What would a hurricane do to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:57 PM GMT on May 26, 2010

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Hurricane season is upon us next week, and the Deepwater Horizon blowout is still spewing a geyser of oil into the Gulf of Mexico. With this year's hurricane season likely to be a severe one, with much above average numbers of hurricanes and intense hurricanes, we have the unwholesome prospect of a hurricane churning through the largest accidental oil spill in history. A hurricane has never passed over a sizable oil spill before, so there are a lot of unknowns about what might happen. The closest call came in 1979, after the greatest accidental oil spill in history, the massive Ixtoc I blowout. That disaster dumped 3 million barrels (126 million gallons) of oil into the Southern Gulf of Mexico between June 1979 and March 1980. Category 1 Hurricane Henri passed just north of the main portion of the oil spill on September 16 and 17, generating 15 foot seas and southwest winds of 15 - 25 knots over the spill region on the 16th. Interestingly, the NOAA/AOML report on the spill found that the winds did not blow long enough or strongly enough to control the direction of oil flow, as evidenced by the fact that the wind direction was often 180° to the direction of plume flow. The main impact of the wind was to dilute the oil and weather it, converting it to a thick "mousse".

Oil and beaches
During the Ixtoc spill, prevailing currents circulating clockwise from the blowout carried a 60-mile by 70-mile patch of sheen containing a 300 foot by 500 foot patch of heavy crude 900 miles to the South Texas coast. On August 6, 1979, tarballs from the spill impacted a 17 mile stretch of Texas beach. Mousse patches impacted the shoreline north of Port Mansfield Channel on August 15 and again on August 18. On August 24, mousse impacted shoreline south of Aransas Pass. By August 26, most of North Padre Island was covered with moderate amounts of oil. By September 1, all of the south Texas coast had been impacted by oil. However, Hurricane Henri formed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on September 17 - 18. At the same time, a strong non-tropical low pressure system formed along the Texas coast, bringing gale-force winds and rainfall amounts in excess of ten inches to the coast. The combination of swells from Hurricane Henri and wind-driven waves from the non-tropical low pressure system scoured the oiled beaches of over 90% of their oil (Gundlach et al., 1981). The oil washed over the barrier islands into the estuaries behind them, and much of it sank to the bottom of the ocean. According to NOAA, impacts to the estuaries were minor. However, Payne and McNabb (1984) noted that selected regions of the coast, most of the beached oil was heavily resistant to transport during storms. Oil/sediment mats were ultimately covered by clean sand, but the oil/sediment mats were re-exposed and washed into the lagoon behind the barrier islands one year later when Category 3 Hurricane Allen battered the coast. No transport of the oil/sediment mats from the lagoon bottom was observed in the 3-year period following Hurricane Allen.

So, the Ixtoc blowout experience shows us that if a sandy beach is already fouled by oil, a hurricane can help clean up the mess. However, the situation is different along shores with marshlands, where the many shoreline plants offer crevices and tangled roots for the oil to accumulate in. A hurricane will help scour some of the oil out of marshlands, but the majority of it will probably remain stuck. This is also true of rocky beaches. Rocky shores fouled by the great Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska in 1989 have been pounded by many hurricane-strength storms over the years, but these storms were not able to clean the beaches of oil like Hurricane Henri did for Texas' beaches in 1979.

Transport of oil by hurricanes
Shores that are already fouled by oil will probably benefit from a hurricane, but the oil cleaned off of those shores then becomes someone else's problem. The strong winds and powerful ocean currents that a hurricane's winds drive will bring oil to large stretches of coast that otherwise would not have gotten oil. This is my chief concern regarding a hurricane moving through the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Consider the case of the Exxon Valdez disaster in 1989. The ill-fated tanker split open in Prince William Sound on March 24, and oil spill response crews were initially able to contain the spill behind booms and make good progress removing it. However, two days later, a powerful Gulf of Alaska storm with 70 mph winds roared through, overwhelming the containment booms and distributing the oil along a 90-mile stretch of coast. The oil went on to foul over 400 miles of Alaska coast, a far larger disaster than would have occurred than if the storm had not passed by. Similarly, a hurricane moving through the Gulf of Mexico spill will very likely make the disaster much worse, spreading out the oil over a larger region, and bringing the oil to shores that otherwise might not have seen oil. It is true that the oil will be diluted some by being spread out over a larger area, so some shores will not see a substantial oiling. But overall, a hurricane passing through the oil spill is likely to result in much higher damage to the coast.

