90L heads for North Carolina, drenches Bermuda; oil spill changing little

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:54 PM GMT on May 24, 2010

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An extratropical low pressure system (90L) between the Bahamas and Bermuda is moving north-northwest towards North Carolina and is close to tropical storm strength. Last night's ASCAT pass saw a large area of 35 mph winds to the north and east of the center, and buoy 41048 to northeast of 90L's center was seeing sustained ENE winds of 36 mph, gusting to 43 mph this morning. Bermuda is seeing some heavy weather from this storm, with winds blowing at 35 mph on the west end of the island, and the Bermuda radar showing an area of moderate to heavy rain moving over the island. Seas are running 5 - 10 feet in the outer waters of Bermuda today, and are expected to increase to 10 - 14 feet tonight before diminishing on Tuesday.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 90L this morning.

Strong upper-levels winds out of the west are creating about 25 knots of wind shear over 90L, but the shear has been gradually decreasing over the past day. Visible satellite loops show that 90L does not have a well-defined surface circulation. The main thunderstorm activity is in a large curved band to the north and northeast of the center. This band is several hundred miles removed from the center, which is characteristic of subtropical storms. I expect that 90L will continue to grow more subtropical in nature today through Wednesday as the shear continues to fall. Sea surface temperatures are near 25°C today and will fall to 23 - 24°C on Tuesday. This is warm enough to support a subtropical storm, but probably not a tropical storm. On Wednesday, 90L will be nearing the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and SSTs will warm again, to the 24 - 25°C range. This is still pretty cool for a tropical storm, and I expect 90L will never become fully tropical. To understand the difference between a tropical and subtropical storm and why we care, see my subtropical storm tutorial.

The SHIPS model predicts that shear will fall to the medium 10 - 20 knot range by Tuesday. A large amount of dry air to 90L's southwest associated with the upper-level trough of low pressure on top of the storm, as seen on water vapor satellite loops , will hamper transition of 90L to a subtropical or tropical storm. The system will move slowly towards the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days, making its closest approach to the coast on Wednesday, when most of the models indicate the center will be 200 - 400 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. All of the major models currently predict that 90L will not make landfall, but will move slowly eastward out to sea on Thursday, when a trough of low pressure moving across the Eastern U.S. picks up the storm. There presently isn't much to be concerned with about this storm, as it appears that it will remain offshore and will become, at worst, a 40 - 50 mph subtropical storm. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 90L a medium (30% chance) of developing into a depression or tropical/subtropical storm. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on 90L.

Western Caribbean disturbance
A small region of disturbed weather has developed in the Western Caribbean, off the east coast of Nicaragua. Moisture is expected to increase across in this area in the coming days, and by Saturday, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that shear will drop low enough to permit the possible development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression. This storm would then move northeastward over eastern Cuba early next week. The other models keep the shear high in the Caribbean all week, and do not show anything developing. Thus, the Western Caribbean bears watching later this week, but the conditions appear marginal for development.

Moderate risk of severe weather today in northern Plains
The Storm Prediction Center has placed western Nebraska and portions of South and North Dakota under their "Moderate" risk for severe weather today. They warn that "a couple of strong and possibly long-track tornadoes appear possible given the forecast scenario." Keep an eye on the activity today with our Severe Weather Page.

