90L heads for North Carolina, drenches Bermuda; oil spill changing little

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:54 PM GMT on May 24, 2010

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An extratropical low pressure system (90L) between the Bahamas and Bermuda is moving north-northwest towards North Carolina and is close to tropical storm strength. Last night's ASCAT pass saw a large area of 35 mph winds to the north and east of the center, and buoy 41048 to northeast of 90L's center was seeing sustained ENE winds of 36 mph, gusting to 43 mph this morning. Bermuda is seeing some heavy weather from this storm, with winds blowing at 35 mph on the west end of the island, and the Bermuda radar showing an area of moderate to heavy rain moving over the island. Seas are running 5 - 10 feet in the outer waters of Bermuda today, and are expected to increase to 10 - 14 feet tonight before diminishing on Tuesday.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 90L this morning.

Strong upper-levels winds out of the west are creating about 25 knots of wind shear over 90L, but the shear has been gradually decreasing over the past day. Visible satellite loops show that 90L does not have a well-defined surface circulation. The main thunderstorm activity is in a large curved band to the north and northeast of the center. This band is several hundred miles removed from the center, which is characteristic of subtropical storms. I expect that 90L will continue to grow more subtropical in nature today through Wednesday as the shear continues to fall. Sea surface temperatures are near 25°C today and will fall to 23 - 24°C on Tuesday. This is warm enough to support a subtropical storm, but probably not a tropical storm. On Wednesday, 90L will be nearing the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and SSTs will warm again, to the 24 - 25°C range. This is still pretty cool for a tropical storm, and I expect 90L will never become fully tropical. To understand the difference between a tropical and subtropical storm and why we care, see my subtropical storm tutorial.

The SHIPS model predicts that shear will fall to the medium 10 - 20 knot range by Tuesday. A large amount of dry air to 90L's southwest associated with the upper-level trough of low pressure on top of the storm, as seen on water vapor satellite loops , will hamper transition of 90L to a subtropical or tropical storm. The system will move slowly towards the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days, making its closest approach to the coast on Wednesday, when most of the models indicate the center will be 200 - 400 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. All of the major models currently predict that 90L will not make landfall, but will move slowly eastward out to sea on Thursday, when a trough of low pressure moving across the Eastern U.S. picks up the storm. There presently isn't much to be concerned with about this storm, as it appears that it will remain offshore and will become, at worst, a 40 - 50 mph subtropical storm. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 90L a medium (30% chance) of developing into a depression or tropical/subtropical storm. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on 90L.

Western Caribbean disturbance
A small region of disturbed weather has developed in the Western Caribbean, off the east coast of Nicaragua. Moisture is expected to increase across in this area in the coming days, and by Saturday, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that shear will drop low enough to permit the possible development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression. This storm would then move northeastward over eastern Cuba early next week. The other models keep the shear high in the Caribbean all week, and do not show anything developing. Thus, the Western Caribbean bears watching later this week, but the conditions appear marginal for development.

Moderate risk of severe weather today in northern Plains
The Storm Prediction Center has placed western Nebraska and portions of South and North Dakota under their "Moderate" risk for severe weather today. They warn that "a couple of strong and possibly long-track tornadoes appear possible given the forecast scenario." Keep an eye on the activity today with our Severe Weather Page.

Major oil threat continues for the coast of Louisiana
Light winds are expected to prevail across the northern Gulf of Mexico all week, resulting in continued oiling threats to the Louisiana shoreline from the mouth of the Mississippi River westward 150 miles, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. There is no longer a flow of oil moving southwards towards the Loop Current, and the oil that did move southwards last week was mostly entrained into a counter-clockwise rotating eddy attached to the northern boundary of the Loop Current. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery over the weekend showed that most of this oil has dispersed, and very little of this oil is now visible from space (Figure 2.) Imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument and from NOAA aircraft did not show any oil in the Loop Current headed towards the Florida Keys over the weekend, so that is good news. NOAA comments that there may be some "scattered tar balls" in the Loop Current headed towards the Florida Keys. I expect these scattered tar balls have completed the full loop of the Loop Current and are now headed east towards the Keys, and will pass the Dry Tortugas and Key West sometime Wednesday - Saturday. My guess is that the oil and its accompanying plume of toxic dispersants will be too thin and scattered to cause significant problems in the Keys.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 11:41am EDT Saturday May 22, 2010, by the European Envisat-1 satellite. Only scattered patches of oil are evident in the counter-clockwise rotating eddy on the northern boundary of the Loop Current. A small amount of oil appears to be in the Loop Current, and is moving southward. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Future threats to the Keys
Mostly offshore winds are expected this week over the northern Gulf of Mexico, thanks to the approach of the 90L storm along the Southeast U.S. coast. It is uncertain if these winds will be strong enough to push oil southward into the Loop Current, though at least one ocean trajectory model does show this occurring. As I discussed in my post Wednesday, the Loop Current is very unstable right now, and is ready to cut off into a giant clockwise-rotating eddy, an event that occurs every 6 - 11 months. At least one ocean model (the Global HYCOM model from the HYCOM consortium) is predicting that such an eddy will form this week. In the event a Loop Current Eddy does break off, it would create a rotating ring of water 250 miles in diameter to the south of the oil spill. Oil moving southwards would tend to enter the giant eddy and circulate around it, not threatening any land areas. Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecast Service has a nice discussion on the possibility of the Loop Current cutting off into a Loop Current Eddy. Keep in mind, though, that during the first month that a Loop Current Eddy forms, it exchanges a considerable amount of water with the Loop Current. Thus we can expect that a portion of any oil moving southwards into a Loop Current Eddy will find its way into the Loop Current and move past the Florida Keys.

