Loop Current Eddy cuts off; oil danger to Keys now greatly reduced

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on May 28, 2010

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A major ocean current re-alignment is underway the Gulf of Mexico right now, and the new configuration that is developing greatly reduces the threat of oil entering the Loop Current and affecting the Florida Keys and U.S. East Coast. As I explain in my Loop Current Primer, the Loop Current is an ocean current that transports warm Caribbean water through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico. The current flows northward into the Gulf of Mexico, then loops southeastward just south of the Florida Keys (where it is called the Florida Current), and past the western Bahamas. Here, the waters of the Loop Current flow northward along the U.S. coast and become the Gulf Stream. With current speeds of about 0.8 m/s, the Loop Current is one of the fastest currents in the Atlantic Ocean. Every 6 - 11 months, the top bulge of the Loop Current cuts off, forming a 250-mile diameter circular eddy in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. This clockwise-spinning eddy is filled with warm water from the Loop Current, and is called a Loop Current Eddy. The main body of the Loop Current then takes a fairly direct eastward path from the Yucatan Channel to the Florida Keys.

Over the past two days, surface currents in the Gulf of Mexico have aligned to form a Loop Current Eddy, as seen in the analysis of surface currents done by the U.S. Navy (Figure 1, and see also a 30-day animation of the eddy forming.) It remains to be seen if the deep water currents have followed suit, and a stable Loop Current Eddy cannot exist until the deep water currents also cut off into a clockwise-rotating ring of water at depth. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is out over the Gulf of Mexico today dropping expendable buoys and current probes to determine if a stable Loop Current Eddy has formed. Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecast Service has a nice discussion on the Loop Current Eddy formation.


Figure 1. Comparison of surface currents in the Gulf of Mexico on May 19 (top) and May 27 (bottom) as simulated by the HYCOM model. On May 19, the Loop Current made a large northward loop into the Gulf, and was able to transport oil from the near the spill location southwards through the Keys. By May 27, this loop had cut off, and new oil moving southwards from the spill will now be trapped in the clockwise rotating Loop Current Eddy that is cut off from the Loop Current. Note on the west side of the Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of Texas, there is an old Loop Current Eddy that cut off from the Loop Current in July 2009. This eddy cut off in the same location as this week's eddy, and has drifted west-southwestward at 3 - 5 km per day over the past ten months. Image credit: U.S. Navy.

If the eddy does remain in place, it will greatly reduce the chances of oil making it to Cuba, the Florida Keys, and beyond. Any oil moving southwards from the spill location will now become entrained in the eddy, and will move in a 250 mile-wide clockwise circle in the east-central Gulf of Mexico. A small portion the oil will get shed away from the eddy's periphery and make it into the Loop Current and waters surrounding the eddy, but the concentrations of oil doing so will be small. Keep in mind, though, that during the first 1 - 2 months that a Loop Current Eddy forms, it is common for the eddy to exchange substantial amounts of water with the Loop Current, and in some cases get re-absorbed into the Loop Current. A 1-year animation of the Loop Current shows that the last Loop Current Eddy, which cut off in mid-July 2009, experienced a 2-week period in early August when it re-attached to the Loop Current. A significant portion of any oil entering the eddy during a period of re-attachment will be able to enter the Loop Current and flow past the Keys.

One bad result of the eddy breaking off is that now we have an extra source of heat energy for passing hurricanes during the upcoming hurricane season. Loop Current eddies have high-temperature water that extends to great depth, and hurricanes passing over such eddies often undergo rapid intensification. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita of 2005 both underwent rapid intensification as they passed over warm Loop Current eddies in 2005. The formation of a Loop Current Eddy during hurricane season means that a much greater portion of the Gulf of Mexico has deep, warm water capable of fueling rapid intensification of hurricanes.

