet is very active and located quite far south this time of year.

The jet stream over the past few weeks has been locked into a pattern where a southern branch (the subtropical jet stream) brings high wind shear over the Caribbean, and a northern branch (the polar jet stream) brings high wind shear offshore of New England. This leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches off the coast of North Carolina, which is where Invest 90L formed.

The jet stream is forecast to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming ten days (Figure 3.) This means that the waters offshore of North Carolina is the most likely place for a tropical storm to form during this period, though the southwestern Caribbean will at times have shear low enough to allow tropical storm formation. The Gulf of Mexico is forecast to have wind shear too high to support a tropical storm during the first half of June. None of our reliable forecast models call for tropical storm formation over the coming 7 days, though the NOGAPS model indicates the possibility of a tropical disturbance forming off the coast of Nicaragua on Friday.


Figure 3. Wind shear forecast from the 00Z GMT June 1, 2010 run of the GFS model for June 7. Currently, the polar jet stream is bringing high wind shear to the waters offshore New England, and the subtropical jet is bringing high wind shear to the northern Caribbean. This leaves the waters off the coast of North Carolina and southern Caribbean under low shear, making these areas the most favored region for tropical storm formation over the next 7 - 10 days. Wind speeds are given in m/s; multiply by two to get a rough conversion to knots. Thus, the red regions of low shear range from 0 - 16 knots.

Dry air and African dust
It's too early to concern ourselves with dry air and dust coming off the coast of Africa, since these dust outbreaks don't make it all the way to the June tropical cyclone breeding grounds in the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Developing storms do have to contend with dry air from Canada moving off the U.S. coast; this was a key reason why our first "Invest" of the year, 90L off the coast of South Carolina, never became a subtropical storm.

Dust expert Professor Amato Evan of the University of Virginia has posted his forecast for African dust for the 2010 hurricane season. Dr. Evan is predicting that due to plentiful rains during last year's rainy season over the Sahel region of Africa, and near average amounts of African dust observed in May 2010 and during the 2009 hurricane season, we can expect near average or moderately below average levels of dust over the tropical Atlantic during the 2010 hurricane season.

Steering currents
The forecast steering current pattern over the next two weeks is a typical one for June, with an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs will be frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2009 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, that steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary
Wind shear over the main breeding grounds for June tropical cyclones, the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean, is expected to be high enough over the next two weeks to give us an average chance of a June named storm. I give a 30% chance of a named storm between now and June 15, and a 60% chance for the entire month of June. There is approximately a 30% chance of a June storm passing close enough to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill to cause significant transport of the oil. See my post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, for more information on this.

Agatha the 6th deadliest Eastern Pacific storm on record
Central America's Tropical Storm Agatha is now the 6th deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones on record. Agatha was a tropical storm for just 12 hours, making landfall Saturday on the Pacific coast of Guatemala as a 45 mph tropical storm. However, the storm brought huge amounts of rain--as much as 36 inches--to the high mountains of Guatemala. So far, flooding and landslides have killed at least 123 people in Guatemala, with 59 others missing. The storm also killed 9 in neighboring El Salvador, and 14 in Honduras.


Figure 4. Journey to the center of the Earth: a massive sinkhole 200 feet (60 meters) deep opened up in the capital, Guatemala City, after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. How are they going to fix this hole? Wow! It doesn't even look real.

Guatemala's worst flooding disaster in recent history was due to Hurricane Stan of 2005, which killed 1,513. The deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record for Guatemala was Hurricane Paul of 1982, which made landfall in Guatemala as a tropical depression. Flooding from Paul's rains killed 620 people in Guatemala.

Oil spill update
Light onshore winds out of the south to southwest are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico all week, resulting increased threats of oil to the Alabama and Mississippi barrier islands, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These persistent southwesterly winds will likely bring oil very close to the Florida Panhandle by Saturday.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Today, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays during hurricane season. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season

I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Portlight receives a major grant to fund U.S. disaster relief work
The Christopher and Dana Reeve Foundation has announced today that it is awarding a Quality of Life Grant in the amount of $21,500 to Portlight Strategies, Inc. The grant will fund a ready-to-deploy container specifically outfitted to serve the immediate needs of people with disabilities in the aftermath of hurricanes and other domestic natural disasters. To read more about this award, check out the Portlight blog. Congratulations, Portlight team!

