90L heads for North Carolina, drenches Bermuda; oil spill changing little

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:54 PM GMT on May 24, 2010

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An extratropical low pressure system (90L) between the Bahamas and Bermuda is moving north-northwest towards North Carolina and is close to tropical storm strength. Last night's ASCAT pass saw a large area of 35 mph winds to the north and east of the center, and buoy 41048 to northeast of 90L's center was seeing sustained ENE winds of 36 mph, gusting to 43 mph this morning. Bermuda is seeing some heavy weather from this storm, with winds blowing at 35 mph on the west end of the island, and the Bermuda radar showing an area of moderate to heavy rain moving over the island. Seas are running 5 - 10 feet in the outer waters of Bermuda today, and are expected to increase to 10 - 14 feet tonight before diminishing on Tuesday.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 90L this morning.

Strong upper-levels winds out of the west are creating about 25 knots of wind shear over 90L, but the shear has been gradually decreasing over the past day. Visible satellite loops show that 90L does not have a well-defined surface circulation. The main thunderstorm activity is in a large curved band to the north and northeast of the center. This band is several hundred miles removed from the center, which is characteristic of subtropical storms. I expect that 90L will continue to grow more subtropical in nature today through Wednesday as the shear continues to fall. Sea surface temperatures are near 25°C today and will fall to 23 - 24°C on Tuesday. This is warm enough to support a subtropical storm, but probably not a tropical storm. On Wednesday, 90L will be nearing the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and SSTs will warm again, to the 24 - 25°C range. This is still pretty cool for a tropical storm, and I expect 90L will never become fully tropical. To understand the difference between a tropical and subtropical storm and why we care, see my subtropical storm tutorial.

The SHIPS model predicts that shear will fall to the medium 10 - 20 knot range by Tuesday. A large amount of dry air to 90L's southwest associated with the upper-level trough of low pressure on top of the storm, as seen on water vapor satellite loops , will hamper transition of 90L to a subtropical or tropical storm. The system will move slowly towards the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days, making its closest approach to the coast on Wednesday, when most of the models indicate the center will be 200 - 400 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. All of the major models currently predict that 90L will not make landfall, but will move slowly eastward out to sea on Thursday, when a trough of low pressure moving across the Eastern U.S. picks up the storm. There presently isn't much to be concerned with about this storm, as it appears that it will remain offshore and will become, at worst, a 40 - 50 mph subtropical storm. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 90L a medium (30% chance) of developing into a depression or tropical/subtropical storm. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on 90L.

Western Caribbean disturbance
A small region of disturbed weather has developed in the Western Caribbean, off the east coast of Nicaragua. Moisture is expected to increase across in this area in the coming days, and by Saturday, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that shear will drop low enough to permit the possible development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression. This storm would then move northeastward over eastern Cuba early next week. The other models keep the shear high in the Caribbean all week, and do not show anything developing. Thus, the Western Caribbean bears watching later this week, but the conditions appear marginal for development.

Moderate risk of severe weather today in northern Plains
The Storm Prediction Center has placed western Nebraska and portions of South and North Dakota under their "Moderate" risk for severe weather today. They warn that "a couple of strong and possibly long-track tornadoes appear possible given the forecast scenario." Keep an eye on the activity today with our Severe Weather Page.

