What would a hurricane do to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:57 PM GMT on May 26, 2010

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Hurricane season is upon us next week, and the Deepwater Horizon blowout is still spewing a geyser of oil into the Gulf of Mexico. With this year's hurricane season likely to be a severe one, with much above average numbers of hurricanes and intense hurricanes, we have the unwholesome prospect of a hurricane churning through the largest accidental oil spill in history. A hurricane has never passed over a sizable oil spill before, so there are a lot of unknowns about what might happen. The closest call came in 1979, after the greatest accidental oil spill in history, the massive Ixtoc I blowout. That disaster dumped 3 million barrels (126 million gallons) of oil into the Southern Gulf of Mexico between June 1979 and March 1980. Category 1 Hurricane Henri passed just north of the main portion of the oil spill on September 16 and 17, generating 15 foot seas and southwest winds of 15 - 25 knots over the spill region on the 16th. Interestingly, the NOAA/AOML report on the spill found that the winds did not blow long enough or strongly enough to control the direction of oil flow, as evidenced by the fact that the wind direction was often 180° to the direction of plume flow. The main impact of the wind was to dilute the oil and weather it, converting it to a thick "mousse".

Oil and beaches
During the Ixtoc spill, prevailing currents circulating clockwise from the blowout carried a 60-mile by 70-mile patch of sheen containing a 300 foot by 500 foot patch of heavy crude 900 miles to the South Texas coast. On August 6, 1979, tarballs from the spill impacted a 17 mile stretch of Texas beach. Mousse patches impacted the shoreline north of Port Mansfield Channel on August 15 and again on August 18. On August 24, mousse impacted shoreline south of Aransas Pass. By August 26, most of North Padre Island was covered with moderate amounts of oil. By September 1, all of the south Texas coast had been impacted by oil. However, Hurricane Henri formed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on September 17 - 18. At the same time, a strong non-tropical low pressure system formed along the Texas coast, bringing gale-force winds and rainfall amounts in excess of ten inches to the coast. The combination of swells from Hurricane Henri and wind-driven waves from the non-tropical low pressure system scoured the oiled beaches of over 90% of their oil (Gundlach et al., 1981). The oil washed over the barrier islands into the estuaries behind them, and much of it sank to the bottom of the ocean. According to NOAA, impacts to the estuaries were minor. However, Payne and McNabb (1984) noted that selected regions of the coast, most of the beached oil was heavily resistant to transport during storms. Oil/sediment mats were ultimately covered by clean sand, but the oil/sediment mats were re-exposed and washed into the lagoon behind the barrier islands one year later when Category 3 Hurricane Allen battered the coast. No transport of the oil/sediment mats from the lagoon bottom was observed in the 3-year period following Hurricane Allen.

So, the Ixtoc blowout experience shows us that if a sandy beach is already fouled by oil, a hurricane can help clean up the mess. However, the situation is different along shores with marshlands, where the many shoreline plants offer crevices and tangled roots for the oil to accumulate in. A hurricane will help scour some of the oil out of marshlands, but the majority of it will probably remain stuck. This is also true of rocky beaches. Rocky shores fouled by the great Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska in 1989 have been pounded by many hurricane-strength storms over the years, but these storms were not able to clean the beaches of oil like Hurricane Henri did for Texas' beaches in 1979.

Transport of oil by hurricanes
Shores that are already fouled by oil will probably benefit from a hurricane, but the oil cleaned off of those shores then becomes someone else's problem. The strong winds and powerful ocean currents that a hurricane's winds drive will bring oil to large stretches of coast that otherwise would not have gotten oil. This is my chief concern regarding a hurricane moving through the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Consider the case of the Exxon Valdez disaster in 1989. The ill-fated tanker split open in Prince William Sound on March 24, and oil spill response crews were initially able to contain the spill behind booms and make good progress removing it. However, two days later, a powerful Gulf of Alaska storm with 70 mph winds roared through, overwhelming the containment booms and distributing the oil along a 90-mile stretch of coast. The oil went on to foul over 400 miles of Alaska coast, a far larger disaster than would have occurred than if the storm had not passed by. Similarly, a hurricane moving through the Gulf of Mexico spill will very likely make the disaster much worse, spreading out the oil over a larger region, and bringing the oil to shores that otherwise might not have seen oil. It is true that the oil will be diluted some by being spread out over a larger area, so some shores will not see a substantial oiling. But overall, a hurricane passing through the oil spill is likely to result in much higher damage to the coast.

