Loop Current Eddy cuts off; oil danger to Keys now greatly reduced

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on May 28, 2010

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A major ocean current re-alignment is underway the Gulf of Mexico right now, and the new configuration that is developing greatly reduces the threat of oil entering the Loop Current and affecting the Florida Keys and U.S. East Coast. As I explain in my Loop Current Primer, the Loop Current is an ocean current that transports warm Caribbean water through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico. The current flows northward into the Gulf of Mexico, then loops southeastward just south of the Florida Keys (where it is called the Florida Current), and past the western Bahamas. Here, the waters of the Loop Current flow northward along the U.S. coast and become the Gulf Stream. With current speeds of about 0.8 m/s, the Loop Current is one of the fastest currents in the Atlantic Ocean. Every 6 - 11 months, the top bulge of the Loop Current cuts off, forming a 250-mile diameter circular eddy in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. This clockwise-spinning eddy is filled with warm water from the Loop Current, and is called a Loop Current Eddy. The main body of the Loop Current then takes a fairly direct eastward path from the Yucatan Channel to the Florida Keys.

Over the past two days, surface currents in the Gulf of Mexico have aligned to form a Loop Current Eddy, as seen in the analysis of surface currents done by the U.S. Navy (Figure 1, and see also a 30-day animation of the eddy forming.) It remains to be seen if the deep water currents have followed suit, and a stable Loop Current Eddy cannot exist until the deep water currents also cut off into a clockwise-rotating ring of water at depth. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is out over the Gulf of Mexico today dropping expendable buoys and current probes to determine if a stable Loop Current Eddy has formed. Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecast Service has a nice discussion on the Loop Current Eddy formation.


Figure 1. Comparison of surface currents in the Gulf of Mexico on May 19 (top) and May 27 (bottom) as simulated by the HYCOM model. On May 19, the Loop Current made a large northward loop into the Gulf, and was able to transport oil from the near the spill location southwards through the Keys. By May 27, this loop had cut off, and new oil moving southwards from the spill will now be trapped in the clockwise rotating Loop Current Eddy that is cut off from the Loop Current. Note on the west side of the Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of Texas, there is an old Loop Current Eddy that cut off from the Loop Current in July 2009. This eddy cut off in the same location as this week's eddy, and has drifted west-southwestward at 3 - 5 km per day over the past ten months. Image credit: U.S. Navy.

If the eddy does remain in place, it will greatly reduce the chances of oil making it to Cuba, the Florida Keys, and beyond. Any oil moving southwards from the spill location will now become entrained in the eddy, and will move in a 250 mile-wide clockwise circle in the east-central Gulf of Mexico. A small portion the oil will get shed away from the eddy's periphery and make it into the Loop Current and waters surrounding the eddy, but the concentrations of oil doing so will be small. Keep in mind, though, that during the first 1 - 2 months that a Loop Current Eddy forms, it is common for the eddy to exchange substantial amounts of water with the Loop Current, and in some cases get re-absorbed into the Loop Current. A 1-year animation of the Loop Current shows that the last Loop Current Eddy, which cut off in mid-July 2009, experienced a 2-week period in early August when it re-attached to the Loop Current. A significant portion of any oil entering the eddy during a period of re-attachment will be able to enter the Loop Current and flow past the Keys.

One bad result of the eddy breaking off is that now we have an extra source of heat energy for passing hurricanes during the upcoming hurricane season. Loop Current eddies have high-temperature water that extends to great depth, and hurricanes passing over such eddies often undergo rapid intensification. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita of 2005 both underwent rapid intensification as they passed over warm Loop Current eddies in 2005. The formation of a Loop Current Eddy during hurricane season means that a much greater portion of the Gulf of Mexico has deep, warm water capable of fueling rapid intensification of hurricanes.