Major oil threat continues for the coast of Louisiana
Light winds are expected to prevail across the northern Gulf of Mexico all week, resulting in continued oiling threats to the Louisiana shoreline from the mouth of the Mississippi River westward 150 miles, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. There is no longer a flow of oil moving southwards towards the Loop Current, and the oil that did move southwards last week was mostly entrained into a counter-clockwise rotating eddy attached to the northern boundary of the Loop Current. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery over the weekend showed that most of this oil has dispersed, and very little of this oil is now visible from space (Figure 2.) Imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument and from NOAA aircraft did not show any oil in the Loop Current headed towards the Florida Keys over the weekend, so that is good news. NOAA comments that there may be some "scattered tar balls" in the Loop Current headed towards the Florida Keys. I expect these scattered tar balls have completed the full loop of the Loop Current and are now headed east towards the Keys, and will pass the Dry Tortugas and Key West sometime Wednesday - Saturday. My guess is that the oil and its accompanying plume of toxic dispersants will be too thin and scattered to cause significant problems in the Keys.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 11:41am EDT Saturday May 22, 2010, by the European Envisat-1 satellite. Only scattered patches of oil are evident in the counter-clockwise rotating eddy on the northern boundary of the Loop Current. A small amount of oil appears to be in the Loop Current, and is moving southward. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Future threats to the Keys
Mostly offshore winds are expected this week over the northern Gulf of Mexico, thanks to the approach of the 90L storm along the Southeast U.S. coast. It is uncertain if these winds will be strong enough to push oil southward into the Loop Current, though at least one ocean trajectory model does show this occurring. As I discussed in my post Wednesday, the Loop Current is very unstable right now, and is ready to cut off into a giant clockwise-rotating eddy, an event that occurs every 6 - 11 months. At least one ocean model (the Global HYCOM model from the HYCOM consortium) is predicting that such an eddy will form this week. In the event a Loop Current Eddy does break off, it would create a rotating ring of water 250 miles in diameter to the south of the oil spill. Oil moving southwards would tend to enter the giant eddy and circulate around it, not threatening any land areas. Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecast Service has a nice discussion on the possibility of the Loop Current cutting off into a Loop Current Eddy. Keep in mind, though, that during the first month that a Loop Current Eddy forms, it exchanges a considerable amount of water with the Loop Current. Thus we can expect that a portion of any oil moving southwards into a Loop Current Eddy will find its way into the Loop Current and move past the Florida Keys.

Oil spill resources
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll be back with a new post Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Orcasystems:


Stop that!!!
I had to look out the window quick... I tee off in 90 minutes.

BTW, where be here??

Orca, I'm crushed... you don't remember. Salt Lake City, UT area. I posted some pictures.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Do you feel at this time that 90L will become a named storm?


He's gonna call it Jamaica.
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Quoting CaneWarning:
The oil spill is making me more mad as time passess. No more drilling in the gulf! I can't imagine all the damage this spill is doing and will continue to do as the oil is still flowing.

If you want 10 dollar per gallon gas prices then continue to take that viewpoint. Otherwise we need that 30% of our oil supply coming from the gulf.
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GFS 12z shows an intense EPAC cyclone
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Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Hi guys! Can you believe it is SNOWING here right now?


Stop that!!!
I had to look out the window quick... I tee off in 90 minutes.

BTW, where be here??
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Quoting Weather456:
I would keep an eye on the SW Caribbean or the adjacent areas of the EPAC over the next 3 days as conditions are expected to be conducive. Tropical cyclone formation probabilities have already begun to increase in the vicinity.

90L may reach close enough to the east coast to 1) take advantage of the Gulf stream and 2) deliver some good rainfall.



Do you feel at this time that 90L will become a named storm?
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Hi guys! Can you believe it is SNOWING here right now?
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I would keep an eye on the SW Caribbean or the adjacent areas of the EPAC over the next 3 days as conditions are expected to be conducive. Tropical cyclone formation probabilities have already begun to increase in the vicinity.

90L may reach close enough to the east coast to 1) take advantage of the Gulf stream and 2) deliver some good rainfall.

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Quoting Weather456:


Except it won't be defined as a La Nina until the ONI goes below -0.5. The ONI is calculated on a seasonal basis of three months.


Yup, im aware of the ONI.

Just showing the classic Nina presentation.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15889
Looks like the eddy is about to break off any minute from the Loop Current......
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9120
Windsat storm centered image
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73. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


It really does make you sick to your stomach. My heart goes out to the people and wildlife of Louisiana, who are currently taking the brunt of the damage. Also the whole GOM, with the majority of the oil under the surface, to remain for who knows how long.


And with what may follow in the tropics this year...terrible combination.

I'll say it again...for now, without a hurricane...that oil spill is a disaster of epic proportions.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
It looks as if 90L will become an extremely low-end TROPICAL! storm for about 12 hours, then fade off to a depression and go all over the place, most likely making a loop and heading east...
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
La Nina.



Except it won't be defined as a La Nina until the ONI goes below -0.5. The ONI is calculated on a seasonal basis of three months.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
I see 90L remains very disorganized at this hour with an ill-defined low pressure center
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Quoting IKE:
That oil spill is ruining the GOM. If they were going to have this problem stopping it...then don't drill at 5,000 feet! I look for this to go on until the relief well is finished. About the middle to end of July.




Just wait until a high pressure heat dome stays over the GOM for a week or 2 this summer.

I don't smell it here...inland Florida panhandle. I'm sorry for what everyone is going through over this disaster.

Yeah...it pisses me off.


