90L heads for North Carolina, drenches Bermuda; oil spill changing little

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:54 PM GMT on May 24, 2010

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An extratropical low pressure system (90L) between the Bahamas and Bermuda is moving north-northwest towards North Carolina and is close to tropical storm strength. Last night's ASCAT pass saw a large area of 35 mph winds to the north and east of the center, and buoy 41048 to northeast of 90L's center was seeing sustained ENE winds of 36 mph, gusting to 43 mph this morning. Bermuda is seeing some heavy weather from this storm, with winds blowing at 35 mph on the west end of the island, and the Bermuda radar showing an area of moderate to heavy rain moving over the island. Seas are running 5 - 10 feet in the outer waters of Bermuda today, and are expected to increase to 10 - 14 feet tonight before diminishing on Tuesday.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 90L this morning.

Strong upper-levels winds out of the west are creating about 25 knots of wind shear over 90L, but the shear has been gradually decreasing over the past day. Visible satellite loops show that 90L does not have a well-defined surface circulation. The main thunderstorm activity is in a large curved band to the north and northeast of the center. This band is several hundred miles removed from the center, which is characteristic of subtropical storms. I expect that 90L will continue to grow more subtropical in nature today through Wednesday as the shear continues to fall. Sea surface temperatures are near 25°C today and will fall to 23 - 24°C on Tuesday. This is warm enough to support a subtropical storm, but probably not a tropical storm. On Wednesday, 90L will be nearing the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and SSTs will warm again, to the 24 - 25°C range. This is still pretty cool for a tropical storm, and I expect 90L will never become fully tropical. To understand the difference between a tropical and subtropical storm and why we care, see my subtropical storm tutorial.

The SHIPS model predicts that shear will fall to the medium 10 - 20 knot range by Tuesday. A large amount of dry air to 90L's southwest associated with the upper-level trough of low pressure on top of the storm, as seen on water vapor satellite loops , will hamper transition of 90L to a subtropical or tropical storm. The system will move slowly towards the Southeast U.S. coast over the next two days, making its closest approach to the coast on Wednesday, when most of the models indicate the center will be 200 - 400 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. All of the major models currently predict that 90L will not make landfall, but will move slowly eastward out to sea on Thursday, when a trough of low pressure moving across the Eastern U.S. picks up the storm. There presently isn't much to be concerned with about this storm, as it appears that it will remain offshore and will become, at worst, a 40 - 50 mph subtropical storm. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 90L a medium (30% chance) of developing into a depression or tropical/subtropical storm. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on 90L.

Western Caribbean disturbance
A small region of disturbed weather has developed in the Western Caribbean, off the east coast of Nicaragua. Moisture is expected to increase across in this area in the coming days, and by Saturday, the GFS and NOGAPS models predict that shear will drop low enough to permit the possible development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression. This storm would then move northeastward over eastern Cuba early next week. The other models keep the shear high in the Caribbean all week, and do not show anything developing. Thus, the Western Caribbean bears watching later this week, but the conditions appear marginal for development.

Moderate risk of severe weather today in northern Plains
The Storm Prediction Center has placed western Nebraska and portions of South and North Dakota under their "Moderate" risk for severe weather today. They warn that "a couple of strong and possibly long-track tornadoes appear possible given the forecast scenario." Keep an eye on the activity today with our Severe Weather Page.

Major oil threat continues for the coast of Louisiana
Light winds are expected to prevail across the northern Gulf of Mexico all week, resulting in continued oiling threats to the Louisiana shoreline from the mouth of the Mississippi River westward 150 miles, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. There is no longer a flow of oil moving southwards towards the Loop Current, and the oil that did move southwards last week was mostly entrained into a counter-clockwise rotating eddy attached to the northern boundary of the Loop Current. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery over the weekend showed that most of this oil has dispersed, and very little of this oil is now visible from space (Figure 2.) Imagery from NASA's MODIS instrument and from NOAA aircraft did not show any oil in the Loop Current headed towards the Florida Keys over the weekend, so that is good news. NOAA comments that there may be some "scattered tar balls" in the Loop Current headed towards the Florida Keys. I expect these scattered tar balls have completed the full loop of the Loop Current and are now headed east towards the Keys, and will pass the Dry Tortugas and Key West sometime Wednesday - Saturday. My guess is that the oil and its accompanying plume of toxic dispersants will be too thin and scattered to cause significant problems in the Keys.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 11:41am EDT Saturday May 22, 2010, by the European Envisat-1 satellite. Only scattered patches of oil are evident in the counter-clockwise rotating eddy on the northern boundary of the Loop Current. A small amount of oil appears to be in the Loop Current, and is moving southward. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Future threats to the Keys
Mostly offshore winds are expected this week over the northern Gulf of Mexico, thanks to the approach of the 90L storm along the Southeast U.S. coast. It is uncertain if these winds will be strong enough to push oil southward into the Loop Current, though at least one ocean trajectory model does show this occurring. As I discussed in my post Wednesday, the Loop Current is very unstable right now, and is ready to cut off into a giant clockwise-rotating eddy, an event that occurs every 6 - 11 months. At least one ocean model (the Global HYCOM model from the HYCOM consortium) is predicting that such an eddy will form this week. In the event a Loop Current Eddy does break off, it would create a rotating ring of water 250 miles in diameter to the south of the oil spill. Oil moving southwards would tend to enter the giant eddy and circulate around it, not threatening any land areas. Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecast Service has a nice discussion on the possibility of the Loop Current cutting off into a Loop Current Eddy. Keep in mind, though, that during the first month that a Loop Current Eddy forms, it exchanges a considerable amount of water with the Loop Current. Thus we can expect that a portion of any oil moving southwards into a Loop Current Eddy will find its way into the Loop Current and move past the Florida Keys.

