El Niño is done; Haiti at risk of heavy rains next week; oil spill update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:09 PM GMT on May 19, 2010

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El Niño rapidly weakened during late April and early May, with sea surface temperatures over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", falling a significant 0.65°C in just one month. Temperatures in the region are now in the "neutral" range, just 0.18°C above average, and well below the 0.5°C threshold to be considered an El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The speed of the collapse of El Niño makes it likely that a La Niña event is on its way this summer. This is what happened during the last strong El Niño event, in 1998--El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. Six of the sixteen El Niño models (updated as of April 15) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season, and I expect more models will jump on the La Niña bandwagon when the May data updates later this week. The demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, have prompted two major hurricane forecasting groups (tropicalstormrisk.com and Colorado State University) to predict a significantly above average 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Over the full 160-year period we have records of Atlantic hurricanes, La Niña years have typically had more hurricanes, and more strong hurricanes, compared to neutral years. However, since 1995, there hasn't been any difference between neutral and La Niña years in terms of hurricane activity. La Niña conditions typically cause cool and wet conditions over the Caribbean in summer, but do not have much of an impact on U.S. temperatures or precipitation.


Figure 1. Oil spill edge over the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday, May 19, as seen from NASA's M ODIS instrument. Note that a band of cumulus clouds formed along the edge of the oil spill. I theorize this is because the low level wind flow out of the southeast moves faster over the oil, since the oil suppresses wave action. As the winds cross the spill boundary into rougher, clean water, they slow down, forcing the air to pile up and create updrafts that then spawn cumulus clouds. See my post on what oil might do to a hurricane for more information on how oil reduces wave action.

Oil spill update
Clouds over the Gulf of Mexico have again foiled satellite imaging of the extent of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, though through breaks in the clouds it appears that a significant amount of the oil that was pulled southwards towards the Loop Current is now caught in a counter-clockwise rotating eddy just to the north of the Loop Current. However, some oil has escaped this eddy and is on its way south towards the Florida Keys. According to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA, the tongue of oil flowing southwards has at most "light" concentrations. The oil will grow more dilute as it travels the 500 miles to the Florida Keys. My present expectation is that the oil entering the Loop Current this week will cause only minor problems in the Keys next week. However, there is a lot of uncertainty about what the oil may do to the fragile Keys ecosystem. See my post yesterday for answers to many of the common questions I get about the spill.

Oil spill resources
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
HYCOM ocean current forecasts from LSU


Figure 2. Precipitation forecast from today's 8am EDT run of the NAVY NOGAPS model, valid 7 days from now. Precipitation amounts in excess of 70 mm (2.8") in 12 hours are predicted over Haiti, due to a tropical disturbance in the Western Caribbean. Image credit: U.S. Navy.

Potential serious rainfall threat to Haiti next week
Long-range forecasts from the GFS and NOGAPS models over the past few days have consistently been predicting an increase in moisture and decrease in wind shear over the Western Caribbean 5 - 7 days from now, and I expect that a tropical disturbance with heavy rains will develop in the Western Caribbean early next week. A strong subtropical jet stream over the southern Gulf of Mexico will steer the disturbance to the north and east, and the NOGAPS model shows heavy rains in excess of six inches impacting Haiti Wednesday through Thursday of next week. Rains of this magnitude are capable of causing a serious emergency with high loss of life in earthquake-shattered Haiti, and all interests in that nation should closely monitor the situation over the coming week. It is too early to speculate on the possibility of the disturbance becoming a tropical depression. The wunderblogs of StormW and Weather456, who are now featured bloggers for the coming hurricane season, have more information on this potential development, plus the possible development of a subtropical storm between Florida and Bermuda next week.

Major severe weather outbreak over Oklahoma expected tonight
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has put much of Oklahoma in its High Risk region for severe weather today, warning that "The setup appears most favorable for large, relatively slow moving intense storms with large hail. A couple strong tornadoes also may occur."

I'll be back with a new post Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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461. auburn (Mod)
Heavy oil hits Louisiana shore
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Interesting -- don't shoot me, I am just sharing ....

