Loop Current Eddy cuts off; oil danger to Keys now greatly reduced

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:24 PM GMT on May 28, 2010

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A major ocean current re-alignment is underway the Gulf of Mexico right now, and the new configuration that is developing greatly reduces the threat of oil entering the Loop Current and affecting the Florida Keys and U.S. East Coast. As I explain in my Loop Current Primer, the Loop Current is an ocean current that transports warm Caribbean water through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico. The current flows northward into the Gulf of Mexico, then loops southeastward just south of the Florida Keys (where it is called the Florida Current), and past the western Bahamas. Here, the waters of the Loop Current flow northward along the U.S. coast and become the Gulf Stream. With current speeds of about 0.8 m/s, the Loop Current is one of the fastest currents in the Atlantic Ocean. Every 6 - 11 months, the top bulge of the Loop Current cuts off, forming a 250-mile diameter circular eddy in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. This clockwise-spinning eddy is filled with warm water from the Loop Current, and is called a Loop Current Eddy. The main body of the Loop Current then takes a fairly direct eastward path from the Yucatan Channel to the Florida Keys.

Over the past two days, surface currents in the Gulf of Mexico have aligned to form a Loop Current Eddy, as seen in the analysis of surface currents done by the U.S. Navy (Figure 1, and see also a 30-day animation of the eddy forming.) It remains to be seen if the deep water currents have followed suit, and a stable Loop Current Eddy cannot exist until the deep water currents also cut off into a clockwise-rotating ring of water at depth. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is out over the Gulf of Mexico today dropping expendable buoys and current probes to determine if a stable Loop Current Eddy has formed. Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecast Service has a nice discussion on the Loop Current Eddy formation.


Figure 1. Comparison of surface currents in the Gulf of Mexico on May 19 (top) and May 27 (bottom) as simulated by the HYCOM model. On May 19, the Loop Current made a large northward loop into the Gulf, and was able to transport oil from the near the spill location southwards through the Keys. By May 27, this loop had cut off, and new oil moving southwards from the spill will now be trapped in the clockwise rotating Loop Current Eddy that is cut off from the Loop Current. Note on the west side of the Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of Texas, there is an old Loop Current Eddy that cut off from the Loop Current in July 2009. This eddy cut off in the same location as this week's eddy, and has drifted west-southwestward at 3 - 5 km per day over the past ten months. Image credit: U.S. Navy.

If the eddy does remain in place, it will greatly reduce the chances of oil making it to Cuba, the Florida Keys, and beyond. Any oil moving southwards from the spill location will now become entrained in the eddy, and will move in a 250 mile-wide clockwise circle in the east-central Gulf of Mexico. A small portion the oil will get shed away from the eddy's periphery and make it into the Loop Current and waters surrounding the eddy, but the concentrations of oil doing so will be small. Keep in mind, though, that during the first 1 - 2 months that a Loop Current Eddy forms, it is common for the eddy to exchange substantial amounts of water with the Loop Current, and in some cases get re-absorbed into the Loop Current. A 1-year animation of the Loop Current shows that the last Loop Current Eddy, which cut off in mid-July 2009, experienced a 2-week period in early August when it re-attached to the Loop Current. A significant portion of any oil entering the eddy during a period of re-attachment will be able to enter the Loop Current and flow past the Keys.

One bad result of the eddy breaking off is that now we have an extra source of heat energy for passing hurricanes during the upcoming hurricane season. Loop Current eddies have high-temperature water that extends to great depth, and hurricanes passing over such eddies often undergo rapid intensification. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita of 2005 both underwent rapid intensification as they passed over warm Loop Current eddies in 2005. The formation of a Loop Current Eddy during hurricane season means that a much greater portion of the Gulf of Mexico has deep, warm water capable of fueling rapid intensification of hurricanes.