Portlight continues its Haiti response
Ready or not, the rainy season is here for Haiti. Portlight has done a tremendous amount to help the Haitians get ready for the upcoming hurricane season, as detailed in the Haitian Relief Recap blog post made last week. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and to donate to Portlight's efforts in Haiti.


Figure 5. A portion of the 30,000 pounds of rice donated to Haitian earthquake victims by Portlight earlier this month, shipped via the schooner Halie and Mathew.

I'll be back Wednesday afternoon with an analysis of the new Colorado State University hurricane forecast issued by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray, due out on June 2.

Jeff Masters

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1324. SLU
Sorry for the double post.
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Quoting Levi32:


TCHP is not a problem north of Panama. Dry air from South America is not a big problem north of Panama. Geographical proximity to the east Pacific means nothing.

The problem with disturbances close to the northern coast of Panama is they are usually heavily embedded in the monsoon trough, and, like the ITCZ, this makes it harder for the system to tighten up. Monsoon depressions take days to organize on average. They develop quicker if they are pulled north, like you said, but the monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean is a breeding ground for mischief.
blockquote>

:) I knew you would have taken care of it.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1322. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Weather456:
Learn from 91L. No LLC but extremely cold cloud tops. SSTs added that high amount of heat and moisture from below the mid-level dry air. It is just one of the little things that make a huge difference later this season.


456
i believe we may see a substantial increased in deepness of convection and how fast organization occurs this season because of the sst's and heat depth we have and will yet gain
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Quoting pottery:

I understand your emotions. This is a bad situation, with no guarantees of anything as yet.
What can i say again ?


It's going to be at least 3 more months of this until the relief wells are completed. Sad, but true.
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Quoting JamesSA:
This is BP's Chernobyl I am afraid.


Far worse I think. With Chernobyl they could evacuate the nearest settlement of people and abandon the countryside, pour cement over the facility. There is no way to accomplish a similar exercise with the GOM. There is just too much in the way of commerce and residential living along the gulf coast to even contemplate an exodus such as Chernobyl.

Once the genie is out of the bottle there is no putting it back in.This will impact eco systems thousands of miles away from the gulf and, by extension, peoples lives. How will you know if a fish caught off the outer banks didn't eat a smaller fish that came from the gulf ?.
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1317. SLU
Quoting SLU:


The African wave train has been extremely active throughout the month of May. If this trend continues inconjuction with the favourable wind sheer and the very high SSTS in the deep tropics, then us having pre-August 1st named storm days east of 75W and south of 20N seems a real possibility this year. This occurrence is the #1 red flag for an active season. This is because the thermodynamics are healthy enough to develop tropical waves very early in the season and this pattern normally continues during the peak weeks of the hurricane season.

The following is a list of some hurricane seasons with pre-August 1st named storms in that region. The storms forming pre-August 1st, east of 75W and south of 20N are in brackets.

2005 - 28 storms (MH Dennis, MH Emily)
1933 - 21 storms (Unnamed storms #2, #3 & #5)
1995 - 19 storms (TS Chantal)
1887 - 19 storms (Unnamed storms #4 & #5)
1969 - 18 storms (TS Anna)
2008 - 16 storms (MH Bertha)
2003 - 16 storms (TS Claudette)

All of these seasons were very active and all featured some very severe hurricanes. The statistics and the conditions do favour early season deep tropics activity this year.


As far as the tropical waves are concerned, in May we experienced record high numbers of tropical waves. In May, 14 tropical waves exited West Africa. To put that into perspective:

May 2009 - 5 waves
June 2009 - 6 waves
July 2009 - 11 waves
August 2009 - 10 waves
September 2009 - 9 waves
October 2009 - 8 waves

Our 14th tropical wave last year did not emerge until the 1st week of July compared to May 30th this year.

More "seedlings" in favourable atmospheric conditions generally means more tropical cyclones ....



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Quoting pottery:

That is the concern all along, by people who have thought about it.
But can the Talking Heads say that?
There would probably be lynchings....


