Little change to 90L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on May 25, 2010

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The extratropical low pressure system (90L) approaching North Carolina has weakened some over the past 24 hours, and has a much reduced chance of developing into a subtropical storm. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 90L a less than 20% chance of developing into a depression or tropical/subtropical storm, and anticipates not writing any more special advisories on it. Last night's ASCAT pass saw a large area of 35 mph winds to the north and east of the center, and buoy 41048 to northeast of 90L's center was seeing sustained E winds of 31 mph, gusting to 36 mph this morning. Bermuda radar showing an area of moderate to heavy rain has now moved north of the island, and seas are running 10 - 15 feet in the outer waters of Bermuda today.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 90L and the Central American disturbance this morning.

Strong upper-levels winds out of the west are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over 90L, and the shear has been gradually decreasing over the past day. Visible satellite loops show that 90L has a well-defined surface circulation. The main thunderstorm activity is in a large curved band to the north and northeast of the center. This band is several hundred miles removed from the center, which is characteristic of subtropical storms. Sea surface temperatures are near 24°C today and will remain in the 23 - 24°C range the next two days. These relatively cool SSTs have hampered formation of much heavy thunderstorm activity, as has the presence of a large area of dry air to the west, as seen on water vapor satellite loops .

The system will move slowly towards the Southeast U.S. coast today, making its closest approach to the coast on Wednesday, when most of the models indicate the center will be 300 - 500 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. All of the major models currently predict that 90L will not make landfall, but will move slowly eastward out to sea on Thursday, when a trough of low pressure moving across the Eastern U.S. picks up the storm. There presently isn't much to be concerned with about this storm, though Bermuda may get more heavy rain and high seas from the storm late this week as it moves out to sea. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on 90L.

Central American disturbance
An area of disturbed weather has developed just off the Pacific coast of Guatemala. The disturbance will move inland over Central America during the last half of the week, potentially bringing flooding rains to portions of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. There is the potential for the disturbance to push into the Western Caribbean late this week and pose a threat to develop into a tropical depression. While there is high wind shear over the northern Caribbean, shear should be low enough to allow development should the disturbance stay in the southern reaches of the Caribbean. Any storm that develops in the Caribbean in the coming week would get steered to the northeast and will not pose a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

Tornadoes rip through the Plains
The Storm Prediction Center logged 17 reports of tornadoes yesterday, with twisters reported in South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. In addition, there were 158 hail reports and 126 reports of damaging winds. Fortunately, there were no deaths or injuries reported, and it was a good day for the Vortex2 tornado field research project. Former wunderblogger Mike Theiss caught up with a very picturesque tornado near Faith, South Dakota, and has posted some spectacular video of the tornado.


Figure 2. Large tornado near Faith, South Dakota on May 24, 2010 just misses hitting a church. Image credit: Mike Theiss, ultimatechase.com. Check out his spectacular video of the tornado.

I'll be back later today to discuss how a hurricane might affect the oil in the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

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467. IKE
Jeez...I google FIU and low and behold....the top link...Florida International University. Don't suppose that's in south Florida? Nah...no way.
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465. xcool
456 yea
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Quoting CycloneOz:


The only severe weather in that area of the country is very close to Joplin, MO...(and then...just a severe thunderstorm watch.)

If it were me, I'd go on into Amarillo, find a nice movie theater...and treat my wife to the chick flick, "Letters to Juliet."

But that's just me....


OK Oz now my wife like you already.... LMBO
She said that was a "Wonderful" Idea.... Do you really think that we will not see anything today at all???? Just wondering

Taco :o)
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Quoting Levi32:


Yes, especially if it remains weak. Its chances of being something significant in the Caribbean diminish if it becomes a hurricane in the eastern Pacific first, before crossing.


Is that because a weaker storm would tend to be able to fight land better than a hurricane?

Or could it be a Hurricane would take more energy away from the general area and therefore not as much energy would be left?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 8083
461. xcool
ding ding
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460. RM706
Its time to rAZ the guys and get some cool Plastic Pointers ... http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.html
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Quoting IKE:


hmmmmm.


lol
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31658
457. IKE
Quoting FIU2010:
nw, guys, i know taht you all are highly suspect of him on here.


hmmmmm.
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Quoting FIU2010:
Levi, could 90E survive the track through Central America and reemerge itself in the Carib? That would be something, wouldn't it? hahahaha, lol.


Yes, especially if it remains weak. Its chances of being something significant in the Caribbean diminish if it becomes a hurricane in the eastern Pacific first, before crossing.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
Thanks Patrap for posting Dr. Masters radio clip.
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Nothin gets past Ike. The saga continues...
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451. IKE
Quoting extreme236:


Oh god I don't even want to think about the possibility of him being back on here for this season.