Oil spill update
Light offshore northwesterly winds are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Saturday, resulting decreased threats of oil to the Louisiana shore, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These offshore winds may be able to transport oil southwards into the Loop Current Eddy that just formed; a streamer of oil moving southeastward into the Loop Current Eddy is visible in yesterday's NASA MODIS imagery (Figure 2). Winds will shift to onshore out of the south on Saturday night, then shift to southwesterly by Tuesday. The long-range forecast from the GFS model indicates continued southwesterly winds all of next week. If this forecast verifies, we will see our greatest chances yet of significant amounts of oil reaching the beaches of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico taken at 2:55pm EDT Thursday May 27, 2010, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. Thin streaks of oil can be seen moving southeast and then southwest around the eastern side of the new Loop Current Eddy. Image credit: NASA.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Central American disturbance
The Atlantic is currently quiet, with none of our reliable global forecast models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next 6 days. There is an area of disturbed weather (90E) just off the Pacific coast of Mexico that will be a major concern for southern Mexico and much of Central America over the next 3 - 4 days. The disturbance will bring heavy rains to Central America during the weekend, potentially bringing serious flooding rains to portions of Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. NHC is giving the disturbance a high (>60% chance) of the disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on the tropics.


Figure 3. Satellite image of the Central American disturbance 90E this morning.

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Beginning next week, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays, with the first show June 1. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season

I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I'll be back with at least one update over the coming 3-day Memorial Day weekend. Have a great holiday!

Jeff Masters

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1807. IKE
Quoting Beachfoxx:
1795. Ike, I thought he sounded like the lawyer he is... a lawyer talking to his client (Us) trying to soothe their nerves just before the jury comes back with a verdict.

There was zero emotion.......


Yeah...but he's the Commander in Chief. He seems like a nice guy, but...


Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well.. it might be his 'Katrina' but judging by the Hurricane season upcoming.. maybe not.


That maybe part 2. The outlook is a little bleak in the GOM.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
RE: 1802

Wow. Look at that big messy think just across the border from ND!
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1805. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting IKE:


He just doesn't act like he knows what the heck is going on. Maybe he'll improve.

I think he's one and done. I also think it's his Katrina.

Sorry to get on politics here.
i kinda like looking at it this way oil is the drug bp is the drug(oil) supplier obama is the user
now you want the user to take out the dealer in this world that is never going to happen
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting IKE:


He just doesn't act like he knows what the heck is going on. Maybe he'll improve.

I think he's one and done. I also think it's his Katrina.

Sorry to get on politics here.


Well.. it might be his 'Katrina' but judging by the Hurricane season upcoming.. maybe not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hows the weather in St Kitts 456? Sounds heavenly to me. Here in the mountains of NM we had a light freeze last night but it looks like we'll get up to the mid 80s today...finally. At my house, the first freeze came September 13 and we are still getting some freezes. Thats much too much of a winter for me I say.
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1802. IKE
Low over the SE USA....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
GFS MODEL SHOWS A STORM IN THE GOM JUNE 10th
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1795. Ike, I thought he sounded like the lawyer he is... a lawyer talking to his client (Us) trying to soothe their nerves just before the jury comes back with a verdict.

There was zero emotion.......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning all.

I'm curious what the more educated here think about the possibility of TD1 making it into the GOM and surviving the central american mountains. Thank you. I appreciate the opinions.

As for the BP oil gusher....well, just sickening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Morning Weather 456,
Looks like you may be getting a taste of the first tropical system of the season...aren't you in El Salvador?


lol, that is too far.

St. Kitts, Leeward Islands
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
It made my 10 year old girl run and screem something about the current govener of CA.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
if you could animate that hurricane it would be nice
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ditto - and I'm not sure if they can top kill it - I'm afraid we may have oil spilling into the GoM until August when the relief well is drilled. : (
Quoting pottery:

Maybe true. It would be a shame if something like this causes a change of Government IMO.
But I do think that the response to the oil coming ashore has been completely inadequate. The leak itself is another story..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1795. IKE
Quoting indianrivguy:


I just don't get it.. he "could" have been a National hero for being immediate, forceful and proactive to try and protect the coastline. It could/would have displaced some of the other issues and shown him in a very good light. At the wellhead, you have to go with the best, and they are there, even if they are keeping us in the dark as best they can.. it the coast and citizenry that has been neglected IMO. It is THERE that Obama could have wielded his office and made a difference. JMHO.