Oil spill update
Light offshore northwesterly winds are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Saturday, resulting decreased threats of oil to the Louisiana shore, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These offshore winds may be able to transport oil southwards into the Loop Current Eddy that just formed; a streamer of oil moving southeastward into the Loop Current Eddy is visible in yesterday's NASA MODIS imagery (Figure 2). Winds will shift to onshore out of the south on Saturday night, then shift to southwesterly by Tuesday. The long-range forecast from the GFS model indicates continued southwesterly winds all of next week. If this forecast verifies, we will see our greatest chances yet of significant amounts of oil reaching the beaches of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico taken at 2:55pm EDT Thursday May 27, 2010, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. Thin streaks of oil can be seen moving southeast and then southwest around the eastern side of the new Loop Current Eddy. Image credit: NASA.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Central American disturbance
The Atlantic is currently quiet, with none of our reliable global forecast models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next 6 days. There is an area of disturbed weather (90E) just off the Pacific coast of Mexico that will be a major concern for southern Mexico and much of Central America over the next 3 - 4 days. The disturbance will bring heavy rains to Central America during the weekend, potentially bringing serious flooding rains to portions of Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. NHC is giving the disturbance a high (>60% chance) of the disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on the tropics.


Figure 3. Satellite image of the Central American disturbance 90E this morning.

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Beginning next week, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays, with the first show June 1. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season

I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I'll be back with at least one update over the coming 3-day Memorial Day weekend. Have a great holiday!

Jeff Masters

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2007. pottery
Quoting MahFL:
Oh oh, looks like they are about to cut a pipe off the BOP in the Gulf !!!

Where to go, to see that?
Not showing that on the CNN feed.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


Nice graphics, Matt :)
Haha. Thanks Cody. But don't thank me, thank AllStar17. He helped me make them :)
Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
Late yesterday afternoon there was a discussion here about what may happen IF what was then 90E developed and came ashore in Guatemala.

I made the point then that the terrain in that country, which reaches over 13,000 feet in places, including the Western side where the storm is headed, would decouple the system and prevent it from traversing into the Caribbean intact.

If anyone has watched what the mountains of Hispaniola has done to major hurricanes before you will easily picture what lies in store for this storm.

The mid to upper level circulation may make it into the extreme Western Caribbean and if conditions are right could work its way back down to the surface. If that happened it might regenerate into a cyclone but all of that is conjecture that is way off into the future for a slow mover like this.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scottsvb:


Well said! I agree
What?!?!?!?!? That's what I've been saying for the past 20 minutes.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
2001. Hurricanes101
3:22 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
LMAO scott that is what MH09 was saying and you just disagreed with him

Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7685
2000. MahFL
3:21 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Oh oh, looks like they are about to cut a pipe off the BOP in the Gulf !!!
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3492
1999. scottsvb
3:21 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Scott it absolutely does matter whether the storm is a TS or a CAT 4 hurricane

Steering is not the same at every layer and as a storm gets stronger it begins to get steered by the mid and upper level steering

Weak systems are steered more by the lower level steering.


Well said! I agree
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1689
1998. Motttt
3:20 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
there going to do some cutting on the bop
Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 213
1996. scott39
3:20 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Will somebody take shot at post 1979, and please dont tell me its not going to happen. I just want a theory as to track and intensity. Thanks
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6775
1995. Hurricanes101
3:19 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Scott it absolutely does matter whether the storm is a TS or a CAT 4 hurricane

Steering is not the same at every layer and as a storm gets stronger it begins to get steered by the mid and upper level steering

Weak systems are steered more by the lower level steering.
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7685
1994. pottery
3:19 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:


I put the link in my Blog... save some people from having to make up an excuse :)

I saw that. Very good idea.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
1993. scottsvb
3:19 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You see why the GFS can't be trusted as a model?



GFS is a very good model.. it just has some convective feedback problems and blows up stuff.
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1689
1992. reedzone
3:19 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Why do METs on here have to be soo stuck up? I find that quite rude! So what if you're a MET, you dont know it all...
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7387
1989. MiamiHurricanes09
3:17 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
The GFS model has Agatha going into the Gulf, cutting across Florida, and running up the coast, as a TS.