I expect that during the peak portion of hurricane season (August - October), the clockwise-rotating eddy that is attempting to cut off from the Loop Current this week will be fully separated from the Loop Current. The separation of this eddy will substantially reduce the possibility that significant amounts of oil will reach the Florida Keys and Southeast U.S. coast, since the Loop Current will be much farther south, flowing more due east towards the Keys from the Yucatan Channel. Oil moving southwards from the spill location due to a hurricane's winds will tend to get trapped in the 250-mile wide eddy, potentially covering most of the surface of the eddy with oil. Thus we might have a 250-mile wide spinning oil slick in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico for days or weeks after a hurricane. This could potentially have a significant warming effect on the Gulf waters, since the oil is dark and will absorb sunlight, and the oil will prevent evaporation from cooling the waters underneath it. Since Loop Current eddies contain a large amount of very warm water that extend to great depth, they often act as high-octane fuel for hurricanes that pass over. The rapid intensification of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita were both aided by the passage of those storms over Loop Current eddies. Thus the warming of the Loop Current Eddy by oil pulled into it by a passing hurricane or tropical storm could lead to explosive intensification of the next hurricane that passes over the eddy.

The Loop Current Eddy will move slowly westwards toward Texas at about 4 miles per day after it fully cuts off. When it reaches the shallow waters near the Texas coast in early 2011, the eddy will turn northwards and gradually dissipate, By then, I expect that the vast majority of the oil in the eddy will have dispersed, sunk, or evaporated.

Storm surge and oil
One of the more unnerving prospects to consider if a hurricane hits the oil spill is what the hurricane's storm surge might do with the oil/dispersant mixture. The foul mix would ride inland on top of the surge, potentially fouling residential areas and hundreds of square miles of sensitive ecosystems with the toxic stew. The impacts of the oil and dispersant on vegetation may be too low to cause significant damage, since the hurricane would dilute the mixture with a large amount of sea water, and wash much of the toxic brew off the vegetation with heavy rain. We do have some limited experience with oil spills during Hurricane Katrina's storm surge to shed light on the subject. Katrina's storm surge caused over 8 million gallons of oil to spill into the storm surge waters. The largest spill occurred when the storm surge hit the Murphy Oil refinery in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana. According to Santella et al. (2010), The refinery was inundated with 12 feet of water, and a partially filled 250,000-barrel above ground storage tank was dislodged and ruptured, releasing 25,100 barrels (1.05 million gallons) of mixed crude oil. Dikes surrounding the oil tanks at the refinery were flooded and breached and oil from the spill covered a residential area of approximately one square mile affecting approximately 1,800 homes. Front-end loaders were needed to remove the oily sediments from the area. A class action lawsuit resulted from the spill, ending in a $330 million settlement with a buy-out of properties closest to the spill and graded compensation in a larger zone. Katrina also caused a 139,000-gallon crude oil leak from a 20-inch pipeline at Shell Nairn Pipeline Company in Port Sulphur, Louisiana. Approximately 10,500 gallons of the spill reached the shoreline and coastal marshes, and only 10,700 gallons were recovered. This release resulted in a $5.5 million class action settlement to nearby property owners (http://www.nairnclaims.com). I haven't been able to find any information on how the marshlands fared after getting oiled by this spill.

Katrina's storm surge also destroyed an oil tank at Chevron's Empire facility, releasing oil into a retention pond in a region surrounded by marshland. Three and half weeks later, Hurricane Rita's storm surge hit the oily mess in the retention pond, washing 4,000 - 8,000 gallons of oil into nearby marshlands, which were heavily or moderately oiled. According to the EPA and Merten et al. (2008), the oiled marshlands were set on fire six weeks after the spill, resulting in 80-90% removal of the oil and contaminated vegetation. The marshland recovered fairly quickly, as seen in aerial photos taken five months after the burn (Figure 1)--though oil still remained in the roots, affecting burrowing crabs and the wildlife that feed on them. So, oiled marshes can recover somewhat from a storm-surge driven oiling, but it is uncertain if burning could be successfully used to restore a 100+ square mile region of marshland oiled by the storm surge from a major hurricane. Another big unknown is how toxic BP's dispersants might be to the vegetation.


