What would a hurricane do to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:57 PM GMT on May 26, 2010

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Hurricane season is upon us next week, and the Deepwater Horizon blowout is still spewing a geyser of oil into the Gulf of Mexico. With this year's hurricane season likely to be a severe one, with much above average numbers of hurricanes and intense hurricanes, we have the unwholesome prospect of a hurricane churning through the largest accidental oil spill in history. A hurricane has never passed over a sizable oil spill before, so there are a lot of unknowns about what might happen. The closest call came in 1979, after the greatest accidental oil spill in history, the massive Ixtoc I blowout. That disaster dumped 3 million barrels (126 million gallons) of oil into the Southern Gulf of Mexico between June 1979 and March 1980. Category 1 Hurricane Henri passed just north of the main portion of the oil spill on September 16 and 17, generating 15 foot seas and southwest winds of 15 - 25 knots over the spill region on the 16th. Interestingly, the NOAA/AOML report on the spill found that the winds did not blow long enough or strongly enough to control the direction of oil flow, as evidenced by the fact that the wind direction was often 180° to the direction of plume flow. The main impact of the wind was to dilute the oil and weather it, converting it to a thick "mousse".

Oil and beaches
During the Ixtoc spill, prevailing currents circulating clockwise from the blowout carried a 60-mile by 70-mile patch of sheen containing a 300 foot by 500 foot patch of heavy crude 900 miles to the South Texas coast. On August 6, 1979, tarballs from the spill impacted a 17 mile stretch of Texas beach. Mousse patches impacted the shoreline north of Port Mansfield Channel on August 15 and again on August 18. On August 24, mousse impacted shoreline south of Aransas Pass. By August 26, most of North Padre Island was covered with moderate amounts of oil. By September 1, all of the south Texas coast had been impacted by oil. However, Hurricane Henri formed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on September 17 - 18. At the same time, a strong non-tropical low pressure system formed along the Texas coast, bringing gale-force winds and rainfall amounts in excess of ten inches to the coast. The combination of swells from Hurricane Henri and wind-driven waves from the non-tropical low pressure system scoured the oiled beaches of over 90% of their oil (Gundlach et al., 1981). The oil washed over the barrier islands into the estuaries behind them, and much of it sank to the bottom of the ocean. According to NOAA, impacts to the estuaries were minor. However, Payne and McNabb (1984) noted that selected regions of the coast, most of the beached oil was heavily resistant to transport during storms. Oil/sediment mats were ultimately covered by clean sand, but the oil/sediment mats were re-exposed and washed into the lagoon behind the barrier islands one year later when Category 3 Hurricane Allen battered the coast. No transport of the oil/sediment mats from the lagoon bottom was observed in the 3-year period following Hurricane Allen.

So, the Ixtoc blowout experience shows us that if a sandy beach is already fouled by oil, a hurricane can help clean up the mess. However, the situation is different along shores with marshlands, where the many shoreline plants offer crevices and tangled roots for the oil to accumulate in. A hurricane will help scour some of the oil out of marshlands, but the majority of it will probably remain stuck. This is also true of rocky beaches. Rocky shores fouled by the great Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska in 1989 have been pounded by many hurricane-strength storms over the years, but these storms were not able to clean the beaches of oil like Hurricane Henri did for Texas' beaches in 1979.

Transport of oil by hurricanes
Shores that are already fouled by oil will probably benefit from a hurricane, but the oil cleaned off of those shores then becomes someone else's problem. The strong winds and powerful ocean currents that a hurricane's winds drive will bring oil to large stretches of coast that otherwise would not have gotten oil. This is my chief concern regarding a hurricane moving through the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Consider the case of the Exxon Valdez disaster in 1989. The ill-fated tanker split open in Prince William Sound on March 24, and oil spill response crews were initially able to contain the spill behind booms and make good progress removing it. However, two days later, a powerful Gulf of Alaska storm with 70 mph winds roared through, overwhelming the containment booms and distributing the oil along a 90-mile stretch of coast. The oil went on to foul over 400 miles of Alaska coast, a far larger disaster than would have occurred than if the storm had not passed by. Similarly, a hurricane moving through the Gulf of Mexico spill will very likely make the disaster much worse, spreading out the oil over a larger region, and bringing the oil to shores that otherwise might not have seen oil. It is true that the oil will be diluted some by being spread out over a larger area, so some shores will not see a substantial oiling. But overall, a hurricane passing through the oil spill is likely to result in much higher damage to the coast.

