Little change to 90L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:33 PM GMT on May 25, 2010

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The extratropical low pressure system (90L) approaching North Carolina has weakened some over the past 24 hours, and has a much reduced chance of developing into a subtropical storm. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 90L a less than 20% chance of developing into a depression or tropical/subtropical storm, and anticipates not writing any more special advisories on it. Last night's ASCAT pass saw a large area of 35 mph winds to the north and east of the center, and buoy 41048 to northeast of 90L's center was seeing sustained E winds of 31 mph, gusting to 36 mph this morning. Bermuda radar showing an area of moderate to heavy rain has now moved north of the island, and seas are running 10 - 15 feet in the outer waters of Bermuda today.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 90L and the Central American disturbance this morning.

Strong upper-levels winds out of the west are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over 90L, and the shear has been gradually decreasing over the past day. Visible satellite loops show that 90L has a well-defined surface circulation. The main thunderstorm activity is in a large curved band to the north and northeast of the center. This band is several hundred miles removed from the center, which is characteristic of subtropical storms. Sea surface temperatures are near 24°C today and will remain in the 23 - 24°C range the next two days. These relatively cool SSTs have hampered formation of much heavy thunderstorm activity, as has the presence of a large area of dry air to the west, as seen on water vapor satellite loops .

The system will move slowly towards the Southeast U.S. coast today, making its closest approach to the coast on Wednesday, when most of the models indicate the center will be 300 - 500 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. All of the major models currently predict that 90L will not make landfall, but will move slowly eastward out to sea on Thursday, when a trough of low pressure moving across the Eastern U.S. picks up the storm. There presently isn't much to be concerned with about this storm, though Bermuda may get more heavy rain and high seas from the storm late this week as it moves out to sea. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on 90L.

Central American disturbance
An area of disturbed weather has developed just off the Pacific coast of Guatemala. The disturbance will move inland over Central America during the last half of the week, potentially bringing flooding rains to portions of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. There is the potential for the disturbance to push into the Western Caribbean late this week and pose a threat to develop into a tropical depression. While there is high wind shear over the northern Caribbean, shear should be low enough to allow development should the disturbance stay in the southern reaches of the Caribbean. Any storm that develops in the Caribbean in the coming week would get steered to the northeast and will not pose a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

Tornadoes rip through the Plains
The Storm Prediction Center logged 17 reports of tornadoes yesterday, with twisters reported in South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. In addition, there were 158 hail reports and 126 reports of damaging winds. Fortunately, there were no deaths or injuries reported, and it was a good day for the Vortex2 tornado field research project. Former wunderblogger Mike Theiss caught up with a very picturesque tornado near Faith, South Dakota, and has posted some spectacular video of the tornado.


Figure 2. Large tornado near Faith, South Dakota on May 24, 2010 just misses hitting a church. Image credit: Mike Theiss, ultimatechase.com. Check out his spectacular video of the tornado.

I'll be back later today to discuss how a hurricane might affect the oil in the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Levi32:


"Came" makes it sound like you think 90L is past its peak. In my opinion its best chance is now through tomorrow night, while its sitting near the Gulf Stream and vertically stacked while eventually becoming detached from the frontish trough.


You also forgot "if". If it was not named over the next few days based the images I have now at its healthiest, it came close.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
does anyone think that this season is going to be all east coast landfalls? that is something i heard and i wanted to know what you all thought about that. where does the Bermuda high have to be for this to happen and is it looking like the high will be pushing storms to the east coast or the gulf coast this season? thanks in advance
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NEXRAD Radar
Wilmington, Composite Reflectivity Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
Quoting FIU2010:


you wish that were the case, you speak about him the most.
Yeah I know I speak about him. No argument intended it's just that all the signals are pointing to you being JFV. Now enough of that, back to the tropics.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
^ 750 *poof*
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18Z GFS ramps up 90E fairly quickly, then forms a 2nd low in the NW Caribbean

While whatever 90E becomes dies out, the GFS up to this point doesn't do much with a 1008mb low north of Honduras

18Z GFS has ran through 114 hours so far
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7818
Quoting FIU2010:
levi, are stt's continuining to warm in the EATL?


Yes.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
90L fires off a round in its NW Quad..

Poofage you could say..



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
Quoting Weather456:


It looks its healthiest. In fact this system if not named, came very close.



"Came" makes it sound like you think 90L is past its peak. In my opinion its best chance is now through tomorrow night, while it's sitting near the Gulf Stream and vertically stacked while eventually becoming detached from the frontish trough.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Quoting ElConando:


Not even a tactical nuke? just a little tac? a tini winni tac? it would make the north Koreans laugh how tini it is.


Nope.

I heard about this 2 weeks ago. A really popular Russian newspaper suggested it. But really, even if it works, doesn't it just radiate the Gulf?
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Quoting Levi32:


Where are you getting that?

And Bermuda is what...800 miles away from the center? Those winds aren't going to be used to classify it.


Here's the link to the video.. Meant to say Accuweather METS..
Accuweather video on 90L
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
Quoting cg2916:
Hey, 456, is it me, or is 90L looking better?


It looks its healthiest. In fact this system if not named, came very close.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
No Nukie for you G. I.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
751. xcool



new ngp


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3 Day Oil Spill Plume Forecast and 120 Hour Current Forecast (using HYCOM)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
By the way, to all those advocating a complete boycott of BP, look up to the rotating ad at the top of this blog. BP is paying WU for advertising space and you are suporting BP by participating in this blog...interesting, huh?
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Quoting FIU2010:


who doesn't? a lot of folks on here are always talking about that infamous blogger, what a reputation.
We all know you are JFV, no cover needed.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Patrap:
Any talk of a Nuke or explosive is ridiculous..

