Oil continues impacting Louisiana coast; storms for Caribbean and SE U.S. waters?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:01 PM GMT on May 20, 2010

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Light southeast to east winds are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Sunday, resulting in potential oiling of Louisiana shorelines from the mouth of the Mississippi River westward 150 miles, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. Clouds over the Gulf of Mexico have cleared, and we should get a good view late this afternoon on how far south the oil spill has penetrated into the Loop Current. Statements from NOAA and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite data imply that most of the oil that was pulled southwards to the northern boundary of the Loop Current is now caught in a counter-clockwise rotating eddy just to the north of the Loop Current. Some oil has escaped this eddy and is on its way south towards the Florida Keys. This tongue of oil consists of "numerous light sheens with some emulsified patties and streams," according to NOAA. I wish they'd provide more information about what the sensitivity of various ecosystems may be to oil at these concentrations. It would also be good to have more information about what the concentration of the toxic dispersants are in the surface waters of the spill, but I expect no one knows. The oil will grow more dilute as it travels the 500 miles to the Florida Keys. My present expectation is that the oil entering the Loop Current this week will cause only minor problems in the Keys next week. However, there is a lot of uncertainty about what the oil may do to the fragile Keys ecosystem. SAR imagery from last night and this morning continue to show a large plume of oil being drawn southeastward from the oil spill location into the northern boundary of the Loop Current. With winds expected to remain light over the coming week, I expect oil will continue to be drawn southwards into the Loop Current and the counter-clockwise rotating eddy just to its north. Much of the oil caught in this eddy may circulate around the eddy in 3 or so days, and potentially enter the Loop Current early next week. As I discussed in my post Wednesday, the Loop Current is very unstable right now, and is moving chaotically 10+ miles in a single day, making prediction difficult.


Figure 1. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 7:56am EDT May 20, 2010, by the Canadian Space Agency’s (CSA) RadarSat-1 satellite. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.


Figure 2. Latest oil trajectory forecast from NOAA for this Saturday.

Oil spill resources
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
HYCOM ocean current forecasts from LSU

Potential serious rainfall threat to Haiti next week
Long-range forecasts from the NOGAPS model, and to a lesser extent, the ECMWF and GFS models, continue to predict an increase in moisture and decrease in wind shear over the Western Caribbean 4 - 6 days from now, leading to development of a tropical disturbance with heavy rains in the Western Caribbean early next week. A strong subtropical jet stream over the southern Gulf of Mexico will steer the disturbance to the north and east, and the potential exists for heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches to affect eastern Cuba, Jamaica, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic in the Tuesday - Thursday time frame next week. It is possible that a tropical depression could form from this tropical disturbance, though most of the models indicate that high levels of wind shear will make this improbable.

Southeast U.S. coastal storm next week could become subtropical
A region of cloudiness and showers just east of the Bahama Islands will develop into a strong extratropical storm over the weekend. This storm is expected to move slowly northwestward towards the Southeast U.S. coast Sunday and Monday, and could bring 20 - 30 mph winds and heavy rain to the coast of North Carolina by Tuesday. While the storm will initially form in a region of high wind shear and be entirely extratropical, it will move into a region of lower wind shear in a gap between the polar jet stream to the north and the subtropical jet stream to its south early next week. At that time, the low will be positioned near the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and will have the opportunity to develop a shallow warm core and transition to a subtropical storm. The models are divided on whether the storm will eventually make landfall on the Southeast U.S. coast 6 - 7 days from now, and it is too early to offer odds on this occurring. The counter-clockwise flow of air around this low will probably lead to northeasterly winds over the oil spill region Monday through Wednesday, keeping oil away from the coasts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but pushing oil westwards towards Texas. Wunderblogger Weather456 has a more detailed discussion of the potential development of this system in his blog this morning.

Tornadoes and large hail pound Oklahoma
A significant severe weather outbreak occurred last night over Oklahoma and surrounding states, with 25 tornado reports, 8 reports of damaging winds, and 23 hail reports. Severe weather wunderblogger Dr. Rob Carver has the details in his wunderblog this morning. The Vortex2 field project had a perfect opportunity to intercept these tornadoes, since they were slow moving and occurred over relatively unpopulated regions. The University of Michigan students writing our Vortex2 featured blog will have an update when their schedule allows.


Figure 3. Baseball-sized hail pounds a suburban Oklahoma City swimming pool, making huge splashes, in this remarkable video. The action gets really intense about 90 seconds into the video.

I'll be back with a new post Friday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CycloneOz:
Taco and his wife will be our featured tornado chasers next week on XtremeHurricanes.com

He does have a web-cam and a wireless card, and will pop into WU to alert everyone when he plans on "going live" with the web-cam.

Needless to say, Taco is pretty excited, and I really don't blame him. He is being given an opportunity to broadcast his chase live...and I'm telling you, it can really pump you up!