I expect that during the peak portion of hurricane season (August - October), the clockwise-rotating eddy that is attempting to cut off from the Loop Current this week will be fully separated from the Loop Current. The separation of this eddy will substantially reduce the possibility that significant amounts of oil will reach the Florida Keys and Southeast U.S. coast, since the Loop Current will be much farther south, flowing more due east towards the Keys from the Yucatan Channel. Oil moving southwards from the spill location due to a hurricane's winds will tend to get trapped in the 250-mile wide eddy, potentially covering most of the surface of the eddy with oil. Thus we might have a 250-mile wide spinning oil slick in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico for days or weeks after a hurricane. This could potentially have a significant warming effect on the Gulf waters, since the oil is dark and will absorb sunlight, and the oil will prevent evaporation from cooling the waters underneath it. Since Loop Current eddies contain a large amount of very warm water that extend to great depth, they often act as high-octane fuel for hurricanes that pass over. The rapid intensification of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita were both aided by the passage of those storms over Loop Current eddies. Thus the warming of the Loop Current Eddy by oil pulled into it by a passing hurricane or tropical storm could lead to explosive intensification of the next hurricane that passes over the eddy.

The Loop Current Eddy will move slowly westwards toward Texas at about 4 miles per day after it fully cuts off. When it reaches the shallow waters near the Texas coast in early 2011, the eddy will turn northwards and gradually dissipate, By then, I expect that the vast majority of the oil in the eddy will have dispersed, sunk, or evaporated.

Storm surge and oil
One of the more unnerving prospects to consider if a hurricane hits the oil spill is what the hurricane's storm surge might do with the oil/dispersant mixture. The foul mix would ride inland on top of the surge, potentially fouling residential areas and hundreds of square miles of sensitive ecosystems with the toxic stew. The impacts of the oil and dispersant on vegetation may be too low to cause significant damage, since the hurricane would dilute the mixture with a large amount of sea water, and wash much of the toxic brew off the vegetation with heavy rain. We do have some limited experience with oil spills during Hurricane Katrina's storm surge to shed light on the subject. Katrina's storm surge caused over 8 million gallons of oil to spill into the storm surge waters. The largest spill occurred when the storm surge hit the Murphy Oil refinery in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana. According to Santella et al. (2010), The refinery was inundated with 12 feet of water, and a partially filled 250,000-barrel above ground storage tank was dislodged and ruptured, releasing 25,100 barrels (1.05 million gallons) of mixed crude oil. Dikes surrounding the oil tanks at the refinery were flooded and breached and oil from the spill covered a residential area of approximately one square mile affecting approximately 1,800 homes. Front-end loaders were needed to remove the oily sediments from the area. A class action lawsuit resulted from the spill, ending in a $330 million settlement with a buy-out of properties closest to the spill and graded compensation in a larger zone. Katrina also caused a 139,000-gallon crude oil leak from a 20-inch pipeline at Shell Nairn Pipeline Company in Port Sulphur, Louisiana. Approximately 10,500 gallons of the spill reached the shoreline and coastal marshes, and only 10,700 gallons were recovered. This release resulted in a $5.5 million class action settlement to nearby property owners (http://www.nairnclaims.com). I haven't been able to find any information on how the marshlands fared after getting oiled by this spill.