Oil spill resources
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll be back with a new post Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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I'm still giving 90L a medium chance for transition to Subtropical status, just because the system looks rough on satellite doesn't mean it has a lower chance, but I respect the NHC decision. 90L appears to be getting more defined on the IR, so I guess the truth will be told by tomorrow. Dissipates or becomes Alex? we'll see.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
90L 18Z GFDL also notice the Carribean.


The Hurricane models (GFDL HWRF) are NOT to be used outside of the area in which the the storm they initalised for. Thats not what they were designed for, use global models instead.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
guys I am expecting a yellow in the far SW Carribean sometime between tomrrow morning and Wednesday morning
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11106
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
90L 18Z GFDL also notice the Carribean.
It forecasts two small systems to form... on that starts near nicaragua and moves ne into the carib, and one that starts over honduras and moves north into the caribbean. Looks like we may have something more to watch after 90l after all.
Member Since: December 1, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 3619
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
90L 18Z GFDL also notice the Carribean.
90 Hours. Notice SW Caribbean:

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
90L NOW YELLOW

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 242341
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
745 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND
THE BAHAMAS REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND THE POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IS
DIMINISHING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS LOW
IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND IS STILL PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. NO FURTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOKS ON THIS SYSTEM ARE ANTICIPATED.
$$

FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE



EPAC AOI

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242339
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON MAY 24 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED NEAR CENTRAL AMERICA...A FEW
HUNDRED MILES WEST OF COSTA RICA. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS OVER COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
728. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
90L 18Z GFDL also notice the Carribean.


Also that map you just recently posted that showed a dissipating low in 72 hours in the Caribbean....it shows up on the 18Z GFDL run with a more potent low further SW...probably 91L.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Code yella it is
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726. IKE
Looks like it may be over for 90L as Alex.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
90L 18Z GFDL also notice the Carribean.
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Down to code yellow:

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
745 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND
THE BAHAMAS REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND THE POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IS
DIMINISHING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS LOW
IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND IS STILL PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. NO FURTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOKS ON THIS SYSTEM ARE ANTICIPATED.
$$

FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
NNNN

Hmm... Apparently they are not seeing the big picture with the merging of the 2 systems. Maybe they will wake up to a surprise in the morning, or maybe I'm just an idiot, seeing things.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON MAY 24 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED NEAR CENTRAL AMERICA...A FEW
HUNDRED MILES WEST OF COSTA RICA. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS OVER COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE


Awesome, code yellow in the EPAC. But 10%? Looks like they're just taking the lowest end of the range.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
721. IKE
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
745 PM EDT MON MAY 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND
THE BAHAMAS REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND THE POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IS
DIMINISHING.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS LOW
IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND IS STILL PRODUCING
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. NO FURTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOKS ON THIS SYSTEM ARE ANTICIPATED.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
African coast:



The EPAC is just a long line of convection:

AOI


Rest of the EPAC


90L:



I'm out for 20 minutes, I'll be returning soon.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
719. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON MAY 24 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED NEAR CENTRAL AMERICA...A FEW
HUNDRED MILES WEST OF COSTA RICA. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS OVER COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE



Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
So two 1007MB lows are merging into 90L. Does that mean we are going to have a pressure of 2014? J/k. lol.


You know what I used to tell my brother, "If we combine our body heat, 98 98=196. Let's make a fire!"

That would be too high for something to form, BTW. I wonder if it was so strong, it could recurve the highs?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:


I imagine that is a different area of low pressure unrelated to the possible future disturbance.
Yeah I would have to say so, It looks to far from the actual low pressure area to be related.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting extreme236:


I imagine that is a different area of low pressure unrelated to the possible future disturbance.


That's probably it.
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Quoting cg2916:
Yup, we got a merger going on with 90L

So two 1007MB lows are merging into 90L. Does that mean we are going to have a pressure of 2014? J/k. lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
below the low it says "1009 - Dissipated". Are they killing it so early?