Chapter 8: Fossil Fuels - Coal, Oil and Natural Gas
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post 415- like we've tapped into Hell

quick question: when WAS the NOAA update supposed to come out, and when IS it going to come out?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:


it does seem to always be next week, doesn't it?


but its not, the models have generally tabbed the week of May 20th-27th as the week for a storms formation
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7823
There's something that bothers me about this "junk shot" attempt at plugging up the well with mud, golf balls and cement. If something so simple works, great, but the question then becomes "why wasn't this simple technique the first quick attempt 2 weeks ago"?
.
.
The answer would be one of 2 things. Either:
.
1. BP and the management, consultants, engineers, etc. are criminally negligent after the fact. It already looks like they're negligent before the fact.
.
2. There's some risk here that they're not revealing. My nightmare is that the "junk shot" may clog the leak at the well but cause a stress along the fault line, which could potentially be an exponentially worse catastrophe then we have already.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


it does seem to always be next week, doesn't it?


In the Caribbean we call it " soon come "
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting pottery:
post 436, Patrap.
Some encouraging noises there.
But the crux of the matter is in the 3rd paragraph, which says that BP are still not sure how much pressure will be needed to back-flow the oil in the well, and force it back down the drillpipe.
They have to be pretty confident that the pressure of the rising oil, PLUS the pressure needed to back-flow, will not blow the BOP completely, or blow the riser off the top of the BOP.
I would not like to be the one making that call. At all.
Troubles, man.
Did your Calabash tree finally get a big drink of watah Pott?
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
Quoting pottery:
post 436, Patrap.
Some encouraging noises there.
But the crux of the matter is in the 3rd paragraph, which says that BP are still not sure how much pressure will be needed to back-flow the oil in the well, and force it back down the drillpipe.
They have to be pretty confident that the pressure of the rising oil, PLUS the pressure needed to back-flow, will not blow the BOP completely, or blow the riser off the top of the BOP.
I would not like to be the one making that call. At all.
Troubles, man.


Pressure is the name of the game in the Deep water Drilling World..it created the Mess were in.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
451. Hurricanes101
1:43 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Quoting hydrus:
Sounds like Dune.


It is, I think the spelling of the planet is Arrakis though lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7823
450. nweatherlover
1:43 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Quoting Weather456:
An occluded low - West coast


That's just about ready to blast through my neck of the woods. What is an occluded low? I know they said we are gonna get some good winds.
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 42
449. MiamiHurricanes09
1:42 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Brand new blog post, feel free to check it out and comment on your opinions, I will try to have another post by Friday.

Hurricane Season Blog #4: The season Might Start Early
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
448. hydrus
1:42 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Quoting Patrap:
..The Harkonen's can stop the flow..

It must flow..

Iracus is doomed
Sounds like Dune.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
447. Cavin Rawlins
1:40 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Anything new on the forecast models 456?


Nothing since this afternoon. The next runs begin close to mid-night.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
446. pottery
1:40 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
post 436, Patrap.
Some encouraging noises there.
But the crux of the matter is in the 3rd paragraph, which says that BP are still not sure how much pressure will be needed to back-flow the oil in the well, and force it back down the drillpipe.
They have to be pretty confident that the pressure of the rising oil, PLUS the pressure needed to back-flow, will not blow the BOP completely, or blow the riser off the top of the BOP.
I would not like to be the one making that call. At all.
Troubles, man.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24390
445. Unfriendly
1:37 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
this guys got a funnel cloud on live streaming

http://weather.wdtinc.com/popout/?M=10183&C=20184&V=10078&U=10078&P=true


baaah nvm he stopped the stream... dontk now why, odd for a chaser to stop recording a dropping nado...
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 317
444. hercj
1:37 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Quoting atmoaggie:
Alert! Officials have found a collection of pools of tar in Southern California. Test samples have been collected and are currently aboard our government's fastest jet on their way to be tested to determine the source.

The tar was found near Wilshire Boulevard in Los Angeles.

Some locals have been complaining about the odor, as well. Brandi Hernandez said "I did notice just today that the air has a petroleum smell. I think we should have everyone at BP fired, even though I work at the station on the corner. Hmmm, or maybe this tar was deported by Arizona."

Joe Blow also states "the odor is unbearable. Smells like a refinery with the tar, oil, and methane. We should get off fossil fuels so things like these tar pits will not happen again."

Scientists mostly agree that the Los Angeles tar find most likely is unrelated to BP's woes. But one we consult frequently, Political Scientist Dr. Peter Lefty at University of California in Berkeley said, "well, BP did start drilling before Wilshire Boulevard existed, maybe there is a connection".