Oil spill update
Light offshore northwesterly winds are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Saturday, resulting decreased threats of oil to the Louisiana shore, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These offshore winds may be able to transport oil southwards into the Loop Current Eddy that just formed; a streamer of oil moving southeastward into the Loop Current Eddy is visible in yesterday's NASA MODIS imagery (Figure 2). Winds will shift to onshore out of the south on Saturday night, then shift to southwesterly by Tuesday. The long-range forecast from the GFS model indicates continued southwesterly winds all of next week. If this forecast verifies, we will see our greatest chances yet of significant amounts of oil reaching the beaches of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico taken at 2:55pm EDT Thursday May 27, 2010, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. Thin streaks of oil can be seen moving southeast and then southwest around the eastern side of the new Loop Current Eddy. Image credit: NASA.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Central American disturbance
The Atlantic is currently quiet, with none of our reliable global forecast models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next 6 days. There is an area of disturbed weather (90E) just off the Pacific coast of Mexico that will be a major concern for southern Mexico and much of Central America over the next 3 - 4 days. The disturbance will bring heavy rains to Central America during the weekend, potentially bringing serious flooding rains to portions of Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. NHC is giving the disturbance a high (>60% chance) of the disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on the tropics.


Figure 3. Satellite image of the Central American disturbance 90E this morning.

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Beginning next week, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays, with the first show June 1. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season

I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I'll be back with at least one update over the coming 3-day Memorial Day weekend. Have a great holiday!

Jeff Masters

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WHAT DOES BOC MEAN?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
TFP'S just updated on the track inland, Agatha Floater - Water Vapor Loop


Slows her down in speed track wise dramatically..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2955. Prgal
Quoting JLPR:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
703 PM AST SAT MAY 29 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 PM AST FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CAGUAS...CIDRA...COAMO...CAYEY...COMERIO...AIBONITO...
AGUAS BUENAS...BARRANQUITAS...JUNCOS...GURABO...OROCOVIS...
NARANJITO...SAN LORENZO...VILLALBA...TRUJILLO ALTO...LAS
PIEDRAS...ARROYO...LUQUILLO...PATILLAS...MAUNABO...NAGUABO...
GUAYNABO...CEIBA...CANOVANAS...GUAYAMA...FAJARDO...CAROLINA...
HUMACAO...JUANA DIAZ...SAN JUAN...SALINAS...SANTA ISABEL...RIO
GRANDE...YABUCOA AND VIEQUES

...FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...

AT 654 PM AST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES WEST OF BARRANQUITAS TO
JAUCA...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF COAMO
TO 3 MILES EAST OF SANTA ISABEL...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS
WITH AN INCH OR MORE IN JUST 30 MINUTES...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.


This is no good for me :(
I don't like lighting at night XD


We have had quite an interesting day. Good to see you around!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting leo305:
yikes..

http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/05/29/us.gulf.oil.spill/index.html?hpt=T1&iref=BN1

so top kill is a complete failure.. that really isn't good news..


Get ready for the jellyfish...

They're waiting till mid-August for "relief wells"?! What if those wells get blown over, or worse, get struck by lightning and explode in a hurricane? Or the storm surge brings the spill as well as the new wells onto land?
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
2953. EricSFL
Quoting FIU2010:


Eso a usted no le debe importar, fulano de tal.


I thought you went to the same school as Mr. Ferro and got a BA in Overhypingology.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Yes SSTs and air temperature will be warmer than normal over the tropical Atlantic this summer, but no warmer relative to normal than they already are now. We're not going to be busting +4C above normal SSTs, for example. It's going to stay near where it is, 2-3C above normal at max. That's still very very hot.
Exactly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2950. Levi32
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


But the forecast is also for above-normal temperatures and SSTs. Another point is that the current temperatures are warm enough to support a major hurricane.


Yes SSTs and air temperature will be warmer than normal over the tropical Atlantic this summer, but no warmer relative to normal than they already are now. We're not going to be busting +4C above normal SSTs, for example. It's going to stay near where it is, 2-3C above normal at max. That's still very very hot.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FIU2010:
I do too, but dont you just love their tracking the tropics music, miami, it's awesome
Yeah I like it too, lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting EricSFL:


How old are you?
He's in his early 20s.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2946. EricSFL
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hyping? I have much respect towards Phil Ferro and you should too.


I respect Mr. Ferro as well, but I rather trust David Bernard for the explanation of possible different scenarios.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Agatha has a anticyclone aloft, so it isn't a dry pocket. It's a hot tower, Patrap can further explain those, :).


