Tropical Storm Agatha one of the top ten deadliest Eastern Pacific storms on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:56 PM GMT on May 31, 2010

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The Eastern Pacific hurricane season of 2010 is off to a bad start. The mounting death toll from Central America's Tropical Storm Agatha has made that storm one of the top ten deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones on record. Agatha was a tropical storm for just 12 hours, making landfall Saturday on the Pacific coast of Guatemala as a 45 mph tropical storm. However, the storm brought huge amounts of moisture inland that continue to be wrung out as heavy rains by the high mountains of Guatemala and the surrounding nations of Central America. So far, flooding and landslides have killed at least 83 people in Guatemala, 13 in neighboring El Salvador, and one in Honduras. Guatemala is also suffering from the Pacaya volcano in Guatemala, which began erupting four days ago. At least three people have been killed by the volcano, located about 25 miles south of the capital, Guatemala City. The volcano has destroyed 800 homes with lava and brought moderate ash falls to the capital.


Figure 1. Flood damage in Zunil, Quetzaltenango, in Guatemala on May 29, 2010, after heavy rains from Tropical Storm Agatha. Image credit: Sergio Huertas, climaya.com

Agatha is the deadliest flooding disaster in Guatemala since Hurricane Stan of 2005, which killed 1,513. In a bizarre coincidence, that storm also featured a major volcanic eruption at the same time, when El Salvador's Santa Ana volcano blew its top during the height of Stan's rains in in that country on October 1. The eruption killed two and injured dozens, and worsened the mud flow damage from Stan's rains. The deadliest Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone on record for Guatemala was Hurricane Paul of 1982, which made landfall in Guatemala as a tropical depression. Flooding from Paul's rains killed 620 people in Guatemala.


Figure 2. Two-day rainfall totals for Central America as estimated by satellite, for the period 7pm EDT Friday May 28 - 7pm EDT Sunday May 30, 2010. Rainfall amounts of 350 mm (14 inches, orange colors) were indicated for portions of Guatemala. The Guatemala government reported that rainfall exceeded 36 inches in some regions. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Oil spill update
Light onshore winds out of the south to southwest are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico all week, resulting increased threats of oil to the Alabama and Mississippi barrier islands, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These persistent southwesterly winds will likely bring oil very close to the Florida Panhandle by next weekend.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami
The Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and its Aftermath
What You Need to Know about Mercury in Fish and Shellfish

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GainesvilleGator:
I hope bloggers on here weren't on the computer all day looking at Ex-Agatha on Satelite. There is more to life than blogging on WU. You have to enjoy yourself sometimes you know. We are in for a long Hurricane Season.

Nope i had a great time with the family went into the pool cooked up some hamburgers and hot dogs now thats the life!
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1299. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


323

WHXX01 KMIA 010005

CHGE77

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0005 UTC TUE JUN 1 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP912010) 20100601 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100601 0000 100601 1200 100602 0000 100602 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 9.6N 117.0W 10.3N 118.1W 11.2N 119.4W 12.1N 120.5W

BAMD 9.6N 117.0W 10.1N 118.9W 10.8N 120.7W 11.3N 122.3W

BAMM 9.6N 117.0W 10.0N 118.6W 10.4N 120.5W 10.8N 122.2W

LBAR 9.6N 117.0W 10.0N 118.2W 10.7N 119.7W 11.6N 121.1W

SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS 32KTS

DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS 32KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100603 0000 100604 0000 100605 0000 100606 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 12.9N 121.5W 14.2N 123.5W 15.0N 125.6W 14.2N 127.5W

BAMD 11.9N 123.5W 12.9N 125.1W 13.7N 126.3W 13.6N 127.6W

BAMM 11.3N 123.6W 12.0N 125.8W 12.5N 128.6W 13.2N 130.9W

LBAR 12.7N 122.6W 15.4N 124.7W 17.9N 127.3W 18.7N 129.7W

SHIP 38KTS 39KTS 31KTS 25KTS

DSHP 38KTS 39KTS 31KTS 25KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 9.6N LONCUR = 117.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 3KT