Figure 1. Upper left: oiled marshlands as seen on October 10, 2005, near Chevron's Empire facility, after the storm surges of Katrina and Rita. Right: The marshlands on March 16, 2006, five months after the controlled burn. The marshlands had largely recovered. Bottom: the controlled burn in progress (October 12, 2005.) Image credit: Merten, A.A., Henry, C., and J. Michel, 2008, Decision-making process to use in-situ burning to restore an oiled intermediate marsh following hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2008 International Oil Spill Conference.

Wind and oil
The winds from a hurricane hurl ocean sea spray miles inland, often causing major defoliation and tree damage far beyond where the storm surge penetrates. For example, Category 2 Hurricane Bob of 1991 blew sea spray inland 4 miles (7 km) inland over Cape Cod. The salt deposited defoliated nearly all the deciduous trees along the coast. Kerr, 2000 document the case of Category 2 Typhoon Gay of November 23, 1992, which hit the 15-km wide island of Guam with 95 - 100 mph winds. Interaction with another typhoon disrupted Gay's thunderstorm activity, resulting in a nearly rainless typhoon for Guam. As a result, heavy amounts of salt coated the entire island, resulting in nearly complete defoliation. The salt didn't actually kill many plants, and the island re-greened within a year. The Category 3 New England Hurricane of 1938 was able to cause salt damage to trees as far as 45 miles inland, due to wind-blown sea spray. Thus we can anticipate that a hurricane passing over the oil spill will be able to hurl oil and toxic dispersants many miles inland during landfall. In regions where little rain falls, the concentrations of the oil and dispersants may be a problem. Again, we have no experience with this sort of situation, so the potential risks are unknown.

Rain and oil
Hurricanes evaporate huge amounts of water from the ocean and convert it to rain. In general, we do not need to worry about oil dissolving into the rain, since the oil and water don't mix. Furthermore, about 50-70% of the oil that is going to evaporate from the spill does so in the first 12 hours that the oil reaches the surface, so the volatile oil compounds that could potentially get dissolved into rain water won't be around. Hurricanes are known to carry sea salt and microscopic marine plankton hundreds of miles inland, since the strong updrafts of the storm can put these substances high in the troposphere where they can be carried far inland as the hurricane makes landfall. The Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Nora of 1997, whose remnants passed over Southern California, brought traces of sea salt and marine microorganisms to clouds over the central U.S. similarly, we can expect any landfalling hurricanes that pass over the oil spill to pick up traces of Gulf of Mexico crude and transport it hundreds of miles inland. However, I doubt that these traces would be detectable in rainwater except by laboratory analysis, and would not cause any harm to plants or animals.

Lightning and oil
Could a lightning strike from a hurricane ignite oil from the spill, and the hurricane's winds hurl the flaming oil inland, creating a fiery maelstrom of water, wind, and flame? This would make a great scene in a typical bad Hollywood disaster movie, but it's not going to happen with the universe's current laws of physics. Lightning could set an oil slick on fire, in regions where the oil is most dense and very fresh. About 50-70% of the evaporation of oil's most flammable volatile compounds occurs in the first 12 hours after release, so fresh oil is the most likely to ignite. However, the winds of a hurricane are so fierce that any surface oil slick of flaming oil would quickly be disrupted and doused by wave action and sea spray. Heavy rain would further dampen any lightning-caused oil slick fires.

Bringing oil at depth to the surface
Hurricanes act like huge blenders that plow through the ocean, thoroughly mixing surface waters to depths as great as 200 meters (650 feet), and pulling waters from depth to the surface. Thus if sub-surface plumes of oil are located within 200 meters of the surface, a hurricane could potentially bring them to the surface. However, the huge sub-surface plumes of oil found by the research vessel Pelican were at depths of 2300 - 4200 feet, and a hurricane will not affect the ocean circulation at those depths.

