Warmest April on record for the globe
The globe recorded its warmest April since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center. The April temperature anomaly of 0.76°C (1.37°F) beat the previous record set in 1998 by 0.05°C. The is the second consecutive warmest month on record. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated April 2010 as the warmest April on record. The year-to-date period, January - April, is the warmest such period on record, according to both NOAA and NASA. NASA also rated the last 12-month period (May 2009 - April 2010) as the warmest 12-month period on record. April 2010 global ocean temperatures were the warmest on record for the 2nd month in a row, while land temperatures were the 3rd warmest. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in April, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups.
For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from April 2010.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for April 2010. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.
A very warm April for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 14th warmest April in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. California was the coldest state, relative to average, with its 12th coldest April. No state had a top-ten coldest April. Five states had their warmest April on record--Illinois, Maine, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and New Jersey. Sixteen other states had top-ten warmest Aprils.
U.S. precipitation and drought
For the contiguous U.S., April 2010 ranked as the 36th driest in the 116-year record. Louisiana, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Connecticut, and Massachusetts all had top-ten driest Aprils. Only Oregon had a top-ten wet April. At the end of April, 2% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought. This is the lowest April drought footprint in the U.S. in the past ten years.
El Niño is over
El Niño rapidly weakened during late April and early May, with sea surface temperatures over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", falling 0.65°C in just one month. This brought SSTs into "neutral" conditions, at 0.18°C above average, which is well below the 0.5°C above average threshold to be considered an El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The speed of the collapse of El Niño makes it likely that a La Niña event is on its way this summer. This is what happened during the last strong El Niño event in 1998--El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. The demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, have prompted two major hurricane forecasting groups (tropicalstormrisk.com and Colorado State University) to predict a significantly above average 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Over the full 160-year period we have records of Atlantic hurricanes, La Niña years have typically had more hurricanes, and more strong hurricanes, compared to neutral years. However, since 1995, there hasn't been any difference between neutral and La Niña years in terms of hurricane activity.
April sea ice extent in the Arctic near average in April
April 2010 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 15th lowest (or 18th greatest) since satellite measurements began in 1979, so was near average. However, the ice volume anomaly was at a record low at the end of April, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. Wind patterns this spring have pushed a great deal of the oldest ice out of the Arctic, leaving mostly thin ice that is vulnerable to rapid melting. The first two weeks of May have seen unusual warmth in the Arctic, leading to rapid melting, and ice extent as of May 20 was the 2nd lowest on record, behind 2006, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).
I'll be back this afternoon to talk about the oil spill and the tropics. I'm working on a post about how a hurricane passing over the spill might affect the oil. I'll post it if I have time to finish it.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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250
WHXX01 KWBC 211813
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1813 UTC FRI MAY 21 2010
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902010) 20100521 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100521 1800 100522 0600 100522 1800 100523 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.1N 72.9W 24.3N 73.4W 23.8N 74.1W 22.9N 74.8W
BAMD 25.1N 72.9W 24.7N 70.0W 25.1N 68.1W 26.6N 67.4W
BAMM 25.1N 72.9W 24.6N 72.9W 24.4N 73.2W 24.1N 73.3W
LBAR 25.1N 72.9W 25.1N 72.0W 25.2N 71.6W 25.3N 71.4W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 26KTS 20KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 26KTS 20KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100523 1800 100524 1800 100525 1800 100526 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.1N 75.2W 21.5N 75.7W 22.4N 74.8W 24.4N 71.2W
BAMD 28.7N 67.6W 33.2N 69.0W 35.8N 72.5W 35.0N 76.5W
BAMM 23.7N 73.2W 24.5N 70.4W 29.9N 66.9W 34.6N 65.4W
LBAR 25.8N 71.2W 27.6N 71.2W 31.2N 70.1W 35.8N 68.6W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.1N LONCUR = 72.9W DIRCUR = 165DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 25.6N LONM12 = 72.9W DIRM12 = 222DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 25.6N LONM24 = 72.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 150NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 155NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
$$
NNNN
823
WHXX04 KWBC 211714
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L
INITIAL TIME 12Z MAY 21
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 27.1 72.2 300./ 1.9
6 26.9 72.9 254./ 6.4
STORM DISSIPATED AT 6 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
LOL.
Can you show on a map? There's like 2-4 centers right now along with a broad low pressure, so I am curious where you mean.
Settle down there terminator...
Just will have to wait and see. I'm just glad we're able to refresh our skills and dust off our links with a weak system like this before the official start to hurricane season. Seems like I've still got some polishing needed. lol
LOL
Gonna forget about the weather and oil for a few hours with the kids.......... :)
I see the coc at 25.1N and 72.9W...appears to be moving west.
Go out there with an oil can Oz....I bet you could do a lot of damage to it :)
Was about to say something similar. lol
TGIF all, out>
AF306 chucked a sonde about where the slick touches the north side of the forming eddy.