Oil spill resources
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll be back with a new post Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Thanks everyone!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Your vastly underplaying a lot of things pottery,and vastly over the top on others.


I'd do a lil fact finding and search history before going down that road..

Its not like that at all.

Just research what the Oil Industry has done to the Wetlands here..

for a start.






Dont get me wrong. Not saying that they have not left a mess everywhere they went.
But on that point, so have miners, lumber companies, and Industries of all kinds all over the World too.
I was just questioning the notion that Big Business does not create employment and Spending Power in the states they opperate in.
The fact that BigBusiness ultimately leaves destruction behind, with vast sums of $$$ needed to rebuild ecologies and everything else, was not what was being talked about . At least I didnt think so.
Sorry if I was not clear...

Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24653
Quoting Drakoen:


Thank You and I will be majoring in Meteorology at Florida State University this fall.


Congrats on becoming a NOLE!!! The met professors are amazing here. Though I'm sure you know that.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Thank You and I will be majoring in Meteorology at Florida State University this fall.

Are you sure that you have chosen a compatable major for yourself?
(j/k...you'll do very well)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
One of the issues we're going to have when chasing in loud environments is the problem of clearly communicating our website URL if we're live on the air with network news.

To solve this issue, we've got a clear call-out URL that is easy to say, memorize, and hear. This call-out takes one directly to our severe weather webcam page.

The call-out is 7674u.com

767---(texting) = Help

Call-out URL translation: Help For You

Nice easy...and has meaning.

What do you think?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Your vastly underplaying a lot of things pottery,and vastly over the top on others.


I'd do a lil fact finding and search history before going down that road..

Its not like that at all.

Just research what the Oil Industry has done to the Wetlands here..

for a start.







It is similar to the everglades here with the construction industry and industry surrounding it. Only recently has it has turned around. My parents house has an "everglades drainage canal" that ends a house over. One of hundreds that used to drain of what used to be the everglades.

The industry here downplayed it all until the American Alligator was nearly gone and the panthers numbered less than 100. And the wetlands were dying. Luckily the everglades had a lovely old lady to save it. Lovely old ladies do a lot for legislation.
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Quoting StormW:


Hey Drak, good to see you! Wanted to compliment you again, on how your knowledge has increased since I've first met you on here. Are you in school for your Met. degree?


Thank You and I will be majoring in Meteorology at Florida State University this fall.
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Most folks don't know the scope of this oil disaster. Most of it remains below the surface and out of sight. That is what the dispersant does.

Additionally, this will ultimately make the US more dependent upon foreign oil sources. Many of which want to do bad things to us and do it with our own oil money. Demand is not going to go away.

Why the Feds have not been completely in charge of this since day one is beyond me. They now are talking of taking control, over a month later? :(

Feds step up role in oil spill cleanup

“If we find (BP is) not doing what they're supposed to be doing, we'll push them out of the way appropriately,” Salazar said.
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Well, as a dumb republican stuck in the 19th century, I will stick up for Tampaspin on this one. Contingiency plans were in place here along the gulf. However they took too long to start implementing them, and did not have the resources in place to implement them. We asked other countries for booms for christ's sake. Now I know the republicans are at fault as they have been in power for quite some time now, oh wait no. Dems have been in power in congress for 3 and a half years now and the presidency for 1 and a half. But I am sure that that was not enough time to stop all the evil that the Reps did while they were in power. Blame should be held for later, fixing this should be done now. And patrap, for every action there is an equal, and oppisite reaction. Even if you dont see a post on it. That first article was written by an obviosly biased person, an advisor from Hillary Clinton's old staff. And Rush is off today so there is only a guest host on the EIB.


