Loop Current Eddy cuts off; oil danger to Keys now greatly reduced

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on May 28, 2010

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A major ocean current re-alignment is underway the Gulf of Mexico right now, and the new configuration that is developing greatly reduces the threat of oil entering the Loop Current and affecting the Florida Keys and U.S. East Coast. As I explain in my Loop Current Primer, the Loop Current is an ocean current that transports warm Caribbean water through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico. The current flows northward into the Gulf of Mexico, then loops southeastward just south of the Florida Keys (where it is called the Florida Current), and past the western Bahamas. Here, the waters of the Loop Current flow northward along the U.S. coast and become the Gulf Stream. With current speeds of about 0.8 m/s, the Loop Current is one of the fastest currents in the Atlantic Ocean. Every 6 - 11 months, the top bulge of the Loop Current cuts off, forming a 250-mile diameter circular eddy in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. This clockwise-spinning eddy is filled with warm water from the Loop Current, and is called a Loop Current Eddy. The main body of the Loop Current then takes a fairly direct eastward path from the Yucatan Channel to the Florida Keys.

Over the past two days, surface currents in the Gulf of Mexico have aligned to form a Loop Current Eddy, as seen in the analysis of surface currents done by the U.S. Navy (Figure 1, and see also a 30-day animation of the eddy forming.) It remains to be seen if the deep water currents have followed suit, and a stable Loop Current Eddy cannot exist until the deep water currents also cut off into a clockwise-rotating ring of water at depth. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is out over the Gulf of Mexico today dropping expendable buoys and current probes to determine if a stable Loop Current Eddy has formed. Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecast Service has a nice discussion on the Loop Current Eddy formation.


Figure 1. Comparison of surface currents in the Gulf of Mexico on May 19 (top) and May 27 (bottom) as simulated by the HYCOM model. On May 19, the Loop Current made a large northward loop into the Gulf, and was able to transport oil from the near the spill location southwards through the Keys. By May 27, this loop had cut off, and new oil moving southwards from the spill will now be trapped in the clockwise rotating Loop Current Eddy that is cut off from the Loop Current. Note on the west side of the Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of Texas, there is an old Loop Current Eddy that cut off from the Loop Current in July 2009. This eddy cut off in the same location as this week's eddy, and has drifted west-southwestward at 3 - 5 km per day over the past ten months. Image credit: U.S. Navy.

If the eddy does remain in place, it will greatly reduce the chances of oil making it to Cuba, the Florida Keys, and beyond. Any oil moving southwards from the spill location will now become entrained in the eddy, and will move in a 250 mile-wide clockwise circle in the east-central Gulf of Mexico. A small portion the oil will get shed away from the eddy's periphery and make it into the Loop Current and waters surrounding the eddy, but the concentrations of oil doing so will be small. Keep in mind, though, that during the first 1 - 2 months that a Loop Current Eddy forms, it is common for the eddy to exchange substantial amounts of water with the Loop Current, and in some cases get re-absorbed into the Loop Current. A 1-year animation of the Loop Current shows that the last Loop Current Eddy, which cut off in mid-July 2009, experienced a 2-week period in early August when it re-attached to the Loop Current. A significant portion of any oil entering the eddy during a period of re-attachment will be able to enter the Loop Current and flow past the Keys.

One bad result of the eddy breaking off is that now we have an extra source of heat energy for passing hurricanes during the upcoming hurricane season. Loop Current eddies have high-temperature water that extends to great depth, and hurricanes passing over such eddies often undergo rapid intensification. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita of 2005 both underwent rapid intensification as they passed over warm Loop Current eddies in 2005. The formation of a Loop Current Eddy during hurricane season means that a much greater portion of the Gulf of Mexico has deep, warm water capable of fueling rapid intensification of hurricanes.