I imagine that is a different area of low pressure unrelated to the possible future disturbance.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
below the low it says "1009 - Dissipated". Are they killing it so early?


It's not even on the 18Z surface analysis.
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Yup, we got a merger going on with 90L

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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
This low in the Carribean can't be the one talked about as a potential storm. Also looks like TAFB is leaning toward frontal for 90L


below the low it says "1009 - Dissipated". Are they killing it so early?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting BDAwx:


not too bad... had much worse storms. :)
in fact the rain has been beneficial - its been kinda dry here as of late.

Thats, good. Thanks.
Keep well...
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Broad area of low pressure enhanced by the monsoon trough (green).

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Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.



THREE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N85W THROUGH COSTA RICA INTO THE EXTREME
SW CARIBBEAN AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF INCREASINGLY
DISTURBED WEATHER.
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED WELL
DEFINED LOW AND MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LOW CLOUD
MOTIONS SUGGEST A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY BE DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHERN COSTA RICA OR SOUTHERN NICARAGUA.
THE AREA OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE TROUGH IS LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING S TO SW
WINDS S OF THE ITCZ AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE SE OF
AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N102W.


That's "future 91L" for ya.
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This low in the Carribean can't be the one talked about as a potential storm. Also looks like TAFB is leaning toward frontal for 90L


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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Welcome back extreme! Glad to read your observations again!


Thanks! Glad to be back.
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705. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON MAY 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2145 UTC.


THREE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 06N85W THROUGH COSTA RICA INTO THE EXTREME
SW CARIBBEAN AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF INCREASINGLY
DISTURBED WEATHER.
LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED WELL
DEFINED LOW AND MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LOW CLOUD
MOTIONS SUGGEST A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY BE DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHERN COSTA RICA OR SOUTHERN NICARAGUA.
THE AREA OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE TROUGH IS LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING S TO SW
WINDS S OF THE ITCZ AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE SE OF
AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N102W.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
704. BDAwx
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Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting pottery:
Any word about the sea conditions in Bermuda tonight?
I don't know but SHIP3981 which is in the vicinity of Bermuda is reporting 55 MPH winds.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
701. BDAwx
Quoting pottery:
Any word about the sea conditions in Bermuda tonight?


not too bad... had much worse storms. :)
in fact the rain has been beneficial - its been kinda dry here as of late.
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Any word about the sea conditions in Bermuda tonight?
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Quoting Weather456:
Merger of 90L and another shortwave due to a blocking high. This is expected of 90L so in terms of set-up, 90L is doing what it should.



It is widely believed that when 90L merges with that area over the East coast, THAT is when it will become subtropical
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7376
I dont know...one or two cells firing up and not being constant is not going to magically turn it warm core. It takes time and needs more heat. I just think it will run out of time and NHC will be conservative with this one esspecailly since it will go out to sea.
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Merger of 90L and another shortwave due to a blocking high. This is expected of 90L so in terms of set-up, 90L is doing what it should.

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Quoting extreme236:
I'm not sure what to think about 90L. So many things against it, but it has some potential. Medium potential for development seems fair at this point.


Pretty soon, it'll have everything for it.
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Quoting reedzone:
Looks like 90L may get it's act together tonight, notice some banding of convection to the northeast side, also notice new pop up storms kind of moving along with the bands of convection to the north. Definitely some warm core coming in.

I think it's improving, let's see what the NHC says in the next special advisory.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
I have an opinion on 90L.
But yesterday I swore I would refrain from saying anything derogatory about it.
This is proving very difficult.
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See you Folks tomorrow.....Happy Hunting.... :)
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Quoting reedzone:
Looks like 90L may get it's act together tonight, notice some banding of convection to the northeast side, also notice new pop up storms kind of moving along with the bands of convection to the north. Definitely some warm core coming in.



Yup.
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Welcome back extreme! Glad to read your observations again!
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I'm not sure what to think about 90L. So many things against it, but it has some potential. Medium potential for development seems fair at this point.
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Yea I agree, one or the other. I am leaning EPAC for now but part of me wants to see something interesting and watch it come across to the other side.


I'm leaning more Atlantic right now.
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Looks like 90L may get it's act together tonight, notice some banding of convection to the northeast side, also notice new pop up storms kind of moving along with the bands of convection to the north. Definitely some warm core coming in.



Dunno why the floater is earlier on here, but go to the NHC site here and you'll see new popcorn storms forming around a possible new low near 70W 31N .. Can anybody see what I am seeing here?
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting extreme236:


Its possible, but I'd say its gonna be one or the other...either the EPAC or Caribbean.


Yeah, I was tryinrg to be funny.
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685. BDAwx
could a circulation break off around 60W 25N and form its own system? Is that even possible?
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Quoting cg2916:


The thing is too broad, it might not be able to re-gain the convection it lost. Of course, unless ANOTHER low forms under the convection. What low are we on, now, 4?

I lost count at 10.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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