Can we go back to weather now?
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
GFDL and HWRF are out on the FSU site. When viewing the GFDL also look towards the SW Carribean.


Forecasting for a storm in the Caribbean
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222. xcool
:0 i'm backk .take care of my son
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
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Quick! We need a named storm to talk about!
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GFDL and HWRF are out on the FSU site. When viewing the GFDL also look towards the SW Carribean.
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Quoting wadedanielsmith:
182:

Personally, I don't think L.A. gets anywhere near as much money out of the oil as we should.

The companies come over here and drill the oil, which is our resource, and yet they make a profit that is as big as a state budget, and CEOs that make more money than an entire town's income...That guy gets paid like ten times more money in one year than most people make in their entire life times, and he doesn't deserve it.


Why doesn't "he" deserve it?
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Quoting Patrap:


Your vastly underplaying a lot of things pottery.


Id do a lil fact finding nad search history before going down that road..
Its not that at all.




Really? OK. I will take your advice, and do that. Thanks.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24653
Quoting pottery:

I hear yopu.
But I suppose you have to take into account the income to the State from local wages, salaries, in-state taxes, improvement in retail figures as a result of high-paying jobs, etc etc etc. Marine facilities, Refineries, shipping...the list is long.
Non-oil States get none of that...


Your vastly underplaying a lot of things pottery,and vastly over the top on others.


I'd do a lil fact finding and search history before going down that road..

Its not like that at all.

Just research what the Oil Industry has done to the Wetlands here..

for a start.





Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This circulation will take over IMO. We will see, I'll be back later.
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1800
Quoting wadedanielsmith:
182:

Personally, I don't think L.A. gets anywhere near as much money out of the oil as we should.

The companies come over here and drill the oil, which is our resource, and yet they make a profit that is as big as a state budget, and CEOs that make more money than an entire town's income...That guy gets paid like ten times more money in one year than most people make in their entire life times, and he doesn't deserve it.

I hear yopu.
But I suppose you have to take into account the income to the State from local wages, salaries, in-state taxes, improvement in retail figures as a result of high-paying jobs, etc etc etc. Marine facilities, Refineries, shipping...the list is long.
Non-oil States get none of that...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24653
Quoting IKE:
*****Politics blog= Bad combination.

Conclusion: Stay out of it!*****


Eh some in the discussion prob dunno what the term "government" means. Though that does not mean they do not have good arguments.

Lucky corruption across the board is dramatically less than, lets say 100 years ago. Or there would be a disaster like bp's monthly. 17th amendment helped with that.
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GFS showing shear lowering in the Caribbean:


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Quoting xcool:
May 2010
24th-27th. Heavy rains. Possible tropical weather system.
28th-31st. Clearing for holiday weekend.


June 2010
1st-3rd. Some rain.
4th-7th. Pleasant weather.
8th-11th. Scattered thunderstorms.
12th-15th. Fair and hot.
16th-19th. Hurricane could bring wind, rain.
20th-23rd. Pleasant, tranquil most everywhere.
24th-27th. Thunderstorms Gulf Coast north & east, then fair.
28th-30th. Scattered showers.


July 2010
1st-3rd. Fair, hot.
4th-7th. Big thunderstorms Tennessee, the Carolinas, northern portions Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia could dampen holiday activities.
8th-11th. Mostly fair, hot.
12th-15th. Rainy, windy, then fair.
16th-19th. Hot sultry.

Farmers alnamac


Couple questions because I never understood the farmers almanac. When was that written? How does it always seem to be right? Where is it for? (Or is it just ambiguous so that weather will always be happening somewhere, so that it always seems right)
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1800
Quoting pottery:

Spin, Tampaspin, Spin. GO for it, Man.


Not spinning anything......PatRAp started the posting so i just followed with fact finding for his reference. Sorry to offend anyone. If he would keep Politics out of it then i would not need to post something that was of Fact Finding. Sorry.
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Three is better than one. =)

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Just such a massive circulation. From Jamaica up to North Carolina.
Member Since: July 29, 2006 Posts: 28 Comments: 1800
Quoting TampaSpin:


OH NO IT WAS NOT! Permitts was granted without getting them properly done. OBAMA could have stopped it. It was within his power to do so.....So for those of you that want to continue the Bush Bashing and can't except the Blame for this President......It's his fault and his disaster that he is ignoring! So keep the Bush Bashing and i will continue with fact posting!



MMS has allowed the environmental reviews that were done as part of the leasing process to be used for the drilling process for years. They have also allowed the area wide response plans for each company to be used for well specific plans for years. It happened under this adminstrations watch, so it is there problem. However this adminstration did not change anything that was not already being done.
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Quoting Patrap:
sand-duck-head-bury


You gonna get a oily head.
and it aint Brylcreme!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24653
sand-duck-head-bury

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Quoting IKE:
*****Politics + blog= Bad combination.