Major oil threat continues for the coast of Louisiana
Light winds are expected to prevail across the northern Gulf of Mexico all week, resulting in continued oiling threats to the Louisiana shoreline from the mouth of the Mississippi River westward 150 miles, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. There is no longer a flow of oil moving southwards towards the Loop Current, and the oil that did move southwards last week was mostly entrained into a counter-clockwise rotating eddy attached to the northern boundary of the Loop Current. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery over the weekend showed that most of this oil has dispersed, and very little of this oil is now visible from space (Figure 2.) Imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument and from NOAA aircraft did not show any oil in the Loop Current headed towards the Florida Keys over the weekend, so that is good news. NOAA comments that there may be some "scattered tar balls" in the Loop Current headed towards the Florida Keys. I expect these scattered tar balls have completed the full loop of the Loop Current and are now headed east towards the Keys, and will pass the Dry Tortugas and Key West sometime Wednesday - Saturday. My guess is that the oil and its accompanying plume of toxic dispersants will be too thin and scattered to cause significant problems in the Keys.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 11:41am EDT Saturday May 22, 2010, by the European Envisat-1 satellite. Only scattered patches of oil are evident in the counter-clockwise rotating eddy on the northern boundary of the Loop Current. A small amount of oil appears to be in the Loop Current, and is moving southward. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Future threats to the Keys
Mostly offshore winds are expected this week over the northern Gulf of Mexico, thanks to the approach of the 90L storm along the Southeast U.S. coast. It is uncertain if these winds will be strong enough to push oil southward into the Loop Current, though at least one ocean trajectory model does show this occurring. As I discussed in my post Wednesday, the Loop Current is very unstable right now, and is ready to cut off into a giant clockwise-rotating eddy, an event that occurs every 6 - 11 months. At least one ocean model (the Global HYCOM model from the HYCOM consortium) is predicting that such an eddy will form this week. In the event a Loop Current Eddy does break off, it would create a rotating ring of water 250 miles in diameter to the south of the oil spill. Oil moving southwards would tend to enter the giant eddy and circulate around it, not threatening any land areas. Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecast Service has a nice discussion on the possibility of the Loop Current cutting off into a Loop Current Eddy. Keep in mind, though, that during the first month that a Loop Current Eddy forms, it exchanges a considerable amount of water with the Loop Current. Thus we can expect that a portion of any oil moving southwards into a Loop Current Eddy will find its way into the Loop Current and move past the Florida Keys.

Oil spill resources
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll be back with a new post Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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It is currently 12:38 AM in Florida; I am very sleepy. Good night!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1083. Levi32
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Congrats on graduation

So what do you think of 90L
Also the EPAC has a yellow circle now and some models want to bring it across into the Caribbean in a few days as a classified system

I am not sure if you have even gotten a chance to look at things


Yeah lol I'm just now pouring over imagery. My first impressions are in post 1079. We shall see I guess.
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Quoting Levi32:


Thanks, and congrats on your upcoming graduation :)

Yeah I am less impressed with both features than I was a few days ago. I still think 90L has a good chance at pulling off subtropical development. It has 2-3 days to sit near the Gulf Stream under an upper low and Andrea in 2007 had just as much dry air. The only major limiting factor I see is the sheer size and broadness of the system. It will take a lot of effort to get a tight circulation.

The Caribbean may still be trouble, but most of the heat looks to be consolidating in the eastern Pacific, so we'll see.


yea Levi but models first bring that area in the EPAC NW and then back to the NE across Central America and just north of Honduras over the next few days
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7831
1081. Skyepony (Mod)
That whole chain looks somewhat active..SO2 for the area..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Good evening all. I've been gone all day at high school graduation....just now catching up on 90L. It looks like the NHC is losing confidence in it.


Congrats on graduation

So what do you think of 90L
Also the EPAC has a yellow circle now and some models want to bring it across into the Caribbean in a few days as a classified system

I am not sure if you have even gotten a chance to look at things
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7831
1079. Levi32
Quoting futuremet:


This is great to hear Levi. My high school graduation is June 4th. I myself was never impressed by 90L, even after it was upgraded to code orange. Marginal SSTs, high wind shear, and dry air intrusion are all features that do not really favor tropical cyclogenesis.

I am particularly interested in the SW Caribbean. The peak of the upward MJO phase will be around May 28th, and an upper level ridge might form over the region--providing favorable conditions for tropical cyclone formation.


Thanks, and congrats on your upcoming graduation :)

Yeah I am less impressed with both features than I was a few days ago. I still think 90L has a good chance at pulling off subtropical development. It has 2-3 days to sit near the Gulf Stream under an upper low and Andrea in 2007 had just as much dry air. The only major limiting factor I see is the sheer size and broadness of the system. It will take a lot of effort to get a tight circulation.

The Caribbean may still be trouble, but most of the heat looks to be consolidating in the eastern Pacific, so we'll see.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1078. xcool



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
I think we might have the first straight figure from BP on the rate that oil is and has been pouring into the gulf.


From NOLA.com
The top kill process involves pumping fabricated "kill mud," which is about twice the density of water, into the well at 50 barrels a minute to overcome the flow.


If the mud flow rate in must be greater than or equal to the rate of oil/gas out, then you get an idea of the actual leak rate.


50bbls/min = 72,000 barrels or 3,024,000 gallons per day! Even if they're shooting for 20% over the (internal to BP) estimated flow rate, that's still 57,600bbls/day. I really wish BP would just come out and say what they know to be true.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Good evening all. I've been gone all day at high school graduation....just now catching up on 90L. It looks like the NHC is losing confidence in it.


