What would a hurricane do to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:57 PM GMT on May 26, 2010

Share this Blog
8
+

Hurricane season is upon us next week, and the Deepwater Horizon blowout is still spewing a geyser of oil into the Gulf of Mexico. With this year's hurricane season likely to be a severe one, with much above average numbers of hurricanes and intense hurricanes, we have the unwholesome prospect of a hurricane churning through the largest accidental oil spill in history. A hurricane has never passed over a sizable oil spill before, so there are a lot of unknowns about what might happen. The closest call came in 1979, after the greatest accidental oil spill in history, the massive Ixtoc I blowout. That disaster dumped 3 million barrels (126 million gallons) of oil into the Southern Gulf of Mexico between June 1979 and March 1980. Category 1 Hurricane Henri passed just north of the main portion of the oil spill on September 16 and 17, generating 15 foot seas and southwest winds of 15 - 25 knots over the spill region on the 16th. Interestingly, the NOAA/AOML report on the spill found that the winds did not blow long enough or strongly enough to control the direction of oil flow, as evidenced by the fact that the wind direction was often 180° to the direction of plume flow. The main impact of the wind was to dilute the oil and weather it, converting it to a thick "mousse".

Oil and beaches
During the Ixtoc spill, prevailing currents circulating clockwise from the blowout carried a 60-mile by 70-mile patch of sheen containing a 300 foot by 500 foot patch of heavy crude 900 miles to the South Texas coast. On August 6, 1979, tarballs from the spill impacted a 17 mile stretch of Texas beach. Mousse patches impacted the shoreline north of Port Mansfield Channel on August 15 and again on August 18. On August 24, mousse impacted shoreline south of Aransas Pass. By August 26, most of North Padre Island was covered with moderate amounts of oil. By September 1, all of the south Texas coast had been impacted by oil. However, Hurricane Henri formed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on September 17 - 18. At the same time, a strong non-tropical low pressure system formed along the Texas coast, bringing gale-force winds and rainfall amounts in excess of ten inches to the coast. The combination of swells from Hurricane Henri and wind-driven waves from the non-tropical low pressure system scoured the oiled beaches of over 90% of their oil (Gundlach et al., 1981). The oil washed over the barrier islands into the estuaries behind them, and much of it sank to the bottom of the ocean. According to NOAA, impacts to the estuaries were minor. However, Payne and McNabb (1984) noted that selected regions of the coast, most of the beached oil was heavily resistant to transport during storms. Oil/sediment mats were ultimately covered by clean sand, but the oil/sediment mats were re-exposed and washed into the lagoon behind the barrier islands one year later when Category 3 Hurricane Allen battered the coast. No transport of the oil/sediment mats from the lagoon bottom was observed in the 3-year period following Hurricane Allen.

So, the Ixtoc blowout experience shows us that if a sandy beach is already fouled by oil, a hurricane can help clean up the mess. However, the situation is different along shores with marshlands, where the many shoreline plants offer crevices and tangled roots for the oil to accumulate in. A hurricane will help scour some of the oil out of marshlands, but the majority of it will probably remain stuck. This is also true of rocky beaches. Rocky shores fouled by the great Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska in 1989 have been pounded by many hurricane-strength storms over the years, but these storms were not able to clean the beaches of oil like Hurricane Henri did for Texas' beaches in 1979.

Transport of oil by hurricanes
Shores that are already fouled by oil will probably benefit from a hurricane, but the oil cleaned off of those shores then becomes someone else's problem. The strong winds and powerful ocean currents that a hurricane's winds drive will bring oil to large stretches of coast that otherwise would not have gotten oil. This is my chief concern regarding a hurricane moving through the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Consider the case of the Exxon Valdez disaster in 1989. The ill-fated tanker split open in Prince William Sound on March 24, and oil spill response crews were initially able to contain the spill behind booms and make good progress removing it. However, two days later, a powerful Gulf of Alaska storm with 70 mph winds roared through, overwhelming the containment booms and distributing the oil along a 90-mile stretch of coast. The oil went on to foul over 400 miles of Alaska coast, a far larger disaster than would have occurred than if the storm had not passed by. Similarly, a hurricane moving through the Gulf of Mexico spill will very likely make the disaster much worse, spreading out the oil over a larger region, and bringing the oil to shores that otherwise might not have seen oil. It is true that the oil will be diluted some by being spread out over a larger area, so some shores will not see a substantial oiling. But overall, a hurricane passing through the oil spill is likely to result in much higher damage to the coast.