The XtremeTeam will be providing ground support for Taco, and we all wish him and his wife well on their adventure next week.

Safe Journeys and Best Wishes my friends! :)


Thank You OZ,

We look forward to the "Chase" and being able to go "Live" at the sametime...

Taco :o)
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Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
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Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
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Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
The feature over the NW Carib looks more organized
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Good points Atmo.

Feel the buoy, be the buoy.
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And a ship "recorded" a 97 knot sustained wind in TS Arthur (2008) near the Yucatan.



Sure.
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The cluster of T-storms off Cozumel is reading -74° off of Infrared, based on the Sounding out of Belize that puts it at around 145-135 mb level. Which is ~48,000 ft.
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Quoting Levi32:
Very nice, brisk southwest wind being reported near 18N, 87W south of the Cozumel low center.


Ship obs scare the heck out of me when it comes to actual conclusions based off of them.

Almost none have an anemometer, just giving Beaufort scale by eyeball wave height estimates, regardless of whether it is swell or wind wave and regardless of bathymetry depth (big effect on waves in shallow areas!)

We have some historical ship obs that claim to be from the middle of the Sahara...not sure how a mariner does that...

And the quality control is performed at the assimilation phase of whatever model is using the data, GFS, for example. No quality control is conducted before the data is distributed.

AND, among the sites we can get ship obs, I happen to know that sailwx sometimes delays the ship reports for 6 or 12 hours so that they can legally distribute the ships' call signs with the obs (As per WMO, they are not supposed to distribute ship obs with the call sign for some number of hours). Other times, current obs, but no call sign. Must be careful that the obs aren't old...latest ship ob near the Yucatan, that I saw a few minutes ago, was from 15 Z (10 am CDT).

NDBC always gives current obs, no quality control and no call sign (using the anemometer database listing those that actually have one and it's height is useless when looking for the call sign SHIP).
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Levi, will that play any into the weather expected around Grand Bahama at all this weekend? Can I expect a washout or a scorcher?
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Any reason that they would have moved the floater off the east coast? Models suggesting something might form off the front?


Likely in preparation for the area of disturbed weather developing over the Bahamas that will eventually move north into the floater area.

Laters.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good thing I read your post before I said the same thing I am sure you were thinking. LOL
LOL
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
According to the European weekly model a large trough will set up in the East with a cool-down by the end of next week into Memorial Day Weekend.

I wonder how that Southwest Caribbean disturbance will interact with that trough If it develops big and heads northeast?
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Where's Patrap with the hot towers video? lol
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
763. BDAwx
Breaking News: Water truckers call emergency meeting over shortage fears

Bermuda's dry spell is getting worse. We still only have 0.14" of rain for all of May. deficit for the year is approaching four and a half inches which isn't that bad but all of our water is collected from the rain into tanks. we need around and inch/week for this to work. Last time that it got very bad was 2005...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I was going to say someone but I would probably get banned, lol.
Good thing I read your post before I said the same thing I am sure you were thinking. LOL
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 202355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 20 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED AT LOW LATITUDE...S OF 6N...AS
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 29W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 11N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AS NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 48W-57W
WITH AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION W OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 52W-59W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE CONTINUES ENHANCING AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER INLAND
COLOMBIA...EASTERN PANAMA...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS S OF 12N
BETWEEN 73W-78W IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10 KT. WHILE
LARGELY LOCATED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION...SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 13N W OF 80W...INCLUDING
INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND SOUTHERN
NICARAGUA.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 4N32W 5N41W 5N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE W
AFRICA COAST BETWEEN 10W-14W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NORTH AND 300 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS E
OF 30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 41W S OF 9N WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES VERY DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA
WITH NEARLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW FROM ACROSS MEXICO
TO 80W. THIS UPPER LEVEL REGIME IS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE GENERALLY E TO SE WINDS UP TO 15 KT. HOWEVER...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CUBA OVER THE SE GULF WATERS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA PROVIDING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 25N E OF 88W. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOST
FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 24N85W THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N87W. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT WESTWARD AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE
SW GULF THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
19N87W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING NE FROM THE LOW TO
WESTERN CUBA AND S-SW FROM THE LOW TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING EAST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 77W-86W. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA...
EXTENDING NE INTO THE W ATLC E OF 80W...ALL LOCATED EAST OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ALONG 32N74W TO 20N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SPREAD FARTHER EAST...REMAINING LARGELY N OF 17N
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND GREATER ANTILLES THIS
EVENING DUE TO A BROAD AREA OF CONVERGENT TRADE WINDS. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOW TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND ANTICIPATED CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR OVER THE W ATLC ALONG
70W OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...CONTINUED PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE PROGRESSING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 13N BETWEEN 75W-87W...INCLUDING INLAND
SECTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE W ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG
32N74W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N80W. THE LAST FEW VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS NE OF THE BAHAMAS WITH A 1014 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 25N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 75W THROUGH
THE LOW FROM 22N-28N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE W ATLC DUE TO THE SURFACE
FEATURE AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN FROM 19N-32N
BETWEEN 60W AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FURTHER DEVELOP AS IT MOVES E-NE OVER
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED
TO THE NW...ANALYZED FROM 32N74W TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.
THIS FRONT IS LARGELY SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND IS
FORECAST TO BECOME DIFFUSE BY LATE FRIDAY. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
ENGULFS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 70W ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB
HIGH CENTERED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 37N45W.
HOWEVER...TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE LOCATED OVER THE TROPICAL
NORTH AND SW NORTH ATLC AREA. THE FIRST SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM 18N50W TO 13N53W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
14N-19N BETWEEN 48W-55W. THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS NORTH OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N-23N ALONG 62W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
LOCATED WITHIN 200 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A COLD FRONT ALSO
SKIRTS THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ENTERING THE
EASTERN ATLC NEAR 32N31W SW TO 30N37W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Any reason that they would have moved the floater off the east coast? Models suggesting something might form off the front?
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I'm out for a while, later all.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting StadiumEffect:


