What would a hurricane do to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:57 PM GMT on May 26, 2010

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Hurricane season is upon us next week, and the Deepwater Horizon blowout is still spewing a geyser of oil into the Gulf of Mexico. With this year's hurricane season likely to be a severe one, with much above average numbers of hurricanes and intense hurricanes, we have the unwholesome prospect of a hurricane churning through the largest accidental oil spill in history. A hurricane has never passed over a sizable oil spill before, so there are a lot of unknowns about what might happen. The closest call came in 1979, after the greatest accidental oil spill in history, the massive Ixtoc I blowout. That disaster dumped 3 million barrels (126 million gallons) of oil into the Southern Gulf of Mexico between June 1979 and March 1980. Category 1 Hurricane Henri passed just north of the main portion of the oil spill on September 16 and 17, generating 15 foot seas and southwest winds of 15 - 25 knots over the spill region on the 16th. Interestingly, the NOAA/AOML report on the spill found that the winds did not blow long enough or strongly enough to control the direction of oil flow, as evidenced by the fact that the wind direction was often 180° to the direction of plume flow. The main impact of the wind was to dilute the oil and weather it, converting it to a thick "mousse".

Oil and beaches
During the Ixtoc spill, prevailing currents circulating clockwise from the blowout carried a 60-mile by 70-mile patch of sheen containing a 300 foot by 500 foot patch of heavy crude 900 miles to the South Texas coast. On August 6, 1979, tarballs from the spill impacted a 17 mile stretch of Texas beach. Mousse patches impacted the shoreline north of Port Mansfield Channel on August 15 and again on August 18. On August 24, mousse impacted shoreline south of Aransas Pass. By August 26, most of North Padre Island was covered with moderate amounts of oil. By September 1, all of the south Texas coast had been impacted by oil. However, Hurricane Henri formed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on September 17 - 18. At the same time, a strong non-tropical low pressure system formed along the Texas coast, bringing gale-force winds and rainfall amounts in excess of ten inches to the coast. The combination of swells from Hurricane Henri and wind-driven waves from the non-tropical low pressure system scoured the oiled beaches of over 90% of their oil (Gundlach et al., 1981). The oil washed over the barrier islands into the estuaries behind them, and much of it sank to the bottom of the ocean. According to NOAA, impacts to the estuaries were minor. However, Payne and McNabb (1984) noted that selected regions of the coast, most of the beached oil was heavily resistant to transport during storms. Oil/sediment mats were ultimately covered by clean sand, but the oil/sediment mats were re-exposed and washed into the lagoon behind the barrier islands one year later when Category 3 Hurricane Allen battered the coast. No transport of the oil/sediment mats from the lagoon bottom was observed in the 3-year period following Hurricane Allen.

So, the Ixtoc blowout experience shows us that if a sandy beach is already fouled by oil, a hurricane can help clean up the mess. However, the situation is different along shores with marshlands, where the many shoreline plants offer crevices and tangled roots for the oil to accumulate in. A hurricane will help scour some of the oil out of marshlands, but the majority of it will probably remain stuck. This is also true of rocky beaches. Rocky shores fouled by the great Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska in 1989 have been pounded by many hurricane-strength storms over the years, but these storms were not able to clean the beaches of oil like Hurricane Henri did for Texas' beaches in 1979.

Transport of oil by hurricanes
Shores that are already fouled by oil will probably benefit from a hurricane, but the oil cleaned off of those shores then becomes someone else's problem. The strong winds and powerful ocean currents that a hurricane's winds drive will bring oil to large stretches of coast that otherwise would not have gotten oil. This is my chief concern regarding a hurricane moving through the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Consider the case of the Exxon Valdez disaster in 1989. The ill-fated tanker split open in Prince William Sound on March 24, and oil spill response crews were initially able to contain the spill behind booms and make good progress removing it. However, two days later, a powerful Gulf of Alaska storm with 70 mph winds roared through, overwhelming the containment booms and distributing the oil along a 90-mile stretch of coast. The oil went on to foul over 400 miles of Alaska coast, a far larger disaster than would have occurred than if the storm had not passed by. Similarly, a hurricane moving through the Gulf of Mexico spill will very likely make the disaster much worse, spreading out the oil over a larger region, and bringing the oil to shores that otherwise might not have seen oil. It is true that the oil will be diluted some by being spread out over a larger area, so some shores will not see a substantial oiling. But overall, a hurricane passing through the oil spill is likely to result in much higher damage to the coast.