I expect that during the peak portion of hurricane season (August - October), the clockwise-rotating eddy that is attempting to cut off from the Loop Current this week will be fully separated from the Loop Current. The separation of this eddy will substantially reduce the possibility that significant amounts of oil will reach the Florida Keys and Southeast U.S. coast, since the Loop Current will be much farther south, flowing more due east towards the Keys from the Yucatan Channel. Oil moving southwards from the spill location due to a hurricane's winds will tend to get trapped in the 250-mile wide eddy, potentially covering most of the surface of the eddy with oil. Thus we might have a 250-mile wide spinning oil slick in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico for days or weeks after a hurricane. This could potentially have a significant warming effect on the Gulf waters, since the oil is dark and will absorb sunlight, and the oil will prevent evaporation from cooling the waters underneath it. Since Loop Current eddies contain a large amount of very warm water that extend to great depth, they often act as high-octane fuel for hurricanes that pass over. The rapid intensification of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita were both aided by the passage of those storms over Loop Current eddies. Thus the warming of the Loop Current Eddy by oil pulled into it by a passing hurricane or tropical storm could lead to explosive intensification of the next hurricane that passes over the eddy.

The Loop Current Eddy will move slowly westwards toward Texas at about 4 miles per day after it fully cuts off. When it reaches the shallow waters near the Texas coast in early 2011, the eddy will turn northwards and gradually dissipate, By then, I expect that the vast majority of the oil in the eddy will have dispersed, sunk, or evaporated.

Storm surge and oil
One of the more unnerving prospects to consider if a hurricane hits the oil spill is what the hurricane's storm surge might do with the oil/dispersant mixture. The foul mix would ride inland on top of the surge, potentially fouling residential areas and hundreds of square miles of sensitive ecosystems with the toxic stew. The impacts of the oil and dispersant on vegetation may be too low to cause significant damage, since the hurricane would dilute the mixture with a large amount of sea water, and wash much of the toxic brew off the vegetation with heavy rain. We do have some limited experience with oil spills during Hurricane Katrina's storm surge to shed light on the subject. Katrina's storm surge caused over 8 million gallons of oil to spill into the storm surge waters. The largest spill occurred when the storm surge hit the Murphy Oil refinery in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana. According to Santella et al. (2010), The refinery was inundated with 12 feet of water, and a partially filled 250,000-barrel above ground storage tank was dislodged and ruptured, releasing 25,100 barrels (1.05 million gallons) of mixed crude oil. Dikes surrounding the oil tanks at the refinery were flooded and breached and oil from the spill covered a residential area of approximately one square mile affecting approximately 1,800 homes. Front-end loaders were needed to remove the oily sediments from the area. A class action lawsuit resulted from the spill, ending in a $330 million settlement with a buy-out of properties closest to the spill and graded compensation in a larger zone. Katrina also caused a 139,000-gallon crude oil leak from a 20-inch pipeline at Shell Nairn Pipeline Company in Port Sulphur, Louisiana. Approximately 10,500 gallons of the spill reached the shoreline and coastal marshes, and only 10,700 gallons were recovered. This release resulted in a $5.5 million class action settlement to nearby property owners (http://www.nairnclaims.com). I haven't been able to find any information on how the marshlands fared after getting oiled by this spill.

Katrina's storm surge also destroyed an oil tank at Chevron's Empire facility, releasing oil into a retention pond in a region surrounded by marshland. Three and half weeks later, Hurricane Rita's storm surge hit the oily mess in the retention pond, washing 4,000 - 8,000 gallons of oil into nearby marshlands, which were heavily or moderately oiled. According to the EPA and Merten et al. (2008), the oiled marshlands were set on fire six weeks after the spill, resulting in 80-90% removal of the oil and contaminated vegetation. The marshland recovered fairly quickly, as seen in aerial photos taken five months after the burn (Figure 1)--though oil still remained in the roots, affecting burrowing crabs and the wildlife that feed on them. So, oiled marshes can recover somewhat from a storm-surge driven oiling, but it is uncertain if burning could be successfully used to restore a 100+ square mile region of marshland oiled by the storm surge from a major hurricane. Another big unknown is how toxic BP's dispersants might be to the vegetation.