It really does make you sick to your stomach. My heart goes out to the people and wildlife of Louisiana, who are currently taking the brunt of the damage. Also the whole GOM, with the majority of the oil under the surface, to remain for who knows how long.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Come to Sydney.


Hmm now that is an idea.. been there and loved it :)
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Quoting TampaSpin:


It sure seems the Pressure flow it greater now.....I don't know ......i just look at it for a while and have to stop..
That's what I was seeing, it seems to have more pressure behind it. I agree, sickening!

Are there fish down there? Some of that 'debris' floating around has a motion like fish... but you can't see clearly what it is in the video.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It is but I am very sorry to say but I really think a lot of Jamaicans have no conscience.
I agree with you 100% and actually most of my friends are Jamaicans but I never seen them go anywhere yet that they never had a hand in destroying, just take our Island for example, most the crime we have here today stemmed from their influence or direct connections , very sad!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
GOES 13 SST Animation of the Loop Current
April 26 - May 24 2010
Quicktime Movie

The Loop current has shed the Northern Eddy.


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La Nina.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15889
Quoting TampaSpin:


Bro, i don't know that i have not already passed FUBAR. Dang i love my waters in the GOM for all the fun i do.....this truly is making me sick to my tummy each passing second as this soga continues with what seems BP and our Government seems its no really big deal not just my opinion but, to many.....I don't have any idea what the poeple of New Orleans felt with there ordeal but, this is approaching the pocket book to many that depend on the GOM as a source of many the same harm on the pocket book.


I know people are Peeved big time... and they don't really have anyone to vent it onto.

The really sad thing about this is that the only group who can fix it is BP or some other major Oil Company. They are the only ones with any kind of expertise on this.

The Government can't take it over..they have absolutely no idea what to do. Is it going to go on until the relief well is drilled...yes.

Is BP doing everything they could possibly do.. I would say yes, this is hurting them where it counts... the pocket book and public opinion.

Are they telling us everything... not a chance.. they don't want to add "oil to the fire" (sorry couldn't resist the pun) in a law suit.

Are you guys FUBAR... not yet.. but you will be soon.

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After looking at the last frame or so on 90L, I'm giving it a moderate chance for this to be named, due to the fact nothing happened last night, dry air is still strong, and there not much in the way of convection and very hard to see any real dominate circulation. However, it has till Thursday before the next trough sweeps it out to sea. It should enter the Gulf Stream and could turn Subtropical from there, but the chance is moderate. I'm pretty much in line with the NHC on this one so far.
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Quoting DEKRE:


This is not oil, it is an oil in water emulsion which (I guess) is about 70 % water.


Tell that to the people it is already affecting.....GEESH! LOOK AGAIN!

OIL SPILL VIDEO
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Starting to run out of vacation spots... between events like that...and the oil spill...and what looks like a very active season approaching... I might have to change the vacation plans to something like Victoria :(

Come to Sydney.
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Major change in Loop Current

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Quoting Orcasystems:


Reality check... just read your post and went.. darn... it is almost June. I am lost as per normal.
its 79.8 with a heat index of 90.4 ya june is not far away
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53778
Quoting JamesSA:

Is it just my eyesight, or has the flow rate increased?


It sure seems the Pressure flow it greater now.....I don't know ......i just look at it for a while and have to stop..
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Quoting Weather456:


Very true. It's just who they are. The best you can do is avoid them.
Agreed but in Cayman it is very difficult as we have a large amount of Jamaicans. Then again, maybe they come here to avoid the violence over there. We might have a few here that commit crimes but not many. My son-in-law is a Jamaican and he even said he does not want to go there for now. :(
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AP: Offshore rigs have history of bad cement jobs

by Mitch Weiss and Jeff Donn / Associated Press

wwltv.com

Posted on May 23, 2010 at 11:00 PM

Updated today at 6:31 PM

The tricky process of sealing an offshore oil well with cement -- suspected as a major contributor to the Gulf of Mexico disaster -- has failed dozens of times in the past, according to an Associated Press investigation.

Yet federal regulators give drillers a free hand in this crucial safety step -- another example of lax regulation regarding events leading up to the April 20 explosion on the Deepwater Horizon oil rig.

Federal regulators don't regulate what type of cement is used, leaving it up to oil and gas companies. The drillers are urged to simply follow guidelines of the American Petroleum Institute, an industry trade group.

Far more stringent federal and state standards and controls exist on cement work for roads, bridges and buildings.

While the chain of failures on Deepwater Horizon is under investigation, rig owner Transocean has singled out cement work as one likely fundamental cause of the blowout.