This is great to hear Levi. My high school graduation is June 4th. I myself was never impressed by 90L, even after it was upgraded to code orange. Marginal SSTs, high wind shear, and dry air intrusion are all features that do not really favor tropical cyclogenesis.

I am particularly interested in the SW Caribbean. The peak of the upward MJO phase will be around May 28th, and an upper level ridge might form over the region--providing favorable conditions for tropical cyclone formation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1075. Levi32
Quoting hydrus:
Wuzup Levi. I was just turning in. If you graduated tonight congratulations. If you have already graduated, congrats to the ones who did.;)


I did, and thank you :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1074. xcool


new ngp







gfs ooz

Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1073. hydrus
Quoting Skyepony:
This is just about the core of what wants to be an EPAC/WCAR blob.

Costa Rica's Arenal volcano has erupted, spewing geysers of lava, ash and toxic gases from its crater and forcing the evacuation of the national park where it is located. The 1633-metre-tall cone-shaped mountain in northern Costa Rica shuddered into activity at 4am this morning issuing eight successive rivers of lava that flowed down its steep slopes, National Volcanology and Seismology Observatory expert Elicer Duarte said. He said nobody was at risk from the eruptions but authorities as a precaution evacuated the Arenal National Park, 80km north-east of San Jose. The Arenal Volcano is one of Costa Rica's major tourist attractions and the park has scores of hotels, restaurants, nightclubs and shopping centres. No estimates were given of how many people were inside the park when the eruption began. Arenal's last major eruption in July 1968 killed 89 people. Smaller eruptions have occurred at least six times over the past 35 years.
That Arenal is one of the most active in the world according to Wiki.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1072. hydrus
Quoting Levi32:
Good evening all. I've been gone all day at high school graduation....just now catching up on 90L.
Wuzup Levi. I was just turning in. If you graduated tonight congratulations. If you have already graduated, congrats to the ones who did.;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1071. Levi32
Good evening all. I've been gone all day at high school graduation....just now catching up on 90L. It looks like the NHC is losing confidence in it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1070. Skyepony (Mod)
This is just about the core of what wants to be an EPAC/WCAR blob.

Costa Rica's Arenal volcano has erupted, spewing geysers of lava, ash and toxic gases from its crater and forcing the evacuation of the national park where it is located. The 1633-metre-tall cone-shaped mountain in northern Costa Rica shuddered into activity at 4am this morning issuing eight successive rivers of lava that flowed down its steep slopes, National Volcanology and Seismology Observatory expert Elicer Duarte said. He said nobody was at risk from the eruptions but authorities as a precaution evacuated the Arenal National Park, 80km north-east of San Jose. The Arenal Volcano is one of Costa Rica's major tourist attractions and the park has scores of hotels, restaurants, nightclubs and shopping centres. No estimates were given of how many people were inside the park when the eruption began. Arenal's last major eruption in July 1968 killed 89 people. Smaller eruptions have occurred at least six times over the past 35 years.
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all so if you like firefox then you sould test firefox beta 4.0 comeing june 21st
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1068. hydrus
Quoting gator23:


ok he checks out.
I lived right by him at the Players club Apartments in the early 1990,s.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1067. Dakster
Quoting atmoaggie:

IE stands for Inept Explorer...


you get points for that good one.. :)
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1066. Xyrus
Looks like 90L is trying to build a new COC around 30,72, northwest of the old one (using the Dvorak loop on NOAA). A little bit of convection near that point as well.

Not that it will amount to anything. :)

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1065. pottery
I am out.
Have a great night/early morning!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24467
Im using a PC with Firefox. Looks like mym options are scroll down to the bottom after posting, or learn to read/keep up bottom to top.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dakster:
I am assuming you are on a PC using internet explorer as that seems to be an IE thing... I have better luck with firefox... ALso, put IE in compatibility mode. It is the broken page icon next to the address bar.

IE stands for Inept Explorer...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1062. pottery
Quoting CapeCoralStorm:
Looks like i have it on Newest First, yet it still takes me to the top of the page, with the newest post being at the bottom of the page.

Try the other one then.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24467
1061. Dakster
I am assuming you are on a PC using internet explorer as that seems to be an IE thing... I have better luck with firefox... ALso, put IE in compatibility mode. It is the broken page icon next to the address bar.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like i have it on Newest First, yet it still takes me to the top of the page, with the newest post being at the bottom of the page.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CapeCoralStorm:
ok maybe someone can help me out with something. Every time i post, it takes me to the TOP of the page. I then have to scroll all the way down to the bottom. Is there a way to change that, to make it bring me to the last post instead of the 1st?

