Loop Current Eddy cuts off; oil danger to Keys now greatly reduced

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on May 28, 2010

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A major ocean current re-alignment is underway the Gulf of Mexico right now, and the new configuration that is developing greatly reduces the threat of oil entering the Loop Current and affecting the Florida Keys and U.S. East Coast. As I explain in my Loop Current Primer, the Loop Current is an ocean current that transports warm Caribbean water through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico. The current flows northward into the Gulf of Mexico, then loops southeastward just south of the Florida Keys (where it is called the Florida Current), and past the western Bahamas. Here, the waters of the Loop Current flow northward along the U.S. coast and become the Gulf Stream. With current speeds of about 0.8 m/s, the Loop Current is one of the fastest currents in the Atlantic Ocean. Every 6 - 11 months, the top bulge of the Loop Current cuts off, forming a 250-mile diameter circular eddy in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. This clockwise-spinning eddy is filled with warm water from the Loop Current, and is called a Loop Current Eddy. The main body of the Loop Current then takes a fairly direct eastward path from the Yucatan Channel to the Florida Keys.

Over the past two days, surface currents in the Gulf of Mexico have aligned to form a Loop Current Eddy, as seen in the analysis of surface currents done by the U.S. Navy (Figure 1, and see also a 30-day animation of the eddy forming.) It remains to be seen if the deep water currents have followed suit, and a stable Loop Current Eddy cannot exist until the deep water currents also cut off into a clockwise-rotating ring of water at depth. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is out over the Gulf of Mexico today dropping expendable buoys and current probes to determine if a stable Loop Current Eddy has formed. Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecast Service has a nice discussion on the Loop Current Eddy formation.


Figure 1. Comparison of surface currents in the Gulf of Mexico on May 19 (top) and May 27 (bottom) as simulated by the HYCOM model. On May 19, the Loop Current made a large northward loop into the Gulf, and was able to transport oil from the near the spill location southwards through the Keys. By May 27, this loop had cut off, and new oil moving southwards from the spill will now be trapped in the clockwise rotating Loop Current Eddy that is cut off from the Loop Current. Note on the west side of the Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of Texas, there is an old Loop Current Eddy that cut off from the Loop Current in July 2009. This eddy cut off in the same location as this week's eddy, and has drifted west-southwestward at 3 - 5 km per day over the past ten months. Image credit: U.S. Navy.

If the eddy does remain in place, it will greatly reduce the chances of oil making it to Cuba, the Florida Keys, and beyond. Any oil moving southwards from the spill location will now become entrained in the eddy, and will move in a 250 mile-wide clockwise circle in the east-central Gulf of Mexico. A small portion the oil will get shed away from the eddy's periphery and make it into the Loop Current and waters surrounding the eddy, but the concentrations of oil doing so will be small. Keep in mind, though, that during the first 1 - 2 months that a Loop Current Eddy forms, it is common for the eddy to exchange substantial amounts of water with the Loop Current, and in some cases get re-absorbed into the Loop Current. A 1-year animation of the Loop Current shows that the last Loop Current Eddy, which cut off in mid-July 2009, experienced a 2-week period in early August when it re-attached to the Loop Current. A significant portion of any oil entering the eddy during a period of re-attachment will be able to enter the Loop Current and flow past the Keys.

One bad result of the eddy breaking off is that now we have an extra source of heat energy for passing hurricanes during the upcoming hurricane season. Loop Current eddies have high-temperature water that extends to great depth, and hurricanes passing over such eddies often undergo rapid intensification. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita of 2005 both underwent rapid intensification as they passed over warm Loop Current eddies in 2005. The formation of a Loop Current Eddy during hurricane season means that a much greater portion of the Gulf of Mexico has deep, warm water capable of fueling rapid intensification of hurricanes.

Oil spill update
Light offshore northwesterly winds are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Saturday, resulting decreased threats of oil to the Louisiana shore, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These offshore winds may be able to transport oil southwards into the Loop Current Eddy that just formed; a streamer of oil moving southeastward into the Loop Current Eddy is visible in yesterday's NASA MODIS imagery (Figure 2). Winds will shift to onshore out of the south on Saturday night, then shift to southwesterly by Tuesday. The long-range forecast from the GFS model indicates continued southwesterly winds all of next week. If this forecast verifies, we will see our greatest chances yet of significant amounts of oil reaching the beaches of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico taken at 2:55pm EDT Thursday May 27, 2010, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. Thin streaks of oil can be seen moving southeast and then southwest around the eastern side of the new Loop Current Eddy. Image credit: NASA.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Central American disturbance
The Atlantic is currently quiet, with none of our reliable global forecast models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next 6 days. There is an area of disturbed weather (90E) just off the Pacific coast of Mexico that will be a major concern for southern Mexico and much of Central America over the next 3 - 4 days. The disturbance will bring heavy rains to Central America during the weekend, potentially bringing serious flooding rains to portions of Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. NHC is giving the disturbance a high (>60% chance) of the disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on the tropics.