LATM12 = 9.4N LONM12 = 116.2W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 4KT

LATM24 = 9.2N LONM24 = 115.4W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


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Invest 91E

EP, 91, 2010060100, , BEST, 0, 96N, 1170W, 20, 1010, DB
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
I hope bloggers on here weren't on the computer all day looking at Ex-Agatha on Satelite. There is more to life than blogging on WU. You have to enjoy yourself sometimes you know. We are in for a long Hurricane Season.

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1296. cg2916
Quoting Hurricanes101:


yup we have a new invest in the EPAC


What? Where?
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Well, I'll be watching TWC at 11:50 EST (possibly 12:50, not sure) tonight. Kind of a tradition. And when there's actually a named storm to track, I like their updates. So I likely won't watch again for weeks the way the Atlantic looks now. Still feeling a possible surprise comeback of agatha though. Warm water and really good outflow, just no convection.
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Good evening all. Just an observer from South Florida! Well, this is my annual blog contribution.
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Quoting Walshy:
Tropical Weather: Invest 91 (East Pacific) Tropical Cyclone Three (Arabian Sea)


yup we have a new invest in the EPAC
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
1292. mchuter
well....everyone have a great night!! I am outta here till we get "cookin"!! Mary :-)
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1291. Walshy
Tropical Weather: Invest 91 (East Pacific) Tropical Cyclone Three (Arabian Sea)
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1290. cg2916
Quoting Walshy:



Im in NW North Carolina and Isabel came by with some very high winds. Hurricane Ivan also brought about 2feet of rain with mudslides. They didn't affect you that far south??


Don't think so... of course, I wasn't into the tropics at the time, I just probably thought it was rain.

Last thing I got was ex-Ida. It dumped a TON of rain. I'm on the Piedmont Plateau, and we flooded! We never flood here! A local school had a bunch of ceiling water damage.
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Quoting Ossqss:
Not the first time this has happened. We in Florida have similar issues, but none to that scale. 2007 here.......

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17303991/


Thats a massive sinkhole but not like that one in guatamala that thing is enourmous i have never seen anything like that.
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Quoting CycloneOz:
'Twas Storm Season's Eve by CycloneOz

'Twas storm season's eve, when all through the blog
A creature was stirring, hiding out as if in fog
The posts were mundane; a storm here and there
When this person's posts we became suddenly aware.

As June 1st approached and forecasts foretold
This one banned blogger's posts did unfold.
A misspelled word here, and ?????? there
It became plainly obvious that we should beware.

Was it him, really him, the guy that won't go away?
Spoiling the moment on this momentous day!
How many storms? How many names? Of this you can believe.
That mouse in our house is none other than JFV!!!


BRAVO!! LOL
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Actually if you look at the JFV blog page it doesn't say banned anymore.
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1286. Ossqss
Not the first time this has happened. We in Florida have similar issues, but none to that scale. 2007 here.......

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17303991/


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1285. cg2916
Quoting CycloneOz:
'Twas Storm Season's Eve by CycloneOz

'Twas storm season's eve, when all through the blog
A creature was stirring, hiding out as if in fog
The posts were mundane; a storm here and there
When this person's posts we became suddenly aware.

As June 1st approached and forecasts foretold
This one banned blogger's posts did unfold.
A misspelled word here, and ?????? there
It became plainly obvious that we should beware.

Was it him, really him, the guy that won't go away?
Spoiling the moment on this momentous day!
How many storms? How many names? Of this you can believe.
That mouse in our house is none other than JFV!!!


Love it!
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Quoting SouthALWX:
lol you obviously weren't around the other night. If you ignored me, you made a mistake :) Aussie is a great guy, JFV called him a bumblebee lol
I wont remove SouthALWX from my ignore list till I get an apology. I am a paid member and I don't come on here to be called names.

