Clouds, unstable Loop Current making oil spill prediction difficult

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:48 PM GMT on May 18, 2010

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It's cloudy over the Gulf of Mexico today, so it is difficult to tell how far into the Loop Current the Deepwater Horizon oil has penetrated using visible satellite imagery. Satellite imagery yesterday from NASA's MODIS instrument confirmed that a tongue of oil moved southeast from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and entered the Gulf of Mexico's Loop Current. However, Synthetic Aperture Radar imagery from the European Envisat satellite posted at ROFFS Ocean Forecasting Service shows that while some of the tongue of oil that entered the Loop Current appears to be circulating southwards towards the Florida Keys, perhaps 80% of the oil in this tongue is caught in a counter-clockwise circulating eddy along the north side of the Loop Current. This oil may eventually circulate around and enter the Loop Current, but not for at least three days.


Figure 1. Oil spill forecast for this Thursday night as simulated by the 6pm EDT Monday May 17 runs of the Navy Gulf of Mexico HYCOM nowcast/forecast system and the Global HYCOM + NCODA Analysis from the HYCOM Consortium. See the University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group website for more information. There are considerable differences between the two models, due in part to the fact that they have much different depictions of the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and ocean currents at the beginning of their runs. The warm Loop Current is visible as the red colors of the SST field that form a heart-shaped area in the Gulf.

How long will it be until oil reaches the Keys?
Once oil gets into the Loop Current, the 1 - 2 mph speed of the current should allow the oil to travel the 500 miles to the Florida Keys in 5 - 10 days. Portions of the Loop Current flow at speed up to 4 mph, so the fastest transport could be 4 - 5 days.

How much oil has made it into the Loop Current?
According to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA, the tongue of oil flowing southwards has, at most, "light" concentrations. The oil will grow more dilute as it travels the 500 miles to the Florida Keys, and most of the oil appears to be caught in a smaller counter-clockwise rotating eddy on the north side of the Loop Current. My present expectation is that the oil entering the Loop Current this week will cause only minor problems in the Keys next week. However, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding how much oil will get to the Keys, and we cannot rule out the possibility of an ecological disaster in the fragile Keys ecosystem.

How is the Loop Current changing?
The Loop Current has been highly chaotic and unstable over the past week, making it difficult to predict how the ocean currents near the spill will behave. According to ROFFS Ocean Fishing Service, which has done a tremendous job tracking the spill, the Loop Current surged 7 - 10 miles northward Sunday and Monday. The Loop Current has gotten more contorted since Friday, and may be ready to cut off into a clockwise-rotating Loop Current Eddy. This process occurs every 6 - 11 months, with the clockwise-rotating ring of water slowly drifting west-southwest towards Texas. The last eddy broke off ten months ago, so the Loop Current is due to shed another eddy in the next few months. The latest 1-month forecast from the U.S. Navy does not predict an eddy forming, but these forecasts are not very reliable. If a Loop Current Eddy does break off, oil getting entrained into it might orbit the center of the Gulf of Mexico for many months inside the eddy. However, this eddy will probably reattach and detach from the main Loop Current flow for at least a month following when it breaks off, so oil will continue to flow through the Keys during this initial month.

When will the flow of oil into the Loop Current shut off?
Winds over the oil spill location are expected to be light and onshore at 5 - 10 knots through Saturday. This means that the chaotic contortions of the Loop Current will primarily control how much oil gets into it, making it difficult to predict when the flow will shut off. The long range (and thus unreliable) forecast for next week from the GFS model calls for a continuation of light winds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Thus, the flow of oil into the Loop Current could occur intermittently for several weeks.

Who besides the Keys are at risk next week from the Loop Current oil?
As I discussed in an earlier post, the coast of Southwest Florida from Tampa Bay to the Everglades is a "Forbidden Zone" for surface-based transport of ocean water to the coast, and is probably not at risk from this week's Loop Current oil. The northwest coast of Cuba east of Havana and the coast of Southeast Florida from the Keys to West Palm Beach are at the most risk. The western shores of the western-most Bahama Islands and the U.S. coast north of West Palm Beach northwards to Cape Hatteras are at slight risk. It would likely take ocean eddies 2 - 9 weeks to transport the oil to these locations, and the oil would probably be so dilute that ecosystem damage would probably be minor, at most. At this point, I see no reason for cancellation of vacation plans to any of the beach areas that may potentially be affected by the oil.