I expect that during the peak portion of hurricane season (August - October), the clockwise-rotating eddy that is attempting to cut off from the Loop Current this week will be fully separated from the Loop Current. The separation of this eddy will substantially reduce the possibility that significant amounts of oil will reach the Florida Keys and Southeast U.S. coast, since the Loop Current will be much farther south, flowing more due east towards the Keys from the Yucatan Channel. Oil moving southwards from the spill location due to a hurricane's winds will tend to get trapped in the 250-mile wide eddy, potentially covering most of the surface of the eddy with oil. Thus we might have a 250-mile wide spinning oil slick in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico for days or weeks after a hurricane. This could potentially have a significant warming effect on the Gulf waters, since the oil is dark and will absorb sunlight, and the oil will prevent evaporation from cooling the waters underneath it. Since Loop Current eddies contain a large amount of very warm water that extend to great depth, they often act as high-octane fuel for hurricanes that pass over. The rapid intensification of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita were both aided by the passage of those storms over Loop Current eddies. Thus the warming of the Loop Current Eddy by oil pulled into it by a passing hurricane or tropical storm could lead to explosive intensification of the next hurricane that passes over the eddy.

The Loop Current Eddy will move slowly westwards toward Texas at about 4 miles per day after it fully cuts off. When it reaches the shallow waters near the Texas coast in early 2011, the eddy will turn northwards and gradually dissipate, By then, I expect that the vast majority of the oil in the eddy will have dispersed, sunk, or evaporated.

Storm surge and oil
One of the more unnerving prospects to consider if a hurricane hits the oil spill is what the hurricane's storm surge might do with the oil/dispersant mixture. The foul mix would ride inland on top of the surge, potentially fouling residential areas and hundreds of square miles of sensitive ecosystems with the toxic stew. The impacts of the oil and dispersant on vegetation may be too low to cause significant damage, since the hurricane would dilute the mixture with a large amount of sea water, and wash much of the toxic brew off the vegetation with heavy rain. We do have some limited experience with oil spills during Hurricane Katrina's storm surge to shed light on the subject. Katrina's storm surge caused over 8 million gallons of oil to spill into the storm surge waters. The largest spill occurred when the storm surge hit the Murphy Oil refinery in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana. According to Santella et al. (2010), The refinery was inundated with 12 feet of water, and a partially filled 250,000-barrel above ground storage tank was dislodged and ruptured, releasing 25,100 barrels (1.05 million gallons) of mixed crude oil. Dikes surrounding the oil tanks at the refinery were flooded and breached and oil from the spill covered a residential area of approximately one square mile affecting approximately 1,800 homes. Front-end loaders were needed to remove the oily sediments from the area. A class action lawsuit resulted from the spill, ending in a $330 million settlement with a buy-out of properties closest to the spill and graded compensation in a larger zone. Katrina also caused a 139,000-gallon crude oil leak from a 20-inch pipeline at Shell Nairn Pipeline Company in Port Sulphur, Louisiana. Approximately 10,500 gallons of the spill reached the shoreline and coastal marshes, and only 10,700 gallons were recovered. This release resulted in a $5.5 million class action settlement to nearby property owners (http://www.nairnclaims.com). I haven't been able to find any information on how the marshlands fared after getting oiled by this spill.