-.- nevermind. booting up humor .......launch of humor failed.... preparing to shutdown .. system failure, consult a clown.
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1282. mchuter
I thought JFV was banned last year......the drama continues.....
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Quoting CycloneOz:
'Twas Storm Season's Eve by CycloneOz

'Twas storm season's eve, when all through the blog
A creature was stirring, hiding out as if in fog
The posts were mundane; a storm here and there
When this person's posts we became suddenly aware.

As June 1st approached and forecasts foretold
This one banned blogger's posts did unfold.
A misspelled word here, and ?????? there
It became plainly obvious that we should beware.

Was it him, really him, the guy that won't go away?
Spoiling the moment on this momentous day!
How many storms? How many names? Of this you can believe.
That mouse in our house is none other than JFV!!!



ROFLMAO!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
tropicaltank -


remember, until tomorrow AM CDT the remnants of Agatha will be in a condition to grow as we enter the diurnal maximum where the difference between air and water temps will be heading into a maximum and last night/this AM there WERE some very heavy thunderstorms at the COC. It's not the best storm Mother Nature ever put together, but it DOES have all the hallmarks - with the exception of a low-level circulation - but unless I'm mistaken, that's in the works as we post - so it looks like if it can stay out of the GOM or if that ULL can fall apart then Agatha might have had a sex change over Guatemala and we'll soon have Alex after they take the bandage off: which, BTW, isn't Guatemala the country where a lot of people DO go to get those kinds of operations?
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1279. Walshy
Quoting cg2916:


I'm in NW South Carolina, the worst we ever got was ex-Frances 2004.



Im in NW North Carolina and Isabel came by with some very high winds. Hurricane Ivan also brought about 2feet of rain with mudslides. They didn't affect you that far south??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CycloneOz:
'Twas Storm Season's Eve by CycloneOz

'Twas storm season's eve, when all through the blog
A creature was stirring, hiding in fog
The posts were mundane; a storm here and there
When this person's posts we became suddenly aware.

As June 1st approached and forecasts foretold
This one banned blogger's posts did unfold.
A misspelled word here, and ?????? there
It became plainly obvious that we should beware.

Was it him, really him, the guy that won't go away?
Spoiling the moment on this momentous day!
How many storms? How many names? Of this you can believe.
That mouse in our house is none other than JFV!!!
Great poem cycloneoz!
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Quoting SouthALWX:
lol you obviously weren't around the other night. If you ignored me, you made a mistake :) Aussie is a great guy, JFV called him a bumblebee lol
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I figured it out, that's why I removed it. LOL!

I wont remove SouthALWX from my ignore list till I get an apology. I am a paid member and I don't come on here to be called names.
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1276. Dr3w
Quoting cg2916:


I'm in NW South Carolina, the worst we ever got was ex-Frances 2004.


You are so lucky you got ex Frances :p
I live in Fort Pierce Florida where Frances' eye hit directly and Frances knocked our oak tree down on our house and destroyed our entire kitchen.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


SouthALWX is not this FIU guy

they were both on at the exact same time last night
I know, I was being sarcastic.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1273. JLPR
Quoting KRL:
HOLY COW! Gigantic sink hole in Guatamala.





%*&^%$! :O
Gosh! Thats just...
wow!
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Quoting AussieStorm:

JFV/FIU2010 called me that the other day cause I said I had put him on ignore. He can't resist letting the cat outa the bag when he comes in here with new handles.

Looks like convection has almost gone from ex-Agatha. D-Min???
Yeah i was there when it happened i was just saying who would call someone a bumblebee to insult them to me thats a pretty lame insult.
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Quoting Weather456:
My approach this season is to picture blog activity as a river. If the river is gently flowing, you can take a dip or two. But when the river turns into a rapid, then you stay on the bank and watch from the side.