Katrina's storm surge also destroyed an oil tank at Chevron's Empire facility, releasing oil into a retention pond in a region surrounded by marshland. Three and half weeks later, Hurricane Rita's storm surge hit the oily mess in the retention pond, washing 4,000 - 8,000 gallons of oil into nearby marshlands, which were heavily or moderately oiled. According to the EPA and Merten et al. (2008), the oiled marshlands were set on fire six weeks after the spill, resulting in 80-90% removal of the oil and contaminated vegetation. The marshland recovered fairly quickly, as seen in aerial photos taken five months after the burn (Figure 1)--though oil still remained in the roots, affecting burrowing crabs and the wildlife that feed on them. So, oiled marshes can recover somewhat from a storm-surge driven oiling, but it is uncertain if burning could be successfully used to restore a 100+ square mile region of marshland oiled by the storm surge from a major hurricane. Another big unknown is how toxic BP's dispersants might be to the vegetation.


Figure 1. Upper left: oiled marshlands as seen on October 10, 2005, near Chevron's Empire facility, after the storm surges of Katrina and Rita. Right: The marshlands on March 16, 2006, five months after the controlled burn. The marshlands had largely recovered. Bottom: the controlled burn in progress (October 12, 2005.) Image credit: Merten, A.A., Henry, C., and J. Michel, 2008, Decision-making process to use in-situ burning to restore an oiled intermediate marsh following hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2008 International Oil Spill Conference.

Wind and oil
The winds from a hurricane hurl ocean sea spray miles inland, often causing major defoliation and tree damage far beyond where the storm surge penetrates. For example, Category 2 Hurricane Bob of 1991 blew sea spray inland 4 miles (7 km) inland over Cape Cod. The salt deposited defoliated nearly all the deciduous trees along the coast. Kerr, 2000 document the case of Category 2 Typhoon Gay of November 23, 1992, which hit the 15-km wide island of Guam with 95 - 100 mph winds. Interaction with another typhoon disrupted Gay's thunderstorm activity, resulting in a nearly rainless typhoon for Guam. As a result, heavy amounts of salt coated the entire island, resulting in nearly complete defoliation. The salt didn't actually kill many plants, and the island re-greened within a year. The Category 3 New England Hurricane of 1938 was able to cause salt damage to trees as far as 45 miles inland, due to wind-blown sea spray. Thus we can anticipate that a hurricane passing over the oil spill will be able to hurl oil and toxic dispersants many miles inland during landfall. In regions where little rain falls, the concentrations of the oil and dispersants may be a problem. Again, we have no experience with this sort of situation, so the potential risks are unknown.

Rain and oil
Hurricanes evaporate huge amounts of water from the ocean and convert it to rain. In general, we do not need to worry about oil dissolving into the rain, since the oil and water don't mix. Furthermore, about 50-70% of the oil that is going to evaporate from the spill does so in the first 12 hours that the oil reaches the surface, so the volatile oil compounds that could potentially get dissolved into rain water won't be around. Hurricanes are known to carry sea salt and microscopic marine plankton hundreds of miles inland, since the strong updrafts of the storm can put these substances high in the troposphere where they can be carried far inland as the hurricane makes landfall. The Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Nora of 1997, whose remnants passed over Southern California, brought traces of sea salt and marine microorganisms to clouds over the central U.S. similarly, we can expect any landfalling hurricanes that pass over the oil spill to pick up traces of Gulf of Mexico crude and transport it hundreds of miles inland. However, I doubt that these traces would be detectable in rainwater except by laboratory analysis, and would not cause any harm to plants or animals.

Lightning and oil
Could a lightning strike from a hurricane ignite oil from the spill, and the hurricane's winds hurl the flaming oil inland, creating a fiery maelstrom of water, wind, and flame? This would make a great scene in a typical bad Hollywood disaster movie, but it's not going to happen with the universe's current laws of physics. Lightning could set an oil slick on fire, in regions where the oil is most dense and very fresh. About 50-70% of the evaporation of oil's most flammable volatile compounds occurs in the first 12 hours after release, so fresh oil is the most likely to ignite. However, the winds of a hurricane are so fierce that any surface oil slick of flaming oil would quickly be disrupted and doused by wave action and sea spray. Heavy rain would further dampen any lightning-caused oil slick fires.