Figure 1. Upper left: oiled marshlands as seen on October 10, 2005, near Chevron's Empire facility, after the storm surges of Katrina and Rita. Right: The marshlands on March 16, 2006, five months after the controlled burn. The marshlands had largely recovered. Bottom: the controlled burn in progress (October 12, 2005.) Image credit: Merten, A.A., Henry, C., and J. Michel, 2008, Decision-making process to use in-situ burning to restore an oiled intermediate marsh following hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2008 International Oil Spill Conference.

Wind and oil
The winds from a hurricane hurl ocean sea spray miles inland, often causing major defoliation and tree damage far beyond where the storm surge penetrates. For example, Category 2 Hurricane Bob of 1991 blew sea spray inland 4 miles (7 km) inland over Cape Cod. The salt deposited defoliated nearly all the deciduous trees along the coast. Kerr, 2000 document the case of Category 2 Typhoon Gay of November 23, 1992, which hit the 15-km wide island of Guam with 95 - 100 mph winds. Interaction with another typhoon disrupted Gay's thunderstorm activity, resulting in a nearly rainless typhoon for Guam. As a result, heavy amounts of salt coated the entire island, resulting in nearly complete defoliation. The salt didn't actually kill many plants, and the island re-greened within a year. The Category 3 New England Hurricane of 1938 was able to cause salt damage to trees as far as 45 miles inland, due to wind-blown sea spray. Thus we can anticipate that a hurricane passing over the oil spill will be able to hurl oil and toxic dispersants many miles inland during landfall. In regions where little rain falls, the concentrations of the oil and dispersants may be a problem. Again, we have no experience with this sort of situation, so the potential risks are unknown.

Rain and oil
Hurricanes evaporate huge amounts of water from the ocean and convert it to rain. In general, we do not need to worry about oil dissolving into the rain, since the oil and water don't mix. Furthermore, about 50-70% of the oil that is going to evaporate from the spill does so in the first 12 hours that the oil reaches the surface, so the volatile oil compounds that could potentially get dissolved into rain water won't be around. Hurricanes are known to carry sea salt and microscopic marine plankton hundreds of miles inland, since the strong updrafts of the storm can put these substances high in the troposphere where they can be carried far inland as the hurricane makes landfall. The Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Nora of 1997, whose remnants passed over Southern California, brought traces of sea salt and marine microorganisms to clouds over the central U.S. similarly, we can expect any landfalling hurricanes that pass over the oil spill to pick up traces of Gulf of Mexico crude and transport it hundreds of miles inland. However, I doubt that these traces would be detectable in rainwater except by laboratory analysis, and would not cause any harm to plants or animals.

Lightning and oil
Could a lightning strike from a hurricane ignite oil from the spill, and the hurricane's winds hurl the flaming oil inland, creating a fiery maelstrom of water, wind, and flame? This would make a great scene in a typical bad Hollywood disaster movie, but it's not going to happen with the universe's current laws of physics. Lightning could set an oil slick on fire, in regions where the oil is most dense and very fresh. About 50-70% of the evaporation of oil's most flammable volatile compounds occurs in the first 12 hours after release, so fresh oil is the most likely to ignite. However, the winds of a hurricane are so fierce that any surface oil slick of flaming oil would quickly be disrupted and doused by wave action and sea spray. Heavy rain would further dampen any lightning-caused oil slick fires.

Bringing oil at depth to the surface
Hurricanes act like huge blenders that plow through the ocean, thoroughly mixing surface waters to depths as great as 200 meters (650 feet), and pulling waters from depth to the surface. Thus if sub-surface plumes of oil are located within 200 meters of the surface, a hurricane could potentially bring them to the surface. However, the huge sub-surface plumes of oil found by the research vessel Pelican were at depths of 2300 - 4200 feet, and a hurricane will not affect the ocean circulation at those depths.