What is happening to the plumes of oil at depth?
Two research missions over the past week have detected substantial plumes of oil at depth, moving to the southwest. The deepest of the these plumes, near the site of the blowout at 5,000 feet depth, is in a region of slow ocean currents and has not moved much. At depths closer to the surface, the currents get stronger, and oil within a few hundred feet of the surface--if there is any--could potentially have been dragged into the Loop Current. At this point, we don't have a very good picture of how much oil is at depth and where it might be headed.

Oil spill resources
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
HYCOM ocean current forecasts from LSU

The tropics
For those of you interested in a detailed look at the early season tropical weather outlook, consult the excellent wunderblogs of StormW and Weather456, who are now featured bloggers for the coming hurricane season. We have some models predicting a possible subtropical storm off the U.S. East coast next week, but this does not appear to be a significant concern for land areas at this time. More concerning is the possibility that an area of disturbed weather will develop across the Western Caribbean late next week. While wind shear will likely keep anything in the Western Caribbean from developing, several models are predicting that this disturbance may bring major flooding rains to earthquake-ravaged Haiti late next week.

I'll be back with a new post Wednesday afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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1220. hydrus
9:13 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Quoting Floodman:
NEW BLOG
I posted it on your March 17 blog. Why, I have no idea. I thought it worth mentioning, that disturbance being detected by the models in the Caribbean Sea would be very near or over that very warm pool of water showing up on the water temperature map.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20492
1219. xcool
8:21 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
oh new blog
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
1218. Floodman
8:19 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1217. CaneWarning
8:19 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
I wish they'd shut down all drilling in the gulf. It isn't worth it. I guess we won't realize that until the Gulf of Mexico is devoid of life and our beaches are covered in oil.
Member Since: April 26, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3667
1216. xcool
8:19 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
i'm very close to mississippi gulf coast ...
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1214. Floodman
8:17 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
i think flood a point a lot of people do not realize is the affects a tropical system in the gulf would have on the oil spill. a hurricane as we all know will pick up the seawater in this case mixed with oil and throw it into the inland bays rivers and esctutaires. in my opinion worse case senario would be a storm that took a track like george, through the keys, into the eastern gulf on a nw course to landfall on the north central gulf coast. with the various changes in wind direction with surge and waves would be catostrophic.


On the surface it would certainly seem that way...and given the sheer volume of oil in the GOM right now, I would have to lean that way, but there is some debate going on right now as to what form the spill would take, given a Hurricane in the GOM, of whatever track.

Best case scenario? The main effected oil would have weathered and taken the form of "tarballs" (man, am I tired for saying that over and over) and simply cover the beach in a more easily dealt with form...the other option is too insane to even contemplate...a couple of million gallons of oil spread on the beach like molasses from say Biloxi to Fort Walton Beach. You're looking at several billion in that clean up alone, and that would only be for the beaches

Okay, one lone political comment here: congress needs to get off it's a$$ and raise the stakes for the oil companies...after the bill comes due is too late
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1213. CaribBoy
8:17 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Quoting Floodman:
Note the date for this storm...I believe this the proverbial "earliest storm" everyone talks about:



Just incredibe for march (100MPH Cat 2) plus in the eastern carib.
Member Since: October 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5927
1212. xcool
8:17 PM GMT on May 19, 2010


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
1211. Hurricanes101
8:16 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


And...check out the congregation of tracks to the west that year. Even without the unobserved storms in the eastern Atlantic, which were undoubtedly there, this looks very similar to the overall pattern I think is shaping up this year.



I might have inadvertently stumbled upon a new analog year for 2010 lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7361
1210. pottery
8:16 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
SAINTSHURIFAN wasn't trying to get in anyones business.. What he was saying is true. If someone is to make a comment about anything pro conservative they get blasted, Poofed and all sorts of things.

We should keep politics out of the discussion. This is a weather blog and it should be kept that way!!!!

Perhaps it is the WAY that people say things. I dont think that anyone has the right to come in here and blast away at the majority. And then to proceed to lecture on theology, rights, and personal choice.
I personnaly object to that.
This blog is a unique place with people from all around the world here. Talking WEATHER.
Keep it so, or stay away.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24022
1209. MiamiHurricanes09
8:15 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Quoting Levi32:


And...check out the congregation of tracks to the west that year. Even without the unobserved storms in the eastern Atlantic, which were undoubtedly there, this looks very similar to the overall pattern I think is shaping up this year.