Figure 3. Satellite image of the Central American disturbance 90E this morning.

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Beginning next week, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays, with the first show June 1. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season

I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I'll be back with at least one update over the coming 3-day Memorial Day weekend. Have a great holiday!

Jeff Masters

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TS Agatha
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
TROPICAL STORM AGATHA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
800 AM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON OFF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 93.2W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM...WSW OF PUERTO DE SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM...W OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...ALL OF
GUATEMALA...AND ALL OF EL SALVADOR FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AGATHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST. AGATHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE PACIFIC
COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

RAINFALL...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF EL SALVADOR...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 30 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY.
THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Fixed Graphic:



(Somebody had to work this holiday weekend)

somebody didn't work hard enough.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
1904. scott39
Quoting masonsnana:
I noticed that too and just about to say something
They are now.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Good morning!

TD 1-E has been upgraded to TS Agatha, but the glitch on the forecast cone is back.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
How come thier not showing TD1-E on the tropical/hurricane pg on this site?
I noticed that too and just about to say something
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 291431
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM AGATHA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
800 AM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON OFF THE COAST OF GUATEMALA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 93.2W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM...WSW OF PUERTO DE SAN JOSE GUATEMALA
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM...W OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...ALL OF
GUATEMALA...AND ALL OF EL SALVADOR FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AGATHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.2 WEST. AGATHA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE PACIFIC
COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

RAINFALL...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF EL SALVADOR...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 30 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES
LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE
AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Our first TD in the EPAC should be named very soon. Should make landfall later tonight or Sunday. Winds near 50mph @ landfall, but rainfall in the range of 10-20 inches will be expected due to its slow movement and demise by Monday.

The overdone CMC and computer convective feedbacks are normal for the GFS during May and June.. right now, Ill give this a 10-20% chance of making it into the GOM. We see this every year by the 2 models. If something was to form near the Yucitan, it will be from something else
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1723
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:


8am advisories are the main ones, not the intermediate ones.
Oh you're right, they do it different from us, thanks for the heads up.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1897. pottery
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Is it raining cats and dogs there? Judging from satellite it looks that way.


It was, 1/2 hr ago. A lull overhead right now.
I am just west of center of the Island. Looks like more heavy in the NorthEast and SW of the island.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1896. IKE
Quoting scott39:
How come thier not showing TD1-E on the tropical/hurricane pg on this site?


Temporary...now they are.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting pottery:
Hi Kimoskee.
The first sentence in your post says "4 mm"
Cant be right...


I wondered... copies it straight off the Gleaner website so I didn't make any changes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1894. scott39
Quoting tropicaltank:
Why can't TD-1 make it into the GOM.I remember in the old days(1960s)We never knew where a storm was really headed.Are we that much improved?
Just a little!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The 8AM intermediate advisory should be out soon. It should look like this:

EP, 01, 2010052912, , BEST, 0, 130N, 934W, 35, 1004, TS,


8am advisories are the main ones, not the intermediate ones.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1892. scott39
How come thier not showing TD1-E on the tropical/hurricane pg on this site?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Good morning to all of the regulars... Looks like the hurricane experts have crawled out from under the bridges and are invading the blog
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:
Hi Kimoskee.
The first sentence in your post says "4 mm"
Cant be right...
Is it raining cats and dogs there? Judging from satellite it looks that way.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Why can't TD-1 make it into the GOM.I remember in the old days(1960s)We never knew where a storm was really headed.Are we that much improved?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1888. pottery
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


I would suggest you package the " Heavy Stuff and Whatnot" in Herbert Boxes for shipping....

Brilliant Idea.
I am looking for Creative Marketing President right now. Interested?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1887. hydrus
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Yes, but it could still re-emerge as it enters the Atlantic and a circulation could re-develop when it enters a low-shear region as it is still protected by an anticyclone.
A few of the models have a tropical storm moving into the west coast of Florida in about a week, with another low developing behind it. The Canadian GEM model is very aggressive with this scenario.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting centralflaman:



NO!! All that will do is make us even more dependant on foreign oil and more of our dollars will go to terrorist countries. More regulations yes! Stop it NO!