Comparisons of the Deepwater Horizon blowout with Exxon Valdez
One footnote to consider when comparing the Deepwater Horizon blowout to the disastrous March 24, 1989 Exxon Valdez spill: the amount of oil spilled in that disaster is usually quoted as 11 million gallons (260,000 barrels.) However, this is the number given by Exxon Mobil, and independent assessments by the State of Alaska came up with a much higher figure--24 to 36 million gallons, with state investigators stressing that the lower number was very unlikely. I'd be inclined to believe Exxon grossly understated the actual severity of the spill, much like BP is attempting to do with the Deepwater Horizon blowout. Steven Wereley, an associate professor at Purdue University, used a computer analysis (particle image velocimetry) to arrive at a rate of 95,000 barrels (4 million gallons) per day since the April 20 blowout, nearly 20 times greater than the 5,000 barrel a day estimate BP and government scientists have been citing. If he is correct, and the State of Alaska's figures on the Exxon Valdez disaster are correct, the Deepwater Horizon blowout so far has spilled five times the oil Exxon Valdez did.

References
Gundlach, E.R., Finkelstein, K.J., and J.L. Sadd, "Impact and Persistence of Ixtoc I Oil on the South Texas Coast", Proceedings: 1981 Oil Spill Conference (Prevention, Behavior, Control, Cleanup) March 2-5, 1981, Atlanta, GA. p 477-485.

Kerr, A.M., 2000, "Defoliation of an island (Guam, Mariana
Archipelago, Western Pacific Ocean) following a saltspray-laden
dry typhoon," Journal of Tropical Ecology 16:895901.

Merten, A.A., Henry, C., and J. Michel, 2008, Decision-making process to use in-situ burning to restore an oiled intermediate marsh following hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2008 International Oil Spill Conference.

Payne, J.R. and D. McNabb, Jr., "Weathering of Petroleum in the Marine Environment", Marine Technology Society Journal 18, 3, Third Quarter 1984.

Santella, N., Steinberg, L.J., and H. Sengul, 2010,Petroleum and Hazardous Material Releases from Industrial Facilities Associated with Hurricane Katrina, Risk Analyis, Volume 30, Issue 4, Pages 635-649, Published Online: 16 Mar 2010

90L
I've been focused more on the oil spill, and will have just a limited discussion of (90L) off the South Carolina coast. The storm has changed little over the past 24 hours, and doesn't have time to develop into a subtropical storm, before an approaching trough of low pressure pulls the system out to sea Thursday and Friday. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 90L a less than 10% chance of developing into a depression or tropical/subtropical storm, and anticipates not writing any more special advisories on 90L. There presently isn't much to be concerned with about this storm, though Bermuda may get more heavy rain and high seas from the storm late this week as it moves out to sea. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on 90L.

Central American disturbance
An area of disturbed weather has developed just off the Pacific coast of Mexico. The disturbance will bring heavy rains to Central America during the remainder of the week, potentially bringing serious flooding rains to portions of Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. There is the potential for disturbed weather accompanying the disturbance to push into the Western Caribbean early next week and pose a threat to develop into a tropical depression. While there is high wind shear over the northern Caribbean, shear should be low enough to allow development should the disturbance stay in the southern reaches of the Caribbean. Any storm that develops in the Caribbean in the coming week would get steered to the northeast and will not pose a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

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1391. xcool
Stormchaser2007 .im email you
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1390. Drakoen
90E may not develop in the EPAC. Looks like the energy will get focused in the Caribbean according to the GFS giving us Alex and a decent looking system for May at that.
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Quoting xcool:





How'd you get it already?


Im stuck on 0 hours.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1388. xcool
2 storm in cab woww
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
UN LESS 90E IS ARE Caribbean STORM
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1386. Drakoen
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
00z GFS brings the majority of 90E's vort max ashore by tomorrow to be transferred to the Caribbean on Friday.

What do you think Drak? Plausible?


Yea based on what we are seeing already on cimss 850mb vorticity maps. We will also see a big lift in the subtropical jet stream as the upper level high comes into the Caribbean
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1385. Patrap
Top Kill Technical Brief
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
1384. xcool



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
ncep is not updating the GFS for me at all

Still stuck on 60 hours
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1382. xcool


new ngp .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1381. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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1380. xcool



gfs 78..next ngp
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
GFS brings "Alex" through the Bahamas at around 90 hours.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1378. xcool
alexhurricane1991 yeah..
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00z GFS brings the majority of 90E's vort max ashore by tomorrow to be transferred to the Caribbean on Friday.