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1315. Levi32
Quoting altesticstorm10:

I respect your weather knowledge but it is my opinion that you are misinterpreting and wrong here.

1. The SE Caribbean is known to be the dead zone for WEAK, UNDEVELOPED tropical systems such as 99L in July/August 2007 and even shallow tropical storms like Earl in 2004. The water is plenty warm and TCHP plenty high and this region is NOT a dead zone for passing hurricanes, but a fuel station. Felix was already a Cat 1...Emily the same, and Ivan was already a Cat 4, so these examples don't contradict the "dead zone" theory.

2. Mitch, Lenny, Wilma and Ida, notice your trend? They all formed in a TOTALLY OPPOSITE part of the year (October, November, the LATTER parameter months of the hurricane season when steering currents are extremely erratic and often shotty (Mitch went west, Wilma went north to NE, Ida went north, Lenny actually went east!). These late-season systems should be void from any discussion and are completely unanalogous. Late spring definately =/= late fall.

And yes plenty of storms get their origins from a tropical wave combined with the monsoon trough that reaches into the SW Caribbean, but the actual storm doesn't form until it gets in the NW Caribbean...partly due to TCHP, partly due to its geographical proximity to dry South America and the EPAC.


TCHP is not a problem north of Panama. Dry air from South America is not a big problem north of Panama. Geographical proximity to the east Pacific means nothing.

The problem with disturbances close to the northern coast of Panama is they are usually heavily embedded in the monsoon trough, and, like the ITCZ, this makes it harder for the system to tighten up. Monsoon depressions take days to organize on average. They develop quicker if they are pulled north, like you said, but the monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean is a breeding ground for mischief.
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1314. pottery
Quoting WaterWitch11:
really folks, i'm the last one that would want to bring anymore drama to the blog. it is just upsetting and unbelievable. given their track record for attempts at fixing this. to create a cut that will produce more. i don't know what to say.

I understand your emotions. This is a bad situation, with no guarantees of anything as yet.
What can i say again ?
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Quoting pottery:

Looking at the surface 'slick'--it has not grown to the extent that oil is being added to it.
So the "dispersants" are obviously working. Keeping the oil in suspension?
There is a google barrels of oil somewhere out there....

Even without the dispersants, the oil slick would not just grow and grow as more oil is added. There are some natural mechanisms constantly at work, here....

Sounds a little odd, but true: Crude oil is organic, pesticide-free, and biodegradable.
(Hmmm, I wonder if whole foods carries it...)
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Quoting pottery:

Looking at the surface 'slick'--it has not grown to the extent that oil is being added to it.
So the "dispersants" are obviously working. Keeping the oil in suspension?
There is a google barrels of oil somewhere out there....


out of sight, out of mind... and they can fight being held liable for the "hidden" damage...
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1311. JamesSA
Quoting Ossqss:


Is it cutting from the back? I believe so. I see a line on the pipe.....
No, the cutting wire is on the side closest to the yellow housing. It is cutting away from itself. There is going to be alot of oil once it makes a hole.
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1307. altesticstorm10 10:02 PM AST on June 01, 2010

ok
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting JamesSA:
It has an incredibly slow feed rate. It is moving, but is still a couple of inches from the pipe.


Set it and forget it?
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1308. beell
Quoting Levi32:


Then apparently everything I have read about convective instability is wrong. There is obviously some confusion here. Oh well.


Levi,
Maybe the one thing we both overlooked:
The temperature profile in the tropics is much warmer than a thunderstorm over Nebraska. You won't find -15° C temps at 500mb over the Caribbean in June. Lapse Rate.
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1299. altesticstorm10 10:00 PM AST on June 01, 2010

ok
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1304. bassis
Other than more oil I wonder if there are risks such as gas ignition that they have considered with this new attempt
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1303. Ossqss
Quoting pottery:

No Blades. A wire saw.


Is it cutting from the back? I believe so. I see the line on the pipe.....
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1302. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:
How can you dump that much oil into what is essentially a closed area without destroying it for a century or more ?. The currents enter from the Yucatan channel and exit through the Florida straits. One way in and one way out.