You want the "newest first" just under dr M's post.
...unless I misread your gripe...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1058. pottery
Click 'order posted' right above here..
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24467
1057. xcool
lmao
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1056. pottery
OK
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24467
ok maybe someone can help me out with something. Every time i post, it takes me to the TOP of the page. I then have to scroll all the way down to the bottom. Is there a way to change that, to make it bring me to the last post instead of the 1st?
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All aboard the naocoaster!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CapeCoralStorm:
No not JFV. Name is Adam. im in fort myers,fl and lived in cape coral during 2004/2005. Had a front row seat for Charley.



ok
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I figured i would speak up this season instead of just lurk. Its kind of funny because i know a bit about quite a few of you from watching over the years.. Yet no one is familiar with me at all. FWIW.. Im 31 and a Paramedic in Lee Co.
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1049. gator23
Quoting CapeCoralStorm:
Not in cape coral anymore. I lived off of Pelican in the sw section of the cape. Now i live in fort myers. I75/Colonial Blvd area.


ok he checks out.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Not in cape coral anymore. I lived off of Pelican in the sw section of the cape. Now i live in fort myers. I75/Colonial Blvd area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1046. pottery
Quoting CapeCoralStorm:
No not JFV. Name is Adam. im in fort myers,fl and lived in cape coral during 2004/2005. Had a front row seat for Charley.

Welcome!
I am in Trinidad, just off the coast of Venezuela.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24467
1045. gator23
Quoting CapeCoralStorm:
No not JFV. Name is Adam. im in fort myers,fl and lived in cape coral during 2004/2005. Had a front row seat for Charley.


Welcome, where in Cape Coral do you live?
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1044. Ossqss
Hummm, Mystery Shuttle sighting ? BTW, this link will probably change, so you may have to put the 24th in soon to view the second item. Don't overlook the item below it also and the 10% chance :) out>

http://spaceweather.com/
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
No not JFV. Name is Adam. im in fort myers,fl and lived in cape coral during 2004/2005. Had a front row seat for Charley.
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1042. gator23
Quoting Tazmanian:



JFV?


Lol i did a double take myself.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1041. pottery
Quoting Tazmanian:



JFV?

Now, now, Taz!
LOL
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24467
Quoting CapeCoralStorm:
Thank you sir. I have been lurking for 5 years.. You would think that I would have learned something by now... lol



JFV?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thank you sir. I have been lurking for 5 years.. You would think that I would have learned something by now... lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1037. xcool


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1036. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Ossqss:


Not sure about that yet. Big movement of water out there, less convection, still pretty potent and will be for some time. The bouys are showing some stuff :)