Katrina's storm surge also destroyed an oil tank at Chevron's Empire facility, releasing oil into a retention pond in a region surrounded by marshland. Three and half weeks later, Hurricane Rita's storm surge hit the oily mess in the retention pond, washing 4,000 - 8,000 gallons of oil into nearby marshlands, which were heavily or moderately oiled. According to the EPA and Merten et al. (2008), the oiled marshlands were set on fire six weeks after the spill, resulting in 80-90% removal of the oil and contaminated vegetation. The marshland recovered fairly quickly, as seen in aerial photos taken five months after the burn (Figure 1)--though oil still remained in the roots, affecting burrowing crabs and the wildlife that feed on them. So, oiled marshes can recover somewhat from a storm-surge driven oiling, but it is uncertain if burning could be successfully used to restore a 100+ square mile region of marshland oiled by the storm surge from a major hurricane. Another big unknown is how toxic BP's dispersants might be to the vegetation.


Figure 1. Upper left: oiled marshlands as seen on October 10, 2005, near Chevron's Empire facility, after the storm surges of Katrina and Rita. Right: The marshlands on March 16, 2006, five months after the controlled burn. The marshlands had largely recovered. Bottom: the controlled burn in progress (October 12, 2005.) Image credit: Merten, A.A., Henry, C., and J. Michel, 2008, Decision-making process to use in-situ burning to restore an oiled intermediate marsh following hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2008 International Oil Spill Conference.

Wind and oil
The winds from a hurricane hurl ocean sea spray miles inland, often causing major defoliation and tree damage far beyond where the storm surge penetrates. For example, Category 2 Hurricane Bob of 1991 blew sea spray inland 4 miles (7 km) inland over Cape Cod. The salt deposited defoliated nearly all the deciduous trees along the coast. Kerr, 2000 document the case of Category 2 Typhoon Gay of November 23, 1992, which hit the 15-km wide island of Guam with 95 - 100 mph winds. Interaction with another typhoon disrupted Gay's thunderstorm activity, resulting in a nearly rainless typhoon for Guam. As a result, heavy amounts of salt coated the entire island, resulting in nearly complete defoliation. The salt didn't actually kill many plants, and the island re-greened within a year. The Category 3 New England Hurricane of 1938 was able to cause salt damage to trees as far as 45 miles inland, due to wind-blown sea spray. Thus we can anticipate that a hurricane passing over the oil spill will be able to hurl oil and toxic dispersants many miles inland during landfall. In regions where little rain falls, the concentrations of the oil and dispersants may be a problem. Again, we have no experience with this sort of situation, so the potential risks are unknown.

Rain and oil
Hurricanes evaporate huge amounts of water from the ocean and convert it to rain. In general, we do not need to worry about oil dissolving into the rain, since the oil and water don't mix. Furthermore, about 50-70% of the oil that is going to evaporate from the spill does so in the first 12 hours that the oil reaches the surface, so the volatile oil compounds that could potentially get dissolved into rain water won't be around. Hurricanes are known to carry sea salt and microscopic marine plankton hundreds of miles inland, since the strong updrafts of the storm can put these substances high in the troposphere where they can be carried far inland as the hurricane makes landfall. The Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Nora of 1997, whose remnants passed over Southern California, brought traces of sea salt and marine microorganisms to clouds over the central U.S. similarly, we can expect any landfalling hurricanes that pass over the oil spill to pick up traces of Gulf of Mexico crude and transport it hundreds of miles inland. However, I doubt that these traces would be detectable in rainwater except by laboratory analysis, and would not cause any harm to plants or animals.

Lightning and oil
Could a lightning strike from a hurricane ignite oil from the spill, and the hurricane's winds hurl the flaming oil inland, creating a fiery maelstrom of water, wind, and flame? This would make a great scene in a typical bad Hollywood disaster movie, but it's not going to happen with the universe's current laws of physics. Lightning could set an oil slick on fire, in regions where the oil is most dense and very fresh. About 50-70% of the evaporation of oil's most flammable volatile compounds occurs in the first 12 hours after release, so fresh oil is the most likely to ignite. However, the winds of a hurricane are so fierce that any surface oil slick of flaming oil would quickly be disrupted and doused by wave action and sea spray. Heavy rain would further dampen any lightning-caused oil slick fires.