He just doesn't act like he knows what the heck is going on. Maybe he'll improve.

I think he's one and done. I also think it's his Katrina.

Sorry to get on politics here.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1794. pottery
In the meantime----
looking at the Central Atlantic Rainbow loops with upper-level winds added-- there seems to be a large area of upper level rotation centered approximately over Tobago.
Comments?
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Good morning guys I see that 90-E is now have TD1-E
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11139
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning all

I was noticing that even though the swaths that Ascat takes are smaller than those we used to see from Quikscat, somehow Ascat always seems to catch part or all of the area we want to see more than 50% of the time.

Yesterday, the noon pass was picture perfect and again last night the pass caught the Western half. I had been very concerned about the loss of QS but must say I am of the view that Ascat will make up for that. No doubt there will be times when Ascat misses on both passes in a day but QS seemed to miss more often than not.



In an initial assessment of Ascat done at TPC, their estimate was it covered cyclones 1/2 the time QuikScat did, but that was based on 1 season of data.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 10901
Quoting IKE:


Agree. I'm not sure anyone in the state of Louisiana would vote for him now. Piss poor handled. Not impressed. You think we would have learned from Katrina, no matter who is in office.



I just don't get it.. he "could" have been a National hero for being immediate, forceful and proactive to try and protect the coastline. It could/would have displaced some of the other issues and shown him in a very good light. At the wellhead, you have to go with the best, and they are there, even if they are keeping us in the dark as best they can.. it the coast and citizenry that has been neglected IMO. It is THERE that Obama could have wielded his office and made a difference. JMHO.
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WOW! Shear has dropped like a rock on Average compared to the Normal Shear for this time of year.....LOOK AT THE GRAPH
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1789. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting indianrivguy:


Good morning KOG.. yer avatar rocks... vigilant, threatening.. awesome Keeper.
thanks it was time to update the other has been with me since 2005 this is the new 2010 version i guess
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1788. pottery
Quoting kingy:


....remember too that the small flotilla of surface craft over the leak can't stay there forever. I guess a lot of the boats will be forced away when the first cat1/cat2 cane threatens. The 'august' target date for the relief wells must be questionable given BP's track record for accurate info thus far. Like pottery, I think there are 'greater minds' than ours that are limiting the amount (and rate) of info that they think we can cope with.

Like I said, in 1 month this is thought to be 2-3 times the size of the exxon spill in alaska. We are probably looking at another 2 months (maybe more) of unchecked pollution in the gulf. Then we have to assume teh relief wells come in on time. AND we have to assume that the existing oil leaks ALL dry up once the relief wells are sunk. I just don't buy this anymore. By the time this oil leak is plugged the 2010 cane season will have ensured numerous coastlines are ruined AND god knows what will have happened to the food chain in the GOM.

Looking on the bright side the shrimps will have so much oil in them that they will 'self fry' in the pan

I was giving some thought to the "relief well" thing. I have heard that it is a procedure that has been used with good results in the past.
But the technicalities of that boggle the mind.
First, you have to drill, at an increasing angle (this is not a problem, they do directional drilling all the time) to intercept the existing pipe.
You have to hit the pipe plumb center.
You have to ream-out a large hole in the casing.
You have to create a reasonably 'water-tight' connection between the new and old casing.
You have to pump heavy fluids into the old, to fill the existing casing to the top to create enough hydrostatic pressure to kill the well.
All of the above, while the existing well is flowing at several thousands PSI.
All of this in 5000 feet of water and about 18,000 into the rock.

Gonna be fun...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1787. breald
The Eddy Loop current is good news for The Keys.
I am praying that the Gulf Coast does not get hit with any hurricanes. this region has been putthru so much the past few years. Some tough skinned people live in the gulf but I don't know how much more they can endure. Fingers are already crossed.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
good morning wunderground


Good morning KOG.. yer avatar rocks... vigilant, threatening.. awesome Keeper.
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1785. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i guess i killed the blog


Actually what killed it was the NHC saying about TD1E>>>>OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1784. IKE
Quoting pottery:

Maybe true. It would be a shame if something like this causes a change of Government IMO.
But I do think that the response to the oil coming ashore has been completely inadequate. The leak itself is another story..