MOst of the oil from the GOM goes overseas anyway. BAnning drilling will not make us more dependant on foreign oil. We need to, at the same time, ban offshore drilling, and then get serious about ending our oil addiction.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Also, I am applying for Export Permits. The plan is to Export these things to somewhere else...
Dont really want them around here.


I would suggest you package the " Heavy Stuff and Whatnot" in Hebert Boxes for shipping....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Fixed Graphic:



(Somebody had to work this holiday weekend)
LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1883. pottery
Hi Kimoskee.
The first sentence in your post says "4 mm"
Cant be right...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
5 am PDT Graphics Update:
Storm Track:

Advisories:
The 8AM intermediate advisory should be out soon. It should look like this:

EP, 01, 2010052912, , BEST, 0, 130N, 934W, 35, 1004, TS,
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
hey MiamiHurricanes09 you are right I don;t know what the models are doing maybe there drunk
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Fixed Graphic:



(Somebody had to work this holiday weekend)


It is Agatha now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Senator Sanders (VT) has introduced legislation to ban offshore drilling and to boost vehicle energy efficiency. Its called the "Clean Coasts and Efficient Cars Act of 2010"

You can help this move by calling and then writing your Senators and Representatives and ask them to support Senator Sanders.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
yup change your graphics

We have Agatha
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Fixed Graphic:
Tropical Storm AGATHA



(Somebody had to work this holiday weekend)


EDIT>>>> Stay tuned...
it WAS fixed momentarily....
Now other graphics are right but this is bad

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1876. pottery
Quoting pottery:

Was just trying out a new recipe for "Isolated Heavy Stuff and Whatnot"
Working really well, No?
heheheheheh

Also, I am applying for Export Permits. The plan is to Export these things to somewhere else...
Dont really want them around here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Yes, but it could still re-emerge as it enters the Atlantic and a circulation could re-develop when it enters a low-shear region as it is still protected by an anticyclone.
And where are you planning for this system to re-emerge?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Judging from steering currents TD 1-E/Agatha should be blasted towards the Caribbean and not the Gulf of Mexico. Models seeing something I'm not?

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Heavy rains pound Jamaica

Published: Saturday | May 29, 2010 0 Comments and 0 Reactions

MANY HOMES were flooded yesterday as some sections of the island experienced up to four millimetres of rainfall. The Meteorological Service issued a flash-flood watch for the low-lying and flood-prone areas of all parishes yesterday.

The Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) said yesterday that a national response team had been put on alert to assist affected persons.

Michelle Edwards, director of litigation planning and research at the ODPEM, said the agency was ready to assist all persons faced with difficulties due to the recent rainfalls. She said the ODPEM team was on high alert.

On Friday, 15 homes were flooded in New Haven, St Andrew. In response, the ODPEM opened the Edith Dalton High School as a shelter for displaced individuals and families requiring accommodation. There have also been reports of flooding in Callaloo Mews and Patrick City, as well as fallen trees in the Portmore area.

The ODPEM also urged residents to leave low-lying and flood-prone areas if they were threatened by rising waters. It has also warned individuals to avoid flooded waterways, such as gullies, fordings, rivers and streams.

The rains currently affecting the island have been triggered by a trough, which is expected to remain until Sunday.

Troughs are elongated areas of relatively low atmospheric pressure that cause precipitation. They are a regular part of the weather pattern in the Caribbean.


… Ravage St Catherine roads
Rasbert Turner, Gleaner Writer

Heavy rains that pelted the island yesterday left several roads in St Catherine impassable, as some communities in the southern parish were transformed into mini-lakes, partly because of poor drainage.

Thoroughfares, such as Old Harbour Road and Salt Pond Road, about 100 metres from Jonathan Grant High School, were also affected by flooding, as commuters travelling to and from Greater Portmore and Dunbeholden were forced to find alternative routes.

Sections of Friendship Meadows, Hill Run, Ensom City and Hartlands were also inundated, as residents struggled to save furniture as flood waters scoured the communities.

Checks made at the Spanish Town Hospital found personnel using water boots and raincoats while performing their duties.

Meanwhile, Patricia Lewis, parish disaster coordinator for St Catherine, said there were no flood-related fatalities.

She said the parish disaster committee was on high alert should their support system need to be activated.

"The team is ready to assist in case it becomes necessary, but for right now, there is no reported loss of life, so we are thankful," Lewis said.

The police have advised motorists to traverse the Bog Walk gorge with caution, as falling boulders pose danger to the key corridor, which links the capital with resort towns in St Mary, St Ann and St James.

- rasbert.turner@gleanerjm.com
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Tell Obama to BAN offshore drilling!