I expect that during the peak portion of hurricane season (August - October), the clockwise-rotating eddy that is attempting to cut off from the Loop Current this week will be fully separated from the Loop Current. The separation of this eddy will substantially reduce the possibility that significant amounts of oil will reach the Florida Keys and Southeast U.S. coast, since the Loop Current will be much farther south, flowing more due east towards the Keys from the Yucatan Channel. Oil moving southwards from the spill location due to a hurricane's winds will tend to get trapped in the 250-mile wide eddy, potentially covering most of the surface of the eddy with oil. Thus we might have a 250-mile wide spinning oil slick in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico for days or weeks after a hurricane. This could potentially have a significant warming effect on the Gulf waters, since the oil is dark and will absorb sunlight, and the oil will prevent evaporation from cooling the waters underneath it. Since Loop Current eddies contain a large amount of very warm water that extend to great depth, they often act as high-octane fuel for hurricanes that pass over. The rapid intensification of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita were both aided by the passage of those storms over Loop Current eddies. Thus the warming of the Loop Current Eddy by oil pulled into it by a passing hurricane or tropical storm could lead to explosive intensification of the next hurricane that passes over the eddy.

The Loop Current Eddy will move slowly westwards toward Texas at about 4 miles per day after it fully cuts off. When it reaches the shallow waters near the Texas coast in early 2011, the eddy will turn northwards and gradually dissipate, By then, I expect that the vast majority of the oil in the eddy will have dispersed, sunk, or evaporated.

Storm surge and oil
One of the more unnerving prospects to consider if a hurricane hits the oil spill is what the hurricane's storm surge might do with the oil/dispersant mixture. The foul mix would ride inland on top of the surge, potentially fouling residential areas and hundreds of square miles of sensitive ecosystems with the toxic stew. The impacts of the oil and dispersant on vegetation may be too low to cause significant damage, since the hurricane would dilute the mixture with a large amount of sea water, and wash much of the toxic brew off the vegetation with heavy rain. We do have some limited experience with oil spills during Hurricane Katrina's storm surge to shed light on the subject. Katrina's storm surge caused over 8 million gallons of oil to spill into the storm surge waters. The largest spill occurred when the storm surge hit the Murphy Oil refinery in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana. According to Santella et al. (2010), The refinery was inundated with 12 feet of water, and a partially filled 250,000-barrel above ground storage tank was dislodged and ruptured, releasing 25,100 barrels (1.05 million gallons) of mixed crude oil. Dikes surrounding the oil tanks at the refinery were flooded and breached and oil from the spill covered a residential area of approximately one square mile affecting approximately 1,800 homes. Front-end loaders were needed to remove the oily sediments from the area. A class action lawsuit resulted from the spill, ending in a $330 million settlement with a buy-out of properties closest to the spill and graded compensation in a larger zone. Katrina also caused a 139,000-gallon crude oil leak from a 20-inch pipeline at Shell Nairn Pipeline Company in Port Sulphur, Louisiana. Approximately 10,500 gallons of the spill reached the shoreline and coastal marshes, and only 10,700 gallons were recovered. This release resulted in a $5.5 million class action settlement to nearby property owners (http://www.nairnclaims.com). I haven't been able to find any information on how the marshlands fared after getting oiled by this spill.

Katrina's storm surge also destroyed an oil tank at Chevron's Empire facility, releasing oil into a retention pond in a region surrounded by marshland. Three and half weeks later, Hurricane Rita's storm surge hit the oily mess in the retention pond, washing 4,000 - 8,000 gallons of oil into nearby marshlands, which were heavily or moderately oiled. According to the EPA and Merten et al. (2008), the oiled marshlands were set on fire six weeks after the spill, resulting in 80-90% removal of the oil and contaminated vegetation. The marshland recovered fairly quickly, as seen in aerial photos taken five months after the burn (Figure 1)--though oil still remained in the roots, affecting burrowing crabs and the wildlife that feed on them. So, oiled marshes can recover somewhat from a storm-surge driven oiling, but it is uncertain if burning could be successfully used to restore a 100+ square mile region of marshland oiled by the storm surge from a major hurricane. Another big unknown is how toxic BP's dispersants might be to the vegetation.