Bringing oil at depth to the surface
Hurricanes act like huge blenders that plow through the ocean, thoroughly mixing surface waters to depths as great as 200 meters (650 feet), and pulling waters from depth to the surface. Thus if sub-surface plumes of oil are located within 200 meters of the surface, a hurricane could potentially bring them to the surface. However, the huge sub-surface plumes of oil found by the research vessel Pelican were at depths of 2300 - 4200 feet, and a hurricane will not affect the ocean circulation at those depths.

Comparisons of the Deepwater Horizon blowout with Exxon Valdez
One footnote to consider when comparing the Deepwater Horizon blowout to the disastrous March 24, 1989 Exxon Valdez spill: the amount of oil spilled in that disaster is usually quoted as 11 million gallons (260,000 barrels.) However, this is the number given by Exxon Mobil, and independent assessments by the State of Alaska came up with a much higher figure--24 to 36 million gallons, with state investigators stressing that the lower number was very unlikely. I'd be inclined to believe Exxon grossly understated the actual severity of the spill, much like BP is attempting to do with the Deepwater Horizon blowout. Steven Wereley, an associate professor at Purdue University, used a computer analysis (particle image velocimetry) to arrive at a rate of 95,000 barrels (4 million gallons) per day since the April 20 blowout, nearly 20 times greater than the 5,000 barrel a day estimate BP and government scientists have been citing. If he is correct, and the State of Alaska's figures on the Exxon Valdez disaster are correct, the Deepwater Horizon blowout so far has spilled five times the oil Exxon Valdez did.

References
Gundlach, E.R., Finkelstein, K.J., and J.L. Sadd, "Impact and Persistence of Ixtoc I Oil on the South Texas Coast", Proceedings: 1981 Oil Spill Conference (Prevention, Behavior, Control, Cleanup) March 2-5, 1981, Atlanta, GA. p 477-485.

Kerr, A.M., 2000, "Defoliation of an island (Guam, Mariana
Archipelago, Western Pacific Ocean) following a saltspray-laden
dry typhoon," Journal of Tropical Ecology 16:895901.

Merten, A.A., Henry, C., and J. Michel, 2008, Decision-making process to use in-situ burning to restore an oiled intermediate marsh following hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2008 International Oil Spill Conference.

Payne, J.R. and D. McNabb, Jr., "Weathering of Petroleum in the Marine Environment", Marine Technology Society Journal 18, 3, Third Quarter 1984.

Santella, N., Steinberg, L.J., and H. Sengul, 2010,Petroleum and Hazardous Material Releases from Industrial Facilities Associated with Hurricane Katrina, Risk Analyis, Volume 30, Issue 4, Pages 635-649, Published Online: 16 Mar 2010

90L
I've been focused more on the oil spill, and will have just a limited discussion of (90L) off the South Carolina coast. The storm has changed little over the past 24 hours, and doesn't have time to develop into a subtropical storm, before an approaching trough of low pressure pulls the system out to sea Thursday and Friday. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 90L a less than 10% chance of developing into a depression or tropical/subtropical storm, and anticipates not writing any more special advisories on 90L. There presently isn't much to be concerned with about this storm, though Bermuda may get more heavy rain and high seas from the storm late this week as it moves out to sea. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on 90L.

Central American disturbance
An area of disturbed weather has developed just off the Pacific coast of Mexico. The disturbance will bring heavy rains to Central America during the remainder of the week, potentially bringing serious flooding rains to portions of Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. There is the potential for disturbed weather accompanying the disturbance to push into the Western Caribbean early next week and pose a threat to develop into a tropical depression. While there is high wind shear over the northern Caribbean, shear should be low enough to allow development should the disturbance stay in the southern reaches of the Caribbean. Any storm that develops in the Caribbean in the coming week would get steered to the northeast and will not pose a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

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1791. eddye
im 19 dude
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
1763. nrtiwlnvragn 8:08 AM EDT on May 27, 2010

Can't wait; Dr. M will probalby delay his blog until after NHC releases theirs (I'm sure he probably has an advance copy and working on his Blog already). I can't see them even attempting to go up towards "actual" 2005 numbers......My guess would be in the 17-20 storm range.