Station 41048 - W Bermuda
they have been well informed

WEATHER ADVISORY:
VACAPES OP AREA VALID 251200Z THROUGH 270000Z:
SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD 9 TO 12 FT IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST OPAREA
BY 251200Z WITH THE 9 TO 12 FT SEAS EXPANDING NORTHWARD TO 37N EAST
OF 75W BY 260000Z. SEAS BUILD 11-15FT SOUTH OF 35N (SOUTHERN VACAPES)
BY 260000Z. CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE OPAREA THROUGH 261200Z THEN
SLOWLY ABATE 8 TO 10 FT BY 270000Z WITH CONTINUED ABATEMENT THEREAFTER.
CHERRY POINT OPAREA VALID 251200Z THROUGH 271200Z:
SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD 9 TO 12 FT IN THE EASTERN ONE-THIRD OF THE
MODLOC BY 251200Z SPREADING OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE MODLOC
BY 260000Z WITH SEAS BUILDING 11 TO 15 FT IN THE EXTREME EASTERN MODLOC.
CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE OPAREA THROUGH 270000Z THEN SLOWLY ABATE 8
TO 10 FT BY 271200Z WITH CONTINUED ABATEMENT THEREAFTER.
CHARLESTON OPAREA VALID 251800Z THROUGH 271200Z:
SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD 9 TO 12 FT IN THE EXTREME EASTERN MODLOC
BY 251800Z SPREADING WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL OPAREA BY 260000Z. SEAS IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST MODLOC BUILD 11 TO 15 FT BY 260600Z. CONDITIONS
PERSIST THROUGH 270000Z THEN SLOWLY ABATE 8 TO 10 FT IN THE EXTREME
EASTERN MODLOC BY 271200Z WITH CONTINUE ABATEMENT THEREAFTER.
JACKSONVILLE OPAREA VALID 251800Z THROUGH 271200Z:
SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD 9 TO 12 FT IN THE EXTREME EASTERN MODLOC BY 251800Z
SPREADING WESTWARD TO 80-30W BY 260600Z AS SEAS IN THE NORTHEAST OPAREA
BUILD 11 TO 15FT. CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH 270000Z THEN SLOWLY ABATE 8
TO 10 FT EAST OF 80W BY 271200Z WITH CONTINUED ABATEMENT THEREAFTER.
2. SHOULD CONDITIONS FORECAST NOT BE ACCEPTABLE, OTSR ADVISES ALL UNITS
OPERATING IN AFFECTED OPAREAS, WHOSE OPERATIONAL LIMITS ARE MET OR
EXCEEDED, MOVE TO PROTECTED WATERS PRIOR TO ONSET ON HIGH SEAS.
3. REQUEST ACTION ADDRESSES ACKNOWLEDGE RECEIPT OF THIS MESSAGE.
4. METEOROLOGICAL SITUATION AT 241200Z:
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST INFLUENCING THE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR BERMUDA WILL
SLOWLY TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND INTERACT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS
THROUGHOUT THE OPAREAS.
5. VACAPES OPAREA 24 HOUR FORECAST COMMENCING 250000Z.
A. SKY, WEATHER: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MIST, RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND PATCHY FOG.
B. VSBY (NM): 7, REDUCING 3 TO 5 IN RAINSHOWERS, 2 TO 4 IN MIST,
1 TO 3 IN THUNDERSTORMS, FURTHER REDUCING LESS THAN 1 IN FOG.
C. SURFACE WIND (KTS): NORTHWESTERN OPAREA: EAST-NORTHEAST 10 TO 15
GUSTS 20, INCREASING EAST-NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 GUSTS 25 BY 25/06Z,
THROUGH END OF PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERN OPAREA: EAST-NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 GUSTS 25, INCREASING
EAST-NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 GUSTS 35 BY 25/06Z, FURTHER INCREASING EAST-
NORTHEAST 25 TO 30 GUSTS 40 BY 25/12Z THROUGH END OF PERIOD. EXPECT
GUSTS 40 IN/NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
D. COMBINED SEAS (FT): COASTAL: SOUTHEAST 4 TO 6, BUILDING SOUTHEAST
5 TO 7 BY 25/12Z, BUILDING SOUTHEAST 6 TO 8 BY 25/18Z, FURTHER
BUILDING SOUTHEAST 7 TO 9 BY 26/00Z.
SEAWARD: SOUTHEAST 7 TO 9, BUILDING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 12 BY 25/06Z,