Figure 1. Upper left: oiled marshlands as seen on October 10, 2005, near Chevron's Empire facility, after the storm surges of Katrina and Rita. Right: The marshlands on March 16, 2006, five months after the controlled burn. The marshlands had largely recovered. Bottom: the controlled burn in progress (October 12, 2005.) Image credit: Merten, A.A., Henry, C., and J. Michel, 2008, Decision-making process to use in-situ burning to restore an oiled intermediate marsh following hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2008 International Oil Spill Conference.

Wind and oil
The winds from a hurricane hurl ocean sea spray miles inland, often causing major defoliation and tree damage far beyond where the storm surge penetrates. For example, Category 2 Hurricane Bob of 1991 blew sea spray inland 4 miles (7 km) inland over Cape Cod. The salt deposited defoliated nearly all the deciduous trees along the coast. Kerr, 2000 document the case of Category 2 Typhoon Gay of November 23, 1992, which hit the 15-km wide island of Guam with 95 - 100 mph winds. Interaction with another typhoon disrupted Gay's thunderstorm activity, resulting in a nearly rainless typhoon for Guam. As a result, heavy amounts of salt coated the entire island, resulting in nearly complete defoliation. The salt didn't actually kill many plants, and the island re-greened within a year. The Category 3 New England Hurricane of 1938 was able to cause salt damage to trees as far as 45 miles inland, due to wind-blown sea spray. Thus we can anticipate that a hurricane passing over the oil spill will be able to hurl oil and toxic dispersants many miles inland during landfall. In regions where little rain falls, the concentrations of the oil and dispersants may be a problem. Again, we have no experience with this sort of situation, so the potential risks are unknown.

Rain and oil
Hurricanes evaporate huge amounts of water from the ocean and convert it to rain. In general, we do not need to worry about oil dissolving into the rain, since the oil and water don't mix. Furthermore, about 50-70% of the oil that is going to evaporate from the spill does so in the first 12 hours that the oil reaches the surface, so the volatile oil compounds that could potentially get dissolved into rain water won't be around. Hurricanes are known to carry sea salt and microscopic marine plankton hundreds of miles inland, since the strong updrafts of the storm can put these substances high in the troposphere where they can be carried far inland as the hurricane makes landfall. The Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Nora of 1997, whose remnants passed over Southern California, brought traces of sea salt and marine microorganisms to clouds over the central U.S. similarly, we can expect any landfalling hurricanes that pass over the oil spill to pick up traces of Gulf of Mexico crude and transport it hundreds of miles inland. However, I doubt that these traces would be detectable in rainwater except by laboratory analysis, and would not cause any harm to plants or animals.

Lightning and oil
Could a lightning strike from a hurricane ignite oil from the spill, and the hurricane's winds hurl the flaming oil inland, creating a fiery maelstrom of water, wind, and flame? This would make a great scene in a typical bad Hollywood disaster movie, but it's not going to happen with the universe's current laws of physics. Lightning could set an oil slick on fire, in regions where the oil is most dense and very fresh. About 50-70% of the evaporation of oil's most flammable volatile compounds occurs in the first 12 hours after release, so fresh oil is the most likely to ignite. However, the winds of a hurricane are so fierce that any surface oil slick of flaming oil would quickly be disrupted and doused by wave action and sea spray. Heavy rain would further dampen any lightning-caused oil slick fires.

Bringing oil at depth to the surface
Hurricanes act like huge blenders that plow through the ocean, thoroughly mixing surface waters to depths as great as 200 meters (650 feet), and pulling waters from depth to the surface. Thus if sub-surface plumes of oil are located within 200 meters of the surface, a hurricane could potentially bring them to the surface. However, the huge sub-surface plumes of oil found by the research vessel Pelican were at depths of 2300 - 4200 feet, and a hurricane will not affect the ocean circulation at those depths.

Comparisons of the Deepwater Horizon blowout with Exxon Valdez
One footnote to consider when comparing the Deepwater Horizon blowout to the disastrous March 24, 1989 Exxon Valdez spill: the amount of oil spilled in that disaster is usually quoted as 11 million gallons (260,000 barrels.) However, this is the number given by Exxon Mobil, and independent assessments by the State of Alaska came up with a much higher figure--24 to 36 million gallons, with state investigators stressing that the lower number was very unlikely. I'd be inclined to believe Exxon grossly understated the actual severity of the spill, much like BP is attempting to do with the Deepwater Horizon blowout. Steven Wereley, an associate professor at Purdue University, used a computer analysis (particle image velocimetry) to arrive at a rate of 95,000 barrels (4 million gallons) per day since the April 20 blowout, nearly 20 times greater than the 5,000 barrel a day estimate BP and government scientists have been citing. If he is correct, and the State of Alaska's figures on the Exxon Valdez disaster are correct, the Deepwater Horizon blowout so far has spilled five times the oil Exxon Valdez did.