You see why the GFS can't be trusted as a model?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1988. cyclonekid
3:17 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Tropical Storm Agatha





Member Since: July 14, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 1731
1987. MiamiHurricanes09
3:16 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Quoting scottsvb:


I guess I dont know what you were saying. Dont matter if its a Tropical Storm or Cat 4.. it will make not difference to the steering of a system by the midlevel flow.
Whatever, I give up on you.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1985. JamesSA
3:15 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
I think TS Agatha is really the remnants of last year's Hurricane Bill that have finally reorganized after circling the globe during the off season... so it is entirely possible that it can survive the mountains and emerge in the Caribbean as a strong Cat 5 heading right for Miami. ;-) Ok, maybe not.

Let the season begin.
Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 579
1984. AussieStorm
3:15 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Quoting Funkadelic:
Good saturday morning to everybody! Im still holding strong to my prediction that Alex forms June 7th at 8PM.

Lol
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
1983. pottery
3:15 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Quoting atmoaggie:

It's more than energy, it everything that makes us (all of us that have the capability to waste a little time in an internet forum) not 3rd world.

Here is a list, beyond fuels, of some of the products dependent on crude oil:

* Ammonia
* Asphalt for paving roads
* Automobiles
* Balls
* Bicycles
* Bubblegum
* Child safety gates
* Coolers
* Crayons
* Deodorants
* Detergent containers
* Dishwashing liquids
* Electricity
* Eyeglasses
* Fertilizers
* Garden hoses
* Gas ranges
* Heart valves
* Heat for houses
* Heavy-duty plastic (toolbox)
* Helmets
* Ink
* Lubricants for machinery large and small, such as bicycles or printing presses
* Medicines
* Outlet covers
* Packaging for cough syrup and shampoo
* Pain reliever coating to protect the stomach
* Paint binder and solvent
* Pesticides
* Plastic plates
* Plastic wrap
* Portable radios, CD and MP3 players
* Propane grills
* Propane for heat
* Protective coating on inside of cartons and juice boxes
* Refrigerators
* Resealable bags and containers
* Rugs
* Tires
* Toys
* Varnishes
* Vinyl siding
* Wiring insulation

Go without, be my guest. Or just be holier-than-thou hypocritical. None of us here can avoid everything sourced to crude oil, nor should we want to.

Just need to develop better spill avoidance technologies and use them.

That is Spot-On, Atmo.
No other energy source will produce all of those things. That's the reality of the situation.
My point was that more regulation (in terms of Safety and Environmental) is badly needed, but that "we" are hesitant to pay the additional costs involved.
I have never advocated the stopping of oil production.
There is no viable option....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
1982. reedzone
3:15 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Miamihurricanes09, you got mail, it's important..
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7387
1981. reedzone
3:14 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Morning everyone, TS Agatha right on time for the Pacific Hurricane Season, note this will be one of few storms this year do to La Nina forming. It's gonna be the Atlantic that will be active this year.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7387
1980. scottsvb
3:14 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Quoting amd:
Once Agatha hits the mountains of Central America, the system will decouple. That is why the low-level circulation will turn to the west north west and die after landfall.

However, there is a chance that the mid-level moisture moves into the Caribbean, but the probability of an organized tropical system surviving that mountainous travel at that slow speed, and reemerging into the Caribbean is almost nil. IMO.



agreed!
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1689
1979. scott39
3:14 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
What happens if Agatha goes in the BOC? Be gentle!!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6775
1978. scottsvb
3:13 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Exactly!


I guess I dont know what you were saying. Dont matter if its a Tropical Storm or Cat 4.. it will make no difference to the steering of a system by the midlevel flow.
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1689
1977. MiamiHurricanes09
3:13 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Quoting Funkadelic:
Good saturday morning to everybody! Im still holding strong to my prediction that Alex forms June 7th at 8PM.
On May 1st I said we were going to get our first system on May 29th. I guess I messed up on the basin, lol. You're prediction sounds right.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1976. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:12 PM GMT on May 29, 2010


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 MAY 2010 Time : 141500 UTC
Lat : 13:04:29 N Lon : 93:15:01 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 / 997.0mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.5 2.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -70.6C Cloud Region Temp : -66.6C

Scene Type : USER DEFINED INITIAL CLASSIFICATION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53827
1975. Orcasystems
3:12 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Quoting Funkadelic:
Good saturday morning to everybody! Im still holding strong to my prediction that Alex forms June 7th at 8PM.