Yeah but I doubt we will see so many system curving out to sea.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1208. Hurricanes101
8:15 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
To go further 5 storms made direct landfall on the US that season

Storm 3 made landfall in Mississippi on June 13th as a TS

Storm 4 made landfall in West Florida on July 27th as a Hurricane

Storm 9 made landfall near Brownsville, TX on September 21st as a Hurricane

Storm 13 made 2 landfalls; 1st in southern LA on October 18th and 2nd in Mississippi as a TS on the 19th

Storm 16 made landfall just north of Tampa, FL on October 29th as a TS
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1207. AussieStorm
8:15 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
PSSSST... NEW BLOG
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1206. Cavin Rawlins
8:14 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
I had not seen this 12Z NOGAPS 168 hrs, really agressive south of Hispaniola

Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1205. Levi32
8:12 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Quoting Weather456:


Talk about dejavu.

1887 is also the third most active hurricane season with 19 storms. tied with 1995


And...check out the congregation of tracks to the west that year. Even without the unobserved storms in the eastern Atlantic, which were undoubtedly there, this looks very similar to the overall pattern I think is shaping up this year.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
1204. MiamiHurricanes09
8:11 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Quoting extreme236:


I agree that two storms would seem unlikely...I guess there is a small chance for it to happen. I'd say the possible subtropical storm is most likely to occur if I had to pick one.
Me too.
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1203. Levi32
8:10 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101:
1887 had a storm form on May 15th and May 17th

1 Tropical Storm #1 15-20 MAY 60
2 Tropical Storm #2 17-21 MAY 50


oddly enough, 1st storm formed south of Bermuda went north and northeast and clipped Newfoundland. The 2nd storm formed south of Jamaica, moved north over Jamaica, hit Eastern Cuba and the Bahamas before dying out

1887 had 19 storms, 11 hurricanes and 2 recorded major hurricanes. The 3rd storm of 1887 formed on June 11th

I will look for other instances


Wow, definitely dejavu. Thanks for digging that up.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26547
1202. Floodman
8:10 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Quoting Baybuddy:
I enjoy this blog, but feel that it should be an apolitical (sp?) forum. We all share an intrest in the weather, and there are plenty of blogs out there that talk politics, so lets try to stay on topic.


Well said...now in practice, it may be a different story, but that's what the Ignore button is for
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1201. MiamiHurricanes09
8:09 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy:


What do you think about what the GFS, ECMWF, and the CMC is predicting? Pretty interesting, however I doubt imo we'll see TWO storms before May. I think the Caribbean system bears most watching.. the Caribbean water is equal of that you'd see in July.

Check this out.

TCHP May 18th, 2010.


May 18th, 2009. (featured a sole Category 2 in November)


May 17th, 2008. (Featured 3 Major hurricanes in the Caribbean, Gustav, Omar, and Paloma)


May 18th, 2007. (featured 2 Category 5 Hurricanes within weeks of each other in the Caribbean.. both as you know made landfall at that intensity.)


May 18th, 2006 (featured a sole Category 1 Hurricane, Ernesto)


May 18th, 2005 (you've heard the story before)

I disagree. Why? The system in the south Caribbean will get ripped apart(because of shear). Although the hybrid system will not affect any land unless the ECMWF is right, I think that it'll (the hybrid one) be the stronger of the two. And BTW, I think that the Euro will probably be right as it usually has a good handle on these types of scenarios.
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1200. StormChaser81
8:09 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Oz, you have yahoo Mail and more coming your way.
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1199. Floodman
8:09 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Quoting Snowlover123:


2010 looks slightly higher than 2005. 2005 I believe had its first storm in early June, if my memory serves me correct- TS Arlene, with 70 mph wind.


Arlene landfall 6-14, Brett landfall 6-30 and Cindy the first Hurricane of a very bad year, 7-11
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1198. Baybuddy
8:08 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
I enjoy this blog, but feel that it should be an apolitical (sp?) forum. We all share an intrest in the weather, and there are plenty of blogs out there that talk politics, so lets try to stay on topic.
Member Since: June 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1115
1197. Hurricanes101
8:08 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
It is also possible through further research that 1887 had 4 other classified systems

which would put the totals of the season to 23 (which if ever verified would make 1887 the 2nd most active season on record)
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7361
1196. Cavin Rawlins
8:08 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Blog Update from this morning

40-50% chance of La Nina this summer/fall; two areas to watch next week
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1195. Randyman
8:07 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2010

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL OK...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
OVER A LARGE PART OF OK AND NRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM SW KS INTO THE LWR MS VLY....

PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR WARM FRONT/DRYLINE
INTERSECTION IN WRN OK AND MAY ALSO DEVELOP SHORTLY ALONG LOW LEVEL
CONFLUENCE LOCATED EAST OF OKC. AS DRYLINE AND UPPER TROUGH
SHIFT EWD...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...REFERENCE WW 190. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE VEERED ACROSS SWRN OK AND WEAKENED
SOMEWHAT ALOFT AS VORTEX2 SOUNDING IN WRN OK SHOWED 850 MB WINDS
WERE 210/15KT COMPARED TO 35 KT AT OKC AT THE SAME TIME. REORIENTED
THE HIGH RISK AREA ALONG WARM FRONT...WHERE LOW LEVEL JET/SHEAR WILL
BE MAXIMIZED THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE HIGH RISK EXTENDS FROM NW OF
OKC ESEWD TO THE MUSKOGEE/MCALESTER AREAS AND HAS THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AS WELL AS EXTREME HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS. MLCAPE VALUES TO 3000 J/KG SOUTH OF WARM FRONT AND STRONGER
LOW LEVEL SHEAR NORTH OF WARM FRONT WILL FAVOR STRONG SUPERCELLS
WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MODERATE RISK AREA.

LATER TONIGHT...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO AND ONE OR MORE
MCS/S. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THESE SYSTEMS WILL ADVANCE FURTHER EWD
THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...SO THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXTENDED
FURTHER EWD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN MO/AR FOR LATE TONIGHT. THE
CONSOLIDATED OUTFLOW AND STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT INDICATES THE
PRIMARY THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.

..IMY.. 05/19/2010
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1194. SomeRandomTexan
8:07 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
SAINTSHURIFAN wasn't trying to get in anyones business.. What he was saying is true. If someone is to make a comment about anything pro conservative they get blasted, Poofed and all sorts of things.

We should keep politics out of the discussion. This is a weather blog and it should be kept that way!!!!
Member Since: August 30, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1837
1193. Snowlover123
8:05 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy:


What do you think about what the GFS, ECMWF, and the CMC is predicting? Pretty interesting, however I doubt imo we'll see TWO storms before May. I think the Caribbean system bears most watching.. the Caribbean water is equal of that you'd see in July.

Check this out.

TCHP May 18th, 2010.


May 18th, 2009. (featured a sole Category 2 in November)


May 17th, 2008. (Featured 3 Major hurricanes in the Caribbean, Gustav, Omar, and Paloma)


May 18th, 2007. (featured 2 Category 5 Hurricanes within weeks of each other in the Caribbean.. both as you know made landfall at that intensity.)


May 18th, 2006 (featured a sole Category 1 Hurricane, Ernesto)


May 18th, 2005 (you've heard the story before)



2010 looks slightly higher than 2005. 2005 I believe had its first storm in early June, if my memory serves me correct- TS Arlene, with 70 mph wind.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
1192. extreme236
8:05 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy:


What do you think about what the GFS, ECMWF, and the CMC is predicting? Pretty interesting, however I doubt imo we'll see TWO storms before May. I think the Caribbean system bears most watching.. the Caribbean water is equal of that you'd see in July.

Check this out.

TCHP May 18th, 2010.


May 18th, 2009. (featured a sole Category 2 in November)


May 17th, 2008. (Featured 3 Major hurricanes in the Caribbean, Gustav, Omar, and Paloma)


May 18th, 2007. (featured 2 Category 5 Hurricanes within weeks of each other in the Caribbean.. both as you know made landfall at that intensity.)


May 18th, 2006 (featured a sole Category 1 Hurricane, Ernesto)


May 18th, 2005 (you've heard the story before)



I agree that two storms would seem unlikely...I guess there is a small chance for it to happen. I'd say the possible subtropical storm is most likely to occur if I had to pick one.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1191. pottery
8:04 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Quoting lilElla:
Why is the Coast Guard turning away the press and well known scientists from documenting what is going on where the oil has come ashore?

Maybe the Coast Guard was worried that the press would scare the birdies that were flitting about in the reeds and stuff. Those cameras get pretty loud sometimes.........We must protect the wildlife you know.
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1190. Snowlover123
8:03 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101:
1952 storm



1978 storm



Ah, the good old days, when Tropical Cyclones formed in January. Good times! Now they only form from May-November. The sorrows of it all. Must be GW.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
1189. CycloneOz
8:02 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Alex and Bonnie both in May? that is going to fast


Just clearing out some letters before the big "I" storm, I'm also predicting for this year.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 3617
1188. CybrTeddy
8:02 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Quoting extreme236:


Hey! Yup I think I'm ready. Should be interesting.