References
Gundlach, E.R., Finkelstein, K.J., and J.L. Sadd, "Impact and Persistence of Ixtoc I Oil on the South Texas Coast", Proceedings: 1981 Oil Spill Conference (Prevention, Behavior, Control, Cleanup) March 2-5, 1981, Atlanta, GA. p 477-485.

Kerr, A.M., 2000, "Defoliation of an island (Guam, Mariana
Archipelago, Western Pacific Ocean) following a saltspray-laden
dry typhoon," Journal of Tropical Ecology 16:895901.

Merten, A.A., Henry, C., and J. Michel, 2008, Decision-making process to use in-situ burning to restore an oiled intermediate marsh following hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2008 International Oil Spill Conference.

Payne, J.R. and D. McNabb, Jr., "Weathering of Petroleum in the Marine Environment", Marine Technology Society Journal 18, 3, Third Quarter 1984.

Santella, N., Steinberg, L.J., and H. Sengul, 2010,Petroleum and Hazardous Material Releases from Industrial Facilities Associated with Hurricane Katrina, Risk Analyis, Volume 30, Issue 4, Pages 635-649, Published Online: 16 Mar 2010

90L
I've been focused more on the oil spill, and will have just a limited discussion of (90L) off the South Carolina coast. The storm has changed little over the past 24 hours, and doesn't have time to develop into a subtropical storm, before an approaching trough of low pressure pulls the system out to sea Thursday and Friday. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 90L a less than 10% chance of developing into a depression or tropical/subtropical storm, and anticipates not writing any more special advisories on 90L. There presently isn't much to be concerned with about this storm, though Bermuda may get more heavy rain and high seas from the storm late this week as it moves out to sea. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on 90L.

Central American disturbance
An area of disturbed weather has developed just off the Pacific coast of Mexico. The disturbance will bring heavy rains to Central America during the remainder of the week, potentially bringing serious flooding rains to portions of Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. There is the potential for disturbed weather accompanying the disturbance to push into the Western Caribbean early next week and pose a threat to develop into a tropical depression. While there is high wind shear over the northern Caribbean, shear should be low enough to allow development should the disturbance stay in the southern reaches of the Caribbean. Any storm that develops in the Caribbean in the coming week would get steered to the northeast and will not pose a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

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PAT--

I know we don't agree on some issues but I think it is great what you are doing to try and get out there and help in your area to save the marsh!

Bravo to you!
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DATE: May 26, 2010 11:25:54 CST

Rear Admiral Landry Approves %u201CTop Kill%u201D Procedure

Key contact numbers

* Report oiled shoreline or request volunteer information: (866) 448-5816
* Submit alternative response technology, services or products: (281) 366-5511
* Submit your vessel for the Vessel of Opportunity Program: (281) 366-5511
* Submit a claim for damages: (800) 440-0858
* Report oiled wildlife: (866) 557-1401



Deepwater Horizon Incident
Joint Information Center

Phone: (985) 902-5231
(985) 902-5240

Federal On-Scene Coordinator Rear Admiral Mary Landry, acting on the validation of government scientists and in consultation with the National Incident Commander Admiral Thad Allen, has granted approval for BP to begin proceeding with their attempt to cap the well using the technique known as the %u201Ctop kill.%u201D

This expedited step provides the final authorization necessary to begin the procedure.

For information about the response effort, visit www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
188. IKE
Weather in the GOM may be delaying the top-kill....per Chad Myers at CNN.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting sarahjola:

so where do you think it will end up? in the caribbean or gulf?


The Caribbean
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Yesterday,,I sent ,or had a e-mail sent to 100 Boom Manufacturers explaining how we needed boom in Grand Isle ASAP.

We've had 6-7 companies call and inquire how much we needed.

I said 14 miles..

Well that was cool, but when I said I needed them donated, well..the salesmen and woman almost fell out their chairs.

They can supply the boom,but at around 100K per mile.

So were trying to get some Clearance to purchase 7 with a BP po #.