Even before Transocean pointed to cementing, independent experts suspected it partly because faulty cement work -- either badly mixed or poorly placed against well walls -- is so prevalent at offshore wells.

An AP review of federal accident and incident reports on offshore wells shows that the cementing process has been implicated at least 34 times since 1978. Many of the reports, available from the U.S. Minerals Management Service that regulates offshore wells, identify the cause simply as "poor cement job."

-- In a November 2005 accident where the Deepwater Horizon was positioned above another well in the Gulf, faulty cement work allowed wall-supporting steel casing to come apart. Almost 15,000 gallons of drilling fluid spilled into the Gulf.

-- Just a week later in a nearby well at another platform, cement improperly seeped through drilling fluid. As a result of an additive meant to quicken setting time, the cement then failed to block a gas influx into the well. When the crew finally replaced heavy drilling fluid with lighter seawater, as they also did last month before the blowout at Deepwater Horizon, the well flowed out of control and much of the crew had to be evacuated.

-- Cementing was identified by federal investigators as a glaring cause of an August 2007 blowout, also off Louisiana. They said, "The cement quality is very poor, showing what looks like large areas of no cement."

Reports by MMS, a branch of the Interior Department, also provide evidence of the role bad cement work has played in accidents. One study named cementing as a factor in 18 of 39 well blowouts at Gulf rigs from 1992 to 2006. Another attributed five of nine out-of-control wells in the year 2000 to cementing problems.

------

Cementing in the oil rig business is a sensitive, involved process. Well cement constitutes an essential barrier that is difficult to install and control, said Gene Beck, a petroleum engineer at Texas A&M at College Station, Texas.

Deepwater wells pose special challenges: severe pressures and temperatures, as well as the need for specialized equipment and lots of cement. The wellhead of the Deepwater Horizon operation sat on the ocean floor, nearly a mile from the surface. The drill hole itself went another 13,000 feet into rock.

All cement begins as a slurry with cement flakes and water. Contractors then add ingredients to make the cement set at the right time and to keep out gas and oil.

There are three major U.S. cementing companies: Halliburton, Schlumberger and BJ Services. Cementing is typically performed by such rig contractors as part of a broad range of drilling services that they supply.

Halliburton, which had the Deepwater Horizon job, mixes in nitrogen to make its slurry more elastic. The nitrogen also helps create a lightweight cement that resembles a gray foamy mousse and bonds better to the casing.

But the recipe also depends on the job, because cement must respond to varying pressures and temperatures. Cement contractors work closely with oil and gas companies on the formulas for individual wells. The oil and gas companies have the final say on what is used.

Once the consistency of the mix is decided on, it is pumped deep into the well, where it first sinks to the bottom and then oozes upward to fill the narrow spaces between the steel casing pipe and rock walls. When the cement sets, the casing and cement are supposed to form an impenetrable wall to keep gas or oil from pushing into the hole anywhere but the bottom, where its flow up the pipe can be controlled.

But if gas bubbles invade the setting cement, they can form a channel for pressurized gas and oil to surge uncontrollably up the well, usually around the casing. The cement must be strong enough to withstand up to 5,000 pounds of pressure per square inch, to keep the well walls from collapsing.

"Cement is cheap, and it fixes a lot of problems, but it's not a good place to cut corners," Beck said. Many oil and gas companies will scrimp, though, if they don't think they need all the ingredients in the cement, he said. Cement is often squeezed in later to try to fill gaps, but Beck said the success rate of this remedial work is low.

And if cement was part of the cause of the Deepwater Horizon catastrophe, it also could be part of the remedy. Two relief wells are being drilled to intersect the leaking well and plug it with cement.

------

Halliburton was completing the final cement work on the exploratory well beneath Deepwater Horizon in the wee hours of April 20. It added an initial cement plug to the well to act as a cap until a later production phase.

Workers started running a series of tests to check if the cement and casing could stand up to sufficient pressure. The first tests of outward, positive pressure showed no problems.

In the first sign of trouble, though, the well then failed a negative pressure test, where internal fluid pressure is reduced, according to congressional testimony from a BP PLC executive. It showed different pressures in two areas, indicating an unseen leak somewhere in the well.

Despite the test, managers eventually decided to replace drilling fluid with seawater and set a final cement plug so the well could be mothballed pending a decision to possibly begin production drilling.

And while it is not yet clear what sections of the casing or cement may have failed -- or why -- it is known that the blowout ignited and exploded before the last plug was set.