(if any of this rings true, I cannot help you)

I am loving this. Has everyone forgotten that oil comes from the earth. It is a NATURAL substance. As a fellow Aggie keep after it.
Member Since: September 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319
443. Patrap
1:36 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
..The Harkonen's can stop the flow..

It must flow..

Iracus is doomed
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
442. kmanislander
1:34 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Good evening all

I have been following the discussions about the tropical and sub tropical cyclones that the models always seem to show coming " next week ".

It will be more than interesting to see what we have, or don't have as the case may be, come next Wednesday through Saturday.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
441. Patrap
1:34 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com

DATE: May 19, 2010 19:42:39 CST
BP:Simultaneous Operations Overview Graphic - May 19, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
440. aspectre
1:33 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
400 DEKRE "Diesel fuel doesn't form tar balls in 5 days"

Diesel doesn't form tarballs at all (unless ya sequester it deep underground for a sufficient amount of geological time....or crack it and chemically convert it).
As far as ship fuels, it'd take something like bunker oil to create tarballs; which are made mostly of the greases, waxes, resins, and asphaltenes found in the heavier fractions of crude oil.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
439. Hurricanes101
1:31 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Anything new on the forecast models 456?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7823
438. Patrap
1:30 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
437. Cavin Rawlins
1:29 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Quoting stormhank:
Will Dr Masters be giving his 2010 hurricane outlook soon>>


I think he normally does it close to June 1, not a 100% sure tho.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
436. Patrap
1:28 AM GMT on May 20, 2010



BP may make first attempt to seal Gulf oil well Sunday or Monday
By Jaquetta White, The Times-Picayune
May 19, 2010, 8:10PM


BP could begin pumping mud into a broken well gushing oil into the Gulf of Mexico off the Louisiana coast late Sunday or Monday, company Chief Operating Officer Doug Suttles said Wednesday. The "kill mud" would stop the flow of oil from the well before it is permanently shut with cement.

The process would be BP's first attempt at permanently closing the well.

But Suttles said the company has not yet committed to using the procedure and is still testing it. The company is measuring the oil's pressure to ensure that the mud can be pumped in at a high enough speed to overcome the oil without causing additional leaks.

BP is working to contain two oil leaks on a pipe attached to the sunken Deepwater Horizon rig. The rig, which BP leased from Transocean, exploded about 50 miles off the Louisiana coast on April 20 and subsequently sank. Eleven people on the rig were killed.

Estimates of gushing oil debated

BP and the federal government have estimated that 5,000 barrels of oil are gushing into the Gulf each day from the leaks, though some experts estimate that five times that much could be escaping.

The process of pumping mud into the well, called a top kill, requires injecting 40 barrels a minute of kill mud -- a total of about 50,000 barrels -- into the well and then sealing it with cement. The material will be pumped at high pressure down the choke and kill lines of the blowout preventer, which failed to seal the well after the rig exploded, to push the oil back into the reservoir. Choke and kill lines are used to control the amount and pressure of drilling mud in the wellbore so that surges of oil and natural gas can be kept under control.

Should the top-kill method fail, BP is considering other methods of stopping or containing the flow until the permanent stopper, a relief well, is completed in August, Suttles said.

'We're very encouraged'

So far, BP's only successful subsea effort to manage the gusher has been to begin to contain the flow.

A tube inserted into the broken pipe leaking oil into the Gulf of Mexico is collecting about 3,000 barrels of oil and 14,000 cubic feet of natural gas per day, Suttles said. The mile-long collection tube began pumping oil to a waiting ship on Sunday. It initially collected about 1,000 barrels per day, but BP has ramped up the effort in recent days.

"It's performing well," Suttles said. "We're very encouraged."

Officials also addressed concerns that the oil is heading for a powerful current that could take it to Florida.

Charlie Henry, a scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said a light sheen is nearing what is called the Loop Current but was 10 days away from reaching it. Henry said he expects the oil to degrade or dissipate before reaching Florida.

"The bulk of the oil is still way away to the northwest of the Loop Current," Henry said

Henry said the Loop Current's pattern, like that of the oil, is not constant, so NOAA is monitoring it every day. Henry said he does not believe that large pockets of oil beneath the surface are threatening to enter the Loop Current, either.