Wait a minute, do upper-level anticyclones restrict the ability for hurricanes to reach the stratosphere? Is that why the hurricane water-vapour negative feedback is in place?
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
2943. cg2916
Quoting kmanislander:


That is current steering. You need to look at the forecasted steering. From memory a high is supposed to move N in the Western Caribbean which would block any move to the East.

Sorry, gotta run now or my baby backs will burn LOL

Back later ( no pun intended ! )


Oh, that answers my question.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
2942. EricSFL
Quoting FIU2010:
south floridians, make sure to watch the wsvn hurricane special, coming up at 8pm, it'll be worth your time, trust me. besides, phil ferro's hyping is irresistiable, lol.


How old are you?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FIU2010:
south floridians, make sure to watch the wsvn hurricane special, coming up at 8pm, it'll be worth your time, trust me. besides, phil ferro's hyping is irresistiable, lol.
Hyping? I have much respect towards Phil Ferro and you should too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2940. JLPR
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
703 PM AST SAT MAY 29 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 900 PM AST FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING
MUNICIPALITIES
IN PUERTO RICO
BAYAMON...CAGUAS...CIDRA...COAMO...CAYEY...COMERIO...AIBONITO...
AGUAS BUENAS...BARRANQUITAS...JUNCOS...GURABO...OROCOVIS...
NARANJITO...SAN LORENZO...VILLALBA...TRUJILLO ALTO...LAS
PIEDRAS...ARROYO...LUQUILLO...PATILLAS...MAUNABO...NAGUABO...
GUAYNABO...CEIBA...CANOVANAS...GUAYAMA...FAJARDO...CAROLINA...
HUMACAO...JUANA DIAZ...SAN JUAN...SALINAS...SANTA ISABEL...RIO
GRANDE...YABUCOA AND VIEQUES

...FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...

AT 654 PM AST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES WEST OF BARRANQUITAS TO
JAUCA...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF COAMO
TO 3 MILES EAST OF SANTA ISABEL...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS
WITH AN INCH OR MORE IN JUST 30 MINUTES...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ESPECIALLY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.


This is no good for me :(
I don't like lighting at night XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


No way around the Sierra Madre.



Dont talk about my mother like that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I know 2012 is getting close, but... LOL.


Well, who knows, maybe this is some yet-undiscovered seismic negative feedback to global warming.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting Levi32:


But its maximum temperature won't be any higher above normal than it is now, because the pattern is reversing to cloudier and wetter than normal in the Caribbean.


But the forecast is also for above-normal temperatures and SSTs. Another point is that the current temperatures are warm enough to support a major hurricane.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting kmanislander:


That is current steering. You need to look at the forecasted steering. From memory a high is supposed to move N in the Western Caribbean which would block any move to the East.

Sorry, gotta run now or my baby backs will burn LOL

Back later ( no pun intended ! )
LOL. Later Kman.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2935. Patrap
TFP'S just updated on the track inland, Agatha Floater - Water Vapor Loop


Slows her down in speed track wise dramatically..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2934. cg2916
Quoting kmanislander:


Here is the steering map for a system of this strength. Bear in mind also that it will weaken quickly now.

The steering takes it away from the BOC



Why can't this thing follow the steering current and go into the Carib.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
2933. scott39
Quoting Patrap:


The storm has stayed west of the current TFP's..so Look for them to shift west soon
Are they moving any further N?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looking at that graph is why I don't understand why models take it towards the GOM and not towards the Caribbean.


That is current steering. You need to look at the forecasted steering. From memory a high is supposed to move N in the Western Caribbean which would block any move to the East.

Sorry, gotta run now or my baby backs will burn LOL

Back later ( no pun intended ! )
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GEM 12z p130, shows tropical trouble off the Carolinas. 994mb system, in association with the remnants of Agatha. Thats a borderline hurricane... And shear corresponds with the model, SSTs are a bit suspicious though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
September? That's a bit of an exaggeration.

September 29, 2009


May 29, 2010


*And keep in mind that that was in 2009, and we all know 2009 wasn't an impressive year, it even wasn't "average".


For May 29, 2010, try comparing August 29, 2009. Look only at the Caribbean.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
2929. Patrap
Quoting scott39:
Thanks, With it making landfall faster than anticipated, are the projected landfall points correct on land?