Bringing oil at depth to the surface
Hurricanes act like huge blenders that plow through the ocean, thoroughly mixing surface waters to depths as great as 200 meters (650 feet), and pulling waters from depth to the surface. Thus if sub-surface plumes of oil are located within 200 meters of the surface, a hurricane could potentially bring them to the surface. However, the huge sub-surface plumes of oil found by the research vessel Pelican were at depths of 2300 - 4200 feet, and a hurricane will not affect the ocean circulation at those depths.

Comparisons of the Deepwater Horizon blowout with Exxon Valdez
One footnote to consider when comparing the Deepwater Horizon blowout to the disastrous March 24, 1989 Exxon Valdez spill: the amount of oil spilled in that disaster is usually quoted as 11 million gallons (260,000 barrels.) However, this is the number given by Exxon Mobil, and independent assessments by the State of Alaska came up with a much higher figure--24 to 36 million gallons, with state investigators stressing that the lower number was very unlikely. I'd be inclined to believe Exxon grossly understated the actual severity of the spill, much like BP is attempting to do with the Deepwater Horizon blowout. Steven Wereley, an associate professor at Purdue University, used a computer analysis (particle image velocimetry) to arrive at a rate of 95,000 barrels (4 million gallons) per day since the April 20 blowout, nearly 20 times greater than the 5,000 barrel a day estimate BP and government scientists have been citing. If he is correct, and the State of Alaska's figures on the Exxon Valdez disaster are correct, the Deepwater Horizon blowout so far has spilled five times the oil Exxon Valdez did.

References
Gundlach, E.R., Finkelstein, K.J., and J.L. Sadd, "Impact and Persistence of Ixtoc I Oil on the South Texas Coast", Proceedings: 1981 Oil Spill Conference (Prevention, Behavior, Control, Cleanup) March 2-5, 1981, Atlanta, GA. p 477-485.

Kerr, A.M., 2000, "Defoliation of an island (Guam, Mariana
Archipelago, Western Pacific Ocean) following a saltspray-laden
dry typhoon," Journal of Tropical Ecology 16:895901.

Merten, A.A., Henry, C., and J. Michel, 2008, Decision-making process to use in-situ burning to restore an oiled intermediate marsh following hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2008 International Oil Spill Conference.

Payne, J.R. and D. McNabb, Jr., "Weathering of Petroleum in the Marine Environment", Marine Technology Society Journal 18, 3, Third Quarter 1984.

Santella, N., Steinberg, L.J., and H. Sengul, 2010,Petroleum and Hazardous Material Releases from Industrial Facilities Associated with Hurricane Katrina, Risk Analyis, Volume 30, Issue 4, Pages 635-649, Published Online: 16 Mar 2010

90L
I've been focused more on the oil spill, and will have just a limited discussion of (90L) off the South Carolina coast. The storm has changed little over the past 24 hours, and doesn't have time to develop into a subtropical storm, before an approaching trough of low pressure pulls the system out to sea Thursday and Friday. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 90L a less than 10% chance of developing into a depression or tropical/subtropical storm, and anticipates not writing any more special advisories on 90L. There presently isn't much to be concerned with about this storm, though Bermuda may get more heavy rain and high seas from the storm late this week as it moves out to sea. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on 90L.

Central American disturbance
An area of disturbed weather has developed just off the Pacific coast of Mexico. The disturbance will bring heavy rains to Central America during the remainder of the week, potentially bringing serious flooding rains to portions of Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. There is the potential for disturbed weather accompanying the disturbance to push into the Western Caribbean early next week and pose a threat to develop into a tropical depression. While there is high wind shear over the northern Caribbean, shear should be low enough to allow development should the disturbance stay in the southern reaches of the Caribbean. Any storm that develops in the Caribbean in the coming week would get steered to the northeast and will not pose a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Drakoen:
Soon this nontropical low (90L)will be absorbed.


Death by back door cold front.

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This was the map I sent to the NHC to illustrate the track discrepancy.

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Nado watch in affect for CO/WY

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Take punitive action against BP now
By Lt. Gen. Russel Honoré, Special to CNN
May 26, 2010 1:39 p.m. EDT



tzleft.honore.nola.file.