The rest is bottled up. If August is the fix then the true extent of the multi decade damage is not even close to being realised IMO.
It's not even the rate of natural dispersion that is the issue. Once you poison the genetic line of marine creatures who knows where this will end.

How do you determine if each individual fish or shrimp or oyster is safe to eat. Who will risk it ?. And when do you declare everything is safe again, 50 years from now ?.

That is the concern all along, by people who have thought about it.
But can the Talking Heads say that?
There would probably be lynchings....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Learn from 91L. No LLC but extremely cold cloud tops. SSTs added that high amount of heat and moisture from below the mid-level dry air. It is just one of the little things that make a huge difference later this season.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1300. SLU


The African wave train has been extremely active throughout the month of May. If this trend continues inconjuction with the favourable wind sheer and the very high SSTS in the deep tropics, then us having pre-August 1st named storm days east of 75W and south of 20N seems a real possibility this year. This occurrence is the #1 red flag for an active season. This is because the thermodynamics are healthy enough to develop tropical waves very early in the season and this pattern normally continues during the peak weeks of the hurricane season.

The following is a list of some hurricane seasons with pre-August 1st named storms in that region. The storms forming pre-August 1st, east of 75W and south of 20N are in brackets.

2005 - 28 storms (MH Dennis, MH Emily)
1933 - 21 storms (Unnamed storms #2, #3 & #5)
1995 - 19 storms (TS Chantal)
1887 - 19 storms (Unnamed storms #4 & #5)
1969 - 18 storms (TS Anna)
2008 - 16 storms (MH Bertha)
2003 - 16 storms (TS Claudette)

All of these seasons were very active and all featured some very severe hurricanes. The statistics and the conditions do favour early season deep tropics activity this year.


As far as the tropical waves are concerned, in May we experienced record high numbers of tropical waves. In May, 14 tropical waves exited West Africa. To put that into perspective:

May 2009 - 5 waves
June 2009 - 6 waves
July 2009 - 11 waves
August 2009 - 10 waves
September 2009 - 9 waves
October 2009 - 8 waves

Our 14th tropical wave last year did not emerge until the 1st week of July compared to May 30th this year.

More "seedlings" in favourable atmospheric conditions generally means more tropical cyclones ....



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really folks, i'm the last one that would want to bring anymore drama to the blog. it is just upsetting and unbelievable. given their track record for attempts at fixing this. to create a cut that will produce more. i don't know what to say.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1297. JamesSA
Quoting kmanislander:
How can you dump that much oil into what is essentially a closed area without destroying it for a century or more ?. The currents enter from the Yucatan channel and exit through the Florida straits. One way in and one way out.

The rest is bottled up. If August is the fix then the true extent of the multi decade damage is not even close to being realised IMO.
It's not even the rate of natural dispersion that is the issue. Once you poison the genetic line of marine creatures who knows where this will end.

How do you determine if each individual fish or shrimp or oyster is safe to eat. Who will risk it ?. And when do you declare everything is safe again, 50 years from now ?.
This is BP's Chernobyl I am afraid.
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Quoting kuppenskup:
What are the chances of Oytonair in the Gulf Becomming Sussener a 92L. I dont give it much of a chance but what do you guys think?


You mean that blob south of the Texas coast? Not a chance.
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Well I have to go, good night all!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
How can you dump that much oil into what is essentially a closed area without destroying it for a century or more ?. The currents enter from the Yucatan channel and exit through the Florida straits. One way in and one way out.

The rest is bottled up. If August is the fix then the true extent of the multi decade damage is not even close to being realised IMO.
It's not even the rate of natural dispersion that is the issue. Once you poison the genetic line of marine creatures who knows where this will end.

How do you determine if each individual fish or shrimp or oyster is safe to eat. Who will risk it ?. And when do you declare everything is safe again, 50 years from now ?.
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Quoting altesticstorm10:

Nothing will develop parallel to Costa Rica or Nicaragua...too close to South America which usually cuts off the coriolis. Anything that should form into a TD must migrate north from the SW Caribbean to the NW Caribbean and at least be parallel to Honduras or Belize before it actually develops into something. Arlene and Cindy in 2005, as well as many others, formed from waves combined with the SW Caribbean extension of the monsoonal trough.
Like 456 said the SW Caribbean is a breeding ground for tropical mischief. Regardless of being close to land a system can form (Hurricane Keith 2000, Hurricane Gaston 2004, Tropical storm Arthur 2008).
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1292. bassis
Quoting pottery:

No Blades. A wire saw.