What do you think Drak? Plausible?
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
Quoting xcool:
alexhurricane1991 HEY YEAH ...NGP COME SOON.
Hey xcool lets see if the nogaps agrees with the gfs.
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1375. xcool
alexhurricane1991 HEY YEAH ...NGP COME SOON.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1374. Drakoen
GFS shows a nice system at 60hrs
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Gfs says we will have alex lets see what the other models say tonight.
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60 hours

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1371. xcool



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Flooding rain in Honduras/El Salvador is never good news.
Anyway, goodnight!
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Quoting atmoaggie:
In the BP cam the water suddenly got pretty cloudy, seems.

Could just be another light, illuminating what was clear under different lighting before? (just guessing at the possibilities)
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GFS develops Alex at 60 hours west of Jamaica.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
In the BP cam the water suddenly got pretty cloudy, seems.
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I read not long ago that they had pumped 7000 barrels of mud in to the well in 6 hours, or 28000 barrels a day. The current exit velocity of the mud appears to be higher then the gas oil mix. Based upon this observation it seems that the estimates of over 25000 or so barrels of oil/gas leaking a day are unlikely. 95k would be over 3 times the current outflow.

If the flow rate of the leak has remained steady over the entirety of the incident so far then around 40 million gallons of oil/gas have if one assumes around 25k bbl per day. This would make the current incident just slightly larger then the high estimates of the Exxon Valdez disaster.

The 25k bpd number fits in well with the Ixtoc blowout which started at 30k bpd but was reduced to 10k bpd by plugging efforts. Ixtoc ran uncontrolled for nearly 300 days. Hopefully the top kill will kill the well by tomorrow (fingers crossed), just under 40 days of uncontrolled spill. At this time the disaster is much smaller then Ixtoc, but if it turns out that relief wells are the only way to stop it then this could turn out very similar in size (assuming 120 days at 25000 bpd).
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48

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1364. unf97
Yes StSimonsIslandGuy, it has been an extremely dry May here in Jax. I have measured only a total of just barely over an inch at my north Jax home. Hopefully, the the summer rain season will kick in gear soon!
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1363. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting tropics21:
think you're way over estimating you may be eating crow the end of the season
2010 will be in the top 5 all time seasons or just maybe an all time record all together
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I personally am predicting 18 storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 majors for the upcoming season. I actually completed my blog earlier today to explain my reasoning. Feel free to check it out!

1900hurricane's 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
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NCEP 36

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
1360. xcool
Top U.S. hurricane forecaster sees "hell of a year


By Tom Brown Tom Brown – Wed May 26, 4:52 pm ET
FORT LAUDERDALE, Florida (Reuters) – The threat of an above-average 2010 Atlantic hurricane season has heightened over the past month and it now promises to be "a hell of a year," a leading U.S. forecaster said Wednesday.

William Gray, the hurricane forecast pioneer who founded Colorado State University's respected storm research team, said CSU would ramp up its predictions for the 2010 season in a report due out on June 2.

"The numbers are going to go up quite high," Gray said. "This looks like a hell of a year."

A higher forecast raises the prospect the vulnerable U.S. Gulf Coast may see a repeat of the 2005 season when a record 28 storms formed, which killed nearly 4,000 people and caused an estimated $130 billion in total damages.

The list included hurricanes Katrina, which devastated New Orleans, Rita which plowed into southern Louisiana, and Wilma, the most intense storm recorded in the Atlantic basin with peak winds of 185 miles per hour.

Gray, who spoke on the sidelines of a regional hurricane conference, declined to specify the number of storms CSU will forecast in its outlook next week.

In its previous forecast, released on April 7, CSU had projected the season would produce an above-average eight hurricanes, four of which could be major.

In 2005, there were seven major hurricanes.

In its April 7 forecast, CSU also said the six-month season beginning on June 1 would likely produce 15 named tropical storms. An average Atlantic season has about 10 tropical storms, of which six become hurricanes.

Major hurricanes pack powerful sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km per hour).

Gray and Phil Klotzbach, lead forecaster with the Colorado State team, both told Reuters that forecast models showing a recent shift in wind patterns and warm tropical Atlantic waters had reinforced the likelihood that a busy hurricane season was on its way.