"I would have no reason to suspect we're seeing anything but we've seen," Henry said. "I'm pretty confident with our observations now."


Jaquetta White can be reached at jwhite@timespicayune.com or 504.826.3494.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
435. hydrus
1:28 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Quoting Patrap:
Thanks for all the radar posts Pat.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
434. pottery
1:26 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Post 431. Thanks Levi. I was not tuned into that...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24390
432. stormhank
1:24 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Will Dr Masters be giving his 2010 hurricane outlook soon>>
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1386
431. Levi32
1:23 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Quoting pottery:

Wow, the BH reaches almost to 10n in the Atl in, that image. Is that a normal situation?


Although the Azores-Bermuda High is currently a bit stronger than normal, surface pressures over the tropics south of 20N are normal to below-normal, so the high isn't extending farther south than normal.



Climatologically at this time of year, it is common for the 1016 isobar to extend as far south as 15N. In the model image, it only makes it to 18-19N. This also shows that the high is not extending farther south than usual.



Gotta run now, attending a friend's graduation tonight. Later all.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26654
430. Bordonaro
1:22 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Quoting Weather456:


has nothing to do with SSTs. The cyclone is expected to become an asymmetric shallow warm core system. It derives its energy from baroclinic forces rather than barotropic forces from warm ssts.

Thanks for the explanation.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
429. Patrap
1:21 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
428. Cavin Rawlins
1:21 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro:
#409,Weather 456, much better :o)!!


Not really, I just changed it to what it is at the present moment. Read post 426.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
427. pottery
1:21 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Quoting WaterWitch11:


how long does the transition take?
I am not sure, but more than a week, I would imagine. Depends too on the viscosity (thickness) of the original oil. It would need to be pretty thick on the surface (or deep underwater for that matter??!!) for it to lump-up like that. Or collected somewhere, like in an eddy?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24390
426. Cavin Rawlins
1:20 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro:

Please explain how that is possible, it's over 50F/10C water temps!!!!!


has nothing to do with SSTs. The cyclone is expected to become an asymmetric shallow warm core system. It derives its energy from baroclinic forces rather than barotropic forces from warm ssts.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
425. Bordonaro
1:20 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
#409,Weather 456, much better :o)!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
424. Patrap
1:19 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Quoting pottery:
Yer just a dam denialist, Atmo. How do you KNOW that these tarpools in S.CAL are not the direct result of this BP thing?
In fact, I heard that BP drilled deeper than they were supposed to, and oil is gushing out of an inverted hole in Indonesia. Residents there say they were sitting in a bar, and a great big drill came up through the floor, followed by faint panicky voices shouting "OH MAN, Stop! pullout, pullout" and when the drill dissapeared back into the hole, out came oil.
Needless to say, they are thrilled to bits at their new found wealth.


BP is going to seal this well and forget it.

Its BAD Mojo and its nicknamed the "Well from Hell" already.


Now,.. they will likely drill somewhere else in this particular find, but they make ya feel betta by saying the first.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
423. atmoaggie
1:19 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Quoting Ossqss:
Can anyone find newer stats as to where oil in the ocean comes from? Do you think this has changed?

The text on this site is presented as an archival version of the script of "Ocean Planet," a 1995 Smithsonian Institution traveling exhibition. The content reflects the state of knowledge at the time of the exhibition, and has not been updated. Source http://seawifs.gsfc.nasa.gov/OCEAN_PLANET/HTML/peril_oil_pollution.html

I don't know about a newer version...

But, I think we can go with it for now.


millions of gallons of oil each source puts into the oceans worldwide each year

Down the Drain: 363 Million Gallons
Used engine oil can end up in waterways. An average oil change uses five quarts; one change can contaminate a million gallons of fresh water. Much oil in runoff from land and municipal and industrial wastes ends up in the oceans.

Road runoff adds up. Every year oily road runoff from a city of 5 million could contain as much oil as one large tanker spill.

Routine Maintenance: 137 Million Gallons
Every year, bilge cleaning and other ship operations release millions of gallons of oil into navigable waters, in thousands of discharges of just a few gallons each.

Up in Smoke: 92 Million Gallons
Air pollution, mainly from cars and industry, places hundreds of tons of hydrocarbons into the oceans each year. Particles settle, and rain washes hydrocarbons from the air into the oceans.