Agree. I'm not sure anyone in the state of Louisiana would vote for him now. Piss poor handled. Not impressed. You think we would have learned from Katrina, no matter who is in office.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1783. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
i guess i killed the blog
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1782. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
good morning wunderground
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1781. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting cg2916:
I know this is off-topic, but real quick, do you guys think my avatar is nice and noticeable?
if you could animate that hurricane it would be nice
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1780. kingy
Quoting pottery:

I am wondering if BP and the President dont already know, but cannot say "this is impossible to stop until August. And we are not sure we can stop it in August either. And between now and August the BOP is likely to fail completely creating an unimaginable crisis".
A statement like that would be cause for panic and all that goes with it.
The prospects look dismal, frankly.


....remember too that the small flotilla of surface craft over the leak can't stay there forever. I guess a lot of the boats will be forced away when the first cat1/cat2 cane threatens. The 'august' target date for the relief wells must be questionable given BP's track record for accurate info thus far. Like pottery, I think there are 'greater minds' than ours that are limiting the amount (and rate) of info that they think we can cope with.

Like I said, in 1 month this is thought to be 2-3 times the size of the exxon spill in alaska. We are probably looking at another 2 months (maybe more) of unchecked pollution in the gulf. Then we have to assume teh relief wells come in on time. AND we have to assume that the existing oil leaks ALL dry up once the relief wells are sunk. I just don't buy this anymore. By the time this oil leak is plugged the 2010 cane season will have ensured numerous coastlines are ruined AND god knows what will have happened to the food chain in the GOM.

Looking on the bright side the shrimps will have so much oil in them that they will 'self fry' in the pan
1779. pottery
Quoting IKE:


BP knows a hell of a lot more then they are telling.

As far as the President...a one-term President looks increasingly likely.

Maybe true. It would be a shame if something like this causes a change of Government IMO.
But I do think that the response to the oil coming ashore has been completely inadequate. The leak itself is another story..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1778. cg2916
I know this is off-topic, but real quick, do you guys think my avatar is nice and noticeable?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1777. cg2916
Quoting AussieStorm:

well yeah, but will it have time to become Agatha. that's the million dollar question.


I think it'll be Agatha by next advisory. At least the next 2 advisories.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning all

I was noticing that even though the swaths that Ascat takes are smaller than those we used to see from Quikscat, somehow Ascat always seems to catch part or all of the area we want to see more than 50% of the time.

Yesterday, the noon pass was picture perfect and again last night the pass caught the Western half. I had been very concerned about the loss of QS but must say I am of the view that Ascat will make up for that. No doubt there will be times when Ascat misses on both passes in a day but QS seemed to miss more often than not.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cg2916:


Nope, TD 1-E. Not Agatha YET.

well yeah, but will it have time to become Agatha. that's the million dollar question.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1774. cg2916
The NHC replied:

Hi Cg2916, yes the technical staff is working on a solution.
Thank you for letting us know.

Best regards,

============================
Christopher Juckins
National Hurricane Center
Technical Support Branch
email: nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
web: www.hurricanes.gov
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1773. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

WTPN31 PHNC 291300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS//
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01E (ONE-E) WARNING NR 001
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
1200 UTC SAT MAY 29 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

AT 5 AM PDT THE GOVERNMENTS OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO HAVE ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND ALL OF GUATEMALA FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-EL SALVADOR BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR ALL OF THE EL SALVADOR COAST.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND ALL OF
GUATEMALA FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
GUATEMALA-EL SALVADOR BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 93.5W AT 29/1200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 93.5W AT 29/1200Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 93.8W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 13.0N 93.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.3N 92.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 13.7N 91.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.4N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 70SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.9N 91.2W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 93.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z.//


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1772. pottery
Heavy rain here this morning, and a friend in Tobago just called to say it has been Torrential there all night long.
May rainfall is setting records here ...
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1771. cg2916
Quoting AussieStorm:

Lol,,,, Unknown....it's meant to be Agatha


Nope, TD 1-E. Not Agatha YET.
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1770. IKE
Quoting pottery:

I am wondering if BP and the President dont already know, but cannot say "this is impossible to stop until August. And we are not sure we can stop it in August either. And between now and August the BOP is likely to fail completely creating an unimaginable crisis".
A statement like that would be cause for panic and all that goes with it.
The prospects look dismal, frankly.