Oil spill update
Light offshore northwesterly winds are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Saturday, resulting decreased threats of oil to the Louisiana shore, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These offshore winds may be able to transport oil southwards into the Loop Current Eddy that just formed; a streamer of oil moving southeastward into the Loop Current Eddy is visible in yesterday's NASA MODIS imagery (Figure 2). Winds will shift to onshore out of the south on Saturday night, then shift to southwesterly by Tuesday. The long-range forecast from the GFS model indicates continued southwesterly winds all of next week. If this forecast verifies, we will see our greatest chances yet of significant amounts of oil reaching the beaches of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico taken at 2:55pm EDT Thursday May 27, 2010, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. Thin streaks of oil can be seen moving southeast and then southwest around the eastern side of the new Loop Current Eddy. Image credit: NASA.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Central American disturbance
The Atlantic is currently quiet, with none of our reliable global forecast models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next 6 days. There is an area of disturbed weather (90E) just off the Pacific coast of Mexico that will be a major concern for southern Mexico and much of Central America over the next 3 - 4 days. The disturbance will bring heavy rains to Central America during the weekend, potentially bringing serious flooding rains to portions of Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. NHC is giving the disturbance a high (>60% chance) of the disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on the tropics.


Figure 3. Satellite image of the Central American disturbance 90E this morning.

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Beginning next week, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays, with the first show June 1. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season

I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I'll be back with at least one update over the coming 3-day Memorial Day weekend. Have a great holiday!

Jeff Masters

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2606. Patrap
That big convective Burst is inland and where the deed is being done,but the center is still Se of that
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2605. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


Proud of it too lol. I've learned so much more from him than I could from anyone else. He understands and shares a lot of things about the earth's weather processes that you never hear about anywhere else. A lot of what you hear me say is stuff I learned from him over the going on 10 years that I've watched him.


That's true but I hope you will be able to expand your horizon...
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Actually she is offshore, the convection is on the northern side of the acutal center of circulation
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7361
2603. IKE
Thunderstorm heading right over me...

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2602. xcool
NHC OFF BIG TIME..
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2601. Patrap
Makes a tad sense now with the Dvorak Position from 1800 UTC



2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

The same infrared imagery shown in the earth relative framework is displayed in a storm relative framework, with a 2km resolution and enhanced with the "BD Curve" which is useful for directly inferring intensity via the Dvorak Enhanced IR (EIR) technique. Scaling is provided by two lightly hatched circles around the center. The two circles have radii of 1 and 2 degrees latitude, respectively.

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2600. Drakoen
They have her at the tip of the arrow I drew up

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, I think the NHC is off on that one.


Well, not much one can say except agree or disagree. Looks onshore near the border with Mexico to me.
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On possibly a positive note, a faster moving Agatha may mean less rain for the region.
The volcano Pacaya which erupted earlier this week is close to some of Guatemala's most prized coffee plantations. The national coffee association, Anacafe, had no immediate reports of serious damage to crops.

Coffee workers said on Friday rain from the storm was helping to clean ash off trees and were optimistic crop damage would be minimal.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
2597. Patrap
Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis

1800 UTC
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Quoting Levi32:


Proud of it too lol. I've learned so much more from him than I could from anyone else. He understands and shares a lot of things about the earth's weather processes that you never hear about anywhere else. A lot of what you hear me say is stuff I learned from him over the going on 10 years that I've watched him.

knew you sounded familiar ... ;) Keep at it. I dont subscribe so it works for me. I noticed you have disagreed a few times with him, so you're not incompetent alone, either.
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2595. Levi32
Quoting kmanislander:
At least they agree with the decoupling. geesh.


Well the low pressure center won't even be able to exist under 700mb because the terrain is that high. It's an unavoidable thing. It's a miracle Mitch survived it in 1998.
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Quoting Patrap:


Just south of me..but Booming.

NOAA Marine Warning for Lake P


Right bloody well overtop of me here in Covington/Mandeville!
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new map
1010-1000range


and
999-990 range

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Quoting kmanislander:


Landfall by Sunday morning ???.

I'll be back in a while.Off to buy a new pair of glasses !
Lol, I think the NHC is off on that one.
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5 pm Advisory:
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2590. IKE
Thunderstorm here at my house and 72.
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At least they agree with the decoupling. geesh.
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2588. Patrap
Quoting errantlythought:
Swear it just started pouring out of nowhere, Pat. :P Bloody breeze fronts!


Just south of me..but Booming.

NOAA Marine Warning for Lake P
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Quoting Drakoen:


You sound too much like Bastardi... lol!
LOL!
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2586. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


You sound too much like Bastardi... lol!


Proud of it too lol. I've learned so much more from him than I could from anyone else. He understands and shares a lot of things about the earth's weather processes that you never hear about anywhere else. A lot of what you hear me say is stuff I learned from him over the going on 10 years that I've watched him.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2585. IKE
Quoting Levi32:


Interesting that they notice the increased forward speed but say it still has 12 hours before landfall. I don't think so, it's pretty much on the coast.