You might want to book mark that link :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1974. AllStar17
3:12 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
**REPOST**
TROPICAL STORM AGATHA
11 am EDT Graphics Update
STORM TRACK:

ADVISORIES:
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5313
1972. scott39
3:11 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Quoting atmoaggie:

It's more than energy, it everything that makes us (all of us that have the capability to waste a little time in an internet forum) not 3rd world.

Here is a list, beyond fuels, of some of the products dependent on crude oil:

* Ammonia
* Asphalt for paving roads
* Automobiles
* Balls
* Bicycles
* Bubblegum
* Child safety gates
* Coolers
* Crayons
* Deodorants
* Detergent containers
* Dishwashing liquids
* Electricity
* Eyeglasses
* Fertilizers
* Garden hoses
* Gas ranges
* Heart valves
* Heat for houses
* Heavy-duty plastic (toolbox)
* Helmets
* Ink
* Lubricants for machinery large and small, such as bicycles or printing presses
* Medicines
* Outlet covers
* Packaging for cough syrup and shampoo
* Pain reliever coating to protect the stomach
* Paint binder and solvent
* Pesticides
* Plastic plates
* Plastic wrap
* Portable radios, CD and MP3 players
* Propane grills
* Propane for heat
* Protective coating on inside of cartons and juice boxes
* Refrigerators
* Resealable bags and containers
* Rugs
* Tires
* Toys
* Varnishes
* Vinyl siding
* Wiring insulation

Go without, be my guest. Or just be holier-than-thou hypocritical. None of us here can avoid everything sourced to crude oil, nor should we want to.

Just need to develop better spill avoidance technologies and use them.
Well said, we are all addicted to oil!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6775
1971. amd
3:10 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Once Agatha hits the mountains of Central America, the system will decouple. That is why the low-level circulation will turn to the west north west and die after landfall.

However, there is a chance that the mid-level moisture moves into the Caribbean, but the probability of an organized tropical system surviving that mountainous travel at that slow speed, and reemerging into the Caribbean is almost nil. IMO.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1024
1970. MiamiHurricanes09
3:10 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Steering occurs in many layers of the atmosphere

Scott, what MH09 is saying is that the steering for a Tropical Storm is different than if Agatha would be a Major Hurricane

So steering does in fact change based on the strength of the system, it is not the storm itself that is changing the steering
Exactly!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1969. Orcasystems
3:10 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Quoting pottery:

LOL Orc. Keep that handy...


I put the link in my Blog... save some people from having to make up an excuse :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1968. scottsvb
3:09 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
I know what your saying.. but once there is a LLC.. it will feel the midlevel flow.. but once it becomes a shallow low, or open wave, it will be moved by the LLF or ridging. It dont have to be a strong system to get pushed faster or slower.. As long as the system has a LLC and midlevel to it.. it will get steered by the midlevel steering current :)

btw ridging will move up from S America into the carribean by early this upcoming week.. this will push anything North that would be in the NW carribean.
Member Since: January 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1689
1967. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:09 PM GMT on May 29, 2010

01E
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE 18:00UTC 19June2009
UW-CIMSS Experimental Vertical Shear and TC Intensity Trend Estimates

Current Conditions (from TPC) :
Latitude : 21:43:03 N
Longitude : 107:01:13 W
Intensity (MSLP) : 1009.0 hPa

Max Pot Int (MPI,from Emanuel) : 908.5 hPa
MPI differential (MSLP-MPI) : 100.5 hPa

CIMSS Vertical Shear Magnitude : 6.5 m/s
Direction : 197.2 deg

Outlook for TC Intensification Based on Current
Env. Shear Values and MPI Differential
Forecast Interval : 6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
F F F F