What do you think about what the GFS, ECMWF, and the CMC is predicting? Pretty interesting, however I doubt imo we'll see TWO storms before May. I think the Caribbean system bears most watching.. the Caribbean water is equal of that you'd see in July.

Check this out.

TCHP May 18th, 2010.


May 18th, 2009. (featured a sole Category 2 in November)


May 17th, 2008. (Featured 3 Major hurricanes in the Caribbean, Gustav, Omar, and Paloma)


May 18th, 2007. (featured 2 Category 5 Hurricanes within weeks of each other in the Caribbean.. both as you know made landfall at that intensity.)


May 18th, 2006 (featured a sole Category 1 Hurricane, Ernesto)


May 18th, 2005 (you've heard the story before)

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23565
1187. Stormchaser2007
8:02 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Gonna get real busy fast today

Initiation already occurring near Cheyenne OK

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
1186. Floodman
8:01 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101:


there are 2 seasons with storms even earlier

1952 had a storm at the beginning of Feb while 1978 had a storm in January


I thought there was some argument as to whether these may not have been part of the prior season, where the March system was definitely part of 1908
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1184. Hurricanes101
8:01 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
1952 storm



1978 storm

Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7361
1183. lilElla
8:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Why is the Coast Guard turning away the press and well known scientists from documenting what is going on where the oil has come ashore?
Member Since: December 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 273
1182. PcolaDan
8:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Quoting pottery:
post 1155, and other posts on Tar on Florida beaches.
I would be surprised if there were never tar balls on the beaches of the GOM. But just about all of them would go un-noticed unless people are looking hard for them. Or unless you step on one.
The fact that 20 were found on one stretch of coastline should be taken in context. There are hundreds of people out there whose job it is, to find tar balls right now. Seek and thou shall find etc.
Not really surprised that some if not many of them prove to be pollution that is floating about in the oceans of the world, all the time.
This is not to say that major oil may not be approaching, fast........


Actually I've been thinking the same thing. Kind of hoping someone from there would talk about it some. Up here I have never seen tarballs, so even one would be a surprise. And over the years I have been to our beach MANY MANY times.
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1181. Floodman
8:00 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101:


that was in August though right?


Yep!
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1180. Snowlover123
7:59 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Quoting Acemmett90:

its all on the link i just gave you it looks scarier this way though


Looks imposing, but the GFS doesn't develop the Tropical Wave.
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1179. MiamiHurricanes09
7:59 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1178. Hurricanes101
7:58 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Quoting Floodman:
Note the date for this storm...I believe this the proverbial "earliest storm" everyone talks about:



there are 2 seasons with storms even earlier

1952 had a storm at the beginning of Feb while 1978 had a storm in January
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7361
1177. Cavin Rawlins
7:57 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
The hybrid system may eventually be the strongest of the two. Much of the relaible models does not see the SW Caribbean deepening much (minimal TS) due to the presence of upper winds. How long it stays in the extreme SW Caribbean will determine its strength.
Member Since: July 24, 2005 Posts: 407 Comments: 19076
1176. Hurricanes101
7:57 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Quoting Floodman:
BTW...1893, 5 hurricanes in a 7 day span, with 4 simultaneous storsm in the Atlantic basin...4 of the 5 were majors and two of those made CONUS landfall


that was in August though right?
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7361
1175. Floodman
7:56 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Note the date for this storm...I believe this the proverbial "earliest storm" everyone talks about:

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 9922
1173. pottery
7:56 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
post 1155, and other posts on Tar on Florida beaches.
I would be surprised if there were never tar balls on the beaches of the GOM. But just about all of them would go un-noticed unless people are looking hard for them. Or unless you step on one.
The fact that 20 were found on one stretch of coastline should be taken in context. There are hundreds of people out there whose job it is, to find tar balls right now. Seek and thou shall find etc.
Not really surprised that some if not many of them prove to be pollution that is floating about in the oceans of the world, all the time.
This is not to say that major oil may not be approaching, fast........
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24022
1172. Snowlover123
7:55 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
Quoting Acemmett90:
Heres the Low that the gfs may be picking up


Got the link. Thank you, Acemmett90! :o)
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
1170. SAINTHURRIFAN
7:53 PM GMT on May 19, 2010
i think flood a point a lot of people do not realize is the affects a tropical system in the gulf would have on the oil spill. a hurricane as we all know will pick up the seawater in this case mixed with oil and throw it into the inland bays rivers and esctutaires. in my opinion worse case senario would be a storm that took a track like george, through the keys, into the eastern gulf on a nw course to landfall on the north central gulf coast. with the various changes in wind direction with surge and waves would be catostrophic.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 706

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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