Did not realize that. Just got in from work and got the feed up
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1291. divdog
some guy on tv said 15 minutes to cut the pipe??sounds too short
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1290. pottery
Quoting bassis:
Looks like the blades closed to starting the cut

No Blades. A wire saw.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


10% by the NHC is reasonable. But I don't use percentages. I give it a low chance.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1288. Levi32
Quoting altesticstorm10:

Nothing will develop parallel to Costa Rica or Nicaragua...too close to South America which usually cuts off the coriolis. Anything that should form into a TD must migrate north from the SW Caribbean to the NW Caribbean and at least be parallel to Honduras or Belize before it actually develops into something. Arlene and Cindy in 2005, as well as many others, formed from waves combined with the SW Caribbean extension of the monsoonal trough.


Lol? The entire western Caribbean is above 10N and how can a landmass cutoff the Coriolis force? It is a little harder to get a storm named near Panama because of the monsoon trough spreading out the convergence, similarly to tropical waves that are too far embedded into the ITCZ, but no, the Coriolis force has nothing to do with this.
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1287. pottery
Quoting JamesSA:

By August they would be able to claim the entire GOM by adverse possession and use it as a giant oil storage tank. This cannot go on that long.

Looking at the surface 'slick'--it has not grown to the extent that oil is being added to it.
So the "dispersants" are obviously working. Keeping the oil in suspension?
There is a google barrels of oil somewhere out there....
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Quoting bassis:
Looks like the blades closed to starting the cut


lol
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:
If 91L has another convective cycle expect it to be the same as today and yesterday. There is no moisture in the deep layer to support sustained convection and very shear is blasting drier air from further west again into the system.

No, No....Do you mean less than 10% chance of forming?
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Yeah, been busy...

Thanks, Dr. M. Great post...and thanks for the great big dose of reality. My friends needed that.
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Quoting Weather456:


What? The SW and SE caribbean are two opposite ends of a spectrum. The SE Caribbean is thought to be "a dead zone" though Ivan, Emily and Felix proved otherwise.

As for the SW Caribbean, many tropical cyclones begin there, it is a breeding ground. Do you release the precursors of Mitch, Lenny, Wilma and Ida were in the SW Caribbean?

Exactly!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1281. JamesSA
Quoting mikatnight:
Yeah, it's running...just needs to move closer...
It has an incredibly slow feed rate. It is moving, but is still a couple of inches from the pipe.
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1280. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
careful
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1279. bassis
Looks like the blades closed to starting the cut
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What are the chances of Oytonair in the Gulf Becomming Sussener a 92L. I dont give it much of a chance but what do you guys think?
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1277. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting weather42009:


LOL!, you made many sad, thinking they will have an encore tomorrow.


iam not sad
iam glad
ya wouldn't want a phet sitting there
would ya
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Quoting altesticstorm10:

Neither will develop. The SW Caribbean is just like the SE Caribbean...tropical cyclones can pass through there but not form there. I don't buy the SW Caribbean storm nor do I think anything will become of it in the EPAC. I do think something will happen in the Atlantic before June 15...most likely in the Caribbean from one of those powerful African waves.


What? The SW and SE caribbean are two opposite ends of a spectrum. The SE Caribbean is thought to be "a dead zone" though Ivan, Emily and Felix proved otherwise.

As for the SW Caribbean, many tropical cyclones begin there, it is a breeding ground. Do you release the precursors of Mitch, Lenny, Wilma and Ida were in the SW Caribbean?

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Yeah, it's running...just needs to move closer...
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1274. JamesSA
Quoting pottery:

Well, we all hope that this works. 20% more for a couple days then a substantial reduction would be the only good news so far...
Going on and on at this rate would be....

By August they would be able to claim the entire GOM by adverse possession and use it as a giant oil storage tank. This cannot go on that long.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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