Legend : VF-Very Favorable F-Favorable N-Neutral
U-Unfavorable VU-Very Unfavorable

-- Mean Intensity Trend (negative indicates TC deepening) --
6hr 12hr 18hr 24hr
VF <-3.0mb/ 6hr <-6.0mb/12hr <-9.0mb/18hr <-12.0mb/24hr
F -3.0 - -1.0 -6.0 - -2.0 -9.0 - -3.0 -12.0 - -4.0
N -1.0 - +1.0 -2.0 - +2.0 -3.0 - +3.0 -4.0 - +4.0
U +1.0 - +3.0 +2.0 - +6.0 +3.0 - +9.0 +4.0 -+12.0
VU >+3.0 >+6.0 >+9.0 >+12.0

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53827
1966. pottery
3:09 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:
I can see this TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI being very well used this season :)

LOL Orc. Keep that handy...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
1965. atmoaggie
3:09 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Quoting lickitysplit:
RE: 1805

The American people are the addict, keeper. Ultimately, this spill is all of our fault. We are so addicted to oil it dictates our foreign policy and simply made this mess possible. The sooner we move to cleaner energy sources the better we will be.

It's more than energy, it everything that makes us (all of us that have the capability to waste a little time in an internet forum) not 3rd world.

Here is a list, beyond fuels, of some of the products dependent on crude oil:

* Ammonia
* Asphalt for paving roads
* Automobiles
* Balls
* Bicycles
* Bubblegum
* Child safety gates
* Coolers
* Crayons
* Deodorants
* Detergent containers
* Dishwashing liquids
* Electricity
* Eyeglasses
* Fertilizers
* Garden hoses
* Gas ranges
* Heart valves
* Heat for houses
* Heavy-duty plastic (toolbox)
* Helmets
* Ink
* Lubricants for machinery large and small, such as bicycles or printing presses
* Medicines
* Outlet covers
* Packaging for cough syrup and shampoo
* Pain reliever coating to protect the stomach
* Paint binder and solvent
* Pesticides
* Plastic plates
* Plastic wrap
* Portable radios, CD and MP3 players
* Propane grills
* Propane for heat
* Protective coating on inside of cartons and juice boxes
* Refrigerators
* Resealable bags and containers
* Rugs
* Tires
* Toys
* Varnishes
* Vinyl siding
* Wiring insulation

Go without, be my guest. Or just be holier-than-thou hypocritical. None of us here can avoid everything sourced to crude oil, nor should we want to.

Just need to develop better spill avoidance technologies and use them.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1964. Hurricanes101
3:08 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Steering occurs in many layers of the atmosphere

Scott, what MH09 is saying is that the steering for a Tropical Storm is different than if Agatha would be a Major Hurricane

So steering does in fact change based on the strength of the system, it is not the storm itself that is changing the steering
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7685
1963. JamesSA
3:08 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
I wonder what BP is doing that made them decide to put recorded video from 5 hours ago on the live feed? Strange. They could have just switched to another camera if they didn't want people to see something.
Member Since: August 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 579
1962. pottery
3:07 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Quoting Dr3w:
Good Morning all.
Does anyone believe that Agatha could make it's way into the Caribbean and redevelop there?

Some people do.
Read back a couple pages...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
1961. SavannahStorm
3:07 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Has anyone speculated the effects of the Guatemala volcano ash cloud on Agatha? It's quite possible it could have a "cloud-seeding" effect, causing increased precipitation as water droplets cling to ash particles. This could add to an already terrible situation in Guatemala.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2342
1960. Orcasystems
3:07 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
I can see this TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI being very well used this season :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1959. scott39
3:07 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It's been a crazy day and we only have a TS in the EPAC. Imagine when we get the Major hurricanes in the Atlantic.
Yea,and in a row too!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6775
1957. MiamiHurricanes09
3:06 PM GMT on May 29, 2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
your letting it go to your head relax
It's been a crazy day and we only have a TS in the EPAC. Imagine when we get the Major hurricanes in the Atlantic.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.