Since there is little to no skill in seasonal forecasting at the May timeframe, expect a wider range.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
Quoting eddye:
wunderkid cayman u suck u never know wat u talking about everybody is better then u on here
Why the personal attack that was uncalled for.
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Wow!



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Quoting Dakster:
Isn't today the day the NHC unveils there official forecast???

Anyone have a time and channel?
Yep today is the day they will release it at 10 Am est.
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Quoting Dakster:
Isn't today the day the NHC unveils there official forecast???

Anyone have a time and channel?


Nope, NOAA releases their numbers.

The NHC doesnt do seasonal forecasts.
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Quoting CycloneOz:


Dr. Gray in Colorado upped the ante yesterday, saying "This will be one "hell of a year."

Wow...
Yep interesting outlook from him coming soon.
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90L looks better this morning, some deep convection has formed east of the center, trying to wrap around, Now that it may not get picked up by a trough, it'll be interesting to see what it does in the Gulf Stream. 90E is o it's way to Depression status, yippee lol.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Thats the most likely prediction they'll use.

Anything above that would cause panic. NOAA doesnt like doing that.


Agreed..........But hopefully folks will get the "gist" of the numbers and really take care in terms of preparations and plans this particular year.
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1781. Dakster
Isn't today the day the NHC unveils there official forecast???

Anyone have a time and channel?
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Quoting alexhurricane1991:
I think they will go with about 14-18 storms


Dr. Gray in Colorado upped the ante yesterday, saying "This will be one "hell of a year."

Wow...
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nothing is going to florida nothing well maybe ex-90L but that is it
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Quoting alexhurricane1991:
I think they will go with about 14-18 storms


Thats the most likely prediction they'll use.

Anything above that would cause panic. NOAA doesnt like doing that.
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1777. Dakster
MOdles for 90E are looking like a squicked spider... Looks like it will take some time for it decides what it is going to do... It is a wait and watch.

Glad to see 90L fell apart. Hopefully it doesn't decide to regen over Florida! (Stranger things have happened)
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
1763. nrtiwlnvragn 8:08 AM EDT on May 27, 2010

Can't wait; Dr. M will probalby delay his blog until after NHC releases theirs (I'm sure he probalby has an advance copy and working on his Blog already). I can't see them even attempting to go up towards "actual" 2005 numbers......My guess would be in the 17-20 storm range.
I think they will go with about 14-18 storms
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Quoting mikatnight:


Mornin Oz. Nice pic.


Nothing like a little luck...or a spoonful of suger with your medicine, to help it go down.
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Quoting eddye:
it looks like it wwill come close to florida because i dont see anything to sterr it


It will come close to Florida, but it will likely be too weak to be of any significance.
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1763. nrtiwlnvragn 8:08 AM EDT on May 27, 2010

Can't wait; Dr. M will probalby delay his blog until after NHC releases theirs (I'm sure he probably has an advance copy and working on his Blog already). I can't see them even attempting to go up towards "actual" 2005 numbers......My guess would be in the 17-20 storm range.
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Quoting biff4ugo:
Good Morning.

CycloneOz, is that a fisheye? You drive around with a fisheye lens? Cool Clouds! Strange truck.

Can anyone tell me why the plume coming out of the pipe is still going up, if it is heavy mud now? If the oil has stopped and the top kill drilling fluid is what is coming out, shouldn't the cloud of it hug the bottom rather than rise like the bouyant oil/gas?