In the aftermath of the blowout, questions have been raised about the safety of nitrogen-laced cement foam. But several cementing experts told the AP it is a sound technique. Halliburton says it has used such a mix on scores of wells and told a congressional committee that the cementing on the Deepwater Horizon job was successful.

Halliburton did not respond to AP requests for comment.

In the wake of the accident, some experts support mandatory uniform cement standards for underwater wells. "When you change the composition, it should meet a certain standard. Such standards exist for the building construction industry," said Surendra Shah, Northwestern University engineering professor and director of the Center for Advanced Cement-Based Materials at Evanston, Ill.

Elmer Danenberger, a retired chief of offshore regulatory programs for MMS, told a congressional committee this month: "An industry standard should be developed to address cementing problems, how they can be prevented, and the actions that should be taken when they do occur."

Many construction projects use concrete hardened with sand and gravel aggregate, but cement is the glue that holds it together. On federal projects, "just about everything is regulated, from the thickness of the concrete, to the strength of the concrete, to the type of aggregate that's used," said Brian Turmail, spokesman for the Associated General Contractors of America.

Oil companies test the thickness and strength of cement in wells by shooting sound waves into the cement. This kind of test, called a sonic logging test, wasn't run on April 20 at Deepwater Horizon. A Halliburton manager said it's the most realistic way of testing the quality of the cement bond, but a BP manager said pressure tests are better and log tests are used only if there's already sign of a problem.

Either way, these tests are not 100 percent reliable. Sometimes, oil companies don't discover a bad cementing job until it fails.

------

There can be early warning signs, though. Federal regulators have known for years that a condition called sustained casing pressure -- usually gas caught between the casing and well wall -- is a major problem that typically signals bad cement work.

In the August 2007 blowout, investigators cited tests showing high casing pressures that could have indicated suspect cement work. The platform owner reported a problem to federal regulators, but nothing was done before the blowout, the report said.

More than 8,000 of the 22,000 offshore wells on federal leases, most of them in the Gulf, show sustained pressure, according to government reports.

This month, in a move in the works long before the Deepwater Horizon explosion, regulators wrote in the Federal Register that the oil and gas industry in the Gulf has "suffered serious accidents as a result of high sustained casing pressure, and the lack of proper control and monitoring of these pressures."

New rules take effect June 3. But they take a conservative watch-and-wait approach and demand only routines already carried out around the industry: a management program with monitoring and diagnostic testing. If operators discover sustained pressure, they must notify MMS of plans to fix it.

There are no new record-keeping or reporting requirements in the new rules, which are backed by industry. In the rule-making documents, regulators -- long accused of being too cozy with the industry -- said the regulations would cost the entire industry only $5 million, compared with the "impracticable and exceedingly costly" $2 billion alternative of fixing the wells outright.

"Unfortunately, this is yet another crisis in a long line of accidents caused by cementing problems in drilling," said U.S. Rep. Diana DeGette, D-Colo., a member of the Energy Committee looking into the cause of the blowout.

MMS refused to answer specific questions about its cementing policies, including why it took so long to craft the pressure regulations and whether MMS has issued any citations for cement problems.

"All of these questions are questions that we are reviewing," said Interior Department spokeswoman Kendra Barkoff.

------

The Associated Press National Investigative Team can be reached at investigate(at)ap.org

(Copyright 2010 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.
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50. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It is but I am very sorry to say but I really think a lot of Jamaicans have no conscience.


Nothing against the many good one's in Jamaica, but...I wouldn't go there. I'll stay here at my house.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting TampaSpin:
For those wanting and keep asking for the Live BP Oil Spill Video feed i have place it up so you can easily view it. Under the Tab

OIL SPILL VIDEO

This is truly sickening to watch! Hope this helps for those that keep asking.

Is it just my eyesight, or has the flow rate increased?
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Quoting IKE:


That's pathetic. Killing innocent people.

It is but I am very sorry to say but I really think a lot of Jamaicans have no conscience.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I just hope they fix it before it reaches the point of FUBAR :(


Bro, i don't know that i have not already passed FUBAR. Dang i love my waters in the GOM for all the fun i do.....this truly is making me sick to my tummy each passing second as this soga continues with what seems BP and our Government seems its no really big deal not just my opinion but, to many.....I don't have any idea what the poeple of New Orleans felt with there ordeal but, this is approaching the pocket book to many that depend on the GOM as a source of many the same harm on the pocket book.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Starting to run out of vacation spots... between events like that...and the oil spill...and what looks like a very active season approaching... I might have to change the vacation plans to something like Victoria :(


Only parts of Jamaica are like that. The tourist resorts and recreational spots are secluded away from the capital.