FURTHER BUILDING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 14 BY 25/12Z, BUILDING SOUTHEAST
11 TO 15 IN THE SOUTHERN OPAREA AFTER 25/18Z.
E. MAX/MIN TEMPS (F): 76/65.
F. SST(F/C): COASTAL: 61/16. VICINITY OF GULF STREAM: 76/24.
G. OUTLOOK TO 48 HOURS: WINDS: NORTHWESTERN OPAREA: EAST-NORTHEAST
15 TO 20 GUSTS 25 INCREASING EAST-NORTHEAST 18 TO 23 GUSTS 28 BY
26/06Z, DECREASING NORTHEAST 13 TO 18 GUSTS 23 BY 27/00Z.
SOUTHEASTERN OPAREA: EAST-NORTHEAST 25 TO 30 GUSTS 40, DECREASING
EAST-NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 GUSTS 35 BY 26/06Z, FURTHER DECREASING EAST-
NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 GUSTS 30 BY 26/18Z THROUGH END OF PERIOD.
SEAS: COASTAL: SOUTHEAST 7 TO 9, ABATING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 BY 27/00Z.
SEAWARD: SOUTHEAST 11 TO 15, ABATING 8 TO 10 BY 27/00Z.
6. CHERRY PT OPAREA 24 HOUR FORECAST COMMENCING 250000Z.
A. SKY, WEATHER: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MIST, RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND PATCHY FOG.
B. VSBY (NM): 7, REDUCING 3 TO 5 IN RAINSHOWERS, 2 TO 4 IN MIST,
1 TO 3 IN THUNDERSTORMS, FURTHER REDUCING LESS THAN 1 IN FOG.
C. SURFACE WIND (KTS): EAST-NORTHEAST 18 TO 23 GUSTS 28, INCREASING
NORTHEAST 23 TO 28 GUSTS 38 BY 25/06Z, FURTHER INCREASING NORTHEAST
25 TO 30 GUSTS 40 BY 25/12Z, THROUGH END OF PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTS 40
IN/NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
D. COMBINED SEAS (FT): COASTAL: SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7, BUILDING SOUTHEAST
7 TO 9 BY 25/12Z, FURTHER BUILDING EAST-SOUTHEAST 8 TO 10 BY 26/00Z.
SEAWARD: SOUTHEAST 8 TO 10, BUILDING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 12 BY 25/06Z,
FURTHER BUILDING SOUTHEAST 12 TO 14 BY 25/12Z, EAST-SOUTHEAST 11
TO 15 AFTER 25/18Z.
E. MAX/MIN TEMPS (F): 76/66.
F. SST (F/C): COASTAL:63/17. VICINITY OF GULF STREAM: 74/23.
G. OUTLOOK TO 48 HOURS: WINDS: NORTHEAST 25 TO 30 GUSTS 40,
DECREASING NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 GUSTS 35 BY 26/06Z THROUGH END OF
FORECAST.
SEAS: COASTAL: EAST-SOUTHEAST 8 TO 10.
SEAWARD: EAST-SOUTHEAST 11 TO 15, ABATING 9 TO 12 BY 27/00Z.
7. CHARLESTON OPAREA 24 HOUR FORECAST COMMENCING 250000Z.
A. SKY, WEATHER: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MIST, RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
B. VSBY (NM): 7, REDUCING 3 TO 5 IN RAINSHOWERS, 2 TO 4 IN MIST,
FURTHER REDUCING 1 TO 3 IN THUNDERSTORMS.
C. SURFACE WIND (KTS): WINDS: EAST-NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 GUSTS 25,
BACKING NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 GUSTS 35 BY 25/12Z, FURTHER INCREASING
NORTHEAST 25 TO 30 GUSTS 40 BY 25/18Z. EXPECT GUSTS 40 IN/NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
D. COMBINED SEAS (FT): COASTAL: SOUTHEAST 2 TO 4, BUILDING SOUTHEAST
3 TO 5 BY 25/06Z, FURTHER BUILDING EAST-SOUTHEAST 4 TO 6 BY 25/12Z,
FURTHER BUILDING EAST-SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7 BY 25/18Z.
SEAWARD: SOUTHEAST 6 TO 8, BUILDING SOUTHEAST 8 TO 10 BY 25/06Z,
FURTHER BUILDING EAST-SOUTHEAST 10 TO 12 BY 25/12Z, BUILDING EAST-
SOUTHEAST 12 TO 14 BY 26/00Z.
E. MAX/MIN TEMPS (F): 82/70.
F. SST (F/C): COASTAL: 76/24.
G. OUTLOOK TO 48 HOURS: WINDS: NORTHEAST 25 TO 30 GUSTS 40,
DECREASING NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 GUSTS 35 BY 26/06Z, VEERING NORTH-
NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 GUSTS 35 BY 26/18Z.
SEAS: COASTAL: EAST-SOUTHEAST 5 TO 7, BUILDING EAST 7 TO 9 BY
26/06Z, ABATING EAST 6 TO 8 BY 26/12Z, FURTHER ABATING EAST 5 TO 7
BY 26/18Z.