* Gen. Russel Honoré: This disaster is the BP oil spill, not the Gulf oil spill
* BP should be fined, he says, even $100 million, each day the oil is gushing
* Money from fines should be used to help Gulf Coast and its people recover, Honoré says
* General believes BP and negligent government regulators should face jail time

Editor's note: Lt. Gen. Russel Honoré commanded the military response to Hurricane Katrina. He retired from the U.S. Army in 2008 after 37 years, sits on the board of the Louisiana Disaster Recovery Foundation and is an adjunct professor at Emory and Vanderbilt universities. He is the author of "Survival: How a Culture of Preparedness Can Save America and You from Disasters."

(CNN) -- It's interesting how many people have swallowed the BP public relations' bait to call the explosion from Deepwater Horizon oil rig the Gulf oil spill. We need to call it what it is: the BP oil spill. The federal government needs to take control and take punitive action against BP and any negligent government regulators immediately.

As a concerned citizen, preparedness speaker and author, and former commander of federal troops in disaster response, I watched with interest as BP brought out its big PR guns to protect its brand and its platoon of expert engineers, paid by BP to talk about how it happened and how they intended to fix it.

BP's reaction was much like Toyota's when it was confronted with safety issues. It, too, focused on PR to protect its brand, versus telling the truth, and sent out its engineers to talk about the problem and the fix.

The U.S. Coast Guard was the first responder. The Coast Guard's priority always is to save lives. They spent days looking for the 11 missing men. Meanwhile, BP took advantage of this time to make itself the authoritative voice in the news about the spill and blame other companies.
The No. 1 rule when dealing with disaster is to figure out which rules you need to break.
--Lt. Gen. Russel Honore

The U.S. government response was based on laws and rules that were created after the Exxon Valdez oil spill. After Valdez, the law changed to make the offending company responsible for the cleanup. A fund was created that all oil companies contributed to. If there was an emergency oil spill, a company could draw up to $75 million from this fund to fix the problem. But the fund was meant to help small wildcat operations, not huge conglomerates like BP.

Sticking to that regulation was part of the problem. The No. 1 rule when dealing with disaster is to figure out which rules you need to break. Rules are designed for when everything is working. A democracy is based on trust. BP has proved it can't be trusted.

iReporters share views on oil spill response

The government needs to change the game and make this a punitive effort. The government has been too friendly to oil companies.

The government should immediately freeze BP's assets and start to charge the corporation -- say $100 million -- each day the oil flows. The money could be held in a fund that U.S. government draws on to take care of the people along the Gulf Coast and pay the states for doing the cleanup.

Next, BP and the government bureaucrats who broke a law and put the public at risk need to go to jail.
The latest curse going around in southern Louisiana today is, 'BP you.'
--Lt. Gen. Russel Honore
RELATED TOPICS

* BP plc
* Deepwater Horizon
* Exxon Valdez
* Hurricane Katrina
* Oil Spills

I remember when we were evacuating New Orleans on Saturday following Katrina. We pushed the survivors to the airport and a major called and said the pilots refused to fly the plane without a manifest and there was trouble with weapons scanners.

I told him to direct everyone to put the people on the planes as fast as possible, and we would to do the manifest en route or on landing. As a result, we flew 16,000 people out of NOLA airport in less than seven hours.

The priorities of the response to the spill must be to stop the flow of oil, prevent the oil from getting into the shoreline as much as possible, mitigate the effects of the oil in the ocean, and take care of the people who have lost their source of employment, such as fishermen and those in the tourist industry.

BP's job is to focus on stopping the flow of oil. The government needs to provide more military "command and control" of the situation. As BP works to stop the gusher, the government must address the problem of the oil coming ashore and take care of the people affected, possibly retraining them in other jobs. The government could do this by using the Stafford Act to fund the states so they can protect their shoreline and clean up the oil. Then, the long-term effects of the spill must be mitigated.

The people of the Gulf Coast, particularly South Louisiana, are still recovering from Katrina. They've been through hurricanes Rita, Gustav and Ike.

They know hurricane season is right around the corner and this BP oil spill has the potential to get much worse. And they don't trust BP.

In fact, the latest curse going around in southern Louisiana today is, "BP you."

Punitive action must start immediately, with BP supplying the money, from fines, to help the Gulf Coast get over this catastrophe.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Russel Honoré.
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Love the ignore feature of this blog.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I can agree with that.


but since they have decided to do so, you are going to get this kind of debate

Now if 90L does indeed curve back around towards Florida, what does that do in terms of its eventual development?

I would think that if it curves back toward Florida that it would not get absorb into any fronts either
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Quoting Drakoen:


And they have access to more data than we do



Exactly...
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Half the models have this going out to sea while the other half have it curving back to Florida

Yes but if you've noticed how they're trending back towards FL. As oppose to yesterday when all of the models pointed towards 90L going out to sea.
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Quoting Weather456:


I took a look and most are bordering warm-core, leaning to cold core. But I'll leave it as that since I have to go.
Later.
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Quoting Weather456:


And they should stop naming STC





I can agree with that.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


But they are the tropical authority that is in charge of naming.



And they should stop naming STC


So, this hurricane season shows us that, once again, it is important to stick and perhaps to be clearer with the definition of a tropical cyclone for the 2 reasons mentioned in this document

(Tropical Cyclone: A warm-core, non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and closed surface wind circulation about a well defined centre.)

-if the term “non frontal” is not enough to make a difference between tropical mechanism and mid-latitude mechanism with upper level forcing we have to think to be more precise.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


But they are the tropical authority that is in charge of naming.



And they have access to more data than we do
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I saw models on the blog (cyclone phase diagram) showing 90L in the warm-core catergory.


I took a look and most are bordering warm-core, leaning to cold core. But I'll leave it as that since I have to go.
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Quoting reedzone:


Look in Levis' blog.. Graphs/maps indicate the transition to warm core has occured, it is Subtropical, but not organized enough to be name. Just because the NHC sries non-tropical doesnt mean everyone can agree. NHC are not gods.


But they are the tropical authority that is in charge of naming. So I really dont think that we should be disagreeing with them so much. They went to school for this stuff and you picked it up off of a blog.

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626. srada
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Here are the models, as you can see some of the models do indeed curve 90L back to Florida


Well now thats its a possibility it might head back to florida, it can be a respected topic again..Im from NC and anytime something is tracking our way, i would like to hear about it..i mean we are on here just to track and observe and not wish up a storm right?? any storm whether subtropical, nontropical, or tropical should be given the blogs consideration in discussion..its noticeable on the blog that only certain people want to discuss things that can affect them or they can wish up for their area..
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Soon this nontropical low (90L)will be absorbed.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Nontropical invest 90L:



It's not non-tropical, it's subtropical, although too poorly organized to be named.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Thought this was going to happed since they haven't gotten the new GFS running in parallel yet. The implementation of the new GFS has been delayed, Postponed till July 2010
.


Dang. Thanks for the info.
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Quoting Weather456:


Models? Models are leaning 90L to non-tropical so you are effectively agreeing with them. The best way to determine the phase of a cyclone is by looking at the objective data, satellite imagery, surface obs, upper air obs, etc.
I saw models on the blog (cyclone phase diagram) showing 90L in the warm-core catergory.
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Quoting cg2916:
How is it subtropical now? What characteristics does it meet?


Look in Levis' blog.. Graphs/maps indicate the transition to warm core has occured, it is Subtropical, but not organized enough to be name. Just because the NHC cries non-tropical doesnt mean everyone can agree. NHC are not gods.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Hey buddy I just heard that 90L is going to head across Florida in a few days. Is this true and are their models supporting this. I thought this was going out to sea. Has something changed?



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Thought this was going to happed since they haven't gotten the new GFS running in parallel yet. The implementation of the new GFS has been delayed, Postponed till July 2010
.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Models are subject to large errors, I know that they are saying that ex-90L is subtropical, but I just have to go with what the big dogs are saying, I'm going with nontropical.


Models? Models are leaning 90L to non-tropical so you are effectively agreeing with them. The best way to determine the phase of a cyclone is by looking at the objective data, satellite imagery, surface obs, upper air obs, etc.
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Doc Masters - a question: In remediating petroleum-contaminated soils and groundwater we 'air-sparge' - inject air into the subsurface. This accellerates the micribial action that breaks down the hydrocarbons. A comment made about the sub-surface plumes is that they are depleting the oxygen in the water column. Might we be able to inject air 'down below' into these plumes? Also, perhaps inject air with the dispersement agents? With the high pressure and cold temperatures at depth solubility of oxygen should be fairly high.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


I see water spinning every time I flush, should the NHC name that too?
thats the flush model most reliable of all
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Here are the models, as you can see some of the models do indeed curve 90L back to Florida
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I see that 90L is pretty much flat-lining.

Cold dry air just keeps on getting pumped into the circulation shutting any convection attempts down.


Yup
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Quoting Jeff9641:



This came from Tom Terry our local met in Orlando. I just heard that most models have this looping back across Florida as a remnant system in a few days. I just check the models on this site and yes that is true. If this happens then there has to be a remote possibility of strength as it crosses 80 degree ocean temps. If you don't believe this then you might want to take a look at the updated models.


Half the models have this going out to sea while the other half have it curving back to Florida
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Quoting Jeff9641:



This came from Tom Terry our local met in Orlando. I just heard that most models have this looping back across Florida as a remnant system in a few days. I just check the models on this site and yes that is true. If this happens then there has to be a remote possibility of strength as it crosses 80 degree ocean temps. If you don't believe this then you might want to take a look at the updated models.


Email me a link to these models so I can take a look at them when I get back.
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Hey stormpetrol I think you are right I say possibly no E-Pac storm but the way it going we might have TD-1 or TS ALEX in the W Caribbean. So are you ready for this if it comes and for the rest of the season?
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Quoting Weather456:


It is not organized enough to be named. It is subtropical however.
Models are subject to large errors, I know that they are saying that ex-90L is subtropical, but I just have to go with what the big dogs are saying, I'm going with nontropical.
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BBL
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In this corner we have subtropical (why is not named Alex) and is this corner we have nontropical Invest 90L.

BAM! POW! SMASH! OUCH!

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Quoting cg2916:
456, please tell me the characteristics 90L meets.


It is neither entirely cold core nor is it entirely warm-core.
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Hello Everyone. Been lurking a bit. Thanks to Dr. Masters for such in-depth Oil Spill/Hurricane analysis. Trite but true, it's still so heartbreaking and difficult to hear information on The Spill. Sometimes I choose to ignore for my sanity's sake. Thanks to all for supporting those currently affected, because it's eventually going to affect the whole country. I wonder if many realize this?
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Quoting Weather456:


It is not organized enough to be named. It is subtropical however.


Well, then it's a Subtropical Depression, right?
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Quoting biff4ugo:
Is the loop north of 24o now an eddy?

I hope the other oil companies realize this GOM spill is giving them all a bad name, and are offering methods, resources, expertise to kill it.
What do the Sweeds do up in the North Sea when they want to cap a deep well?


The Scandinavians have additional fail safes that BP didn't want to use...too costly
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456, please tell me the characteristics 90L meets.
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599. xcool
ALL forecast models did poor jobs...anywaynext
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting biff4ugo:
Is the loop north of 24o now an eddy?

I hope the other oil companies realize this GOM spill is giving them all a bad name, and are offering methods, resources, expertise to kill it.
What do the Sweeds do up in the North Sea when they want to cap a deep well?


Yup
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597. xcool
90L DONE.imo
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting cg2916:


You can see it spinning! Come on, NHC!


It is not organized enough to be named. It is subtropical however.
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Quoting mikatnight:
And it's still not right, judging from this graphic.



That storm gets no respect, cant get the track right and now it is not even the earliest known CAT 5 anymore
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


I see water spinning every time I flush, should the NHC name that too?


XD, yes, they should.
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And it's still not right, judging from this graphic.

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I see that 90L is pretty much flat-lining.

Cold dry air just keeps on getting pumped into the circulation shutting any convection attempts down.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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