Also you can always come to Saint Kitts :)
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076



oil spill gulf of mexico 2010
Added by Matthew Hinton, The Times-Picayune on May 23, 2010 at 6:48 PM

MATTHEW HINTON / THE TIMES-PICAYUNE A nesting pelican in Barataria Bay near Cat Island is covered in brown oil from the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill in the Gulf of Mexico Sunday May 23 2010.



pelican eggs
Added by Bob Marshall, The Times-Picayune on May 23, 2010 at 6:53 PM

BOB MARSHALL/THE TIMES-PICAYUNE Oil from the BP blowout in the Gulf of Mexico seeps into a brown pelican nesting area in Barataria Bay. Thousands of pelicans, along with some terns, roseate spoonbills and herons, are nesting on a series of small mangrove and grass islands on the eastern side of the bay. Oil absorbing booms were placed around the rookeries sometime after Wednesday, but oil still managed to soak about the first six inches of the shorelines and seep into the nesting areas through gaps in the booms. May 23, 2010.
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43. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Jamaica is constantly "at war". The sad thing is that the politicians are hand in hand with the gang leaders and they are killing off their own people including women and children. If they have a beef with you they do not find anything wrong with killing your mother, wife child etc.


That's pathetic. Killing innocent people.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
42. IKE
That oil spill is ruining the GOM. If they were going to have this problem stopping it...then don't drill at 5,000 feet! I look for this to go on until the relief well is finished. About the middle to end of July.


Quoting wadedanielsmith:
24:

I think it's making me sick.

You can smell oil on the wind even in Springfield, LA north of lake Maurepas. What's more, the wind is barely even blowing here right now, it's just gotten that bad...

I went outside for a few minutes just now, and it gave me a sick, queasy feeling just being out there. It's like sniffing a tank of gasoline from too close...


I don't know how people farther south are even dealing with it...


Just wait until a high pressure heat dome stays over the GOM for a week or 2 this summer.

I don't smell it here...inland Florida panhandle. I'm sorry for what everyone is going through over this disaster.

Yeah...it pisses me off.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Weather456:


Actually I was just discussing it. I know gangs and they will support their members at any cost and its no surprise it happened in Jamaica. It was avoidable though.


Starting to run out of vacation spots... between events like that...and the oil spill...and what looks like a very active season approaching... I might have to change the vacation plans to something like Victoria :(
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Morning 456.. I see more then just the weather is picking up in the Caribbean.... did you read the news about Jamaica?
Jamaica is constantly "at war". The sad thing is that the politicians are hand in hand with the gang leaders and they are killing off their own people including women and children. If they have a beef with you they do not find anything wrong with killing your mother, wife child etc.
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Quoting wadedanielsmith:
On Sunday, oil reached an 1,150-acre oyster ground leased by Belle Chasse, La.,



Now see, reality check.

We can clearly see from videos repeatedly posted by Patrap that these slicks are anywhere from several millimeters to several inches thick in many locations. I mean, in some videos, they have that much oil already deposited up on the grasses and other plants just from wave actions or high tides...

So if we just look at this one 1150 acre ground (which is almost 2 square miles), and assume average thickness of just one millimeter, then that one blob of oil is 1,249,097 gallons. Which is the equivalent of about 1/5th of the entire volume of the oil spill as reported by BP and the government....




This is a nightmare, right?


This is not oil, it is an oil in water emulsion which (I guess) is about 70 % water.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


I know it is bad...keep in mind Oil is a Natural resource from Mother Earth and things will come back naturally in time....but the Toxic crap that BP was allowed to place upon this spill, we have no idea of the short and long term affects......THAT IS REALLY SAD!


I just hope they fix it before it reaches the point of FUBAR :(
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Morning 456.. I see more then just the weather is picking up in the Caribbean.... did you read the news about Jamaica?


Actually I was just discussing it. I know gangs and they will support their members at any cost and its no surprise it happened in Jamaica. It was avoidable though.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
Being a weather novice, but responsible for reaction to Florida weather events, if a storm were to roll through the GOM then over Florida, what effects would the oil disaster have on Florida, besides surge? I am interested on opinions if any portion of the surface oil be transported by wind/rain, if so, impact on property/plants...?
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Invest90
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)



Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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