SEAWARD: BUILDING EAST-SOUTHEAST 11 TO 15 EASTERN OPAREA EARLY IN PERIOD.
8. JAX OPAREA 24 HOUR FORECAST COMMENCING 250000Z.
A. SKY, WEATHER: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MIST, RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
B. VSBY (NM): 7, REDUCING 3 TO 5 IN RAINSHOWERS, 2 TO 4 IN MIST,
FURTHER REDUCING 1 TO 3 IN THUNDERSTORMS.
C. SURFACE WIND (KTS): WINDS: WESTERN OPAREA: EAST-NORTHEAST 8 TO 13,
INCREASING EAST-NORTHEAST 13 TO 18 GUSTS 23 BY 25/06Z, BACKING
NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 GUSTS 25 BY 25/12Z, FURTHER INCREASING NORTHEAST
20 TO 25 GUSTS 35 BY 25/18Z, FURTHER INCREASING NORTH-NORTHEAST
25 TO 30 GUSTS 40 BY 26/00Z.
EASTERN OPAREA: EAST-NORTHEAST 18 TO 23 GUSTS 28, VEERING NORTHEAST
18 TO 23 GUSTS 28 BY 25/06Z, INCREASING NORTHEAST 23 TO 28 GUSTS 38
BY 25/12Z THROUGH END OF PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTS 40 IN/NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.
D. COMBINED SEAS (FT): COASTAL: EAST-SOUTHEAST 2 TO 4, BUILDING EAST-
SOUTHEAST 3 TO 5 BY 25/12Z, BUILDING EAST 4 TO 6 BY 26/00Z.
SEAWARD: EAST-SOUTHEAST 6 TO 8, BUILDING EAST-SOUTHEAST 8 TO 10 BY
25/06Z, FURTHER BUILDING EAST 9 TO 12 BY 25/18Z.
E. MAX/MIN TEMPS (F): 86/75.
F. SST (F/C): COASTAL: 73/22. VICINITY OF GULF STREAM: 75/24.
G. OUTLOOK TO 48 HOURS: WINDS: WESTERN OPAREA: NORTH-NORTHEAST
25 TO 30 GUSTS 40, DECREASING NORTH-NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 GUSTS 35 BY
26/06Z, FURTHER DECREASING NORTH-NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 GUSTS 25 BY
26/18Z.
EASTERN OPAREA: NORTHEAST 23 TO 28 GUSTS 38, DECREASING NORTHEAST
20 TO 25 GUSTS 30 BY 26/06Z, FURTHER DECREASING NORTH-NORTHEAST
15 TO 20 GUSTS 25 BY 26/18Z, INCREASING NORTHERLY 20 TO 25 GUSTS 35
BY 27/00Z.
SEAS: COASTAL: EAST 4 TO 6, BUILDING EAST 5 TO 7 BY 26/06Z, FURTHER
ABATING EAST-NORTHEAST 4 TO 6 BY 27/00Z.
SEAWARD: EAST 9 TO 12 BUILDING NORTH-NORTHEAST 11 TO 15 IN THE
NORTHEAST OPAREA EARLY IN PERIOD.
9. PORT CANAVERAL OPAREA 24 HOUR FORECAST COMMENCING 250000Z.
A. SKY, WEATHER: PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAINSHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
B. CLOUDS: BASES/TOPS (FT): 3,000/15,000
SHWERS: BASES/TOPS (FT): 2,000/24,000
TSTMS: BASES/TOPS (FT): 1,000/40,000
C. VSBY (NM): 7, 3 TO 5 IN RAINSHOWERS, 1 TO 3 IN THUNDERSTORMS
D. SURFACE WIND (KTS): EAST-NORTHEAST 8 TO 13, BACKING NORTHEAST
8 TO 13 BY 25/06Z, INCREASING NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 GUSTS 20 BY 25/18Z,
FURTHER INCREASING NORTH-NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 GUSTS 25 BY 26/00Z.
EXPECT GUSTS 40 IN/NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
E. COMBINED SEAS (FT): EAST 4 TO 6, BUILDING EAST 5 TO 7 BY 25/12Z,
FURTHER BUILDING EAST-NORTHEAST 6 TO 8 BY 25/18Z, FURTHER BUILDING
EAST-NORTHEAST 8 TO 10 BY 26/00Z.
F. MAX/MIN TEMPS (F): 88/76.
G. SST (F/C): 75/24.
H. MIN ALT (INS): 29.86
I. MAX/MIN P.A. (FT): 121/38.
J. OUTLOOK TO 48 HOURS: WINDS: NORTH-NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 GUSTS 25,
BACKING NORTH-NORTHWEST 15 TO 20 GUSTS 25 BY 26/06Z, VEERING NORTH
13 TO 18 GUSTS 23 BY 27/00Z.
SEAS: EAST-NORTHEAST 8 TO 10 ABATING EAST-NORTHEAST 7 TO 9 BY 27/00Z.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1035. SLU
Quoting Weather456:
Consider all possibilities....it may be an EPAC event also.



Nice to have you here 456. Might be a season you dont want to miss ..... and one we can't afford not to have you around too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1034. xcool
NHC pulling the plugs no lies
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.