No word as of yet from BP to portlight as of,now.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting Drakoen:


Go through the steering layers and the different times and you can see the trough digging into creating those westerlies directing the storm towards the east.
Link

so where do you think it will end up? in the caribbean or gulf?
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Quoting reedzone:


I see the western area dominating, it has more spin to it. This will likely not redevelop in the Caibbean because land will desrupt the circulation. Remember how long it took Arthur in 2008 to form after Almas remnants made it in the Caribbean?
But it did, right ?
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183. XLR8
Quoting CycloneUK:
Is it a plane? Is it an oil spill? No... its a Phytoplankton Bloom!



That is very cool
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


This isn't the government's fault. Please don't start posting irrational government blaming posts. This is a private corporation's fault. This cannot be compared to a natural disaster because it's apples and oranges. Good Lord...


You are exactly right! Government should do what it does best... GOVERN and nothing more.

What happens though is we have Liberals who want government involved in every portion of their life. They blame government for everything that happens (when its Conservatives in office)

What I was saying was mostly satirical...

Natural disasters are not governments fault either last I checked. Nor, bank failures.
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181. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I understand but I was really asking whether that is what this would signify. A chance for something to develop here.


I don't see much developing where you're at based on the models I've seen...so far. That could change.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I see the western area dominating, it has more spin to it. This will likely not redevelop in the Caibbean because land will desrupt the circulation. Remember how long it took Arthur in 2008 to form after Almas remnants made it in the Caribbean?
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7416
Microwave imagery supporting the Windsat position of the low pressure center:

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Quoting asgolfr999:
How can we begin to beat up on Obama for the oil spill...we haven't taken Bush to court yet for singlehandedly blowing up the twin towers and the pentagon.

Priorities people...priorities


You are the first person on my ignore list...POOF!!!!!!!!!!
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Quoting FIU2010:


Hi, Catas, how's everything over there in the boulder state?

He said to expect an increase in their numbers, next week.
wait till noaa numbers come out tomorrow iam expecting them to call for 19 to 21 systems in total and that may even be underdone
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54815
Quoting outofdablue:
Ya know, its just a thought, but my mom once said you point your finger and you get 3 that point back at you. This is everybodies fault ok.
I am a coastal dweller. WE have been through plenty of trying times in the last decade. After the storm passes ya look around and ya pick up the first branch ya see and move it. It will be the same with the oil. I dont really care if I am paid or not to cleanup..I will cleanup It will be what I can do. I have two children and 4 cars in my driveway. Did I always worry about those rigs in the Gulf? Yes. Did I ever do anything about my concerns? No. BP is responsible for this disaster..No doubt..They will be held accountable...NO doubt. Our Business is tourism based. Are we hurting Yes. Am I going to let this ruin me...No. Let us all do what ever we can to get through this. I personally wish the media would get it right. Their lack of ethics in reporting is far more damaging than the oil so far.

i agree!
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Quoting sarahjola:
i can't see the epac storm going to the caribbean. if anything it looks as though it will enter the gulf. i don't think that will happen either. i think it will stay an epac storm. what say you?


Go through the steering layers and the different times and you can see the trough digging into creating those westerlies directing the storm towards the east.
Link
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Is it a plane? Is it an oil spill? No... its a Phytoplankton Bloom!

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173. unf97
Good day everyone!
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Quoting catastropheadjuster:


well what did he say?


Hi, Catas, how's everything over there in the boulder state?

He said to expect an increase in their numbers, next week.
.."That just Bites"..

Dr. Jeff Masters excerpt from the Spuds McKenzie show on WWL.com Radio NOLA Monday.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
SSD floater on 90E showing convection firing over the center:

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Quoting FIU2010:
guys, Dr. Gray just spoke to a Local 10 news reporter down here, and, oh boy.


well what did he say?
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54815
Ya know, its just a thought, but my mom once said you point your finger and you get 3 that point back at you. This is everybodies fault ok.
I am a coastal dweller. WE have been through plenty of trying times in the last decade. After the storm passes ya look around and ya pick up the first branch ya see and move it. It will be the same with the oil. I dont really care if I am paid or not to cleanup..I will cleanup It will be what I can do. I have two children and 4 cars in my driveway. Did I always worry about those rigs in the Gulf? Yes. Did I ever do anything about my concerns? No. BP is responsible for this disaster..No doubt..They will be held accountable...NO doubt. Our Business is tourism based. Are we hurting Yes. Am I going to let this ruin me...No. Let us all do what ever we can to get through this. I personally wish the media would get it right. Their lack of ethics in reporting is far more damaging than the oil so far.
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i can't see the epac storm going to the caribbean. if anything it looks as though it will enter the gulf. i don't think that will happen either. i think it will stay an epac storm. what say you?
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Quoting Jeff9641:


That's funny becuase I'm right more than wrong. Get it straight!