Never in all the PC's has that come up.

Never.


Not even a tactical nuke? just a little tac? a tini winni tac? it would make the north Koreans laugh how tini it is.
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Quoting cg2916:
Hey, 456, is it me, or is 90L looking better?


Better than yesterday, but that's not saying too much.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Another thing, the subtropical jet will be blowing strong at 25N. Therefore, if the system remains south thereof, it has potential to be strong and fulfill the the BAMM. If the system ventures north thereof, it will encounter shear and remain weak, thus fulfilling the the BAMS. So we both see the steering level and strength of the system will determine where the storm will go which appears directly related. That being said, if the models foresee a more NE motion, they are responding to a stronger system. A northerly track is responsive to a weaker system. So infact, Cuba would get a stronger system than Florida both ways.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
does anyone think that this season is going to be all east coast landfalls? that is something i heard and i wanted to know what you all thought about that. where does the Bermuda high have to be for this to happen and is it looking like the high will be pushing storms to the east coast or the gulf coast this season? thanks in advance
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Quoting reedzone:
Accuweather is calling 90L a Subtropical Storm do to 35 knot winds being reported in Bermuda, the case with Subtropical cyclones, winds are found away from the center. It's definitely Hybrid, just needs more convection but with all that dry air, it's hard to get it cranking, shear is currently 10-20 knots over the storm.


Where are you getting that?

And Bermuda is what...800 miles away from the center? Those winds aren't going to be used to classify it.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
Quoting cg2916:
Hey, 456, is it me, or is 90L looking better?

It's you.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24390
90L RGB

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
Quoting CycloneOz:


It can't be done. The person you sent it to has to reply without deleting your original message in order for you to see it.

Thanks OZ.
Drat.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24390
Hey, 456, is it me, or is 90L looking better?
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Quoting reedzone:
Accuweather is calling 90L a Subtropical Storm do to 35 knot winds being reported in Bermuda, the case with Subtropical cyclones, winds are found away from the center. It's definitely Hybrid, just needs more convection but with all that dry air, it's hard to get it cranking, shear is currently 10-20 knots over the storm.


May not take much to officially classify 90L and then send many into arguments over whether it deserves a name lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7818
weary of what?
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Any talk of a Nuke or explosive is ridiculous..

Never in all the PC's has that come up.

Never.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128654
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


They probably have a pretty good idea what is going on ... they have done some imaging, and they are nervous.

I think the unknown issue here is whether a top kill or junk shot will plug up the BOP or sneak on up and plug the low pressure marine riser (the "riser") at the kink. If it does, there will be a big kablooey as that riser suddenly exceeds its burst pressure by an order of magnitude or so. Which effectively means an open well.

Exactly right.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24390
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Well guys after looking at all the models that are forcasting the storm in the caribbean I will be getting my hurricane supplies now and do my anual Cayman Hurricane Center preps


Not a bad idea regardless of what is model forecasted to hit you... I always have cans of fresh fuel handy and canned goods. I cycle both out so I always have "fresh" supplies...
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Quoting cyclonekid:
90L:


Coordinates Courtesy of W-Underground

90E graphic to come later


90E:


Information courtesy of Weather Underground
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Accuweather is calling 90L a Subtropical Storm do to 35 knot winds being reported in Bermuda, the case with Subtropical cyclones, winds are found away from the center. It's definitely Hybrid, just needs more convection but with all that dry air, it's hard to get it cranking, shear is currently 10-20 knots over the storm.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
Quoting Dakster:
But if the pipe is leaking beneath the ocean surface before it gets to the BOP, how is the top kill going to work?

The BOP is on the sea-floor. The leaks are ABOVE the BOP.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24390
Quoting Weather456:


As I said in those two posts, for the system to miss Florida it has to be deep enough to be carried by the mid-level flow because the shallow layer flow (weak system) would turn it more towards the state. Most of the models feel the system will be deep enough as they have it going NE. That being said, these tracks are indicative of a strong TS.


Well, this is going to be an interesting weekend. If I go to this "system," I'll have to travel by air and land in Ft. Lauderdale. Hurricanejunky will have to pick me up and we'll have to scoot to any landfall location in S. FL.
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Another hurricane season of this, lol?
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:


As I said in those two posts, for the system to miss Florida it has to be deep enough to be carried by the mid-level flow because the shallow layer flow (weak system) would turn it more towards the state. Most of the models feel the system will be deep enough as they have it going NE. That being said, these tracks are indicative of a strong TS.
Exactly!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
I'm out for now
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Quoting pottery:
Yeah, I saw this.
I cannot understand what is taking so long to do an analysis of the interior of the BOP (which I am sure is the unknown issue here).
Cant they ultra-sound it ?? Although to build an ultra-sound device that can withstand 5000 ft deep pressure may be a bit of a challenge....
Having said that, I also feel that the current flow is small, compared to the potential flow if they screw-up this option.
This is a BAD one guys...........


They probably have a pretty good idea what is going on ... they have done some imaging, and they are nervous.

I think the unknown issue here is whether a top kill or junk shot will plug up the BOP or sneak on up and plug the low pressure marine riser (the "riser") at the kink. If it does, there will be a big kablooey as that riser suddenly exceeds its burst pressure by an order of magnitude or so. Which effectively means an open well.
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At 81 hours there a low east of the Yucatan.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15921
But if the pipe is leaking beneath the ocean surface before it gets to the BOP, how is the top kill going to work?
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Well guys after looking at all the models that are forcasting the storm in the caribbean I will be getting my hurricane supplies now and do my anual Cayman Hurricane Center preps
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Quoting FIU2010:



not at all, just weary, are you down there in caymens?


I am in the Caymans but assumed you knew that.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.