Hey...actually, that's a shot from my GoPro Hero HD. It takes pictures, too. :)

I wish you folks could have been there live. It was very beautiful, scenic weather...not like that killer thunderstorm in Mississippi some weeks ago now.
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Quoting StormW:


Alas, poor El Nino, I knew him well...

Mornin Storm!
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
1770. eddye
it looks like it wwill come close to florida because i dont see anything to sterr it
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Good morning everyone!
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Quoting CycloneOz:
Wow...our first depression of the season.

meh...(out for some coffee.)


Its not a depression yet lol
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Quoting scott39:
90E is almost at 95W and still going W. Its hard to understand how its going to even get in the most farthest NW part of the Carr. sea? Also when is the trough suppose to be here to pick it up? please help!


Lots of us saw the same setup two days ago. We just didn't see this storm making that dramatic right turn into CA.

Now...those of us who saw this setup could still be wrong and that trough could "come out of nowhere" and turn the sucker.

It's Mexico for this baby...that's my guess...and then on to the BoC...and the GOO...that will eat it up and spit it out.
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Quoting CycloneOz:
Good Morning, Everyone.

Yesterday, while driving home, I ran into a bit of a squall out on the high plains of New Mexico. It had some pretty interesting could formations and a nice rainbow in the heavy stuff. Here is one of the pictures I took of the phenomenon.



Mornin Oz. Nice pic.
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
hey scott39 this will help you know what you are asking
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1764. eddye
is 90 e going to come close to florida or cuba
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Quoting IKE:


Looks like the GOM is off-limits.

Excellent time to get this oil spill stopped.

CNN's John Roberts was saying NOAA's predictions for 2010 are similar to 2005 in severity.

Whether that's hype we'll soon know from NOAA.


Have your snak and beverage of choice ready, blogs going to get interesting after 10AM.
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11215
Good Morning.

CycloneOz, is that a fisheye? You drive around with a fisheye lens? Cool Clouds! Strange truck.

Can anyone tell me why the plume coming out of the pipe is still going up, if it is heavy mud now? If the oil has stopped and the top kill drilling fluid is what is coming out, shouldn't the cloud of it hug the bottom rather than rise like the bouyant oil/gas?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1761. scott39
90E is almost at 95W and still going W. Its hard to understand how its going to even get in the most farthest NW part of the Carr. sea? Also when is the trough suppose to be here to pick it up? please help!
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Wow...our first depression of the season.

meh...(out for some coffee.)
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1759. SLU


no comment ....
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1758. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
745

WHXX04 KWBC 270518

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90E



INITIAL TIME 0Z MAY 27



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 13.0 94.4 240./ 2.9

6 12.7 95.1 245./ 7.1

12 12.5 95.1 201./ 1.4

18 12.3 95.6 241./ 5.5

24 12.5 96.1 292./ 5.2

30 12.2 96.2 192./ 2.9

36 12.3 95.5 76./ 6.6

42 12.5 95.2 66./ 3.6

48 12.8 94.8 47./ 5.0

54 13.1 94.4 48./ 4.9

60 13.3 94.3 38./ 2.4

66 13.8 93.9 41./ 6.2

72 14.1 93.4 54./ 5.3

78 14.6 93.0 43./ 5.9

84 15.1 92.8 20./ 5.3



STORM DISSIPATED AT 84 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54372
Good Morning, Everyone.

Yesterday, while driving home, I ran into a bit of a squall out on the high plains of New Mexico. It had some pretty interesting cloud formations and a nice rainbow in the heavy stuff. Here is one of the pictures I took of the phenomenon.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1756. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902010) 20100527 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100527 0600 100527 1800 100528 0600 100528 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 12.8N 94.4W 12.7N 94.8W 12.8N 95.1W 13.0N 95.1W