Natural Seeps: 62 Million Gallons
Some ocean oil "pollution" is natural. Seepage from the ocean bottom and eroding sedimentary rocks releases oil.

Big Spills: 37 Million Gallons
Only about 5 percent of oil pollution in oceans is due to major tanker accidents, but one big spill can disrupt sea and shore life for miles.

Offshore Drilling: 15 Million Gallons
Offshore oil production can cause ocean oil pollution, from spills and operational discharges.

(No, I am not into defending BP. I live here, enjoy fishing in the marshes. This area does not need the problems from the ecological issues to the economical ones created by their errors, which could have serious effects, locally, for quite some time. Just a realist that enjoys educating people enough for them to have a perspective. ;-)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
422. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:18 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Quoting Weather456:
An occluded low - West coast

aww looks like big fish gonna have a little wind so sorry big fish

heheheheheh
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54398
421. MiamiHurricanes09
1:17 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Anyone have the link to some shear models?
Nevermind, I found it in my 2000+ bookmarks, lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
420. Patrap
1:17 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Deepwater Horizon Response Press Conference, Part 1

Joint Public Affairs Support Element More Videos from Joint Public Affairs Support Element RSS
Video by Lt. Scott Sagisi
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Login to Vote!

Date Taken: 05.19.2010
Posted: 05.19.2010 16:58
Video Location: LA, US
Continues to brief the media on the oil spill relief effort from the Deepwater Horizon oil rig spill near Louisiana. Part 1 of 4. Oilspill10


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
419. MiamiHurricanes09
1:16 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Anyone have the link to some shear models?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
418. leo305
1:16 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
A 1006 MB LOW has formed on the southern end of the trough over the YUCATAN..
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
417. pottery
1:15 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Yer just a dam denialist, Atmo. How do you KNOW that these tarpools in S.CAL are not the direct result of this BP thing?
In fact, I heard that BP drilled deeper than they were supposed to, and oil is gushing out of an inverted hole in Indonesia. Residents there say they were sitting in a bar, and a great big drill came up through the floor, followed by faint panicky voices shouting "OH MAN, Stop! pullout, pullout" and when the drill dissapeared back into the hole, out came oil.
Needless to say, they are thrilled to bits at their new found wealth.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24390
416. hydrus
1:14 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Quoting pottery:

Tar Balls are the remains of oil (to put it simply)
Tar does not come from oilwells. The balls are formed when the volatile fluids in the oil evaporate out, or are taken out . What remains is a more solid consistency, not even looking like oil.
It is still dread stuff.
But the transition from oil to tar takes a long time in water.
So I would say that these are not from the sunk well. Although they may very well be from that area.
Somebody probably dumped (tarballs) or whatever it is thinking that it would be pinned on bp.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21416
415. Patrap
1:14 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
DeepwaterHorizonJIC — May 19, 2010 — GULF OF MEXICO - Gas from the damaged Deepwater Horizon wellhead is burned by the drillship Discoverer Enterprise May 16, 2010 in a process known as flaring. Gas and oil from the wellhead are being brought to the surface through a riser insertion tube that was placed inside the damaged pipe. U.S. Coast Guard video by Petty Officer 3rd Class Patrick Kelley.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
414. Bordonaro
1:14 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Quoting Weather456:
Cyclone becoming a warm seclusion


Please explain how that is possible, it's over 50F/10C water temps!!!!!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
413. Patrap
1:13 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com

BP:Relief Well and Subsea Containment Graphic - May 19, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128667
412. leo305
1:12 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
I am watching that trough of low pressure over the Yucatan..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8vor4.html

it's moving east into the carribean, and shear is forecasted to drop steeply in that area..

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

plus it's flaring up at night, not just during the day.
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
411. WaterWitch11
1:11 AM GMT on May 20, 2010
Quoting pottery:

Tar Balls are the remains of oil (to put it simply)
Tar does not come from oilwells. The balls are formed when the volatile fluids in the oil evaporate out, or are taken out . What remains is a more solid consistency, not even looking like oil.
It is still dread stuff.
But the transition from oil to tar takes a long time in water.
So I would say that these are not from the sunk well. Although they may very well be from that area.


how long does the transition take?
Member Since: August 11, 2008 Posts: 3 Comments: 1637

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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