I'm with you on this jeff, you are and i have been watching. Besides there is nothing wrong with disagreeing with someone no matter who it is. my 2 cents. and the season hasnt started yet.
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guys, Dr. Gray just spoke to a Local 10 news reporter down here, and, oh boy.
Quoting Drakoen:


According to the Windsat pass it has done so. I'll wait for an ASCAT pass to be even more confident about that.


Good call on waiting for ASCAT, I don't have much confidence in Windsat on cyclones.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
With an extreme hurricane season forecast, one would expect the action to start up here sooner or later.

However, the latter is fine with me. It's going to be one big sloppy mess in the GOM, Keys and up the East Coast at the end of the season.


And I'm surely not looking forward to that.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting belizeit:
Whith this wind sat people could start to argue already that it is a tropical depression


One 35 knot wind vector and a couple of 30 knot wind vectors. Just needs some more organization.
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With an extreme hurricane season forecast, one would expect the action to start up here sooner or later.

However, the latter is fine with me. It's going to be one big sloppy mess in the GOM, Keys and up the East Coast at the end of the season.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Fears are growing that the Katla volcano in Iceland could soon erupt after volcanic activity at the site increased by over 200% in recent days.

Seismic readings of the volcano indicate the tremors around the area have increased substantially.

Four earthquakes were detected near Katla during a 12-hour period on May 21st, more than at any other time since the Eyjafjallajokull volcanic eruptions first occurred in March.

Three earthquakes at the Katla Volcano were reported by the Disaster and Emergency website Hisz.rsoe.hu on Sunday evening. The tremors may have been due to ice movements within Mýrdalsjökull glacier or magma movement under the volcano.
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Quoting IKE:


Thanks, but I'm no expert. That's from the HPC...they're experts. Seems believable.
I understand but I was really asking whether that is what this would signify. A chance for something to develop here.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Windsat pass:

Whith this wind sat people could start to argue already that it is a tropical depression
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156. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN
TROPICAL PACIFIC NE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN TO NEAR W JAMAICA
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU AS IT DRIFTS N ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN...THEN WILL EXPAND NE TO THE MONA PASSAGE BY LATE
FRI...AND PERSIST THROUGH SUN.

So maybe it will produce something in the western Caribbean. I would appreciate your opinion as you seem far more knowledgable about weather and it's patterns etc. than I am. TIA


Thanks, but I'm no expert. That's from the HPC...they're experts. Seems believable.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting reedzone:
Just looked at 90E, it is VERY disorganized and probably wont make it to TD today. The big blow up of storms you thought was the main attraction of the invest faded and a new blow up is forming where the originaly low was at. It just shows that this is a convective mess, nothing near TD yet. I give it a 20% to form by tonight. 90L seems to be popping up convection near the center, but that is also disorganized, yet it finally has a dominant low instead of many swirls.

This is looking more organized by the day.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15961
Quoting lickitysplit:
Just as with the current economic situation, the BP mess is a making of the GOP and the Bush Admin. Lets not forget that. It was the Bushies who removed restrictions and gave the 'categorical exclusions' that contributed to this disaster. Has the current admin responded appropriately? No. But after listening to all the conservatives crying "drill, baby, drill" and after seeing Reagan end Carter's attempt and getting us off of oil....the idea that this mess is at the feet of the Obama administration is categorically absurd.