Comparisons of the Deepwater Horizon blowout with Exxon Valdez
One footnote to consider when comparing the Deepwater Horizon blowout to the disastrous March 24, 1989 Exxon Valdez spill: the amount of oil spilled in that disaster is usually quoted as 11 million gallons (260,000 barrels.) However, this is the number given by Exxon Mobil, and independent assessments by the State of Alaska came up with a much higher figure--24 to 36 million gallons, with state investigators stressing that the lower number was very unlikely. I'd be inclined to believe Exxon grossly understated the actual severity of the spill, much like BP is attempting to do with the Deepwater Horizon blowout. Steven Wereley, an associate professor at Purdue University, used a computer analysis (particle image velocimetry) to arrive at a rate of 95,000 barrels (4 million gallons) per day since the April 20 blowout, nearly 20 times greater than the 5,000 barrel a day estimate BP and government scientists have been citing. If he is correct, and the State of Alaska's figures on the Exxon Valdez disaster are correct, the Deepwater Horizon blowout so far has spilled five times the oil Exxon Valdez did.

References
Gundlach, E.R., Finkelstein, K.J., and J.L. Sadd, "Impact and Persistence of Ixtoc I Oil on the South Texas Coast", Proceedings: 1981 Oil Spill Conference (Prevention, Behavior, Control, Cleanup) March 2-5, 1981, Atlanta, GA. p 477-485.

Kerr, A.M., 2000, "Defoliation of an island (Guam, Mariana
Archipelago, Western Pacific Ocean) following a saltspray-laden
dry typhoon," Journal of Tropical Ecology 16:895901.

Merten, A.A., Henry, C., and J. Michel, 2008, Decision-making process to use in-situ burning to restore an oiled intermediate marsh following hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2008 International Oil Spill Conference.

Payne, J.R. and D. McNabb, Jr., "Weathering of Petroleum in the Marine Environment", Marine Technology Society Journal 18, 3, Third Quarter 1984.

Santella, N., Steinberg, L.J., and H. Sengul, 2010,Petroleum and Hazardous Material Releases from Industrial Facilities Associated with Hurricane Katrina, Risk Analyis, Volume 30, Issue 4, Pages 635-649, Published Online: 16 Mar 2010

90L
I've been focused more on the oil spill, and will have just a limited discussion of (90L) off the South Carolina coast. The storm has changed little over the past 24 hours, and doesn't have time to develop into a subtropical storm, before an approaching trough of low pressure pulls the system out to sea Thursday and Friday. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 90L a less than 10% chance of developing into a depression or tropical/subtropical storm, and anticipates not writing any more special advisories on 90L. There presently isn't much to be concerned with about this storm, though Bermuda may get more heavy rain and high seas from the storm late this week as it moves out to sea. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on 90L.

Central American disturbance
An area of disturbed weather has developed just off the Pacific coast of Mexico. The disturbance will bring heavy rains to Central America during the remainder of the week, potentially bringing serious flooding rains to portions of Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. There is the potential for disturbed weather accompanying the disturbance to push into the Western Caribbean early next week and pose a threat to develop into a tropical depression. While there is high wind shear over the northern Caribbean, shear should be low enough to allow development should the disturbance stay in the southern reaches of the Caribbean. Any storm that develops in the Caribbean in the coming week would get steered to the northeast and will not pose a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 591 - 541

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45Blog Index

I see that 90L is pretty much flat-lining.

Cold dry air just keeps on getting pumped into the circulation shutting any convection attempts down.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cg2916:


You can see it spinning! Come on, NHC!


I see water spinning every time I flush, should the NHC name that too?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
pretty jellyfish looking things swimming around down there near the BOP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It is amazing how the NHC thinks for alot of people on this blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
587. xcool
lmao
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
How is it subtropical now? What characteristics does it meet?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Subtropical Low 90L looks cool on the visible, all it needs is convection but dry air is too strong and is limiting much convection to form.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Whether it is sub-tropical or non-tropical, there is not enough sustained convection for it to be named anyway