BAMD 12.8N 94.4W 13.0N 95.6W 13.1N 96.6W 13.3N 97.4W

BAMM 12.8N 94.4W 12.9N 95.0W 12.8N 95.1W 12.8N 94.8W

LBAR 12.8N 94.4W 13.5N 94.7W 14.5N 95.1W 15.7N 94.8W

SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS

DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100529 0600 100530 0600 100531 0600 100601 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.0N 94.9W 13.0N 94.7W 13.2N 94.1W 13.5N 95.1W

BAMD 13.2N 97.7W 13.1N 98.1W 13.8N 98.3W 15.0N 98.9W

BAMM 12.6N 94.2W 12.5N 93.1W 13.4N 92.5W 14.3N 93.1W

LBAR 17.1N 93.6W 20.0N 88.1W 24.9N 81.3W 28.4N 75.0W

SHIP 48KTS 57KTS 59KTS 62KTS

DSHP 48KTS 57KTS 59KTS 62KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 12.8N LONCUR = 94.4W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 2KT

LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 94.1W DIRM12 = 224DEG SPDM12 = 2KT

LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 93.6W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54372
1754. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

TPPN10 PGTW 270905

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (SOUTH CHINA SEA)

B. 27/0830Z

C. 21.6N

D. 115.8E

E. THREE/MET7

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


ROSS
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54372
1753. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

WTPN21 PGTW 270200
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
085 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.0N 115.0E TO 22.1N 118.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 262330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.4N 115.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.7N
115.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 115.3E, APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 262140Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW IMPROVED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE IMAGERY NOTED ABOVE, HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS POSITION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM LIES JUST
SOUTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF
MODERATE, NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, THIS VWS
IS FORECAST TO DECREASE BECAUSE THE STR WILL BUILD OVER THE SYSTEM
AS AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE
PHILIPPINES CONTINUES EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND HIGH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ANALYZED AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
280200Z.//
NNNN

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54372
1752. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

1. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OR DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FLOODING...AND MUD
SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY OVER EL
SALVADOR...SOUTHERN HONDURAS...AND COASTAL GUATEMALA. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54372
hmmm...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OR DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FLOODING...AND MUD
SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY OVER EL
SALVADOR...SOUTHERN HONDURAS...AND COASTAL GUATEMALA.
THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1750. scott39
90L reminds me of those malnutrition zombie storms that wouldnt die last season!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning

Blog Update

90L fades away while 90E develops
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 27 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OR DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FLOODING...AND MUD
SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY OVER EL
SALVADOR...SOUTHERN HONDURAS...AND COASTAL GUATEMALA. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/PASCH

I ope it will not be another Artur as the ground is saturated already and its raining a lot all ready the last 1.5 weeks
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It looks like 90-E should be makeing landfall in Central America later today by looking at this

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1746. IKE
Quoting tramp96:

What was thier forecast in 2005 and what were the final numbers?


I'm not sure...others may know. I don't think they were anywhere near the totals although I think they predicted an above average season.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting tramp96:

What was thier forecast in 2005 and what were the final numbers?


From May 2005
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1744. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 27 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OR DRIFT
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FLOODING...AND MUD
SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...ESPECIALLY OVER EL
SALVADOR...SOUTHERN HONDURAS...AND COASTAL GUATEMALA. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/PASCH

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1743. RTLSNK
Quoting pottery:

Yeah, I know.
But I think that this is all Keeper's fault.
I ordered rain from him, and specified 12 mm a day. His supply department mixed it up and is delivering 12 inches a day.
I should have read the fine print!
heheheheh


Greetings and salutations Lord Pottery, reading the fine print is always a good idea! 63*F here in Macon, Georgia this morning headed up to 90*F later today. Humidity is 97% at 0727 hrs already. Don't you just love an almost 30* rise in temp in one day. I think I should start the yard work in a few minutes while I still can function. We have planted 82 trees so far since we bought the property two years ago. Three more and I think that will do it for awhile. Lost our six Dogwoods to some odd virus that is killing them all over Georgia. The good thing is it only affects Dogwoods.
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Good Morning its raining hard in Belize and i see 90E is looking good again this morning .
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.