He will be...until he gets banned.

EDIT>>>I didn't say I didn't like JFV, but he can't survive admin.
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Quoting IKE:


Greetings.

Hate to be quick to ask...but....are you JFV?


Oh god I don't even want to think about the possibility of him being back on here for this season.
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On the models, I should clarify that is regarding TRACK of the storms.

WTO
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Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31658
445. IKE
Quoting FIU2010:
Hi Ike, no, I'm not that infamous JFV blogger.


Okay. Welcome.
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Quoting SouthALWX:

I keep reminding people of the ECMWTF years but it seems to have slipped many minds the past little while. GFS is bad about ghost storms ... ECM picks up well on genesis but has been bad about over intensifying in the past. CMC is just tropical crack .. keeps us goin' when everything else is boring and we need a something for the addiction =P


Ghost storms I don't care about, especially 5 days out. In terms of actual storms, last year the GFS and ECMWF models did best up to 48 hours out, with the CMC in spitting range of those two. 5 days out, the CMC performed best.

How the models did in 2009 season
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443. xcool
haha ike
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442. IKE
Day 7 HPC shows a Caribbean low....

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441. xcool
good.and lazy today
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OK from The NWS out of AMarillo TX keeps saying that the Pandhandle and western Oklahoma will have very server weather the next 2 days. So looks like a prime location for chasing Tornados..... We will see...

Taco :o)
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Greetings.

Hate to be quick to ask...but....are you JFV?



hahahahahahaha!

;)
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Quoting cg2916:
Hey, 456, what odds do you give 90L of forming?
Quoting FIU2010:
90L in the East Pac looks promising, guys.


It's 90E...."E" for East Pacific. 90L is in the Atlantic.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26754
434. IKE
Quoting FIU2010:
G'afternoon, all; long time lurker, here. How's everyone doing?


Greetings.

Hate to be quick to ask...but....are you JFV?
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432. xcool
alexhurricane1991 heyyyyyyyy
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430. xcool
FIU2010 hey
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Hey, 456, what odds do you give 90L of forming?
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SHIPS is calling for near hurricane strength
anyone up for a repeat of Alma/Arthur?
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Quoting TheCname:
If 90E becomes Agatha will it keep the same name or turn into Alex when it cross over to the Atlantic side?


The following rules apply for tropical cyclones passing from one basin to another: Retain the name if a tropical cyclone passes from one basin into another basin as a tropical cyclone; i.e., advisories are continuous. An unnamed tropical depression will also retain its number (e.g. Tropical Depression Six-E remains Tropical Depression Six-E) if it crosses into another area of responsibility. For unnamed tropical depressions moving from west to east across 180°, CPHC will use the associated Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s (JTWC) number and indicate JTWC in parentheses following the number. For named systems, CPHC will use the associated RSMC Tokyo name and provide the associated JTWC number in parentheses.
Within a basin, if the remnant of a tropical cyclone redevelops into a tropical cyclone, it is assigned its original number or name. If the remnants of a former tropical cyclone regenerate in a new basin, the regenerated tropical cyclone will be given a new designation.


National Hurricane Operations Plan, Chapter 3
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just wondering if OZ is still on????

Taco :o)
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Quoting TheCname:
If 90E becomes Agatha will it keep the same name or turn into Alex when it cross over to the Atlantic side?


http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/B5.html

If it maintains itself as a named cyclone it will not be renamed.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31658
423. xcool
TheCname // well get new name
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Quoting Floodman:


Darlin', that oil soaker stuff is actually clay cat litter; won't work in water


Oh see I said i probably didn't know what i was talking about. Thank you Floodman. How r ya? I sure have missed evy1.
Sheri
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Quoting TheCname:
If 90E becomes Agatha will it keep the same name or turn into Alex when it cross over to the Atlantic side?


Quoting Weather456:
The timing was eerily prescient, as the first tropical depression of the season has formed in the Atlantic of the eastern coast of the U.S. [See IJ web site - http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2010/05/25/110138.htm]. TSR's report anticipates "Atlantic basin and U.S. land falling hurricane activity being 55 percent above the long-term (1950-2009) norm."

lol


Someone forgot to tell them lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 8083
Hey All,

Well I'm in Pampa TX and will be ready to chase a storm to our south west.... Can anyone on here might give us a better location it sure would be very helpful


Thanks
Taco :o)
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Quoting TheCname:
If 90E becomes Agatha will it keep the same name or turn into Alex when it cross over to the Atlantic side?
It well become Alex
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Quoting TheCname:
If 90E becomes Agatha will it keep the same name or turn into Alex when it cross over to the Atlantic side?

It will be renamed Alex
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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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