NO!! All that will do is make us even more dependant on foreign oil and more of our dollars will go to terrorist countries. More regulations yes! Stop it NO!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

it's circulation with get disrupted by the mountains


Yes, but it could still re-emerge as it enters the Atlantic and a circulation could re-develop when it enters a low-shear region as it is still protected by an anticyclone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1870. pottery
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:




Morning Pottery...

Whatcha cookin' up down there?

CRS

Was just trying out a new recipe for "Isolated Heavy Stuff and Whatnot"
Working really well, No?
heheheheheh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
5 am PDT Graphics Update:
Storm Track:

Advisories:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thank you Aussie. THat is what I was thinking. I find it amazing the effect mountains can have on these storms.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Asta:
Link


Tell Obama to BAN offshore drilling!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting breald:
You know, I would agree that Obama, himself, should have been more visible. That being said, he cannot be blamed for this spill and its devastation.

We are not doing ourselves any favors by blaming Obama and not the Government as a whole. Our whole system from the Surpreme Court to congress is rigged to favor corporations.



But everytime he gets in front of a camera he says he is in charge and nothing is being done without his approval! That statement makes him responsible for the timeframe of stopping the leak and the clean-up. It is obvious that his ego gets in the way of him. He loves to say he is in charge. BP has already spent close to a billion dollars and still going. They will not get off on this at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GainesvilleGator:
I just read where if this oil leak can be stopped sometime over the Memorial weekend the cleanup can be completed by Labor Day.

Maybe we are lucky & no storms in GOM in June but it would be wishful thinking to say no storms in July. If leak isn't stopped until relieve wells are completed in August then it is going to be a big mess when storms scatter oil over whole Gulf Coast.


It will take 10 years to clean it up and 100+ years for the effects of this to work out of the system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lickitysplit:
Morning all.

I'm curious what the more educated here think about the possibility of TD1 making it into the GOM and surviving the central american mountains. Thank you. I appreciate the opinions.

As for the BP oil gusher....well, just sickening.

it's circulation with get disrupted by the mountains
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
1863. pottery
Quoting cg2916:


Well, I have no experience with this, I was just thinking what might happen.

No prob.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Chances are minimal. Although we have above average SSTs in the Gulf of Mexico they still aren't hot enough to support intensification. And that's not the least of it's problems, shear also plays a major role. A seasonal subtropical jet-stream usually is in the gulf and east of Florida. This increases shear to the 40+ knot threshold. I do not expect development of TD 1-E once/if it gets into the Gulf of Mexico.


THank you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Met Service of Jamaica

May 29, 2010 at 5:00 a.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Broad Trough across the central Caribbean, including Jamaica.

Comment…
The Trough will remain across the central Caribbean until Tuesday but weather conditions
across the island should improve by tomorrow.

TODAY'S FORECAST
This Morning… Mostly cloudy across western parishes, mainly sunny elsewhere.
This Afternoon… Showers and thunderstorms across most parishes during the afternoon.
Tonight… Lingering showers.

3-DAYS FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Sun… Isolated afternoon showers mainly across southern parishes and hilly inland areas.
Mon… Isolated afternoon showers mainly across central and western parishes.
Tue… Scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms.


Regionally… An Area of Low Pressure is across the southwestern Caribbean.
nch/kjb
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Not sure how clean could be completed in our lifetimes, the impact is just too great.

Just praying they plug that hole very soon.


Quoting GainesvilleGator:
I just read where if this oil leak can be stopped sometime over the Memorial weekend the cleanup can be completed by Labor Day.

Maybe we are lucky & no storms in GOM in June but it would be wishful thinking to say no storms in July. If leak isn't stopped until relieve wells are completed in August then it is going to be a big mess when storms scatter oil over whole Gulf Coast.
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1859. pottery
Quoting breald:
You know, I would agree that Obama, himself, should have been more visible. That being said, he cannot be blamed for this spill and its devastation.

We are not doing ourselves any favors by blaming Obama and not the Government as a whole. Our whole system from the Surpreme Court to congress is rigged to favor corporations.

Very true, apparently.
But the political system that most of us live under (and enjoy) puts too much pressure on the Politician.
We DEMAND cheaper goods and services, and if we dont get them we change Administrations like we change dirty socks.
And if the Politician tries to introduce laws that make for more holistic and responsible Industry, the price of goods and service go up, and we change them again
No way to win....
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:
CMC puts the remnants of 90L on the western side of the Bermuda high by 144h, while GFS merges it with a western Mediterranean system.

Based on available model runs and discussions, I predict that we will have four Atlantic tropical storms (including two hurricanes) by the end of June.
You're crazy.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Satellite WV imagery shows that the SE US low drifted there from Minnesota two days ago.

850 mb vorticity...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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