I agree with you. It's inland.
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Levi, so basically it looks like 05 was the lighting of the fuse so to speak with hurricane season. For that reason we are looking at an upbringing of hurricane season. just great
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Kman got it right, it going to be disaster for those people on west side of that mountain chain.Bad start to a bad season.
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Swear it just started pouring out of nowhere, Pat. :P Bloody breeze fronts!
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Quoting Drakoen:
They still have her off shore go figure


Landfall by Sunday morning ???.

I'll be back in a while.Off to buy a new pair of glasses !
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2580. Patrap
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2579. Levi32
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
200 PM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010

ALTHOUGH VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SOME
EROSION OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
BANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON A
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND
THE TIGHTER BANDING FEATURES NOTED IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/06 KT...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE
SLOW. AGATHA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A NORTHEASTWARD OR
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT LIES
ALONG 12N LATITUDE. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE
GUATEMALAN COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.
AFTER LANDFALL...THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO DECOUPLE FROM THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATION...WITH THE LATTER CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OR THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...TVCN.

THERE IS STILL SOME ROOM FOR SLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE
AGATHA MAKES LANDFALL...BUT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS QUICKLY
CLOSING NOW DUE TO THE FASTER FORWARD SPEED.
AFTER LANDFALL...RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...VERY MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF AGATHA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEM CEASES TO
EXIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND INTERACTION WITH HIGH TERRAIN...
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM AGATHA WILL BE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...AND AS FAR
INLAND AS HONDURAS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 13.9N 92.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 14.1N 91.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 14.5N 91.2W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 31/0600Z 14.9N 90.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
48HR VT 31/1800Z 15.2N 90.8W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN


Interesting that they notice the increased forward speed but say it still has 12 hours before landfall. I don't think so, it's pretty much on the coast.
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Quoting xcool:
MiamiHurricanes09 100% free
Awesome! Do you have a link?
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2577. IKE
LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE
GUATEMALAN COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.


Tomorrow morning? WTH? My eyesight must be bad?
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2576. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


2005 isn't a perfect copy. The PDO was warm that year which is the big difference this year where we have it cold. Cold PDOs tend to support far more La Ninas than El Ninos, which is a product of the SST profile in the Pacific. It is the PDO, which is now starting to turn down into its cold cycle for the next 30 years, that is the main driver. That, coupled with a warm AMO in the Atlantic, always means big hurricane seasons on average in the Atlantic, along with a lot of US landfalls.


You sound too much like Bastardi... lol!
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2575. Patrap
Flash Flood Watch

Statement as of 11:29 AM CDT on May 29, 2010

... Flash Flood Watch in effect until 9 PM CDT this evening...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for a portion of southeast Louisiana...
including the following areas... Assumption... lower Jefferson...
lower Lafourche... lower Plaquemines... lower St. Bernard...
lower Terrebonne... Orleans... St. Charles... St. James... St.
John The Baptist... upper Jefferson... upper Lafourche... upper
Plaquemines... upper St. Bernard and upper Terrebonne.

* Until 9 PM CDT this evening

* a stalled trough of low pressure at the surface over the central
Gulf Coast region... and an upper level low pressure system
moving south through Mississippi... will interact with other
surface wind boundaries to produce scattered thunderstorms with
daytime heating. Many of the thunderstorms will produce very
heavy rainfall especially this afternoon into the early evening
hours across areas south and west of Lake Pontchartrain and near
the southeast Louisiana coast. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches
per hour... and 5 to 6 inches in 2 to 3 hours will be possible
due to very slow movement of the thunderstorms.


* Locally very heavy rainfall over populated and urbanized areas
could quickly lead to widespread street flooding... some severe
making roads impassable and causing flooding of parked and
stalled cars. Rising water could also pose a threat to homes and
businesses in low lying or flood prone areas.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2573. IKE
TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
200 PM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010

ALTHOUGH VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SOME
EROSION OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
BANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON A
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND
THE TIGHTER BANDING FEATURES NOTED IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/06 KT...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE
SLOW. AGATHA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A NORTHEASTWARD OR
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT LIES
ALONG 12N LATITUDE. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE
GUATEMALAN COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL...THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO DECOUPLE FROM THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
CIRCULATION...WITH THE LATTER CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OR THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...TVCN.

THERE IS STILL SOME ROOM FOR SLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE
AGATHA MAKES LANDFALL...BUT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS QUICKLY
CLOSING NOW DUE TO THE FASTER FORWARD SPEED. AFTER LANDFALL...RAPID
WEAKENING OF THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...VERY MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF AGATHA WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEM CEASES TO
EXIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND INTERACTION WITH HIGH TERRAIN...
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM AGATHA WILL BE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...AND AS FAR
INLAND AS HONDURAS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 13.9N 92.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 14.1N 91.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 14.5N 91.2W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 31/0600Z 14.9N 90.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
48HR VT 31/1800Z 15.2N 90.8W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN
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2572. Drakoen
They still have her off shore go figure
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I think the CMC got it right but as usual a little high on the intensity.It looks to be pulled north by the Ull but will ultimately get sent off to the ene.
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2570. xcool
i was rigth moveing to ne haha
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2569. Patrap
Somethings driving the Forward speed..itsa gonna be a faster move now across to somewhere
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2568. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
forecast calls for ne movement ok so been a little fast once on land it will begin to slowly pull n again and eventually nw then loop to the DDC point onshore south of the BOC
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
2567. Levi32
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Levi, then if La Nina is just a passenger along for this crazy ride. What is driving the current pattern, and at the mention of 2005, are we looking at a copy of that setup?


2005 isn't a perfect copy. The PDO was warm that year which is the big difference this year where we have it cold. Cold PDOs tend to support far more La Ninas than El Ninos, which is a product of the SST profile in the Pacific. It is the PDO, which is now starting to turn down into its cold cycle for the next 30 years, that is the main driver. That, coupled with a warm AMO in the Atlantic, always means big hurricane seasons on average in the Atlantic, along with a lot of US landfalls.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2566. IKE
...AGATHA MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD GUATEMALA... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING THE WARNING AREA AND SPREADING INLAND...
2:00 PM PDT Sat May 29
Location: 13.9°N 92.4°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: NE at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1000 mb
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You transfer that onto the ATL side and you drive this blog nuts.
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Quoting Levi32:


I'm not ashamed to admit it....I am greatly influenced by Bastardi. He will always be my favorite Meteorologist, and that is at the expense of my reputation around here, but that won't stop me. I've been saying all winter that this El Nino was reactionary, but JB's post yesterday did enlighten me a little more to the overall global pattern, and gave me a better understanding. I love his videos.

Takes a stand up guy to confirm that. I dont respect you any less for it, knowing who to listen to alot of times makes for better forecasting. No point in repeat science.
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2563. cg2916
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


It was during Katrina. The night Wilma blew up most of us were on another blog.

There were not that many people here during Katrina, and in July 2005 many blog entries have less than 50 comments. Most are from CJNEW, EmmyRose, GetReal, Stormtop, me, IKE, Jedkins01, outrocket, and HurricaneKing. With quite a few others from people who have completely disappeared from the blogs.

What blog were they on during Wilma?
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.
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2561. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Levi32:


La Nina doesn't make it or break it....remember 2005 was neutral. It is the worldwide pattern and distribution of heat that is driving the up-tick in Atlantic activity that we are going to see this year, not La Nina. This ENSO phase has been reactionary to the global pattern, and this La Nina is a product of that pattern, not the driver of it.


But El Nino venting & it's cloud seeding & the change of season brings us La Nina & her lack of clouds over the Arctic...that's helping to quickly warm the Arctic (note ice melt going from average to new low in no time) setting that piece of the tripole in perfect position for..doom, doom, doom, doom.
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2560. Patrap
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
On this side, Pat, that would be a major threat. Shows how little it takes to fire up a storm like Agatha so close to the coast


xcellent obs there.

Its the one that can bite ya..
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Not getting around those mountains.
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gravity wave from outflow causing an increase in tstorm intensity in mobile county. Neat.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=MOB&loop=yes
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2557. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If that is true, Agatha I now in a new steering layer.


If THAT is true, then this thing has a chance of getting in the Caribbean.

IMPORTANT PART

A little while ago, that said Agatha was at 993 MB. About 5 minutes later, new advisory came out, and said it was at 1003 MB. The NHC and ADT don't usually agree.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.