BP knows a hell of a lot more then they are telling.

As far as the President...a one-term President looks increasingly likely.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting CybrTeddy:
NHC sites really glitching up with this first TD..




Lol,,,, Unknown....it's meant to be Agatha
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1768. cg2916
Quoting CybrTeddy:
NHC sites really glitching up with this first TD..




Wow.
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1767. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1766. cg2916
I sent the NHC an e-mail about the forecast cones.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1765. pottery
Quoting kingy:
the oil leak is looking nice and black, I struggle to believe this is mud that is being forced up the pipework. This looks like the BP 'topkill' mud has been blown back up the pipe and oil is now leaking again. The longer it is taking BP to claim success is a sure sign of failure.

You got to hand it to BP's 'don't ask don't tell' approach to PR, it has worked to their advantage. By drip-feeding us inaccurate info for 30 days they managed to avoid the 'sudden' impact of the worst eco-disaster in US history. Yes the news leaked out, but the force of the blow was lessened by 30 days of well-spun PR which our media lapped up like the fools that they are.

Anyway, unless BP get lucky this oil spill will triple in size by the time the relief wells are sunk. By then this spill will be 10 times the size of the exxon spill.

I am wondering if BP and the President dont already know, but cannot say "this is impossible to stop until August. And we are not sure we can stop it in August either. And between now and August the BOP is likely to fail completely creating an unimaginable crisis".
A statement like that would be cause for panic and all that goes with it.
The prospects look dismal, frankly.
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NHC sites really glitching up with this first TD..



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Quoting nyhurricaneboy:
Good Morning!

With TD 1-E, the tropics season has officially begun!

yeah it's only 12 days late.
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1762. cg2916
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Morning Weather 456,
Looks like you may be getting a taste of the first tropical system of the season...aren't you in El Salvador?


Not even close. St. Kitts in the Carib.
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Link

This is BP's testimony to Congress this week. Even though it is BP material look for the interpretations given in blue in the timeline. BP themselves have to admit an unbelievable number of missed chances to have stopped this thing.

I can list others that are not industry standard practice...
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Good Morning!

With TD 1-E, the tropics season has officially begun!
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Morning Weather 456,
Looks like you may be getting a taste of the first tropical system of the season...aren't you in El Salvador?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning everyone. I see we got our first TD in the EPAC anyway. They have it dissipating on the 2nd. Which makes sense if it's heading toward the GOM. From what I've read this morning.

GMZ089-291530-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES CENTER 1011 MB AT 25N94W DISSIPATES LATE
TODAY. ATLC RIDGE BUILD WESTWARD ALONG 26N THROUGH PERIOD
MAINTAINING LIGHT BREEZE AND SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS GULF.


MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
420 AM EDT SAT MAY 29 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK HIGH PRES 1011 MB OVER WESTERN GULF AT 25N94W HAS RIDGE EXTEND
E ALONG 25N TO SOUTH FLORIDA. FLAT PRES GRADIENT PROVIDE LIGHT
BREEZE AND ASSOCIATED SLIGHT SEAS ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN. HIGH PRES
DISSIPATES TONIGHT AND ALLOWS ATLC RIDGE TO EXPAND W INTO GULF
WATERS THROUGH WED. GFS ONLY OUTLIER BRINGING LOWER PRESSURES INTO
GULF LATE IN PERIOD...NEVERTHELESS ADVERSE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AND
STRENGTH OF ATLC HIGH PRES MAKES GFS SOLUTION UNLIKELY.

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1757. cg2916
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Financial cutbacks?


No, they already bought whatever imaging software they use.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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