Date: Near the closest hour of 17Z on the 21st day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 400mb
Coordinates: 27.6N 86.3W (View map)
Location: 182 miles (293 km) to the SSW (192°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 (About)
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1015mb (29.97 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 26.6°C (79.9°F) 23.3°C (73.9°F) 125° (from the SE) 10 knots (12 mph)
1000mb 136m (446 ft) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 22.7°C (72.9°F) 120° (from the ESE) 11 knots (13 mph)
925mb 818m (2,684 ft) 21.2°C (70.2°F) 16.8°C (62.2°F) 150° (from the SSE) 13 knots (15 mph)
850mb 1,549m (5,082 ft) 18.6°C (65.5°F) Approximately 9°C (48°F) 145° (from the SE) 17 knots (20 mph)
700mb 3,190m (10,466 ft) 9.8°C (49.6°F) Approximately -6°C (21°F) 15° (from the NNE) 8 knots (9 mph)
500mb 5,890m (19,324 ft) -7.3°C (18.9°F) Approximately -45°C (-49°F) 290° (from the WNW) 9 knots (10 mph)
400mb 7,590m (24,902 ft) -20.5°C (-4.9°F) -24.9°C (-12.8°F) 270° (from the W) 14 knots (16 mph)
Link
ILC023-211845-
/O.NEW.KILX.TO.W.0007.100521T1814Z-100521T1845Z/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
114 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
* UNTIL 145 PM CDT.
* AT 110 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARSHALL...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARSHALL...DENNISON AND LINCOLN TRAIL STATE PARK.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
&&
LAT...LON 3934 8759 3932 8760 3932 8761 3930 8777
3937 8781 3948 8764 3947 8756
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 234DEG 21KT 3934 8773
$$
MILLER
or maybe a bit north of that circle now that I take a second look
First the center is dry due to mid-level dry air intrusion and you can look at the winds near the mid-level and the RH. and 25-45 knots of winds are blowing over it.
Second, an area of thunderstorm to the southeast of the center and the vertical profile is typical of a thunderstorm cluster.
Now look at the differences in low level winds. light winds near the center and strong winds further east near the thunderstorms. It could be that dry air subsidence in the center eventually surges east at low levels and becomes inflow for thunderstorms on the eastern side.
Out of the top 101 Android Apps of all time, coming in at #11 is....
Weatherbug?
Come on WU! iPhones blow, they want money for everthing, and if you pick the wrong one up, Apple will kick your door in! We need a WU android app to show 'em how it's done.
Besides, weatherbug keeps listing me in Boca, 20 miles and 3 cities away. Stupid bug.
Now having said all this, I wonder if Admin is just waiting for the new (mobile) version of Adobe Flash to come out (sch for 1st half of this year) so's we can all see animated radar and satellite loops on our mobile phones?
While I'm rambling...how about someone creating a hurricane app? 'Tis the season!
Thanks for your cooperation, you folks have been great.
Feel free to talk amongst yerselves...
Following the TCVN and BAMMS 18Z tracks.
But notice how short the track is, that won't be the center for long.
Yay they named it I hope Somalia is prepared Do they get cyclones often?
The air would not have risen if it wasnt for the upper winds hence why we call it elevated convection. The opposite is surface based convection. Not all the convection is created by the system, some is created by divergence aloft.
Real-Time U.S. Composite Satellite Animation
Oil RECON and a Invest...
Summer is a coming soon.
Merriam-Webster:
to analyze and interpret minutely
lol
*MEDIA ADVISORY* Unified Area Command to hold press briefing in Robert, La.
Key contact numbers
* Report oiled shoreline or request volunteer information: (866) 448-5816
* Submit alternative response technology, services or products: (281) 366-5511
* Submit your vessel for the Vessel of Opportunity Program: (281) 366-5511
* Submit a claim for damages: (800) 440-0858
* Report oiled wildlife: (866) 557-1401
Deepwater Horizon Incident
Joint Information Center
Phone: (985) 902-5231
(985) 902-5240
Who: U.S. Coast Guard Rear Adm. Mary Landry, BP Chief Operating Officer Doug Suttles, MMS Regional Director of the Gulf of Mexico Region Lars Herbst and NOAA Scientific Support Coordinator Charlie Henry.
What: Unified Command to update media on ongoing operations regarding Deepwater Horizon oil spill response efforts and progress.
Where: The entrance location for press conferences at the Shell Robert Training and Conference Center has changed. Members of the media will enter the facility from the back gate. For a map to the back gate, click here. The address is 23260 Shell Lane in Robert, La., 70455-1928. A Unified Area Command joint information center representative will be at the gate at 1:00 p.m., to escort media.
When: 2 p.m. CDT. Friday, May 21, 2010. Live broadcast may be available on the Digital Video Information Distribution System (DVIDS) hub, which can be accessed at www.dvidshub.net. To see the live broadcast or download video of the conference, media must register with DVIDS no later than 1:45 p.m. This can be done on the DVIDS Web site or by calling (678) 421-6612.
RSVP: Media interested in attending should arrive no earlier than 12:30 p.m.
Interested parties can follow the conference call on Coveritlive. The audio file will be published here as soon as possible following the teleconference.
For information about the response effort, visit www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com.
Dissect is a general term, it is just most often used as in dissecting a human body.
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