I totally agree. But I stay on the sidelines all the time. I just love this site. You can learn so much.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

OMFG, that's a biiiiiiiiiggggggggg hole.


That's what I told her
Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 423
1269. cg2916
Quoting KRL:
HOLY COW! Gigantic sink hole in Guatamala.





What the heck?
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Quoting KRL:
HOLY COW! Gigantic sink hole in Guatamala.




OMFG, that's a biiiiiiiiiggggggggg hole.
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Quoting cg2916:


I'm in NW South Carolina, the worst we ever got was ex-Frances 2004.
Oh whoops my bad but still if you ever get in the remnants of a storm be careful.
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Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Who calls someone a bumblebee anyways.

JFV/FIU2010 called me that the other day cause I said I had put him on ignore. He can't resist letting the cat outa the bag when he comes in here with new handles.

Looks like convection has almost gone from ex-Agatha. D-Min???
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Ok I don't post in here often because I know absolutely nothing. I live in PSL FL so I keep an eye on the stuff going on in here. So please don't ignore me! I promise I am not a troll. I have had a good laugh or two at some of them though.
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Quoting SouthALWX:

lol you obviously weren't around the other night. If you ignored me, you made a mistake :) Aussie is a great guy, JFV called him a bumblebee lol
I figured it out, that's why I removed it. LOL!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1262. cg2916
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
To you as well just be careful this year.


I'm in NW South Carolina, the worst we ever got was ex-Frances 2004.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


SouthALWX is not this FIU guy

they were both on at the exact same time last night

thanks :)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Damn 3 usernames in 24 hours! This man is a genius!


SouthALWX is not this FIU guy

they were both on at the exact same time last night
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
guys RELAX .. Im not JFV .. though it's insulting and hillarious at the same time to be referred to as such =P
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
So... UTC is 4 hours ahead of EST? May everyone be safe during the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
Actually 4 hours ahead of EDT but 5 hours ahead of EST. Sorry, looked back and saw 456 answered already. I wonder if he remembers 2008 when he and I had this conversation LOL
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Quoting KRL:
HOLY COW! Gigantic sink hole in Guatamala.



That looks like the bunker in the show lost. I can just see John Locke and Jack Sheppard on all 4's looking down into that hole and seeing Said
Member Since: August 26, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 423
Quoting KRL:
HOLY COW! Gigantic sink hole in Guatamala.

Woah! i wouldnt want to be living near that thing oh my god.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

JFV. Is that you????

haha no, I was just laughing at the fact that he called you a bumblebee XD
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1254. mchuter
Hi everyone!! Its that time of year, and I just wanted to give a shout out before it gets insane again! I see Drak, 456, 236, Keeper, and hopefully I will get to see Storm W. I will be watching...not posting much...so remember me when something develops near Slidell, LA!!
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Quoting AussieStorm:

JFV. Is that you????
Damn 3 usernames in 24 hours! This man is a genius!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1252. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ok since it's already June 1st on UTC time (I'm not going to be up until midnight, lol). I'm going to bless everyone and ask the Lord to keep us safe through this upcoming intense hurricane season. Amen!


Amen!

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I agree.


Me, too. This will be the best WU season ever. We have the most people on, plus an active season ahead of us.
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Quoting Nolehead:
No I'm serious, Ocean24 is JFV. He created an account today and uploaded a picture of the Miami skyline as his avatar today too. Plus he said "teh" instead of the. How more obvious can you get? Plus FIU2010 got banned so why wouldn't he make a new account?

the master of the blogs...LMAO..lets just see how many names he has to have before this season ends....he's like a damn pimple on your ass..he just keeps coming back...LOL!!
Like the energizer bunny he keeps going and going and going.........
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL.You just won yourself a first class one way trip to my ignore list!

lol you obviously weren't around the other night. If you ignored me, you made a mistake :) Aussie is a great guy, JFV called him a bumblebee lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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