Conclusion: Stay out of it!*****


yea me too now lol

but you knew with all of the posting about the oil leak that it would eventually lead to that
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Fed officials pick up pressure on BP over spill

Credit: The Associated Press

Oil washes ashore against a land bridge built by the Louisiana National Guard to hold back oil from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in Grand Isle, La.,

by The Associated Press

wwltv.com

Posted on May 24, 2010 at 12:20 PM

GALLIANO, La. -- U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano says federal officials are working to hold BP PLC responsible for cleaning up the growing Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

Napolitano said Monday that she's heartsick about damage to Grand Isle, south of New Orleans, where thick oil has been washing up. She says the government will stay on BP until the cleanup gets done the right way.

Interior Secretary Ken Salazar says federal officials are not standing on the sidelines. He said thousands of people are working to stop the gushing oil and protect the coast line.

BP leased the rig and is responsible for the cleanup. Anger with the company and the government has grown as the monthlong oil spill creeps deeper into the Gulf Coast's wetlands.

Napolitano, Salazar, and other state and federal officials were viewing the damage from the air Monday.

(Copyright 2010 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)
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193. IKE
*****Politics + blog= Bad combination.

Conclusion: Stay out of it!*****
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:


OH NO IT WAS NOT! Permitts was granted without getting them properly done. OBAMA could have stopped it. It was within his power to do so.....So for those of you that want to continue the Bush Bashing and can't except the Blame for this President......It's his fault and his disaster that he is ignoring! So keep the Bush Bashing and i will continue with fact posting!

Spin, Tampaspin, Spin. GO for it, Man.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24653
Quoting Patrap:
I hear TAMPA is Hosting the RNC in 2012..

Congratulations..


Seems to me it is convenient to blame the man in charge now for something that has been years in the making

Id say that is the easy way out, wouldn't you?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Continuation of previous adminstrations policies.


OH NO IT WAS NOT! Permitts was granted without getting them properly done. OBAMA could have stopped it. It was within his power to do so.....So for those of you that want to continue the Bush Bashing and can't except the Blame for this President......It's his fault and his disaster that he is ignoring! So keep the Bush Bashing and i will continue with fact posting!
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Hi Guys, Expect strong to severe thunderstorms across C and N Fl today as there is very cold air aloft. Also, 90L looks like it will relocate itself along or just off the FL east coast as a disturbance that is over N and S Carolina drops down to just off the Florida coast an spawns a more potent low very near ST. Augustine it is this new low that will be much more impressive and this UL spin over S Carolina is impressive.


You are obsessed with bringing 90L so close to Florida despite all evidence which says otherwise
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
186. xcool
LARGE OCEAN STORM OFF SOUTHEAST COAST NOT LIKELY TO POSE TOO MUCH OF A THREAT TO LAND

by Mark Sudduth



The storm system that most computer models predicted would form has indeed done so and is still sitting well off the coast of the Southeast United States. Latest satellite images show that it has become better organized overall but still lacks a core of deep thunderstorms. In other words, the storm is quite spread out and does not appear to be getting too strong too quick. While it is an interesting feature to watch on satellite, it should pose little problems for the coast as it remains offshore just kind of looping around. I do not see anything in the major computer models that leads me to believe this will ever affect land directly.

So does its existence at all mean we are definitely in for a rough hurricane season? It is my opinion that it does not. Why? First of all, this storm system formed because of larger scale weather originating off the North American continent. It was a product of the upper level environment more than anything and not due to a tropical wave. This is important because tropical waves, which are born over Africa in most cases, have a lot of heat energy associated with them. This results in the subequent tropical storm/hurricane being warm core with the strongest winds closest to the center. In the case of the system over the Atlantic today, its winds are far more spread out and not concentrated near the center. Second, it is not uncommon to see this kind of development when powerful upper level features work out over the Atlantic- whether it be May or September. However, it were later in the hurricane season, there would be more of a chance for this system to transition to warm core by taking advantage of much warmer water temps. Bottom line: while it is likely to be an active hurricane season, I do not see this system as being a symptom of such. When we get true tropical development, that will be the sign that the horse has left the barn.

Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Continuation of previous adminstrations policies.


U betcha..
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Quoting RobertM320:


Maybe we do, but its time Louisiana starts adding 10 cents per gallon to every drop of crude thats produced. $4.20 per barrel. Then we will have the money to repair our own wetlands and coastline that the oil companies have destroyed the last 80 years.

An oil tax, for environmental clean-up is a good idea....
For every State in the Union that is NOT affected by the spill.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24653

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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