They referred specifically to reduced wind shear probabilities due to the dissipation of the El Nino weather phenomenon over the Pacific Ocean.

"El Nino died pretty quickly over the past couple of months," Klotzbach said.

An El Nino would normally allow wind sheer to seep into the Atlantic, disrupting storm formation and pushing embryonic hurricanes out to sea far from the oil-rig rich Gulf and the U.S. mainland.

Wind shear -- caused by a clash between prevailing upper-levels winds out of the west and lower-level easterly winds out of Africa -- can tear apart hurricanes or break up their circulation.

"Everything is setting up as a very active season," Gray said.

STORMS MAY PUSH OIL FROM SPILL INLAND

Both Gray and Klotzbach said there were too many uncertainties about the Gulf of Mexico oil spill to make any predictions about how it might come into play in the upcoming storm season.

But they were dismissive of claims the oil slick could keep storms from gathering strength and said a powerful cyclone, particularly if it comes out of the western portion of the Gulf, could propel large quantities of oil ashore in the northern Gulf.

"The counter-clockwise circulation could push oil inland, into the inland waterways, and cause a lot of problems," Klotzbach said.

Federal Emergency Management Agency director Craig Fugate, who spoke at the same hurricane conference in Fort Lauderdale on Wednesday, seemed exasperated by public attention to the oil spill as another potentially deadly hurricane season looms over the Caribbean and the U.S. Atlantic seaboard.

"It concerns me that we're talking about the oil spill and we're not talking about hurricane season," Fugate told reporters.

"Given the vulnerability of many of our coastal communities to a major landfalling hurricane, a failure to prepare for that will negate any of the work that's been done to deal with the impacts of the oil spill," he said.

"Yes there's an oil spill, yes it's devastating, and yes it has significant impacts to our coastline, to our tourism and to the environment. But do not confuse that with the deadly power of a major hurricane." he said.

(Reporting by Tom Brown; Editing by Rene Pastor)
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Barely even develops 90E.

Looks like a Caribbean storm this time around.
Yeah just saw that interesting last night it was showing a fairly strong system in the east pacific.
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1358. xcool
Stormchaser2007 .i see on GFS OOZ .WOW
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1357. Patrap
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Patrap is there any sign the stick-in-the-mud idea is working or failing?


If thats just Drill Mud or The Top Kill Pump flow..

It could be a good sign.

But I want to see the broken riser flow color.
Aint seen that view for hours.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125715
Barely even develops 90E.

Looks like a Caribbean storm this time around.
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1355. JLPR
Quoting xcool:



here my update for june ...


I guess I'm off the hook, since I don't have any color XD
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00z GFS shoots 90E into the Caribbean at 39 hours.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718
90E


From the 5 PM NHC Discussion:
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 262359
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED MAY 26 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL FAVOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THESE RAINS COULD BE ESPECIALLY PERSISTENT OVER EL SALVADOR...SOUTHERN HONDURAS...AND COASTAL GUATEMALA. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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1352. JLPR
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


here are mine

ATLANTIC SEASON NUMBER OUTLOOK

TOTAL STORMS 21 TO 23
TOTAL HURRICANES 11 TO 14
TOTAL MAJORS 5 TO 7
TOTAL CAT 5's 1 TO 3


*looks for his missing jaw*
Those are quite high :O
But by what everyone has been saying so far and a La Niña developing, who knows, but that would be crazy, I do hope your wrong. :)
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Interesting.

The 00z GFS has a weaker storm than last night so far. Out to 33 hours on StormVista.
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1350. xcool



here my update for june ...
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
1349. Drakoen
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Drakoen since you are here, is that GFS track realistic, or is the GFS being weird?


I'm not sure sure about those plots since the model graphics show it be absorbed... heading out to sea.
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1348. xcool
heyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Fixed it a few minutes ago.

Copy/paste buttons need some WD40.
Yeah saw that thanks.
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1344. Patrap
Watch live streaming video from wkrg_oil_spill at livestream.com
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Quoting reedzone:
Looks like 90E is just hugging the coastline, also has really organized over the past few hours.
Yes it does look better but still needs more organization and does 90E have a surface low?
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Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Im issuming that your talking about 90E because the picture is of the mjo forecast which is favorable if i might add


Fixed it a few minutes ago.

Copy/paste buttons need some WD40.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15718

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.