What would a hurricane do to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:57 PM GMT on May 26, 2010

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Hurricane season is upon us next week, and the Deepwater Horizon blowout is still spewing a geyser of oil into the Gulf of Mexico. With this year's hurricane season likely to be a severe one, with much above average numbers of hurricanes and intense hurricanes, we have the unwholesome prospect of a hurricane churning through the largest accidental oil spill in history. A hurricane has never passed over a sizable oil spill before, so there are a lot of unknowns about what might happen. The closest call came in 1979, after the greatest accidental oil spill in history, the massive Ixtoc I blowout. That disaster dumped 3 million barrels (126 million gallons) of oil into the Southern Gulf of Mexico between June 1979 and March 1980. Category 1 Hurricane Henri passed just north of the main portion of the oil spill on September 16 and 17, generating 15 foot seas and southwest winds of 15 - 25 knots over the spill region on the 16th. Interestingly, the NOAA/AOML report on the spill found that the winds did not blow long enough or strongly enough to control the direction of oil flow, as evidenced by the fact that the wind direction was often 180° to the direction of plume flow. The main impact of the wind was to dilute the oil and weather it, converting it to a thick "mousse".

Oil and beaches
During the Ixtoc spill, prevailing currents circulating clockwise from the blowout carried a 60-mile by 70-mile patch of sheen containing a 300 foot by 500 foot patch of heavy crude 900 miles to the South Texas coast. On August 6, 1979, tarballs from the spill impacted a 17 mile stretch of Texas beach. Mousse patches impacted the shoreline north of Port Mansfield Channel on August 15 and again on August 18. On August 24, mousse impacted shoreline south of Aransas Pass. By August 26, most of North Padre Island was covered with moderate amounts of oil. By September 1, all of the south Texas coast had been impacted by oil. However, Hurricane Henri formed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on September 17 - 18. At the same time, a strong non-tropical low pressure system formed along the Texas coast, bringing gale-force winds and rainfall amounts in excess of ten inches to the coast. The combination of swells from Hurricane Henri and wind-driven waves from the non-tropical low pressure system scoured the oiled beaches of over 90% of their oil (Gundlach et al., 1981). The oil washed over the barrier islands into the estuaries behind them, and much of it sank to the bottom of the ocean. According to NOAA, impacts to the estuaries were minor. However, Payne and McNabb (1984) noted that selected regions of the coast, most of the beached oil was heavily resistant to transport during storms. Oil/sediment mats were ultimately covered by clean sand, but the oil/sediment mats were re-exposed and washed into the lagoon behind the barrier islands one year later when Category 3 Hurricane Allen battered the coast. No transport of the oil/sediment mats from the lagoon bottom was observed in the 3-year period following Hurricane Allen.

So, the Ixtoc blowout experience shows us that if a sandy beach is already fouled by oil, a hurricane can help clean up the mess. However, the situation is different along shores with marshlands, where the many shoreline plants offer crevices and tangled roots for the oil to accumulate in. A hurricane will help scour some of the oil out of marshlands, but the majority of it will probably remain stuck. This is also true of rocky beaches. Rocky shores fouled by the great Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska in 1989 have been pounded by many hurricane-strength storms over the years, but these storms were not able to clean the beaches of oil like Hurricane Henri did for Texas' beaches in 1979.

Transport of oil by hurricanes
Shores that are already fouled by oil will probably benefit from a hurricane, but the oil cleaned off of those shores then becomes someone else's problem. The strong winds and powerful ocean currents that a hurricane's winds drive will bring oil to large stretches of coast that otherwise would not have gotten oil. This is my chief concern regarding a hurricane moving through the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Consider the case of the Exxon Valdez disaster in 1989. The ill-fated tanker split open in Prince William Sound on March 24, and oil spill response crews were initially able to contain the spill behind booms and make good progress removing it. However, two days later, a powerful Gulf of Alaska storm with 70 mph winds roared through, overwhelming the containment booms and distributing the oil along a 90-mile stretch of coast. The oil went on to foul over 400 miles of Alaska coast, a far larger disaster than would have occurred than if the storm had not passed by. Similarly, a hurricane moving through the Gulf of Mexico spill will very likely make the disaster much worse, spreading out the oil over a larger region, and bringing the oil to shores that otherwise might not have seen oil. It is true that the oil will be diluted some by being spread out over a larger area, so some shores will not see a substantial oiling. But overall, a hurricane passing through the oil spill is likely to result in much higher damage to the coast.

I expect that during the peak portion of hurricane season (August - October), the clockwise-rotating eddy that is attempting to cut off from the Loop Current this week will be fully separated from the Loop Current. The separation of this eddy will substantially reduce the possibility that significant amounts of oil will reach the Florida Keys and Southeast U.S. coast, since the Loop Current will be much farther south, flowing more due east towards the Keys from the Yucatan Channel. Oil moving southwards from the spill location due to a hurricane's winds will tend to get trapped in the 250-mile wide eddy, potentially covering most of the surface of the eddy with oil. Thus we might have a 250-mile wide spinning oil slick in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico for days or weeks after a hurricane. This could potentially have a significant warming effect on the Gulf waters, since the oil is dark and will absorb sunlight, and the oil will prevent evaporation from cooling the waters underneath it. Since Loop Current eddies contain a large amount of very warm water that extend to great depth, they often act as high-octane fuel for hurricanes that pass over. The rapid intensification of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita were both aided by the passage of those storms over Loop Current eddies. Thus the warming of the Loop Current Eddy by oil pulled into it by a passing hurricane or tropical storm could lead to explosive intensification of the next hurricane that passes over the eddy.

The Loop Current Eddy will move slowly westwards toward Texas at about 4 miles per day after it fully cuts off. When it reaches the shallow waters near the Texas coast in early 2011, the eddy will turn northwards and gradually dissipate, By then, I expect that the vast majority of the oil in the eddy will have dispersed, sunk, or evaporated.

Storm surge and oil
One of the more unnerving prospects to consider if a hurricane hits the oil spill is what the hurricane's storm surge might do with the oil/dispersant mixture. The foul mix would ride inland on top of the surge, potentially fouling residential areas and hundreds of square miles of sensitive ecosystems with the toxic stew. The impacts of the oil and dispersant on vegetation may be too low to cause significant damage, since the hurricane would dilute the mixture with a large amount of sea water, and wash much of the toxic brew off the vegetation with heavy rain. We do have some limited experience with oil spills during Hurricane Katrina's storm surge to shed light on the subject. Katrina's storm surge caused over 8 million gallons of oil to spill into the storm surge waters. The largest spill occurred when the storm surge hit the Murphy Oil refinery in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana. According to Santella et al. (2010), The refinery was inundated with 12 feet of water, and a partially filled 250,000-barrel above ground storage tank was dislodged and ruptured, releasing 25,100 barrels (1.05 million gallons) of mixed crude oil. Dikes surrounding the oil tanks at the refinery were flooded and breached and oil from the spill covered a residential area of approximately one square mile affecting approximately 1,800 homes. Front-end loaders were needed to remove the oily sediments from the area. A class action lawsuit resulted from the spill, ending in a $330 million settlement with a buy-out of properties closest to the spill and graded compensation in a larger zone. Katrina also caused a 139,000-gallon crude oil leak from a 20-inch pipeline at Shell Nairn Pipeline Company in Port Sulphur, Louisiana. Approximately 10,500 gallons of the spill reached the shoreline and coastal marshes, and only 10,700 gallons were recovered. This release resulted in a $5.5 million class action settlement to nearby property owners (http://www.nairnclaims.com). I haven't been able to find any information on how the marshlands fared after getting oiled by this spill.

Katrina's storm surge also destroyed an oil tank at Chevron's Empire facility, releasing oil into a retention pond in a region surrounded by marshland. Three and half weeks later, Hurricane Rita's storm surge hit the oily mess in the retention pond, washing 4,000 - 8,000 gallons of oil into nearby marshlands, which were heavily or moderately oiled. According to the EPA and Merten et al. (2008), the oiled marshlands were set on fire six weeks after the spill, resulting in 80-90% removal of the oil and contaminated vegetation. The marshland recovered fairly quickly, as seen in aerial photos taken five months after the burn (Figure 1)--though oil still remained in the roots, affecting burrowing crabs and the wildlife that feed on them. So, oiled marshes can recover somewhat from a storm-surge driven oiling, but it is uncertain if burning could be successfully used to restore a 100+ square mile region of marshland oiled by the storm surge from a major hurricane. Another big unknown is how toxic BP's dispersants might be to the vegetation.


Figure 1. Upper left: oiled marshlands as seen on October 10, 2005, near Chevron's Empire facility, after the storm surges of Katrina and Rita. Right: The marshlands on March 16, 2006, five months after the controlled burn. The marshlands had largely recovered. Bottom: the controlled burn in progress (October 12, 2005.) Image credit: Merten, A.A., Henry, C., and J. Michel, 2008, Decision-making process to use in-situ burning to restore an oiled intermediate marsh following hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2008 International Oil Spill Conference.

Wind and oil
The winds from a hurricane hurl ocean sea spray miles inland, often causing major defoliation and tree damage far beyond where the storm surge penetrates. For example, Category 2 Hurricane Bob of 1991 blew sea spray inland 4 miles (7 km) inland over Cape Cod. The salt deposited defoliated nearly all the deciduous trees along the coast. Kerr, 2000 document the case of Category 2 Typhoon Gay of November 23, 1992, which hit the 15-km wide island of Guam with 95 - 100 mph winds. Interaction with another typhoon disrupted Gay's thunderstorm activity, resulting in a nearly rainless typhoon for Guam. As a result, heavy amounts of salt coated the entire island, resulting in nearly complete defoliation. The salt didn't actually kill many plants, and the island re-greened within a year. The Category 3 New England Hurricane of 1938 was able to cause salt damage to trees as far as 45 miles inland, due to wind-blown sea spray. Thus we can anticipate that a hurricane passing over the oil spill will be able to hurl oil and toxic dispersants many miles inland during landfall. In regions where little rain falls, the concentrations of the oil and dispersants may be a problem. Again, we have no experience with this sort of situation, so the potential risks are unknown.

Rain and oil
Hurricanes evaporate huge amounts of water from the ocean and convert it to rain. In general, we do not need to worry about oil dissolving into the rain, since the oil and water don't mix. Furthermore, about 50-70% of the oil that is going to evaporate from the spill does so in the first 12 hours that the oil reaches the surface, so the volatile oil compounds that could potentially get dissolved into rain water won't be around. Hurricanes are known to carry sea salt and microscopic marine plankton hundreds of miles inland, since the strong updrafts of the storm can put these substances high in the troposphere where they can be carried far inland as the hurricane makes landfall. The Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Nora of 1997, whose remnants passed over Southern California, brought traces of sea salt and marine microorganisms to clouds over the central U.S. similarly, we can expect any landfalling hurricanes that pass over the oil spill to pick up traces of Gulf of Mexico crude and transport it hundreds of miles inland. However, I doubt that these traces would be detectable in rainwater except by laboratory analysis, and would not cause any harm to plants or animals.

Lightning and oil
Could a lightning strike from a hurricane ignite oil from the spill, and the hurricane's winds hurl the flaming oil inland, creating a fiery maelstrom of water, wind, and flame? This would make a great scene in a typical bad Hollywood disaster movie, but it's not going to happen with the universe's current laws of physics. Lightning could set an oil slick on fire, in regions where the oil is most dense and very fresh. About 50-70% of the evaporation of oil's most flammable volatile compounds occurs in the first 12 hours after release, so fresh oil is the most likely to ignite. However, the winds of a hurricane are so fierce that any surface oil slick of flaming oil would quickly be disrupted and doused by wave action and sea spray. Heavy rain would further dampen any lightning-caused oil slick fires.

Bringing oil at depth to the surface
Hurricanes act like huge blenders that plow through the ocean, thoroughly mixing surface waters to depths as great as 200 meters (650 feet), and pulling waters from depth to the surface. Thus if sub-surface plumes of oil are located within 200 meters of the surface, a hurricane could potentially bring them to the surface. However, the huge sub-surface plumes of oil found by the research vessel Pelican were at depths of 2300 - 4200 feet, and a hurricane will not affect the ocean circulation at those depths.

Comparisons of the Deepwater Horizon blowout with Exxon Valdez
One footnote to consider when comparing the Deepwater Horizon blowout to the disastrous March 24, 1989 Exxon Valdez spill: the amount of oil spilled in that disaster is usually quoted as 11 million gallons (260,000 barrels.) However, this is the number given by Exxon Mobil, and independent assessments by the State of Alaska came up with a much higher figure--24 to 36 million gallons, with state investigators stressing that the lower number was very unlikely. I'd be inclined to believe Exxon grossly understated the actual severity of the spill, much like BP is attempting to do with the Deepwater Horizon blowout. Steven Wereley, an associate professor at Purdue University, used a computer analysis (particle image velocimetry) to arrive at a rate of 95,000 barrels (4 million gallons) per day since the April 20 blowout, nearly 20 times greater than the 5,000 barrel a day estimate BP and government scientists have been citing. If he is correct, and the State of Alaska's figures on the Exxon Valdez disaster are correct, the Deepwater Horizon blowout so far has spilled five times the oil Exxon Valdez did.

References
Gundlach, E.R., Finkelstein, K.J., and J.L. Sadd, "Impact and Persistence of Ixtoc I Oil on the South Texas Coast", Proceedings: 1981 Oil Spill Conference (Prevention, Behavior, Control, Cleanup) March 2-5, 1981, Atlanta, GA. p 477-485.

Kerr, A.M., 2000, "Defoliation of an island (Guam, Mariana
Archipelago, Western Pacific Ocean) following a saltspray-laden
dry typhoon," Journal of Tropical Ecology 16:895901.

Merten, A.A., Henry, C., and J. Michel, 2008, Decision-making process to use in-situ burning to restore an oiled intermediate marsh following hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2008 International Oil Spill Conference.

Payne, J.R. and D. McNabb, Jr., "Weathering of Petroleum in the Marine Environment", Marine Technology Society Journal 18, 3, Third Quarter 1984.

Santella, N., Steinberg, L.J., and H. Sengul, 2010,Petroleum and Hazardous Material Releases from Industrial Facilities Associated with Hurricane Katrina, Risk Analyis, Volume 30, Issue 4, Pages 635-649, Published Online: 16 Mar 2010

90L
I've been focused more on the oil spill, and will have just a limited discussion of (90L) off the South Carolina coast. The storm has changed little over the past 24 hours, and doesn't have time to develop into a subtropical storm, before an approaching trough of low pressure pulls the system out to sea Thursday and Friday. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 90L a less than 10% chance of developing into a depression or tropical/subtropical storm, and anticipates not writing any more special advisories on 90L. There presently isn't much to be concerned with about this storm, though Bermuda may get more heavy rain and high seas from the storm late this week as it moves out to sea. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on 90L.

Central American disturbance
An area of disturbed weather has developed just off the Pacific coast of Mexico. The disturbance will bring heavy rains to Central America during the remainder of the week, potentially bringing serious flooding rains to portions of Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. There is the potential for disturbed weather accompanying the disturbance to push into the Western Caribbean early next week and pose a threat to develop into a tropical depression. While there is high wind shear over the northern Caribbean, shear should be low enough to allow development should the disturbance stay in the southern reaches of the Caribbean. Any storm that develops in the Caribbean in the coming week would get steered to the northeast and will not pose a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

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1041. tramp96
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

I am far far far from an expert but from what I have read that is one concern. I would assume the other concern is the pressure from the oil is to great and they can use enough force to get the mud all the way to the bottom.

Are they trying to mud and then cement?
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1040. pottery
Quoting HyDrO420:



I'm not him but it seen to me the mud would just come out of the pipe with the oil.. that is the path of least resistance.. least thats how i see it in my head.

Yeah, I understand what you are saying.
Initially, some of the mud will be ejected with the flow.
The plan is to dump enough mud (it is a very heavy thick fluid) under high pressure into the Blow Out Preventer. Once the pressure builds behind the mud, then the mud will start to flow down the drill casing and fill the casing.
The weight of the mud will be enough to counter the pressure in the well, and stop the flow.
Then they pump concrete into the well, and seal it permanently


THIS IS THE PLAN!!

It has worked countless times before, but NEVER TRIED in these conditions.
I am not an expert but I know a bit about these things. And as BP says, they are reasonably sure (60-70% ) it will work. (that means 30-40% it wont!!)
I have expressed my fears of what could likely go wrong. Earlier.
I do not KNOW that this will work.
I am interested in it because it is Technical Wizzardry, and I want the Oil to stop coming out of the dam pipe.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
1039. SLU
Quoting pottery:

Did not see the news. But I could not get out of Freeport! Highway was blocked near Carlsen Field.
More rain coming......


Safe to say the drought is over?
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 5126
Quoting tramp96:

What could go wrong, further fracturing the pipe?

I am far far far from an expert but from what I have read that is one concern. I would assume the other concern is the pressure from the oil is to great and they can use enough force to get the mud all the way to the bottom.
Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640
1037. tramp96
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:


The mud they are using is very heavy compared to the oil, water and gas. The oil and gas will try to find away around the mud but shouldnt be able to push out that much mud at once. Some of it will spill out but the weight of the mud with pressure should start to win out.

What could go wrong, further fracturing of the pipe?
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Looks like a wet night coming Pottery.
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Quoting HyDrO420:



I'm not him but it seen to me the mud would just come out of the pipe with the oil.. that is the path of least resistance.. least thats how i see it in my head.


The mud they are using is very heavy compared to the oil, water and gas. The oil and gas will try to find away around the mud but shouldnt be able to push out that much mud at once. Some of it will spill out but the weight of the mud with pressure should start to win out.
Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640
1034. pottery
Quoting DDR:
Pottery
Clouds building to our east,not a good thing...Did you see the flood on news?...wow!

Did not see the news. But I could not get out of Freeport! Highway was blocked near Carlsen Field.
More rain coming......
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
Quoting pottery:

Well, it would be nice if you could explain why you think it will not work.



I'm not him but it seen to me the mud would just come out of the pipe with the oil.. that is the path of least resistance.. least thats how i see it in my head.
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1032. DDR
Pottery
Clouds building to our east,not a good thing...Did you see the flood on news?...wow!
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1031. DEKRE
Quoting pottery:
I saw that earlier too.
Does not sound like much, when you see whats coming out now.


That's 45 gall per second
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Quoting FIU2010:


true, guys. Hi, StormWatch.
Hi buddy. LOL
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Very monsoon like.. its going to take awhile to come together.. kinda like a big soup.
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Vertical shear over 90E is only 10-15 knots.

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Quoting SevereHurricane:


The models aren't always right. You need to consider all possibilities.
Yeah, and the other would be steering currents, and at the moment they really aren't too useful.

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1026. DEKRE
Quoting rinkrat61:
I am not wrong!!!


Nobody would leave a well full of mud when they are just about ready to cap and leave it.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Which not many models are foreseeing.


The models aren't always right. You need to consider all possibilities.
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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11151
1023. pottery
Quoting rinkrat61:
I am not wrong!!!

Well, it would be nice if you could explain why you think it will not work.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Exactly, unless the system itself crosses into the Caribbean.
Which not many models are foreseeing.
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1021. pottery
Quoting DEKRE:
Mud pumping rate is 65 Barrels/min (CNN)
I saw that earlier too.
Does not sound like much, when you see whats coming out now.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Keep in mind the weaker 90E stays, the more available moisture and energy that would be available for any sort of formation in the Caribbean


Exactly, unless the system itself crosses into the Caribbean.
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1019. txjac
If you go to cnn live feeds right now there is one that links to eight differnt views of the top kill operation

Good evening all
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Quoting pottery:

OK.
I see your point, but I think you are wrong.
And I HOPE you are wrong.
I am not wrong!!!
Member Since: November 6, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 41
1016. DEKRE
Mud pumping rate is 65 Barrels/min (CNN)
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Live current briefing from Roberts LA regarding Oil Spill

http://edition.cnn.com/video/flashLive/live.html?stream=stream/3&hpt=T1
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Keep in mind the weaker 90E stays, the more available moisture and energy that would be available for any sort of formation in the Caribbean
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7683
Looks like the NHC agrees with me on TD 1-E in the next 24-48 hours.
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1012. cg2916
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED MAY 26 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
STILL FAVOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. THESE RAINS COULD BE ESPECIALLY PERSISTENT OVER EL
SALVADOR...SOUTHERN HONDURAS...AND COASTAL GUATEMALA. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ROBERTS
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Quoting msgambler:
Hey Pat, Did you happen to hear how many gallons of mud they had on hand? Or how many they planned on pumping?


Not Pat, but one article yesterday said they had 2 ships there with 50k barrels in each.
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Quoting SouthALWX:

alright simmer down JFV. The oil is far more important than 90E or 90L.
I agree. The development of 90E is possible, maybe even probable but the oil has already occurred and is creating a lot of devastation already.
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1009. cg2916
Quoting stormhank:
anyone know if by the time we get to mid june if shear will drop across carribean n gulf??


Yup, it should by then.
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Quoting FIU2010:


thanks.
No prob.
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anyone know if by the time we get to mid june if shear will drop across carribean n gulf??
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I was looking at the SST maps for May 11 & May 25. I don't see any increase in temperature the last two weeks East of 60W. West of 60W has undergone noticeable warmup.

Less temp anomaly East of 60W & Increase in temp anomaly West of 60W. Expect to see anything going through the Carribean to blow up like Dean & Felix of a couple of years ago.
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What are the thoughts of the board on this comment that I found from a fellow Floridian and their experience today?
Link
.
.
.
Hi all,

Making this quick, don't feel well. About 4:15pm or so eastern, coming back from Tampa, Florida north on Veteran's Expressway...about 7 miles perhaps from SR 54...it sprinkled some gray watery and solid black oil on my car. Thought it was bugs, but so fast did not make sense and windshield wipers just smeared it. Got out of car at store and looked on the paint and solid black dots on my car...I touch? huh? it's wet? it's OIL!!!!!

I had several folks verify it before I sprayed it off and it came off easier than the few love bugs. Two hours later still wet like OIL! nope, not water, smell it, OIL!!!

Anyone on Gulf try not to smear touch it as it is harder to wash off if it happens to you. Bands of storm clouds coming this way from Gulf of Mexico...has not actually rained at least where I have been, just ran through the sprinkle. I smell it now I am inside the house...it's just hard for me to believe also. One can think of a other things...oh maybe it was a vehicle in front of you...there was no vehicles near me at the time. So coincidence oil spill in the gulf and it rains oil on my car? okay believe what you will...but I know my gut and what happened to me, what I saw, others witnessed, I took pics of (sorry don't know how to post them, and it photos could be debatable anyway, take my word or not whichever...but we are in deep hocky doo folks.
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Here's to hoping BP gets the leak stopped.
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1003. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Guess we'll see if we get a good WINDSAT or ASCAT pass later tonight.


It may not be maintaining, but it's sure bursting convection.
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Quoting SevereHurricane:


There is no dominate well define circulation associated with 90E at the moment and I am yet to see 90E maintain deep convection over or near the LLC for 24 hours.
Guess we'll see if we get a good WINDSAT or ASCAT pass later tonight.
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1001. cg2916
You can see a COC trying to form near 13 N, 92W:

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1000. pottery
Quoting msgambler:
Thanks pottery. Been gone for a couple hours and must have missed it.

It's 13 mins but worth watching.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307
Quoting stormhank:
east pac disurbance going to affect any areas of carribean??
Possibly.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Why?


There is no dominate well define circulation associated with 90E at the moment and I am yet to see 90E maintain deep convection over or near the LLC for 24 hours.
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996. DEKRE
Quoting pottery:

Again, go back to post 760.
All that is covered there very well.


Here is that link again Link
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Thanks pottery. Been gone for a couple hours and must have missed it.
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east pac disurbance going to affect any areas of carribean??
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Why?


too broad for now, would take several days to get going
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7683
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I expect 90E to go red on the NHC within 12 hours and to become TD 1-E within 30 hours.


We will see. 90E is still quite disorganized. 850mb vorticity associated with 90E is quite elongated at the moment and land interaction might be slowing development.
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Quoting msgambler:
Hey Pat, Did you happen to hear how many gallons of mud they had on hand? Or how many they planned on pumping?

Again, go back to post 760.
All that is covered there very well.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24307

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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