well the liberals don't want wind energy,coal,oil, water,nuclear. so what do they want us to use for electricity. it has even been said that if we stop all cars,trucks,planes,and all live in tents and burn nothing in America that it would do little to nothing to the c02 so called problem. when are the libs. going to stop blaming bush for everything? i live in Louisiana and i still say drill baby drill. i fish in these waters and i have family who do that for a living, and we all still say drill baby drill. and as for obama's administration they have done nothing but what we are all doing. they are sitting back and watching. obama said no more permits, and guess what? 19 permits were approved after the spill happened and after he said no more permits would be approved.obama wants the oil as much as bp does.i know i am probably alone on this site in this issue, and i know i will hear "no politics on this site please" but i am tired of hearing the same crap over and over. bush is gone obama is in. its obama's responsibility now. he won't even take the time to honor our military on memorial day. guess who did? BUSH!!! i didn't like alot of the things bush did either, but i don't like anything obama is doing. but i work and pay taxes and have family and friends in the military. god bless our troops. just to let you know our troops are very disappointed in obama's decision do go to Chicago on vacation instead of honoring our military on memorial day.and the Louisiana people are very angry that he is taking a vacation instead of dealing with the oil spill. vacation during a national disaster. the libs would have torn a republican apart for that. this new wonderful govt. is now threatening to arrest our local officials and homeland security for doing what needs to be done to stop the oil from entering our marshlands. now i will go back to weather.
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Quoting Patrap:


SSTs are not even 26C in the 90L area..

pat its like beating your head against the wall some just don't get it friend
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54815
Quoting IKE:
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
1130 AM EDT WED MAY 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRES CIRCULATION COVERING MUCH OF SW N
ATLC WITH CENTER NEAR 31N76.5W 1006 MB THIS MORNING WILL MEANDER
THIS AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY E-SE TONIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT...THEN BE FORCED SLOWLY S AND WEAKEN TO NEAR 28N68W BY
SAT MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SINKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE N.
THE LOW WILL DRAG A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS THROUGH THE BAHAMAS
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY THE LATTER PART
OF THE PERIOD.

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN
TROPICAL PACIFIC NE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN TO NEAR W JAMAICA
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU AS IT DRIFTS N ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE
CARIBBEAN...THEN WILL EXPAND NE TO THE MONA PASSAGE BY LATE
FRI...AND PERSIST THROUGH SUN.

So maybe it will produce something in the western Caribbean. I would appreciate your opinion as you seem far more knowledgable about weather and it's patterns etc. than I am. TIA
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Quoting Drakoen:
Windsat pass:



A well defined spin there, too bad it didnt catch the other possible spin to the east. It seems like the western spin wants to dominate.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7416
Quoting belizeit:
One thing that will help this sytem is the boiling sea temps


SSTs are not even 26C in the 90L area..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
149. IKE
72 hour GFS...low in the east-PAC...Caribbean and northern GOM....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting reedzone:


Which is why I said it was disorganized, it needs to establish one dominant low, then organization can get going, possibly fast, but land intraction will stop rapid strengthening in my opinion. I dont normally track Eastern Pacific storms, so I'm probably wrong lol..


According to the Windsat pass it has done so. I'll wait for an ASCAT pass to be even more confident about that.
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Quoting reedzone:
Just looked at 90E, it is VERY disorganized and probably wont make it to TD today. The big blow up of storms you thought was the main attraction of the invest faded and a new blow up is forming where the originaly low was at. It just shows that this is a convective mess, nothing near TD yet. I give it a 20% to form by tonight. 90L seems to be popping up convection near the center, but that is also disorganized, yet it finally has a dominant low instead of many swirls.
One thing that will help this sytem is the boiling sea temps
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Quoting Drakoen:


It is not very disorganized. I can see two distinguished centers not many low level swirls as observed with 90L. This thing still needs to sort itself out but whatever forms appears likely to head eastward.


Which is why I said it was disorganized, it needs to establish one dominant low, then organization can get going, possibly fast, but land intraction will stop rapid strengthening in my opinion. I dont normally track Eastern Pacific storms, so I'm probably wrong lol..
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7416
i think i'll have to tune out for today. some of the comments you guys are making are unbelievable and wrong.

YOU CAN"T COMPARE ONE DISASTER TO ANOTHER IT DOESN"T WORK THAT WAY!
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1676
Animation: Gulf of Mexico oil spill growth and movement


By From the Times-Picayune


By Dan Swenson

This animation of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill was created using actual overflight information and forecast models from the NOAA and Unified Command.

The red dot is the location of the Deepwater Horizon oil well, which exploded on April 20, releasing oil into the Gulf near the Louisiana coast that has yet to be contained. Eleven rig workers are missing and are presumed to have died in the explosion.

The animation begins Aprill 22, the day the first image of the spill via flyover was released.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Windsat pass:

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142. IKE
In the...does it really matter section...it looks to me like 90L in the Atlantic has started moving a little east.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
The western low which is being tracked by the NHC is showing signs of equatorward and poleward banding.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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