agree.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
456,here it comes towards us. Flash Flood Watch thru Saturday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
327 PM AST WED MAY 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A BROAD TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC...TO
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND PUERTO RICO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN LINGER ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL CREATE A
FAIRLY LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS SUPPORTED BY A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
THE WEST ATLANTIC...AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE TROUGH TO SWING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND MAINTAIN
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL ROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN EXTENSIVE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD...THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE UNFAVORABLE MID TO TO UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS...AND THE INFLUX OF COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE...WILL MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF
TWO INCHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY ACTIVE WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO STARTING ON THURSDAY...PEAKING
ACROSS THE ISLAND ON FRIDAY...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN HEAVY RAINFALL CAN THEN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THESE ISLANDS. THE EXPECTED SCENARIO AND WARM
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL RESULT IN FREQUENT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER
FLOODING...AND INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS MUDSLIDES IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. FOR THIS REASON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...BEGINNING 6 AM AST ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THOROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO PRECEDING THIS
LARGER EVENT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO
FLASH FLOOD WATCH BULLETIN FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDS AND TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL THE PR TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST AND
TISX. PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS TKPK AND TNCM. LLVL
WIND
FLOW WILL REMAIN SE AT 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH 26/00Z...BEFORE
BECOMING E THROUGH 27/14Z...WITH A RETURN TO SE WIND FLOW AFT
27/14Z.



Stay safe over there...remember turn around, don't drown.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
Nontropical invest 90L:


I am with you Drak...I got no idea where the subtropical signs are. Yes it is a low. Yes i has an UUL. Great. So does an Extratropical low. The center is not warmer so there goes warm core transition. Convection not a lot of near the center. Strongest wind gradident is more than 30 miles from the center. I am not seeing it. I wish we could just move onto 90E however I respect the fact that everyone is allowed their opinion. Just funny that some say it def is subtropical when the ture experts and many others say it isnt. Always going to be two sides to the story though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
Nontropical invest 90L:

Sorry but I got to say that that just looks terrible on satellite.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:


Hey buddy I just heard that 90L is going to head across Florida in a few days. Is this true and are their models supporting this. I thought this was going out to sea. Has something changed?


90L is currently moving ene, its motion does not even support that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:


Hey buddy I just heard that 90L is going to head across Florida in a few days. Is this true and are their models supporting this. I thought this was going out to sea. Has something changed?


I can hear your wishing from the other side of the state lol

90L is moving away from the coast
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i wonder if the bp thing will end up like the moon landing when people said it was a fake video :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Whether it is sub-tropical or non-tropical, there is not enough sustained convection for it to be named anyway

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:


You can see it spinning! Come on, NHC!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Nontropical invest 90L:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think the 90E COC is around 13N/90-91W, further east than what's on the model map, just my opinion , I think the COC is slowly approaching the Honduran/ Guatemala border and if it holds together will skirt southern Belize and emerge into the Gulf of Honduras and move ENE through the NW Caribbean, just my opinion of course.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
NHC are the experts, but even experts can be wrong. The maps/graphs show the facts as Levi and Weather456 pointed out, 90L is clearly a Subtropical Low.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
570. xcool
oh like 2009 invests yeah...
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Weather456:


The NHC more or less responds to emails.


They kindly responded to mine when I pointed out to them that the 1928 San Felipe/Great Okeechobee Hurricane had two different tracks according to their own website.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
90L looks better than about 80% of the invests last season
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
566. xcool
Hurricanes101 ''I just have to laughing at poor 90L......
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting shoreacres:
Oceaneering video portal - multiscreen, occasional commentary.

I don't know where this is from - Oceaneering or BP command. You can go full screen and listen.


Much better than what I have been looking at for myself as well..

Your moniker would not be in reference to Shoreacres, TX would it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stillwaiting:




just ask'n,I thought all mets would be interested in wx that could effect the US,once again not tryn to disrespect,just wondering????


If you are forecasting for a different country all day, you can care less about what is happening here. Plus some folks have a high interesting in different types of weather. Me, I like tracking all tropical events and can care less about tornado outbreaks. Others watch big tornado outbreaks and can care less about hurricanes. SOme people live for lake effect snow events. Me, I live in the south so snow events dont really get me too exicted.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:


There you have it.


Were not you the one had 90L becoming a warm seclusion or something like that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
lol noo more 90l


It is still a classified invest
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:


First off I said they came by to look at it with me. Doesnt mean it was the first time they looked at it. You know, have a conversation about it. Second off we teach and have regions to be resposible for so if it isnt happening in our region we dont have to time look everywhere else. When we get off work then we spend time with our familes. Not everyone is interested in a weak low off the east coast.




just ask'n,I thought all mets would be interested in wx that could effect the US,once again not tryn to disrespect,just wondering????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
560. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
559. xcool
lol noo more 90l
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Drakoen:


There you have it.
Yup. Good to see that they respond to email's.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
456,here it comes towards us. Flash Flood Watch thru Saturday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
327 PM AST WED MAY 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A BROAD TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC...TO
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE AND PUERTO RICO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN LINGER ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL CREATE A
FAIRLY LIGHT BUT PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS IS SUPPORTED BY A LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
THE WEST ATLANTIC...AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE TROUGH TO SWING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND MAINTAIN
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL ROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...AN EXTENSIVE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA...WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD...THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE UNFAVORABLE MID TO TO UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS...AND THE INFLUX OF COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE...WILL MAINTAIN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF
TWO INCHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY ACTIVE WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IS EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO STARTING ON THURSDAY...PEAKING
ACROSS THE ISLAND ON FRIDAY...THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WHEN HEAVY RAINFALL CAN THEN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THESE ISLANDS. THE EXPECTED SCENARIO AND WARM
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL RESULT IN FREQUENT PERIODS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL...AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS RIVER
FLOODING...AND INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS MUDSLIDES IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. FOR THIS REASON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...BEGINNING 6 AM AST ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THOROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING...
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO PRECEDING THIS
LARGER EVENT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO
FLASH FLOOD WATCH BULLETIN FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDS AND TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL THE PR TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TIST AND
TISX. PREVAILING VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS TKPK AND TNCM. LLVL
WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN SE AT 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH 26/00Z...BEFORE
BECOMING E THROUGH 27/14Z...WITH A RETURN TO SE WIND FLOW AFT
27/14Z.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
556. xcool
JOE LIKE global warming TOO MUCH.;
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting FIU2010:



Doubt it.


The NHC more or less responds to emails.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The NHC responded!

This was my email to them:

" I have been following for quite some time now what is ex investigation 90L. I would like to know what your opinions on it are and if you think that ex-90L is currently nontropical or subtropical. Thanks for any input.

Have a great day!"

This is their response:

"It is non-tropical."

The correct email address was the one extreme236 gave me.


There you have it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is the loop north of 24o now an eddy?

I hope the other oil companies realize this GOM spill is giving them all a bad name, and are offering methods, resources, expertise to kill it.
What do the Sweeds do up in the North Sea when they want to cap a deep well?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
552. myway
Quoting NttyGrtty:
A Scientific American Magazine guy interviewing on FOX says the government mineral management partying with the big oil companies instead of overseeing them goes back 15 years. That's through the change man and the oil man to the impeached man...


Come on man....There is no place for bipartisan rhetoric here. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jrweatherman:
456 Joe B. needs to be respected.

I think he needs to show a bit of respect to the NHC. He has publicly ripped them mercifully over the past couple of years.


Sometimes criticism isn't a lack of respect. I think most nations have the set that criticized their government but still show them respect.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
550. xcool
Joe B good ON long-range forecaster....
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Bastardi just rubs me the wrong way with his hype. I don't doubt he is knowledgeable, but he's just not a source I use.


Paradoxically speaking, it is so overbearing it is insipid.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The NHC responded!

This was my email to them:

" I have been following for quite some time now what is ex investigation 90L. I would like to know what your opinions on it are and if you think that ex-90L is currently nontropical or subtropical. Thanks for any input.

Have a great day!"

This is their response:

"It is non-tropical."

The correct email address was the one extreme236 gave me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stillwaiting:




don't most mets follow WX???,none of them were following this prior and you where the first to tell them about 90l,some sorry mets out there...,very,very suprised!!!


First off I said they came by to look at it with me. Doesnt mean it was the first time they looked at it. You know, have a conversation about it. Second off we teach and have regions to be resposible for so if it isnt happening in our region we dont have to time look everywhere else. When we get off work then we spend time with our familes. Not everyone is interested in a weak low off the east coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
546. xcool
Hurricanes101 :)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Cloud pattern signifies some tropical processes are taking place. Subtropical seems a fair assessment but it's all arbitrary. At what point do we draw the line? Reality is, all weather events are essentially the same: the movement of air. It's all arbitrary to some degree.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jrweatherman:
456 Joe B. needs to be respected.

I think he needs to show a bit of respect to the NHC. He has publicly ripped them mercifully over the past couple of years.


Agree
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
456 Joe B. needs to be respected.

I think he needs to show a bit of respect to the NHC. He has publicly ripped them mercifully over the past couple of years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 591 - 541

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron