What would a hurricane do to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:57 PM GMT on May 26, 2010

Share this Blog
8
+

Hurricane season is upon us next week, and the Deepwater Horizon blowout is still spewing a geyser of oil into the Gulf of Mexico. With this year's hurricane season likely to be a severe one, with much above average numbers of hurricanes and intense hurricanes, we have the unwholesome prospect of a hurricane churning through the largest accidental oil spill in history. A hurricane has never passed over a sizable oil spill before, so there are a lot of unknowns about what might happen. The closest call came in 1979, after the greatest accidental oil spill in history, the massive Ixtoc I blowout. That disaster dumped 3 million barrels (126 million gallons) of oil into the Southern Gulf of Mexico between June 1979 and March 1980. Category 1 Hurricane Henri passed just north of the main portion of the oil spill on September 16 and 17, generating 15 foot seas and southwest winds of 15 - 25 knots over the spill region on the 16th. Interestingly, the NOAA/AOML report on the spill found that the winds did not blow long enough or strongly enough to control the direction of oil flow, as evidenced by the fact that the wind direction was often 180° to the direction of plume flow. The main impact of the wind was to dilute the oil and weather it, converting it to a thick "mousse".

Oil and beaches
During the Ixtoc spill, prevailing currents circulating clockwise from the blowout carried a 60-mile by 70-mile patch of sheen containing a 300 foot by 500 foot patch of heavy crude 900 miles to the South Texas coast. On August 6, 1979, tarballs from the spill impacted a 17 mile stretch of Texas beach. Mousse patches impacted the shoreline north of Port Mansfield Channel on August 15 and again on August 18. On August 24, mousse impacted shoreline south of Aransas Pass. By August 26, most of North Padre Island was covered with moderate amounts of oil. By September 1, all of the south Texas coast had been impacted by oil. However, Hurricane Henri formed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on September 17 - 18. At the same time, a strong non-tropical low pressure system formed along the Texas coast, bringing gale-force winds and rainfall amounts in excess of ten inches to the coast. The combination of swells from Hurricane Henri and wind-driven waves from the non-tropical low pressure system scoured the oiled beaches of over 90% of their oil (Gundlach et al., 1981). The oil washed over the barrier islands into the estuaries behind them, and much of it sank to the bottom of the ocean. According to NOAA, impacts to the estuaries were minor. However, Payne and McNabb (1984) noted that selected regions of the coast, most of the beached oil was heavily resistant to transport during storms. Oil/sediment mats were ultimately covered by clean sand, but the oil/sediment mats were re-exposed and washed into the lagoon behind the barrier islands one year later when Category 3 Hurricane Allen battered the coast. No transport of the oil/sediment mats from the lagoon bottom was observed in the 3-year period following Hurricane Allen.

So, the Ixtoc blowout experience shows us that if a sandy beach is already fouled by oil, a hurricane can help clean up the mess. However, the situation is different along shores with marshlands, where the many shoreline plants offer crevices and tangled roots for the oil to accumulate in. A hurricane will help scour some of the oil out of marshlands, but the majority of it will probably remain stuck. This is also true of rocky beaches. Rocky shores fouled by the great Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska in 1989 have been pounded by many hurricane-strength storms over the years, but these storms were not able to clean the beaches of oil like Hurricane Henri did for Texas' beaches in 1979.

Transport of oil by hurricanes
Shores that are already fouled by oil will probably benefit from a hurricane, but the oil cleaned off of those shores then becomes someone else's problem. The strong winds and powerful ocean currents that a hurricane's winds drive will bring oil to large stretches of coast that otherwise would not have gotten oil. This is my chief concern regarding a hurricane moving through the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Consider the case of the Exxon Valdez disaster in 1989. The ill-fated tanker split open in Prince William Sound on March 24, and oil spill response crews were initially able to contain the spill behind booms and make good progress removing it. However, two days later, a powerful Gulf of Alaska storm with 70 mph winds roared through, overwhelming the containment booms and distributing the oil along a 90-mile stretch of coast. The oil went on to foul over 400 miles of Alaska coast, a far larger disaster than would have occurred than if the storm had not passed by. Similarly, a hurricane moving through the Gulf of Mexico spill will very likely make the disaster much worse, spreading out the oil over a larger region, and bringing the oil to shores that otherwise might not have seen oil. It is true that the oil will be diluted some by being spread out over a larger area, so some shores will not see a substantial oiling. But overall, a hurricane passing through the oil spill is likely to result in much higher damage to the coast.

I expect that during the peak portion of hurricane season (August - October), the clockwise-rotating eddy that is attempting to cut off from the Loop Current this week will be fully separated from the Loop Current. The separation of this eddy will substantially reduce the possibility that significant amounts of oil will reach the Florida Keys and Southeast U.S. coast, since the Loop Current will be much farther south, flowing more due east towards the Keys from the Yucatan Channel. Oil moving southwards from the spill location due to a hurricane's winds will tend to get trapped in the 250-mile wide eddy, potentially covering most of the surface of the eddy with oil. Thus we might have a 250-mile wide spinning oil slick in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico for days or weeks after a hurricane. This could potentially have a significant warming effect on the Gulf waters, since the oil is dark and will absorb sunlight, and the oil will prevent evaporation from cooling the waters underneath it. Since Loop Current eddies contain a large amount of very warm water that extend to great depth, they often act as high-octane fuel for hurricanes that pass over. The rapid intensification of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita were both aided by the passage of those storms over Loop Current eddies. Thus the warming of the Loop Current Eddy by oil pulled into it by a passing hurricane or tropical storm could lead to explosive intensification of the next hurricane that passes over the eddy.

The Loop Current Eddy will move slowly westwards toward Texas at about 4 miles per day after it fully cuts off. When it reaches the shallow waters near the Texas coast in early 2011, the eddy will turn northwards and gradually dissipate, By then, I expect that the vast majority of the oil in the eddy will have dispersed, sunk, or evaporated.

Storm surge and oil
One of the more unnerving prospects to consider if a hurricane hits the oil spill is what the hurricane's storm surge might do with the oil/dispersant mixture. The foul mix would ride inland on top of the surge, potentially fouling residential areas and hundreds of square miles of sensitive ecosystems with the toxic stew. The impacts of the oil and dispersant on vegetation may be too low to cause significant damage, since the hurricane would dilute the mixture with a large amount of sea water, and wash much of the toxic brew off the vegetation with heavy rain. We do have some limited experience with oil spills during Hurricane Katrina's storm surge to shed light on the subject. Katrina's storm surge caused over 8 million gallons of oil to spill into the storm surge waters. The largest spill occurred when the storm surge hit the Murphy Oil refinery in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana. According to Santella et al. (2010), The refinery was inundated with 12 feet of water, and a partially filled 250,000-barrel above ground storage tank was dislodged and ruptured, releasing 25,100 barrels (1.05 million gallons) of mixed crude oil. Dikes surrounding the oil tanks at the refinery were flooded and breached and oil from the spill covered a residential area of approximately one square mile affecting approximately 1,800 homes. Front-end loaders were needed to remove the oily sediments from the area. A class action lawsuit resulted from the spill, ending in a $330 million settlement with a buy-out of properties closest to the spill and graded compensation in a larger zone. Katrina also caused a 139,000-gallon crude oil leak from a 20-inch pipeline at Shell Nairn Pipeline Company in Port Sulphur, Louisiana. Approximately 10,500 gallons of the spill reached the shoreline and coastal marshes, and only 10,700 gallons were recovered. This release resulted in a $5.5 million class action settlement to nearby property owners (http://www.nairnclaims.com). I haven't been able to find any information on how the marshlands fared after getting oiled by this spill.

Katrina's storm surge also destroyed an oil tank at Chevron's Empire facility, releasing oil into a retention pond in a region surrounded by marshland. Three and half weeks later, Hurricane Rita's storm surge hit the oily mess in the retention pond, washing 4,000 - 8,000 gallons of oil into nearby marshlands, which were heavily or moderately oiled. According to the EPA and Merten et al. (2008), the oiled marshlands were set on fire six weeks after the spill, resulting in 80-90% removal of the oil and contaminated vegetation. The marshland recovered fairly quickly, as seen in aerial photos taken five months after the burn (Figure 1)--though oil still remained in the roots, affecting burrowing crabs and the wildlife that feed on them. So, oiled marshes can recover somewhat from a storm-surge driven oiling, but it is uncertain if burning could be successfully used to restore a 100+ square mile region of marshland oiled by the storm surge from a major hurricane. Another big unknown is how toxic BP's dispersants might be to the vegetation.


Figure 1. Upper left: oiled marshlands as seen on October 10, 2005, near Chevron's Empire facility, after the storm surges of Katrina and Rita. Right: The marshlands on March 16, 2006, five months after the controlled burn. The marshlands had largely recovered. Bottom: the controlled burn in progress (October 12, 2005.) Image credit: Merten, A.A., Henry, C., and J. Michel, 2008, Decision-making process to use in-situ burning to restore an oiled intermediate marsh following hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2008 International Oil Spill Conference.

Wind and oil
The winds from a hurricane hurl ocean sea spray miles inland, often causing major defoliation and tree damage far beyond where the storm surge penetrates. For example, Category 2 Hurricane Bob of 1991 blew sea spray inland 4 miles (7 km) inland over Cape Cod. The salt deposited defoliated nearly all the deciduous trees along the coast. Kerr, 2000 document the case of Category 2 Typhoon Gay of November 23, 1992, which hit the 15-km wide island of Guam with 95 - 100 mph winds. Interaction with another typhoon disrupted Gay's thunderstorm activity, resulting in a nearly rainless typhoon for Guam. As a result, heavy amounts of salt coated the entire island, resulting in nearly complete defoliation. The salt didn't actually kill many plants, and the island re-greened within a year. The Category 3 New England Hurricane of 1938 was able to cause salt damage to trees as far as 45 miles inland, due to wind-blown sea spray. Thus we can anticipate that a hurricane passing over the oil spill will be able to hurl oil and toxic dispersants many miles inland during landfall. In regions where little rain falls, the concentrations of the oil and dispersants may be a problem. Again, we have no experience with this sort of situation, so the potential risks are unknown.

Rain and oil
Hurricanes evaporate huge amounts of water from the ocean and convert it to rain. In general, we do not need to worry about oil dissolving into the rain, since the oil and water don't mix. Furthermore, about 50-70% of the oil that is going to evaporate from the spill does so in the first 12 hours that the oil reaches the surface, so the volatile oil compounds that could potentially get dissolved into rain water won't be around. Hurricanes are known to carry sea salt and microscopic marine plankton hundreds of miles inland, since the strong updrafts of the storm can put these substances high in the troposphere where they can be carried far inland as the hurricane makes landfall. The Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Nora of 1997, whose remnants passed over Southern California, brought traces of sea salt and marine microorganisms to clouds over the central U.S. similarly, we can expect any landfalling hurricanes that pass over the oil spill to pick up traces of Gulf of Mexico crude and transport it hundreds of miles inland. However, I doubt that these traces would be detectable in rainwater except by laboratory analysis, and would not cause any harm to plants or animals.

Lightning and oil
Could a lightning strike from a hurricane ignite oil from the spill, and the hurricane's winds hurl the flaming oil inland, creating a fiery maelstrom of water, wind, and flame? This would make a great scene in a typical bad Hollywood disaster movie, but it's not going to happen with the universe's current laws of physics. Lightning could set an oil slick on fire, in regions where the oil is most dense and very fresh. About 50-70% of the evaporation of oil's most flammable volatile compounds occurs in the first 12 hours after release, so fresh oil is the most likely to ignite. However, the winds of a hurricane are so fierce that any surface oil slick of flaming oil would quickly be disrupted and doused by wave action and sea spray. Heavy rain would further dampen any lightning-caused oil slick fires.

Bringing oil at depth to the surface
Hurricanes act like huge blenders that plow through the ocean, thoroughly mixing surface waters to depths as great as 200 meters (650 feet), and pulling waters from depth to the surface. Thus if sub-surface plumes of oil are located within 200 meters of the surface, a hurricane could potentially bring them to the surface. However, the huge sub-surface plumes of oil found by the research vessel Pelican were at depths of 2300 - 4200 feet, and a hurricane will not affect the ocean circulation at those depths.

Comparisons of the Deepwater Horizon blowout with Exxon Valdez
One footnote to consider when comparing the Deepwater Horizon blowout to the disastrous March 24, 1989 Exxon Valdez spill: the amount of oil spilled in that disaster is usually quoted as 11 million gallons (260,000 barrels.) However, this is the number given by Exxon Mobil, and independent assessments by the State of Alaska came up with a much higher figure--24 to 36 million gallons, with state investigators stressing that the lower number was very unlikely. I'd be inclined to believe Exxon grossly understated the actual severity of the spill, much like BP is attempting to do with the Deepwater Horizon blowout. Steven Wereley, an associate professor at Purdue University, used a computer analysis (particle image velocimetry) to arrive at a rate of 95,000 barrels (4 million gallons) per day since the April 20 blowout, nearly 20 times greater than the 5,000 barrel a day estimate BP and government scientists have been citing. If he is correct, and the State of Alaska's figures on the Exxon Valdez disaster are correct, the Deepwater Horizon blowout so far has spilled five times the oil Exxon Valdez did.

References
Gundlach, E.R., Finkelstein, K.J., and J.L. Sadd, "Impact and Persistence of Ixtoc I Oil on the South Texas Coast", Proceedings: 1981 Oil Spill Conference (Prevention, Behavior, Control, Cleanup) March 2-5, 1981, Atlanta, GA. p 477-485.

Kerr, A.M., 2000, "Defoliation of an island (Guam, Mariana
Archipelago, Western Pacific Ocean) following a saltspray-laden
dry typhoon," Journal of Tropical Ecology 16:895901.

Merten, A.A., Henry, C., and J. Michel, 2008, Decision-making process to use in-situ burning to restore an oiled intermediate marsh following hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2008 International Oil Spill Conference.

Payne, J.R. and D. McNabb, Jr., "Weathering of Petroleum in the Marine Environment", Marine Technology Society Journal 18, 3, Third Quarter 1984.

Santella, N., Steinberg, L.J., and H. Sengul, 2010,Petroleum and Hazardous Material Releases from Industrial Facilities Associated with Hurricane Katrina, Risk Analyis, Volume 30, Issue 4, Pages 635-649, Published Online: 16 Mar 2010

90L
I've been focused more on the oil spill, and will have just a limited discussion of (90L) off the South Carolina coast. The storm has changed little over the past 24 hours, and doesn't have time to develop into a subtropical storm, before an approaching trough of low pressure pulls the system out to sea Thursday and Friday. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 90L a less than 10% chance of developing into a depression or tropical/subtropical storm, and anticipates not writing any more special advisories on 90L. There presently isn't much to be concerned with about this storm, though Bermuda may get more heavy rain and high seas from the storm late this week as it moves out to sea. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on 90L.

Central American disturbance
An area of disturbed weather has developed just off the Pacific coast of Mexico. The disturbance will bring heavy rains to Central America during the remainder of the week, potentially bringing serious flooding rains to portions of Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. There is the potential for disturbed weather accompanying the disturbance to push into the Western Caribbean early next week and pose a threat to develop into a tropical depression. While there is high wind shear over the northern Caribbean, shear should be low enough to allow development should the disturbance stay in the southern reaches of the Caribbean. Any storm that develops in the Caribbean in the coming week would get steered to the northeast and will not pose a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1191 - 1141

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45Blog Index

LB is looking best it has thus far, down to 1004mb



Dry air is gone as well.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


My philosophy is admitting when your predictions are incorrect and the reasons….but do not brag when you are correct.

Good philosphy, if I have broken it in the past (dont think I have but who knows with me sometimes haha) I will remember this for the future.
Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640
Billy Nungesser for President!!!!!!!!!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

yea and I do wish I had the calm nerve that you have sometimes haha. Any new thoughts on 90E. Could be a tricky one and curious what you think.


Based on the latest infrared channel, it was easy to make out the mid-level center, and I suspect there is something at the surface but with few surface observations and scatterometer, visible imagery will have to do. Environmental conditions are favorable for the continued development of 90E. The models at this point are all over the place but my thinking is 90E isnt going NW for any long substantial duration due to a number of reasons - below. The system should be steered NEward in the long-run into SE Mexico. There have been speculations of a piece of energy breaking off and entering the Caribbean, well there is an area of low pressure over Honduras as we speak, another piece just sitting offshore El Salvador, so these might be the areas models are picking up on. Conditions in the Caribbean will marginally favorable and anything wanting to developing will have to keep south of 20N. Of more concern is the amount of rainfall that is expected over CA which models forsee exceeding 15 inches.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1186. Drakoen
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


My philosophy is admitting when your predictions are incorrect and the reasons….but do not brag when you are correct.


Agreed
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1185. pottery
Quoting JamesSA:
On the Oceaneering CNN feed they are showing one of the ROV's pressure washing mud and oil off the bottom of some large piece of equipment down there. I wander what that is all about? I hope that isn't 'plan C' being prepared.

Also the BOP and the leak on top is now totally obscured. It is fascinating to watch them work at any rate.

I missed the thing when it started to get obscured so I dont know.
A lot of turbulence now, 'debris' moving around.
Did something rupture?
The other ROV's are not too concerned!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24064
Anyone blogging from an Ipad?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1183. Patrap


After tour, Jindal and Nungesser demand action from BP

After a one day break, Gov. Bobby Jindal was back on the water to get a firsthand look at the oil spill response. Jindal said oil has impacted 100 miles of coastline. By air and boat he inspected the mouth of the Mississippi River.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


My philosophy is admitting when your predictions are incorrect and the reasons….but do not brag when you are correct.


Agreed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
haha... blogging on the wii is cool!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
It is good to have a backbone made of steel or this blog would eat you alive, lol.


My philosophy is admitting when your predictions are incorrect and the reasons….but do not brag when you are correct.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
What are the thoughts of the board on this comment that I found from a fellow Floridian and their experience today?
Link
.
.
.
Hi all,

Making this quick, don't feel well. About 4:15pm or so eastern, coming back from Tampa, Florida north on Veteran's Expressway...about 7 miles perhaps from SR 54...it sprinkled some gray watery and solid black oil on my car. Thought it was bugs, but so fast did not make sense and windshield wipers just smeared it. Got out of car at store and looked on the paint and solid black dots on my car...I touch? huh? it's wet? it's OIL!!!!!

I had several folks verify it before I sprayed it off and it came off easier than the few love bugs. Two hours later still wet like OIL! nope, not water, smell it, OIL!!!

Anyone on Gulf try not to smear touch it as it is harder to wash off if it happens to you. Bands of storm clouds coming this way from Gulf of Mexico...has not actually rained at least where I have been, just ran through the sprinkle. I smell it now I am inside the house...it's just hard for me to believe also. One can think of a other things...oh maybe it was a vehicle in front of you...there was no vehicles near me at the time. So coincidence oil spill in the gulf and it rains oil on my car? okay believe what you will...but I know my gut and what happened to me, what I saw, others witnessed, I took pics of (sorry don't know how to post them, and it photos could be debatable anyway, take my word or not whichever...but we are in deep hocky doo folks.

I've actually had this problem when following a very sick car ahead of me...
And, no, it isn't going to rain oil. Absurd, at best.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1178. JamesSA
On the Oceaneering CNN feed they are showing one of the ROV's pressure washing mud and oil off the bottom of some large piece of equipment down there. I wander what that is all about? I hope that isn't 'plan C' being prepared.

Also the BOP and the leak on top is now totally obscured. It is fascinating to watch them work at any rate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1177. Patrap
CNN LIVE FEED ROV Windows
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Quoting pottery:
The live video of the top of the BOP is looking nbad right now.

How so...dont have it up. Just getting hard to see or just looking like more and more is coming out?
Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640
1175. pottery
The live video of the top of the BOP is looking bad right now.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24064
How much lunger will it take for ascat to past 90E i see its almost to the area already
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
It is good to have a backbone made of steel or this blog would eat you alive, lol.


Given that I likewise have a "backbone made of steel", I agree with this.

Honestly though, I'm really failing to see why so many people aren't like us in that regard. Seems terribly easy, doesn't it?

Though obviously not for everyone, I suppose. That's already been evidenced.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
Edit Failed!
What i had was not needed so I got rid of it. Sorry about my rant.
Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640
1171. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
ya I was surprised at the naming as well of Joel.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
It is good to have a backbone made of steel or this blog would eat you alive, lol.

yea and I do wish I had the calm nerve that you have sometimes haha. Any new thoughts on 90E. Could be a tricky one and curious what you think.
Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640
1169. pottery
Quoting theshepherd:


;>)

Hello ol' man...

You obviously missed the International News Broadcast, concerning the fact that I have shed some 37 years. Inexplicable, but there you go.
I just forgot to change my avatar, Ol' Man yourself!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24064
BTW He has already shown his old self.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1167. Ossqss
1093 , Did ya see Carville?

Carville rant

They did make mention to this also

Could Secret Saudi Spill Hold Fix for Gulf Slick?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1166. Patrap
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Looks like your signing off Pat. Have a good night sleep and look forward to reading your posts in the morning. Good night.


Been a better day..hopefully the Top Kill will be a success.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Hi extreme...I know there is a site that shows when invests are deactivated. Do you have a link to it? This is what I am going off of....
Link


Yeah that is the most official website of any other one I can think of (besides the NHC of course). Looks like 90L is still active after all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Interesting, lol. 90L listed as a 1004mb high pressure center, is that an error? Click the fronts tab. 90L is deepening a bit.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number FOUR
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION JOEL (16-20092010)
4:00 AM Réunion May 27 2010
========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Subtropical Depression Joel (997 hPa) located at 25.9S 44.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The subtropical system is reported as moving east at 4 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 26.0S 45.3E - 45 knots (SUBTROPICAL)
24 HRS: 26.3S 46.1E - 30 knots (SUBTROPICAL)
48 HRS: 28.7S 46.7E - 20 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
=======================
The eye of the system has disappeared due to less favorable upper level conditions. Pressure of the system is high due to the small size of the system and high environmental pressures The system begins to undergo a southwesterly constraint forecast to increase progressively. The system is expected to weaken quite rapidly due to its small size. The system is forecast to track ridge locate over the northern part of Madagascar during the next 12-24 hours, then southeast and southward as a ridge rebuilds east of


Wow...they named it
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What I had here was not needed. Sorry about the rant. Rough day.
Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640
It is good to have a backbone made of steel or this blog would eat you alive, lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1160. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number FOUR
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION JOEL (16-20092010)
4:00 AM Réunion May 27 2010
========================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Subtropical Depression Joel (997 hPa) located at 25.9S 44.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 80 knots. The subtropical system is reported as moving east at 4 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 26.0S 45.3E - 45 knots (SUBTROPICAL)
24 HRS: 26.3S 46.1E - 30 knots (SUBTROPICAL)
48 HRS: 28.7S 46.7E - 20 knots (Depression se Comblant)

Additional Information
=======================
The eye of the system has disappeared due to less favorable upper level conditions. Pressure of the system is high due to the small size of the system and high environmental pressures The system begins to undergo a southwesterly constraint forecast to increase progressively. The system is expected to weaken quite rapidly due to its small size. The system is forecast to track ridge locate over the northern part of Madagascar during the next 12-24 hours, then southeast and southward as a ridge rebuilds east of the system.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SouthALWX:

It was directed at whom he quoted, I assumed.


Me unfortunatly. He's been on my ignore list for a year now.. We went at it after I predicted Bill to clip New England, and I was right with that forecast.
I think it was the remnants of Fred that got him ignored. I kept tracking and posting maps on it because it still had a chance to regenerate, so he slammed me on it and instead of risking to get my first ban, I ignored him.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:
I'm pretty sure 90L has been deactivated and no longer exists. Even if it is on the navy site and such, they are often slow at removing stuff from their site.


Hi extreme...I know there is a site that shows when invests are deactivated. Do you have a link to it? This is what I am going off of....
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
90E should be very interesting to watch. Numerous scenarios I can think of with this one. Crossover systems (if it becomes one of those) can be fascinating.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I thought I would come on here tonight to hear news about the Top Kill efforts, 2 hours @ 5pm like was advertised. 24 hrs now??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SouthALWX:

It was directed at whom he quoted, I assumed.
Oh I don't know, I really wasn't paying attention.

Good Night!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
90L still offically an Invest. Correct?


Yes it is
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7397
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
He's not being a jerk. It wasn't directed at 456.

It was directed at whom he quoted, I assumed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:
It's an arguable matter, just like last years suspected unnamed TS (90L in May) that hit the Gulf Coast. I'm in the camp with Weather456, Levi that 90L is currently Subtropical, the evidence is there on the graphs and maps. Weather456 is a features blogger, so the evidence is proven with a strong point.


Whether it is subtropical or nontropical is rather irrelevant. In the scheme of things it doesn't matter either way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like your signing off Pat. Have a good night sleep and look forward to reading your posts in the morning. Good night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:
I'm pretty sure 90L has been deactivated and no longer exists. Even if it is on the navy site and such, they are often slow at removing stuff from their site.


atcf just sent out new coordinates on it just 1 hour ago, so I doubt it
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7397
Quoting Weather456:


That is all in a days work. I'm 21 and satisfy with my forecasting skill of 90L and the tropics thus far.


You are 21? You present alot more maturity than some, but then I look at your avatar. Here is a word of advice, some of those people that laugh and say 90L is not subtropical, cannot give you a professional explanation as to why. Think about that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm pretty sure 90L has been deactivated and no longer exists. Even if it is on the navy site and such, they are often slow at removing stuff from their site.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting rinkrat61:
Friend I am sorry but this is very easy for me. I am sick from knowing what is going on and and what they tell the world because most don`t understand. The only hope they have is the rigs drilling down to the production zone. They know that. You said it was a gas bubble, well that bubble blew the well clean and is still blowing out. Pretty good bubble.


After watching that technical video (post 760) a few times, I finally get what they are trying to do. They are trying to slow pump the mud, and are counting on it to "fight the flow of the oil," in the terms of the VP, i.e. to sink in globs all the way down to TD and hope it seeps into and plugs the annular leak and the formation at 18,000 ft and then begins to fill up the casing. That is what the animation of the mud operation is showing - red mud filling the well bore from the bottom up.

They are running the risk of plugging the riser, which would blow it apart, but the next two alternatives involve cutting it off, so "no harm done."

Good luck to them. I get why they need a 35,000 hp engine to pump the pump into a manifold that puts out 15,000 psi ... that mud must be very very dense to have any chance of sinking through that flow.

WTO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1145. Patrap










Edited video from BP shows submersibles at work on the blowout preventer
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127636
Quoting Weather456:


That could have never had happened. There was no ocean heat content to support that. I also pointed out last week that the maximum hurricane potential was around a category 1 hurricane over the SW Atlantic, and tropical systems, if 90L had become one, rarely reach their full potential. Also 90L was never expected to become tropical, just subtropical or remain non-tropical.

wouldnt say impossible. according to COLA charts, 980 was possible. but I agree 100% that it was highly unlikely, but SSTs, hypothetically, could support a cat 2 per the charts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Apparently.


;>)

Hello ol' man...
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 9 Comments: 10077
It's an arguable matter, just like last years suspected unnamed TS (90L in May) that hit the Gulf Coast. I'm in the camp with Weather456, Levi that 90L is currently Subtropical, the evidence is there on the graphs and maps. Weather456 is a features blogger, so the evidence is proven with a strong point.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1141. pottery
Quoting rinkrat61:
Friend I am sorry but this is very easy for me. I am sick from knowing what is going on and and what they tell the world because most don`t understand. The only hope they have is the rigs drilling down to the production zone. They know that. You said it was a gas bubble, well that bubble blew the well clean and is still blowing out. Pretty good bubble.

Yep. You have good points there too.
As I say, I am no expert and I am going by what I see and read where I can.
Not liking the view of the amount of oil/mud coming out of those leaks though.
The pump-ship can deliver about 2500 gal/min of mud. You think what we are seeing is more than that leaking out?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24064

Viewing: 1191 - 1141

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Light Thunderstorms and Rain
63 °F
Light Thunderstorm Rain