The storm has stayed west of the current TFP's..so Look for them to shift west soon
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2928. Drakoen
18z HWRF shows Agatha getting into the extreme Western Caribbean. GFDL has her on the extreme eastern Yucatan Peninsula.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2926. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2925. scott39
Quoting kmanislander:


Here is the steering map for a system of this strength. Bear in mind also that it will weaken quickly now.

The steering takes it away from the BOC

Thanks, With it making landfall faster than anticipated, are the projected landfall points correct on land?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 292338
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM AGATHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
500 PM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010

...AGATHA GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER THE GUATEMALA/MEXICO
BORDER...TORRENTIAL RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 92.1W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM...E OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...ALL OF
GUATEMALA...AND ALL OF EL SALVADOR FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER. THESE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AGATHA WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.1 WEST.
AGATHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...AGATHA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FARTHER INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AGATHA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
PRIMARILY OVER WATER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUATEMALA. THESE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE.

RAINFALL...DESPITE WEAKENING...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF EL SALVADOR...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 30 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF GUATEMALA HAS REPORTED UP TO
14 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS.

STORM SURGE...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF EL SALVADOR HAS REPORTED
THAT LARGE WAVES WERE AFFECTING THE COAST. FLOODING AND LARGE
WAVES CURRENTLY OCCURRING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI


They forgot to include, sorry guys, she's about 12 to 24 hrs early, we'll send a case of Cornona's.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting FIU2010:
KMan, ever been to the Americas?


If you mean North and South America the answer is yes. Mexico,USA,Canada,Brazil

Have not made it to Central America yet
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Agatha Model Plots
Access forbidden !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Yikes...that plume of moistue in eastern Guatemala will be ploughing directly into the erupting volcano, which is already erupting into Guatemala City and in addition the heaviest rain should be over the city right when the COC dissapates.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
Quoting hurrtracker1994:
the forward movement is currently 10mph... do they expect this to continue?
I would say so.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


The volcano in Guatemala and the one in Ecuador erupted both in the same week. Now they're saying that the giant Katla volcano is due to erupt imminently in Iceland.


At this point there is nothing imminent about a Katla eruption. There has been no major seismic activity to indicate this happening. There has been a lot of hype in some media, but it is just that. It's always possible, but there are no signs of anything happening at this time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2916. Patrap
Agatha Model Plots
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the forward movement is currently 10mph... do they expect this to continue?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Here is the steering map for a system of this strength. Bear in mind also that it will weaken quickly now.

The steering takes it away from the BOC

Looking at that graph is why I don't understand why models take it towards the GOM and not towards the Caribbean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


You mean from the Gulf Stream?


Yes, thats a major typo on my befalf... all this oil talk has my head mixing things up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
A couple weeks later the entire Atlantic had a major cool down, it's in that time that the entire Atlantic will be warmer than 2005, if we continue or current trend, of cousre.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
I know ive asked this before, but what is keeping it from going closer to the BOC?


Here is the steering map for a system of this strength. Bear in mind also that it will weaken quickly now.

The steering takes it away from the BOC

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2908. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 292338
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM AGATHA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012010
500 PM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010

...AGATHA GRADUALLY MOVING INLAND OVER THE GUATEMALA/MEXICO
BORDER...TORRENTIAL RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 92.1W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM...E OF TAPACHULA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...ALL OF
GUATEMALA...AND ALL OF EL SALVADOR FROM BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN MEXICO
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER. THESE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AGATHA WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.1 WEST.
AGATHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND ON
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...AGATHA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
FARTHER INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AGATHA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
PRIMARILY OVER WATER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUATEMALA. THESE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE.

RAINFALL...DESPITE WEAKENING...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF EL SALVADOR...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 30 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF GUATEMALA HAS REPORTED UP TO
14 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS.

STORM SURGE...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF EL SALVADOR HAS REPORTED
THAT LARGE WAVES WERE AFFECTING THE COAST. FLOODING AND LARGE
WAVES CURRENTLY OCCURRING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DECREASE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI


It was at 45, 1000, it's weakening. So much for the 65 MPH TS the NHC forecasted earlier. If it's already weakening, this thing will not have time to strengthen enough to get into the Caribbean. Heck, if it's weakening now, the shear in the GOM won't have much more to rip-up.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
2907. Patrap
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.