I graduated so I'm back on island semi-permanently! I'll be here for the whole hurricane season...fingers crossed it's a quiet one for us, although I think it will be another one of those 'brush-and-go' years.
It seems ever since Ivan we are being affected more and more.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
kinda reminds me of a hot tower levi


That's exactly what one would look like in a hurricane. An overshooting thunderstorm and a hot tower are pretty much synonymous.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting Levi32:
Final visible shot of Cozumel as the sun sets...capturing a beautiful overshooting thunderstorm top.

kinda reminds me of a hot tower levi
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hey stormpetrol I am not so woried about the low that is right beside us but the one in the SW Carib
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
i rather be the chimp then the chump pat
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691 wadedanielsmith "Nano-machines and bio-engineering are the future of medicine... ...a Personal Artificial Robotic Immune System (PARIS)... ...Translation? One shot will make a person forever invincible to virtually all pathogens."

Between blackhat hackers and MicroSoft's softwear record, far more likely to turn ya into grey goo. Even if MicroSoft were to get their coding right -- which they've never done before -- ya'd just end up being a zombie.
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Caribbean warming again.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Final visible shot of Cozumel as the sun sets...capturing a beautiful overshooting thunderstorm top.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting stormpetrol:

732. KEEPEROFTHEGATE

KOTG Those are some cold tops!
yes they are there is turning there as well with deep low pressure right under convection not sure where its going if anywhere and may be just shear playing tricks on us we stand by and wait
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Quoting Patrap:
The Chimp dosent have a Handle here does he,..or she ?


I was going to say someone but I would probably get banned, lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
The Chimp dosent have a Handle here does he,..or she ?


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129796
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Ya know Levi, you had to post those images a few days before I go on a cruise. Not what I wanted to be thinking about this early in the year ya know.


Lol, better get the cruise over with now before these things start winding up into something more fierce.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting MrstormX:


What does this mean forecast wise?
wait watch see what it does
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Quoting atmoaggie:

At least then they *might* score better than that chimp...


The chimp had a bounded dataset, couldn't go above 12.
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Quoting atmoaggie:

At least then they *might* score better than that chimp...
LMAO
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
The GOES-east #2 floater has been moved to the SE US coast.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting atmoaggie:

At least then they *might* score better than that chimp...
eek eek eek
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
latest wv image appears to be moving due south our AOI in nw carb towards the sw carb.

Not sure the low is moving much....the cloud tops are being blown to the east by higher shear though
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Maybe they will wait to Dec 1, show 100% skill.

At least then they *might* score better than that chimp...
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Ya know Levi, you had to post those images a few days before I go on a cruise. Not what I wanted to be thinking about this early in the year ya know.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
latest wv image appears to be moving due south our AOI in nw carb towards the sw carb.


What does this mean forecast wise?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


The convection is expanding southward, but the low is not.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700

732. KEEPEROFTHEGATE

KOTG Those are some cold tops!
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Very nice, brisk southwest wind being reported near 18N, 87W south of the Cozumel low center.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
So, you are back on island for this hurricane season or just a break from school ?


I graduated so I'm back on island semi-permanently! I'll be here for the whole hurricane season...fingers crossed it's a quiet one for us, although I think it will be another one of those 'brush-and-go' years.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys it look like a TD over here visibility is less than a mile rain rain and rain and verywind the seas have picked up I live in west bay the northern part

Hey WKC, How are ya? Even if that AOI doesn't organize more and move due East, it could play havoc on Northwest POint and Georgetown in my opinion.
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latest wv image appears to be moving due south our AOI in nw carb towards the sw carb.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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